THE DON JONES INDEX…

 

GAINS POSTED in GREEN

LOSSES POSTED in RED

 3/11/20…  14,816.97

   3/4/20…  14,827.43

    6/27/13…  15,000.00

 

 

(THE DOW JONES INDEX:  3/11/20…23,553.22; 3/4/20…27,090.86; 6/27/13… 15,000.00)

 

 

LESSON for March 11, 2020 – CRAZY SICK ASIANS!

 

Last August, Yanzhong Huang of the Council on Foreign Relations, reminded of a hearing on the United States’ growing reliance on China's pharmaceutical products by the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, was reminded of spirited discussion described in Bob Woodward’s book, Fear: Trump in the White House. “In the discussion, Gary Cohn, then chief economic advisor to President Trump, argued against a trade war with China by invoking a Department of Commerce study that found that 97 percent of all antibiotics in the United States came from China. “If you’re the Chinese and you want to really just destroy us, just stop sending us antibiotics,” Cohn said.

Lo and behold: among the myriad small disasters that make up the huge disaster which is the coronavirus pandemic (yes, its official now, the World Health Organization says so) is the flailing incompetence of both the public and private sectors to produce enough test kits for the virus – despite the President’s Oprah-like ebullience at the great job his vice president’s men were doing (“You get a test!  You get a test!  You get a test!)  We’re not talking about a vaccine, or even a variant on Robitussin to assuage the symptoms… it’s a simple swab, sent off to a lab, analyzed and the findings returned to the patient and/or doctor. 

Experts estimate we need a few million test kits to provide adequate protection for Don Jones and the family.

Instead, we’ve got a couple of thousand.

 

So the slow-motion disaster of the plague… athletic competitions in empty stadiums, St. Patrick’s Day parades cancelled, Purell hoarding, the list goes on… is rapidly becoming an overall disaster.

Take the economy – please!

Why, less than a year ago, a CBS News poll declared that “Seven in 10 Americans say the economy is in good shape, including a quarter who say it is very good. Nearly all Republicans and most Democrats and independents share this view.”

Well, that prospect is circling the drain, now, almost as fast as the Sanders campaign with the Dow, as of today’s close reclining at 23,553.22 after a sharp loss Monday and a rebound yesterday.  And neither the political nor economic meltdowns are primordial among the tastes and topics of the moment, it’s becoming existential to Don Jones… the empty streets of Italy, SoKo, Japan and upon innumerable plague ships cruising to nowhere… as the lethality of the coronavirus outpaces that of the Spanish Flu a century ago and its toll ratchets up (towards/into) the millions now, billions, perhaps to come. 

In short, it’s the virus, stupid.  But it’s also politics and the economy because… number one: people all over the world are looking to government to Do Something about the plague; number two: Doing Something will require money – lots of money that neither governments, the private sector or people suffering layoffs and cutbacks whether they are sick or not, can pony up and number three: The crises is exposing the pettiness, corruption and plain incompetence that exists worldwide, instead of just in the good ol’ USA.

(Case in point: faced with the longevity and lethality of the plague, Russia and Saudi Arabia have decided to launch a gas and oil war, which has sent prices crashing and leaves little available funding against the day when CV comes knockin’ in Moscow and Mecca.) 

And even if they could it now seems that drugs… not the bad party drugs but the good pro- and antibiotics and vaccines and pills that can’t prevent or cure the CV (not for at least a year, the experts sigh) but at least counteract some of the symptoms and, one hopes, lethality… can’t be found on shelves also empty of face masks and Purell because most of them are made in… yup, Mr. Cohn!... China.

The CFR’s Huang cited not only the threat of monopolization, but quality control.   

In order to address the growing security and safety concerns about Chinese-made pharmaceuticals, Huang even addressed some who suggested that the United States switch to India as an alternative API supplier. “However, doing so would be no different from rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic,” inasmuch as active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) and chemical intermediates from China “are 35 to 40 percent cheaper than Indian ones.

“If we are dependent on China for thousands of ingredients and raw materials to make our medicine,” Huang warned, “China could use this dependence as a weapon against us.”

Those crazy, sick Asians are out to destroy us all… not with nuclear bombs nor computer malware, not even by calling in our long outstanding and  swelling debts,  but with a little teensy bug, so teensy that its size is measured in kilobases (27 to 34, according to the Journal of Virology... and exactly how big a kilobase is is a secret so closely held and guarded by the doctors that no ordinary mortal may decipher the medspeak of “positive-sense single-stranded RNA genomes” and “helical symmetries” but they must be small, indeed, and also “fearful”, if Mr. Blake’s contentions in re symmetries be believed.

And how did this come to pass?

