the *DON* JONES INDEX…
		GAINS POSTED in GREEN LOSSES POSTED in RED 7/17/23... 15,000.59 7/10/23... 14,996.51
	6/27/13… 15,000.00
*(THE DOW* JONES INDEX: 7/17/23... 34,609.33; 7/10/23... 33,734.88; 6/27/13… 15,000.00)**

LESSON for July 17, 2023 – “HOT, HOT, HOT!”

Less than a month ago, Houston, Texas confirmed its first heat-related death.

Victor Ramos, 67, was found in his home in south-west Houston, which did not have air conditioning. He died on 24 June in hospital. Ramos’ sister Karla told local Houston news outlet KHOU that her brother Ramos could not afford to fix his broken AC unit since he was let go from his job in March and had been struggling to make ends meet while he and his family took care of their sick father. She said he couldn't afford to fix his broken AC unit.

Ramos grew up in California and worked in hot warehouses for most of his adult life. His sister, Karla Ramos, told Pearson that "she never imagined her brother would die from the heat inside his own home."

Late last month, Karla got a call from her brother. "He told me that Friday, the 23rd, 'I'm not feeling good. I'm feeling kind of tired,'" Karla told Pearson. The Medical Examiner's Office said Victor was living in a house without air conditioning at the time, according to Pearson.

Karla urged her brother to take a cool shower and rest. By the time she checked in on him at his home the next morning, it was too late.

"I went back at nine on Saturday morning, and he was gone. I found him with a bunch of saliva on the side, so I knew something was wrong," Karla told Pearson. Karla called 911 and EMTs rushed Victor to the hospital, where he was pronounced dead. The Harris County Medical Examiner's Office confirmed that Victor's was the first heat-related death in Harris County this year, per Pearson.

Ramos' death came on June 24 came a week after a construction worker died from exposure to extreme heat after collapsing on the job in Fort Bend County.

In nearby Pearland, Texas, Felipe Pascaul, 46 succumbed to the heat on 16 June. Pascaul was pouring concrete on a construction job site when he went into cardiac arrest and collapsed. He was taken to a hospital but did not survive. (See the Guardian U.K., Attachment One).

Abbott, since, has ordered the police and members of the National Guard to shred invading migrants on razor wire strung across the border (no land mines, not yet), and from being given water. Small children, however, are afforded some slight relief by throwing them into the Rio Grande, and urging those who can to swim back to Mexico. The rest – well, they perish from either drowning, on the one hand, dysentery from the toxic river water or dehydration (there have been thirty some consecutive days of one hundred some degrees in El Paso).

In what might be considered a wink and nod to catholicism (small “C” to differentiate the secular definition from any religious or humanitarian implications) Abbott has also cracked down on low-income legal immigrants and even native born citizens by approving a law in June that eliminated water breaks for construction workers mandated by cities and counties in the state.

The man is nothing, if not fair.

Further west, the extreme heat wave bound for Phoenix and Southwest could be worst ever.

The Southwest United States is about to endure a heat wave that could rank among its worst in history — both for its intensity and longevity – and it’s predicted to get significantly worse next week. “Computer models that project the weather 16 days into the future “do not show an end to this heat wave,” the Weather Service wrote in a discussion, transmitted by the Washington Post (Attachment Two). “This should go down as one of the longest, if not the longest duration heat wave.”

“The forecast for Phoenix is hot, hot, hot,” the NWS warns.

The blamers have blamed the so-called “Heat Dome”, the El Nino atmospheric phenomenon and, of course, Americans who insist on driving, running their air conditioners and playing energy-gobbling videogames. There’s no clear end in sight to this heat wave. The heat dome, set to expand and strengthen over the region, may persist beyond the limits of current forecasts.

How long this heat wave lasts may ultimately depend on whether monsoon season kicks in, but forecasters expect a near- to below-average monsoon season after a very active one last year.

Coming under fire from left wing scolds like the Guardian U.K. (Attachment Three) and, worse, some of America’s previously friendly politicians, the gas and oil lobbyists have been coerced, as they say, into making promises to behave – promises that the liberals say they have not, will not and cannot keep.

“The fossil fuel industry has massively profited from selling a dangerous product and now innocent people and governments across the globe are paying the price for their recklessness,” Naomi Oreskes, a history of science professor at Harvard University who studies the oil industry, maintains. (GUK, Attachment Three)

Oil majors have, over the past several years, rolled out pledges to decrease oil and gas production and slash their emissions, citing concerns about the climate crisis. But more recently, many have walked those plans back. BP scaled back an earlier goal of lowering its emissions by 35% by 2030, saying it will aim for a 20 to 30% cut instead. ExxonMobil quietly withdrew funding for a heavily publicized effort to use algae to create low-carbon fuel. And Shell announced that it would not increase its investments in renewable energy this year, despite earlier promises to dramatically slash its emissions.

A Shell spokesperson said the company believes “society needs to take action on climate change”, and said that the company had made “no fundamental change” to its climate pledges and was making progress toward those goals.

“It remains our view that global energy demand will continue to grow and be met by different types of energy – including oil and gas,” he said. “In that scenario, a balanced energy transition plays well into our portfolio – one that delivers more value, with less emissions by focusing on performance, discipline and simplification.”

Balance has been lacking though, since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, gas prices have risen – in fact, fossil fuel companies saw record profits last year.

TotalEnergies CEO, Patrick Pouyanne, bluntly told CNBC that his company will continue to pour the majority of its investments into fossil fuels, while Wael Sawan, CEO of Shell, said curbing oil and gas production would be “dangerous and irresponsible”.

“The reality is, the energy system of today continues to desperately need oil and gas,” Sawan told BBC. “And before we are able to let go of that, we need to make sure that we have developed the energy systems of the future – and we are not yet, collectively, moving at the pace [required for] that to happen.”

The future is already here, according to Jeff Goodell, author of The Heat Will Kill You First: Life and Death on a Scorched Planet and a conatributing editor to Rolling Stone magazine, wherein he wrote that “...human adaptation to heat can’t keep up with human-caused climate change.”

The last time the Earth was hotter than it is today was at least 125,000 years ago, long before anything that resembled human civilization appeared. (Time, Attachment Four)

The truth is, extreme heat is remaking our planet into one in which large swaths may become inhospitable to human life. One recent study projected that over the next fifty years, one to three billion people will be left outside the climate conditions that gave rise to civilization over the last six thousand years. Even if we transition fairly quickly to clean energy, half of the world’s human population will be exposed to life-threatening combinations of heat and humidity by 2100.

Animals, fish and insects are having to adapt to this new normal – some, like bees, are ailing to keep up, Research on chimpanzees by Jill Pruetz, and on other creatures like horses, camels and dogs highlights adaptative measures taken by humans, including bipedalism (walking on two legs) and sweating (and, in the case of dogs, panting).

GUK also solicited comments fro the UN secretary general, who told them that “climate change is out of control”. (Attachment Five)

“If we persist in delaying key measures that are needed, I think we are moving into a catastrophic situation, as the last two records in temperature demonstrates,” António Guterres said, referring to the world temperature records broken on Monday and Tuesday.

For the seven-day period ending Wednesday, the daily average temperature was .04C (.08F) higher than any week in 44 years of record-keeping, according to the University of Maine’s Climate Reanalyzer data.

In addition to heat, other elemental (Air, Fire, Earth and Water) factors are trending negatively

Some time ago, Disney released an animated feature (cartoon) set in a world “inhabited by anthropomorphic elements of nature” (Wiki summary). The story follows fire element Ember Lumen (Lewis) and water element Wade Ripple (Athie), who meet and fall in love after Wade is summoned by a plumbing accident at a convenience store. Also on hand are the cloddish “Clod” (Earth) and pink sports fan “Gale” (Air, or perhaps ‘heat” as opposed to “fire”).

A real-life version of “Elementals” might include...

Heat (Air)

Matthew Cappucci (New York Times 7/13, Attachment Seven) also sourced from the National Weather Service, which wrote: “Dangerous heat will result in a major to extreme risk for heat-related illnesses for much of the population, especially those who are heat sensitive and those without effective cooling and/or adequate hydration.”

But when excessive heat is reinforced by excess humidity, life-threatening conditions may occur. When dew points rise into the 70s, “every cubic meter of air will be holding roughly half a shot glass’s worth of moisture. The atmosphere, which will be closer to saturation, won’t be able to evaporate sweat off a person’s skin and allow evaporative cooling to regulate body temperature. As a result, heat stress will grow, and heat indexes of 105 to 112 degrees will be widespread. A few locations will feel like 115 degrees or worse.”

Elemental water has visited us in the floods deluging the Northeast, of course, but ocean temperatures are also reaching ‘downright shocking’ levels, according to Dan Stillman of the WashPost.

