the DON JONES INDEX…
		GAINS POSTED in GREEN LOSSES POSTED in RED 7/3/23... 14,948.24 6/26/23... 14,934.48
	6/27/13… 15,000.00
(THE DOW JONES INDEX: 7/3/23... 34,407.60; 6/26/23... 33,727.43; 6/27/13… 15,000.00)

LESSON for July 3, 2023 – “SEVEN HOURS that SHOOK the KREMLIN!”

There is an old chestnut, hanging on the chestnut tree like Russian dissidents on Putin’s Maypole, that goes something like this... what once occurred as tragedy, re-occurs as farce.

Lesser known, lesser experienced... but still of occasional import is the opposite. Farce slinks off into the restroom, glances side to side to be sure nobody’s watching, then pulls off its comic mask and storms out the door and into the casino as a genuinely newsworthy news event. Once in a great while, to the benefit of Don Jones (such as the elevation of Volodomyr Zelenskyy from comedian to statesman – somewhat more often like the elevation of Donald Trump from reality show host to President). Progress in a suicide vest. And so it happened – at least for a few hours last week – when a former convict and hot dog vendor turned mercenary mercher (New York Times, June 24^th, AttachmentsOne and Two) decided, for reasons myriad, personal and partisan, to either overthrow Bad Vlad Putin or, at a minimum, to compel him to remove some of the dictator’s clumsiest cronies serving as Generals in the woebegone Russian Army being outmanned and outfought in Ukraine and replace them with someone more qualified… like himself

The farce, as depicted on a Lesson of a few months back, mimicked… in its comic aspects… the sad, sad story of celebrity chef Frank Heppner (sort of the German equivalent of the screaming TV guy always throwing plates and terrorizing apprentices) who found himself mixed up in the sauerbraten of an alleged Prince Heinrich XIII who wanted to seize power as the leader of a restored “Reichsburger” and return to the glory days of the Kaisers (an Otto, a Wilhelm etc.) before the disasters of World Wars One and Two. The furor furiously initiated by this wannabe fuhrer (or, in Russian Фюрера) Yevgeny Prigozhin) has caused the murder of thousands, perhaps, millions, not only in Ukraine but in Syria, Africa – anywhere anybody with money and a grudge wants to hire mercenaries.

America watched, waited and chose sides... Mad Vlad, the known (and quagmire) quantity who might, if further losses accrue, blow up the swamp (and the world) or his brutal ex-enforcer, Young Yeevy. (The National Review, after the shooting subsided, termed the confrontation: “Brutal Maniac Fails to Depose Other Brutal Maniac” (June 25^th, 12:12 PM, Attachment Three).

Don Jones, America and about 90 percent of the world with access to print, electronic or social media... even a radio... know what, at least, their authorities told them happened regarding this still-mysterious mission and its cliffhanger “conclusion but, in the interests of time and space, this week’s Lesson of the DJI will focus on Mister Prig’s march and sudden swerve through numerous, sometimes voluminous timelines and reserve the aftermath and the talking of the talking heads for next week.

Tired of putting up with the Russian equivalent of our “perfumed Pentagon princes”, Yevvy decided to march to Moscow, either to overthrow Putin or to persuade him to replace the incompetent Russian generals.

“The grainy footage announcing the insurrection” appeared on the Telegram messaging site at 7:24 a.m. Saturday morning: “Yevgeny Prigozhin had gathered two of Russia’s most senior commanders to humiliate them on camera and threaten to march his mercenary army to Moscow.” (Wall Street Journal, June 25, 2023 4:29 pm ET, Attachment Four)

Prigozhin’s run for the roses ended less than seven hours later, on or about 1:57 PM according to CNN (Embedded in Timeline, highlighted as Attachment Five).

Approaching the capital… 100 miles away by some estimates, 200 by others… he abruptly veered off and decided to parley with Putin; the result being that he accepted a deal to go into exile in Belarus (a Russian lapdog-state) in a deal brokered by the globally derided junior dictator Aleksandr Lukashenko, who stepped up and, perhaps, saved Putin’s ass.

(As the late, great Hasil Adkins may have predicted Prigozhin’s comeuppance, Hungry Vlad ain’t gonna eat no more hot dogs anymore.)

Below is our master timeline – predominantly lifted from CNN and the Guardian U.K. – with other inserts from the AP, ABC and Fox News and, internationally, from Meduza (Latvia), Al Jazeera (Qatar), the Kyev and Moscow Times(es), ABC News (Australia) and an assortment of one-offs

MEANWHILE, BACK in AMERICA...

In American news, the Trump Court pushed the nation back into the 1950s (the early 1950s) by slapping down the liberal pizza parlour cannibal pedophiles and all the young Americans seeking to join them: one, two three.

ONE – The 6 to 3 conservative majority outlawed affirmative action, with most of the furor being raised by colleges and universities, whose liberal administrators warned it would prohibit another generation of black students from access to higher education, and the presumably good jobs attached thereto...

TWO – Turning to another target group in the culture wars, SCOTUS affirmed the right of a Christian web designer to refuse service to gay, lesbian and other infidel Netizens; echoing their previous upholding of the right of a baker to refuse to decorate a cake that would violate her religious beliefs, and...

THREE – Back to the young people (and aging Americans still paying off student debt), the same six justices quashed President Joe’s scheme to knock $20,000 off existing indebtedness (down from the $50,000 proposed by liberals) saying, in effect, you borrowed the money, now pay it back!

Reastion to the Courts rulings evoked the usual partisan responses. On the “hurray!” side, the G.O.P. 2024 candidates were quick to applaud the decisions. Nikki Haley squealed: “Thank God for the Supreme Court!” An even more Godlier-than-her aspirant, former Vice President Mike Pence, trotted to and fro on Sunday talk shows celebrating the rising of Dominion,

	Our Lesson: June Twenty Sixth through July Second, 2023
Monday, June 26, 2023 Dow: 33,714.71	TV Colonel Ganyard says Mad Vlad hs the means to blow up the Zaporizha nuclear plant, but lacks the motive. (Uhh... ht’s crazy? – DJI) At least he’s in a good mood, with the Prigozhin coup foiled, or maybe he listened to the scientists who said that prevailing winds would blow most of the radiation east, into Russia. Well, replies the Colonel, maybe he can use it as a hostage – like the woman holding her kids at gunpoint telling the police that she’s going to shoot herself. No need for nukes in the West (and we mean the real West of the West) after another train loaded with toxins (this time it’s molten yellow sulfur emptied into the Yellowstone River). Residents of Billings, Mont. advised not to drink the water, so they’ll drink whiskey instead. In a hard rockin weekend, Elton John gives his farewell concert in Glastonbury, Paul Simon (despite going deaf, like Beethoven) moves to Texas and cuts a new album. The BMA honors many grizzled rappers, and bestows special honors on Tina Turner.
Tuesday, June 27, 2023 Dow: 34,053.87	With all of the pundits and pronouncers falling over themselves to explain Prigozhin’s failed coup, the man himself nobly declares that a Russian civil war would have wrecked the country, so he stood down. President Joe denies allegations that the whole fiasco was plotted by The West (which, to admit a point, has been very good at creating fiascos). Biden also provides a sneak peek at his budget agenda, which includes money for expanding broadband to rural areas, $500M for more military aid to Ukraine and... on an unpleasant note... $200B lost to fraud in processing plague settlement claims. This explains his basement-level popularity, even as Jack Smith releases Trump tapes that have him boasting about all his purloined confidential docs. Excessive heat rules Middle America as a Dome of Doom settles in over Texas, killing the weak and menacing the power grid. Roller coaster weather blamed for killing 90% of Georgia’s peach crop. Its 112° in Roswell, NM and even the aliens are sweating purple sweat. (it’s their ninth straight day of triple digit heat). And the orange skies from Canadian wildfire smoke are back – especially in Detroit and Chicago. As the smoke heads to NY, Gov. Hochul speaks: “We are the first generation to feel the effects of climate change and the last to be able to do anything about it.”
Wednesday, June 28, 2023 Dow: 33,951.52	President Joe announces his new progam of “Bidenomics”, promising to build the economy back from “the middle out and the bottom up”, not from the top down. Republicans laugh, and so do voters. Amidst war, stagflation and heat, Don Jones turns to the mass media for comfort and joy. Not so much available as writers strike hits 58 days, no settlement in sight, and the actors are going to go on strike too... fearing they’ll be replaced by AI robots. Results: nothing but “reality” shows. And, at least, (unscripted) awards and changes. Kerry Washington, Michelle Yeoh and Eugene Levy get their Hollywood sidewalk starts as does Chadwick Boseman (posthumously). Madonna goes bacterial and cancels concert tour. Ryan Secrest tabbed to replace Pat Sajak on “Wheel” (but he’ll keep his AmIdol job too).
Thursday, June 29, 2023 Dow: 34,122,42	Holiday travel season begins. Gas prices are down (except for some unpatriotic gouging) but airlines are flying the orange skies; still in a mess that experts blame on lack of staffing (pilots, air traffic controllers). The good news on the economy, too, is that the Fed reports that banks are passing their required “stress” tests. Consequently, the Dow is going up. Crime is going up too, the usual teenage gun violence matched or exceeded by scammers posing as rental agents taking tenants’ deposits and ghosting and even selling defective chicken parts with bones that choke the kiddies to schools in NYC. SCOTUS throws Strike One in its bid to take back America and make it 1954 again by outlawing affirmative action. Republicans say that education should be race-neutral, Democrats say it will set blacks back to the Jim Crow days.
Friday, June 30, 2023 Dow: 34,407.60	Supremes throw Strike Two, ruling that a website developer can refuse to provide its services to gay couples wanting wedding blogs, reiterating the old wedding cake baker’s argument that the First Amendment prevents government from forcing businesspeople to create, as oppose to sell, products that violate their religious beliefs to people they dislike. The usual suspects cheer and jeer. Record southeast heat persists... crawling from Texas towards Florida and overstressing humans and the ambulances that carry them to treatment as well as taxing the power grids. Onburning Canadian wildfires give New York the worst air quality in the world. SAG actors join writers on the picket line, complaining ‘bout the potential for virtual imaging to simulate live persons’ likenesses and demanding their cut of streaming revenues. The corporations are digging in, promising many months, if not years, of cartoons, foreign films and TV reality shows. Time to read books.
Saturday, July 1st, 2023 Dow: (Closed)	SCOTUS Strike Three is its ruling that President Joe’s student loan forgiveness giveaway is neither legal nor ethical. Conservatives (and quite a few moderates and liberals of a certain age) say they had to pay back their education loans, why shouldn’t todays kids. Further, a lot of debtors are mature, even senior citizens who keep piling up graduate degrees. Skeptics are beginning to ask whether college educations are worth the trouble anymore. There are plenty of jobs available to non-Ph.D’s... for example, Oscar Meyer is looking for people to drive its theme trucks that we can’t call Wienermobiles anymore. Canine comestibles are in the news with revelations that Yevgeny Prigoszhan got his start selling hotdogs to Hungry Vlad and his buddies at the spookworks. Real animal lovers mourn the death of three-year-old Fitz the elephant and 36 year old Binti the chimp. Animal haters point to sharks, rats and mosquitoes and now there is a bobcat mauling three Connecticut camp counselors, a coyote attacking a Floridian and a fox that interrupts the Senior Open golf tourney, nosing someone’s ball around the green. More trouble for Trump in the Georgia election case... now former Gov. Ducey (R-Az) testifies that Djonald also pressured him to “find” votes to overturn Arizona’s 2020 vote count.
Sunday, July 2nd, 2023 Dow: (Closed)	It’s the anniversary of the signing of the 1964 Voting Rights Act which minorities and the Left call the high water mark of the LBJ administration – now under attack based on the overturning of SCOTUS rulings. Also in danger – interracial marriage, gay marriage and, in fact, legalization and retroactive retributions for reverse racism which means... of course... more lawyers seeking to get richer. The holiday weekend endures more nights of riots in France, causing warnings for vacationers to stay home for the Fourth. Here, they can face more mass shootings... 30 shot in Chicago (3 die) and Baltimore (2 die) and seven more in Wichita, Kansas. Stay off the water too, a cruise vessel burns and sinks off the coast of Greece, but because the passengers are tourists, not migrants, all are rescued. The Sunday talkshows treat Russia and the Supremes (above) and the busiest man on the move is Mike Pence who weighs in on the court decisions (good for God and country) and he recounts his visit with President Zelenskyy, who wants more American arms and ammunition. Pence states that he is on the side of the pro-Ukraines, as opposed to other Republicans who want to let Moscow have its way,

THE DON JONES INDEX

CHART of CATEGORIES w/VALUE ADDED to EQUAL BASELINE of 15,000

(REFLECTING… approximately… DOW JONES INDEX of June 27, 2013)

See a further explanation of categories here…

ECONOMIC INDICES (60%)

CATEGORY	VALUE	BASE	RESULTS			SCORE		OUR SOURCES and COMMENTS
INCOME	(24%)	6/17/13 & 1/1/22	LAST	CHANGE	NEXT	LAST WEEK	THIS WEEK
Wages (hrly. Per cap)	9%	1350 points	6/19/23	+0.45%	6/23	1,440.96	1,440.96	https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/wages   28.75 nc
Median Inc. (yearly)	4%	600	6/26/23	+0.030%	7/10/23	608.50	608.69	http://www.usdebtclock.org/   35,911
Unempl. (BLS – in mi)	4%	600	5/8/23	nc	6/23	616.52	616.52	http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000000/  3.7 nc
Official (DC – in mi)	2%	300	6/26/23	+0.05%	7/10/23	257.96	257.83	http://www.usdebtclock.org/      6,176
Unofficl. (DC – in mi)	2%	300	6/26/23	- 0.067%	7/10/23	305.73	305.93	http://www.usdebtclock.org/     10,455
Workforce Particip. Number Percent	2%	300	6/26/23	-0.03% -0.015%	7/10/23	304.29	304.25	In 162,344 Out 100,068 Total: 262,412 http://www.usdebtclock.org/ 61.866
WP % (ycharts)*	1%	150	2/27/23	nc (3 mos.)	5/23	151.19	151.19	https://ycharts.com/indicators/labor_force_participation_rate 62.60
OUTGO	15%	Biggest jump: used cars
Total Inflation	7%	1050	5/22/23	+0.1%	7/23	990.91	990.91	http://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm     +0.1 nc
Food	2%	300	5/22/23	+0.2%	7/23	278.22	278.22	http://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm     +0.2
Gasoline	2%	300	5/22/23	-5.6%	7/23	260.59	260.59	http://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm    -5.6
Medical Costs	2%	300	5/22/23	-0.1%	7/23	296.97	296.97	http://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm     -0.1
Shelter	2%	300	5/22/23	+0.6%	7/23	276.58	276.58	http://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm     +0.6
WEALTH	6%
Dow Jones Index	2%	300	6/26/23	+2,02%	7/10/23	275.55	281.11	https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/ 34,407.60
Home (Sales) (Valuation)	1% 1%	150 150	5/1/23	-3.60% +2.59%	7/23	134.58 283.40	134.58 290.74	https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics Sales (M):  4.30 Valuations (K):  396.1
Debt (Personal)	2%	300	6/26/23	-1.31%	7/10/23	273.35	276.93	http://www.usdebtclock.org/    73,538
NATIONAL	(10%)
Revenue (trilns.)	2%	300	6/26/23	+0.06%	7/10/23	393.64	393.89	debtclock.org/       4,699
Expenditures (tr.)	2%	300	6/26/23	+0.11%	7/10/23	331.27	330.90	debtclock.org/       6,212
National Debt tr.)	3%	450	6/26/23	+0.66%	7/10/23	420.25	417.48	http://www.usdebtclock.org/    32,327 (The debt ceiling... now kicked forward to 1/1/25... had been 31.4)
Aggregate Debt (tr.)	3%	450	6/26/23	+0.34%	7/10/23	401.17	399.81	http://www.usdebtclock.org/    100,915
GLOBAL	(5%)
Foreign Debt (tr.)	2%	300	6/26/23	+0.082%	7/10/23	344.96	345.25	http://www.usdebtclock.org/   7,253
Exports (in billions)	1%	150	5/22/23	-2.41%	7/23	154.66	154.66	https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/current/index.html 249.0
Imports (bl.)	1%	150	5/22/23	-6.725%	7/23	159.02	159.02	https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/current/index.html 343.5
Trade Deficit (bl.)	1%	150	5/22/23	+13.94%	7/23	265.59	265.59	https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/current/index.html 74.6
SOCIAL INDICES (40%)
ACTS of MAN	12%							1274
World Affairs	3%	450	6/26/23	+0.2%	7/10/23	451.72	452.62	Mike Pence meets and greets President Z in Kyev, SecState Blinken meets Pres. Xi in China. No developments, but it’s nice they can still talk to one another.
Terrorism	2%	300	6/26/23	-0.2%	7/10/23	290.73	290.15	TV Col. Ganyard says Russia has the means to blow up the Zaporizha nuke plant, but lacks a motive. (Uhhh... Putin’s crazy? – DJI) French endure a week of riots, arson and looting until murdered teen’s mother pleads for them to go home.
Politics	3%	450	6/26/23	-0.2%	7/10/23	481.94	480.98	Conservatives protest $500M military aid to Ukes, everybody protests $200M lost to plague bailout scammers. President Joe calls press conference to introduce “Bidenomics”. Voters laugh, Trump, on the other hand, facing evidence that he tried to extort AZ Gov. Ducey. State Dept. report blames both Biden and Trump for Afghan fiasco.
Economics	3%	450	6/26/23	-0.2%	7/10/23	429.19	428.33	Iconic Lordstown autoworks closes. Apple value tops $3T, MicroSoft tries to keep up by swallowing Activision. United CEO Scott Kirby shamed for flying round and round and round in his private jet while passengers endure delays and cancellations below,
Crime	1%	150	6/26/23	-0.1%	7/10/23	255.56	255.30	The week’s murders include home invaders killing man and wife on 50^th wedding anniversary, and mass shootings as above. Cops crack down on catalytic converter thieves. Romans arrest idiot tourist for carving his name on the Colosseum.
ACTS of GOD	(6%)
Environment/Weather	3%	450	6/26/23	-0.3%	7/10/23	410.21	408.98	Heat (112° in Roswell, NM has ET sweating purple perspiration) and smoke chokes Gotham – NY Gov. Hochul: “We are the first generation to feel the effects of climate change and the last to be able to do anything meaningful about it.”
Disasters	3%	450	6/26/23	-0.1%	7/10/23	437.66	437.22	Montana trainwreck dumps molten sulfur into the Yellowstone River, poisoning the drinking water of Billings. They’ll have to drink whiskey. Nothing’s peachy in Georgia either, alternating cold and heatwaves kills 90% of the crop. NFL’s Leonard Fournette escapes SUV fire; former QB Ryan Mallet not so lucky – he drowns in Destin, Fl, ripcurrent. Drone-flying teen rescues family whose car fell into a sinkhold.
LIFESTYLE/JUSTICE INDEX			(15%)
Science, Tech, Educ.	4%	600	6/26/23	+0.4%	7/10/23	628.47	630.98	Virgin Galactic sends three Italian researchers away into space so as to research stuff. Further out, Webb telescope highlights Saturn’s glowing, psychedelic rings. Eurosat launch will search the universe for its “darkest secrets”. Blackmail on tap? Robot conducts SoKo orchestra. Elon Musk decrees “temporary” limits on Twitter access, and angers obsessives
Equality (econ/social)	4%	600	6/26/23	nc	7/10/23	616.70	616.70	Repubs cheer, Dems jeer as affirmative action goes the way of Roe v. Wade and LGBQTWhateer couples are blocked from taunting Godly cakebakers and website designers. Spin doctors spin student loan enforcement as working class v. rich professionals.
Health	4%	600	6/26/23	-0.2%	7/10/23	469.68	468.74	President Joe fitted for CPAP breathing aid. Madonna goes bacterial – cancels tour. An unwelcome returnee: malaria. Researchers say opioids do not inhibit pain, needle junkies disagree. Fat people who hate needles applaud development of O-O-Oral Ozempic. Recalls include baby food with too much heavy metal,
Freedom and Justice	3%	450	6/26/23	+0.3%	7/10/23	467.77	469.17	Krooks and Killers face Justice – Idaho seeks death penalty for Kohberger, Club Q anti-gay gunslinger gets five life terms. Sex criminals in the dock include Boston lawyer and Rizzo’s Raider (Phila. Cop). Police win one (killer of neo-Nazi mall shooter exonerated (duh!), and another (cowardly cop who ran away from Parkland massacre faced 95 years, got nada). NYC subway choker vigilante will face trial. California man also faces prison for cow manure Ponzi scheme.
MISCELLANEOUS and TRANSIENT INDEX					(7%)
Cultural incidents	3%	450	6/26/23	+0.2%	7/10/23	497.79	498.79	Britney Griner makes WNBA all star game set for 7/15. Domingo Hernan pitches first perfect game in 11 years. Stage, screen and sound highlights include memorial Hollywood street star for Chadwick Boseman, BMA’s tribute to Tina Turner, Angela Bassett’s honorary Oscar for biopic of same (Mel Brooks gets one too)l, Sir Elton’s farewell concert in Glastonbury and Paul Simon’s new album despite going deaf (like Beethovan?). Ryan Secrest to replace Pat Sajak on Wheel, but keep his nite job at AmIdol, Indiana Jones 5 opens to tepid reviews and even more tepid box office receipts of $60 million in the United States and $70 million internationally RIP actor Alan Arkin (“The Russians are Coming!”), Tuskegee airman Homer Hogues.
Misc. incidents	4%	450	6/26/23	+0.1%	7/10/23	480.43	480.91	Iowa woman who lost home to tornado wins lottery. Stupider woman dips her hand into thermal pool, screams: “It’s hot!” NYC raising tolls on drivers who want to enter Manhattan. Goodwill finds a live grenade in its donation box.

The Don Jones Index for the week of July 3^rd through July 9^th, 2023 was UP 13.76 points

The Don Jones Index is sponsored by the Coalition for a New Consensus: retired Congressman and Independent Presidential candidate Jack “Catfish” Parnell, Chairman; Brian Doohan, Administrator. The CNC denies, emphatically, allegations that the organization, as well as any of its officers (including former Congressman Parnell, environmentalist/America-Firster Austin Tillerman and cosmetics CEO Rayna Finch) and references to Parnell’s works, “Entropy and Renaissance” and “The Coming Kill-Off” are fictitious or, at best, mere pawns in the web-serial “Black Helicopters” – and promise swift, effective legal action against parties promulgating this and/or other such slanders.

Comments, complaints, donations (especially SUPERPAC donations) always welcome at feedme@generisis.com or: speak@donjonesindex.com.

ATTACHMENT ONE – From the New York Times

AS PUTIN’S TRUSTED PARTNER, PRIGOZHIN WAS ALWAYS WILLING TO DO THE DIRTY WORK

Yevgeny V. Prigozhin, the mercenary leader of the Wagner Group, had earned the trust of Vladimir V. Putin. Then he staged a mutiny that rattled the Kremlin.

By Anatoly Kurmanaev and Kyle Crichton June 24, 2023

Yevgeny V. Prigozhin, the mercenary leader who led an armed rebellion in Russia on Saturday, was never afraid of a dirty task, many say.

Emerging from jail as the Soviet Union was collapsing, he began his post-criminal career selling hot dogs on street corners in St. Petersburg, Russia. There, he befriended Vladimir V. Putin, then a minor official in the city government, developed a catering business and earned billions on government contracts when his friend Vladimir became prime minister and then president of Russia.

Mr. Prigozhin quickly earned the trust of his benefactor, who assigned him a number of important tasks that were best handled at arm’s length from the government. The first and most notorious of those was overseeing the Internet Research Agency, a troll farm founded in 2013 to flood the United States and Europe with disinformation that discredited liberal elites and promoted hard-right ideologies.

From there, he raised mercenaries to fight in Syria and Libya, and, most fatefully, founded the private military group Wagner, which emerged during Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014. It quickly earned a reputation for ruthless violence in pursuit of lucrative diamond and gold concessions, while building political influence for the Kremlin in countries like the Central African Republic, Libya, Mali and Sudan.

Throughout those years, Mr. Prigozhin kept an extremely low profile, never even admitting to the existence of Wagner, let alone his having a role in it.

That began to change during the war in Ukraine, as the Russian military suffered setback after setback and Mr. Prigozhin became disgusted with the greed, corruption and ineptitude he claimed to see in the upper echelons of the military.

“These are Wagner guys who died today; the blood is still fresh,” Mr. Prigozhin said, addressing Russia’s defense minister, Sergei K. Shoigu, and the commander of the armed forces, Valery V. Gerasimov. “They came here as volunteers and they die so you can get fat in your mahogany offices.”

As his critiques of Russia’s top military leaders grew more frequent and intemperate, he began to emerge as a public figure, insisting that his forces could do the job far better than the Russian regulars.