Bacteria and viruses have been with us since come coughing cavemen infected the whole tribe with whatever it was that caused whole populations to disappear ten, fifty, a hundred thousand years ago.  People catch bugs.  The Plague of Justinian in 540 AD, the Black Death of 1350 AD, the New World Holocaust ferried cross the pond by friendly Europeans since the arrival of Columbus; the teeny-tiny Spanish Flu microbes killed more human beings than the 17 million soldiers and civilians killed during WW1… three times as many according to the BBC.

If the CV has attained pandemic status, as the WHO contends, matching or exceeding the Spanish Flu in number of its victims and severity of its assault, it would be the first outbreak of plague upon a fully technological and interrelated world as we know today, and the political and economic consequences would be significantly greater than those of 1918, when communication was primarily by penmanship with occasional deployment of contraptions like the typewriter and (for the proud and fortunate few) the radio and telephone.

Globalization has not made the production/distribution stream existing in both capitalist, Communist or some command-oriented synthesis more flexible or efficient… in fact, the consistent downwards pushing and shoving of expenses… primarily labor… have resulted in jobless, hollowed-out Western communities swollen with angry, pauperized “populists” whose lives and prospects are worse than those of their parents, whose were worse than those of their grandparents.  The production of goods than can be counted as wealth have been spirited away to the new Asian powerhouses – America and most rich (for the time being), white (also) nations are primarily takers (parasites gnawing away a little here, a little there and packaging their thefts as “financial transactions”).

This system came into being post-World War II when commodities were in demand and a few simple sectors could be outsourced… flimsy toys that broke down, cheap clothing that fell apart in the wash, objects that bore the derisive provenance “Made in Japan”.  But by the time that Reaganism and Thatcherism greenlighted the mass migration of manufacturing (and to the poorhouse or the prisons with their victims), the stuff coming out of Japan was pretty good, and not so cheap either.  No problem.  China, India and South Korea were reaching out of the quicksand of un-development and into that status of under- and there were plenty of desperate people seeking work at a few cents the hour (plus a modest gratuity to the local bosses).  And if the bosses got too bossy with the round-eyes, there were other options… Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand and finally, as historical qualms gave way to expediency, you could order up a gross of American flags from Vietnam or hop a pedophile cruise to Cambodia.

Life was pretty good, too, for the movers and shakers, fakers and the takers, not so good for the makers.  But when… and where… has it ever been different?

Still and all, economic crises frequently inspire revolutions – peaceful or not.

The economist nicknamed “Dr. Doom” for his dire, but accurate, predictions says the coronavirus outbreak will rock the Chinese economy and send shockwaves to the U.S. and rest of the world, according to Fox Business – a nominal supporter of the President.

“The economic damage done to China implies that China cannot grow more than 4 percent this year," Nouriel Roubini, CEO at Roubini Macro Associates, said on “WSJ at Large” with Gerry Baker.

Shrinking from 6 percent to 4 percent, however, means China's growth is reduced by a third, Roubini said.

"China accounts for about two-thirds of global growth," he added, "so the spillover with trade, confidence, business” can be significant

 

One might think that Dow Jones volatility would anger investors and potentially lead to sterner political solutions.  One would be wrong.

Business... big business and retirees worried about their savings retreated beneath their security blnkets – peeking out now and again to inspect the lay of the land, and wince.

After the political and economic chaos of the first week in March (as neo-Socialist Bernie Sanders levelled his opponents and the first alarming dispatches out of Wuhan, China, augured that the CV was of a stuff more sturdy than consignment to the “those crazy furriners” bin in the back pages of print media and the closing minute of televised news with people in masks scuttling here and there through exotic gourmet markets) the Dow had abandoned its pursuit of the 30,000 summit and fallen back to 27,000 last Wednesday, with a slight rally for the week, while the Don… suffering not only the economic but the psychological loss of the CV spreading to Italy by plague ships crashed on Monday (on news of the Russia/Saudi kerfuffle), recovered Tuesday (on Trump’s promise of tax cuts for the rich) and then crashed again today.

From Ford to Google to JPMorgan Chase, a growing number of major companies are banning employees from foreign travel, nixing large meetings, testing out work-from-home contingency plans and canceling crucial industry events — all despite assurances from the White House that containment of the virus is "airtight."

The drastic quarantine measures spreading from Wuhan to all of China have, while apparently successful in slowing or even reversing the spread of the CV, more or less killed off the enormous manufacturing sector – evidenced here by all of the empty ports.  Container ship traffic at the sprawling Los Angeles/Long Beach docks was down by forty percent due to the so-called “economic contagion” now taking effect.

“(The coronavirus) is more of an economic disaster than a health disaster, stated Isaac Larien, a toymaker… perhaps more accuratly a toy toycoon, since about 85% of all toys were imported from China up until last week.  Now, factories are reportedly running at forty percent of output.

A shoe salesman from the Footwear Distributors and Retailers of America predicted that coming shortages of shoes “will lead to price increases”.  And a panel of talk show experts predicted that global Gross Domestic Product (GDP), presently at plus 2.9 percent for the year and the United States GDP, somewhat lower at around two percent would both slide to 1.5 percent in the near future.