The extreme heat around Florida is further intensifying the state’s ongoing heat wave and could make hurricanes worse.

Much of Florida is seeing its warmest year on record, with temperatures running 3 to 5 degrees above normal. While some locations have been setting records since the beginning of the year, the hottest weather has come with an intense heat dome cooking the Sunshine State in recent weeks. That heat dome has made coastal waters extremely warm, including “downright shocking” temperatures of 92 to 96 degrees in the Florida Keys, meteorologist and journalist Bob Henson said Sunday in a tweet.

“That’s boiling for them! More typically it would be in the upper 80s,” tweeted Jeff Berardelli, chief meteorologist and climate specialist at WFLA-TV in Tampa.

Earth

Earthquakes, landsides

California homeowners in communities like the aptly named “Rolling Hills” are feeling the earth move under their feet... and houses are falling down, falling down. That’s a consequence of fire and rain... the former burning dry SoCal brush, then the latter rolling waves of mud down to the sea.

The earthquakes – they’re up in Alaska, and so far mostly without damage or fatalities. Yet. And airline passengers to the Old World are getting a visual treat – an Icelandic volcano. Also no casualties. Yet.

Fire

Wildfires Canada and Cal. and smoke

Canada saw more acreage burned this year by wildfires than any other year on record. A record-smashing heat wave this spring primed northern Canada for the fires that have burned more than 37,000 square miles of land so far, according to the Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Centre. Scientists are predicting wildfires to increase in North America as temperatures warm and make fire behavior more likely. A buildup of fuels from fire suppression and forest management practices is also contributing to the problem.

Canada’s wildfires have twice sent smoke pouring into the U.S. A Stanford University analysis found that it was the worst year of wildfire smoke exposure per U.S. resident since at least 2006, when the data was first available. More smoke is likely coming this summer.

Yes, this is a “summer of extremes.” (NBC, July 15^th, Attachment Nine) Extreme flooding. Extreme heat. Extreme smoke.

The images — a smoky Central Park in sepia, kayaks floating on the streets of Montpelier, Vermont, and packed cooling centers in Arizona — still provide a shock, even for those expecting them.

“All of this is entirely consistent with what greenhouse gas warming does and is in line with the trends we expect,” Ben Zaitchik, a professor in the Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences at Johns Hopkins University, said of the extreme events. “Still there’s something that feels surprising — emotionally surprising — when you see these things happening with increasing frequency and severity.”

On Monday, the average global temperature reached 17.01 degrees Celsius (62.62 Fahrenheit), the highest in the US National Centers for Environmental Prediction’s data, which goes back to 1979. On Tuesday, it climbed even further, reaching 17.18 degrees Celsius and global temperature remained at this record-high on Wednesday.

The previous record of 16.92 degrees Celsius was set in August 2016.

Elsewhere In America

The risk is also international, according to Cappucci (above) who added that the heat is not confined to the Lower 48 states. “Southern Europe is also in the early stages of a dangerous heat wave. Excessively high temperatures are forecast from Portugal and Spain through southern Italy and as far east as Romania and Bulgaria on Thursday and Friday.

“In Sicily and Sardinia, temperatures could approach 118 degrees (48 Celsius), challenging the highest levels ever observed in Europe, according to the European Space Agency. The heat will expand into Central Europe, including Germany and Poland, over the weekend and may linger over southern Europe for much of next week.”

The European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service confirmed that Monday’s and Tuesday’s global temperatures were also records in its data, which dates back to 1940. (CNN, Attachment Ten) This week’s records are probably the warmest in “at least 100,000 years,” Jennifer Francis, a senior scientist at Woodwell Climate Research Center, told CNN, calling the records “a huge thing.”

Around the world

Temperature records are also falling outside North America. The “Cerberus” heat wave gripped Europe on Friday, with temperatures in Greece expected to near 110 F. The European Space Agency warned that Europe’s all-time high temperature — of 120 F — could be topped next week. Heat likely contributed to more than 61,000 deaths in Europe last summer, a recent study found. New daily rainfall records were set in Japan’s Kyushu region earlier this week, according to the World Meteorological Organization.

It is very likely that the Earth’s global temperature reached a new modern-day record high, not just once, but on three consecutive days that broke or tied records. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), July 3, 4 and 5 all consecutively broke records as the Earth’s hottest day since scientists began recording in 1979.

On Tuesday, July 4, scientists recorded a global average of 62.9 degrees. This broke the previous record that had just been set the day prior of 62.6 on July 3. Before that, the highest recorded average temperature in history was 62.5 degrees as measured in August 2016.

What is driving this recent extreme spike in global temperatures? The answer in part. WTOL in Ohio broadcast (Attachment Eleven) “is tied to the developing El Niño conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean.

The Guardian UK agreed – with the United Nations’ World Meteorological Organization (WMO) warning that the last major El Niño was in 2016, which was the hottest year on record – until now – but added that, as Zeke Hausfather, a research scientist at Berkeley Earth, said: “Unfortunately, it promises to only be the first in a series of new records set this year as increasing emissions of [carbon dioxide] and greenhouse gases, coupled with a growing El Niño event, push temperatures to new highs” (July 4, Attachment Twelve)

After the historical high temps of Monday, July 3rd... the day after (GUK, Attachment Thirteen – arguably what most Brits would consider to have been the most unpleasant Fourth of July since 1776), the record was broken again, having lasted for all of twenty four hours (or a little bit less),

“World temperature records have been broken for a second day in a row, data suggests, as experts issued a warning that this year’s warmest days are still to come,” declared a sweaty GUKsman Damien Gayle – and with them “the warmest days ever recorded.”

Back in the colonies, the US National Centers for Environmental Prediction confirmed that the average global temperature reached 17.01C (62.62F), surpassing the August 2016 record of 16.92C (62.46F), as heatwaves sizzled around the world. (GUK, Attachment Fifteen)

True to its leftist and populist roots, howsoever withered in the heat, GUK solicited the view of Jeni Miller, executive director of the California-based Global Climate and Health Alliance (an international consortium of health organizations) who promptly responded that: “The extraction and use of coal, oil and gas harm people’s health, are the primary driver of warming and are incompatible with a healthy climate future. That’s all the more reason that governments must prepare to deliver a commitment at Cop28 to phase out all fossil fuels, and a just transition to renewable energy for all.”

And the climate scientist Friederike Otto of the Grantham Institute for Climate Change and the Environment at Britain’s Imperial College London, said: “It’s a death sentence for people and ecosystems.”

“El Niño hasn’t peaked yet and summer is still in full swing in the northern hemisphere, so it wouldn’t be surprising if the record were broken again in coming days or weeks,” said Dr Paulo Ceppi, a lecturer in climate science at the Grantham Institute, Imperial College London.

Dr Karsten Haustein, a research fellow in atmospheric radiation at Leipzig University, said: “The coming days will probably see a small downturn, but since the annual global temperature maximum is at the end of July, more days are likely to be warmer than yesterday (given that El Niño is now pretty much in full swing) …

“Chances are that the month of July will be the warmest ever, and with it the hottest month ever … ‘ever’ meaning since the Eemian, which is indeed some 120,000 years ago.”

And by last Friday, the hot, hot GUKsters could report that Phoenix, was experiencing day after day of consecutive 110+ highs (17 as of today, with the record being 18), compelling their Arizona correspondent, Gabrielle Canon to call it “hell on earth.”

Outdoor laborers in landscaping, city services and a delivery driver for Amazon shared their tips for survival (lots of water, Gatorade and cold towels). Health workers aiding the city’s most vulnerable during the city’s brutally hot months set up a booth at a sprawling homeless encampment to hand out cold water bottles, hygiene kits and other resources that, for those living on the streets, could potentially mean the difference between life and death.

A ways east, in Texas (where, as noted above, Governor Greg Abbott was taunting migrant children by refusing to provide water but, at least, cooling off some by directing the police and state authorities to throw them into the Rio Grande to swim back to Mexico or drown), Houston, roasting under the “heat dome” according to Time’s Jeffrey Kluger (July 12^th, Attachment Sixteen), topping 105ºF and “continuing a punishing trend that has already seen the city hit over 90°F on 46 days in 2023.”

Climate change is surely playing a role in the rise of such incinerating heat, Kluger noted, but it is no coincidence either that “the greatest suffering has been endured not in the outlying suburbs, exurbs, or countryside, but in city centers, characterized by what experts call urban heat islands.”

And how does God, or man, develop those islands?

“Strip away natural tree cover and other foliage; lay down asphalt parking lots and ribbons of highway; construct buildings tall enough to cut off natural wind flow—and you create urban ovens, which absorb heat during the day and slowly radiate it back out at night. Even after sundown, there is no relief to be found,” Kluger wrote, citing the numbers from the EPA holding that cities range from one to seven degrees hotter than the countryside during the day and two to five degrees hotter at night. “And that’s nothing compared to the differences within cities themselves, some parts of which are planted with tree cover and parkland, and others of which are denuded of green, and encased in asphalt and concrete,” he added.