He recruited thousands of convicts from Russian prisons and threw them into the bloody fight over the Ukrainian city of Bakhmut, often with the ruthlessness and indifference to human life that he attributed to Russian commanders. Along the way he feuded with General Shoigu and General Gerasimov, accusing them of depriving his forces of ammunition to try to destroy Wagner, an action he said “can be equated to treason.”

For Mr. Prigozhin, a breaking point was reached on Friday night, when, he says, Russian forces attacked his men as they slept in their camps (something that Russia denies and that has not been independently confirmed). On Saturday, he led a force he claimed to number 25,000 out of Ukraine and into Russia, where he seized the city of Rostov-on-Don, a military hub, with virtually no resistance.

Always a complex figure, he was prone to vituperative outbursts and threats that were quickly forgotten or contradicted, as happened on Saturday. After first claiming he would march his forces all the way to Moscow, he reversed course later in the day. He had agreed to a proposal by the Belarusian leader, Aleksandr G. Lukashenko, “to stop the movement of armed persons of the Wagner company” and move to Belarus. In return, the Russian government would drop the charges of treason against him and grant amnesty to his soldiers.

It remains unclear if he can return to Russia, but he has capitalized on his feud with the generals to fashion himself as a populist political figure, fighting for humble servicemen and others suffering at the hands of “unqualified scoundrels and intrigants.”

He has contrasted that with what he sees as the decadence of Russian elites and the injustice in society.

“The children of the elite smear themselves with creams, showing it on the internet; ordinary people’s children come in zinc, torn to pieces,” he said, referring to the coffins of dead soldiers, and adding that those killed in action had “tens of thousands” of relatives. “Society always demands justice,” he said, “and if there is no justice, then revolutionary sentiments arise.”

Where Mr. Prigozhin goes from here is hard to pin down, as is the fate of Wagner.

If he remains in control of the company, and that is by no means assured, he will still command considerable military assets, but they will be devalued if they cannot rely on the support of the Russian military.

Apart from his standing force, Mr. Prigozhin claimed this month that 32,000 former convicts who had served with Wagner in Ukraine had returned to their homes in Russia. Many of these veterans have expressed strong loyalty to Mr. Prigozhin and have considered returning to its ranks, according to interviews with survivors and their relatives, providing an additional pool of potential recruits to the rebel cause.

Yet most experts believe Wagner’s real strength is far below what Mr. Prigozhin claims, and that he is hoping more Russian soldiers and security agents disgusted by the corruption and mistreatment they see will respond to his populist critique of the leadership and join his ranks.

The U.S. government estimated in December that Wagner had 10,000 professional soldiers. That number most likely fell in recent months as Wagner was forced to throw its most experienced units into battle to finalize the capture of Bakhmut, according to Ukrainian and Western intelligence officials.

Mr. Prigozhin himself said this year that after the capture of Bakhmut, his force would “downsize” as it prepared for new missions.

Notably, Mr. Prigozhin had managed to run a force numbering tens of thousands of fighters largely on cash. Veterans and their relatives had received salaries, as well as death and injury compensations, through an elaborate network of nameless intermediaries spread across the nation.

The mutiny is likely to have erased that logistical support. And most experts believe that no personal wealth can maintain a large military force capable of challenging a regular army for long, especially without access to the state-controlled financial system.

Earlier on Saturday, videos circulating on social media showed purported Wagner convoys moving through Russia toward Moscow with mounted tanks, air defenses and self-propelled rocket launchers. Most of the rebels’ convoys, however, appeared to be made up of unprotected trucks carrying soldiers.

Mark Galeotti, a Russia military expert, said the limited amount of heavy weaponry would make it difficult for Wagner to operate independently of the Russian military.

“Without artillery you can’t really fight straight-up warfare,” he said.

Before the crisis on Saturday, many analysts had said that Mr. Prigozhin was looking to transition to the political sphere in Russia, though he had been careful not to pose any threat to Mr. Putin.

“He sees his future at risk, and he is scrambling to present a place for himself after Bakhmut within the larger war,” said Jack Margolin, a Washington-based expert on Russia’s private military companies.

ATTACHMENT TWO - From the Associated Press

THE MERCENARY CHIEF WHO URGED AN UPRISING AGAINST RUSSIA’S GENERALS HAS LONG TIES TO PUTIN

By ELLEN KNICKMEYER

The millionaire mercenary chief who long benefitted from the powerful patronage of President Vladimir Putin has moved into the global spotlight with a dramatic rebellion against Russia’s military that challenged the authority of Putin himself.

Yevgeny Prigozhin is the 62-year-old owner of the Kremlin-allied Wagner Group, a private army of inmate recruits and other mercenaries that has fought some of the deadliest battles in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

On Friday, Prigozhin abruptly escalated months of scathing criticism of Russia’s conduct of the war, calling for an armed uprising to oust the defense minister, and then rolling toward Moscow with his soldiers-for-hire.

As Putin’s government declared a “counterterrorism” alert and scrambled to seal off Moscow with checkpoints, Prigozhin just as abruptly stood down the following day. As part of the deal to defuse the crisis, he agreed to move to Belarus and was seen late Saturday retreating with his forces from Rostov-on-Don, a city in southern Russia where they had taken over the military headquarters.

It was unclear what was next for Prigozhin, a former prison inmate, hot-dog vendor and restaurant owner who has riveted world attention.

‘PUTIN’S CHEF’

Prigozhin and Putin go way back, with both born in Leningrad, what is now St. Petersburg.

During the final years of the Soviet Union, Prigozhin served time in prison — 10 years by his own admission — although he does not say what it was for.

Afterward, he owned a hot dog stand and then fancy restaurants that drew interest from Putin. In his first term, the Russian leader took then-French President Jacques Chirac to dine at one of them.

“Vladimir Putin saw how I built a business out of a kiosk, he saw that I don’t mind serving to the esteemed guests because they were my guests,” Prigozhin recalled in an interview published in 2011.

His businesses expanded significantly to catering and providing school lunches. In 2010, Putin helped open Prigozhin’s factory, which was built on generous loans by a state bank. In Moscow alone, his company Concord won millions of dollars in contracts to provide meals at public schools. He also organized catering for Kremlin events for several years — earning him the nickname “Putin’s chef” — and has provided catering and utility services to the Russian military.

In 2017, opposition figure and corruption fighter Alexei Navalny accused Prigozhin’s companies of breaking antitrust laws by bidding for some $387 million in Defense Ministry contracts.

MILITARY CONNECTION

Prigozhin also owns the Wagner Group, a Kremlin-allied mercenary force that has come to play a central role in Putin’s projection of Russian influence in trouble spots around the world.

The United States, European Union, United Nations and others say the mercenary force has involved itself in conflicts in countries across Africa in particular. Wagner fighters allegedly provide security for national leaders or warlords in exchange for lucrative payments, often including a share of gold or other natural resources. U.S. officials say Russia may also be using Wagner’s work in Africa to support its war in Ukraine.

In Ukraine, Prigozhin’s mercenaries have become a major force in the war, fighting as counterparts to the Russian army in battles with Ukrainian forces.

That includes Wagner fighters taking Bakhmut, the city where the bloodiest and longest battles have taken place. By last month, Wagner Group and Russian forces appeared to have largely won Bakhmut, a victory with strategically slight importance for Russia despite the cost in lives. Prigozhin has said that 20,000 of his men died in Bakhmut, about half of them inmates recruited from Russia’s prisons.

WHAT IS THE GROUP’S REPUTATION?

Western countries and United Nations experts have accused Wagner Group mercenaries of committing numerous human rights abuses throughout Africa, including in the Central African Republic, Libya and Mali.

In December 2021, the European Union accused the group of “serious human rights abuses, including torture and extrajudicial, summary or arbitrary executions and killings,” and of carrying out “destabilizing activities” in the Central African Republic, Libya, Syria and Ukraine.

Some of the reported incidents stood out in their grisly brutality.

In November 2022, a video surfaced online that showed a former Wagner contractor getting beaten to death with a sledgehammer after he allegedly fled to the Ukrainian side and was recaptured. Despite public outrage and a stream of demands for an investigation, the Kremlin turned a blind eye to it.

RAGING AGAINST RUSSIA’S GENERALS

As his forces fought and died en masse in Ukraine, Prigozhin raged against Russia’s military brass. In a video released by his team last month, Prigozhin stood next to rows bodies he said were those of Wagner fighters. He accused Russia’s regular military of incompetence and of starving his troops of the weapons and ammunition they needed to fight.

“These are someone’s fathers and someone’s sons,” Prigozhin said then. “The scum that doesn’t give us ammunition will eat their guts in hell.”

CRITICIZING THE BRASS

Prigozhin has castigated the top military brass, accusing top-ranking officers of incompetence. His remarks were unprecedented for Russia’s tightly controlled political system, in which only Putin could air such criticism.

In January, Putin reaffirmed his trust in the chief of the Russian military’s General Staff, Gen. Valery Gerasimov, by putting him in direct charge of the Russian forces in Ukraine, a move that some observers also interpreted as an attempt to cut Prigozhin down to size.

Asked recently about a media comparison of him to Grigory Rasputin, a mystic who gained influence over Russia’s last czar by claiming to have the power to cure his son’s hemophilia, Prigozhin snapped: “I don’t stop blood, but I spill blood of the enemies of our Motherland.”

A ‘BAD ACTOR’ IN THE US

Prigozhin earlier gained more limited attention in the U.S., when he and a dozen other Russian nationals and three Russian companies were charged with operating a covert social media campaign aimed at fomenting discord ahead of Donald Trump’s 2016 election victory.

They were indicted as part of special counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation into Russian election interference. The U.S. Treasury Department has sanctioned Prigozhin and associates repeatedly in connection with both his election interference and his leadership of the Wagner Group.

After the 2018 indictment, the RIA Novosti news agency quoted Prigozhin as saying, in a clearly sarcastic remark: “Americans are very impressionable people; they see what they want to see. I treat them with great respect. I’m not at all upset that I’m on this list. If they want to see the devil, let them see him.”

The Biden White House in that episode called him “a known bad actor,” and State Department spokesman Ned Price said Prigozhin’s “bold confession, if anything, appears to be just a manifestation of the impunity that crooks and cronies enjoy under President Putin and the Kremlin.”

AVOIDING CHALLENGES TO PUTIN

As Prigozhin grew more outspoken against the way Russia’s conventional military conducted fighting in Ukraine, he continued to play a seemingly indispensable role for the Russian offensive, and appeared to suffer no retaliation from Putin for his criticism of Putin’s generals.

Media reports at times suggested Prigozhin’s influence on Putin was growing and he was after a prominent political post. But analysts warned against overestimating his influence with Putin.

“He’s not one of Putin’s close figures or a confidant,” said Mark Galeotti of University College, London, who specializes in Russian security affairs, speaking on his podcast “In Moscow’s Shadows.”

“Prigozhin does what the Kremlin wants and does very well for himself in the process. But that’s the thing — he is part of the staff rather than part of the family,” Galeotti said.

ATTACHMENT THREE – From the National Review

BRUTAL MANIAC FAILS TO DEPOSE OTHER BRUTAL MANIAC

By JIM GERAGHTY June 25, 2023 12:12 PM

Think about all the things that must go right to pull off a successful coup.

You need to accurately sense that there is widespread discontent with the country’s ruler within the country, and in particular within the armed forces – often in a nation where speaking out against the ruler carries dire or fatal consequences. You absolutely must be a figure with the kind of official or unofficial stature to seize control of the armed forces. You need to either recruit, co-opt, or otherwise neutralize every other armed group within the country – the police, the domestic security services, the intelligence services. You must operate in absolute secrecy, while simultaneously recruiting more and more people to your cause. You need to make sure no one you speak to goes running to the ruler to rat you out, and everyone who joins the coup remains fully committed until it is complete. If anyone gets cold feet, you and your co-conspirators will likely be executed.

Oftentimes, in a dictatorial state like Russia, the leader has been paranoid about efforts to depose him since his first day ruling the country. State surveillance is ubiquitous; perhaps the best camouflage is an endless rumor mill where everyone is under suspicion all the time, so no particular act stands out as suspicious.

Once the operation begins, you must operate quickly – you must have already snatched as many levers of the state as possible – communications, key transportation routes and hubs, important government buildings — before the ruler or the general public realizes what is happening. You need the kind of access and power to suddenly either kill or isolate and imprison the ruler. And even if all that goes right, it’s still a giant gamble – which orders do the soldiers follow? What is a desperate ruler willing to do as hostile forces close in on him? And how does the general public react?

In this light, it’s surprising that coups ever succeed.

Maybe you must be a crazed maniac to try to launch a coup against a cold-blooded, paranoid dictator like Vladimir Putin. Then again, Yevgeniy Prigozhin meets most people’s definition of a crazed maniac. As a young man, he was sentenced to twelve years in prison for robbery, fraud, and involving minors in prostitution. After serving nine years, he turned a hot dog stand into the country’s largest catering company with government contracts. In 2019, his lucrative catering firm was accused of causing dysentery outbreaks at seven state-run day care catering and kindergartens in Moscow. He shrugged off a video of a “traitor” being executed by sledgehammer blows to the head, declaring, “a dog receives a dog’s death. . . . It was an excellent directional piece of work, watched in one breath.” He boasted that his forces were deliberately turning the battle of Bakhmut into a “meat grinder” to maximize the casualties to the Ukrainians.

And yet, Bellingcat calls Prigozhin “the Renaissance man of deniable Russian black ops.” Besides running the Wagner Group and sending retired Russian soldiers all around the globe to enforce Russia’s will without leaving government fingerprints, Prigozhin is the man behind the Russian Internet “troll factory,” the Saint Petersburg–based Internet Research Agency,. He was indicted by former FBI director Robert Mueller for a conspiracy to steal the identities of American citizens, posed as political activists in a plot to influence the 2016 election.

As the world learned this weekend, a man crazy enough to launch a coup against Putin is also crazy enough to say, “eh, nevermind” after a day and accept exile in Belarus because Belarusian president Alexander Lukashenko asked him nicely to avoid starting a Russian civil war. Perhaps Prigozhin lost his nerve, or belatedly realized the odds were stacked against him. His short-lived upheaval left those of us in the West wondering how much control Putin really has over the Russian state.

More than a few foreign-policy wonks have warned that under Putin, Russia was devolving into something more akin to North Korea: irrational, unpredictable, provocative, a barely functional state by many measures, but still nuclear-armed and capable of threatening anyone. For decades, Russia watchers in the West convinced themselves that Russia was antagonistic but rational, and that President Biden was correct to seek a “stable and predictable” relationship with Russia. But as we’ve seen since the invasion of Ukraine started in February 2022, neither Putin nor Russia are all that stable or predictable.

If Putin died tomorrow — or he became incapacitated — the current prime minister would become acting president. The current prime minster is Mikhail Mishustin, a man who is in that job precisely because he has no ambition to replace Putin or any demonstrated capacity to disagree with him. According to the Russian constitution, after the president dies, an election to replace him should be called within 90 days. Mishustin would be eligible to run, but he doesn’t seem like a man with a burning hunger to run a nuclear-armed state that is now a global pariah.

The men who rise to the top of the Russian system tend to be like Putin and Prigozhin – egomaniacal, ruthless, brutal, paranoid, shameless – an odious combination of cold-blooded ambition and wicked comfort with violence. Maybe this weekend’s events signal the beginning of the end for Putin’s rule. But whoever replaces Putin isn’t likely to have a dramatically different geopolitical worldview or code of ethics from his predecessor. Russian leaders feel vulnerable and threatened, and so they seek to avert those threats by taking a bellicose stance toward the country’s neighbors and the West.

After two decades of Putin’s shameless provocations and aggression, the West yearned to see Russia’s leadership weakened. But there’s no guarantee that a weaker Russia will be a more stable Russia.

ATTACHMENT FOUR – From the Wall Street Journal

WHY WAGNER CHIEF PRIGOZHIN TURNED AGAINST PUTIN

Military infighting, financial pressures and personal political ambitions played into brash decision

By Benoit Faucon, Joe Parkinson and Thomas Grove June 25, 2023 4:29 pm ET

The grainy footage announcing the insurrection appeared on the Telegram messaging site at 7:24 a.m.: Yevgeny Prigozhin had gathered two of Russia’s most senior commanders to humiliate them on camera and threaten to march his mercenary army to Moscow.

“Our men die because you treat them like meat…no ammo, no plans,” said the founder of the Wagner Group private military company, flanked by masked fighters who had seized the Rostov-on Don command center. He demanded the base’s brass hand over their bosses, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of General Staff Valeriy Gerasimov, whom he called “geriatric clowns.”

The video reverberated across the world, offering a partial explanation for the lightning insurrection that posed the gravest threat to President Vladimir Putin’s 23 years in power.

The full story behind why Prigozhin launched—then stunningly halted—his revolt isn’t yet known. But the elements include the culmination of military infighting, financial pressures and Prigozhin’s personal political ambitions, according to Russian defectors, military analysts and Western intelligence officials. 

After years of rapid growth that saw Wagner play a leading role in Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, the mercenary outfit was facing pressure. Russia’s defense ministry was tightening the noose around the company, starving it of recruitment, finance and weapons. Putin, who long promoted rivalries among his subordinates to prevent succession challenges, was siding with defense chiefs against Prigozhin, a former convict who had grown up in the same St. Petersburg streets as the president. 

A key trigger was the June 10 Russian defense ministry order that all volunteer detachments would have to sign contracts with the government by July 1, a move to bring Wagner under formal military control. Prigozhin refused. 

A video grab shows Yevgeny Prigozhin, center, speaking with Lieutenant General Vladimir Alekseev, right, and Russian Deputy Defense Minister Yunus-Bek Evkurov, left, inside the headquarters of the Russian southern military district in the city of Rostov-on-Don. PHOTO: TELEGRAM/AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES

“Prigozhin was driven to this by his understanding he was being driven into a corner,” said Ruslan Pukhov, director of the Moscow-based Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, a military think tank. “He simply didn’t want to sink into oblivion.”

A day after the deescalation agreement, which pledged that Prigozhin would head to Russia’s closest ally, Belarus, in exchange for the dropping of criminal charges against him, neither the Wagner chief nor Putin has spoken publicly about the mutiny. Shoigu and Gerasimov, whose removal was Prigozhin’s key demand, have remained out of sight. 

As of Sunday afternoon, Wagner remained in charge of the Millerovo military airfield in southern Russia, according to European intelligence officials. It wasn’t clear when and how Prigozhin would leave for Belarus, and how many of his men would follow suit. European intelligence officials said that if Prigozhin goes to Belarus he would be unlikely to stay long, fearing possible reprisals from the Kremlin, and could use the control of the airfields to fly senior Wagner loyalists to the relative safety of the company’s operations in Africa.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Sunday that Wagner troops who didn’t participate in Saturday’s mutiny would be eligible to sign contracts with the ministry of defense but didn’t say what will happen to the many thousands who did.

Opinion is still divided on whether Prigozhin’s aim was to leverage more influence within Putin’s security system or ultimately seize power. Also unclear is whether he coordinated his actions with factions within Russia’s sprawling security services or the Kremlin itself. His column initially faced little resistance and European intelligence officials noted that the Rosvgardia national guard, that reports directly to Putin and is stationed in every Russian Oblast, or state, didn’t have the means to challenge the mercenaries.

Neither the Kremlin nor Russia’s defense ministry responded to requests for comment. 

Prigozhin made his move after state support that once flowed to Wagner was diverted to new private mercenary groups established by state-owned companies such as gas giant Gazprom.

On Saturday, as Prigozhin addressed Russians through audio messages on Telegram, law-enforcement officials raided one of his hotels in St. Petersburg and paraded forged passports bearing his picture, pistols and some four billion rubles, or $48 million, in cash, according to independent Russian news outlets. Prigozhin later said on his telegram channel that the funds were earmarked for salaries and families of fallen soldiers but also secret operations in Ukraine and Africa where Wagner has fighters.

The uneasy truce struck on Saturday saw Wagner fighters roll out of the stronghold cities of Rostov and Voronezh which they had captured with little to no military resistance. Prigozhin himself drove out of Rostov in a black SUV, with admirers cheering him from the sides of the road.

It has not been confirmed that Prigozhin has left Russia. even if he does, he maintains an outsize base of support—not only among his fighters who have dispersed to Ukraine, Belarus and Wagner’s training base in Molkino, Russia—but also among the Russians who admire his courage for openly talking about the country’s endemic corruption. 

The fate of his fighters is less clear. The Kremlin has come out of the weekend’s events looking weaker, and tolerance for any known dissent will only likely shrink. While the agreement says all those who took part in Prigozhin’s uprising will be amnestied, Russia watchers believed the Kremlin is likely poised to root out pockets of Progozhin’s armed supporters quietly over time.

“They’ll get hung, just later,” said Pukhov, the military analyst.

Until recently it seemed unlikely that Prigozhin, a 62-year-old petty criminal-turned-businessman, whose influence was created and sponsored by the Kremlin, would raise the banner of rebellion.

He had entered Kremlin circles with his catering company, Concord, which threw lavish banquets for the St. Petersburg and Moscow elite. He personally poured wine for Putin’s guests such as then-President George W. Bush, and earned lucrative catering contracts for the Russian military. Those who knew him during his rise knew him as a political animal with wild ambitions for money and power. 

Prigozhin built a unit of armed men to protect his business interests and provide leverage against some of Putin’s acolytes in Russia’s almost-feudal political system. This group evolved into Wagner. He also set up the “troll farms” that sought to influence the 2016 U.S. elections. 

As Wagner chief, Prigozhin was crucial to Putin’s efforts to extend Russia’s global interests. Wagner helped pro-Russian forces in the Donbas region of Ukraine after the 2014 annexation of Crimea and helped secure territory for the Syrian regime of President Bashar al-Assad, a Putin ally. In 2018, as Wagner forces advanced toward positions held by U.S. soldiers near Deir Ezzour, American commanders asked the Russian defense ministry to identify the soldiers. The defense ministry responded that it didn’t know. When U.S. troops opened fire, killing more than 100 mercenaries, Prigozhin blamed Shoigu, igniting their feud. 

Wagner’s forces deployed to several African nations, offering security for regimes in return for lucrative mining concessions. As Putin’s plans for a Blitzkrieg strike on Kyiv failed, he tapped Prigozhin to rapidly expand Wagner’s ranks and bolster Russia’s flailing conventional forces. Wagner’s relative successes on the battlefield prompted some U.S. officials to wonder if he could replace Putin. 

Until September last year, Prigozhin and the Kremlin denied the Wagner Group existed. The man who spent a total of nine years in Soviet prisons was hiring top London and New York lawyers to sue those who linked him to the firm. Mark Galeotti, an expert on Russian organized crime and honorary professor at University College London, said Prigozhin is still driven by the precepts of the macho code of the vorovski mir, or “thieves world” he learned in jail: “To look after your own, never forget a slight and never back down.”  

Elite Fracture

The unseen tensions between Wagner and Russia’s military exploded into public view in February when Prigozhin publicly complained that the defense ministry had limited the provision of weapons and ammunition for his 50,000-strong force that had fought in Bakhmut, a small town that had become the most critical front line of the Ukraine invasion. 

Wagner’s forces led Bakhmut’s capture in May, Russia’s first material advance in 10 months, but the victory came at a cost of over 20,000 Wagner lives, according to Prigozhin’s public tally. As Wagner troops raised flags in the town center, Prigozhin appeared in a video among the devastation to address Shoigu and Gerasimov directly: “Because of their whims, five times more guys than had been supposed to die have died. They will be held responsible for their actions, which in Russian are called crimes.”

The news boosted Prigozhin in his clash with the defense ministry. Putin meanwhile kept switching between the two sides as military fortunes ebbed and flowed. He promoted generals who appeared to be aligned with Prigozhin, then fired them and appeared to move more decisively behind Shoigu and Gerasimov.

Ukrainian commanders meanwhile sought to widen the divide, with Gen. Valeriy Zaluzhniy, Ukraine’s military commander-in-chief, lauding Gerasimov’s military talents, while Maj. Gen. Kyrylo Budanov, head of Ukraine’s GUR military intelligence, used TV interviews to compliment Prigozhin.

Wagner had shown “utmost effectiveness, unlike the Russian army, which has shown its utmost lack of effectiveness,” Budanov said, stressing that Shoigu was jealous of Prigozhin’s success. 

By early June, Wagner and Russia’s regular army were behaving as if they were enemy forces. 

Prigozhin said his fighters’ escape routes from Bakhmut were mined by Ministry of Defense troops. When Wagner came to clear the path, they were fired upon by the military, according to Prigozhin. Russian military officials said that wasn’t true.

In retaliation, on June 5, Wagner arrested and filmed a Russian army lieutenant colonel who said he had ordered his troops to shoot at its mercenaries. It was “due to personal hostility,” said the detained officer, his nose bloodied.