CBS analyst Jill Schlesinger counseled Americans not to spend their money on “stuff”.

But if “stuff” like facemasks and Purell for the present, swells from shoes and toys and backscratchers Made in China to automobiles, armaments and high-tech doodads Made in America, well… America is in a spot of trouble itself.

 

The Chinese unemployment rate was 3.62% as of December, 2019 and its GDP was also stable – through the end of 2019.  But the one index that has clearly been affected by the coronavirus is inflation.  China's annual inflation rate jumped to 5.4% in January 2020 from 4.5% in December, above market consensus of 4.9%. (Trading Economics) This was the highest inflation rate since October 2011 due to rising pork prices, stronger demand during the Lunar New Year holiday and the ongoing coronavirus outbreak.

CNBC reported that the rise in consumer prices continues a recent acceleration for inflation in China, according to the country's National Bureau of Statistics. Inflation hit 3% in September and then broke above 4% in November.

The bureau said in a statement that the increased inflation in January was due to the Lunar New Year holiday, the coronavirus outbreak and a lower price base from last year, according to Reuters.

January's jump was also fueled by a rise in pork prices due to the Asian swine fever that has decimated hog populations in China.

To the contrary, the Bueau of Labor Statistics will probably record a significant decline in American inflation, due to falling oil prices engendered by less domestic and international travel and the Saudi/Russia gas war.  But as time and disease march on, what Mr. Stephanopolous called “a ripple effect into the real economy” will send other indices plummeting (or in the case of some, like unemployment, rising).

A week ago, worldstopexports.com (See Attachment Five (a) listed the top ten Chinese exports to the United States, updating a 2018 report from Sourcify.com. (Five (b))

The top four exports (and seven of the top ten) fall under the category of “supply chain” manufacture – components that can delay or destroy the productive capacities of American firms.

Investment giant Goldman Sachs has even warned that U.S. corporations' earnings growth for the year could be zero percent.

The slew of policy updates and revised — or abandoned — financial forecasts for 2020 has put corporate America at odds with an administration that characterizes criticism of its virus response as a "hoax" and dismissed the worst week on Wall Street in more than a decade as an "overreaction."

 

There’s already some indication that the CV is impacting sectors other than the low-end, throwaway Chinese “stuff” because American manufacturers and technogarchs have long been diverting a few pennies into their own pockets by squeezing the workers and creatively sidestepping such regulations as still exist in this Age of Trump in that certain products which contain a high… too high, some allege… proportion of cheap foreign components can still be marketed as Made in America.  The catch-all terminology for this is the “supply chain” which consists of thousands of little parts of a large whole, which can be impacted or even break down if only one little gadget is either defective or unavailable.

(The exemplary instance of a “supply chain” epic fail occurred when the Challenger rocket blew up and killed seven astronauts.  The cause was a malfunctioning O-ring, a specialized washer which separates the hot rocket from the flammable fuel and costs about 25¢.  If NASA had sprung for, oh, fifty cents for a really good O-ring, there would have no disaster, no concomitant lost decade while the scientists and bureaucrats tried to affix blame and deny the obvious that it’s sometimes OK, even necessary, to splurge.)

 

And, in the worst case?

 

It’s unlikely, but not beyond belief, that panic and Americans’ abiding faith in conspiracy theories will engender an epidemic of hoarding essentials… food, water, guns, what have you

A worst case scenario is always on hand from our President’s favorite conspiracy journal, InfoWars (best of luck to guru Alex Jones, busted in Austin for drunk driving last night).  It’s not just the CV, there’s a whole panoply of plagues – some Biblical (locusts), others historical (volcanoes).  (See Attachment Six)

 

Then again, hoaxes may be less dangerous than plain old self-serving balderdash  Instead, as health and safety officials advise families to stock up their food pantries, Trump's top economic adviser, Larry Kudlow, told investors they should stock up on equities.

 

 

And this week, it’s been a game of numbers  https://cc.bingj.com/cache.aspx?q=coronavirus+statistics&d=4790426276925955&mkt=en-US&setlang=en-US&w=0iUYgmfILxeCbx7WC70VSMP1d9dzkWwA

 

 

 

         USA

CASE  DEAD

     WORLD

CASE  DEAD

EVENTS

THURSDAY

296          11

98,425  3,387

The Dow starts cratering.  Airlines are particularly hard hit.

FRIDAY

359          12

102,050  3,494

Seattle called a “ghost town” as MS and Linked-In shut down.  WHO reports cases levelling off in China.

SATURDAY

457          15

106,099   3,599

Cancelled events, empty stadiums and ships.  As more nursing home residents die in Seattle, Pres. Trump calls Gov. Inslee (D-Wa.) “a snake”.

