|
LESSON
for September 23, 2020 – STATE of the STATES!
The October surprise
arrived early this year… not that there won’t be another, or many more,
apocalyptic developments before November third… but the sudden (tho’ expected) death of Ruth Bader Ginsburg on Friday and
the prospect for an inviolate conservative (nay, alt-right) majority for
decades to come looms larger than the weather, the riots… almost as large as
the plague.
Ginsburg died after
a long battle with pancreatic cancer.
Despite his stalling of the Obama appointment of Merrick Garland ten
months before the end of his term, Senate Majority leader Mitch McConnell swore,
before Ginsburg’s body had even cooled, that the President would make the
“right” kind of appointment and the Senate would rush to confirm, perhaps
even before the election, certainly by the time a lame Donald Duck leaves
office on January 4th.
Who would ultimately
approve such a midnight appointment if the Senate concurs. Why… the Supremes (with or without the new
justice).
Ginsburg’s death
arrived at the best of all possible times… for Donald Trump. While most politicians opted for a weekend respite
of tributes and kindly words, leaving the serious pressure to begin rising
Monday, the media, per usual, showed no such discretion. But confirmation of her passing did not
take place until after the evening news and the late night talkshow mouths, almost exclusively liberal, were muzzled
by reason of their practice of taking Fridays (as well as Mondays) off.
Before the corpse
was in the ground at Arlington, the President declared he had a Big, Big List
of 45 potential replacements which, within hours, shrank to three after Djonald Unashamed agreed with the mob that the next
Supreme ought to be a woman. Maybe not
Diana Ross, nor Oprah or Ivanka – more like the
three finalists who made the cut, all of whom could have found work as auto
show models a decade ago and are still… to use a sexist term… lookers. Looker lawyers. Then POTUS pared the field down to
finalists… Amy Coney Barrett, from Indiana, and Florida’s Barbara Lagoa. In keeping with the game show circus around
the replacements, one will be nominated, the other will hear… “You’re fired!” (Unless and until the 6-3 court somehow
throws the election to Trump, whereupon any of the surviving three liberals
might kick the bucket… Steven Breyer through age, Justices Kagan and/or
Sotomayor through “misadventure”.)
None had better
drink tea offered by strange, smiling strangers for the next four years.
It could have been
worse. Mister Trump punted out of
bounds, blew the opportunity like the Atlanta Falcons watching the Cowboys’
onside kick wobble past them, Sunday last, until the Dallas team picked it up
and let their field kicker win the game.
What he should have done… and still may do, depending on the calendar…
well, take a look below.
The stakes… already
elevated… could not be higher. A post-RBG
SCOTUS will almost assuredly repeal Roe v. Wade and may even confirm a
Federal statute that would criminalize abortions, whether individual states
wished so or not. And then they would
move on to outlawing contraception.
Gay marriage would be flushed down the toilet; numerous employee
protections against bigotry (to call them “discrimination” is a slur against
common decency and conscientious decision making) would be repealed… pro
(monkey) business decisions would be confirmed and expanded. Science, including the war on plague and
climate change, would be shelved in favor of Biblical superstition; marijuana
possession would be recriminalized as felonious, earning a kid with a joint
ten or even twenty years’ hard time, police brutality lawsuits would be
summarily dismissed and prosecution of the half-century war on labor rights
would be accelerated. Confederate
monuments would be raised again, gun prohibitions erased, free speech (while
restored to some) and the free press ,ay well be
shackled by libel and slander laws similar to those in the U.K. (at best) or
in Russia (at worst).
If Mitchy can get the job done before January 4th, we are
likely to see a manic two months as ex-President Trump rests his tweeting
fingers and starts churning out Executive Orders that sad sack sucker Joe
Biden will find impossible to rescind.
Trump has stated that he will make his
choice on Friday or Saturday – which would have the side benefit of stealing
such thunder as might resound during Ginsburg’s funeral. The last words of the justice, reportedly,
were: “My fervent wish is that there will be no appointment before the
election.” Trump’s alleged response,
more or less accusing the granddaughter who transcribed this bequest as a
dirty little liar in the pay of mastermind Joe Biden, the Deep State or some
even darker potentate, was: “Rot in Hell, Notorious RBG!”
Critical as it would appear, November’s Presidential
election is only half the battle.