On June 10, Shoigu issued an order that openly tried to poach Prigozhin’s fighters, offering individual contracts to private volunteers directly with his ministry. “Prigozhin saw this move as an attempt at checkmate,” said one European intelligence official.

Five days later, a Russian paratrooper division showed pictures of Syrian volunteers, who long reported to Wagner, now fighting with regular forces.

When Prigozhin mounted his stunning Saturday takeover of the Rostov military command post, he dispatched a 5,000 strong column led by a key commander named Dmitry Utkin, known for his tattoos of Nazi symbols, toward the capital. By then Prigozhin said Wagner’s strength had been whittled down to 25,000 men. 

Wagner forces shot down six Russian helicopters and an IL-22 airborne command-center plane, killing 13 airmen, according to Russian military analysts—deaths that will not be quickly forgotten, particularly inside the Russian air force, which is commanded by Prigozhin’s onetime ally Gen. Sergei Surovikin. 

Damage included bridges and roads destroyed by authorities that aimed to stop Wagner’s march, and a jet-fuel depot that was hit and burned down in the city of Voronezh.

Prigozhin late Saturday night left the headquarters of the Southern Military District in Rostov, to an unknown destination. Analysts said the efforts to absorb the Wagner fighters into conventional forces and strip Prigozhin or cash and influence would now accelerate.   

Analysts said Putin’s silence suggested he was focused on shoring up support among the fractured elite. One intelligence official said the president’s power had been weakened to such an extent that it had reduced the threat of nuclear conflict, since subordinates would be less likely to enact his orders. 

A photo from a highway in Moscow, posted onto Twitter by the BBC’s Russia correspondent, was widely shared on Sunday, as it seemed to sum up some residents’ feelings: a car’s back window painted with large white letters in English: “WTF WAS THAT?”

ATTACHMENT FIVE – From CNN (embedded in timeline, below)

PRIGOZHIN SAYS HIS FORCES "ARE TURNING OUR COLUMNS AROUND," AMID CLAIMS OF DEAL BROKERED BY LUKASHENKO

From CNN's Katharina Krebs and Nathan Hodge, 1:57 p.m. ET, June 24, 2023

Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin published a new audio recording Saturday claiming he was turning his forces around from a march toward Moscow. 

“We turning our columns around and going back in the other direction toward our field camps, in accordance with the plan,” he said in a message on Telegram.

The announcement comes as the Belarusian government claimed President Alexander Lukashenko had reached a deal with Wagner boss to halt the march of his forces on Moscow. 

AND OUR COMBINED TIMELINE – From Time, the New York Times, the Guardian U.K., the Washington Post, CNN, the Wall Street Journal, Fox News, the Associated Press... partisan mouthpieces ranging from the Huffington Post (on the left), Newsmax and the Washington Times (on the right) and, in between numerous other media suppliers, large and small, American and global; as, for example, the Independent U.K. and BBC, Al Jazeera (Qatar), Meduza (Latvia) and the Moscow Times (presumably published from some place other than Moscow).

The selections, including excerpts within larger articles, have been arranged in chronological order... sort of, given that some were published in reverse order in the original format, some were dated but untimed, a few neither time, nor dated; and there is also some potential for confusion where it was not noted whether the placement was according to EDT (New York) time, Greenwich Mean (mostly the English) and a few that were posted according to Moscow time. Be forwarned.

Many, especially from the larger mediots, containd charts, graphs maps and many, many photographs, which can be accessed by going back to the original websites.

We begin with a few older selections from BEFORE the INSURRECTION, including historical excerpts from larger, current articles:

From the BBC

Yevgeny Prigozhin: Wagner chief blames war on defence minister

Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu has been blamed for starting war

By Steve Rosenberg. Russia Editor, Moscow

We're used to hearing Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin ranting and raving at Russia's military leadership - particularly at defence minister Sergei Shoigu - for problems on the battlefield.

Public infighting between the Wagner mercenary group and the Ministry of Defence isn't new.

But this is.

In his latest video tirade via Telegram, Prigozhin blames Shoigu for starting Russia's war in Ukraine in February last year.

Speaking first about the fighting in eastern Ukraine that began in 2014 after Russia's military intervention, Prigozhin said: "We were hitting them, and they were hitting us. That's how it went on for those eight long years, from 2014 to 2022. Sometimes the number of skirmishes would increase, sometimes decrease."

"On 24 February [2022] there was nothing extraordinary happening there. Now the Ministry of Defence is trying to deceive the public, deceive the president and tell a story that there was some crazy aggression by Ukraine, that - together with the whole Nato bloc - Ukraine was planning to attack us.

"The war was needed... so that Shoigu could become a Marshal, so that he could get a second Hero Star… the war wasn't for demilitarising or de-nazifying Ukraine. It was needed for an extra star."

Prigozhin also blamed the war on oligarchs, condemning "the clan which in practice rules Russia today".

Strong words. But will they have consequences?

That depends on the nature of Prigozhin's current relationship with President Vladimir Putin. And no-one's quite sure what that is right now.

· Russia and Wagner clash over Ukraine attack claims

· From Putin's chef to head of Russia's private army

Is the tough-talking angry Prigozhin we see and hear on Telegram a fully-fledged Kremlin project? If so, his blame the war on Shoigu and oligarchs rant could be designed to shield Putin from public criticism, while offering the Kremlin a possible way out of a conflict that hasn't gone to plan, without damaging the president or the political system.

Prigozhin has named the fall-guys… and they don't include Putin.

But would that work?

After all, Putin is so closely associated with this war. In his address to the nation on 24 February 2022, the Kremlin leader made it clear that it was his decision to launch the so-called "special military operation", the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Plus, arguing that the president has been woefully deceived by a minister he appointed doesn't reflect glowingly on the man at the top.

True, in Russia the Kremlin controls the media landscape and the messaging. If TV channels and pro-Kremlin military bloggers here were to transmit such an interpretation, many Russians would accept it.

But what if Yevgeny Prigozhin's outburst wasn't coordinated with the Kremlin?

What if he's acquired political ambitions of his own? Or concluded that, having made powerful enemies within the Russian elite (especially the military) for him attack is the best form of defence? Even if it means going off-message.

A 'rogue' Prigozhin risks rocking the boat - and Russia's political system - by undermining the Kremlin's messaging.

Only last week Putin repeated the need (as he sees it) to "demilitarise" and "de-nazify" Ukraine. Prigozhin's latest comments contradict that argument.

AND...

From 2022: Ros Atkins on... Putin’s false Nazi claims about Ukraine

I've written before that making sense of Russian politics is like trying to do a giant jigsaw puzzle with most of the pieces missing. You attempt to connect the clues, but you're never quite sure what the final picture will be.

I'm still puzzling out Prigozhin.

But, aside from the Wagner chief, there are other interesting pieces of the Russian jigsaw which hint at a different outcome.

For example, as badly as things have gone for the Kremlin in Ukraine, might Moscow declare "mission accomplished"?

President Putin's spokesman Dmitry Peskov recently claimed that "the aim [of demilitarising Ukraine] has largely been achieved", arguing that Ukraine has less and less of its own armaments and is increasingly reliant on weapons from abroad.

And earlier this month more than 20 Ukrainian soldiers, members of the Azov regiment, went on trial in southern Russia. Russia calls Azov a "terrorist group" that harbours neo-Nazis. Could it portray the case as "de-nazification" and stop there?

But there are other indications that "stopping" is not in Putin's plans. In recent appearances on TV, he's come across as confident of victory and dismissive of Ukraine's counter-offensive.

"The enemy is suffering major losses," Putin told a Russian TV reporter this week, adding: "The enemy has no chance."

From the SDOC News (san diego)

PUTIN NOW SAYS THAT FEMALE CONVICTS BEGGED TO AID IN THE WAR IN EXCHANGE FOR THE PARDONING OF THEIR CRIMINAL CONVICTIONS

From SDOC News2023-01-26

Yevgeny Prigozhin, the founder of Russia's notorious mercenary organization, the Wagner Group, has indicated he supports allowing convicted women to serve on the front lines in Ukraine. In a letter from Vyacheslav Wegner, Deputy of the Legislative Assembly of the Sverdlovsk region, Prigozhin indicated that he is now prepared to send female inmates into Ukraine. His support extends to positions other than combat support roles. [i]

According to Wegner’s letter published by Prigozhin’s press service, a team of women inmates recently approached Wegner. The women are serving sentences in Russia’s penal colony number 6, IK-6, also known as Black Dolphin prison. Black Dolphin prison is known for housing Russia’s most dangerous killers. [ii]

Despite this, Wegner confidently says that women are,

Ready to go to the zone of a special military operation as signalmen, doctors, nurses, to provide all possible assistance to our servicemen there. [iii]

Prigozhin not only agreed that women should be able to serve in exchange for commuted sentences, but he also took it one step further, stating,

I absolutely agree with you. Not only nurses and signalmen but also in sabotage groups and sniper pairs. Everyone knows that it was widely used. We are working in this direction. There is resistance, but I think we will press on. [iv]

The stipulations for female prisoners would mirror those of males in that Prigozhin says those who agree to fight in the ongoing war shall have their sentences commuted. Some believe the effort to be a desperate attempt to boost Russia’s troop numbers. [v]

Watch the video below for more on the Black Dolphin prison.

Specifically, Olga Romanova, who heads a Russian Non-Governmental Organization (NGO) that protects convicts’ rights, spoke against using inmates. Romanova asserts that many male prisoners who agreed to sign up and fight for 180 days to receive a pardon from Putin have either been “killed, gone missing, or deserted.” [vi]

The recent request to allow women to serve follows the November 2022 revelation by Ukraine’s Head Office of the President, Andrii Yermak. Yermak indicated that many criminals had been sent straight into battle without appropriate protection or weapons, being used as “expendable soldiers” or “cannon fodder.” [vii]

Many say Wagner will “have as little regard for their [female inmates'] lives as they do for the lives of the convicted male criminals currently serving on the front lines in Bakhmut.” Ukrainians assert that Russian ‘camels’ are equipped only with machine guns, no armor or helmet, to raid the Ukrainian’s positions. [vii]

Women's willingness to sign-up may also be a result of the much-discussed conditions of Russia's prisons, particularly for women. One former inmate, Nadezhda Tolokonnikova, shared that women had to work 16 to 17 hours a day while incarcerated. In addition, they were only allotted a single day off every eight weeks. Many inmates suffer abuse and beatings. [viii]

From the Economist, Jun 8th 2023

How drugs and alcohol have fuelled soldiers for centuries

Russians in Ukraine seem to rely on copious amounts of liquor and, in some cases, hard drugs

Ukrainian forces have often attributed the poor performance of Russian soldiers since the invasion last year to drunkenness. Armies reflect their societies and alcoholism caused by excessive vodka consumption has long been a reason for the chronically low life expectancy of Russian men (about 64). But there is nothing unusual about soldiers hitting the booze—or even something stronger. Since ancient times, when Greek hoplites and Roman legionaries went into battle fuelled by wine, alcohol has been both the soldier’s best friend and sometimes his mortal enemy.

As Lukasz Kamiensky argues in his wide-ranging “Shooting Up: A History of Drugs in Warfare”, front-line soldiers experience a degree of stress that is almost unimaginable to civilians. They are expected to cope with the fear of their own demise, the horror of death around them and the obligation to kill.

RUMOURS of REVOLUTION: Monday, June 19 to Friday, June 24

Monday, June 19th

From UnHerd

The pantomime is over for Prigozhin

The Wagner Group leader won't survive on theatrics

BY IAN GARNER

"Prigozhin is a busted flush." Prigozhin/Telegram

Yevgeny Prigozhin, the vitriolic and confrontational leader of the Wagner “Private Military Company”, has come to play a leading role in the bitter war of words between the country’s nationalists and armed forces. For months, he has been lobbing increasingly fiery rhetorical grenades at defence chief Sergei Shoigu’s Army and Ministry of Defence, which he accuses of incompetence and corruption, and blames for Russia’s floundering war effort.

Western pundits were agog when Prigozhin appeared to go so far as to criticise Putin, promising to remove his forces from the line and threatening Shoigu with execution. He even appeared to label Putin “grandpa” — a nickname made popular by jailed opposition leader Alexey Navalny — in a caustic video. Many wonder whether Wagner’s leader might attempt to seize control of the military leadership or even launch a coup. But recent developments suggest that this pantomime is about to end. Prigozhin’s power is to be curtailed — and there’s little he can do about it.

Prigozhin, an ex-convict known as “Putin’s chef”, has long been a master self-publicist. His Wagner Group, whose state connections were until recently officially denied, is an exquisitely branded enterprise housed in a glass office tower in St. Petersburg. The group’s social media presence is no less brazen. The online world of the Wagner “musicians”, as the organisation’s soldiers are known, is made up of thousands of gloomy TikTok videos displaying balaclava-wearing, skull-emblazoned troops rattling off machine gun rounds and rockets. Wagner musicians and their online fans soundtrack videos of war crimes and violent fighting with uber-macho hip hop beats and ceaseless nationalist and racist commentary about the Ukrainian enemy. In this world, morality and ethics seem to have been cast aside in favour of macabre destruction for its own sake.

Prigozhin channels this violence in selfie videos released to Telegram channels with hundreds of thousands of followers, promising to wreak havoc against the state’s enemies and — if he doesn’t get the arms, troops, and control he wants — against the state itself. The threat of internecine violence is not rhetorical. Last week, Wagner forces in occupied Ukraine “arrested” a senior Russian Army officer who had purportedly ordered his forces to fire on Wagner positions. The officer’s interrogation was published on Prigozhin’s channel: he was brazenly baiting his nemesis. Wagner and the Army, it seemed, were at war.

The Russian state’s elite cliques and power blocs have long engaged in bitter power struggles to position themselves to reap financial rewards, curry favour with Vladimir Putin, and cement their own status. Typically, Putin has watched on from the sidelines while his underlings tear chunks out of one another. Eventually, the conflict ends in a moment of public political theatre as the losing “villain” is publicly shamed. Such has been Putin’s modus operandi since the arrest and televised trial of the oil baron Mikhail Khodorkovsky in 2003. Rarely does the show begin, however, before the outcome is determined.

Prigozhin, though, has pre-emptively brought the battle into the open. The nature of social media allows Prigozhin’s fans — and enemies — to participate in these conflicts in a way that would not have been possible two decades ago. Russia’s nationalists form a baying crowd that watches on and even — by liking, sharing, and commenting on materials — amplifies elite splits. On Grey Zone, a Russian Telegram channel associated with Wagner, any mention of Shoigu — Putin’s long-time ally — is received by users with raucous mockery: “What’s he smoking?”; “F*cking liar”; “What a clown!!” Meanwhile, the channel’s almost 500,000 followers pour adulation on the muzhiki — macho men — who have died fighting or committed acts of vandalism or criminality at the front. The overwhelmingly male and young audience of this sort of content thrives on violence and macho adulation.

Almost every man in the Wagner Group owes Prigozhin a personal debt. By offering prisoners a means to escape from jail, and the rural poor hefty salaries in return for service, he has cultivated a sense of obligation among his troops. And by releasing materials directly to the online public, he strives to build a broader base of public support, as well as to strengthen the loyalty of his acolytes, The strategy is not necessarily misguided: the Russian public delights in such pantomime political theatrics.

However, Prigozhin may be about to discover the limits of the support that can be built through memes and virality. Shoigu might be the online nemesis of Wagner followers, but Prigozhin himself barely features in their discussions. At best he will sometimes be referred to as muzhik, but he is often derided as vain, foolish, or arrogant. His followers prize manhood, masculinity, and violence more than any particular leaders: they are nihilists out for themselves, not the sort of citizens who will die for their leader’s cause.

This self-interested support has given Putin an easy means to drop the final curtain on Prigozhin’s theatrics. In a meeting last week, he confirmed that all frontline troops — including those attached to Prigozhin and Wagner — will be forced to sign a contract with the state by 1 July. “If there’s no contract with the state,” explained Putin, “there can be no social guarantees [for the troops].” In other words, the state is about to usurp Prigozhin’s sole hold over Wagner: the promise that he can provide money, support, and freedom to the men under his command.

Prigozhin has responded with total denial, declaring that “Wagner will not sign any contracts with Shoigu”. Fellow nationalist leaders who have been critical of the MoD have accused him of “mutiny” for this refusal, and other elite powerbrokers have sided against him. While his troops are tied up at the front in Ukraine, sustaining enormous casualties and consuming vast resources as they do Putin’s dirty work, Prigozhin has no recourse. There is no hope of a mass mutiny without broader public support or the promise that Prigozhin can give his men something the state cannot. Simply put, neither Prigozhin’s soldiers nor the wider public have any reason to go into battle for him. If a power grab was ever on the cards, the chance is gone: Prigozhin is a busted flush.

In some senses, Prigozhin is an embodiment of the Putin era’s postmodern culture, in which reality is created, distorted, and destroyed momentarily by an arbitrary state. He stands for no ideas, cannot build elite coalitions, and alienates the general public. Through money, force of will, and outlandish PR, he has turned himself into a heavyweight — but his importance will likely diminish now the state has started to turn the screws. Distracted by the next scene in Russia’s pantomime of the absurd, sympathetic nationalists will move onto the next man to promise them an outlet for their frustration and rage. For now, Putin, the conductor of a cacophonous orchestra that plays far louder than Wagner’s “musicians” ever can, remains above the fray. If there have been questions raised about the Russian president’s ability to control the narrative of his war in Ukraine, he is showing that he remains — for now — in full control.

Thursday, June 22nd

From the Kyev Post (Ukraine)

‘We Wake Up, and Crimea Is Already Ukrainian’ – Wagner Сhief Prigozhin

Wagner PMC chief confirms Ukrainian Army’s successes in its counteroffensive, accuses Russian army boss of negligence and direct betrayal of the Kremlin.

by the Kyiv Post | June 22, 2023, 2:22 pm | 

Yevheniy Prigozhin, head of the Wagner PMC mercenary group, loosed a rhetorical salvo against Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu on Thursday, claiming Ukraine’s army is pushing the Kremlin’s forces back at multiple locations and that top military leaders in Moscow are criminally negligent and threaten the security of the Russian state.

Prigozhin made the comments published on internet platforms on June 21 in response to Wednesday announcements by Ukrainian officials that Kyiv’s summer offensive was “going according to plan.” The Russian state media has widely reported that Ukrainian attacks are, purportedly, failing with heavy losses.

Prigozhin contradicted that official Russian narrative, saying the Ukrainian army has in fact seen successes infighting in the Zaporizhzhia Region, and named three villages recently lost by Russian forces.

"I cannot comment in any way on how the offensive is going by the Ukrainian armed forces. I can tell what is happening at our line of contact,” Prigozhin said. Ukrainian troops had recently taken control of the villages Pyatykhatky, Rabotyne and Urozhaine, he said.

Ukraine’s government by Thursday morning had not confirmed the liberation of Rabotyne and Urozhaine. Independent Ukrainian news reports of the capture of Pyatykhatky surfaced over the weekend and were confirmed by Ukraine’s Joint Forces South on Monday. 

Prigozhin claimed, without offering evidence, that “above Tokmak” (a city deep behind Russian lines and 30 km to the rear of frontline positions in the Zaporizhzhia sector) a Ukrainian unit of 50-100 men was operating without much interference by the Russian military.

He likewise asserted that Ukrainian army commandos had crossed the Dnipro River in the vicinity of the town Hola Prystan and that Ukrainian regular army units would follow in due course. Russia’s high command was failing to deliver sufficient weapons and ammunition to frontline troops, Prigozhin said.

Russian losses of tactically important villages would, if not halted, reverse most territorial gains managed by Russian forces since the Kremlin invasion of Ukraine in Feb. 2022, Prigozhin warned. 

“Russia will wake up one day and discover that Crimea has also been handed over to the Ukrainians. There is a direct betrayal of Russian interests. It is all happening against the backdrop of losses,” Prigozhin said.

“Troops need to be replenished. One man cannot stand in the line where two or three should stand. All these figures are being concealed. If this goes on, we will be left without the main thing – without Russia.”

Prigozhin singled out Shoigu as particularly responsible for the army’s shortcomings and called Shoigu out for, Prigozhin alleged, professional negligence.

"At what cost are we carrying out ‘special operation’ – at the cost of destruction of the Army…

"For what – so that some ‘Shvonder’ (Shoigu) could get a marshal's star, and his family members would be untouchable? The counterattack by the Ukrainian forces is causing us serious problems and losses. When trouble comes, we may be left without an army and Russia,” Prigozhin said.

Shvonder, a fictional character invented by Russian early 20th-century novelist Mikhail Bulgakov, is well-known across the former Soviet space as the literary archetype of an uneducated and recently appointed Communist boss owing his job solely to mindless and vociferous support of the party line.

Although obscure to most readers of fiction outside Russia, the works of Bulgakov – a member of the Russian aristocratic class displaced by Communist revolutionaries - are still taught in Russian schools as an important piece of Russia’s cultural heritage. Bulgakov was educated in Kyiv but forced to leave his family home there during the Russian Civil War.

From Fox News

TIMELINE OF WAGNER MERCENARY GROUP'S STANDOFF THAT SHOOK PUTIN'S RUSSIA

Wagner mutiny rocks Putin's 20-year rule

By Caitlin McFall 

Wagner Group leader resurfaces for first time since attempted rebellion (Video)

The world watched in shock this weekend as Russian President Vladimir Putin faced the greatest threat to his leadership since he assumed the role more than 20 years ago as Wagner mercenary forces mutinied and looked to storm Moscow. 

But just as quickly as the situation escalated, the threat against Moscow appeared to evaporate after Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin ordered his men to stop their march and instead reportedly head for Belarus following an obscure deal brokered by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko. 

Prigozhin resurfaced for the first time since the agreement was reached Saturday in a Monday audio message posted to his Telegram, though his location remains unclear. 

See how the events unfolded from Friday to Monday (below):

Friday, June 23rd

From Fox News

– Tensions erupted Friday after Prigozhin released a video on Telegram that directly contradicted Russian President Vladimir Putin’s justification for his illegal invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

· The mercenary leader not only said there was no threat from Ukraine against Russia, but that Kyiv had no plans to join the NATO alliance to take up arms against Moscow. He also claimed this misinformation was down to lies supplied by the Ministry of Defense to deceive Putin and Russian society.

– The Wagner leader posted a series of clips in which he also accused the Russian defense ministry of firing a rocket strike upon Wagner mercenaries in Ukraine. 

· Prigozhin called for the ousting of Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu and chief of the general staff, Valery Gerasimov, and said his troops would punish them for their actions.

From Reuters

Russia says West is trying to drive a wedge between it and Kazakhstan, TASS reports

June 23, 20231:27 AM EDTUpdated 6 days ago

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev address the participants of the Russia-Kazakhstan Interregional Cooperation Forum via a video link in Moscow, Russia November 28, 2022. Sputnik/Mikhail Klimentyev/Kremlin via REUTERS/File photo

June 23 (Reuters) - Russia's security council accused the West on Friday of trying to drive a wedge between Russia and Kazakhstan by interfering in the affairs of sovereign nations, Russia's TASS reported.

The comments reported by TASS came on the day security council secretary Nikolai Patrushev visited Kazakhstan to meet counterparts from across the former Soviet Central Asian region.

"The United States and their allies are trying to support nationalist sentiment, spreading lies, manipulating public opinion, including through the internet and social networks," TASS quoted Patrushev's deputy, Alexander Shevtsov, as saying in Almaty.

Oil-rich Kazakhstan, Russia's long-time ally and close economic partner, has refused to support Moscow's invasion of Ukraine and has said it would comply with Western sanctions against Russia.

From Meduza.io (Latvia) Friday, 6/23/23 1626

Late on Friday, June 23, 2023, Wagner Group mercenary leader Yevgeny Prigozhin released a video on Telegram purportedly showing the aftermath of a Russian Defense Ministry missile attack against his fighters at a “rear base.”

In a series of audio clips, Prigozhin subsequently announced that he would lead an armed campaign to “punish” the Defense Ministry officials supposedly responsible for the attack.

Prigozhin insists that he is waging a “march of justice,” not a coup, but the FSB soon announced a criminal case to investigate his “incitement to armed insurrection.”

MARCH of the MERCENARIES:

Saturday, June 25th

From Fox News

– By early Saturday Prigozhin said his forces had crossed the Ukraine-Russia border and had taken control of the military headquarters in the southern Russian city of Rostov-on-Don.

· Images and videos surfaced showing Wagner mercenaries, tanks and vehicles in the city that it apparently took without a fight from Russian citizens or forces.

· The city was a significant take for Prigozhin as it is not only the largest city in southern Russia but also the headquarters of the Russian southern military district command, whose 58th Combined Arms Army is fighting in southern Ukraine.– As many as 25,000 Wagner mercenaries were alleged to have followed Prigozhin into Russia to not only take the southern city but to push north towards the Voronezh region on their eventual way to Moscow. 

· Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) responded by launching a criminal investigation against Prigozhin and accused him of launching what amounted to a mutiny.