SUNDAY

573          19

114,299  4,025

As a quarter of Italians quarantined soccer matches played in empty stadiums.

MONDAY

563          22

126,204  4,627

When the Dow hits the “tripwire” 7% loss, trading is suspended

TUESDAY

624          26

more

Death ship patients sent to military quarantine.  Trump proposes his usual solution: tax cuts for the rich,

TODAY

1080        31

more

The CV spreads to Iceland.  India closes its borders.

 

 

 

Some sectors of the American economy, as reflected in the Dow Jones Index are already starting to show signs of stress, at the least.

 

There is, of course, some good news for Don Jones – especially if he doesn’t have a retirement account.  Gas price are down. 

As noted Monday’s Investor Place, “For those near a computer or smartphone on Sunday, and most of us are at least attached to the latter, the ominous day that today turned out to be was forecast amid reports that oil prices would swoon (they did) after Russia and Saudi Arabia couldn’t make nice and decided to enter a price war.

“The long and short of it is Saudi Arabia telling Russia, “You want to play chicken? Alright, let’s go.” That’s the message when the kingdom says it’s cutting prices on oil it send to China while promising to flood the market with increased output.”

Bargains are available all over the transportation sector… if one wants to risk being slapped into quarantine by itchy foreign governments.  Domestic public events, however, are disappearing.  Today’s toll included the major St. Paddy’s marches in Boston and Savannah, Ga, the Coachella and South by Southwest festivals, talk show, game show and sports audiences and… the biggest peach on the poisoned tree, the Olympics.

 

‘Here is what we know for sure,” concluded a National Geographic article in October, 2005.  One day a new pandemic will come, and one day it will pass.  And then the killer strain, tamed by our immune systems and the passage of time, will fade into the background of nuisance flus.”

Now that the extent and the lethality of the epidemic has become “pandemic” (as WHO declared today), we may have a situation in which… as Sunday news troll George Stephanopolous warned… the CV creates “a ripple effect into the real economy,” “real” being the sort of American-made stuff sold in Costco and not found on the mask and Purell aisles as the workers who make it get sick or get afraid of getting sick and stay at home. 

There are some off cravings – duly noted by psychiatrists.  Not only is the hoarding class stocking up on face masks and Purell, they’re buying out supplies of toilet paper against the Apocalypse,  And the vast (in numbers, if not wages) service industries... who’ll want to go out into the bad new world to buy a bucket when they can stay at home, safe, and order one of the mushrooming grub delivery services where sub-min giggers go from door to doordash with their cargo of fried chicken and the plague.  Some intellectual, fiduciary and accounting functions can be covered by telecommuting, but not turning a wrench to turn a nut onto the screw on the hood release of a 2020 F-150, nor can it sponge-bathe the elderly in a nursing home.  Not to say that it can’t and won’t and sooner than Mr. Jones thinks, but not for the present.

Another long term side effect of the CV might well be that the managerial class decides to step up the robotization of manufacture on both the trivial and complicated processes – thus making superfluous both the Chinese and American workforce.  The question then becomes: who will be able to buy the stuff that the managers turn out, and with what?

Monday’s Washpost deduced that, by Republicans argue that by giving a break to corporations especially those in industries affected by the virus (that’s the “targeted” part), we can prop up the economy across the board. They might want to throw in some broader cuts as well. (Trump has floated a payroll tax cut (Fox News, 3.10.20), though it’s unclear how much support that would have among Republicans on Capitol Hill.) “But the basic idea is that if we just pour some tax cuts around like Robitussin, everything will improve.”

Counter-proposals from Pelosi and Schumer, on the other hand, are aimed not at companies but at individuals — especially those most directly affected by the virus. It isn’t their final word; should a genuine recession loom, they’ll almost certainly propose broad-based stimulus to boost the economy, too. 

Dead consumers don’t buy Legos.

 

So it shouldn’t have come as a surprise that the “mini-Tuesday” primaries in Michigan and five other states found Americans clutching Uncle Joe Biden to their bosoms like a favorite childhood teddy bear.  Of course, the zombie parade of losers that threw in with Joe over the week probably influenced some, just as Amy Klobuchar’s endorsement put him over the top in Minnesota and Beto O’Rourke’s exhumation may have helped win Texas.

Perhaps some sort of answer will bubble up out of the election to come, but the prospects are not good.  In Michigan and Missouri, Idaho and Mississippi and a few other places (except North Dakota) calm cool and collected Uncle Joe bested Angry Bernie, prompting the pollsters and gamblers to award him a 99% chance of winning the election.

