THE DON JONES INDEX…

 

GAINS POSTED in GREEN

  LOSSES POSTED in RED

        6/11/18…  15,878,21

          6/4/18…  15,820.57          6/27/13…  15,000.00

      

 

 

(THE DOW JONES INDEX:  6/18/18… 25,316.53; 6/14/18… 24,635.21; 6/27/13… 15,000.00)

 

LESSON for June 11, 2018 – Of THIS, THAT and THEM OTHERS!

 

After blowing off the G-7 (now the G-6 or, perhaps, to be the G-8 someday), President Trump is off to Singapore to meet with a representative commodity of his favorite class of people, these days, a dictator.

Don Joneses, regardless of faction, should wish him well.  The alternative, nuclear war, isn’t pretty.

Meanwhile, there were plenty of other developments that haven’t quite gotten the attention they deserve – and we’re not talking celebrity suicides.  (1) The political primary season is entering its high season, with results last Tuesday and tomorrow that could sway the outcome in November and the ability of Trump to hold at least a numerical (if not ideological) majority in Congress. (2)   Defense Department procurers continue to dither on the crucial JEDI cloud warfighting contracts and the President, having left behind a sextette of angry foreigners, (3) the prospect of a trade war still beckons.

So let’s take them on, briefly, and in order.

Eight states… Alabama, California, Iowa, Mississippi, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico and South Dakota… held their primaries last Tuesday  The grand prize – California - sent 53 Congressional candidates in each party onward to November or away in oblivion, and five more states will h0ld primaries tomorrow.

Democrats are counting on a popular revulsion against the “populist” President and his Wall Street allies among Republican House and Senate members.  In order to block POTUS, they will have to turn at least twenty-one seats in the House and two in the Senate… seemingly an easier task, except that most of the contested seats are held by Democrats, and a few of these dwell in states that flipped over to Trump in 2016.

Based on an averaging of six polls… Cook, Inside Elections, Sabato, New York Times, CNN and Real Clear Politics… eleven Democratic and four Republican seats are at least somewhat competitive.  Eight of these (five red state Democratic incumbents and three Republican) are genuine tossups – and this only because Arizona’s maverick Jeff Flake and Tennessee’s Bob Corker are retiring.  (The other Republican retiree, Utah’s Orrin Hatch, is almost certainly to be replaced by failed Presidential candidate Mitt Romney.)

 

State

PVI[9]

Incumbent

 

 

Challenger(s)

Most
recent
result

Cook
Apr 9,
2018
[10]

I.E.
Apr 20,
2018
[11]

Sabato
May 30,
2018
[12]

NYT
May 25,
2018
[13]

CNN
Apr 9,
2018
[14]

RCP
Apr 18,
2018
[15]

Arizona

R+5

Jeff Flake (R)
(Retiring)

TBD 8/28

49% R

Tossup

Tossup

Tossup

Tossup

Tossup

Tossup

Florida

R+2

Bill Nelson (D)

Rick Scott (R)

55% D

Tossup

Tossup

Tossup

Tossup

Tossup

Tossup

Indiana

R+9

Joe Donnelly (D)

Mike Braun (R)

50% D

Tossup

Tossup

Tossup

Tossup

Tossup

Tossup

Minnesota
(Special)

D+1

Tina Smith (D)

TBD 8/13

53% D

Lean D

Likely D

Likely D

Likely D

Likely D

Likely D

Missouri

R+9

Claire McCaskill (D)

TBD 8/7

55% D

Tossup

Tossup

Tossup

Tossup

Tossup

Tossup

Montana

R+11

Jon Tester (D)

Matt Rosendale (R)

49% D

Likely D

Tilt D

Lean D

Lean D

Lean D

Lean D

Nevada

D+1

Dean Heller (R)

TBD 6/12

46% R

Tossup

Tossup

Tossup

Tossup

Tossup

Tossup

New Jersey

D+7

Bob Menendez (D)

Bob Hugin (R)