· In a statement the FSB called Prigozhin’s actions a "stab in the back" to all Russian soldiers and urged Wagner troops "not to make irreparable mistakes, to stop any forceful actions against the Russian people, not to carry out the criminal and treacherous orders of Prigozhin, and to take measures to detain him."

· Prigozhin insisted his rebellion was not "a military coup" but a "march of justice."– By 10 a.m. Putin gave a televised address calling Prigozhin’s actions an "armed mutiny" and a "knife in the back of our country and our people," though he never named Prigozhin directly. 

· "Inflated ambitions and personal interests have led to treason — treason against our country, our people and the common cause which Wagner Group soldiers and commanders were fighting and dying for shoulder to shoulder, together with our other units and troops," he said.  "Their memory and glory have also been betrayed by those who are attempting to stage a revolt and are pushing the country towards anarchy and fratricide — and ultimately, towards defeat and surrender."

– Reports began to surface that Wagner forces had entered the Voronezh region and shortly after 11:40, and the governor of the region, Aleksandr Gusev, took to Telegram to say that Russian forces were "conducting necessary operational and combat activities" in a "counterterrorism operation," reported the Kyiv Independent. 

– Chechen leader and Putin ally Ramzan Kadyrov said that Chechen forces had been sent to the "conflict zones" in Russia.

· Reporting later suggested some 3,000 Chechen forces in Ukraine had been dispatched to Russia.– Prigozhin responded to Putin’s address in a video message posted to his Telegram and said his Wagner forces would not back down "because we don't want the country to continue living in corruption, deceit, and bureaucracy."

· Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin urged residents to stay indoors and declared Monday a day off work as the Russian National Guard worked to defend the city from a possible attack.

· A machine gun position was set up by Russian soldiers on the southwest edge of Moscow as armed police gathered south of the city on the M4 highway, which was being used by Wagner mercenaries to advance.

– The U.S. and its NATO allies said they were closely monitoring the situation.

– By 1:30 p.m., Putin's office announced he had held phone conversations with the leaders of Belarus, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan regarding the "situation" in Russia.

– Around 4 p.m., reports began to surface alleging that Russian military helicopters had opened fire on a convoy of Wagner mercenaries that were reportedly more than halfway towards Moscow.

· Russian news outlet Tass reported that Wagner forces were offered amnesty if they laid down their weapons, though the report has since been taken down.– By 4 p.m., Lukashenko claimed he brokered a deal between Putin and Prigozhin as Wagner forces were reported to have reached an area known as Yelets, roughly 250 miles south of Moscow.

– Around 8:30 p.m. Moscow time, Prigozhin released an audio message through his press service’s Telegram account that said that he had decided to end the mutiny and turn his troops around to avoid more bloodshed.

· "They wanted to disband the Wagner military company. We embarked on a march of justice on June 23. In 24-hours we got to within 200 km [125 miles] of Moscow. In this time we did not spill a single drop of our fighters' blood," he said according to a translation by Reuters. "Now the moment has come when blood could be spilled. Understanding responsibility [for the chance] that Russian blood will be spilled on one side, we are turning our columns around and going back to field camps as planned."

· Prigozhin and his Wagner forces that joined in the rebellion have allegedly been offered safe heaven in Belarus, though the terms of the agreement remain unclear.

· Remaining Wagner forces in Ukraine that did not join the mutiny will be absorbed in Russia's military.

Reuters contributed to this report. 

From Al Jazeera

TIMELINE: HOW WAGNER GROUP’S REVOLT AGAINST RUSSIA UNFOLDED

Feud with Wagner Group owner Yevgeny Prigozhin is seen as the biggest threat Russian President Vladimir Putin has faced to his 22-year rule.

Published On 24 Jun 2023

Mutinous Russian mercenary fighters from the Wagner Group were making their way to the capital before their leader Yevgeny Prigozhin ordered their to return to base to avoid bloodshed.

This latest incident with Prigozhin in a months-long feud with Russia’s defence ministry over the fight in Ukraine was the biggest threat President Vladimir Putin has faced in his 22-year rule.

See also:

Wagner mutiny reflects fault lines in Russia: Analysts

Wagner revolt in Russia dims outlook for its operations in Africa

Wagner boss calls off march on Moscow, agrees to exile in Belarus

Ukraine responds to Wagner mutiny in Russia with caution, hope

The group rose to prominence after taking an increasingly visible role in the war in Ukraine, including hoisting the Russian flag in the city of Bakhmut after a months-long battle.

Here is Al Jazeera’s timeline of how the events unfolded since Friday:

Friday, June 23

· Prigozhin releases a video stepping up his feud with Russia’s military top brass and for the first time, rejects Putin’s core justification for invading Ukraine.

· In a series of subsequent audio recordings posted on Telegram, Prigozhin says the “evil” of Russia’s military leadership “must be stopped” and his Wagner mercenary force will lead a “march for justice” against the Russian military. Who is Prigozhin, the Wagner chief taking on Russia’s military?

· Russia’s FSB security service responds by opening a criminal case against Prigozhin, announcing the 62-year-old called for armed mutiny against the state.

· The deputy commander of Russia’s Ukraine campaign, General Sergey Surovikin, urges Wagner’s forces to give up their opposition to the military leadership and return to their bases.

Saturday, June 24

· Prigozhin says his men crossed the border from Ukraine into Russia and are ready to go “all the way” against the Russian military.

· Wagner fighters entered the southern Russian city of Rostov-on-Don, Prigozhin said in an audio recording posted on Telegram.

· The governor of southern Russia’s Rostov region adjoining Ukraine tells residents to remain calm and stay indoors as it becomes clear that Wagner forces have taken control of the city.

· Prigozhin says his fighters captured the army headquarters in Rostov-on-Don “without firing a single shot” and claims to have the support of locals.

· Russian’s defence ministry issues a statement appealing to Wagner fighters to abandon Prigozhin, saying they have been “deceived and dragged into a criminal adventure”. Putin makes a televised address promising to crush what he calls an “armed mutiny”. He accuses Prigozhin of “treason” and a “stab in the back”.

· Russian military helicopters open fire on a convoy of rebel mercenaries already more than halfway to Moscow in a lightning advance after seizing Rostov overnight.

· Sergei Naryshkin, head of Russia’s SVR foreign intelligence service, says it is clear that Prigozhin’s attempt to destabilise society and ignite a fratricidal civil war has failed, TASS news agency reports.

· Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov, a Putin ally, says his forces are ready to help put down the revolt by Prigozhin and to use harsh methods if necessary.

· Russian soldiers set up a machine gun position on the southwest edge of Moscow, according to photographs published by the Vedomosti newspaper.

· The White House says US President Joe Biden has spoken with the leaders of France, Germany and the United Kingdom, and that they have affirmed their support for Ukraine.

· Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy called the armed uprising led by Wagner a clear sign of the weakness of Putin and his invasion of Ukraine.

· Putin signs a law permitting 30-day detentions for breaking martial law in places where it has been imposed, the RIA news agency reports.

· Wagner mercenaries are promised an amnesty if they lay down their weapons “but they should do it fast”, the TASS news agency cites lawmaker Pavel Krasheninnikov as saying.

· The Russian foreign ministry cautioned Western countries against using the “internal situation in Russia for achieving their Russophobic goals”.

· The office of Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko says he brokered a deal with Prigozhin who has agreed to de-escalate the situation.

· Prigozhin and all of his fighters vacate Russia’s military headquarters in Rostov-on-Don.

· Russian government spokesman Dmitry Peskov says a mutiny attempt by Wagner will not affect the military offensive in Ukraine.

· Prigozhin will now go and live in Belarus and no charges will be brought against him. Wagner fighters who did not participate in the march on Moscow will be offered military contracts.

From the Moscow Times

TIMELINE: PRIGOZHIN’S ESCALATING STANDOFF WITH RUSSIA’S MILITARY

Updated: June 24, 2023

A former convict turned Kremlin caterer, Yevgeny Prigozhin and his shadowy private military group Wagner have taken a prominent role in Russia’s 16-month offensive on Ukraine.

Friction between Prigozhin and the Russian Defense Ministry has risen as the war has dragged on, ultimately reaching a breaking point Friday when Prigozhin accused military leaders of striking Wagner camps and launched an armed insurrection.

Below is a timeline of Prigozhin’s often expletive-laden confrontations with the Russian military that have boiled over into the currently unfolding rebellion against the Defense Ministry.

September-October 2022

Prigozhin issued his first criticism of Russia’s Defense Ministry after he publicly admitted to being the founder of Wagner and President Vladimir Putin announced a “partial” mobilization.

Prigozhin joined the Kremlin-allied Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov in arguing that Russia’s military should primarily mobilize members of the security and state services instead of civilians.

“Ramzan, you’re the man, fire away,” Prigozhin said through his press service in an Oct. 1 post slamming the Russian forces’ withdrawal from occupied Ukrainian territories. And then, betraywl!

“All these scumbags [in the Russian military should be sent] to the frontline with guns and bare feet,” Prigozhin said.

The discontent was deemed significant enough to be included in U.S. President Joe Biden’s daily intelligence briefing, The Washington Post reported in October, citing anonymous sources.

It said Prigozhin had felt comfortable enough to voice his frustration about the Defense Ministry and Shoigu directly to Putin, in a sign of his rising influence. Prigozhin denied communicating personally with Putin at the time.

January-February 2023

After briefly feuding with the governor of Russia’s second city of St. Petersburg where Wagner later opened its headquarters, Prigozhin stepped up his criticism of the military’s war effort.

The Wagner founder raised concerns about the Russian forces’ slow progress amid heavy battles in the eastern Ukrainian cities of Bakhmut and Soledar. He also accused the Russian military of attempting to “steal” victories from Wagner.

Prigozhin had spearheaded Wagner’s months-long efforts to capture Bakhmut, a key symbolic prize for Russia despite its relative lack of strategic importance. 

In February, after announcing the end of Wagner’s prisoner recruitment, Prigozhin slammed Russia’s “monstrous” military bureaucracy and leadership for low supplies of munitions that had slowed progress in Bakhmut.

"This can be equated with high treason," Prigozhin said in one of the first direct accusations.

After calling on Russians to press the top brass for stockpiles, Prigozhin said the Defense Ministry had relented and announced the shipment of ammunition.

March-April 2023

The truce appeared to be short-lived as Prigozhin again claimed “betrayal” over the military’s continuing lack of deliveries to Wagner mercenaries.

“In order to stop me from asking for ammunition, [Russia’s government] turned off all special phone lines […] and blocked all passes to the decision-making offices,” Prigozhin said.

Wagner Boss 'Cut Off' From Official Channels After Public Ammo Plea

Russian lawmakers passed legislation introducing long jail terms for anyone criticizing mercenaries in a move dismissed by Prigozhin, who argued that Russians should be free to criticize top military commanders.

May-June 2023

The arms delivery saga has escalated after Prigozhin — surrounded by the bodies of dead Wagner soldiers — threatened to pull out of Bakhmut.

“Shoigu, Gerasimov, where the f*ck is the ammunition?” he fumed, claiming days later that the Russian army had “promised” him armaments.

Prigozhin later claimed that Russia’s Defense Ministry broke that promise and threatened to charge Wagner with treason if they withdrew from Bakhmut.

He accused the Russian army units of fleeing their positions due to “stupid” and “criminal” senior military commanders’ orders.

As one of his last stands, Prigozhin refused the Defense Ministry’s orders for “volunteer detachments” to sign contracts with the military by July 1. The Akhmat military unit was the first to sign that contract, signaling the Chechen leader Kadyrov shifting alliances away from Prigozhin and back into the Kremlin’s fold.

Finally, hours before announcing the rebellion against military leadership on Friday night, Prigozhin questioned the leadership’s casus belli for invading Ukraine and escalated his criticism of Shoigu for “poorly planning” the war and “embarrassing” Russia’s military.

“Shoigu killed thousands of the most combat-ready Russian soldiers in the first days of the war,” he charged.

“The mentally ill scumbags decided ‘It’s okay, we’ll throw in a few thousand more Russian men as ‘cannon fodder.’ ‘They’ll die under artillery fire, but we’ll get what we want’,” Prigozhin continued.

“That’s why it has become a protracted war.”

From ABC News (Australia)

WAGNER MERCENARIES TURN AWAY FROM MOSCOW AFTER BELARUS BROKERS DEAL BETWEEN PUTIN AND PRIGOZHIN — AS IT HAPPENED

By Tom Williams, Dan Nancarrow, Claudia Williams, Brianna Morris-Grant and Jacqueline Howard

A timeline of the crisis (times reversed as is not uncommon Down Under)...

Sat. 4:55pm

By Jacqueline Howard

Wagner Group head Yevgeny Prigozhin says he has ordered his forces to turn back from Moscow due to the risk of bloodshed after talks with Belarusian president and Putin ally Alexander Lukashenko.

Sat. 3:34pm

By Jacqueline Howard

While we wait to hear from Putin, let's take stock of what happened in Russia in the last 24 hours or so.

· On Friday, the leader of Wagner, a private mercenary group,  released a video stepping up his feud with Russia's military top brass, calling for a "march for justice" against the Russian military.

· Russia's FSB security service responded by opening a criminal case against Prigozhin, saying he had called for armed mutiny.

· By Saturday morning, Prigozhin said his men had crossed the border from Ukraine into Russia and were ready to go "all the way" against the Russian military.

· Wagner fighters took control of the southern Russian city of Rostov, including the military base which plays a significant role in the support of Russian forces on the frontline in Ukraine.

· Later, Wagner fighters are reported to have taken control of all military facilities in the city of Voronezh, about 500km south of Moscow.

· Putin vowed to crush the "armed mutiny" in a televised address. He accused Prigozhin of "treason" and a "stab in the back".

· A counter-terrorism operation is announced, and roadblocks were set up around Moscow. Authorities advised citizens to remain home and mass outdoor events for the next week were cancelled.

· The office of Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko announced a deal had been brokered with Prigozhin who agreed to de-escalate the situation to avoid bloodshed.

· Prigozhin said his forces had turned back and were heading to their field camps, after marching to within 200km of Moscow.

Sat. 2:48pm

By Jacqueline Howard

Precisely what went down in the negotiations between Wagner head Yevgeny Prigozhin and Belarusian president Alexander Lukashenko is not yet clear.

Mr Lukashenko's office said he was brokering a deal with Prigozhin with the agreement of Russian President Vladimir Putin.

According to the Google translation of the statement on the Belarusian presidential office Telegram post announcing the deal, an element of the the talks included "security guarantees for the Wagner fighters".

A further announcement says Lukashenko has informed Putin of the outcomes of the talks.

At this stage, we are yet to hear from the Russian president himself.

The BBC has read out an English translation of Prigozhin's audio message that he posted to Telegram, in which he announces the halt of the march on Moscow.

"They wanted to disband the Wagner. On the 23rd of June, we went out on a 'Justice March'," Prigozhin says.

"Within a day we were just 200km away from Moscow. During that time, we did not spill a single drop of blood of our fighters."

"Now the moment has come when blood can be spilled. Therefore, understanding all the responsibility for the fact that Russian blood will be spilled on one of the sides, we are turning our columns around and leaving in the opposite direction, to our field camps according to the plan."

Prigozhin orders end to march on Moscow

Sat. 1:35pm

By Jacqueline Howard

Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin has recorded an audio message posted to his Telegram channel in which he says he has ordered his mercenary forces to turn back from its approach to Moscow.

Prigozhin said he gave the order because of the risk of blood being spilled.

He said his forces had advanced to within 200km of Moscow in the last 24 hours.

Prigozhin agrees to de-escalation, Belarus says

Sat. 1:27pm

By Jacqueline Howard

The office of Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko is reporting that conversations with the Wagner leader have resulted in an agreement to de-escalate the situation in Russia.

A statement, published on the president's Telegram channel, said Mr Lukashenko was "acting in agreement with the Russian President" to broker a deal with Prigozhin.

"Negotiations continued throughout the day. As a result, they came to agreements on the inadmissibility of unleashing a bloody massacre on the territory of Russia," the statement read.

Lukashenko is a close ally of Mr Putin. The Belarusian border with Ukraine was an entry point to Ukraine for Putin's troops when the war began back in February 2022.

We are yet to hear from Prigozhin or Putin on the matter.

Roadblock at a highway offramp in Moscow

Sat. 12:57pm

By Jacqueline Howard

Russian authorities have set up a roadblock at a highway entrance to Moscow, the Associated Press reports.

Outdoor events in Moscow suspended

Sat. 12:41pm

By Jacqueline Howard

The Moscow region has suspended all mass outdoor events until 1 July.

Authorities earlier warned citizens to avoid travelling around the capital.

Recruitments for Wagner taken down

Sat. 12:18pm

By Jacqueline Howard

Roadblocks erected on outskirts of Moscow, mayor warns citizens to stay home

Sat. 11:38am

By Jacqueline Howard

Military roadblocks have popped up on the outskirts of Moscow as the Wagner convoy approaches, Reuters reports.

Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin has advised citizens of the capital to refrain from trips around the city, given a counter-terrorism operation had been declared in the Moscow region.

That declaration gives authorities special powers, such as restricting the movement of people and vehicles and conducting searches. It also allows authorities to evacuate civilians.

In a statement, Mr Sobyanin said Monday would be a non-work day, with some exceptions, in order "to minimise risks".

Russia issues warning to West over Wagner mutiny

Sat. 11:00am

By Jacqueline Howard

Russia's foreign ministry has released a statement warning Western countries against using the Wagner group's mutiny "to achieve their Russophobic goals", Reuters reports.

Over on the ministry's Twitter account, it announced that Putin has been on the phone to the presidents of Belarus, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan.

It said the Russian leader had been informing his counterparts of the "situation in the country".

In the last few minutes, Russian news agency TASS has reported the "top Russian leadership", which includes Putin, remains in the capital despite rumours on social media the top brass had left Moscow.

Sat. 10:41am

By Claudia Williams

More photos have come through of the fuel tank on fire at an oil depot in Voronezh. 

Governor Alexander Gusev said more than 100 firefighters and 30 units of equipment were working at the site.

He said one reservoir was damaged.

Video footage obtained by Reuters showed a ball of fire erupting after a helicopter flew near a residential area.

The Voronezh location was verified by Reuters by buildings and road characteristics that matched satellite imagery.

How concerning are events in Russia for European leaders?

Sat. 10:39am

By Claudia Williams

We have put some more questions to Michelle Rimmer,who is supervising producer for the ABC's London bureau.

What could this mean for Europe more broadly? And how concerned do you believe European leaders will be about this development?

European leaders and their western allies will be watching very closely to see how the situation in Russia develops.

The key language we are hearing from European leaders and the NATO security alliance right now is that they are "monitoring" the fast-moving situation.

They have resisted making any predictions as to how the current turmoil in Russia will play out and what the wider implications for the region may be.

In an intelligence update, the British Defence Ministry said the current situation represents "the most significant challenge to the Russian state in recent times" and that "the loyalty of Russia's security forces" will determine how the crisis unfolds.

A number of countries directly neighbouring Russia, including Estonia and Latvia, have strengthened the security at their borders.

While France and Lithuania say their focus is on Ukraine and seeing an end to Russia's conflict there.

Lithuania's Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis said his country is not distracted by the alleged mutiny in Russia and that "the goal, as ever, is victory and justice for Ukraine".

Wagner 'a force to be reckoned with', says expert

Sat. 10:31am

By Brianna Morris-Grant

The success or failure of Prigozhin may largely depend on how many allies he has and if he can mobilise Russians to join him, says Russian expert and London's King's College academic Anna Matveeva.

Ms. Matveeva told Reuters ifPrigozhin manages to garner the backing of those "within the power and security structures" including police and military intelligence, the situation could descend into "a much wider crisis".

"I think the development which we are to watch is to see whether Wagner and Prigozhin have any allies," she said.

She added Wagner made up "a very good part of the Russian armed forces".

"And certainly, they have been doing a heavy lift at the frontlines in the recent months. So yes, they are a force to be reckoned with."

Russian media says Wagner fighters promised amnesty to disarm

Sat. 10:26am

By Brianna Morris-Grant

Wagner mercenaries have been promised an amnesty if they lay down their weapons but they need to act fast, state-owned Russian news agency TASS has cited a politician as saying.

"Wagner fighters can still lay down their arms and avoid punishment given their achievements during the special military operation [in Ukraine], but they should do it fast," Pavel Krasheninnikov was quoted as saying.

Krashennikov is a former Russian Justice Minister, and is now a Deputy of the State Duma, the lower house of Russia's Federal Assembly.

Wagner moving through area less than 400km from Moscow, says governor

Sat. 10:00am

By Brianna Morris-Grant

The governor of the Lipetsk region, north of Voronezh, has confirmed Wagner is moving through the area, according to BBC reports.

Governor Igor Artamov earlier urged residents to stay indoors and "avoid travelling by any means".

Lipetsk is less than 400km from Moscow.

Here's what it looks like on the ground in Russia

Sat. 9:57am

By Claudia Williams

Entrance to Wagner's headquarters cordoned off

Sat. 9:50am

By Brianna Morris-Grant

The entrance to the PMC Wagner Centre, headquarters of the private military group in St. Petersburg in Russia, has been blocked, according to China Central Television (CCTV). 

Reporter Alexey Ryabkov said things are "relatively stable" in the city: "We can see that the entrance to the building has been blocked, but there is nothing else special there.

"According to the latest reports, Prigozhin, the head of the Wagner Group, has been placed on the wanted list. Though the situation is changing, all is calm in St Petersburg for now."

Where is Vladimir Putin?

Sat. 9:35am

By Claudia Williams

Putin's spokesman Dmitry Peskov said the Russian president was working in the Kremlin on Saturday, the RIA news agency reported.

He has reportedly spoken with muliple leaders including Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan and Uzbekistan's President Shavkat Mirziyoyev.

In an address earlier, Putin vowed to crush an armed mutiny by the Wagner group.

There have also been reports that Putin's presidential plane took off from Moscow to St Petersburg on Saturday.

However, it is not known whether Putin was on board the plane.

How many soldiers are Wagner likely to come up against in Moscow?

Sat. 9:22am

By Claudia Williams

We have put another one of your questions to Europe correspondent Isabella Higgins. 

Wagner is meant to be 25,000 with another 25,000 in Russia. How many soldiers are they likely to come up against stationed in Moscow?

Isabella: It will be a major feat for Wagner if their troops are even able to reach Moscow.

They are outnumbered and geographically disadvantaged — but they are making ground.

The majority of Prighozin's men are still close to the Russia-Ukraine border, and will need to travel hundreds of kilometres and come up against Russia's counter-terrorism activities in several regions.

In theory, Wagner's 25,000 fighters could be quickly outnumbered by the professional military in Moscow.

But Russia is an unpredictable place.

The question is — where will the allegiance of ordinary Russians fall?

Prighozin is said to be a popular figure and he is trying to persuade Russian army personnel to turn against their leadership and fight with him. If more people decide to join his cause, that would further throw the balance of power.

This level of insurgency has not be seen in Russia for many years.

There are whispers of a civil war. For now they are just that, whispers. The next 24 hours will be critical.

Hourly Timeline, Saturday, June 24^th

0100

From ABC News (U.S.) 1 a.m.

Putin is briefed on 'armed rebellion'

Putin was briefed on an "attempted armed rebellion" overnight, according to Russia's state-run media.

A late-night statement from Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov suggested that the Kremlin considered Wagner Group's move into Rostov-on-Don, a key Russian city close to the border with Ukraine, to be a "rebellion." The statement did not mention Prigozhin by name.

0700

From ABC News (U.S.) 7:30 a.m.

Wagner Group claims control over Rostov military facilities, airport

Prigozhin said at about 7:30 a.m. on Saturday that his forces had taken control of the Southern Military District and all military facilities in Rostov-on-Don, a key Russian city near the southern border with Ukraine.

"We will destroy anyone who stands in our way," he said in one of a series of video and audio recordings posted on social media.

He threatened he would go to Moscow, the capital, saying, "We are moving forward and will go until the end."

0900

ABC News (US) 9:30 a.m.

Wagner Group marches toward Moscow

Wagner Group forces were roaming the streets of Rostov-on-Don, gathering outside the Southern Military District headquarters, when Prigozhin made his announcement.

Forces loyal to Prigozhin began traveling north "almost certainly aiming to get to Moscow," the U.K. Ministry of Defense said on Twitter about two hours later.

Prigozhin's rebellion amounted to the "most significant challenge to the Russian state in recent times," the ministry said.

"Over the coming hours, the loyalty of Russia's security forces, and especially the Russian National Guard, will be key to how the crisis plays out," the ministry said.

1000

ABC News (US) 10:00 a.m.

Putin addresses nation on TV, calling the acts 'treason'

Putin in a televised address that aired at about 10 a.m. said actions taken by Prigozhin, who was a longtime ally, amounted to a "stab in the back."

Putin didn't mention Prigozhin by name, but said that "necessary orders have been given" to defend Russia.