The CV sucked all the air out of the primaries, and America dispatched its Bern the way a kindly nurse ends the suffering of elderly patients by smothering them with a pillow or the vet gives a lethal injection to an ancient and beloved family dog,

 

Uncle Joe, the poster boy for the politics of a quiet and decent (if not uplifting) past, might be encouraged if the moral and economic effects of his victory in November can push the reactionary timetable back, back… back past the Clintonian NAFTA and Mideast adventures, past Vietnam (but not Selma nor the noonday of colonialism) and all the way back to the 1950s, where and when he grew up.  (The bros... Joe, Bernie and Bloomberg are not boomers but, rather part of that small slice of war babies as is now termed the “silent generation” and Trump, himself, lurks on the frontier,)

Maybe we could and should have a President, and a policy, of Americans keeping their mouths shut and Twitter fingers off the keyboard and, instead, get back to making things again.  If that is a consequence of the coronavirus, then we may well consider it a blessing… a warning delivered just in time before we ride entirely off the rails of progress and into a parasitic wasteland where neither the private nor public sector can still create wealth, but only foster indolence and corruption, financed by private and public debt that can not long be deferred, no matter how many rate cuts Trump and Mister Mnuchin decree,

But, as the WashPost asked, we should ask a couple of key questions about whatever deal comes to pass. “Who precisely does this benefit? Do they actually need it? How much is going to wealthy people and corporations who already got an enormous tax cut in 2017? Is there reason to believe it will have the effect its advocates claim?”

If the best answer Republicans can offer to those questions is “Tax cuts are magic!” then we might want to be skeptical of what they’re proposing. As we always should.

At least the epidemic... now pandemic... is pinching a few of the venerable perks enjoyed by the one percenters.  NBC News repors that growing number of major companies is banning employees from foreign travel, nixing large meetings, testing out work-from-home contingency plans and canceling crucial industry events (like the spring convention in Vegas). 

The slew of policy updates and revised — or abandoned — financial forecasts for 2020 has put corporate America at odds with an administration that characterizes criticism of its virus response as a "hoax" and dismissed the worst week on Wall Street in more than a decade as an "overreaction."

Investment giant Goldman Sachs has even warned that U.S. corporations' earnings growth for the year could be zero percent.

 

And Don Jones?  Curiously, despite the plague and the stock market crash (which some wild-eyed goldbugs are claiming will lead to a depression), he only lost a few points.  This can be attributable to a leap in employment (there is no category for the temporarily laid off or work-at-home workers) and a sharp decrease in our negative balance of payments – again, China might not be buying much from America, but it is selling us even less.

Actually, human beings are behaving in a most exemplary manner (the few oafs fighting in the aisles of Costco over hand sanitizers and toilet paper aside). 

 

 

 

      THE DON JONES INDEX

 

                CHART of CATEGORIES w/VALUE ADDED to EQUAL BASELINE of 15,000

 

                                (REFLECTING… approximately… DOW JONES INDEX of June 27, 2013)

 

                                                          See a further explanation of categories here

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

                                                 ECONOMIC INDICES (60%)

 

 

DON JONES’ PERSONAL ECONOMIC INDEX (45% of TOTAL INDEX POINTS)

 

 

CATEGORY

VALUE

BASE

 

RESULTS

 

SCORE

SCORE

      OUR SOURCE(S) and COMMENTS

 

  INCOME

(24%)

6/27/13

LAST

CHANGE

NEXT

3/4/20

 3/4/20

SOURCE

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Wages (hourly, per capita)

9%

1350 pts.

3/4/20

+0.38%

3/18/20

1,352.31

1,357.41

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-states/wages  23.96

 

Median Income (yearly)

4%

600

3/4/20

+0.06%

3/18/20

603.71

604.07

debtclock.org/    33,843

 

Unempl. (BLS – in millions

4%

600

3/4/20

 -2.78%

3/18/20

583.32

599.99

http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000000   3.5

 

Official (DC – in millions)

2%

300

3/4/20

-0.21%

3/18/20

297.46

298.07

http://www.usdebtclock.org/ 5,826

 

Unofficl. (DC – in millions)

2%

300

3/4/20

-0.25%

3/18/20

248.61

249.23

http://www.usdebtclock.org/    12,356

 

Workforce Participation

Number (in millions)

Percentage (DC)

2%

300

3/4/20

 

+0.02%

+0.006%

3/18/20

301.24

301.26

In 158,897  Out 94,875 Total: 253,772

http://www.usdebtclock.org/  62.61

 

WP Percentage (ycharts)*

1%

150

2/12/20

+0.32%

3/18/20

150.23

150.23

http://ycharts.com/indicators/labor_force_participation_rate  63.40 nc

 

OUTGO

(15%)

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total Inflation

7%

1050

2/26/20

+0.1%

3/18/20

1046.85

1046.85

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm          +0.1 nc

 

Food

2%

300

2/26/20

+0.2%

3/18/20

298.80

298.80

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm     +0.2

 

Gasoline

2%

300

2/26/20

 -1.6%

3/18/20

296.27

296.27

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm     -1.6

 

Medical Costs

2%

300

2/26/20

+0.3%

3/18/20

297.90

297.90

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm     +0.3

 