“In some studies,” says Hunter Jones, program manager of the National Integrated Heat Health Information System at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), “we’re finding that different parts of the same city have temperature disparities of up to 20 degrees.”

As noted in Attachment Four (Time, above) centering upon the necessary evolutionary methods that humans and animals use to adapt and survive climate change, the eight years between 2015 and 2022 were the hottest on record. “In 2022, 850 million people lived in regions that experienced all-time high temperatures.”

Globally, killer heat waves are becoming longer, hotter, and more frequent. Just look at the events of this year: wildfire smoke from Canada turned the skies on the east coast an apocalyptic orange; sea ice in Antarctica hit a record low; all-time temperature records were shattered in Puerto Rico, Siberia, Southeast Asia, Mexico, and Texas. In the North Atlantic ocean, sea surface temperatures in late June are the highest ever recorded and, off the Florida coast, seawater turned bathwater hovers near 100°.

The UN secretary general said that “climate change is out of control”, afte an unofficial analysis of data showed that average world temperatures in the seven days to Wednesday were the hottest week on record (GUK, July 6^th, Attachment Eighteen).

Now one might think that the business community might be hostile of (or at least indifferent to) disclosures regarding the role of human-caused climate chane in the elemental four horsemen of apocalypse... air (heat), water (flooding), earth (landslides or desertification, leading to) fire (blazes in Canada, the U.S. and around the world... but, in fact, some are reassessing the impacts of obstructionism on their bottom lines.

There are the few boycotts hurled outwards by disgruntled greenies, of course, but much of the impetus for pivoting has been market driven.

“Extreme heat is hitting companies where it hurts,” contends Time’s JUSTIN WORLAND (JULY 13, attachment nineteen) “This is actually going to touch every sector,” Brian Deese, recently President Biden’s top economic advisor, told the author in 2020 when he was the global head of sustainable investing at Blackrock. “Those risks, while they do accelerate out into the future, are more pressing on the market today than most market participants understand.”

Phenomena like fires and floods may be the most obvious example of physical risk, but heat falls into the same bucket. Indeed, a 2021 Moody’s report identified heat stress as one of two physical risks that affect almost every sector... agriculture, manufacturing and the retailers depending upon the supply chain... travel, landscaping and maintenance – on and on and on.

Walmart, for example, says the company is vulnerable to rising costs of cooling its massive facilities; Disney says excessive heat may affect demand for its tourism products.

“Beyond the week-to-week, month-to-month impact of heat, it’s also important to consider the role businesses can play in avoiding the worst possible heat,” Worland concludes. “By cutting their own carbon emissions—and pushing a bigger societal shift toward a low-carbon economy—companies not only protect their own growth prospects but also the wellbeing of all of society.”

Many... both the climate change fighters and denialists alike... are looking to Big Science to lessen or obliterate the risk. There are the fossil fuel alternatives – wind, solar, even the riskier nuclear options

In the July 8^th Washington Post, Scott Dance notes that looking back into history can be as useful as looking forward into snazzy new innovations (Attachment Twenty).

“If any a single day in the past 100,000 or 125,000 years could have been as hot as the Earth this week,” opined Mister Dance, “scientists said it could only have occurred about 6,000 years ago. At that time, the planet had warmed with the end of the last ice age, and a period of global cooling began that would continue until the Industrial Revolution.”

It’s possible that, even though average temperatures were probably similar to current conditions, 6,000 years ago (which, believers assert, represented the creation of the earth, with all its life and tribulations in 4004 BC, according to Bishop Ussher), day-to-day extremes could have been greater because the planet was so much closer to the sun during the Northern Hemisphere summer, interviewee Peter Thorne, a professor at Maynooth University in Ireland, says. That makes some paleoclimatologists reluctant to say for sure that this week produced the hottest single days in more than 100,000 years.

That conclusion is “certainly plausible,” said Michael Mann, a professor at the University of Pennsylvania known as a pioneer in studying historical climate data. But technically, without 120,000 years of daily temperature data, it becomes “a plausibility argument, rather than a definitive statement,” Mann wrote in an email.

The Post’s Dance determined, after consulting other scientific sorts, that there is no evidence anywhere in scientists’ understanding of Earth’s history of warming that occurred nearly as rapidly as the ongoing spike in temperatures, caused by the burning of fossil fuels and emissions of greenhouse gases.

If a hotter day happened on Earth anytime in the past, concluded Richard Alley, a geosciences professor at Pennsylvania State University, it had to have been the result of natural processes... a meteor, perhaps, wildfires or perhaps a volcano.

“The current rise is not natural, but caused by us,” he said.

The WashPost’s Stillman (Attachment Eight) has offered a number of suggestions... not necessarily to combat climate change but to survive it, for a while. These include using the WashPost tracker to analyze heat risks before deciding whether to do that outside work, or cocoon with the air conditioner blowing (if you have an air conditioner) in your nice, safe home (if you have a home).

And read up on and maybe understand (if you can’t do anything) about the link between weather disasters and climate change, and how leaders in the U.S. and Europe are responding to heat.

Big, well funded institutions are scrutinizing the problem in search of solutions, groups like U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) which, on July 13^th, maintained that there was only a 20% chance that 2023 would be the hottest year on record... the bad news being that next year, 2024, is the more likely. (Time/AP, Attachment Twenty One)

With an election too!

Scientists such as Brown University’s Kim Cobb are predicting a “photo finish” with 2016 and 2020 for the hottest year on record. Berkeley Earth’s Robert Rohde said his group figures there’s an 80% chance that 2023 will end up the hottest year on record.

NOAA global analysis chief Russ Vose said the record hot June is because of two main reasons: long-term warming caused by heat-trapping gases spewed by the burning of coal, oil and natural gas that’s then boosted by a natural El Nino, which warms parts of the Pacific and changes weather worldwide adding extra heat to already rising global temperatures. He said it’s likely most of June’s warming is due to long-term human causes because so far this new El Nino is still considered weak to moderate. It’s forecast to peak in the winter, which is why NOAA and other forecasters predict 2024 to be even hotter than this year.

“Back in 1998, the world had a super El Nino event with record global temperatures,” said climate scientist Zeke Hausfather of Berkeley Earth and the tech company Stripe; today the temperatures of 1998 would be an unusually cool year.

The conclusion of Big Science is direct and merciless.

“Until we stop burning fossil fuels, this will only get worse,” Climate scientist Friederike Otto of the Imperial College of London said in an email. “Heat records will keep getting broken, people and ecosystems are already in many cases beyond what they are able to deal with.”

Big Oil has answers, too, and so do Big Politicians. We’ll take a look at those next week (unless, of course, Donald Trump is raptured off to jail or the film, television and streaming strike is settled), Or something explodes.

Our Lesson: July Tenth through Sixteenth, 2023

Monday, July 10, 2023

Dow: 33,994.28

Climate change manifests now: not in 50, 30 or even 20 years but now. There’s extreme heat in the American West and across the south to Miami (108°) and “thousand year” flooding in the East – roads washed out and people (including rescue teams) swept away near West Point, NY, while Vermont floats (and DeSantis gloats) – most of Montpelier is underwater. And from the plains to Great Lakes... tornadoes.

President Joe in London discusses climate change with King Charles and approves cluster bombs for President Zelenskyy over the objections of British, German and other humanitarians. They’ll talk it over in Lithuania tomorrow, as well as Turkey’s pivot not to block Sweden from joining. Ukraine? We’ll see.

Cetologists dispute whether killer whales are intent on killing humans... proponents of revenge theory pointing to Gladys the Orca training them to ram boats and bite people while denialists say that the attacks are just a “fad”, playing the boates and humans like toys the way they wear dead salmon as “hats”.

Tuesday, July11, 2023

Dow: 34,261.42

Biden answers Zelenskyy on NATO membership... “hell, no”. Not while there’s a war going on; it would require American and other militaries to blunder in and start WW3, which outcome the Z-Man calls “absurd”, He also faces accusations that the Turks were “bribed” to admit Sweden – inasmuch as a lot of American F-15s are headed to Ankara and Istanbul. SecState Blinken pipes up, saying the Wagner revolt created “cracks in Putin’s armor.”

Houses in Rolling Hills, CA are rolling into the ocean as landslides bedevil the coast... in the interior, Phoenix hits 117° and Death Valley 130°. The rain in the northeast moves offshore, but more storms are expected this week, more flooding.