"Actions that divide our unity are in essence defeatism before one's own people," he said. "This is a stab in the back of our country and our people."

The powerful head of Chechnya, the semi-independent Russian region, Ramzan Kadyrov, said in a statement that he would support Putin.

He said his forces were already moving to "zones of tension."

1100

ABC News (US) 11:00 a.m.

Ukraine says there's 'so much chaos' in Russia

By Efrem Lukatsky/AP

An advisor to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said there was a "deafening" silence from Russia's elites.

"The next 48 hours will define the new status of Russia," Mykhailo Podolyak said on Twitter at about 11 a.m. Moscow time. "Either a full-fledged Civil War, or a negotiated Transit of Power, or a temporary respite before the next phase of the downfall of the Putin regime."

Zelenskyy said later that Russia appeared to be suffering "full-scale weakness."

"Russia used propaganda to mask its weakness and the stupidity of its government. And now there is so much chaos that no lie can hide it," he said on Twitter.

1200

From CNN

12:36 p.m. ET, June 24, 2023

Governor of southwestern Russian region of Lipetsk says Wagner is moving through territory

From CNN's Darya Tarasova and Tim Lister

Equipment of the Wagner private military company is moving across territory in the southern Russian region of Lipetsk, according to the region's governor, Igor Artamonov.

He said authorities are "taking all necessary measures to ensure the safety of the population," adding that "the situation is under control" and that "there are no failures in the operation of critical infrastructure."

“Since night, we have been at the operational headquarters with the team and representatives of all departments," Artamonov said. "In touch with all heads of districts and services. Everyone works well and smoothly. … Residents are strongly advised not to leave their homes and should not travel by any means of transport. I understand all the inconvenience, but I earnestly ask you to help us and follow these recommendations.”

From CNN

12:42 p.m. ET, June 24, 2023

Cash uncovered in search of Prigozhin's St. Petersburg office, according to Russian news outlet

From CNN's Darya Tarasova and Nathan Hodge

The Russian investigative outlet Fontanka on Saturday reported that a van stacked with boxes with cash was found parked near what is alleged to be an office of Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin at the Hotel Trezzini in St. Petersburg. 

According to Fontanka, the amount of cash uncovered in an apparent search by authorities totaled 4 billion rubles, or approximately $47 million.

1300

From CNN

1:03 p.m. ET, June 24, 2023

Biden reaffirms support for Ukraine during call with France, Germany and the UK

From CNN’s Jasmine Wright

President Joe Biden and US allies on Saturday reaffirmed their “unwavering support for Ukraine” in a call with leaders of France, Germany and the United Kingdom about the unfolding situation in Russia between the military and Wagner private military company.

French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak have all remained closely aligned with Biden over the course of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Biden has frequently spoken and met with the trio over the last year.

From CNN

1:57 p.m. ET, June 24, 2023

Prigozhin says his forces "are turning our columns around," amid claims of deal brokered by Lukashenko

From CNN's Katharina Krebs and Nathan Hodge

Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin published a new audio recording Saturday claiming he was turning his forces around from a march toward Moscow. 

“We turning our columns around and going back in the other direction toward our field camps, in accordance with the plan,” he said in a message on Telegram.

The announcement comes as the Belarusian government claimed President Alexander Lukashenko had reached a deal with Wagner boss to halt the march of his forces on Moscow. 

1400

From CNN

2:01 p.m. ET, June 24, 2023

Medvedev calls developments in Russia "a staged coup d'état," state media reports

From CNN's Mariya Knight

Members of Wagner group stand on a balcony in Rostov-on-Don, Russia, on June 24. Roman Romokhov/AFP/Getty Images

Former Russian President and Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev, who currently serves as the deputy chairman of Russia’s Security Council, accused Wagner of a "staged coup d'état," Russian state media RIA Novosti reported on Saturday. 

“The development of events shows that the actions of the people who organized the military rebellion fully fit into the scheme of a staged coup d'état,” RIA Novosti reported, quoting Medvedev. 

From CNN

2:27 p.m. ET, June 24, 2023

US intel saw signs Prigozhin was planning challenge to Russian military, sources say

From CNN's Alex Marquardt, Jim Sciutto, and Natasha Bertrand

United States intelligence officials believe Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin had been planning a major challenge to Russia’s military leadership for quite some time, three people familiar with the matter tell CNN — but it was unclear what the ultimate aim would be.

Intelligence officials briefed congressional leaders known as the Gang of Eight earlier this week concerning Wagner movements and equipment buildups near Russia, two of the people said.

US and Western intelligence officials saw signs Prigozhin was making preparations for such a move, including by massing weapons and ammunition, one western intelligence official and another person familiar with the intelligence said.

From CNN

2:48 p.m. ET, June 24, 2023

Zelensky claims Putin is “very afraid” following Prigozhin's threats

From CNN's Mariya Knight

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Saturday claimed Russian President Vladimir Putin is “very afraid,” after Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin said he was turning his fighters around from a march toward Moscow. 

“I will say it in Russian: The man from the Kremlin is obviously very afraid and probably hiding somewhere, not showing himself,” Zelensky said.

Zelensky also said Putin's own actions were to blame for the situation facing him.

“He knows what he is afraid of because he himself created this threat. All evil, all losses, all hatred – he himself who spreads it,” Zelensky said. 

1500

From CNN

3:05 p.m. ET, June 24, 2023

Putin and Lukashenko discuss results of negotiations with Wagner, Belarusian presidential press service says

From CNN's Katharina Krebs and Nathan Hodge

Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Belarusian counterpart Alexander Lukashenko had a phone call to discuss "the results of negotiations" with Wagner private military company chief Yevgeny Prigozhin, according to the Belarusian presidential press service.

"The President of Belarus informed the President of Russia in detail about the results of negotiations with the leadership of PMC [private military company] Wagner," the press service said in a statement Saturday. "The President of Russia supported and thanked the Belarusian colleague for the work done."

From CNN

3:23 p.m. ET, June 24, 2023

Ukraine launches simultaneous counteroffensives against several Russian fronts, defense official says

From CNN's Mariya Knight

Taking advantage of the unfolding turmoil in Moscow on Saturday, Ukrainian forces launched simultaneous counteroffensives in multiple directions, according to Ukraine’s Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar. 

"The eastern grouping of troops today launched an offensive in several directions at the same time," Maliar said in a Telegram post, naming several cities and towns, including Bakhmut and Yahidne, among the places where the offensive was launched.

From CNN

3:50 p.m. ET, June 24, 2023

Wagner head says he ordered fighters to turn back to avoid Russian bloodshed

From CNN's Mariya Knight

Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin said in an audio recording Saturday that he had turned his private mercenary forces around from a march toward Moscow to avoid bloodshed. 

“Now is the moment when blood can be shed. Therefore, realizing all the responsibility for the fact that Russian blood will be shed from one of the sides, we turn our columns around and leave in the opposite direction to the field camps according to the plan," Prigozhin said. 

1600

From CNN

4:03 p.m. ET, June 24, 2023

Prigozhin says he turned his forces around from a march toward Moscow.

After previously refusing to surrender, Wagner private military company chief Yevgeny Prigozhin announced his forces were turning around from a march toward Moscow.

The announcement comes as the Belarusian government claimed President Alexander Lukashenko had reached a deal with the Wagner boss to halt the march of his forces on Moscow. Prigozhin said the move was in accordance with an unspecified plan and intended to avoid Russian bloodshed.

From CNN

4:34 p.m. ET, June 24, 2023

Case against Prigozhin will be dropped and he will be sent to Belarus, Kremlin spokesperson says

From CNN's Anna Chernova

Criminal charges against Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin will be dropped and he will be sent to neighboring Belarus, according to Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov.

"You will ask me what will happen to Prigozhin personally?" Peskov said in a conference call with reporters Saturday. "The criminal case will be dropped against him. He himself will go to Belarus."

From CNN

4:29 p.m. ET, June 24, 2023

Kremlin says Wagner fighters will return to base and sign contracts with military

From CNN's Anna Chernova

In a conference call with reporters, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov provided details about what he described as an agreement struck with Yevgeny Prigozhin, the boss of the Wagner private military company, to halt a march of his forces toward Moscow.

"An agreement was reached on the return of PMC Wagner to their locations. Part of those who will wish to do so, will sign contracts with the Ministry of Defense — this concerns those who did not take part in the march, indeed, there were such formations which, from the very beginning, changed their minds and returned. They even requested to be escorted by the traffic police and other assistance in order to return to their permanent locations," he said.

Wagner fighters will not face legal action for taking part in the march, Peskov added, saying that the Kremlin has "always respected their heroic deeds" on the front lines in Ukraine.

1700

ABC News (US) 5:00 p.m.

Wagner forces continue march to Moscow

A column of Wagner forces drove through the Voronezh region, about 300 miles south of Moscow, in the early afternoon, a local governor said.

Russia's armed forces were conducting "operational combat operations" there as part of "counter terrorism operation," the official said.

The column later passed through the Lipetsk region, farther north, Russian state media reported.

From CNN

5:00 p.m. ET, June 24, 2023

Prigozhin was never real threat to Putin, former Russian parliament member says

From CNN’s Sofia Cox

Former Russian member of Parliament Sergey Markov described Wagner private military company boss Yevgeny Prigozhin as "extremely aggressive" but said he was never a threat to Putin.

“They support Prigozhin fighting against Ukrainian army but not against Vladimir Putin,” Markov told CNN's Christiane Amanpour late Saturday local time, citing Putin's popularity now being at “about 80%."

Markov said that it was "really good news" that Prigozhin had ordered Wagner mercenary columns to turn back from an advance toward Moscow, adding that "a lot of Moscow are happy about this.”  

1900

24 1908 WashPost reports Wagner Group fighters are seen near the headquarters of Russia's Southern Military District in Rostov-on-Don on Saturday. (Reuters)

For the moment, things appear to be calming down, as the forces answering to Prigozhin, the Wagner Group chief, have halted their march toward Moscow and turned around. The development came after an agreement between Prigozhin and Putin was brokered by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, according to Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov.

From WashPost

What just happened in Russia? The Wagner crisis, explained.

By Washington Post Staff

June 24, 2023 at 7:08 p.m. EDT

A fast-moving crisis unfolded in Russia on Saturday as Vladimir Putin faced an apparent insurrection from a former ally, Yevgeniy Prigozhin, and the Russian mercenary fighters he leads.

For the moment, things appear to be calming down, as the forces answering to Prigozhin, the Wagner Group chief, have halted their march toward Moscow and turned around. The development came after an agreement between Prigozhin and Putin was brokered by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, according to Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov. Criminal charges previously started against Prigozhin will be dropped, and the Wagner boss will go to Belarus, Peskov said.

Still, the dispute represents a significant challenge to Putin’s leadership, the potential loss of one of Putin’s most successful field commanders, and a possible shift in the course of the war in Ukraine.

Here’s a summary of what we know about the conflict.

WHAT TO KNOW

· Who is Yevgeniy Prigozhin, and why is he so important?

· How did the dispute start?

· Who are the other key players here?

· What exactly did Prigozhin do?

· What deal was brokered?

· How is Ukraine responding?

Who is Yevgeniy Prigozhin, and why is he so important?

The 62-year-old Prigozhin had been a fervent supporter of Russia’s war in Ukraine and is in charge of the Russian private military contractor known as the Wagner Group. Prigozhin had played a central role in the war, first by deploying his mercenaries on the front lines and later by recruiting heavily from prisons to bolster Moscow’s depleted forces.

Wagner led the onslaught in Bakhmut, which culminated in Putin declaring the city under Russian control — his first significant territorial gain since last summer.

Americans may remember Prigozhin as the financier of the Internet Research Agency — the Russian “troll farm” that the Justice Department named in a 2018 indictment over interference in the 2016 U.S. presidential election through weaponized social media.

How did the dispute start?

Internal tensions between Prigozhin and Russian military leaders have been simmering for months over what Prigozhin believed were leadership failures within the military. Prigozhin accused Russian generals of stonewalling his ammunition requests and, as a result, blamed them for his fighters dying “in heaps” in Ukraine.

The dispute reached a boiling point Friday when Prigozhin accused Russian forces of conducting a strike on his fighters at an encampment in Ukraine.

Who are the other key players here?

Two of Putin’s top military leaders — Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Valery Gerasimov, chief of the Russian General Staff — have been on the receiving end of Prigozhin’s vitriol. At one point, he called for Shoigu and Gerasimov to face a firing squad.

Shoigu recently decreed that all “volunteer formations” must sign a contract with the Defense Ministry by July 1, which would place Prigozhin’s mercenaries under Shoigu’s control. Prigozhin said Wagner would not sign.

The appointment of Gerasimov as overall commander of the war in Ukraine also was viewed as a blow to Prigozhin, who lost his main source of manpower when the Defense Ministry barred him from recruiting in prisons.

What exactly did Prigozhin do?

Prigozhin said he had taken control of the main Russian military command base in the southern region of Rostov and told two Russian military commanders that he would blockade Rostov and send his forces to Moscow unless he could confront his enemies: Shoigu and Gerasimov.

Prigozhin called for Russians to join Wagner against Shoigu and Gerasimov. He also accused the pair of lying about the war in Ukraine and undercounting casualties. “This is not a military coup, but a march of justice,” Prigozhin declared.

By Saturday, Prigozhin had agreed to turn his forces around and not march to Moscow.

What deal was brokered?

Many analysts predicted that Prigozhin would be killed or arrested as Wagner forces moved toward Moscow. But the sudden about-face of Prigozhin’s troops appeared to have eased the crisis for now.

The agreement for Prigozhin’s forces to turn around was brokered by the Belarusian president, who spoke with Putin before negotiating with Prigozhin, according to the Belarusian state-owned news agency Belta and the Kremlin. With security guarantees for Wagner on the table, Prigozhin reportedly agreed to stop his dash to Moscow.

Russian media outlets reported Wagner forces leaving the city of Rostov-on-Don after the Kremlin said that charges will be dropped against the Wagner chief and that he will be sent to Belarus.

Prigozhin has often been seen as the most credible of Russia’s field commanders. His disappearance from the battlefield will be watched closely.

How is Ukraine responding?

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said in his evening address Saturday that the events inside Russia show “that the bosses of Russia do not control anything.”

“Nothing at all. Complete chaos,” Zelensky said. “And it is happening on Russian territory, which is fully loaded with weapons.”

The Ukrainian military continued pressing its offensive Saturday, though there were no immediate signs that the rebellion next door had eased the Ukrainian path to victory.

Valeriy Shershen, an armed forces spokesman in eastern Ukraine, said Saturday that Kyiv’s troops had liberated “several positions” in the Donetsk region in the country’s east, recapturing territory that had been under the control of Russian forces and Moscow-backed separatists since hostilities broke out in eastern Ukraine in 2014. Shershen said that the territory was retaken a week ago but that the news was withheld for “certain tactical considerations.”

How are Western officials responding?

The United States and many NATO allies have said they have been closely monitoring the situation in Russia. The U.S. National Security Council said President Biden was briefed Friday night, and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin spoke Saturday with allies from Canada, France, Germany, Poland and Britain.

The Pentagon’s top military officer, Gen. Mark A. Milley, canceled a trip to the Middle East in light of the crisis, an official said Saturday. Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, was to leave Washington on Saturday to visit Israel and Jordan, said his spokesman, Col. David Butler. Milley instead spoke Saturday with his Ukrainian counterpart, Gen. Valery Zaluzhny, Butler said in a separate statement.

What do I need to know about the Wagner Group?

The Wagner Group is not a single, traditional company, but a shadowy network of organizations providing fighters for hire — with the approval of the Kremlin.

According to research by the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, the group has probably operated in as many as 30 countries and has two training camps in Russia.

It is ostensibly private, but according to CSIS, “its management and operations are deeply intertwined with the Russian military and intelligence community” under Putin.

Prigozhin made billions through government catering contracts. While the Wagner Group appears to be partly bankrolled by Prigozhin’s ties to the Kremlin, it has also used violence and extortion in an effort to corner the extremely lucrative diamond industry in the Central African Republic.

Russian mercenaries accused of using violence to corner diamond trade

Who are the mercenaries who fight as part of the Wagner Group?

The United States estimated earlier this year that about 50,000 of Prigozhin’s Wagner fighters had deployed to Ukraine, the majority of them recruited from inside Russian prisons.

The United States has imposed rounds of sanctions on the group and designated it a “significant transnational criminal organization.”

The mercenary outfit has been accused of “mass executions, rape, child abductions, and physical abuse in the Central African Republic (CAR) and Mali,” Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen said in a statement earlier this year.

2000

ABC News (US) 8:00 p.m.

Prigozhin orders halt on march to Moscow

Prigozhin said he ordered his mercenaries to halt their march on Moscow and return to their field camps, saying he wanted to avoid shedding Russian blood.

The reasons the rebellion ended was a mystery, given that Prigozhin appeared to have been in a dominant position, a senior U.S. official told ABC News.

As part of a deal struck with Putin, Prigozhin would relocate to Belarus and would not be prosecuted, the Kremlin said.

From CNN

19 hr 11 min ago

"Putin doesn't forgive traitors," says former CNN Moscow bureau chief

Former CNN Moscow bureau chief Jill Dougherty speaks to CNN's Anderson Cooper. CNN

Russian President Vladimir Putin "doesn't forgive traitors," said former CNN Moscow bureau chief, Jill Dougherty.

Even though Putin has told Prigozhin to go to Belarus, according to the Kremlin, the Wagner chief remains a "traitor," Dougherty told CNN's Anderson Cooper Saturday.

"I think Putin will never ever forgive that," she added. "I think it is a real dilemma because as long as Prigozhin is acting the way he does and has some type of support, he is a threat. Regardless of where he is."

Dougherty said the turmoil and chaos that transpired on the streets of Russia did not make Putin look like the strongman leader he has positioned himself to be.

"Putin himself looks really weak. If I were Putin, I would be worried about those people on the streets of Rostov cheering the Wagner people as they leave," she said.

"Why are average Russians on the street cheering people trying to carry our a coup? That means that maybe they support them but they might like them. Whatever it is, it is really bad news for Putin."

From CNN

19 hr 12 min ago

US has not seen a change in Russia's nuclear posture during insurrection, two officials say

From CNN's Kylie Atwood

The United States has not seen a change to Russia's nuclear posture since Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin began his insurrection challenging the Kremlin's leadership, two US officials told CNN. 

"We have not seen any changes in the disposition of Russian nuclear forces," a State Department spokesperson said, adding that the US has "no reason to adjust our conventional or nuclear force posture. We have long-standing, established communication channels with Russia on nuclear issues."

President Putin has repeatedly engaged in nuclear saber-rattling over the course of the Ukraine war. Putin said earlier this month that the first tactical nuclear weapons to be stored in Belarus had arrived. US President Joe Biden called the move "absolutely irresponsible."

The US has continued to monitor Russia's nuclear posture throughout the Ukraine War despite Russia this year suspending participation in the single lasting nuclear arms control treaty between the US and Russia. This has meant that the two nations are no longer sharing certain notifications with one another which were required under the treaty, including updates on the status or location of treaty-accountable items such as missiles and launchers. 

"As a nuclear power, Russia has a special responsibility to maintain command, control, and custody of its nuclear forces and to ensure that no actions are taken that imperil strategic stability," the State Department spokesperson said. 

And as the US continues to monitor the situation in Russia the US diplomatic presence in the country has remain unchanged. 

“Our embassy in Moscow remains open, we are in regular communication with it, and its operating posture remains the same at this time,” the spokesperson said. 

From CNN

19 hr 12 min ago

"Bloodshed could have happened,” says Chechen leader Kadyrov

From CNN's Mariya Knight

Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov, an ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin, condemned the actions of Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin in a Telegram post on Saturday, saying, “bloodshed could have happened." 

“Now everything ended peacefully, without bloodshed, but it could have happened," Kadyrov said.

Kadyrov added that "extreme measures" would have been needed to stop any Wagner rebellion requiring "harsh suppression and destruction of anyone who encroaches on the integrity of the Russian Federation.”

Condemning Prigozhin for his actions over the last 24 hours, Kadyrov said: “The arrogance of one person could lead to such dangerous consequences and draw a large number of people into the conflict,” he added. 

Kadyrov blamed Prigozhin for “mixing business ambitions with matters of national importance.” 

Some context: Chechen State media Grozny reported earlier Saturday that “3,000 fighters of elite units were sent from Chechnya, and they have been holding their positions since early morning ready to fulfill any order of Russian President Vladimir Putin.” 

From CNN

19 hr 13 min ago.2052

What's next for Wagner fighters?

A retired major in the the US Army said there are many questions to be asked about the future facing Wagner fighters after their short-lived uprising.

"They're an independent fighting company. They were given better rations. They dressed differently," said Major Mike Lyons (Ret.) US Army. 

"I don't think they'll be easily assimilated into the Russian military and sent back to the front there. So I think there is going to be an issue."

He added: "Maybe some will splinter off. Maybe some will decide to defect and provide information to Ukraine. Those people are loyal to the man, Prigozhin, not to the country, not to the mission. I think we've got a lot more questions that are not answered right now."

Earlier Saturday, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said Wagner fighters will not face legal action for taking part in the march toward Moscow, saying that the Kremlin has "always respected their heroic deeds" on the front lines in Ukraine. 

2100

20h GUK21.19 EDT

Opening summary

Events in Russia have been unfolding at breakneck pace over the past 24 hours after Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin launched a march on Moscow aiming to oust the country’s military leadership, only to call it off on the same day and agree to leave the country for Belarus.

Here’s a roundup of the key developments:

· In an abrupt about-face, Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin said he had called off his troops’ march on Moscow and ordered them to move out of Rostov. Under a deal brokered by Belarus, Prigozhin agreed to leave Russia and move to Belarus. He will not face charges and Wagner troops who took part in the rebellion will not face any action in recognition of their previous service to Russia.

· In a statement, Prigozhin said that he wanted to avoid the spilling of “Russian blood”. “Now the moment has come when blood can be shed,” he said. “Therefore, realising all the responsibility for the fact that Russian blood will be shed from one side, we will turn our convoys around and go in the opposite direction to our field camps.”

· The Wagner leader was later pictured leaving the headquarters of the southern military district (SMD) in Rostov, which his forces had occupied on Saturday. Wagner forces also shot down three military helicopters and had entered the Lipetsk region, about 360km (225 miles) south of Moscow, before they were called back.

· Belarus president Alexander Lukashenko’s press office was the first to announce that Prigozhin would be backing down, saying that Lukashenko had negotiated a de-escalation with the Wagner head after talking to Russian president Vladimir Putin. Lukashenko said that Putin has since thanked him for his negotiation efforts.

· Putin has not publicly commented on Lukashenko’s deal with Prigozhin. He appeared on television earlier on Saturday in an emergency broadcast, issuing a nationwide call for unity in the face of a mutinous strike that he compared to the revolution of 1917. “Any internal mutiny is a deadly threat to our state, to us as a nation,” he said.

· Putin reportedly took a plane out of Moscow heading north-west on Saturday afternoon. It is unclear where he went or his current whereabouts.

· Before the Belarus deal was announced, Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy said that: “Everyone who chooses the path of evil destroys himself. Whoever throws hundreds of thousands into the war, eventually must barricade himself in the Moscow region from those whom he himself armed.”

· Ukraine’s military said on Saturday its forces made advances near Bakhmut, on the eastern front, and further south. Deputy defence minister Hanna Maliar said an offensive was launched near a group of villages ringing Bakhmut, which was taken by Wagner forces in May after months of fighting. Oleksandr Tarnavskiy, commander of the southern front, said Ukrainian forces had liberated an area near Krasnohorivka, west of the Russian-held regional centre of Donetsk.

20h GUK21.31 EDT

Wagner boss Prigozhin agrees to call off march on Moscow and leave the country

Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin has agreed to leave Russia and ordered his fighters to withdraw from Rostov and halt their march on Moscow, under the terms of a deal negotiated by Belarus.

At the end of an extraordinary day, during which a visibly angry Vladimir Putin had made an emergency television broadcast railing against the “deadly threat to our state”, Progozhin said that he wanted to avoid shedding Russian blood and would order his troops back to their bases instead.

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said the criminal case that had been opened against Prigozhin for armed mutiny would be dropped, and the Wagner fighters who had taken part in his “march for justice” would not face any action in recognition of their previous service to Russia.

Videos later showed Prigozhin, who said his men had reached within 125 miles (200 km) of the capital, and his fighters leaving Rostov.

Here’s our full report by Andrew Roth and Pjotr Sauer:

Wagner rebel chief halts tank advance on Moscow ‘to stop bloodshed’

19h GUK21.46 EDT

US suspected Prigozhin plan to launch action against military leadership, US media reports

US spy agencies picked up information suggesting Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin was planning to take action against Russia’s military leadership as early as mid-June, US media has reported.

Over the past two weeks there was “high concern” about what may happen regarding president Vladimir Putin’ grip on power and the country’s nuclear arsenal, the Washington Post reported, citing anonymous US officials.