Shelter

2%

300

2/26/20

+0.4%

3/18/20

298.20

298.20

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm     +0.4

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

WEALTH

(6%)

 

 

Dow Jones Index

2%

300

3//20

- 13.06%

3/18/20

288.68

250.98

https://quotes.wsj.com/index/DJIA  23,553.22

 

 

Sales (homes)

Valuation (homes)

1%

1%

150

150

2/19/20

- 1.44%

- 2.99%

3/18/20

   153.07

147.24

   153.07

147.24

http://www.realtor.org/research-and-statistics

     Sales (M):  5.46 Valuations (K):  266.3

 

Debt (Personal)

2%

300

3/4/20

+0.08%

3/18/20

292.23

291.96

http://www.usdebtclock.org/    63,147

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

             AMERICAN ECONOMIC INDEX (15% of TOTAL INDEX POINTS)

 

 

NATIONAL

(10%)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Revenues (in trillions)

2%

300

3/4/20

+0.06%

3/18/20

301.30

301.47

debtclock.org/       3,521

 

Expenditures (in tr.)

2%

300

3/4/20

+0.07%

3/18/20

298.68

298.47

debtclock.org/       4,585

 

National Debt (tr.)

3%

450

3/4/20

+0.23%

3/18/20

444.95

444.47

http://www.usdebtclock.org/    23,455

 

Aggregate Debt (tr.)

3%

450

3/4/20

- 0.09%

3/18/20

443.56

443.15

http://www.usdebtclock.org/    75,984

 

 

GLOBAL

 

(5%)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Foreign Debt (tr.)

2%

300

3/4/20

+0.13%

3/18/20

 305.46

    305.05

http://www.usdebtclock.org/   6,778

 

Exports (in billions – bl.)

1%

150

3/4/20

+0.48%

3/18/20

151.08

150.36

https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/Press-Release/  208.6

 

Imports (bl.)

1%

150

3/4/20

 -1.81%

3/18/20

148.71

151.40

https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/Press-Release/  253.9

 

Trade Deficit (bl.)

1%

150

3/4/20

  -7.95%

3/18/20

150.98

162.98

https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/Press-Release/  45.3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

SOCIAL INDICES (40%)  

 

 

ACTS of MAN

(12%)

 

 

 

  World Peace

3%

450

3/4/20

   -0.1%

3/18/20

435.71

435.27

NoKo, jealous of all the attention being paid to China, launches three “projectiles” into the water, scaring fish.

 

 

Terrorism

2%

300

3/4/20

  -0.1%

3/18/20

299.05

299.35

Fingers crossed as Taliban and ISIS march (or sneak) up to the brink of war.

 

 

Politics

3%

450

3/4/20

  +0.1%

3/18/20

457.49

457.95

Trump fires Mick Mulvaney and, for good measure, sends him to Belfast.  His 4th C.O.S. described as a “loyalist”.  Trump also endorses a football coach against his former AyGee Sessions.  With 7 Congresspersons now in quarantine, Dems promote paid sick leave.  Bill Clinton blames “anxieties” for his affair with Monica.

 

 

Economics

3%

450

3/4/20

    -0.8%

3/18/20

442.34

438.80

Facebook and Amazon shut their Seattle offices, Apple tells 12,000 employees to work from home.  Mortgage interest follows the Dow and the Fed down.

 

 

Crime

1%

150

3/4/20

  +0.3%

3/18/20

300.29

299.39

6 shot at DC barbershop include a 5 year old.  CV scammers and gougers pop up - $1,000 bottles of Purell.  250K New York casino robbery.  Idiot busted for printing nude photos of children at the local Walgreens.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

ACTS of GOD

(6%)

(with, in some cases, a little… or lots of… help from men, and a few women)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Environment/Weather

3%

450

3/4/20

  +0.5%

3/18/20

449.08

451.33

Spring finally springs in the east – New York hits 72, cherry blossoms out in Washington.  Dry and deadly West Coast streak ends with first Snn Francisco rain in 37 days.

 

 

Natural/Unnatural Disaster

3%

450

3/4/20

    -0.1%

3/18/20

440.16

440.60

Wildfires migrate to Florida and Oklahoma, closing highways.  Woman rescued from Swiss avalanche.  Northern blizzards cause 13 car pileup,

 

 

 

LIFESTYLE/JUSTICE INDEX   (15%)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Science, Tech, Education

4%

600

3/4/20

  +0.3%

3/18/20

602.93

604.74

Dinosaur DNA discovered in Montana.  NASA Mars rover named “Persistance”, scheduled for July takeoff.  Musk vows Space X will go tourist next year.

 

 

Equality (econ./social)

4%

600

3/4/20

 +0.1%

3/18/20

602.99

602.39

Sunday is International Women’s Day, but gender and racial minorities and the LGBTQ folks lament all their heroes dropping out of the Democratic primaries, leaving two old white men standing.  Harvey Weinstein sentencing today, R. Kelly trial in October.