Discounting the state and local races; discounting, also, the Congress
(which seems firmly in the hands, or hooves, of Democrats barring some
hitherto unexpected incident) control of the 33 Senatorial seats up for grabs
is paramount to the agendas of each of the contending factions.
Consider a Biden victory on November third. Not a squeaker (that would likely induce a
lengthy ballot counting and re-counting marathon, followed by a waterfall of
lawyers pushing the day of decision further and further back into November,
into December, possibly 2021 – racing the eventual production and
distribution of an effective vaccine), but not a blowout either, as Uncle
Joe’s coattails would carry a Democratic majority into the upper house, and
enable him to enact his Socialist agenda, if such exists. A close and competitive, but unpreventable
victory. Do the liberals break out the
white wine while MAGA’s whites whine and whine and whine (and lock and load)?
Hardly. If
the Senate remains under the thumb of majority leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky), our previous four years of insanity will be followed
by at least two of stagnation… a calm as may prove a balm to the weary
Joneses of that great and muddled middle of the bird between hard left and
right wings. But the progressive
agenda (pardon the cussing) will be stymied as the die-hard Trump loyalists
manage to block critical elements and promises of the Democratic activists…
no Green New Deal (or even Green normalcy), no War on Poverty, no healthcare
for all. We will kick back to 2015 and
plenty of us will be satisfied with that.
Or what if the incumbent makes fools of the
pollsters again (through his own wicked genius, a surfeit of blunders from
the Biden – Harris ticket or, most likely, a well-organized and diabolical
assault on the electoral process itself, resulting in massive cheating, voter
intimidation… or disgust… and the collusion of Chief Justice Roberts on the
outcome – if and when it’s dropped in the laps of the Supremes, whether they
like it or not) or simply diabolical intervention. But the Republican Senate majority, lacking
the cynical self-serving (and the funding) of the Chief Executive, is
overturned… likely as a consequence of local issues, whose malign influence can not be blamed on either Q-Anon or the Deep State.
Give the Democrats a close, but distinct advantage…
52-47-1 (that rascal, Bernie!) or 53-45-2 (another independent climbs the
greasy poll, somewhere) and the result, again, will be gridlock. There is no way in Hell or Honolulu that
the donkeys will post a veto-proof majority, so they will legislate and consense, an isolated but angry Djonald
Trump will veto anything and everything… even to the extent of pulling
Federal funding for plague protection, infrastructure and unemployment relief
from states, cities and counties that voted against him. And that will mean more lawyers lawyering and
cashing their paychecks on a
increasingly insolvent Federal treasury, more leaks, more tweets and more
outraged partisans on either side blowing off the media to write their own
books, detailing their own vision for America… as will not be realized. Or simply blowing off each
others’ heads, period.
So the Senatorial races, while perhaps not as
important as that on the top of the ticket, will determine the direction (or
drift) as will whirl America around in a Sargasso Sea of bitterness for at
least two years while Russia (victors in the down-ballot races) and China
(perhaps satisfied with the ascension of their champion who, at least, might
give them a break on soybean tariffs).
Hence this little detour from the main tent of the
electoral circus to a sideshow with all of the appurtenances of the Really
Big Shew… bearded ladies, strong men, trained bears and jackals, dwarves,
clowns and Senators performing high wire tricks and being shot out of
cannons.
And peeking and peering out of every one of those
tattered, threadbare tents, sweaty fingers flying as their tweets soar into
the twitterverse… more lawyers!
David Blaine will likely feel gratified by these
campaigns as he soars above the plaguescape on his
fifty two balloons. Don Jones, maybe
not.
So let’s take a closer look at the chosen
thirty-three (plus aspirants for the seats of retiring Senators) and their
challengers, and assess the likelihood of victory, defeat or stalemate
To prepare the chart below, we consulted numerous
national local soothsayers as contributed to Wikipedia, the Cook think tank…
which merely uttered a yes (probably yes, maybe yes), no (same) or “tossup”
designation to the races… the Council for a Livable World (which is “A
nonpartisan nonprofit promoting policies to reduce and eventually eliminate
nuclear weapons, and to minimize the risk of war through lobbying and by
helping elect and support Members of Congress who share our goals”).