59% D

Likely D

Safe D

Likely D

Likely D

Safe D

Likely D

North Dakota

R+16

Heidi Heitkamp (D)

TBD 6/12

50% D

Tossup

Tossup

Tossup

Tossup

Tossup

Tossup

Ohio

R+3

Sherrod Brown (D)

Jim Renacci (R)

51% D

Lean D

Lean D

Lean D

Lean D

Lean D

Lean D

Pennsylvania

EVEN

Bob Casey Jr. (D)

Lou Barletta (R)

54% D

Likely D

Likely D

Likely D

Likely D

Likely D

Likely D

Tennessee

R+14

Bob Corker (R)
(Retiring)

TBD 8/12

65% R

Tossup

Lean R

Lean R

Lean R

Lean R

Tossup

Texas

R+8

Ted Cruz (R)

Beto O’Rourke (D)

57% R

Likely R

Likely R

Likely R

Likely R

Likely R

Lean R

West Virginia

R+20

Joe Manchin (D)

Patrick Morrisey (R

61% D

Tossup

Tossup

Tossup

Tossup

Tossup

Tossup

Wisconsin

EVEN

Tammy Baldwin (D)

TBD 8/14

51% D

Likely D

Tilt D

Lean D

Lean D

Lean D

Likely D

 

Democrats have better prospects in the House, due to an unprecedented number of Republican retirees… some are simply aged out or seeking other offices, but many have just grown sick and tired of dealing with a President whose ideology they may embrace, but whose volatility scares the bejesus out of them.

Of the 435 House seats available, 147 are considered "safe" or "solid" Republican seats by all five of the groups making predictions and 175 are similarly safe Democratic seats. The remaining 113 seats are considered competitive (not "safe" or "solid") by at least one of the five groups making predictions (the above, less the New York Times).  In the case of California, its “jungle primary” lumped all contenders from any party into one race, so it was also possible to gauge at least an inkling of November by tallying up the combined Democratic and Republican votes for all candidates,

District

CPVI [16][17]

Incumbent

Challenger            (or primary To Be Determined)

Most recent
result
[18]

Cook
June 1, 2018[19]

I.E.
May 16, 2018[20]

Sab.
May 29, 2018[21]

CNN
May 9, 2018[22]

RCP
May 25, 2018[23]

 

Arizona 1

R+2

Tom O'Halleran (D)

TBD 8/28

50.7% D

Lean D

Tilt D

Likely D

Lean D

Lean D

 

Arizona 2

R+1

Martha McSally (R) (Retiring)

57.0% R

Lean D (flip)

Tilt D (flip)

Lean D (flip)

Lean D (flip)

Lean D (flip)

 

Arizona 6

R+9

David Schweikert (R)

62.1% R

Likely R

Safe R

Likely R

Likely R

Safe R

 

Arizona 8

R+13

Debbie Lesko (R)

52.6% R

Safe R

Likely R

Safe R

Likely R

Likely R

 

Arizona 9

D+4

Kyrsten Sinema (D) (Retiring)

60.9% D

Likely D

Safe D

Likely D

Likely D

Likely D

 

Arkansas 2

R+7

French Hill (R)

Clarke Tucker (D)

58.4% R

Lean R

Likely R

Likely R

Lean R

Likely R

 

California 4

R+10

Tom McClintock (R)

Jessica Morse (D)

62.7% R

Likely R

Likely R

Likely R

Likely R

Safe R

R +18

California 7

D+3

Ami Bera (D)

Andrew Grant (R)

51.2% D

Likely D

Safe D

Likely D

Likely D

Lean D

D +7

California 10

EVEN

Jeff Denham (R)

Josh Harder (D)

51.7% R

Tossup

Tilt R

Tossup

Lean R

Tossup

R +4

California 21

D+5

David Valadao (R)

T. J. Cox (D)

56.7% R

Lean R

Likely R

Likely R

Likely R

Likely R

R +28

California 22

R+8

Devin Nunes (R)

Andrew Janz (D)