 

 

Health

4%

600

3/4/20

  -1.1%

3/18/20

577.80

571.44

The good: CV: cases falling in China.  The bad: They’re rising everywhere else.  Plague ship finally docks in S.F. and passengers reloatec to military quarantine.  Bill Gates promises that he’ll invent a home self-test.

 

Freedom and Justice

3%

450

3/4/20

  -0.3%

3/18/20

451.80

450.44

Heated SCOTUS abortion fight.  Black man executed as accessory to cop killing in Alabama,  UAW President dragged off on corruption charges in the midst of Michigan primary.  Lawyers swarming at first case of divorcing parents of CV kid fighting over who gets to sue the St. Louis Health Department.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

MISCELLANEOUS and TRANSIENT INDEX        (7%)

 

 

 

 

 

Cultural incidents

3%

450

3/4/20

nc

3/18/20

454.08

454.08

CVs next casuality – the new James Bond movie.  Harry and Meghan start their final “royal tour”.  Japan mulls pushing Olympics back to 2022.  Alex Trebek celebrates surving cancer for another year,  RIP jazzman McCoy Tyner.

 

 

Miscellaneous incidents

4%

450

3/4/20

 -0.2%

3/18/20

450.55

449.65

Purell hoarders buy out supplies.  Cult mom of missing kids extradited but still won’t talk.  Publishers cancel books by sexist Woody Allen.  US depots ex- concentration camp guard.  RIP to Rosalind Walter, the real Rosie the Riveter.  Students fear that CV will ruin spring break.  Dayton students riot after college closes and they’re kicked out of the dorms with no where to go,

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Don Jones Index for the week of March 3rd through March 10th, 2020 was DOWN 10.46 points.

 

The Don Jones Index is sponsored by the Coalition for a New Consensus: retired Congressman and Independent Presidential candidate Jack “Catfish” Parnell, Chairman; Brian Doohan, Administrator/Editor.  The CNC denies, emphatically, allegations that the organization, as well as any of its officers (including former Congressman Parnell, environmentalist/America-Firster Austin Tillerman and cosmetics CEO Rayna Finch) and references to Parnell’s works, “Entropy and Renaissance” and “The Coming Kill-Off” are fictitious or, at best, mere pawns in the web-serial “Black Helicopters” – and promise swift, effective legal action against parties promulgating this and/or other such slanders.

Comments, complaints, donations (especially SUPERPAC donations) always welcome at feedme@generisis.com or: speak@donjonesindex.com

 

 

 

 

BACK

 

See further indicators at Economist https://www.economist.com/economic-and inancialndicators/2019/02/02/economic-data-commodities-and-markets    


 

Attachment One – from various

 

TIMELINE – Debates

March 15, 2020

CNN/Univision Democratic Primary Debate

Watch On: CNN
Location: Phoenix, Arizona
Sponsors: CNN, Univision, CHC BOLD
Moderators: TBD
Candidates: The two old white guys

April, 2020

Twelfth Democratic Primary Debate

Watch On: TBD
Location: TBD
Sponsors: TBD
Moderators: TBD
Candidates: TOWG

 

April 1st – first quarter 2020 fundraising results due.

 

TIMELINE – Primaries

 

·         March 17: March 17 primaries

 

Arizona  67 delegates       

Florida  219 delegates

Illinois   155 delegates

Ohio       136 delegates

 

·         March 24: Georgia primary

·         March 29: Puerto Rico primary

 

April 2020

·         April 4: April 4 primaries

·         April 7: Wisconsin primary

·         April 28: April 28 primaries

·         April 29: Voting in the Oregon primary begins.[339]

 

May 2020

·         May 2: May 2 primaries

·         May 5: Indiana primary

·         May 12: May 12 primaries

·         May 19: May 19 primaries

 

June 2020

·         June 2: June 2 primaries

·         June 6: Virgin Islands caucuses

 

July 2020

·         July 13–16: Democratic National Convention, in which delegates of the Democratic Party will choose the party's nominees for president and vice president in the general election

 

 

Attachment Three – from Election Central

2020 Presidential Debate Schedule

The dates and venues have been announced for the 2020 Presidential debates between President Donald Trump and the eventual Democratic nominee. The date for the Vice Presidential debate between Vice President Mike Pence and the Democratic Vice Presidential nominee has also been announced. Note the broadcast times and channels are identical for the Presidential debates and the Vice Presidential debate.

Tickets – Tickets for each debate are controlled by the hosting university and are extremely limited since the debates are primarily produced for television. The majority of tickets are distributed to host university students and faculty through a lottery system. See this page for all available ticketing details.

Live Streaming – All the major news networks will offer a free live stream as will YouTube and Twitter.