(We’re not going to do this for Congress. It would take a bolt from below for
Republicans to recapture the House, and while there have been plenty of
surprising surprises over the last four years, this would be jumping the
shark while, on the table, the debates, the SCOTUS Senate hearings, Q-Anon,
Ellen’s on-set tantrums, campaign financial disclosures… or the hiding of
same… the Breonna Taylor cop indictments (dragged on past Tuesday), some more
polls, some riots and wildfires and maybe enough hurricanes to exhaust even
the Greek alphabet.)
DJI’s SENATORIAL STATE by STATE LAST ROUNDUP…
|
State
(with Wikilinks to
individual summaries)
|
Incumbent
|
Margin (2014)
|
Challenger
|
Comments, polls and professional intelligence
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Alabama
|
Doug
Jones (D)
|
50.0% D
(2017 special)
|
Tommy Tuberville (R)
|
Jones's win was in part due to sexual assault
allegations against Moore during the special election. Most analysts expect
the seat to flip back to GOP control as Jones faces much stronger
opposition from Tuberville. Despite some competitive polling, many in the
Democratic establishment see Jones's seat as a lost cause.
Cook – Lean Republican
CLW: The most vulnerable Democratic incumbent in
2020 is Sen. Doug Jones (D). In 2017, Jones won a stunning upset victory
50%-48% over former state Supreme Court Justice Roy Moore (R) in this
usually solid Republican state. Sen. Jeff Sessions (R) comeback
attempt was smacked down by Tommy Tuberville (R), who is now favored over
Sen. Doug Jones (D), but don’t count out Jones just yet.
|
|
Alaska
|
Dan Sullivan
(R)
|
48.0% R
|
Al
Gross (D)
|
On July 2, 2019, Al Gross, an orthopedic surgeon and
fisherman, declared his candidacy as an Independent.[97] He
went on to win the nomination.
Cook – Likely Republican
CLW: Orthopedic surgeon Al Gross, an
independent who is seeking the Democratic nomination to face Sen. Dan
Sullivan (R) and has unified the Democratic Party behind his campaign. In
late April, Sabato’s Crystal Ball upgraded the
race from Sure Republican to Likely Republican.
|
|
Arizona
|
Martha McSally
(R)
|
Appointed
(2019)
|
Mark
Kelly (D)
|
Incumbent Republican Martha McSally was
appointed to the late John McCain's
seat two months after losing the 2018 Arizona
U.S. Senate election to Democrat Kyrsten Sinema.
Her Democratic opponent, astronaut Mark Kelly (who
is married to former representative Gabrielle Giffords),
has raised significantly more money and generally leads her by 5-15 points
in the polling. McSally is also suffering from low approval ratings due to
her strong allegiance to Trump, who is unpopular in Arizona despite winning
the state by 3.5 points in 2016.
Cook – Lean Democratic
Martha McSally (R), after losing a close election
in 2018 to Sen. Kyrsten Sinema
(D) by 50%-48%, was appointed to take the seat of late Sen. John McCain
(R), and has to run again in 2020. Mark Kelly (D), astronaut and husband of
former Rep. Gabrielle Giffords, is her
challenger. Kelly is leading in fundraising and the polls.
|
|
Arkansas
|
Tom Cotton
(R)
|
56.5% R
|
Ricky Harrington (L)
|
No other Democrats filed within the filing
deadline.
Christian missionary Ricky Dale Harrington, Jr.,
is running as a Libertarian,[107] and
progressive activist Dan Whitfield is running as an independent.[108] Whitfield
has been unable to qualify for the ballot, pending an appeal to the United States
Court of Appeals for the Eighth Circuit.[109]
Cook – Solid Republican
|
|
Colorado
|
Cory Gardner (R)
(See below)
|
48.2% R
|
John Hickenlooper (D)
|
Gardner is Colorado's only Republican statewide
officeholder, and the once purple state has trended increasingly Democratic
since Gardner's narrow win in 2014.
Gardner also has low approval ratings due to his strong allegiance to
President Donald Trump, who is unpopular in Colorado.
Cook – Toss-up
(DJI – Solid Democratic)
CLW: Sen. Cory Gardner (R) is considered one of
the most vulnerable Republicans in the 2020 election. In 2018, Democrats
won the governorship in Colorado and picked up one House seat, and Hillary
Clinton carried the state in 2016. In August, former Governor John
Hickenlooper dropped his candidacy for President and announced he will run
for this Senate seat. Hickenlooper was hurt by self-inflicted wounds, but
survived the primary 59%-41%. This remains one of the best opportunities for
a Democratic pickup.