Over the vocal opposition of Tate/LoBianco relatives and interested onlookers, Manson cult girl Leslie van Houten is paroled after 53 years in lockup. She will reportedly spend another year in a “transitional facility while publishers and producers slaver over her story while Brittany Spears is wrapping up her tell-all book (no helter skelter, but lotsa skeletons). Also free to roam the earth is the Boston killer lawyer, out on bail and terrifying his victims. Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-Al) commits thoughtcrime, saying white supremecists are just “Americans, then walks it back after GOP heavies protest.

Wednesday, July 12, 2023

Dow: 34,347.43

The storms and the flooding return to the Northeast where New York and New England are drenched and the weatherpeople in Vermont say the rains will continue for seven days and nights (not 40, but bad enough). The torrid zone across the South grows torrid-er with record temperatures from Arizona to Texas to Miami while Chicago is buffeted with ten tornadoes.

The good news for Don Jones is that it’s Amazon Prime time and bargains are everywhere. Inflation is down to 3.1% predicted (3.0% in late updates) as opposed to 4% in May and 9% last year. Airline fares are down 19%, gas 26% and used car prices dropping too. Also, housing prices are falling, but greedy landlords keep raising rents up and up and up while minimum wages stagnate and homelessness proliferates.

Summer’s heat doesn’t deter the criminals... DC rajammer mows down pedestrians strolling near the White House during police chase for expired license plate, impatient patient kills surgeon in Memphis, souljackers collect two in Birmingham and a man is shot dead at a Georgia Highway Welcome Station. The white collar scammers are busy too collecting fake plague subsidies with the authorities repeating that they are “shocked, shocked!” and vowing action – someday.

Thursday, July 13, 2023

Dow: 34,395.14

SAG/AFTRA actors join the writers on strike – the first twofer since 1960 when the union rep was... Ronald Reagan. (Now it’s Fran... “the Nanny”... Drescher throwing her voice at the suits – but Disney’s Bob Iger says he won’t settle because the writers and performers don’t deserve to share in the new streaming revenue and, besides, can be replaced by AI simulations. Get ready for months of reruns, reality shows and gloomy foreign films at the multiplex.

On their eve of destruction, the Emmys reveal their nominations and Succession tops the heap with 26. The Espys (Emmies for athletes) honors go to Mikaela Shiffrinand Patrick Mahomes and heart attack survivor Damar Hamlin presents awards to the medical team for the Buffalo Bills who revived him.

Spiderman (Tom Holland) goes into rehab for alcoholism... his webs were jagged and asymmetrical and didn’t catch flies. But a cute little fisherboy goes viral catching his first fish, and a man in Tennessee lands a 122 lb. catfish.

The Food Police open an investigation into whether Diet Coke causes cancer and also allege that Prime Energy Drinks contain as much caffeine as six cups of coffee. More investigators ask whether taking o-O-Oh Zempic causes the takers to commit suicide.

And the coffin lid clangs shut on Anchor Steam Beer... synonymus with San Francisco for 120 years. The coroners say the new, gentrified San Franciscans who kicked out the natives are rich and snobby and would rather drink vintage wines. Mike Lindell’s “My Pillow” is also on the ropes, with losses of $100 million that he blames on the “cancel culture”.

Friday, July 14, 2023

Dow: 33,734.88

It’s Golden Retriever Day. And summer’s dog days are upon America... but with some intense supplements:

The Heat Dome persists over the West, but slowly moves east. Temperature in Phoenix are over 110° for the fifteenth straight day. Flood warnings in the Northeast especially from West Point, NY up to Vermont. And Florida is getting heat and water, ocean temperatures approaching 100° from Miami south to the Keys.

The e-con-me is improving as regards inflation and there is still a tight job market, but mortgage rates have risen to 7% or more, up from 5.5% in 2022. And it’s hard for working mothers to find childcare with so many caregivers quitting due to the low, low pay. One growth industry – crime. Credit card skimmers are working the WalMarts but the DOJ is hauling more and more crypto crooks off to jail.

Saturday, July 15th, 2023

Dow: (Closed)

Hard to believe, but the 2024 election is already underway and Ioea’s first debate is just a few weeks off. But there will be problems – Djonald UnBrave choosing to skip the debate because he is mad at Hawkeye Gov. Kim Reynolds - who did not endorse him (or anybody). Another factor is the draft financial reports starting to come in that show several candidates failing to collect the minimum money to appear onstage – these including never-Trumpers Chris Christie and Asa Hutchinson, but also Mike Pence. Rising in polls and money is vivek Ramaswamy, working the religious far-right base by saying we should stop subsidizing those terrible Ukrainians and support Glad Vlad.

Crime and punishment are in the news, if not the politicians’ press releases and tweets (or threads, as it may be) and its not just ghetto youth with guns. Rex Heuerman, the sex-killer architect out on Gilgo Beach. is finally nabbed (for a good Gilfo read see here) and the Boston rapist/lawyer is headed off to his date with justice. The fugitives are finally collared... a California killer quickly and the Pennylvania escapee done in by barking dogs (Huerman was caught due to DNA on a pizza crust). And a carjacker turned mass shooter in the suburbs of Atlana kills four, wounds more (including three policemen) and is finally gunned down. RIH!

RIP to MLK’s last surviving sister, Christine... herself a civil rights activist. And Jesse Jackson will finally retire from leadership of PUSH, citing age and health.

Sunday, July 16th, 2023

Dow: (Closed)

It’s the 58^th anniversary of Disneyland and Gov. DeSantis (R-Fl) reportedly sent Bob Iger and the gang some of that white, White House mystery powder. Skeptics wonder – does that mean he supports the striking writers and actors who are themselves an attraction to the gawkers who stand and gawk – hoping to catch a glimpse of Meryl Streep.

Pols and pollsters hit the Sunday talkshows. The latest show that 70% of the voters hate Biden, 60% hate Trump and 44% would vote for a third party candidate if one manifests.

Add to air (heat) and water (floods) a little fire (California hills burning add to Canadian smoke) and earth (large but harmless Alaska quake and Icelandic volcano.

Hot, tired Don up only a fraction of a fraction, but it’s still enough to push it back over the original 15,000 base. Anomalies persist in our import/export data. Fortunately, they are not so volatile as noted last week... a small correction in our import data led to a slight increase in the DJI. Otherwise, inflation continues to plague Don Jones, although it is not so severe as was a year ago... still, it now seems that the Fed will raise interest rates again, inhibiting home, auto and other large purchases on credit.

THE DON JONES INDEX

CHART of CATEGORIES w/VALUE ADDED to EQUAL BASELINE of 15,000

(REFLECTING… approximately… DOW JONES INDEX of June 27, 2013)

See a further explanation of categories here…

ECONOMIC INDICES (60%)

CATEGORY	VALUE	BASE	RESULTS			SCORE		OUR SOURCES and COMMENTS
INCOME	(24%)	6/17/13 & 1/1/22	LAST	CHANGE	NEXT	LAST WEEK	THIS WEEK
Wages (hrly. Per cap)	9%	1350 points	6/19/23	+0.28%	8/23	1,444.97	1,444.97	https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/wages 2 8.83
Median Inc. (yearly)	4%	600	7/3/23	+0.031%	7/24/23	609.14	609.33	http://www.usdebtclock.org/ 35,931
Unempl. (BLS – in mi)	4%	600	5/8/23	- 2.78%	8/23	633.65	633.65	http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000000/ 3.7 3.6
Official (DC – in mi)	2%	300	7/3/23	+0.049%	7/24/23	257.75	257.62	http://www.usdebtclock.org/ 6,176 178 181
Unofficl. (DC – in mi)	2%	300	7/3/23	- 0.067%	7/24/23	306.75	306.96	http://www.usdebtclock.org/ 10,455 449 442
Workforce Particip. Number Percent	2%	300	7/3/23	+0.033%+0.016%	7/24/23	304.27	304.32	In 162,344 385 438 Out 100,068 075 084 Total: 262,412 460 522 http://www.usdebtclock.org/ 61.866
WP % (ycharts)*	1%	150	2/27/23	nc (3 mos.)	5/23	151.19	151.19	https://ycharts.com/indicators/labor_force_participation_rate 62.60 nc

OUTGO	15%	Biggest jump: used cars
Total Inflation	7%	1050	5/22/23	+0.2%	8/23	990.91	988.93	http://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm +0.1 .2
Food	2%	300	5/22/23	+0.1%	8/23	278.22	277.94	http://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm +0.2 .1
Gasoline	2%	300	5/22/23	+1.0%	8/23	260.59	257.98	http://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm -5.6 +1.0
Medical Costs	2%	300	5/22/23	nc	8/23	296.97	296.97	http://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm -0.1 nc
Shelter	2%	300	5/22/23	+0.4%	8/23	276.58	275.47	http://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm +0.6 0.4
WEALTH	6%
*Dow* Jones Index	2%	300	7/3/23	+2.59%	7/24/23	275.61	282.75	https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/ 34,609.33
Home (Sales) (Valuation)	1% 1%	150 150	5/1/23	-3.60% +2.59%	7/23	134.58 290.74	134.58 290.74	https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics Sales (M): 4.30 Valuations (K): 396.1
Debt (Personal)	2%	300	7/3/23	+0.045%	7/24/23	276.84	276.72	http://www.usdebtclock.org/ 73,563 596