The exact timing and nature of Prigozhin’s plans were not clear until Friday, when the Wagner leader first began posting about an alleged Russian rocket attack on his forces, but “there were enough signals to be able to tell the leadership … that something was up,” the Post quoted one official as saying.

According to the New York Times, senior American national security officials had indications as early as Wednesday that Prigozhin was preparing to take action and intelligence officials conducted briefings with the Biden administration and defence officials on the same day.

A narrow group of congressional leaders were informed on Thursday, when additional confirmation of the plot came in, the Times reported.

2200

19h GUK22.12 EDT

Russian president Vladimir Putin is “obviously very afraid” and “probably hiding”, Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy has said in his latest evening address.

“The man from the Kremlin is obviously very afraid and probably hiding somewhere, not showing himself. I am sure that he is no longer in Moscow … He knows what he is afraid of because he himself created this threat,” Zelenskiy said.

Putin has not commented on the Belarus-brokered deal that negotiated Prigozhin’s exit from Russia and the withdrawal of Wagner troops from Rostov. He is believed to have left Moscow on a plane on Saturday afternoon and his whereabouts are unclear.

His apparent departure from the capital contrasts notably with that of Zelenskiy, who remained in Kyiv when Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine last year.

“Today the world saw that the bosses of Russia do not control anything. Nothing at all. Complete chaos. Complete absence of any predictability. And it is happening on Russian territory, which is fully loaded with weapons,” said Zelenskiy.

“In one day, they lost several of their million-plus cities and showed all Russian bandits, mercenaries, oligarchs and anyone else how easy it is to capture Russian cities and, probably, arsenals with weapons.”

From CNN

18 hr 50 min ago

Kazakh president to host emergency Security Council meeting

Kazakhstan President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev will hold an emergency meeting of his Security Council on Sunday, his office has said, hours after he called for "law and order" in Russia.

"The head of the government will hear reports from the prime minister (and) heads of the security forces about taking course measures connected to the situation in Russia," Tokayev's office wrote on Twitter, adding an "action plan is expected to be adopted to neutralize possible negative consequences linked to the situation in the neighboring friendly country impacting the security of citizens of Kazakhstan and the economy of our country."

The announcement comes after Russian President Vladimir Putin called Tokayev to brief him on the situation in Russia. 

Tokayev noted the events are an "internal affair" of Russia and called for the resumption of law and order.  

From CNN

18 hr 38 min ago From CNN 2228

Putin "has suffered a mortal blow," says retired US Army general

Russian President Vladimir Putin has suffered "a mortal blow," according to a retired US general, despite the apparent deal that will see Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin leave for Belarus.

"There are two existential fights going on in this Russia-Ukraine war," said retired US Army Brig. Gen. Peter Zwack.

"One is the viability of the survival, the existence, of a free-minded Ukrainian state. The other is inside the Kremlin and the viability of the Putin regime."

What (Prigozhin) has done is divided the Russians, got them squabbling publicly... This I believe is a mortal blow to Putin and his regime."

He called the events that unfolded on the streets of Russia over the past 36 hours "extraordinary," adding there is a "narrative getting out to the mainstream population that this invasion of Ukraine was wrong."

Zwack said: "And I think in this aspect, the information is that Russia's Putin's bodyguard of lies is collapsing as we watch."

19h GUK22.27 EDT

A bit more from the US reports claiming that US spy agencies suspected Prigozhin was planning something earlier this month.

A key trigger was an order from 10 June, in which the Russian Ministry of Defence ordered all volunteer units to sign contracts with the government, the Washington Post reports. This would have meant Prigozhin’s losing control of Wagner.

Ukraine was also monitoring Prigozhin, believing that he might mobilise his troops against Moscow, a Ukrainian official said, according to the paper.

The New York Times says the prior knowledge of impending events was similar to the way in which US intelligence got wind of Russian plans to invade Ukraine at the end of 2021.

However, while the US tried to warn Ukraine publicly then and deter Putin from carrying out his plans intelligence agencies in this case said nothing.

“US officials felt that if they said anything, Mr Putin could accuse them of orchestrating a coup. And they clearly had little interest in helping Mr. Putin avoid a major, embarrassing fracturing of his support,” the Times reported.

18h GUK22.41 EDT

Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov has condemned Prigozhin in a post on the Telegram messaging app, saying bloodshed had been averted this time but that it “could happen”.

“I thought some people could be trusted,” he wrote. “That they sincerely love their Motherland as real patriots to the marrow of their bones. But it turned out that for the sake of personal ambitions, benefits and because of arrogance, people cannot give a damn about affection and love for the Fatherland.”

He called on Wagner fighters “to continue to be sober in their decisions”, warning “such actions can lead to disastrous results”.

“Now everything ended peacefully, without bloodshed, but it could happen,” he continued, saying that a future rebellion would result in “the harsh suppression and destruction of anyone who encroaches on the integrity of the Russian Federation”.

On Saturday Kadyrov, an ally of Putin, called Prigozhin a traitor and said he was sending Chechen troops to squash the mutiny.

18h GUK22.54 EDT

Rob Lee, a military expert at the US-based Foreign Policy Research Institute, has posted some analysis of the last 24 hours, which have left many of us scratching our heads – indeed he starts by saying he has “more questions than answers”.

Regarding the Russian president, he says its “too soon to say Putin will fall anytime soon” but notes that “Putin and the MoD’s leadership look weak”.

It’s “not clear this will affect Ukraine’s offensive” but “the previous Kremlin-Wagner relationship is over” and “Wagner-Russian military cooperation will likely suffer”.

He also says Prigozhin “likely alienated many pro-war figures for doing this while Russian soldiers are defending against an offensive and killing Russian airmen” and notes that there is “a difference between soldiers and police not shooting at Wagner and joining them”.

Given Wagner’s presence overseas, “the greatest effects from this event may be felt in MENA/Africa”, says Lee.

18 hr 50 min ago From CNN 22.56

Kazakh president to host emergency Security Council meeting

Kazakhstan President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev will hold an emergency meeting of his Security Council on Sunday, his office has said, hours after he called for "law and order" in Russia.

"The head of the government will hear reports from the prime minister (and) heads of the security forces about taking course measures connected to the situation in Russia," Tokayev's office wrote on Twitter, adding an "action plan is expected to be adopted to neutralize possible negative consequences linked to the situation in the neighboring friendly country impacting the security of citizens of Kazakhstan and the economy of our country."

The announcement comes after Russian President Vladimir Putin called Tokayev to brief him on the situation in Russia. 

Tokayev noted the events are an "internal affair" of Russia and called for the resumption of law and order.  

2300

18h GUK23.06 EDT

The Guardian’s own correspondents, Andrew Roth, who reported on the reaction in Rostov to the shortlived mutiny, and Pjotr Sauer, who covered Prigozhin’s march into Russia from Ukraine as it happened, had these observations to make:

18h GUK23.37 EDT

The extraordinary uprising by the Wagner mercenary force so crucial to Vladimir Putin’s war machine in Ukraine has dominated headlines around the world and raised question marks about the Russian president’s grip on power.

The Observer says “Rebel chief halts tank advance on Moscow ‘to stop bloodshed’” next to an image of a Wagner tank in Rostov-on-Don. Analysis by Luke Harding also features on the front, in which he says the mutiny led by Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin leaves Putin at his weakest in decades.

Bild in Germany has the headline: “Uprising against Putin” next to images of Wagner fighters. Its subhead reads: “The putsch attempt in Russia and what that means for us.” Die Welt and Der Spiegel both speak of a “power struggle” in Russia on their front pages.

The New York Times carried analysis on what the short-lived mutiny said about Putin’s hold on power. Correspondent Peter Baker noted the dangers and the opportunity the volatility presented to the US; the danger being an under-threat president in charge of nuclear missiles, and the opportunity a weakening of Russia’s war effort, to Ukraine’s gain.

Read our full wrap of what the papers say:

‘Putin humiliated’: what the papers said about the Wagner rebellion in Russia

17h GUK23.57 EDT

Kremlin struggled to put together coherent response to Wagner mutiny, US thinktank says

The Kremlin struggled to put together a coherent response to the Wagner mutiny “highlighting internal security weaknesses likely due to surprise and the impact of heavy losses in Ukraine,” the Institute for the Study of War has said in its latest analysis of the conflict.

Russian authorities mobilised Rosgvardia, the Russian National Police, the US thinktank wrote, but “ISW has not observed any reports or footage suggesting that Rosgvardia units engaged with Wagner at any point”.

Rosgvardia’s founding mission is to protect internal threats to the security of the Russian government such as an advance on Moscow, and it is notable that Rosgvardia failed to engage even as Wagner captured critical military assets in Rostov-on-Don and destroyed Russian military aircraft

It also noted that though Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov said he had mobilised his forces – which supposedly specialise in domestic security – in response to the Wagner advance, they also “unsurprisingly” never engaged with Wagner. This is “in line with Kadyrov’s paramount objective of maintaining his own internal security force,” the ISW said.

It concluded:

The Kremlin’s dedicated internal security organs failed to respond to an independent military force capturing the headquarters of the SMD [southern military district] and advancing on Moscow – and Wagner likely could have reached the outskirts of Moscow if Prigozhin chose to order them to do so.

RETREAT of the MERCENARIES:

Sunday, June 25th

UNTIMED

From the New York Times

Here’s the latest on the situation in Russia.

Russian state media blames and belittles Prigozhin, but some criticism of Putin and others surfaces.

Thousands of Wagner troops are deployed across Africa. Now what?

Ukraine could capitalize on the chaos wrought by the Wagner rebellion.

The short-lived rebellion in Russia shows cracks in Putin’s power, Blinken says.

More links...

The Future of Ukraine: The European Union and NATO have promised a path to membership for the country. But real partnership will hold risks and benefits.

· Photos: Photographers with The New York Times and other news organizations have been chronicling the war, capturing a slice of how soldiers and civilians have experienced it. Our photographers say some images will never leave them.

· Western Companies: Hundreds of Western businesses are still in Russia. Some say Moscow has tied their hands, while others have chosen to stay put.

· Defying Isolation: After the invasion of Ukraine, the West tried to cut Russia off from the rest of the world. But wealthy Russians continue to rely on a network of middlemen to circumvent the restrictions.

· A Wartime Partnership: The alliance between President Biden and President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine has become critical to the world order.

· Zelensky’s Rise: The Ukrainian president, once brushed off as a political lightweight, has become a household name, representing his country’s tenacity.

More links from the New York Times

Here is the latest on the standoff between Prigozhin and the Russian military.

The brief uprising in Russia was followed closely in Iran.

U.S. officials were briefed that Prigozhin was preparing to take military action against Russia.

Wagner fighters stream out of Rostov, the southern Russian military hub they seized overnight.

The Wagner uprising unraveled less than 24 hours after it began.

0000

From CNN

Updated 12:06 AM ET, From CNN Sun June 25, 2023

What we covered

· Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin will go to Belarus and criminal charges against him will be dropped in a deal to end his insurrection, Moscow said. The announcement caps a frenetic 36 hours in Russia but much remains uncertain.

· Prigozhin said he was turning his forces around from a march toward Moscow shortly after the Belarusian government said it had reached a deal with him to halt the advance.

· Only hours earlier, Russian President Vladimir Putin had vowed to punish those behind the “armed uprising” after Wagner claimed control of military facilities in two Russian cities. Prigozhin had accused Russia's military leadership of striking a Wagner camp on Friday.

· In Ukraine, President Volodymyr Zelensky claimed Putin is “very afraid” following Wagner's actions, while a defense official said Ukrainian forces launched simultaneous counteroffensives in multiple directions.

Our coverage of the Wagner insurrection in Russia has moved here.

17h GUK00.23 EDT

More from the ISW analysis, which says that the optics of Belarusian president Alexander Lukashenko playing a direct role in the halting of a military advance on Moscow are “humiliating to [Russian president Vladimir] Putin and may have secured Lukashenko other benefits”.

Lukashenko’s reported access to previously established channels and successful negotiation with [Wagner leader Yevgeny] Prigozhin likely indicates Lukashenko has unspecified influence over Prigozhin he could leverage to deescalate the situation ...

Lukashenko will likely seek to use the de-escalation of the armed rebellion to advance his goals, such as delaying the formalization of the Russia-Belarus Union State or preventing Putin from using Belarusian forces in Ukraine.

16h GUK00.41 EDT

The ISW further speculates that Prigozhin saw the Ministry of Defence’s 1 July deadline for all irregular forces, including his Wagner group, to sign contracts with the government as an “existential threat to his political (and possibly personal) survival”.

He therefore “gambled that his only avenue to retain Wagner Group as an independent force was to march against the Russian MoD, likely intending to secure defections in the Russian military but overestimating his own prospects”.

Due to the speed and coordination of Wagner movements, Prigozhin “almost certainly planned this effort in advance,” the thinktank writes – that aligns with US media reports that US intelligence suspected up to two weeks GUK that he was planning to take action against Moscow.

The thinktank also suggests that the rebellion may have eroded support for Prigozhin among the ultranationalist community and even within Wagner itself, as it forced Wagner-affiliated regional authorities and recruitment organizations to denounce the effort.

Prigozhin also likely angered many Wagner personnel and Wagner-sympathetic ultranationalists by not following through with his attempted march on Moscow.

The agreement brokered by Belarus may also upset Wagner personnel, as it marks the end of efforts to keep Wagner from being subordinated to the MoD.

It is unclear at this time if Prigozhin secured buy-in from Wagner commanders or rank-and-file personnel before making the alleged agreement, and many Wagner personnel will likely be displeased with the potential of signing contracts with the MoD, demobilizing, or deploying away from Ukraine.

16h GUK00.56 EDT

A tweet verified by the BBC shows again how civilians in Rostov celebrated the Wagner troops as they were withdrawing. Not necessarily a sign that they don’t support president Vladimir Putin, but nonetheless not encouraging for him.

You can also hear a Wagner fighter firing his gun into the air.

0100

16h GUK01.03 EDT

Traffic restrictions remain in place on the M-4 “Don” major expressway in the Moscow and Tula regions on Sunday, the Federal Road Agency said on the Telegram messaging app according to Reuters.

The M4 links Moscow with the south, and authorities closed it on Saturday as Wagner fighters made their way up from Rostov.

“According to earlier decisions made in the regions, the restriction of traffic along the M-4 ‘Don’ (highway) in the Tula and Moscow regions remains in place,” the agency said.

16h GUK01.37 EDT

More images have also come through on the wires, showing smiling and cheering civilians with Wagner fighters. (See here to access)

Updated at 02.54 EDT

15h GUK01.54 EDT

In an analysis for the Atlantic published just before Prigozhin called off his mutiny, prominent US-Polish historian Anne Applebaum asks whether Putin could be “facing his Czar Nicholas II moment?”

“In a slow, unfocused sort of way, Russia is sliding into what can only be described as a civil war,” she writes.

If you are surprised, maybe you shouldn’t be. For months – years, really –Putin has blamed all of his country’s troubles on outsiders: America, Europe, Nato … Now he is facing a movement that lives according to the true values of the modern Russian military, and indeed of modern Russia.

Prigozhin is cynical, brutal, and violent. He and his men are motivated by money and self-interest. They are angry at the corruption of the top brass, the bad equipment provided to them, the incredible number of lives wasted. They aren’t Christian, and they don’t care about Peter the Great.

She notes that in 1917, it was Russian soldiers who came home angry from World War I to launch the Russian revolution.

Putin alluded to that moment in his brief television appearance this morning … What he did not mention was that up until the moment he left power, Czar Nicholas II was having tea with his wife, writing banal notes in his diary, and imagining that the ordinary Russian peasants loved him and would always take his side.

He was wrong.

0200

15h GUK02.14 EDT

Russia’s Federal Road Agency urged residents of the Moscow region on Sunday to refrain from travelling along the M-4 “Don” major expressway until 10 am (0700 GMT), Reuters reports.

The agency had said earlier in the day on the Telegram messaging app, in a post now deleted, that traffic restrictions on the highway in the Moscow and Tula regions remained.

The M4 links Moscow with the south, and authorities closed it on Saturday as Wagner fighters made their way up from Rostov.

15h GUK02.32 EDT

The situation around the headquarters of Russia’s Southern Military District in Rostov-on-Don was calm and street traffic resumed, RIA state news agency said on Sunday after Yevgeny Prigozhin and his mercenaries left the city.

In a video on the agency’s Telegram messaging app, which it said was taken in the city of Rostov-on-Don, a man was sweeping a street and cars were moving along another street, Reuters reported.

A bit more from the ISW analysis, which says that though it does not predict the imminent collapse of the Russia government, the weekend’s events “will likely substantially damage Putin’s government and the Russian war effort in Ukraine”.

The Kremlin now faces a deeply unstable equilibrium. The Lukashenko-negotiated deal is a short-term fix, not a long-term solution, and Prigozhin’s rebellion exposed severe weaknesses in the Kremlin and Russian MoD…

The imagery of Putin appearing on national television to call for the end of an armed rebellion and warning of a repeat of a repeat of the 1917 revolution – and then requiring mediation from a foreign leader to resolve the rebellion – will have a lasting impact.

The rebellion exposed the weakness of the Russian security forces and demonstrated Putin’s inability to use his forces in a timely manner to repel an internal threat and further eroded his monopoly on force.

Prigozhin’s rapid drive towards Moscow ridiculed much of the Russian regular forces – and highlighted to any and all security figures, state owned enterprises, and other key figures in the Russian government that private military forces separate from the central state can achieve impressive results.

14h GUK02.43 EDT

Ukrainian forces have reset and have been undertaking major offensive operations on three main axes in southern and eastern Ukraine over the past few days, the UK’s Ministry of Defence has said in its latest intelligence update.

Ukrainian forces are using the experiences from the first two weeks of the counter-offensive to refine tactics for assaulting the deep, well prepared Russian defences. Ukrainian units are making gradual but steady tactical progress in key areas.

It notes that Russian forces have been making their own “significant effort” to launch an attack in the Serebryanka Forest near Kremina in the eastern region of Luhansk.

This probably reflects continued Russian senior leadership orders to go on the offensive whenever possible. Russia has made some small gains, but Ukrainian forces have prevented a breakthrough.

14h GUK02.52 EDT

Summary

If you’re just joining us, here’s a roundup of all the latest developments:

· In an abrupt about-face, Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin said he had called off his troops’ march on Moscow and ordered them to move out of Rostov. Under a deal brokered by Belarus, Prigozhin agreed to leave Russia and move to Belarus. He will not face charges and Wagner troops who took part in the rebellion will not face any action in recognition of their previous service to Russia.

· In a statement, Prigozhin said that he wanted to avoid the spilling of “Russian blood”. “Now the moment has come when blood can be shed,” he said. “Therefore, realising all the responsibility for the fact that Russian blood will be shed from one side, we will turn our convoys around and go in the opposite direction to our field camps.”

· The Wagner leader was later pictured leaving the headquarters of the southern military district (SMD) in Rostov, which his forces had occupied on Saturday. Wagner forces also shot down three military helicopters and had entered the Lipetsk region, about 360km (225 miles) south of Moscow, before they were called back.

· Belarus president Alexander Lukashenko’s press office was the first to announce that Prigozhin would be backing down, saying that Lukashenko had negotiated a de-escalation with the Wagner head after talking to Russian president Vladimir Putin. Lukashenko said that Putin has since thanked him for his negotiation efforts.

· Putin has not publicly commented on Lukashenko’s deal with Prigozhin. He appeared on television earlier on Saturday in an emergency broadcast, issuing a nationwide call for unity in the face of a mutinous strike that he compared to the revolution of 1917. “Any internal mutiny is a deadly threat to our state, to us as a nation,” he said.

· Putin reportedly took a plane out of Moscow heading north-west on Saturday afternoon. It is unclear where he went or his current whereabouts.

· Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy said that Putin was “obviously very afraid” and “probably hiding”. In his latest evening address, Zelenskiy said: “Today the world saw that the bosses of Russia do not control anything. Nothing at all. Complete chaos. Complete absence of any predictability. And it is happening on Russian territory, which is fully loaded with weapons.”

· US spy agencies picked up information suggesting the Wagner leader was planning to take action against Russia’s military leadership as early as mid-June, US media has reported. The Washington Post and New York Times that said US intelligence officials had conducted briefings at the White House, the PentGUKn and on Capitol Hill about the potential for unrest in nuclear-armed Russia a full day before it unfolded.

· Analysts have been confounded by events, with most saying it is too early to say whether Putin will fall but agreeing that he has been substantially damaged by the mutiny. The Institute for the Study of War noted that the Kremlin struggled to put together a coherent response to the mutiny and that “Wagner likely could have reached the outskirts of Moscow if Prigozhin chose to order them to do so.”

· Ukraine’s military said on Saturday its forces made advances near Bakhmut, on the eastern front, and further south. Deputy defence minister Hanna Maliar said an offensive was launched near a group of villages ringing Bakhmut, which was taken by Wagner forces in May after months of fighting. Oleksandr Tarnavskiy, commander of the southern front, said Ukrainian forces had liberated an area near Krasnohorivka, west of the Russian-held regional centre of Donetsk.

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14h GUK03.07 EDT

Here’s our full report on the latest developments

The chief of the rebel Wagner mercenary force Yevgeny Prigozhin will leave Russia and won’t face charges after calling off his troops’ advance towards Moscow, as reports emerged that US spy agencies had picked up signs days GUK that he was preparing to rise up against Russia’s defence establishment.

Late on Saturday, video emerged of Prigozhin leaving the headquarters of the southern military district in the Russian city of Rostov-on-Don after agreeing to move to Belarus. His exact whereabouts on Sunday morning were not clear. Images also showed Wagner fighters withdrawing from the city.

The developments came amid reports in the Washington Post and New York Times that said US intelligence officials had conducted briefings at the White House, the PentGUKn and on Capitol Hill about the potential for unrest in nuclear-armed Russia a full day before it unfolded.

Wagner boss to leave Russia as reports say US spy agencies picked up signs of planned uprising days GUK

14h GUK03.21 EDT

An “anti-terrorist operation regime” was still in force in Moscow on Sunday, a day after mutinous Wagner mercenaries threatened to storm the Russian capital, in a dramatic security crisis for President Vladimir Putin.

The anti-terrorist regime was introduced in Moscow on Saturday, as the Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin’s forces appeared to advance on the capital, with authorities asking residents to limit travel.

Moscow authorities also said that a day off work introduced to curb movement around the city on Monday would remain in place for security reasons.

13h GUK03.49 EDT

The Ukrainian military claims to have “liquidated” 720 Russian military people in the last 24 hours, in unverified figures released today.

As of today, the Russians have suffered a total of 224,630 combat losses since the start of the war on 24 February, according to the Ukrainian ministry of defence. Yesterday, the Ukrainians claimed to have caused 223,910 Russian losses.

The Ukrainians also said in the last day they destroyed six tanks, 19 artillery systems, two anti-aircraft war systems, 41 cruise missiles, among other military equipment.

Both Ukraine and Russia have consistently claimed the other side has sustained devastatingly high casualties, but it has not been possible to verify battlefield claims from either side.

Western diplomats told Reuters on 5 June that Russia’s deaths and casualties totalled around 200,000.

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13h GUK04.06 EDT

Analysts have been trying to explain the tumultuous events of the last 24 hours, which saw the greatest challenge to Russian President Vladimir Putin in his more than two decades in power.

Many questions remained unanswered, including whether chief mutineer Yevgeny Prigozhin would be joined in exile by any of Wagner’s troops and what role, if any, he might have there.

But the risk for Putin is whether he will be seen as weak, analysts said.

“Putin has been diminished for all time by this affair,” former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine John Herbst said on CNN.

13h GUK04.32 EDT

China Foreign Minister Qin Gang and Russia Deputy Foreign Minister Andrei Rudenko have met in Beijing, in the first public meeting of diplomats from the two countries since mutinous mercenaries threatened to storm the Russian capital.

The two exchanged views on “international and regional issues of common concern”, the Chinese foreign ministry said on Sunday.

They also exchanged views on China-Russia relations, the ministry said on its website.

Chinese leaders have not responded publicly to news of the armed rebellion and the Wall Street Journal reports the events received limited coverage in Chinese media, in stark contrast to the in-depth coverage of the mutiny in Western meedia.

13h GUK04.37 EDT

All transport restrictions lifted in region previously controlled by Wagner mutineers

All transport restrictions in Russia’s Rostov region have been lifted, including those on highways, Russian news agencies reported on Sunday, citing local officials.

“Bus and railway stations are working in normal mode. Tickets are on sale, all destinations are on schedule,” Sergey Tyurin, deputy minister of regional policy and mass communications for the Rostov region was quoted as saying.

Independent Russian newspaper Novaya Gazeta is reporting that PMC Wagner’s military hardware damaged over 10,000 square metres (6.2 square miles) of road surface.

It cites Mayor Alexey Logvinenko as saying it is expected that repairs to the road will take two days.

