the DON JONES INDEX…

 

 

GAINS POSTED in GREEN

LOSSES POSTED in RED

 

  9/10/22...      14,903.37

    9/3/22...      14,907.62

   6/27/13…     15,000.00

 

 

(THE DOW JONES INDEX:  9/17/22… 32,151.71; 9/10/22… 32,151.71; 6/27/13… 15,000.00)

 

 

LESSON for September 17, 2022 – “BEAUTY and the BEAST!”

 

The world, all week, paid tribute to QE2.

Other crises came and went or lingered... relegrated to the background.  A crippling rail strike – settled.  The Russian invasion of Ukraine – turning into a disaster for Sad Vlad.  The plague.  Inflation.  Recession.  R. Kelly.

Last week’s Lesson reported that Prince-become-King Charles III “returns with Queen Consort (not Queen) Camilla from Balmoral to London to address the nation and world from Buckingham Palace.  He and Princess Anne were with the Queen at the end... grandsons William and Harry arrived too late.  Prince Andrew was... somewhere.  There will be ten days of mourning but the actual coronation is not expected to occur until the spring or summer of next year.

For the British, it was a Lost Weekend of memories and regrets – for Americans too, especially of a certain age, it was also a time for thinking back (perhaps because thinking forward would be... not necessarily bad, but different.

“World leaders, celebrities and tabloid triflers pitch(ed) in their tuppence... Mark Phillips of CBS said she was “Queen of the World”; author and “Royal Expert” Tina Brown said she was “above politics” and “ready for Death”.  Various foreigners hailed her as a “grand and beautiful lady”, a “stateswoman of unmatched dignity” and even Vladimir Putin recalled her rapport with “the ordinary people.”

Didn’t get him an invite to the funeral.

Sir Paul recalled her sense of humour and Sir Elton, in concert, dedicated “Don’t Let the Sun Go Down on Me” to QE2.  Former US ambassador Jane Hartley cited “a woman from California” who said that the Queen had been “our Queen, too.”

With the popular and beloved QE2 gone, members of the Commonwealth... especially former colonies hiding their anger and biding their time for decades, now talk openly of a different sort of Brexit.  A Commonexit, as it were?

Hunters and collectors ponder the collateral damage (and/or opportunities) in the royal demise.  There will be changes in currency, stamps, lyrics (God Save the King now) and, of course, merch merch merch!

Author and royal tagalong Brown cited QE2’s poker face and frugality (an ingrained habit from growing up during the War and the Blitz).  She joins many, many others in acknowledging that the dead queen was known for taking “the long view”.

 

And then the royal transition... perhaps being, as Serena Williams described in her decision to stop playing tennis for money, “evolution”... had a competitor.  Intrusive, but not unexpected; grim, but not inspirational (except for the stories that first responders on the day and survivors of those who were lost would tell whomever would hear them), Sunday, September 11th, 2022... the maturative 21st anniversary of the Nine Eleven... joined (and competed with) the Royal demise and impending transition, leaving Americans furiously switching channels and exchanging homilies, comparisons and tributizations.

Unlike the Royal funereal occasions... which will continue until the day after tomorrow, when the Queen will be finally laid to rest beside Prince Phillip... Sunday’s Nine Eleven commemorations were brief and to the point, albeit with that lingering cloud darkening the commencement of the reign of King Charles III, as noted below.

There were perfunctory denunciations regarding the wickedness of Osama Bin Laden, but little or nothing on the motivations behind the terror, or the forces arrayed... sometimes supportive, sometimes hostile... to the pan-Arabic, anti-West, anti-Colonial movement.

For such a monumental (in the sense that, like Time, we must take note of “cranks and villains”, however horrific their deeds) figure as kicked off the 21st century in its private, there has been little actually revealed about Osama.

With Antigua having already Brexited out of Britain, other angry and opportunistic Commonwealth members (mostly former colonies) plot to follow.  Although slavery ended in the 1830’s, author Clive Irving declared that the Commonwealth is, was and always will be racist.

Historians point out that Winston Churchill praised the baby then-princess and predicted a great future for her.

The Queen’s horse won at Pimlico.  Her corgis found a home... with Prince Andrew.  His legacy!