NATIONAL	(10%)
Revenue (trilns.)	2%	300	7/3/23	+0.06%	7/24/23	394.05	394.29	debtclock.org/ 4,699 701 704
Expenditures (tr.)	2%	300	7/3/23	+0.11%	7/24/23	330.63	330.26	debtclock.org/ 6,212 217 224
National Debt tr.)	3%	450	7/3/23	+0.24%	7/24/23	415.58	414.60	http://www.usdebtclock.org/ 32,327 475 552 *(The debt ceiling... now kicked forward to 1/1/25... had* been 31.4)**
Aggregate Debt (tr.)	3%	450	7/3/23	+0.19%	7/24/23	398.74	397.98	http://www.usdebtclock.org/ 100,915 1,060 1,252

GLOBAL	(5%)
Foreign Debt (tr.)	2%	300	7/3/23	+0.069%	7/24/23	345.44	345.48	http://www.usdebtclock.org/ 7,253 249 244
Exports (in billions)	1%	150	5/22/23	-0.76%	8/23	153.48	153.48	https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/current/index.html 249.0 247.1
Imports (bl.)	1%	150	5/22/23	+0.315%	8/23	171.72	172.26	https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/current/index.html 343.5* 317.1*
Trade Deficit (bl.)	1%	150	5/22/23	+8.12% 37.1	8/23	287.16	287.16	https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/current/index.html 74.6 69.0

SOCIAL INDICES (40%)
ACTS of MAN	12%
World Affairs	3%	450	7/3/23	+0.3%	7/24/23	453.07	454.43	NATO summit ends with promises for Ukraine, but Sweden is allowed into the club (see last week’s DJI). Not discussed - all time record Euro- and Asiatic heat deadliest in Italy and SoKo. McDonald’s in Indonesia holding wedding feasts (if Djonald UnHitched dumps Melania and finds a new bride). BBC newscaster Huw Edwards shamed for child porn.
Terrorism	2%	300	7/3/23	nc	7/24/23	291.02	291.02	NoKo makes the usual “Pay attention to Me!” threats, fires off the usual missiles into the ocean, kills the usual fish. A traitorous (or stupid) American soldier crosses the border and is apprehended... good luck on a prisoner swap!
Politics	3%	450	7/3/23	-0.2%	7/24/23	481.46	480.50	Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-Al) praises white supremecists, then blocks military funding to bash the coloreds, abortioners and the gays... inviting Xi and Putin to come in, take over... would’ve been dangerous if not so stupid. FBI’s Wray says bedrooms, bathrooms and ballrooms not OK for hiding documents...Trump indict-o-rama moves to Georgia where his failed electoral fixing is investigated. The Donald also says he’ll boycott first Iowa debete in August because the Governor didn’t endorse him. Waaah! Secret Services closes White House cocaine case, Hunter off the hook.
Economics	3%	450	7/3/23	+0.2%	7/24/23	428.76	429.62	Inflation down from 4 to 3% with travel (airfares, gas, used cars) getting cheaper but Fed ponders raising interest rates anyway as greedy landlords keep raising rents and spiking homelessness. State rankers rank NC #1 for business. Judge approves MicroSoft gobbling of Activision. Bye bye Buy Buy Baby (but a scavenger does buy the name, if not the stores) and Anchor Steam Beer.
Crime	1%	150	7/3/23	-0.3%	7/24/23	254.28	253.52	Man shot dead at Georgia Welcome Station. Deadly driver rams 3, kills one near the White House. Patient kills Memphis surgeon during exam. Crazy men shoots two firefighters in Birmingham and kill four in Atlanta before shootout with cops (2 shot), other gunslingers shoot two more cops in Fargo. Police and game wardens warring on drunken boaters. Gymnastic perv Larry Nassar stabbed in prison (Yay!), survives (Boo!). More rowdy fans throwing stuff (skittles, cellphones) at concert artists like Bebe Rexha, Harry Styles and Drake. Influencers ask whatever happened to throwing underwear?
ACTS of GOD	(6%)
Environment/Weather	3%	450	7/3/23	-0.2%	7/24/23	405.94	405.13	Same script: record Western heat, Eastern flooding, Midwest tornadoes. TV weatherpeople say it will go on all summer... blamers blame the Heat Dome, El Nino or Don Jones’ appetite for fossil fuels. And the smoke from Canadian wildfires is back, too. Swimmers enjoy triple digit water temperatures in Florida Keys (or don’t),
Disasters	3%	450	7/3/23	-0.2%	7/24/23	435.91	435.04	Six die in tourist copter crash on Mt. Everest. 300 migrants shipwrecked off the Canary Islands. Woman killed after rear ending a manure spreader. 7+ quake in Alaska and picturesque volcano in Iceland - nobody hurt or killed.
LIFESTYLE/JUSTICE INDEX			(15%)
Science, Tech, Educ.	4%	600	7/3/23	+0.2%	7/24/23	630.98	632.24	Scientists invent “cool pavement” that lessens burns on the feet of dogs. Chinese hackers Storm #558 is stealing your emails and Chipotle is testing AI tortilla chip and guacamole makers. More American cryptocrooks hauled off to jail and President Joe uses loophole to cancel some student debt (generating scams).
Equality (econ/social)	4%	600	7/3/23	-0.1%	7/24/23	617.32	616.70	Striking actors say most non-celebrities have to work second jobs and studio CEOs could take pay cuts, leading Disney’s Bob Iger to defend replacing them with AI faces and voices in a “post-truth world.” Low pay and high disrespect causing many child care workers to quit, leading to crises for working moms.
Health	4%	600	7/3/23	+0.2%	7/24/23	470.15	471.09	FDA probes Logan Paul energy drinks with 600% caffeine of one cup coffee, regulators target toxic Diet Coke (but approve OTC contraception) and too much o-O-O Ozempic is linked to suicides.
Freedom and Justice	3%	450	7/3/23	+0.1%	7/24/23	470.11	470.58	Bank of America fined $250M for its “junk fees”. Mansonista Leslie van Houten paroled to “transitional facility” – Tate/LoBianca survivors outraged as are terrified victims of Boston rape/lawyer who gets sweetheard bail deal. SCOTUS throws out plea for reparations by three centenarian descendants of victims in 1921 Tulsa race riots.
MISCELLANEOUS and TRANSIENT INDEX					(7%)
Cultural incidents	3%	450	7/3/23	+0.2%	7/24/23	499.29	500.29	Marketa Vondrousova and Carlos Alcaraz win at Wimbledon. Espy trophies go to Mikaela Schiffrin and Patrick Mahomes with revived footballer Damar Hamlin presenting award to the Buffalo Bills’ medical staff. Emmy nominations out: “Succession” leads with 27. Striking writers and actors draw crowds looking for celebrity selfies. Producers will produce a Willy Wonka sequel (if they can), Rassler “The Undertaker” tombstones a shark menacing his wife, Kevin Costner getting angry divorce, “Spiderman” Tom Holland in rehab for alcoholism that made him spin unnatural webs, heatstroke onstage fells Jason Aldean in Hartford, CT, Brittany Spears will write a tell-all book. Jury settles Aretha Frankin’s will . RIP Dr. Christina King-Farris (MLK’s sister) author Milan “Unbearable Lightness” Kundera, soap opera queen Andrea Ewing (“One Life to Live”), sexy singer Jane (”Je Taime)” Birkin.
Misc. incidents	4%	450	7/3/23	+0.4%	7/24/23	481.87	483.80	Animals attack... and are attacked. Man catches giant catfish. Wild hog pursues golfers in Florida. Nice animal news includes reunion of some of the 4,000 beagles rescued from medical lab on their first anniversary of freedom. No freedom for escaped llama, captured by police. And, for the humans, a 988 Suicide prevention hotline debuts.

The Don Jones Index for the week of July 10^th through July 16^th, 2023 was UP 4.80 points

The Don Jones Index is sponsored by the Coalition for a New Consensus: retired Congressman and Independent Presidential candidate Jack “Catfish” Parnell, Chairman; Brian Doohan, Administrator. The CNC denies, emphatically, allegations that the organization, as well as any of its officers (including former Congressman Parnell, environmentalist/America-Firster Austin Tillerman and cosmetics CEO Rayna Finch) and references to Parnell’s works, “Entropy and Renaissance” and “The Coming Kill-Off” are fictitious or, at best, mere pawns in the web-serial “Black Helicopters” – and promise swift, effective legal action against parties promulgating this and/or other such slanders.