His Tuesday decision to vote for whatever female
American His President fingers as the next SCOTUS… even if it’s Stormy
Daniels, makes his return to the private sector even more likely (and
probably more lucrative).
|
|
Delaware
|
Chris Coons (D)
|
55.8% D
|
|
Cook – Solid Democratic
|
|
Georgia
(a)
|
David Perdue
(R)
|
52.9% R
|
Jon Ossoff (D)
|
The incumbent of the regular election,
Republican David Perdue, will face Jon Ossoff, who won name recognition after
losing the most expensive
House race in U.S. history.
Cook – Toss-up
(DJI – Lean Republican) CLW: The state has been moving towards a
purple status; Stacey Abrams (D) lost her 2018 race for governor in a very
close contest by only 50%-49%. On June 9, former House candidate Jon Ossoff (D) defeated two major foes for the Democratic
nomination in a June 9 primary and avoided an August 11 runoff. Polls show
a close general election against Sen. Davie Purdue (R).
|
|
Georgia (b)
|
Kelly Loeffler (R)
|
Appointed
(2020)
|
Jungle Primary!
|
A "jungle primary"
will be held November 3, 2020; a candidate earning a majority of votes cast
will win, but if no candidate wins a majority, a runoff election between the top two
finishers will be held January 5, 2021.[117] The
winner of the special election will serve until the expiration of Isakson's
term on January 3, 2023.
As in the
regular election, there is a crowded field of Democratic candidates, but
there is also a bitter contest on the Republican side between
incumbent Kelly Loeffler, a
businesswoman appointed to the seat after Isakson's resignation, and Doug Collins, a well-known U.S.
representative. Collins remains close to Loeffler
in the polls due to allegations of insider trading against
Loeffler.
Cook – Lean Republican
CLW: Kelly Loeffler (R),
a businesswoman and co-owner of the Atlanta Dream in the Women’s National
Basketball Association, has been named Sen. Johnny Isakson’s (R)
replacement by Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp. Loeffler
will hold the seat until the November 2020 special election, creating two
elections then. She is challenged by Rep. Doug Collins (R), Matt Lieberman
(D), and Rev. Dr. Raphael Warnock (D) in an
open primary. If no candidate wins 50% of the vote in November, there will
be a runoff vote in January, which could mean Senate control is in doubt
long after the November election.
|
|
Idaho
|
James Risch (R)
|
65.3% R
|
Paulette Jordan (D)
|
Former gubernatorial nominee and former Coeur d’Alene Tribal
Councilwoman Paulette Jordan won the Democratic
nomination in a primary against retired cop Jim Vandermaas.
Cook – Lean Republican
|
|
Illinois
|
Dick Durbin
(D)
|
53.5% D
|
Mark Curran
(R)
|
Mark Curran, who served as sheriff of Lake County from 2006 to 2018, won the
Republican primary with 41.55% of the vote and will face Durbin in the
general election.[131]
Cook – Solid Democratic
|
|
Iowa
|
Joni
Ernst (R)
|
52.1% R
|
Theresa Greenfield (D)
|
Greenfield, a first-time candidate backed by the
Democratic establishment, defeated admiral Michael Franken, attorney Kimberly Graham,
and businessman Eddie Mauro in the primary. She and Ernst are polling
neck-and-neck in the general election, but Greenfield lacks name
recognition, despite raising more money than Ernst.
Cook – Toss-up
(DJI – Lean Republican)
CLW: Iowa Sen. Joni Ernst (R) is running for
reelection. National Democrats, including the Democratic Senatorial
Campaign Committee and Emily’s List, have rallied around real estate
executive and former congressional candidate Theresa Greenfield (D), who
won her June 2 primary handily. Ernst is considered a narrow favorite.
|
|
Kansas
|
Roger Marshall (R)
|
53.1% R
|
Barbara Bollier (D)
|
Four-term Republican Pat Roberts is
retiring and will not run for reelection. U.S. representative Roger Marshall and former Republican
turned Democratic state senator Barbara Bollier won their primaries and will
face off in the general election.