And so the new week began – a week of mournings and memorializations.  Not only for QE2... the “Beauty” of our title (she was hardly a pinup model, but her beauty was of character and the moderation with which she directed, if not governed, her Empire)... but for the “Beast”, the little-honoured and much reviled Osama Bin Laden; his cult, his followers, his family – elbowing, tho’ briefly, into the funerary festivities.  Monday was the 21st anniversary of the Day After Nine Eleven, whose maturity did not lessen the national resolve (of the U.S., but also the U.K., the E.U. and what seems to be a dwindling contingent of the ranks of defenders of democracy) nor the grief of the survivors.  And then it was gone, except for one odoriferous offshoot.

 

Monday, September 12th, 2022

In Scotland.  Elizabeth is transported to St. Giles Church, Edinburgh, to lie in state.  Crowds manifest.  Prince (and soon, King) Charles arrives.

Another royal expert, Roya Nikkak noted that the Royals are wearing uniforms to state functions, all except for Andrew, stuck in a suit.   Even Harry got to wear his uniform, over frowns and objections from cloudy sources (many attributable to Dad) having served in the Afghan War.

Some crown subjects deemed Charles’ conduct a slight aimed at the family.

 

Tuesday, September 13th, 2022

Queen Elizabeth II made a final journey home to Buckingham Palace on Tuesday night as her coffin was received by her family in a small private ceremony before being handed back to the nation for her official lying in state.  (Guardian U.K. Attachment One)

Led by the King, her children, grandchildren, and their spouses, gathered inside the palace’s grand entrance as her cortege arrived. Those present included the Queen Consort, Prince and Princess of Wales, and the Duke and Duchess of Sussex.

Outside the palace thousands of well wishers cheered as the state hearse, being used for the first time, entered the palace gates as darkness fell. The Queen had been consulted on the plans for the hearse, designed to allow the public to have a clear view of her coffin, and featuring her personal royal cypher.

The coffin was to rest overnight in the Bow Room, where the Queen had entertained foreign royalty, high-profile figures and dignitaries during her reign.

 

Wednesday, September 14th, 2022

GUK’s Wednesday briefing dealt with matters also great and small: for example, how people have arrested for marginal acts of protest following the Queen’s death, raised worrying questions about police conduct.  (See Attachment Two)

Correspondent Michael Wright explained some of the particulars of the funeral... the art and protocols of “lying in state”, and the significance of Westminster Hall.  Joanna Sugden noted the particulars (Attachment Four).

 

 

Thursday, September 15th, 2022

 

Town and Country published a list of some of the world leaders who would be attending the services (Attachment Five)... and the BBC released its own list of rejectees.  (Attachment Six)

 

 

Friday, September 16th, 2022

 

GUK reported that President Joe would offer his condolences to Prince... now King Charles and that he would hold his first meeting with novice PM Liz Truss.  (Attachments Seven, A and B)

 

And then… that odoriferous offshoot?

Beauty (well, her son Charles) entangles himself with the Beast (well, the Beast’s family) and collects a carpetbag of cash.

See Next Lesson!

 

 

Other news...

 

 

 

Timeline (non-QE2)

September 10th – September 17th, 2022

 

 

Saturday, September 10, 2022

Dow:  32,151.71

 

 

England and the world remember QE2. (above)

DC declares a state of emergency: buses from Tx and Az dump 9,000 migrants thereupon.

NY declares a state of emergency: polio is back!  (One case!)

SCOTUS bans gay teachers at Yeshiva and punishes administration by dis-recognizing the campus.

Post-Labor Day strikes by UAW Chrysler workers in Michigan, commercial railway workers nationwide (which will demolish the supply chain, hike inflation and provoke recession), nurses in Minnesota and teachers in Seattle.

 

 

Sunday, September 11th, 2022

Dow: Closed

 

 

Memorialization of Nine Eleven (its 21st “birthday”) compete... briefly... with memorialization of Qneen Elizabeth.  President Joe goes to the Pentagon, Jill Biden to Shanksville, Pa and Kamala Harris does the honors at Ground Zero.  Donald Trump stays at home and tweets about his stolen 2020 election.

   The names of the 9/11 victims are read aloud.  Twenty one years a lifetime and no time at all,” says an attendee.  It is pointed out that, in addition to the first responder victims at the site, three hundred cops and three hundred firefighters are presumed to have died due to chemical exposure.