Comments, complaints, donations (especially SUPERPAC donations) always welcome at feedme@generisis.com or: speak@donjonesindex.com.

ATTACHMENT ONE – From the Guardian U.K.

HOUSTON, TEXAS HAS JUST CONFIRMED ITS FIRST HEAT-RELATED DEATH.

In nearby Pearland, Texas, Felipe Pascaul, 46, also died from the heat on 16 June. Pascaul was pouring concrete on a construction job site when he went into cardiac arrest and collapsed. He was taken to a hospital but did not survive.

The news comes after Texas governor Greg Abbott approved a law in June that eliminated water breaks for construction workers mandated by cities and counties in the state.

The state has seen 14 heat-related deaths this year as of June. Last year, 306 people died in connection to the dangerously high temperatures in Texas.

Texas’s most populous city and the fourth most populous city in the US, Houston is one of many around the country, particularly in the southwest, placed on a heat advisory.

ATTACHMENT TWO – From the Washington Post

EXTREME HEAT WAVE BOUND FOR PHOENIX AND SOUTHWEST COULD BE WORST EVER

It’s already hot and set to get much worse. Numerous heat records are at risk next week and probably beyond.

By Ian Livingston Updated July 7, 2023 at 1:46 p.m. EDT|Published July 7, 2023 at 12:55 p.m. EDT

The Southwest United States is about to endure a heat wave that could rank among its worst in history — both for its intensity and longevity.

The heat wave will affect much of Arizona and New Mexico and build into interior California, probably peaking during the second half of next week. The National Weather Service office in Phoenix says it will “rival some of the worst heat waves this area has ever seen.”

While it’s already excessively hot in the region, it will get significantly worse next week, and it’s unclear when the heat will ease. Computer models that project the weather 16 days into the future “do not show an end to this heat wave,” the Weather Service wrote in a discussion. “This should go down as one of the longest, if not the longest duration heat wave.”

While summer started off tame in the region (Las Vegas didn’t hit 100 until June 30, ending a record streak of not hitting the century mark), the heat began to ramp up quickly in recent days. In Phoenix, it was 115 degrees on Thursday, following 116 on the Fourth of July. The temperature in Death Valley, Calif., soared as high as 126 in the past week.

An excessive heat warning is in place through at least July 13 for much of south-central Arizona, including Phoenix and Tucson. In addition to a week or more of days with extreme heat, temperatures won’t drop too far at night, offering little relief and posing a health risk for those without access to air conditioning.

“Very dangerous to potentially life-threatening heat conditions are expected through next week and it is very essential that all the necessary heat precautions be taken to avoid any heat-related illnesses,” the Weather Service wrote.

It’s not just the heat. Unusually low humidity for July across the region is mixing with high temperatures, exacerbating a wildfire risk by drying out the land surface. Red-flag warnings for high fire danger are posted for northern Arizona and the Four Corners region out of concern for the potential of fast-moving blazes, several of which are already scorching land.

Record-crushing heat is blasting Florida, with no clear end

Where and when the heat will be worst

Tucson, Phoenix and Mesa in Arizona are among the hottest cities in the Lower 48 states, according to The Washington Post’s heat tracker

, because of their triple-digit high temperatures.

In Phoenix, every day for the foreseeable future should reach at least 110 degrees.

The forecast for Phoenix is hot, hot, hot. (National Weather Service)

The worst of the heat will probably occur during the second half of next week in Phoenix.

“From next Tuesday through the rest of the week, temperatures across the region may be some of the hottest we have ever seen,” the Weather Service wrote.

Phoenix has witnessed three days in history of 120 degrees or higher, with its hottest day coming in June 1990 when it hit 122 degrees. The forecast there goes as high as 117 degrees Wednesday, but the Weather Service cautioned that computer models show the possibility of 120-degree temperatures in the area.

To the north, “temperatures in Las Vegas may reach 110 degrees by the middle of the week, and 120 degrees in Death Valley,” wrote the Weather Service office in Las Vegas. And it could get hotter after that.

Temperatures of 110 to 120 degrees are also slated to be common across Southern California’s deserts into next week, along with 100 to 105 in the Central Valley. Similar levels of debilitating heat are forecast to extend eastward across the southern half of New Mexico and into adjacent parts of northern Mexico.

In the very high terrain of the Sierra Nevada, the hot weather is melting the remnants of a record-setting winter snowpack, triggering localized flooding that is expected to continue.

The heat in the region is being intensified by a delayed start to monsoon season, which runs from June 15 to Sept. 30 on average. Often, monsoons draw moisture and bring clouds and storms into the Southwest, putting a cap on temperatures by mid-July.

Where records could occur

NWS HeatRisk Prototype shows widespread major or extreme threat from heat next Thursday. (National Weather Service)

Numerous records for high temperatures and streaks of hot weather could be set over the next two weeks.

Phoenix has hit at least 110 degrees seven days in a row and could approach the record of 18 days set in June 1974.

Other numbers to watch include:

· Tucson may test calendar day record highs almost daily over the coming period, nearing 110 degrees by the middle of next week.

· Phoenix could challenge its calendar day record high Wednesday. Its high is forecast to be 117. The record of 116 degrees was set in 2020. Overnight lows near and above 90 degrees may also set records for warmest nights, especially next week.

· Death Valley is forecast to breach 120 degrees by Wednesday and head higher after that. It hit 126 degrees on July 2.

· Imperial, Calif., near the Mexico border, is forecast to reach 117 degrees by Wednesday, potentially beginning a streak of daily records there.

Records may become much more numerous by the second half of next week, when the heat is expected to peak in coverage and intensity. Record-challenging heat could threaten a sprawling region from near Los Angeles to Albuquerque by July 13.

Scientists say to brace for more extreme weather and possibly a record-warm 2023 amid unprecedented temperatures. (Video: The Washington Post)

How long

There’s no clear end in sight to this heat wave. The heat dome, set to expand and strengthen over the region, may persist beyond the limits of current forecasts.

How long this heat wave lasts may ultimately depend on whether monsoon season kicks in, but forecasters expect a near- to below-average monsoon season after a very active one last year.

The hottest time of year in Arizona is often late June into early July, highlighted in the graph below of cumulative days at or above 105 degrees in Phoenix. Deeper into July, and more noticeably by August, clouds and rain generated by monsoons tend to reduce the heat but increase humidity.

Cumulative days reaching 105 or higher across Phoenix modern records. (Ian Livingston/The Washington Post)

Because of monsoon season, Phoenix typically has seen its hottest weather by mid-July. Of the 19 days on record with highs of at least 118 degrees, only four came after that. The caveat, of course, is that historical norms don’t necessarily apply in our rapidly warming climate.

Jason Samenow contributed to this report.

ATTACHMENT THREE – From GUK

BIG OIL QUIETLY WALKS BACK ON CLIMATE PLEDGES AS GLOBAL HEAT RECORDS TUMBLE

Energy firms have made record profits by increasing production of oil and gas, far from their promises of rolling back emissions

By Dharna Noor Sun 16 Jul 2023 06.00 EDT

It was probably the Earth’s hottest week in history earlier this month, following the warmest June on record, and top scientists agree that the planet will get even hotter unless we phase out fossil fuels.

Yet leading energy companies are intent on pushing the world in the opposite direction, expanding fossil fuel production and insisting that there is no alternative. It is evidence that they are motivated not by record warming, but by record profits, experts say.

Amid record-shattering warmth this February, BP scaled back an earlier goal of lowering its emissions by 35% by 2030, saying it will aim for a 20 to 30% cut instead. ExxonMobil quietly withdrew funding for a heavily publicized effort to use algae to create low-carbon fuel. And Shell announced that it would not increase its investments in renewable energy this year, despite earlier promises to dramatically slash its emissions.

Climate-fueled extreme weather persisted through spring and summer. But fossil fuel companies have only doubled down on their oil- and gas-filled business models. Shell promised to cut oil production by 20% by 2030, but then this year said it already met that goal by selling off some operations to another oil company –thereby not reducing emissions in the atmosphere. BP has also expanded gas drilling. And Exxon’s CEO, Darren Woods, told an industry conference last month that his company plans to double the amount of oil produced from its US shale holdings within the next five years.

But Dan Cohn, global energy transition researcher at the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, said that the oil industry’s climate plans should not be taken at “face value”.

“They have left no doubt that their pledges were deployed for cynical political purposes, only to be ditched when they no longer suited the industry’s strategic position,” he said.

That strategic position was to avoid being governed, said Timmons Roberts, professor of environment and sociology at Brown University.

“The climate commitments … were almost certainly made to give the impression that they don’t need to be regulated because their voluntary pledges are adequate,” he said.

He said climate pledges became popular while fossil fuels were becoming less profitable years ago, but since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, gas prices have risen – in fact, fossil fuel companies saw record profits last year.