Cook – Lean Republican
Incumbent Sen. Pat Roberts (R) will retire after
this term, his fourth. The state has not elected a Democratic Senator since
1932, and although a Democrat captured the governorship in 2018,
Republicans had been favored to hold the seat. Prospects for the
Democratic candidate state senator Barbara Bollier,
a former Republican, have picked up. Her opponent is U.S. Rep. Roger
Marshall (R) after a very bitter Republican primary.
|
|
Kentucky
|
Mitch McConnell (R)
|
56.2% R
|
Amy McGrath
(D)
|
Incumbent Republican Senator Mitch McConnell,
who has been Senate Majority Leader since 2015
and senator from Kentucky since 1985, is running for reelection to a
seventh term. He faces the Democratic nominee, U.S. Marine fighter
pilot Amy McGrath, and Libertarian Brad Barron.
Cook – Solid Republican
CLW: Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R)
surmounted a tough challenge in 2014, 56%-41%. But he is facing a difficult
election because of his close connection to President Trump and his
lukewarm ratings in the state. . Former fighter pilot and House candidate
Amy McGrath (D) had key endorsements, a
bucketful of money and the momentum, until a few weeks before the primary
when Democratic opponent Charles Booker suddenly caught fire, with
newspaper backing, his own key endorsements and national attention. McGrath
survived, but barely 45%-43%. She was wounded by the primary, but has the
resources and time to make it a close general election.
|
|
Louisiana
|
Bill
Cassidy (R)
|
55.9% R
|
Adrian Perkins
(D)
|
The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee has
endorsed Shreveport mayor Adrian Perkins.[162]
A Louisiana primary (a form of jungle primary)
will be held November 3; if no candidate wins a majority of the vote in the
primary, a runoff election will be held.
Cook – Solid Republican
CLW: In July, Shreveport Mayor Adrian Perkins
launched a campaign against Republican Sen. Bill Cassidy, and was
immediately endorsed by the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.
|
|
Maine
|
Susan Collins
(R)
|
68.5% R
|
Sara
Gideon (D)
|
Considered one of the most liberal Republicans,
her vote against impeaching Trump has made this race very competitive. State House
speaker Sara Gideon has raised over three times as
much money as Collins.
Cook – Toss-up
(DJI – Lean Democrat) CLW: Sen. Susan Collins (R) has been a highly
popular incumbent in the state, but alienated many moderate voters with some
votes, particularly to confirm Judge Kavanaugh.
In 2018, Democrats picked up the governorship from a retiring Republican
and won both House seats in the state. In late June, state House Speaker
Sara Gideon’s jumped into the race, and immediately was endorsed by the
Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee and EMILY’s List. Gideon easily
won her primary, has produced strong fundraising numbers and is now in a toss up race.
|
|
Massachusetts
|
Ed
Markey (D)
|
61.9% D
|
Kevin O’Connor (R)
|
Joe Kennedy III,
four-term U.S. representative for Massachusetts's Fourth District and
grandson of former U.S. senator and U.S. attorney general Robert F. Kennedy, unsuccessfully
challenged Markey for the Democratic nomination.[169]
Noted conspiracy theorist Shiva Ayyadurai,
an independent candidate for U.S. Senate in 2018,
unsuccessfully ran against attorney Kevin O'Connor for the Republican
nomination.[170][171]
On August 24, 2020, perennial candidate Vermin Supreme launched
a write-in campaign for the Libertarian nomination.
Cook – Solid Democratic
CLW: Sen. Edward Markey (D) easily turned back the
primary challenge from Rep. Joseph Kennedy III (D) 55%-45%.
|
|
Michigan
|
Gary
Peters (D)
|
54.6% D
|
John
James (R)
|
James came unexpectedly close to unseating
Michigan's other Democratic senator, Debbie Stabenow,
in 2018.
Stabenow is a longtime senator whose name recognition Peters lacks, but
Republicans are growing more unpopular in Michigan after the state narrowly
voted for Trump in 2016, then switched back to Democrats in all statewide
races in 2018. Peters generally leads James by 8-12 points in the polls.
Cook – Leans Democratic
CLW: Army veteran John James (R), who lost in 2018
to Sen. Debbie Stabenow, is challenging Democratic incumbent Gary Peters.
James lost by a fairly close 52%-46% to Stabnow,
and raised $12 million for his race. Peters is one of only two Democratic
incumbents at all vulnerable, but he appears to have surged into a solid
although not unbeatable lead.
|
|
Minnesota
|
Tina
Smith (D)
|
53.0% D
(2018 special)
|
Jason
Lewis (R)
|
Incumbent Democrat Tina Smith was
appointed to the U.S. Senate to replace Al Franken in
2018 after serving as lieutenant governor, and won a special
election later in 2018 to serve the remainder of Franken's term. On August
11, she won the Democratic nomination to serve a full term.