   Sunday pundits pitch their views on the Queen, the terror and other things.  The One Six inquisition lurches forward... focus shifts to the DOJ, still hauling documents out of Mar-a-Lago.  RINOpublican former New Jersey governor turned public speaker Chris Christie raises the charge that Democratic dark money people funded strange candidates who would be more likely to lose in November while the FBI sticks to the quest... “It’s the things that we don’t have,” says David Sanger of the New York Times... referring to all the empty folders seized and puzzled over... “that impact our National Security.”                                                                                                      

  

 

 

Monday, September 12th, 2022

Dow:  32,381.34

 

 

President Joe congratulates himself on the passage of the Inflation Recovery Act and delivers yet another speech promising a “cancer moonshot” to cure the second deadliest disease in America.

   Bad timing: The actual moonshot test by Jeff Bezos’ Blue Origin goes terribly awry; it catches fire, but the crew capsule, which carried NASA-funded experiments but no people, safely landed under parachutes after firing an abort motor to escape the stricken booster.

   Ukrainian forces pushing Russia out of northeastern territory adjacent to Kharkiv at an accelerating rate.  Putin’s troops are either surrendering or retreating back into the security (for now) of their homeland, leaving behind oodles of military gear which President Zelensky and the Ukes will be glad to use against them.  A revengeful rain of rockets targets civilian infrastructure and civilians away from the white flag zone, evidence of war crimes mounts.

 

 

 

Tuesday, September 13th, 2022

Dow:  31,104.97

 

 

 

 

 

Having proclaimed himself a friend of labor, Biden is distressed when the nation’s railway workers say that negotiations with the train trust are failing and a strike looms... a strike that will snap the supply chain, empty shelves, pump up inflation and promote even the most extreme Republican midterm candidates. Also joining the picket lines: Seattle teachers, Minnesota nurses and the usual Starbucks/Amazon suspects. With such “friends” as these... (etc.)...

   But... wait (as the infomercials go)!  Sen. Lindsay Graham (R-SC) makes liars out of all the RINOs and a bunch of MAGAts too by announcing his intent to propose (and, if the GOP wins a few seats in 2024 or a lot in 2022) impose a Federal ban on all abortions – even in deep blue states.  Does anybody want to run this country?

   It gets worse.  The inflation rate falls from 8.5% to 8.3% (in and of itself pleasant but... weighed against the sky-high expectations and promises of Democrats, economists and the liberal media... disappointing).  The stock market thinks so – the Dow dropping over 1,000 points.  And the Fed, which had been preparing to impose and fight for a .75% interest rate hike, now finds itself pondering a levy of over one percent when next week’s go-day arrives.

  

 

 

Wednesday, September 14th, 2022

Dow:  31,584.28

 

 

 

 

 

 

150,000 Ukrainian civilians held captive by Russian troops are suddenly released as the enemy runs away.  President Zelenskyy makes a surprise visit to retaken Izium, explores evidence of atrocities and displays Iranian drones, while an enraged (really!) Mad Vlad Putin retaliates by cutting off gas shipments to France (go figure!) which causes Paris to dim the lights on the Eiffel Tower, already dimmed to honor QE2.  But his temper tantrum can’t slake the growing suspicion among Russian elites that he’s not long for his job, nor does the outbreak of another war (the long-running Azari-Armenia conflict).

  For its part, the CDC announces that there’s also another disease rising join polio (still stuck at One case), monkeypox and the good ol’ plague.  This one’s called “enterovirus” and, if spreading, will result in a plethora of digestive system “accidents”. 

   Even some Democrats are whispering that President Joe is in denial about the midterms.  Gas prices are down, but rents and groceries are up, LabSec Marty Walsh is desperately trying to fend off the national rail strike and supply chain chaos it would cause.

 

 

 

Thursday, September 15th, 2022

 Dow:  30,961.82

 

 

 

 

 

   President Joe brokers a deal between the railroads and the unions... 24% pay increase and bennies, including the critical sick leave provisions that sparked the strike.  He may also have saved the midterm elections for the Democrats.

   Florida Gov. Ron de Santis loads dozens of migrants, including children, onto buses that dump them off in ultra-swanky, ultra-liberal Martha’s Vinyard and says “they were given a good ride.”  Other buses drop them off in front of Veep Kamala Harris’ house.  Repubs. say it’s payback for border inefficiency that has clogged towns like El Paso with desparate and homeless people; Democrats call it cruel exploitation.  It diverts attention from abortion, for a while.