The fossil fuel industry has massively profited from selling a dangerous product and now innocent people and governments across the globe are paying the price for their recklessness

“It became clear that they’re motivated by profits,” said Roberts, adding that the drive is unsurprising, since CEOs of public companies can be removed if they do not maximize profit growth.

Fossil fuel executives sometimes suggest that fossil fuel expansion is necessary. Last Thursday – just after Earth broke an unofficial record for its hottest day ever for the third day in a row – the TotalEnergies CEO, Patrick Pouyanne, told CNBC that his company will continue to pour the majority of its investments into fossil fuels.

“Today, our society requires oil and gas,” he said. “There is no way to think that overnight we can just eliminate all that.”

Pouyanne is not alone. In an interview published the same day, Wael Sawan, CEO of Shell, said curbing oil and gas production would be “dangerous and irresponsible”.

But though “nobody expects fossil fuel demand to disappear overnight”, Cohn said, there is ample evidence that we can transition away from them over the coming years – and indeed, that we must if we are to secure a livable climate.

Roberts said these comments exemplify the “discourses of climate delay” that the fossil fuel industry employs to intentionally push off climate action and that were documented in a 2020 study on the topic which he co-authored. In preparing their climate plans, oil companies relied heavily on the discourse of “fossil fuel solutionism” – or claiming they had the solutions to slow warming. But now that the transition seems less immediately profitable, they are employing other tactics, such as “change is impossible”, which the 2020 paper defines as “a discourse that reifies the current state of things and denies the ability of societies to organize large socio-economic transformations”.

No matter what strategy they employ at any given time, the industry has “done everything they can to block climate action and keep us dependent on their products”, said Oreskes.

To foster a real energy transition, said Roberts, leaders must stop believing that energy companies will voluntarily change their business models. He likened politicians’ behavior to the gag in the Peanuts comic, wherein Charlie Brown repeatedly attempts to kick a football held up by Lucy, even though she always pulls it away and lets him fall over.

“The oil companies keep holding up the football,” he said. “Are we gonna ask them hold it again for us? I don’t think we should.”

ATTACHMENT FOUR – From Time

HUMAN ADAPTATION TO HEAT CAN’T KEEP UP WITH HUMAN-CAUSED CLIMATE CHANGE

BY JEFF GOODELL JULY 6, 2023 3:48 PM EDT

Goodell, a contributor to Rolling Stone and a NYT bestselling nonfiction writer, is the author of the new book The Heat Will Kill You First: Life and Death on a Scorched Planet

The last time the Earth was hotter than it is today was at least 125,000 years ago, long before anything that resembled human civilization appeared. Since 1970, the Earth’s temperature has spiked faster than in any comparable forty-year period in recorded history. The eight years between 2015 and 2022 were the hottest on record. In 2022, 850 million people lived in regions that experienced all-time high temperatures. Globally, killer heat waves are becoming longer, hotter, and more frequent. One study found that a heat wave like the one that cooked the Pacific Northwest in 2021 is 150 times more likely today than it was before we began the atmosphere with CO2 at the beginning of the industrial age.

Just look at the events of this year: wildfire smoke from Canada turned the skies on the east coast an apocalyptic orange; sea ice in Antarctica hit a record low; all-time temperature records were shattered in Puerto Rico, Siberia, Southeast Asia, Mexico, and Texas (I live in Austin, where, as I write this in late June, it’s 106 degrees F). In the North Atlantic ocean, sea surface temperatures in late June are the highest ever recorded.

Life on Earth is like a finely calibrated machine, one that has been built by evolution to work very well within its design parameters. Heat breaks that machine in a fundamental way, disrupting how cells function, how proteins unfold, how molecules move. Yes, some organisms can thrive in higher temperatures than others. Roadrunners do better than blue jays. Silver Saharan ants can run across superhot desert sands that would kill other insects instantly. Microbes live in 170-degree hot springs in Yellowstone National Park. A thirty-year-old triathlete can handle a 110-degree day better than a seventy-year-old man with heart disease. And yes, we humans are remarkable creatures with a tremendous capacity to adapt and adjust to a rapidly changing world.

But to understand the dangers of extreme heat today, it helps to understand how we have lived with heat in the past. Among other things, we evolved clever ways to manage the heating and cooling of our bodies that gave our ancestors an evolutionary edge over competitors. To tell you about it, though, I have to go way back, because you can’t separate heat from the beginning of things.

Fourteen billion years ago, the universe was compressed into a stupendously hot, incredibly dense nugget, which then rapidly expanded. This nugget cooled as it swelled; its particles gradually slowed their frenzied motion and aggregated into clumps, which over time formed stars, planets — and us. How exactly life emerged out of the hot mess of the universe is only dimly understood. The most widely accepted theory is that life began around the volcanoes that rose above the ocean shortly after the earth formed, probably within the first hundred million years. The volcanoes were surrounded by hot geyser‑fed ponds and bubbling hot springs, which were loaded with organic compounds from the asteroids and meteors that bombarded the planet. Volcanoes acted as chemical reactors, creating a hot volcanic soup. Somehow, RNA molecules grew, eventually growing longer and more complex and folding into true proteins and double‑stranded DNA. They formed microbes that floated in thick mats on the volcanic ponds. When the ponds dried out, winds picked up their spores and spread them for miles. Rains eventually washed microbes into the ocean. “Once they reached the sea,” science author Carl Zimmer writes, “the whole planet came alive.”

Evolution’s next trick was developing a way for animals to deal with temperature fluctuations. In the long arc of evolution, two strategies have emerged: one is to let your body’s temperature change with the temperature around it, which is what creatures did for the first three and a half billion years or so. If necessary, these animals warm themselves by basking in sunlight or sitting on warm rocks. This heat management strategy survives today in fish, frogs, lizards, alligators, and all the reptiles and amphibians. Scientists call them ectotherms; you and I call them cold‑blooded.

But around 260 million years ago, a new heat management strategy emerged. Some animals found a way to control their own internal temperature that was not dependent on the temperature of their environment. In effect, it turns their bodies into little heat engines, allowing them to operate independently of the world outside — as long as they can maintain a steady temperature inside. This heat management strategy remains alive and well in animals that scientists call endotherms but that everyone else calls warm‑blooded: dogs, cats, whales, tigers, and virtually every other mammal on the planet, including us. Birds, which are flying dinosaurs, are also warm‑blooded. (“Birds are not like flying dinosaurs,” a scientist once corrected me. “They are flying dinosaurs.”)

The birth of warm‑bloodedness was an evolutionary leap, and one that scientists still don’t fully understand. For one thing, the traits of warm‑bloodedness do not transfer well to fossils, so you can’t just look at the bones of a long‑ago creature and determine whether it was warm‑ or cold‑blooded. For another, the transition from cold‑bloodedness to warm‑ bloodedness didn’t happen with a single quick jump. Many species — especially dinosaurs — had attributes of both.

At first glance, cold‑blooded creatures seem to have it easy. Because they cannot regulate their body temperature internally, they spend thirty times less energy than warm‑ blooded creatures of the same size. So, while mammals and birds are constantly investing their calories in maintaining a high, stable body temperature, reptiles and amphibians can just search for a warm spot in their surrounding environment if they want to get cozy. But if cold‑bloodedness is so great, why did mammals and birds develop a different strategy?

There are a lot of theories for why warm‑blooded animals evolved high, stable body temperatures. To name a few: a stable body temperature aids physiological processes, such as digestion and the absorption of nutrients; it helps animals maintain activity over longer periods of time; it enables par‑ ents to take care of precocial offspring. Warm‑bloodedness also allowed more precise and powerful functioning of certain cells in the nervous system, as well as in the heart and muscles.

Resistance to disease may have been another advantage. Insects bask in the sunlight to superheat their bodies and cook invading organisms; humans do the same by running a fever. But cold‑blooded creatures depend on external sources of heat to kill invaders. If it’s not hot out, a grasshopper can’t fry the dangerous microbes in its body. And if that grasshopper goes looking for a spot of sunshine, it might venture into new places and get picked off by a predator. Warm‑blooded animals don’t have that risk. They can rev up the heat engine wherever they are.

Warm‑blooded animals also move faster. John Grady, a biologist at the University of New Mexico, thinks the evolution to warm‑bloodedness was accelerated by the competitive advantage that comes with being a speedy predator. Higher body temperature equals higher metabolism, which equals quicker reactions and more active predation. “Imagine an iguana the size of a cow,” Grady told me. “These things existed. But they won’t exist in today’s world, because they are too slow. The closest thing we have are giant tortoises, and they have a strategy of just being armored. They don’t have to be fast. When you are big, being fast is important. I think getting killed is a real problem if you are big and cold‑blooded.”