Former congressman Jason Lewis is the Republican
nominee, having defeated minor candidates Cynthia Gail, John Berman, Bob
Carney and James Reibestein in the primary
election.
Cook – Solid Democratic
CLW: Sen. Tina Smith (D), appointed to replace
Sen. Al Franken, won in 2018 by 53%-42% over former state senator Karen Housley for the last two years of Franken’s term. Smith
faces another election this year for a full six-year term. Jason Lewis, who
served as U.S. representative for one term before being ousted by Rep.
Angie Craig in 2018, is running against Sen. Smith.
|
|
Mississippi
|
Cindy Hyde-Smith (R)
|
53.6% R
(2018 special)
|
Mike
Espy (D)
|
Hyde-Smith won the November 2018
special election to fill the remainder of Thad Cochran's
term, which ends in January 2021. Hyde-Smith is running for a full term.
She was unopposed in the Republican primary.
Former U.S. secretary of agriculture and 2018 Senate
candidate Mike
Espy won the Democratic primary with 93.1% of the vote.
Cook – Solid Republican
CLW: Democrat Mike Espy, a former Congressman and
Secretary of Agriculture, who held Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith to a
54%-46% win for the last two years of Sen. Thad Cochran’s (R) seat, is
running against her again. Hyde-Smith is the overwhelming favorite.
|
|
Montana
|
Steve Daines (R)
|
57.9% R
|
Steve Bullock
(D)
|
Daines's seat is
now competitive due to Bullock's last-minute entry. Bullock leads Daines by single digits in the most recent polling and
has also raised more money than Daines. But
Montana is expected to be safely Republican in the presidential election,
meaning that Bullock is relying on Montana's history of ticket splitting,
as he did in 2016 when he was reelected to a
second gubernatorial term by 4 points despite Trump winning the state by 20
points.
Cook – Toss-up (DJI – Lean Democrat) CLW: In
March 2020, popular Gov. Steve Bullock (D) made a late entry into the
contest. Incumbent Sen. Steve Daines (R) is still
favored, but this is likely to be a close contest, with some polls showing
Bullock in the lead.
|
|
Nebraska
|
Ben Sasse (R)
|
64.5% R
|
Chris Janicek (D)
|
Sasse
defeated businessman and former Lancaster County Republican Party
chair Matt Innis in the Republican primary with 75.2% of the vote.
Businessman and 2018 U.S.
Senate candidate Chris Janicek won the Democratic
primary with 30.7% of the vote, defeating six other candidates.
Cook – Solid Republican
|
|
New Hampshire
|
Jeanne Shaheen (D)
|
51.5% D
|
Corky Messner (R)
|
Two-term Democrat Jeanne Shaheen was narrowly reelected in 2014.
She is seeking a third term.
Cook – Solid Democratic
CLW: Sen. Jeanne Shaheen
(D) will is the overwhelming favorite over lawyer Corky Messner
(R), who won a September primary.
|
|
New Jersey
|
Cory Booker
(D)
|
55.8% D
|
Rik Mehta (R)
|
The party ultimately nominated pharmacist, Georgetown University law professor,
and attorney Rik Mehta.
Green Party candidate Madelyn Hoffman and two
independent candidates will also appear on the general election ballot.
Cook – Solid Democratic
|
|
New Mexico
(open seat)
|
Ben Ray Lujan (D)
|
55.6% D
|
Mark Ronchetti (R)
|
Two-term Democrat Tom Udall is
the only incumbent Democratic U.S. senator retiring in 2020.[194]
U.S. representative Ben Ray Luján[195] was
unopposed for the Democratic nomination.
Among Republicans, former U.S. Interior Department
official Gavin Clarkson and executive director for the New Mexico Alliance
for Life Elisa Martinez ran. They lost in the primary to former KRQE chief
meteorologist Mark Ronchetti.
Cook – Solid Democratic
CLW: Sen. Tom Udall (D) has announced his
retirement at the end of this term. While Democrats have dominated
elections in recent years, Republicans are still competitive. Rep.