   Crime and justice in the news: Another Dr. Death found to have poisoned hospital patients’ IV bags, Aussie man beaten to death by a kangaroo,  In the courts, headed to jail are R. Kelly (30+years for sex crimes) and fake kidnap victim Sherri Pepini@ (8 months); out of jail (maybe) is podcast killer Sayed, getting a new trial after 20-some years.  Alabama endorses, then dis-endorses use of nitrogen in death penalty case.

 

 

 

Friday, September 16th, 2022

Dow:  30,822.42

 

 

 

Weirdly configured National Hispanic Heritage month kicks off with National Guacamole day.  1.8M migrants crossed the border in 2021.

   Trump appointed judge appoints Raymond Dearie as Special Master for Trump pilfered documents probe.  He will be ordered to reply “Yes, Dearie!” to inquiries from the bench.

   Weird CEO of Patagonia sells the whole company and donates $3B to fight climate change.  Weird scientists invent a painless tattoo.

 

 

Stocks fall after FedEx warns of global recession

By Nicole Goodkind, CNN Business

Updated 4:20 PM EDT, Fri September 16, 2022

New YorkCNN Business — 

US stocks fell on Friday after FedEx served investors a brutal pre-earnings announcement about the state of the global economy.

The Dow closed down 140 points, or 0.5%, lower. The S&P 500 fell 0.7% and the Nasdaq Composite was down 0.9%.

All three major indexes logged their fourth losing week out of the last five. The Dow dropped 4.1% for the week, and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq dropped 5% and 5.5%, respectively.

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Shares of FedEx (FDX) were down nearly 22% after the company withdrew its full-year guidance late Thursday and warned that a slowing economy will cause it to fall $500 million short of its revenue target. The weakening global economy, particularly in Asia and Europe has hurt FedEx (FDX) (FDX)’s express delivery business. The company said demand for packages weakened considerably in the final weeks of the quarter.

During an interview Thursday on CNBC, FedEx CEO Raj Subramaniam was asked if he believes the slowdown in his business is a sign of the start of a global recession.

“I think so,” he responded. “These numbers, they don’t portend very well.”

This marks FedEx’s worst one-day drop in history — topping the 16% plunge the day of the 1987 stock market crash. The Dow Transportation Index also fell by more than 5% in Friday trading and FedEx competitor, UPS (UPS), was also down about 5%.

Transport stocks are thought of as a leading indicator for the market at large, and FedEx in particular is seen as a market bellwether. The announcement could contribute to broader declines in a market that’s already heading for a big losing week.

Still, some analysts think that Amazon (AMZN) could be responsible for FedEx’s headache. “Amazon (AMZN) [recently] launched free shipping software for sellers, and discounted shipping rates,” wrote JPMorgan’s Jack Atherton in a client note.

“Amazon has piled money into its logistics capability over the past few years, to the point it has excess capacity for its own needs and is hungry for more share which is being targeted through FBA (Fulfillment By Amazon) and could be weighing on FedEx.”

 

Bottom of Form

Amazon stock was down more than 2% on Friday.

Either way, the third-quarter reporting season begins next month and FedEx’s warning adds to the souring outlook of analysts on earnings expectations.

Third quarter earnings-per-share estimates have slipped more than 5.5% since the end of June, according to FactSet data. That’s the largest drop for a quarter since the second quarter of 2020 (when Covid-19 sent the United States into recession).

The FedEx announcement also comes as investors worry about a weakening economic outlook as the Federal Reserve hikes interest rates aggressively to bring inflation under control.

The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index preliminary September reading added to investors’ woes on Friday, it came in at 59.5, its highest level since April but below economists’ estimates. The September survey showed that respondents don’t expect high prices to go away any time soon, consumers said they’re expecting inflation to hit 4.6% over the next 12 months and 2.8% within the next five years.

That’s bad news for investors as expectations can be a self-fulfilling prophecy: If consumers anticipate that prices will remain high, they’ll likely spend more and demand higher wages while businesses might raise prices to accommodate higher demand and wages. If expectations are lower, they might rein in spending and ask for smaller wages increases.

Friday’s consumer sentiment report is the last major piece of economic data before the Federal Reserve meets next week to discuss monetary policy and determine whether it will raise rates once again in its battle to tame inflation.

Still, the largest part of this week’s market loss came on Tuesday after a key inflation reading, August’s consumer price index report, came in hot. The Dow lost 1,200 points on the news– it’s worst decline since June 2020.