The Wagner fighters had captured the city of Rostov overnight on Friday and had reportedly maintained complete control of the region on Saturday.

But on Saturday night, Wagner fighters loaded tanks on trailers and began withdrawing from the Rostov military headquarters they had seized, a Reuters witness said.

12h GUK04.56 EDT

Wagner fighters were leaving Russia’s southern Voronezh region Sunday, the local governor said, after the group halted a dramatic rebellion to bring down Russia’s top brass and U-turned on a march to Moscow.

Little is known about what happened in Voronezh region on Saturday, where Russia said the army was deployed and led “combat” operations. A huge unexplained fire raged at an oil depot in the city during the mutiny.

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12h GUK05.02 EDT

An uprising by the Wagner mercenary group suggests Vladimir Putin has “lost authority” in Russia, a former MI6 officer has said.

Christopher Steele told Sky News’ Sophy Ridge On Sunday programme: “What’s changed I think is that Vladimir Putin has lost authority and legitimacy within Russia and has been challenged in a way, yes he’s managed to worm his way out of it for the present.

“To see events unfold in Russia yesterday and the speed with which the situation seemed to spiral out of control must be very concerning for Putin and the people around him.”

12h GUK05.14 EDT

A renewed attack on Kyiv from Belarus could take place if Wagner Group mercenaries follow their leader Yevgeny Prigozhin into the country, a former chief of the UK General Staff has warned.

Lord Dannatt told Sky News’ Sophy Ridge On Sunday programme: “Apparently he’s left the stage to go to Belarus but is that the end of Prigozhin and the Wagner Group? The fact that he’s gone to Belarus is I think a matter of some concern.

“What we don’t know, what we will discover in the next hours and days is... how many of his fighters have actually gone with him.

12h GUK05.29 EDT

North Korea’s vice foreign minister in a meeting with the Russian ambassador on Sunday said he supported any decision by the Russian leadership to deal with a recent mutiny, North Korean state media reported.

Im Chon Il, the vice foreign minister, “expressed firm belief that the recent armed rebellion in Russia would be successfully put down in conformity with the aspiration and will of the Russian people,” state KCNA news agency said.

11h GUK05.39 EDT

Chechen special forces deployed to Russia’s Rostov region to resist an advance by the Wagner mercenary group were withdrawing on Sunday, the TASS news agency reported, citing a commander.

The “Akhmat” special forces are returning to where they were fighting previously, commander Apty Alaudinov was quoted as saying by the news agency Reuters reports.

11h GUK05.45 EDT

Heavily armed Russian mercenaries pulled out of the southern Russian city of Rostov overnight after halting their advance on Moscow under a deal that defused an unprecedented challenge to the authority of President Vladimir Putin.

Under the deal, mediated by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, fighters of the Wagner group would return to base in return for guarantees for their safety and their leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, would move to Belarus.

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11h GUK06.14 EDT

Western leaders remain resistant to the idea of Vladimir Putin stepping down, Alexander Litvinenko’s widow Marina has suggested.

She told the BBC’s Sunday With Laura Kuenssberg programme: “They accept Ukrainian people in a different country they have support, but they still want to keep Putin, and at least to have some kind of controlling of Russia.

“(After what happened on Saturday) we can see, Putin doesn’t control nothing. If you want to save Russia from collapsing you need to take Putin out from this place.”

11h GUK06.25 EDT

An analyst has said President Putin “underestimated” Wagner group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin, who led the armed rebellion yesterday.

Independent political analyst Konstantin Kalachev told AFP: “The crisis of institutions and trust was not obvious to many in Russia and the West yesterday. Today, it is clear.

10h GUK06.58 EDT

Russian air strikes on the Ukrainian capital yesterday left five people dead, the city’s mayor has said.

Vitali Klitschko said two more bodies had been found on Sunday under the rubble of an apartment building, Ukrainian media are reporting.

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10h GUK07.12 EDT

Russian mercenary boss Yevgeny Prigozhin was notorious for unbridled and profane challenges to authority even before the attempted rebellion that he mounted Saturday. The reported agreement for him to go into exile in Belarus would place him in a country where such behaviour is even less acceptable than in his homeland, AP reports.

10h GUK07.15 EDT

There was little sign in Moscow on Sunday of the counterterrorism alert that was introduced after Yevgeny Prigozhin launched his revolt and nominally remained in place.

Crowds swarmed the downtown area of the Russian capital on a sunny day and street cafés were packed with customers, according to AP. Traffic had returned to normal and roadblocks and checkpoints were removed.

One detail noticed by the BBC’s Russia editor was a car with the words “WTF is going on?” emblazoned in white letters on its rear window. Steve Rosenberg commented: “Couldn’t have put it better myself”.

10h GUK07.20 EDT

President Vladimir Putin has appeared on Russian state TV for the first time since the armed rebellion threatened to topple his regime, though the comments appear to have been recorded before the mutiny.

Putin renewed his commitment to the war in Ukraine, calling the “special military operation” his top priority.

According to Reuters, he said “I start and end my day with this”.

10h GUK07.22 EDT

Russia’s defence ministry on Sunday said it had repelled attempted attacks by Ukrainian forces in the Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia regions of Ukraine, Russian news agencies reported.

The ministry said it had repelled 10 attacks in the Bakhmut area, agencies reported.

10h GUK07.30 EDT

President Putin is to take part in a regular Russian security council meeting next week, the nation’s state TV has said according to Reuters.

It follows the release of recorded remarks made by Putin before an armed rebellion by Wagner mercenaries.

9h GUK07.39 EDT

The former Russian prime minister Mikhail Kasyanov has said the Wagner rebellion has marked the “beginning of the end” for Vladimir Putin.

Kasyanov, who was Russian PM from 2000-04, has become a vocal critic of Putin and says the Russian president is in “very big trouble right now”.

In comments to the BBC he said that he expected the Wagner leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, to go to Africa after travelling to Belarus and “be somewhere in the jungle”. “Mr Putin cannot forgive him for this,” he said, adding that Prigozhin’s life would be under a “big question” now.

9h GUK07.52 EDT

It was notable that when Yevgeny Prigozhin left the southern Russian city of Rostov-on-Don late on Saturday, he was cheered by crowds of men gathering around his car. The Wagner leader appears to enjoy rapturous support in Russia despite Vladimir Putin branding him a “traitor” that he vowed to “liquidate”.

9h GUK07.58 EDT

Russia’s foreign ministry says China has expressed its support for the leadership in Moscow as Vladimir Putin attempts to stabilise his country following the aborted mutiny by the Wagner group of mercenaries on Saturday.

As Reuters reports, Russia’s deputy foreign minister Andrei Rudenko held a meeting with China’s foreign minister, Qin Gang, after flying to Beijing for talks on “international” issues.

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9h GUK08.16 EDT

Moscow’s Red Square remained closed on Sunday morning after security in the city was tightened following the Wagner rebellion on Saturday. Metal gates prevented people from entering the Russian landmark, while police guarded other entry points.

A “non-working day” order was imposed on Moscow for Monday in response to the perceived threat as Wagner mercenaries drove towards the capital on Saturday.

9h GUK08.24 EDT

There’s a little more detail on the comments from Vladimir Putin which have been aired on Russian state television on Sunday. He did not mention Saturday’s revolt, in which Wagner mercenaries took a southern city before heading toward Moscow, during the short interview.

He said he was confident in his plans for Ukraine but the interview appeared to have been recorded before the aborted Wagner revolt.

8h GUK08.38 EDT

The “big loser” of the armed rebellion was Russia’s long-serving defence minister, Sergei Shoigu, according to an analyst.

Shoigu has long been seen not just as a political ally of President Vladimir Putin but one of the Kremlin chief’s few friends within the Russian elite. They have sun-bathed bare-chested together in remote Siberia, shared fishing holidays and played on the same ice hockey team.

But their friendship and Shoigu’s decades-long political career now face their biggest test after the revolt led by Wagner mercenary group chief Yevgeny Prigozhin, who had lambasted the defence minister’s handling of the invasion of Ukraine.

“The big winner of the night was Lukashenko,” said Arnaud Dubien, director of the Franco-Russian Observatory think tank. “The big loser was Shoigu.”

8h GUK08.45 EDT

Wagner rebellion the 'most ridiculous attempt at mutiny' ever, say Ukrainians

An adviser to the Ukrainian defence minister has described the Wagner rebellion in Russia as “the most ridiculous attempt at mutiny” ever.

“This only makes Russia weaker and makes us stronger,” Yuriy Sak told BBC Radio 4’s The World This Weekend.

“What happened yesterday in Russia, it will probably go down in history as the most ridiculous attempt at mutiny that was ever attempted.

8h GUK08.56 EDT

The UK must prepare for a “deeply dangerous and unpredictable” post-Vladimir Putin Russia, a security expert has warned after the Russian president’s authority was weakened by an attempted rebellion.

Edward Lucas, a senior adviser at the Centre for European Policy Analysis, told BBC Radio 4’s The World This Weekend: “We’ve made very little preparation in this country and done very little thinking about post-Putin Russia.

“There will be all sorts of dilemmas and difficulties we face and we need to start thinking right now about how we deal with them.

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8h GUK09.00 EDT

The Moscow stock exchange, banks and financial institutions are expected to operate as usual on Monday, Russia’s central bank said on Sunday, despite Moscow’s mayor having declared it a non-working day when mercenary leader Yevgeny Prigozhin was leading his Wagner forces towards the city.

Moscow mayor Sergei Sobyanin on Saturday asked people to refrain from trips around the city because of a counterterrorism operation.

8h GUK09.13 EDT

By Olha Zaiarna

In Kyiv, the silence of another summer evening is broken by the loud, piercing sound of an air raid warning. The alert app on our mobile phone sends out a warning to take cover, and Telegram channels inform us that the air defence system is operating, so we need to be careful.

Since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion, the people of Ukraine have been living in a state of constant watchfulness, adjusting their lives to the lack of sleep and psychological consequences of terror from above.

8h GUK09.22 EDT

There has been no change in the US nuclear posture after an armed rebellion in Russia, America’s secretary of state, Antony Blinken, has said. He added that the Wagner uprising was a “direct challenge to Putin’s authority” that shows “real cracks” in Russia’s military direction.

Concerns about the prospect of Wagner millitias gaining access to nuclear weapons had been expressed by Dmitry Medvedev, the deputy head of Russia’s security council, as the uprising roiled on Saturday.

8h GUK09.32 EDT

On Saturday in Copenhagen, as the world trained its eyes on the apparent imminent collapse of Vladimir Putin’s regime, a gathering of senior government security advisers from the global south and the west met with Ukraine’s leadership to discuss a path to peace. The gathering, the first uniting the global south and western powers at this level over Ukraine has the potential to be even more ominous for Putin.

7h GUK09.40 EDT

“What happened in Russia doesn’t make any sense” Yuriy Sak, an adviser to the Ukrainian defence minister told Sky News.

He said it “feels very bizarre” that the Wagner rebels were able to get so close to Moscow before “nothing happened”.

7h GUK09.54 EDT

The Belarusian dictator, Alexander Lukashenko, has emerged as an early beneficiary of the aborted Wagner march on Moscow, but those benefits may not have a long shelf life.

Whether or not Lukashenko played quite the enterprising broker’s role described in the statements coming out of the Kremlin and Minsk (and most analysts are sceptical) he has emerged in the Russian press as the hero of the hour, the man who saved Moscow.

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7h GUK10.09 EDT

US secretary of state declines to 'speculate' on whereabouts of Putin after mutiny

The US secretary of state has declined to “speculate” on the whereabouts of Vladimir Putin following an armed rebellion in Russia.

Speculation was rampant online during the Wagner mercenary fighters’ mutiny that Putin may have left Moscow. Flight data showing his presidential plane on the move added to the uncertainty.

7h GUK10.20 EDT

While Putin was forced to watch his back, Ukraine seemed to have stepped up its counteroffensive.

On Saturday afternoon, while Prigozhin was moving towards the Kremlin, the Ukraine military reported an offensive near the villages surrounding Bakhmut, taken by Wagner forces in May, after months of fighting. In the evening, Oleksandr Tarnavsky, a Ukrainian commander, told the national news agency of Ukraine, Ukrinform, that its forces had liberated territories near the city of Krasnohorivka, in the Donetsk region, which pro-Russia separatists have occupied since 2014.

6h GUK10.35 EDT

China on Sunday said it supported Russia in “protecting national stability”, in Beijing’s first official remarks on a short-lived armed uprising led by the head of the Wagner mercenary group, Yevgeny Prigozhin.

“As a friendly neighbour and a new era comprehensive strategic cooperative partner, China supports Russia in protecting national stability and achieving development and prosperity,” the foreign ministry said in a statement.

6h GUK10.53 EDT

Here is a summary of today's developments:

· The Wagner leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, has agreed to leave Russia and ordered his fighters to withdraw from Rostov and halt their march on Moscow, under the terms of a deal negotiated by Belarus.

· The Russian president, Vladimir Putin, has appeared on Russian state TV for the first time since the armed rebellion threatened to topple his regime, though the comments appear to have been recorded before the mutiny.

· US spy agencies picked up information suggesting Prigozhin was planning to take action against Russia’s military leadership as early as mid-June, US media has reported.

· Putin is “obviously very afraid” and “probably hiding”, the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, has said in his latest evening address.

· The Kremlin struggled to put together a coherent response to the Wagner mutiny “highlighting internal security weaknesses likely due to surprise and the impact of heavy losses in Ukraine”, the Institute for the Study of War has said in its latest analysis of the conflict.

· All transport restrictions in Russia’s Rostov region – which was controlled by Wagner mutineers on Saturday – have been lifted, including those on highways, Russian news agencies reported on Sunday, citing local officials.

· An adviser to the Ukrainian defence minister has described the Wagner rebellion in Russia as “the most ridiculous attempt at mutiny” ever.

· There has been no change in the US nuclear posture after an armed rebellion in Russia, America’s secretary of state, Antony Blinken, has said. He added that the Wagner uprising was a “direct challenge to Putin’s authority” that shows “real cracks” in Russia’s military direction.

6h GUK10.56 EDT

For nearly 24 hours, millions of Ukrainians believed that the war with Russia might be nearing its conclusion. From 9am on Friday, when Wagner chief, Yevgeny Prigozhin, announced his march on Moscow, until 8pm on Saturday, when mercenary troops with their tanks and armoured vehicles were just over 180 miles (300km) from the Russian capital, the battered country glimpsed the end of Putin’s regime.

Then, suddenly, when the Russian warlord called off his advance, the revived enthusiasm quickly ebbed away, giving way to disappointment and frustration, with many refusing to believe the Belarusian-brokered deal to end the armed uprising was real.

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6h GUK11.13 EDT

What next for Yevgeny Prigozhin?

The Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said on Saturday that the Wagner head had agreed to leave Russia for Belarus as part of a deal to end his armed revolt, while charges against him for organising the rebellion would be dropped. Peskov added that Vladimir Putin and the Belarusian dictator, Alexander Lukashenko, had guaranteed Prigozhin’s personal safety.

The warlord’s current whereabouts is unknown. He was last seen leaving the Russian city of Rostov-on-Don late on Saturday to a rapturous reception, with crowds of men gathering around him.

From GUK Russia-Ukraine war at a glance: Putin appears on Russian TV after Wagner rebellion

President restates commitment to ‘special military operation’ in comments seemingly recorded before mutiny

· See all our Ukraine war coverage

Charlie Moloney with Guardian staff and agencies

Sun 25 Jun 2023 11.22 EDT

· President Vladimir Putin appeared on Russian state TV for the first time since the armed rebellion threatened to topple his regime and restated his commitment to the “special military operation” in Ukraine, though the comments appear to have been recorded before the mutiny.

· There has been no change in the US nuclear posture after an armed rebellion in Russia, the US secretary of state, Antony Blinken, has said. He added that the Wagner uprising was a “direct challenge to Putin’s authority” that shows “real cracks” in Russia’s military direction.

· All transport restrictions in Russia’s Rostov region – which was controlled by Wagner mutineers on Saturday – have been lifted, including those on highways, Russian news agencies reported on Sunday, citing local officials.

· An adviser to the Ukrainian defence minister has described the Wagner rebellion in Russia as “the most ridiculous attempt at mutiny” ever.

· In an abrupt about-face, the Wagner chief, Yevgeny Prigozhin, called off his troops’ march on Moscow and ordered them to move out of Rostov on Saturday. Under a deal brokered by Belarus, Prigozhin agreed to leave Russia and move to Belarus. He will not face charges and Wagner troops who took part in the rebellion will not face any action in recognition of their previous service to Russia.

· Prigozhin said in a statement that he had wanted to avoid the spilling of Russian blood. “Now the moment has come when blood can be shed,” he said. “Therefore, realising all the responsibility for the fact that Russian blood will be shed from one side, we will turn our convoys around and go in the opposite direction to our field camps.”

· The Wagner leader was later pictured leaving the headquarters of the southern military district (SMD) in Rostov, which his forces had occupied on Saturday. Wagner forces also shot down three military helicopters and had entered the Lipetsk region, about 360km (225 miles) south of Moscow, before they were called back.

· The press office of Belarus’s president, Alexander Lukashenko, was the first to announce that Prigozhin would be backing down. It said Lukashenko had negotiated a de-escalation with the Wagner head after talking to the Russian president, Vladimir Putin. Lukashenko said Putin had since thanked him for his negotiation efforts.

· Putin has not publicly commented on Lukashenko’s deal with Prigozhin. He appeared on television earlier on Saturday in an emergency broadcast, issuing a nationwide call for unity in the face of a mutinous strike that he compared to the revolution of 1917. “Any internal mutiny is a deadly threat to our state, to us as a nation,” he said.

· Putin reportedly took a plane heading north-west from Moscow on Saturday afternoon. His current whereabouts is unclear.

· The Ukrainian president said that Putin was “obviously very afraid” and “probably hiding”. In his latest evening address, Volodymyr Zelenskiy said: “Today the world saw that the bosses of Russia do not control anything. Nothing at all. Complete chaos. Complete absence of any predictability. And it is happening on Russian territory, which is fully loaded with weapons.”

· US spy agencies reportedly picked up information suggesting the Wagner leader was planning to take action against Russia’s military leadership as early as mid-June. The Washington Post and New York Times said US intelligence officials had conducted briefings at the White House and the Pentagon and on Capitol Hill about the potential for unrest in Russia the day before it unfolded.

· Analysts have been confounded by the events. Most say it is too early to determine whether Putin will fall but agree he has been substantially damaged. The Institute for the Study of War noted that the Kremlin struggled to put together a coherent response to the mutiny and that “Wagner likely could have reached the outskirts of Moscow if Prigozhin chose to order them to do so”.

· Ukraine’s military said on Saturday that its forces had made advances near Bakhmut, on the eastern front, and farther south. The deputy defence minister, Hanna Maliar, said an offensive was launched near a group of villages ringing Bakhmut, which Wagner forces took control of in May after months of fighting. Oleksandr Tarnavskyi, the commander of the southern front, said Ukrainian forces had liberated an area near Krasnohorivka, west of the Russian-held regional centre of Donetsk.

6h GUK11.31 EDT

Vladimir Putin and his Belarusian counterpart Alexander Lukashenko spoke again by phone on Sunday morning, Belarus’ Belta news agency reported.

The two men spoke at least twice on Saturday. Lukashenko brokered a deal with Russian mercenary leader Yevgeny Prigozhin who had agreed to de-escalate the situation and move to Belarus.

Photos: See Guardian site for images:

5h GUK11.55 EDT

A policeman patrols an empty Red Square in Moscow.

5h GUK11.56 EDT

Security officers check a car in front of the Borovitskaya Tower of the Moscow Kremlin. Troops deployed in Moscow the previous day to protect the capital from Wagner mercenaries have withdrawn from the capital, and people swarmed the streets and flocked to cafes.

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Updated at 12.51 EDT

5h GUK12.21 EDT

US house of representatives intelligence committee chairman, Mike Turner, said Vladimir Putin’s future actions in Ukraine could be inhibited by Yevgeny Prigozhin’s assertion that the rationale for invading Ukraine was based on lies concocted by the Russian top brass.

“Taking down the very premise makes it much more difficult for Putin to continue to turn to the Russian people and say, we should continue to send people to die,” Turner told CBS’ Face the Nation program.

4h GUK12.41 EDT

Part of Dmitry Kiselyov’s Russian state TV programme has been tweeted by Francis Scarr from BBC Monitoring.

Kiselyov said the swift resolution of the Wagner Group’s mutiny shows Russia is a united nation.

He also played an archive clip of Vladimir Putin saying he is able to forgive many things, but not “betrayal”.

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4h GUK13.02 EDT

A summary of today's developents

· Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin has agreed to leave Russia and ordered his fighters to withdraw from Rostov and halt their march on Moscow, under the terms of a deal negotiated by Belarus.

· President Vladimir Putin has appeared on Russian state TV for the first time since the armed rebellion threatened to topple his regime, though the comments appear to have been recorded before the mutiny. Putin and his Belarusian counterpart Alexander Lukashenko spoke again by phone on Sunday morning, Belarus’ Belta news agency reported.

· US spy agencies picked up information suggesting Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin was planning to take action against Russia’s military leadership as early as mid-June, US media has reported.

· Russian president Vladimir Putin is “obviously very afraid” and “probably hiding”, Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy has said in his latest evening address.

· The Kremlin struggled to put together a coherent response to the Wagner mutiny “highlighting internal security weaknesses likely due to surprise and the impact of heavy losses in Ukraine,” the Institute for the Study of War has said in its latest analysis of the conflict.

· All transport restrictions in Russia’s Rostov region – which was controlled by Wagner mutineers on Saturday - have been lifted, including those on highways, Russian news agencies reported on Sunday, citing local officials.

· An adviser to the Ukrainian defence minister has described the Wagner rebellion in Russia as “the most ridiculous attempt at mutiny” ever.

· There has been no change in the US nuclear posture after an armed rebellion in Russia, America’s secretary of state, Antony Blinken, has said. He added that the Wagner uprising was a “direct challenge to Putin’s authority” that shows “real cracks” in Russia’s military direction.

4h GUK13.20 EDT

Lithuanian president Gitanas Nausėda warned that Nato will need to strengthen its eastern flank if Belarus becomes the new host of Wagner head Yevgeny Prigozhin.

Lithuania will hold the Nato summit next month and said that the general security plan for the meeting will not change following the recent developments in Russia.

The president went on to say that he believed Russian president Vladimir Putin may face further challenges to his leadership.

“The king is naked,” Nauseda said.

3h GUK13.46 EDT

Two civilians were killed on Sunday in Donetsk after shelling by Ukrainian forces, the Russian-installed mayor Alexei Kulemzin said on Telegram, Reuters reports.

According to Kulemzin, a male victim born in 2005 and a woman born in 1956 died due to enemy fire.

1400

3h GUK14.10 EDT

Rebellion shows Russian authorities are 'weak', says Ukraine's defence minister

Ukraine’s defence minister, Oleksii Reznikov, said that he had a conversation with US defence secretary Lloyd Austin on Sunday, describing the Russian authorities as “weak.”

2h GUK14.34 EDT

France’s president, Emmanuel Macron, said that the revolt lead by Russia’s Wagner mercenary group against the country’s leadership highlights divisions within the Russian government.

Speaking to the Provence newspaper on Sunday, Macron said that Wagner’s march to Moscow, which came to an abrupt halt over the weekend, “shows the divisions that exist within the Russian camp, and the fragility of both its military and its auxillary forces.”

1500

2h GUK15.02 EDT

Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, held a phone call with the Canadian prime minister, Justin Trudeau, saying that he was “grateful for [Trudeau’s] recent visit to Kyiv and to Canada and all Canadians for their continued support of Ukraine”.

2h GUK15.27 EDT

Over the course of a day, the Ukrainian military allegedly advanced from 600 metres to 1,000 metres on the southern and northern flanks around Bakhmut, Serhiy Cherevaty, spokesman for the eastern group of forces, told Ukrainian news agencies.

While Putin was forced to watch his back, Ukraine seemed to have stepped up its counteroffensive.

On Saturday afternoon, while Prigozhin was moving towards the Kremlin, the Ukraine military reported an offensive near the villages surrounding Bakhmut, taken by Wagner forces in May, after months of fighting.

2h GUK 15.55 EDT

Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy speaks with US president Joe Biden

Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, said he discussed the weekend’s turmoil in Russia in a phone call with the US president, Joe Biden, on Sunday and that the events had exposed the weakness of Vladimir Putin’s rule, Reuters reports.

In a statement, Zelenskiy called for global pressure to be exerted on Russia and said that he and Biden had also discussed expanding defence cooperation with an emphasis on long-range weapons.

1600

42m GUK16.19 EDT

Following several whirlwind news cycles and a tense weekend, Russian authorities have told journalists to take a day off.

Agence France-Presse reports:

Knackered after covering a stunning march on Moscow by a small army of mercenaries? Take a day off after a “tense” weekend, Russian authorities told journalists on Sunday.