Ben Ray Luján (D) is the Democratic candidate and
the clear favorite.
|
|
North Carolina
|
Thom
Tillis (R)
|
48.8% R
|
Cal Cunningham
(D)
|
Tillis has grown unpopular among both centrist and
conservative Republicans due to his inconsistent support of Trump. He also
suffers from low name recognition, and North Carolina is trending more
purple, electing a Democratic governor in 2016. Tillis will face Democrat Cal Cunningham in
the general election. Cunningham leads slightly in the polls.
Cook – Toss-up
(DJI – Lean Democrat) CLW: Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC), who alienated
President Trump and now is his best friend, is running for re-election.
Former Democratic state Sen. Cal Cunningham won the contested Democratic
primary and is running even in polls and fundraising.
|
|
Oklahoma
|
James Inhofe
(R)
|
68.0% R
|
Abby Broyles (D)
|
Democrats in the race included attorney Abby Broyles,
perennial candidate Sheila Bilyeu, 2018 5th congressional district candidate
Elysabeth Britt, and R.O. Joe Cassity
Jr. Broyles won the nomination.
Libertarian candidate Robert Murphy and two
Independents will also appear on the general election ballot.
Oklahoma is one of the most solidly Republican
states and Inhofe is expected to be reelected with ease.
Cook – Solid Republican
|
|
Oregon
|
Jeff Merkley (D)
|
55.7% D
|
Jo Rae Perkins
(R)
|
2014 U.S. Senate and 2018 U.S. House
candidate Jo Rae Perkins is the Republican
nominee, defeating three other candidates with 49.29% of the vote. She is a
supporter of the QAnon conspiracy
theory.[203]
Ibrahim Taher will also
be on the general election ballot, representing the Pacific Green Party[204] and
the Oregon Progressive Party. Gary Dye will
represent the Libertarian Party.
Cook – Solid Democratic
|
|
Rhode Island
|
Jack
Reed (D)
|
70.6% D
|
Allen
Waters (R)
|
Four-term Democrat Jack Reed was easily reelected in
2014. He is seeking a fifth term and was unopposed in the Democratic
primary.[
Investment consultant Allen Waters was unopposed
for the Republican nomination.
Cook – Solid Democratic
|
|
South Carolina
|
Lindsey Graham
(R)
|
55.3% R
|
Jaime Harrison
(D)
|
After his primary opponents dropped out,
former South Carolina Democratic Party chairman Jaime Harrison was
unopposed for the Democratic nomination.
The Constitution Party will also field a candidate
for the general election.
Cook – Lean Republican
CLW: Sen. Lindsey Graham (R) has gone from Trump
opponent in 2016 to Trump critic to Trump ally. Democrats have rallied
around former South Carolina Democratic Party Chair Jaime Harrison, former
top aide to Rep. Jim Clyburn (D). The Cook Report has upgraded Harrison’s
chances after a terrific fundraising first quarter of 2020 and some polls
show a close race.
|
|
South Dakota
|
Mike Rounds
(R)
|
50.4% R
|
Dan Ahlers (D)
|
Republican Mike Rounds was
elected in 2014 after serving two terms as governor of South Dakota. He faced a
primary challenge from state representative Scyller Borglum.[206]
Former South Dakota state representative Dan Ahlers was unopposed in the Democratic
primary.
Cook – Solid Republican
|
|
Tennessee
(open seat)
|
Bill Hagerty (R)
|
61.9% R
|
Marquita Bradshaw
(D)
|
James Mackler, an Iraq War veteran
and Nashville attorney,
ran for the Democratic nomination with support from the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee[ but
was upset in the primary by environmental activist Marquita Bradshaw of Memphis.
Nine Independent candidates will also appear on
the general election ballot.
Cook – Solid Republican
Tennessee Republican Sen. Lamar Alexander, who has
served since 2003, announced his retirement at the end of this term. His
replacement is likely to be a Republican; In 2018, Democrats thought they
had a chance to win a Senate seat in this state, but ex-governor Phil Bredesen (D) won only 44% of the vote against then-Rep.
Marsha Blackburn (R). Attorney and Iraq War Army veteran James Mackler (D), who ran in 2018 before dropping out when Bredesen entered the race, is running. Former
Ambassador to Japan Bill Hagerty is favored to
win the Republican nomination and the election.
|
|
Texas
|
John Cornyn (R)
|
61.6% R
|
M. J. Hegar (D)
|
|