67.6% R

Safe R

Safe R

Likely R

Safe R

Safe R

R +18

California 24

D+7

Salud Carbajal (D)

Justin Fareed (R)

53.4% D

Safe D

Safe D

Likely D

Safe D

Likely D

D +6

California 25

EVEN

Steve Knight (R)

Katie Hill (D)

53.1% R

Tossup

Tilt R

Tossup

Tossup

Tossup

R +6

California 39

EVEN

Ed Royce (R) (Retiring)

Gil Cisneros (D)

Young Kim (R)

57.2% R

Tossup

Tossup

Tossup

Lean D (flip)

Tossup

R +8

California 45

R+3

Mimi Walters (R)

Katie Porter (D)

58.6% R

Lean R

Lean R

Lean R

Lean R

Tossup

R +8

California 48

R+4

Dana Rohrabacher (R)

Hans Kierstead (D)

58.3% R

Tossup

Tilt R

Tossup

Tossup

Tossup

R +6

 

California 49

R+1

Darrell Issa (R) (Retiring)

Mike Levin (D)

Diane Harkey (R)

50.3% R

Tossup

Tossup

Lean D (flip)

Lean D (flip)

Tossup

D +2

California 50

R+11

Duncan D. Hunter (R)

Amar Campa-Najar (D)

63.5% R

Likely R

Likely R

Safe R

Likely R

Likely R

R +27

Colorado 3

R+6

Scott Tipton (R)

TBD 6/26

54.6% R

Safe R

Safe R

Likely R

Safe R

Safe R

 

Colorado 6

D+2

Mike Coffman (R)

50.9% R

Tossup

Tilt R

Tossup

Tossup

Tossup

 

Connecticut 5

D+2

Elizabeth Esty (D) (Retiring)

TBD 8/14

58.0% D

Likely D

Safe D

Likely D

Safe D

Safe D

 

Florida 6

R+7

Ron DeSantis (R) (Retiring)

TBD 8/28

58.6% R

Safe R

Safe R

Likely R

Likely R

Safe R

 

Florida 7

EVEN

Stephanie Murphy (D)

51.5% D

Likely D

Lean D

Likely D

Likely D

Lean D

 

Florida 13

D+2

Charlie Crist (D)

51.9% D

Safe D

Safe D

Likely D

Likely D

Likely D

 

Florida 15

R+6

Dennis A. Ross (R) (Retiring)

59.8% R

Likely R

Safe R

Likely R

Likely R

Safe R

 

Florida 16

R+7

Vern Buchanan (R)

59.8% R

Likely R

Safe R

Likely R

Likely R

Lean R

 

Florida 18

R+5

Brian Mast (R)

53.6% R

Lean R

Safe R

Likely R

Likely R

Likely R

 

Florida 25

R+4

Mario Diaz-Balart (R)

62.4% R

Likely R

Safe R

Likely R

Safe R

Likely R

 

Florida 26

D+6

Carlos Curbelo (R)

53.0% R

Tossup

Tilt R

Tossup

Tossup

Tossup

 

Florida 27

D+5

Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R) (Retiring)

54.9% R

Lean D (flip)

Lean D (flip)

Lean D (flip)

Lean D (flip)

Lean D (flip)

 

Georgia 6

R+8

Karen Handel (R)

Lucy McBath (D)

51.9% R

Lean R

Likely R

Lean R

Likely R

Lean R

 

Georgia 7

R+9

Rob Woodall (R)

Carolyn Bordeaux (D)

60.4% R

Likely R

Likely R

Likely R

Likely R

Likely R

 

Illinois 6

R+2

Peter Roskam (R)

Sean Castem (D)

59.2% R

Tossup

Tilt R

Lean R

Lean R

Tossup

 

Illinois 12

R+5

Mike Bost (R)

Brendan Kelly (D)

54.3% R

Tossup

Lean R

Tossup

Tossup

Tossup

 

Illinois 13

R+3

Rodney Davis (R)