18m GUK16.43 EDT

Here is the full statement released by Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, on his call with the US president, Joe Biden, earlier today: (See website for link)

1700

2m GUK17.00 EDT

Closing Summary

It is midnight in Kyiv. Here is a roundup of the day’s key events:

· Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, said he discussed the weekend’s turmoil in Russia in a phone call with the US president, Joe Biden, on Sunday and that the events had exposed the weakness of Vladimir Putin’s rule. In a statement, Zelenskiy called for global pressure to be exerted on Russia and said that he and Biden had also discussed expanding defence cooperation with an emphasis on long-range weapons.

· Over the course of a day, the Ukrainian military allegedly advanced from 600 metres to 1,000 metres on the southern and northern flanks around Bakhmut, Serhiy Cherevaty, spokesman for the eastern group of forces, told Ukrainian news agencies. On Saturday afternoon, while Prigozhin was moving towards the Kremlin, the Ukraine military reported an offensive near the villages surrounding Bakhmut, taken by Wagner forces in May, after months of fighting.

· Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, held a phone call with the Canadian prime minister, Justin Trudeau, saying that he was “grateful for [Trudeau’s] recent visit to Kyiv and to Canada and all Canadians for their continued support of Ukraine.” In a statement on Twitter, Zelenskiy wrote: “I spoke about the current situation on the battlefield and shared [Ukraine’s] assessments of the attempted coup in [Russia] and the impact of this situation on the course of hostilities.”

· France’s president, Emmanuel Macron, said that the revolt lead by Russia’s Wagner mercenary group against the country’s leadership highlights divisions within the Russian government. Speaking to the Provence newspaper on Sunday, Macron said that Wagner’s march to Moscow, which came to an abrupt halt over the weekend, “shows the divisions that exist within the Russian camp, and the fragility of both its military and its auxiliary forces.”

· Ukraine’s defence minister, Oleksii Reznikov, said that he had a conversation with US defence secretary Lloyd Austin on Sunday, describing the Russian authorities as “weak.” Reznikov wrote on Twitter: “We talked about recent events in Russia. We agree that the Russian authorities are weak and that withdrawing Russian troops from Ukraine is the best choice for the Kremlin. Russia would be better served to address its own issues.”

· Lithuanian president Gitanas Nausėda warned that Nato will need to strengthen its eastern flank if Belarus becomes the new host of Wagner head Yevgeny Prigozhin. Following a state security council meeting on the mercenary group’s attempt to revolt against Russian military leadership, Nausėda said: “If Prigozhin or part of the Wagner group ends up in Belarus with unclear plans and unclear intentions, it will only mean that we need to further strengthen the security of our eastern borders.”

· Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin has agreed to leave Russia and ordered his fighters to withdraw from Rostov and halt their march on Moscow, under the terms of a deal negotiated by Belarus.

· President Vladimir Putin has appeared on Russian state TV for the first time since the armed rebellion threatened to topple his regime, though the comments appear to have been recorded before the mutiny. Putin and his Belarusian counterpart Alexander Lukashenko spoke again by phone on Sunday morning, Belarus’ Belta news agency reported.

· US spy agencies picked up information suggesting Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin was planning to take action against Russia’s military leadership as early as mid-June, US media has reported.

· Russian president Vladimir Putin is “obviously very afraid” and “probably hiding”, Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy has said in his latest evening address.

· All transport restrictions in Russia’s Rostov region – which was controlled by Wagner mutineers on Saturday - have been lifted, including those on highways, Russian news agencies reported on Sunday, citing local officials.

· An adviser to the Ukrainian defence minister has described the Wagner rebellion in Russia as “the most ridiculous attempt at mutiny” ever.

· There has been no change in the US nuclear posture after an armed rebellion in Russia, America’s secretary of state, Antony Blinken, has said. He added that the Wagner uprising was a “direct challenge to Putin’s authority” that shows “real cracks” in Russia’s military direction.

That’s it from me, Maya Yang, as we close the blog for today. Thank you for following along.

RISE of the VIEWPOINTEERS:

Today, Monday, June 26th

Overnight... Midnight to Dawn EDT

From ABC NEWS:

RUSSIAN REBELLION TIMELINE: HOW THE WAGNER GROUP'S UPRISING AGAINST PUTIN UNFOLDED

A Putin ally called Friday for rebellion. It was all over by Saturday evening.

By Kevin Shalvey June 26, 2023, Beginning at 5:09 AM

Takeaways:

Confrontation between Kremlin military and Wagner mercenary group averted

Confrontation between Kremlin military and Wagner mercenary group averted

The unrest in Russia was diffused when the Wagner troops, led by one-time Putin ally, Yevgeny Prigozhin, pulled back from...Read More

LONDON -- A chaotic armed rebellion that threatened the longstanding leadership of Russian President Vladimir Putin began Friday and appeared to have been quelled by Saturday evening.

MORE: Russia-Ukraine live updates: 'Mystery' why Prigozhin stopped march, US official says

The uprising, led by Yevgeny Prigozhin, chief of the paramilitary Wagner Group, began in the southern Russian city of Rostov-on-Don. Forces loyal to Prigozhin marched toward Moscow, before turning back Saturday night.

0000

From the Guardian U.K.:

17h ago 00.32 EDT

Opening summary

Hello and welcome to the Guardian’s live coverage of the war in Ukraine and the crisis in Russia.

Ukraine’s military says it has advanced between 600 metres and 1,000 metres on the southern and northern flanks around Bakhmut, the city which was taken by Wagner forces in May. The military also reported advances in the area on Saturday, as Wagner forces were marching on Moscow. It was not possible to verify the reports.

AFP reported fierce clashes in the area on Sunday, with Ukrainian soldiers telling the news agency that the Wagner mutiny had not noticeably affected fighting in the area. “As it attacked yesterday, Russia continued to attack today,” one soldier said, while another said that for Ukraine, the fighting was going “according to plan”.

The Russian rouble has opened at a near 15-month low against the dollar in early morning trading on Monday, responding for the first time to the rebellion.

At 0402 GMT, the rouble was 2.1% weaker against the dollar at 86.37, hitting 86.8800 on market opening, its weakest point since late March 2022, Reuters reported.

In other key developments:

· US secretary of state Antony Blinken has said the Wagner uprising showed “real cracks” in Vladimir Putin’s government and may offer Ukraine a crucial advantage as it conducts a counteroffensive that could influence the outcome of the war. “This is an unfolding story and I think we’re in the midst of a moving picture,” Blinken told the CBS News programme Face the Nation. “We haven’t seen the last act.”

· There has been no word from Putin or Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin since the rebellion ended and their whereabouts are unclear. Putin appeared on Russian state TV on Sunday but the comments appeared to have been recorded before the mutiny. In an interview broadcast on state television he made no reference to the rebellion but renewed his commitment to the war in Ukraine, calling the “special military operation” his top priority.

· Lithuanian president Gitanas Nausėda warned that Nato would need to strengthen its eastern flank if Prigozhin is exiled to Belarus as agreed with Moscow. Following a state security council meeting on the mercenary group’s attempt to revolt against Russian military leadership, Nausėda said: “If Prigozhin or part of the Wagner group ends up in Belarus with unclear plans and unclear intentions, it will only mean that we need to further strengthen the security of our eastern borders.”

· State television also said Putin would attend a meeting of Russia’s Security Council this week, without elaborating. Belarus’ Belta news agency said Putin and President Alexander Lukashenko, who negotiated with Prigozhin to end the mutiny, spoke again on Sunday, after at least two calls on Saturday.

· The weekend’s events have “exposed the weakness of Putin’s regime”, Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, has said, saying he had discussed the turmoil in Russia in a phone call with the US president, Joe Biden. In a statement, Zelenskiy called for global pressure to be exerted on Russia and said that he and Biden had also discussed expanding defence cooperation with an emphasis on long-range weapons.

· The Ukrainian president said he had also held “positive conversations” with Canadian prime minister Justin Trudeau and Polish president Andrzej Duda. They discussed “hostilities on the frontline” and the “further strengthening of Ukrainian troops”.

· France’s president, Emmanuel Macron, said that the revolt highlighted divisions within the Russian government. Speaking to the Provence newspaper on Sunday, Macron said that Wagner’s march to Moscow “shows the divisions that exist within the Russian camp, and the fragility of both its military and its auxiliary forces.”

· Ukraine’s defence minister, Oleksii Reznikov, said he spoke to US defence secretary Lloyd Austin on Sunday, and described the Russian authorities as “weak”. Reznikov wrote on Twitter: “We talked about recent events in Russia. We agree that the Russian authorities are weak and that withdrawing Russian troops from Ukraine is the best choice for the Kremlin. Russia would be better served to address its own issues.”

· Russian officials said that houses and roads had been damaged because of the rebellion by the Wagner mercenaries. Nineteen houses had been damaged in the village of Yelizavetovka as a result of a firefight involving Wagner forces while about 10,000 square metres of roads in Rostov had been damaged by tank tracks.

17h GUK 00.41 EDT

Ukraine advances up to 1km near Bakhmut

Ukraine’s military says it has advanced between 600 metres and 1,000 metres on the southern and northern flanks around Bakhmut, the city which was taken by Wagner forces in May.

The military also reported advances in the area on Saturday, as Wagner forces were marching on Moscow. It was not possible to verify the reports.

AFP reported fierce clashes in the area on Sunday, with Ukrainian soldiers telling the news agency that the Wagner mutiny had not noticeably affected fighting in the area.

“As it attacked yesterday, Russia continued to attack today,” one soldier said, adding. “Most people, most military, understand very well that the circus from Russia is still here.” Another said that for Ukraine, the fighting was going “according to plan”.

Kyiv has said that the unrest in Russia offered a “window of opportunity” for its long-awaited counter-offensive.

17h GUK 00.49 EDT

Russian rouble at weakest point since March 2022

The Russian rouble has opened at a near 15-month low against the dollar in early morning trade on Monday, responding for the first time to the Wagner mutiny, according to Reuters.

By 0415 GMT, the rouble was 2.1% weaker against the dollar at 86.50, after earlier hitting 87.2300, its weakest point since late March 2022. It had lost 2.2% to trade at 94.37 versus the euro and shed 2.1% against the yuan to 11.95.

More from Reuters:

With the rouble not trading over the weekend, Russian banks were offering exchange rates well above official rate beyond 90 to the dollar.

Monday’s full trading session begins at 0700 GMT. Investors globally were watching for ripple effects from the aborted mutiny, with some expecting a move into safe havens such as US government bonds and the dollar.

Brent crude oil, a global benchmark for Russia’s main export, was up 0.2% at $74.03 a barrel.

0100

16h GUK 01.03 EDT

Video released of Russian defence minister Shoigu visiting troops in Ukraine

Russian defence minister Sergei Shoigu has visited troops in Ukraine, Russian news agency Ria has reported, his first public appearance since the Wagner mutiny at the weekend.

Shoigu has not commented on the rebellion, during which Wagner head Yevgeny Prigozhin demanded that the defence minister meet him in Rostov before calling off the mutiny.

In a post on Telegram, Ria reported that Shoigu met Colonel-General Nikiforov, commander of the ‘western’ grouping:

The minister also paid special attention to the organization of support for the troops involved in the special military operation and the creation of conditions for the safe deployment of personnel.

In a video released by the Russian defence ministry, Shoigu is described as being in the western sector of the “special military operation” – Russia’s preferred term for its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. There is nothing in the video which gives an indication of where or when it was filmed.

16h GUK 01.11 EDT

The Australian government has pledged a new $110m military assistance package in the next round of support for Ukraine, including vehicles, ammunition and humanitarian funding.

“This package responds to Ukraine’s requests for vehicles and ammunition, and will make a tangible difference on the battlefield,” the prime minister, Anthony Albanese, said in a statement.

Canberra has committed 70 military vehicles, including 28 M113 armoured vehicles, 14 special operations vehicles, 28 MAN 40M medium trucks and 14 trailers; a new supply of 105mm artillery ammunition; and $10m to the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs – for the Ukraine Humanitarian Fund – to assist in the provision of shelter, health services, water and sanitation.

“We support international efforts to ensure [Russian president Vladimir] Putin’s aggression fails and that Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity prevails,” Albanese said.

The government said the latest commitment took Australia’s total contribution to Ukraine to $790m, including $610m in military assistance.

Australia pledges $100m in new military support for Ukraine, including vehicles and ammunition.

16h GUK 01.21 EDT

The Kremlin “likely risks Prigozhin’s armed rebellion expanding the window of acceptable anti-Kremlin criticism,” the Institute for the Study of War has said in its latest analysis, particularly if the Kremlin does not retaliate further against the Wagner leader.

The US thinktank used the example of a pre-planned meeting by the ultranationalist Angry Patriots Club in Moscow on Sunday, at which former Russian officer Igor Girkin reiterated that Putin needs to legally transfer certain presidential authorities to other parties if he is unwilling to assume control over the war in Ukraine as the supreme commander-in-chief.

Officials were likely aware of the event as the club had been promoting it for weeks, the ISW noted, adding:

If the Kremlin intends to use Prigozhin’s rebellion as pretext to start immediately suppressing antGUK nistic ultranationalists, then this event would have likely been a prime candidate to start that effort ...

The Kremlin’s continued careful response to the armed rebellion will likely prompt other Russian nationalists to test Russian official reactions to more explicitly critical rhetoric.

16h GUK 01.42 EDT

Ukraine has reclaimed some 130 square kilometres (50 square miles) from Russian forces along the southern front line since the start of the counteroffensive, Ukrainian deputy defence minister Hanna Maliar has said according to Reuters.

“The situation in the south has not undergone significant changes over the past week,” Maliar told the national broadcaster.

She added that along the eastern part of the front line, which includes the Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Maryinka directions, about 250 combat clashes had taken place over the past week.

The invasion had nothing to do with denazifying Ukraine nor was it launched because Ukraine was about to attack Russia – rather it was due to Shoigu’s desire for a second “hero of Russia” medal, he said.

“What was the war for? The war needed for Shoigu to receive a hero star … The oligarchic clan that rules Russia needed the war,” Prigozhin said.

“The mentally ill scumbags decided: ‘It’s OK, we’ll throw in a few thousand more Russian men as cannon fodder. They’ll die under artillery fire, but we’ll get what we want,’” Prigozhin continued.

16h GUK 01.53 EDT

It’s still unclear exactly what the terms of the deal to end the rebellion mean for Wagner, but the ISW suggests that the fact that Wagner troops are returning to base with their equipment means that the Kremlin intends to maintain at least elements of the group, rather than immediately demobilising them.

It noted that the head of the Duma defence committee, Andrei Kartapolov, on Sunday announced it was working on a law to regulate private military companies but emphasised it was not necessary to ban the Wagner Group as it is “the most combat-ready unit in Russia.”

He also said that Wagner forces in Rostov were “following orders of their command” and “did nothing reprehensible.”

Kartapolov’s efforts to absolve Wagner personnel of responsibility for taking part in an armed rebellion and separate them from Prigozhin may indicate the Russian government’s desire to continue to use Wagner personnel in some capacity, and as ISW assessed on June 24, the Russian leadership could redeploy Wagner to Ukraine or instead commit them to international missions.

0200

15h GUK 02.07 EDT

China downplays Wagner rebellion, media describes it as 'illusion' exploited by west

Chinese officials have described the abandoned Wagner rebellion as Moscow’s “internal affairs”, while one state media mouthpiece dismissed the divisions in Russia as an “illusion” being exploited by the west.

Russia’s deputy foreign minister Andrei Rudenko held previously unannounced talks in Beijing on Sunday. It was not clear if they had been planned in advance or came as a result of the Wagner mutiny.

China’s foreign ministry said it supported Russia in maintaining its national stability, without explicitly referring to Putin’s leadership.

“As a friendly neighbour and comprehensive strategic partner in the new era, China supports Russia in maintaining national stability and achieving development and prosperity,” it said.

China downplays Wagner rebellion as Russia’s ‘internal affairs’

15h GUK 02.17 EDT

More than 17,000 Ukrainian recruits have been trained by Britain and other allies over the last year to help fight Russia’s invasion, the UK Ministry of Defence said on Monday, according to AFP.

The recruits, from many different walks of life, all went through a “gruelling” five-week programme which the ministry said had transformed them “from civilians to soldiers”.

Britain and nine partner nations – Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Norway, Finland, Sweden, Denmark, Lithuania and the Netherlands – opened the initiative for new volunteer recruits to the armed forces of Ukraine in June last year.

The UK-led training programme, dubbed Operation Interflex, taught the recruits, who had little to no previous military experience, various skills including weapons handling, battlefield first aid and patrol tactics.

“The determination and resilience of the Ukrainian recruits that arrive on British soil, from all walks of life, to train to fight alongside our British and international forces, is humbling to witness,” the UK defence secretary, Ben Wallace, said.

“The UK and our international partners will continue to provide this vital support, helping Ukraine defend against Russian aggression, for as long as it takes.”

Britain initially offered to train up to 10,000 Ukrainian soldiers in battlefield skills, based on the UK’s basic soldier training.

The programme has now been extended and is on track to train about 30,000 recruits by 2024, according to the British defence ministry.

It said intelligence had shown that the training made “a significant difference to the combat effectiveness of Ukraine”.

“The UK armed forces maintains close communication with Ukraine to improve and evolve the course based on the skills most needed on the battlefield,” the ministry added.

15h GUK 02.22 EDT

Moscow mayor ends emergency 'counter-terrorism' measures imposed after Wagner rebellion

Moscow’s mayor, Sergei Sobyanin, said he was cancelling the counter-terrorism regime imposed in the Russian capital during what the authorities on Saturday called an armed mutiny by the Wagner mercenary group.

Sobyanin made the announcement in a statement posted on the Telegram messaging application on Monday, in which he thanked residents for their “calmness and understanding.”

Reuters reports that separately, Russia’s national anti-terrorism committee said the situation in the country was “stable”.

14h GUK 02.57 EDT

Suspilne, Ukraine’s state broadcaster, offers this round-up of overnight news from Ukraine:

At night, Russia attacked Ukraine from the south with three Kalibr cruise missiles and eight Shahed drones – two missiles and seven drones were shot down. Also, four drones of an unknown type were launched from the north, all of them were shot down.

Air defence forces were working in Odesa, one missile and a drone hit “certain objects” in the region the spokesperson for the air force command of the armed forces of Ukraine, said. There were no reports of injuries.

At dawn, Russian troops dropped prohibited incendiary shells on Kherson and Antonivka, fires broke out. Olhivka was also hit at night, one person was injured.

The claims have not been independently verified.

0300

14h GUK 03.21 EDT

Citing Russia’s state-owned RIA news agency, Reuters reports that Russian security forces claim to have detained a Russian citizen on charges of sending money to Ukraine to buy drones and military equipment.

14h GUK 03.39 EDT

Events over the weekend show that Russia’s military power is “cracking” and the “monster Putin has created is turning against him”, the EU’s high representative for foreign affairs, Josep Borrell has said.

But he warned that the instability in Russia was dangerous and must be taken into account in the coming days and weeks.

“What is happening in Russia, it is important to understand that this is cracking the Russian military power and affecting its political system. And certainly it is not it’s not a good thing to see that a nuclear power like Russia is going into a phase of political instability,” he said on arrival at a summit of EU foreign ministers in Luxembourg.

“The most important conclusion is the war against Ukraine launched by Putin and the monster that Putin created with Wagner, the monster is fighting, the monster is acting against his creator. The political system it’s showing its fragilities and the military power is cracking,” he added.

The cancelled mutiny in Russia will be top of the agenda at the Luxembourg summit of ministers who are expected to rapprove a pledge to give more funds to Ukraine’s military option.

They are also expected to approve the 11th round of sanctions against Russia, aimed at stopping Putin circumventing previous sanctions by using third countries to shop crude oil and other products around the world.

0400

13h GUK 04.04 EDT

A couple of prominent Russian military bloggers on Telegram have suggested that defence minister Sergei Shoigu was known to be visiting the Belgorod region on the border with Ukraine on Friday, and that the images and video released today by the Russian defence ministry may date from that trip, which would have occurred before the Wagner mutiny.

Nevertheless, at the FT’s Moscow bureau chief Max Seddon notes, the fact the video has been released is clearly intended to send a signal about the status of Shoigu.

13h GUK 04.06 EDT

Nato's Stoltenberg: mutiny shows Putin made 'big strategic mistake' in annexing Crimea and invading Ukraine

The aborted mutiny by the Wagner mercenary group in Russia demonstrates that Moscow committed a strategic mistake by waging war on Ukraine, Nato secretary-general Jens Stoltenberg said on Monday.

“The events over the weekend are an internal Russian matter, and yet another demonstration of the big strategic mistake that President [Vladimir] Putin made with his illegal annexation of Crimea and the war against Ukraine,” he told reporters on a visit to Lithuania’s capital Vilnius.

Reuters reports he added: “As Russia continues its assault, it is even more important to continue our support to Ukraine.”

13h GUK 04.29 EDT

Criminal investigation into Prigozhin continues – Russian media reports

RIA Novosti, the Russian state-owned news agency, is reporting that the criminal case against Yevgeny Prigozhin over the mutiny has not been dropped. It was reported at the weekend that investigation into him would be closed as part of the deal that brought the march on Moscow to an end. RIA posted to Telegram to say:

The criminal case against Prigozhin has not been terminated, a source in the prosecutor general’s office told RIA Novosti.

12h GUK 04.59 EDT

Ukrainian foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba urged the EU on Monday to “accelerate Russia’s defeat” by stepping up support for Ukraine.

Reuters reports Kuleba, who was attending a meeting with EU foreign ministers, said on Twitter the fact that tanks had moved towards Moscow during a thwarted coup showed that “Ukraine will win”.

0500

From ABC NEWS:

CONFRONTATION BETWEEN KREMLIN MILITARY AND WAGNER MERCENARY GROUP AVERTED

The unrest in Russia was diffused when the Wagner troops, led by one-time Putin ally, Yevgeny Prigozhin, pulled back from.

LONDON -- A chaotic armed rebellion that threatened the longstanding leadership of Russian President Vladimir Putin began Friday and appeared to have been quelled by Saturday evening.

MORE: Russia-Ukraine live updates: 'Mystery' why Prigozhin stopped march, US official says

The uprising, led by Yevgeny Prigozhin, chief of the paramilitary Wagner Group, began in the southern Russian city of Rostov-on-Don. Forces loyal to Prigozhin marched toward Moscow, before turning back Saturday night.

Follow our timelines from early Tuesday morning EDT to the present in next week’s Lesson.

0600

Finally, from the Guardian UK:

11h ago06.01 EDT

Summary of the day so far … see here for photos and videos. (Continued next Lesson)

· Russia’s defence minister has appeared on state TV and emergency counter-terrorism measures have been cancelled in Moscow and surrounding regions as the Kremlin seeks to restore calm following Yevgeny Prigozhin’s failed mutiny.

· The defence ministry released footage on Monday that it claimed showed Sergei Shoigu “visiting the forward command post of one of the formations of the ‘Western’ group of troops”. In the video, Shoigu is shown riding in a vehicle and arriving at a command post, where he listens to reports from officers and pores over a battlefield map. The video was released without sound and it was unclear when and where it was filmed, nonetheless, the footage showed tacit government support for Shoigu, whom Prigozhin had sought to oust with his uprising.

· The Wagner chief has not been seen or heard from since he left Rostov with his troops on Saturday evening with an apparent deal offering him amnesty and exile in Belarus, however, Russian state-owned media reports that a criminal investigation into his actions has not ended.

· The rebellion by the Wagner mercenary group in Russia demonstrates that Moscow has committed a strategic mistake by waging war on Ukraine, Nato secretary-general, Jens Stoltenberg, said on Monday. “The events over the weekend are an internal Russian matter, and yet another demonstration of the big strategic mistake that President Vladimir Putin made with his illegal annexation of Crimea and the war against Ukraine,” he told reporters on a visit to Lithuania’s capital, Vilnius.

· Events over the weekend show that Russia’s military power is “cracking” and the “monster Putin has created is turning against him”, the EU’s high representative for foreign affairs, Josep Borrell, has said. But he warned that the instability in Russia was dangerous for Europe and must be taken into account in the coming days and weeks.

· The weekend’s events have “exposed the weakness of Putin’s regime”, Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, has said, saying he had discussed the turmoil in Russia in a phone call with the US president, Joe Biden. In a statement, Zelenskiy called for global pressure to be exerted on Russia and said that he and Biden had also discussed expanding defence cooperation with an emphasis on long-range weapons.

· The Russian rouble opened at a near 15-month low against the dollar in early morning trade on Monday, responding for the first time to the Wagner mutiny.

· Suspilne, Ukraine’s state broadcaster, reported that Russia attacked Ukraine overnight from the south with three Kalibr cruise missiles and eight Shahed drones – two missiles and seven drones were shot down. Also, it claimed, four drones of an unknown type were launched from the north, and all of them were shot down.