TV Channels – Each debate will be broadcast live on C-SPAN, ABC, CBS, FOX, and NBC, as well as all cable news channels including CNN, Fox News, Fox Business Network, and MSNBC among others.

Time – The debates will air from 9 pm to 10:30 pm ET (8 pm – 9:30 pm CT, 7 pm – 8:30 pm MT, 6 pm – 7:30 pm PT)

2020 Presidential Debates

Tuesday, September 29, 2020
First Presidential Debate
University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN

Wednesday, October 7, 2020
Vice Presidential Debate
The University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT

Thursday, October 15, 2020
Second Presidential Debate
University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI

Thursday, October 22, 2020
Third Presidential Debate
Belmont University, Nashville, TN

Additional details such as moderators and the specific format of each debate will be announced at a later time.

Related
2020 Democratic Primary Debate Schedule

Attachment Fourfrom From Huffpost

 

Will Third Parties Debate with Clinton and Trump?

08/05/2016 12:41 am ET Updated Aug 05, 2017

 

If Jill Stein (Green) and Gary Johnson (Libertarian) can make it into the debates, 2016 may be the defining historical moment for the third parties.

Bernie supporters who fall into the category of #NeverHillaryNeverTrump welcome a third party into the national debate. A great deal of the Vermont Senator’s policies echo in Jill Stein’s platform, whereas Johnson attracts Republicans who have no interest in Trump but supported Sanders.

The Commission on Presidential Debates (CPD), a private organization, controls every aspect of the debates, from who the participants will be, to what will be discussed.

To qualify for the CPD debates, a participant must gain ballot access in enough states to achieve the 270 electoral votes necessary to win and demonstrate “a level of support of at least 15 percent of the national electorate, as determined by five selected national public opinion polling organizations, using the average of those organizations’ most recent publicly-reported results.”

Both Green and Libertarian parties have reached the first hurdle of having enough ballot access to obtain 270 electoral votes.

But the five public opinion polling organizations are chosen by the CPD, and polls don’t ask participants the same questions for all parties. In the latest CNN poll conducted just after the DNC convention, they asked 1,003 people for their opinion of the two major party candidates and their running mates, but didn’t ask for their opinion of the third party candidates.

“We’d like to get your overall opinion of some people in the news. As I read each name, please say if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of these people — or if you have never heard of them.” -CNN poll (only asked about Clinton, Kaine, Trump, and Pence)

The greatest barrier to knowledge of third party candidates is the mainstream media’s lack of coverage. (What happened first: the media’s coverage of Donald Trump or Trump’s popularity?)

Trump said of third party participation in the debates, “I’d rather have head to head and right now, they’re not getting any numbers. She’s (Jill Stein) doing better than he (Gary Johnson) is, but right now in some polls she’s actually not doing badly.”

“Polls show that a majority of voters want to see additional candidates in the debates,” said John Andrews, Senior Advisor to Jill Stein. “The CPD is not running the debates to help voters understand their choices - they are running them to eliminate competition. It’s time that we had inclusive debates.”

The CPD could shut out third party candidates by choosing which polls they use for their criteria. The CPD says they “will identify the selected polling organizations well in advance of the time the criteria are applied.”

One way to bring the third parties to October/November debates is to put pressure on the Commission on Presidential Debates. Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson founded a group called Our America Initiative in 2009 to demand the CPD allow participation by any presidential candidate with enough ballot access to win the election. By this standard, only two other candidates qualify: Jill Stein and Gary Johnson. Our America Initiative is collecting signatures on this petition which they could use to show the networks how many people want to watch such a debate.

The Green Party offers their own petition called Open The Debates, utilizing a hashtag #OpentheDebates to make the case that America is ready for a fair debate among the parties.

 

Result:  Stein was x-cluded from the debates.  Johnson participated once, and failed to answer a softball question about Syria, prospects for a return of either are, at the moment, dim.

 

Attachment 5 (a) – from worldstopexports.com

 

The People’s Republic of China shipped $2.494 trillion worth of goods around the globe in 2018. That dollar amount reflects a 6.5% gain since 2014 and a 10.2% increase from 2017 to 2018.

 

In addition, China furnished an estimated $266.8 billion worth of international services during 2018 encompassing about $42.3 billion from transport-related and $39.5 billion for travel-related services. The focus of this article is on exported goods.

 

Given China’s population of 1.385 billion people, its total $2.494 trillion in 2018 exported products translates to about $1,800 for every resident in the East Asian economic powerhouse.

China’s Top 10 Exports

        Top 10

        Advantages

        Opportunities

        Companies

Top 10

The following export product groups categorize the highest dollar value in Chinese global shipments during 2018. Also shown is the percentage share each export category represents in terms of overall exports from China.

1.      Electrical machinery, equipment: US$664.4 billion (26.6% of total exports)

2.      Machinery including computers: $430 billion (17.2%)