Betsy Dirksen Longrehan (D)

59.7% R

Likely R

Likely R

Likely R

Likely R

Likely R

 

Illinois 14

R+5

Randy Hultgren (R)

Loren Underwood (D)

59.3% R

Lean R

Safe R

Likely R

Lean R

Likely R

 

Indiana 2

R+11

Jackie Walorski (R)

Mel Hall (D)

59.3% R

Likely R

Likely R

Safe R

Likely R

Safe R

 

Indiana 9

R+13

Trey Hollingsworth (R)

Liz Watson (D)

54.1% R

Safe R

Safe R

Safe R

Likely R

Safe R

 

Iowa 1

D+1

Rod Blum (R)

Abby Finkenauer (D)

53.7% R

Tossup

Tossup

Tossup

Tossup

Tossup

 

Iowa 2

D+1

Dave Loebsack (D)

Christopher Peters ®

53.7% D

Safe D

Safe D

Safe D

Safe D

Likely D

 

Iowa 3

R+1

David Young (R)

Cindy Axne (D)

53.5% R

Lean R

Likely R

Lean R

Lean R

Lean R

 

Kansas 2

R+10

Lynn Jenkins (R) (Retiring)

TBD 8/7

60.9% R

Lean R

Lean R

Tossup

Lean R

Tossup

 

Kansas 3

R+4

Kevin Yoder (R)

51.3% R

Lean R

Lean R

Lean R

Lean R

Tossup

 

Kentucky 6

R+9

Andy Barr (R)

Amy McGrath (D)

61.1% R

Lean R

Lean R

Lean R

Lean R

Lean R

 

Maine 2

R+2

Bruce Poliquin (R)

TBD 6/12

54.8% R

Lean R

Lean R

Lean R

Lean R

Lean R

 

Michigan 1

R+9

Jack Bergman (R)

TBD 8/7

55.3% R

Likely R

Safe R

Likely R

Likely R

Safe R

 

Michigan 6

R+4

Fred Upton (R)

58.7% R

Likely R

Likely R

Likely R

Likely R

Safe R

 

Michigan 7

R+7

Tim Walberg (R)

55.1% R

Likely R

Likely R

Likely R

Likely R

Lean R

 

Michigan 8

R+4

Mike Bishop (R)

56.0% R

Lean R

Lean R

Lean R

Tossup

Likely R

 

Michigan 11

R+4

Dave Trott (R) (Retiring)

52.9% R

Tossup

Tossup

Tossup

Lean D (flip)

Tossup

 

Minnesota 1

R+5

Tim Walz (D) (Retiring)

TBD 8/13

50.3% D

Tossup

Tossup

Tossup

Tossup

Tossup

 

Minnesota 2

R+2

Jason Lewis (R)

47.0% R

Tossup

Tossup

Tossup

Tossup

Tossup

 

Minnesota 3

D+1

Erik Paulsen (R)

56.7% R

Tossup

Lean R

Tossup

Tossup

Tossup

 

Minnesota 7

R+12

Collin Peterson (D)

52.5% D

Likely D

Likely D

Likely D

Likely D

Lean D

 

Minnesota 8

R+4

Rick Nolan (D) (Retiring)

50.2% D

Tossup

Tossup

Tossup

Tossup

Tossup

 

Missouri 2

R+8

Ann Wagner (R)

TBD 8/7

58.5% R

Likely R

Safe R

Likely R

Safe R

Safe R

 

Montana at-large

R+11

Greg Gianforte (R)

Kathleen Williams (D)

49.7% R

Likely R

Likely R

Lean R

Likely R

Lean R

 

Nebraska 2

R+4

Don Bacon (R)

Kara Eastman (D)

48.9% R

Lean R

Tilt R

Lean R

Tossup

Lean R

 

Nevada 3

R+2

Jacky Rosen (D) (Retiring)

TBD 6/12

47.2% D

Lean D

Tilt D

Lean D

Lean D

Tossup

 