The Dow drop as well as a spike in unemployment were overmatched by foreign trade stats, rising Federal revenues and falling gas prices and... perhaps of more importance, the settling of a rail strike that could have plunged America back into the darkest days of the recession.

Will this affect November’s elections?  Maybe.

 

 

 

 

 

THE DON JONES INDEX

 

CHART of CATEGORIES w/VALUE ADDED to EQUAL BASELINE of 15,000

(REFLECTING… approximately… DOW JONES INDEX of June 27, 2013)

 

See a further explanation of categories here

 

ECONOMIC INDICES (60%)

CATEGORY

VALUE

BASE

RESULTS

SCORE

OUR SOURCES and COMMENTS

 

INCOME

(24%)

6/17/13 & 1/1/22

LAST

CHANGE

NEXT

9/10/22

9/17/22

SOURCE

 

Wages (hrly. per cap)

9%

1350 points

9/10/22

+0.44%

9/22

1,381.63

1,381.63

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/wages   27.57 nc

 

Median Inc. (yearly)

4%

600

9/10/22

+0.03%

9/24/22

603.79

603.96

http://www.usdebtclock.org/   36,010 020

 

Unempl. (BLS – in mi)

4%

600

9/10/22

-5.41%

9/22

616.25

616.25

http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000000/  3.7%

 

Official (DC – in mi)

2%

300

9/10/22

+6.57%

9/24/22

315.86

295.12

http://www.usdebtclock.org/      5,620 6.015

 

Unofficl. (DC – in mi)

2%

300

9/10/22

-2.69%

9/24/22

286.22

293.22

http://www.usdebtclock.org/    11,829 519

 

Workforce Particip.

   Number

   Percent

2%

300

9/10/22

 

+0.025%           +0.038%          

9/24/22

 

 

299.72

 

 

300.85

In 158,356 756 Out  100,157 99.444  Total: 258,200

 

http://www.usdebtclock.org/ 61.49

 

WP %  (ycharts)*

1%

150

9/10/22

+0.48%

9/10/22

150.48

150.48

https://ycharts.com/indicators/labor_force_participation_rate  62.40

 

 

OUTGO

15%

 

 

 

Total Inflation

7%

1050

8/22

+0.1

9/24/22

1010.64

1009.63

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm     +0.1

 

Food

2%

300

8/22

+0.8

9/24/22

289.34

286.15

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm     +0.8

 

Gasoline

2%

300

8/22

-10.6

9/24/22

221.46

238.50

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm      -10.6

 

Medical Costs

2%

300

8/22

+0.8

9/24/22

293.45

292.28

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm     +0.4 0.8

 

Shelter

2%

300

8/22

+0.7

9/24/22

293.46

291.99

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm     +0.5.7

 

 

WEALTH

6%

 

 

 

Dow Jones Index

2%

300

9/10/22

-4.13%

9/24/22

267.85

256.78

https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/   32,151.71  30,822.42

 

Home (Sales)

(Valuation)

1%

1%

150

150

9/10/22

-6.05%             -2.93%

9/24/22

154.06

309.58

154.06

309.58

https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics

Sales (M):  4.81 Valuations (K):  403.8

 

Debt (Personal)

2%

300

9/10/22

+0.07%

9/24/22

290.28

290.08

http://www.usdebtclock.org/    70,962 913

 

 

NATIONAL

(10%)

 

 

 

Revenue (trilns.)

2%

300

9/10/22

+6.89%

9/24/22

325.77

348.21

debtclock.org/       4,456 763

 

Expenditures (tr.)

2%

300

9/10/22

+1.97%

9/24/22

332.14

338.67

debtclock.org/       5,903 6019

 

National Debt tr.)

3%

450

9/10/22

+0.05%

9/24/22

441.43

441.22

http://www.usdebtclock.org/    30,879 894

 

Aggregate Debt (tr.)

3%

450

9/10/22

+0.16%

9/24/22

436.83

436.15

http://www.usdebtclock.org/    92,572 716

 

 

 

 

GLOBAL

(5%)

 

 

 

Foreign Debt (tr.)

2%

300

9/10/22

+0.03%

9/24/22

325.58

325.67

http://www.usdebtclock.org/   7,413 412

 

Exports (in billions)

1%

150

9/10/22

-0.27%

9/22

163.46

163.02

https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/index.html  260.0 259.3

 

Imports (bl.)

1%

150

9/10/22

+3,18%

9/22

153.99

158.89

https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/index.html  340.4 329.9