Nevada 4

D+3

Ruben Kihuen (D) (Retiring)

48.5% D

Likely D

Likely D

Lean D

Lean D

Lean D

 

New Hampshire 1

R+2

Carol Shea-Porter (D) (Retiring)

TBD 9/11

44.3% D

Lean D

Tilt D

Lean D

Lean D

Tossup

 

New Hampshire 2

D+2

Ann McLane Kuster (D)

49.8% D

Likely D

Safe D

Safe D

Likely D

Likely D

 

New Jersey 2

R+1

Frank LoBiondo (R) (Retiring)

Jeff van Drew (D)

59.2% R

Lean D (flip)

Tilt D (flip)

Lean D (flip)

Lean D (flip)

Lean D (flip)

 

New Jersey 3

R+2

Tom MacArthur (R)

Andy Kim (D)

59.3% R

Lean R

Likely R

Likely R

Lean R

Safe R

 

New Jersey 5

R+3

Josh Gottheimer (D)

John McCann (R)

51.1% D

Likely D

Lean D

Likely D

Likely D

Lean D

 

New Jersey 7

R+3

Leonard Lance (R)

Tom Malinowski (D)

54.1% R

Tossup

Tilt R

Tossup

Tossup

Tossup

 

New Jersey 11

R+3

Rodney Frelinghuysen (R) (Retiring)

Mikey Sherrill (D)

58.0% R

Tossup

Tilt D (flip)

Tossup

Tossup

Tossup

 

New Mexico 2

R+6

Steve Pearce (R) (Retiring)

Xochitl Torres Small (D) Yvette Harrell (R)

62.7% R

Lean R

Lean R

Likely R

Lean R

Lean R

 

New York 1

R+5

Lee Zeldin (R)

TBD 6/26

58.2% R

Likely R

Safe R

Lean R

Likely R

Lean R

 

New York 11

R+3

Dan Donovan (R)

61.5% R

Lean R

Likely R

Lean R

Lean R

Lean R

 

New York 18

R+1

Sean Patrick Maloney (D)

55.6% D

Safe D

Safe D

Safe D

Safe D

Likely D

 

New York 19

R+2

John Faso (R)

54.0% R

Tossup

Tilt R

Tossup

Tossup

Tossup

 

New York 22

R+6

Claudia Tenney (R)

46.5% R

Tossup

Tilt R

Tossup

Tossup

Tossup

 

New York 23

R+6

Tom Reed (R)

57.6% R

Safe R

Safe R

Likely R

Safe R

Safe R

 

New York 24

D+3

John Katko (R)

60.5% R

Likely R

Likely R

Likely R

Likely R

Likely R

 

North Carolina 2

R+7

George Holding (R)

Linda Coleman (D)

56.7% R

Likely R

Safe R

Likely R

Likely R

Safe R

 

North Carolina 8

R+8

Richard Hudson (R)

Frank McNeill (D)

58.8% R

Likely R

Safe R

Likely R

Safe R

Safe R

 

North Carolina 9

R+8

Robert Pittenger (R) (Lost renomination)

Dan McCready (D)

Mark Harris (R)

58.2% R

Lean R

Tilt R

Tossup

Tossup

Likely R

 

North Carolina 13

R+6

Ted Budd (R)

Kathy Manning (D)

56.1% R

Lean R

Likely R

Lean R

Lean R

Likely R

 

Ohio 1

R+5

Steve Chabot (R)

Aftab Pureval (D)

59.2% R

Lean R

Likely R

Lean R

Lean R

Lean R

 

Ohio 7

R+12

Bob Gibbs (R)

Ken Harbaugh (D)

64.0% R

Safe R

Safe R

Likely R

Likely R

Safe R

 

Ohio 10

R+4

Mike Turner (R)

Theresa Gaspar (D)

64.1% R

Likely R

Safe R

Likely R

Safe R

Safe R

 

Ohio 12

R+7

Vacant

Danny O’Conner (D)

Troy Balderson (R)

66.6% R

Tossup