Whatever the particular advantages of warm‑bloodedness may have been, it served mammals well. For the last seventy million years or so, they have spread across the globe, each creature a biological dynamo carrying its own fire inside. Their success gave rise, eventually, to a two‑legged primate that developed a big brain and an even more sophisticated heat management system to go with it. To get a glimpse of this remarkable creature, just look in the mirror.

In 1974, a pile of bones was found in the Awash River valley in Ethiopia by Donald Johanson, who, at the time, was a professor at Case Western Reserve University in Ohio. The bones belonged to a female human ancestor who lived about 3.2 million years ago. Judging from her intact wisdom teeth and the shape of her hip bone, Johanson determined that she was a teenager when she died. He named her Lucy, after the Beatles’ song “Lucy in the Sky with Diamonds,” which Johanson and his team had been listening to in camp when she was found.

It was a remarkable discovery, rewriting the story of human evolution. Even at the time, Lucy was not the oldest human ancestor ever found, but she filled an important gap in the evolutionary tree from early hominins (that is, all our human ancestors since we diverged from chimpanzees about seven million years ago) to modern humans. She was also remarkably well preserved for a girl who had been buried for more than three million years. She had a spine, pelvis, and leg bones very similar to those of modern humans. She did not yet have the brain size of a modern human, but she was positively, indisputably bipedal.

It took a while for our ancestors to learn to stand up. From the structure and shape of the fossils they’ve left behind, paleontologists know that early hominins hung out mostly in trees. On the ground, they moved on all fours, not unlike the way chimps do today.

But Lucy was different. The shape of her lower femur, as well as the development of her knee, indicate that she walked upright at least part of the time. But she wasn’t like us: she had wide hips and short legs. She was an evolutionary toddler just learning to venture out of the cover of the trees and onto the savanna.

The question is, what made Lucy stand up and start walking? It’s a much‑disputed subject among paleoanthropologists.

Some argue that it allowed our ancestors to carry tools better. Others believe that it helped them reach fruit high in trees. Still others suggest that bipedalism was the basis for monogamy and family, in that it allowed male hominins to go out and get food, which the female chimps would reward with companionship and sex.

Or standing up may have been a way of keeping cool. It allowed Lucy to catch breezes and help body heat to dissipate more easily. It also got her up off the ground, which is always significantly warmer than the air a few feet above it.

Whatever her motivation may have been, Lucy walked.

And it changed everything.

To understand the power of heat, you have to think of it not just as a change in temperature, but as an evolutionary hurdle. Heat management is a survival tool for all life on Earth, and the strategies to deal with it are as diverse and colorful as the animal kingdom itself.

Elephants are particularly fascinating. They spend a lot of time in the sun. To cool off, they seek shade and water. (In Botswana, I once watched a young elephant frolic in a muddy watering hole like a six year‑old kid at summer camp). Their thin hair and flapping ears help with heat dissipation. More importantly, as temperatures rise, their hides become more permeable. Their skin effectively opens up, allowing them to perspire, even though they don’t actually have sweat glands. Koalas hug trees with bark that is cooler than the air temperature. Kangaroos spit on their arms to wet them and cool off. Some squirrels use their bushy tails as parasols. Hippos roll in mud (water evaporates more slowly from mud, keeping them cool longer). Lions climb trees to get off the hot ground. Rabbits send blood to their big ears, using them as radiators. Vultures and storks defecate on their legs. Herons, nighthawks, pelicans, doves, and owls cool themselves with gular fluttering, a frequent vibration of their throat membranes, which increases airflow and thus increases evaporation. Giraffes’ beautifully patterned skin functions like a network of thermal windows. They direct warm blood to the vessels at the edges of the spots, forcing heat out of the animals’ bodies.

Other animals build structures to cool themselves, in some ways not so different from the way humans construct air‑conditioned buildings. Termites build an elaborate sys‑tem of air pockets within their mounds. Bees harvest water when they’re on their travels, then return to the hive and pass it by mouth to hive bees, which spread the droplets on the honeycomb. Other bees fan the water with their wings to cool the hive.

There aren’t many people who have thought more about heat as an evolutionary force than Jill Pruetz. For the past twenty years, she has spent a good part of every year in Senegal, near the village of Fongoli, where she has been studying chimpanzees that live in a hot environment. Pruetz has a way of talking about being among the chimps that suggests she knows them better than many people know their own children.

Pruetz and I met on a sunny spring day at a restaurant in Bastrop, Texas, near where she lives on a five‑acre farm. She grew up in south Texas and became fascinated with chimpanzees shortly after college, when she went to work at a chimpanzee center that bred chimps for biomedical research. She is now a professor of anthropology at Texas State, and runs the Fongoli Savanna Chimpanzee Project, where about thirty‑two chimps live in a 100‑square‑kilometer area, out‑ side the national park.

Pruetz and I sat at a wooden picnic table above the Colorado River and ate pizza while we talked. “I study chimps for a lot of reasons,” she told me. “But mostly because they are our closest living relative, and we can learn a lot about early human development by looking at how chimps behave and react to different kinds of stress in their lives.”

For the Fongoli chimps, heat is extremely stressful. During the hot dry season in Senegal, which peaks in March and April, the temperature can hit 120 degrees. “The heat is like a slap in the face,” Pruetz said. Trees are leafless. Water is scarce. Fires burn across their territory. These chimps live in the hottest, most arid place that chimps are known to exist. It is a brutal, apocalyptic landscape that is totally unlike the lush forests and jungles that every other chimp on the planet inhabits.

The chimps have been living on this piece of turf for a very long time. “Millennia,” Pruetz told me. Over time, the chimps gradually evolved a catalogue of strange behaviors — ones rarely if ever seen in others. Forest chimpanzees get enough water from the fruit in their diet, so they need less drinking water and can wander in search of food. The Fongoli chimps, by contrast, require daily drinking water and anchor themselves to reliable water sources in the arid landscape.

And while forest chimpanzees are active throughout the day, Pruetz found that the savanna chimpanzees rest for five to seven hours. Pruetz could often find them lurking in small caves in the dry season, and when the rainy season arrived, the chimpanzees would slip into newly formed ponds and bob there for hours. Forest chimpanzees typically spend all night in nests they build in trees. But at Fongoli, the research team noticed that the chimpanzees often made a late‑night racket.

During the hot season, the chimps totally change their behavior,” Pruetz told me. They stare at the sky, waiting for the rain they know is coming. At Fongoli, there are few trees, and the ones that are there don’t have many leaves for shade. On a hot day, Pruetz watched an adolescent chimp hiding in the shadow of a single tree trunk. As the day passed, the chimp moved with the shadow, trying to escape the heat.

Pruetz has also noticed something else, something that was perhaps key to the whole human story: in the heat, the Fongoli chimps spend more time standing up and walking around than chimps that live in cooler places.

Lucy lived in a rapidly changing world. It was nowhere near as rapidly changing as ours is today, but in evolutionary terms, it was on the move. The climate of East Africa was growing hotter and drier. Rain forests gave way to woodlands, and as the landscape opened up, the savanna emerged. “Over the past three to four million years, the scenery of East Africa shifted from the set of Tarzan to that of The Lion King,” writes Lewis Dartnell in Origins: How Earth’s History Shaped Human History. Ethiopia’s Rift Valley became a very complex environment, with woods and highlands, ridges, steep escarpments, hills, plateaus and plains, valleys, and deep freshwater lakes on the floor of the rift, which was gradually widening. Meanwhile, volcanoes like Mount Kilimanjaro were spewing pumice and ash across the whole region. New species like zebra were emerging from under the trees and appearing in the grasslands.

In this dynamic new world, Lucy had to be nimble. Water supplies were drying up and filling again with each passing rainstorm. Leopards and lions lurked in the ravines — she was both predator and prey (we think of the world that she lived in as so different from ours, but in fact, the creatures that made up East Africa at that time were similar to what is there today — lions and hyenas and elephants were all more or less the same). If the behavior of chimps today is any indi‑ cation, these early hominins weren’t exactly nimble — afraid of open ground, wary, fleeing back into the safety of trees whenever they could. The changing terrain, and the need to navigate through it, meant that the most vulnerable were killed by predators. But the most adaptive ones survived and thrived and learned new skills, including hunting with tools, which helped them shift away from a diet of fruit and termites and small forest creatures to a more meat‑centric diet, including gazelle and zebra, which they might have hunted in groups.

Kevin Hunt, a professor of anthropology at Indiana University who studies human evolution, believes bipedalism likely evolved gradually, over a million years or so. Lucy was an example of the first phase — she may have stood up both to escape the heat and to help her reach for fruit. The second phase, marked by the arrival of Homo erectus, had elongated limbs that allowed them to walk and run faster, a more slender body that better dissipated heat, and a more carnivorous diet.

But to take the next step in human evolution, to really allow our ancestors to range widely in the newly warmed world, they still needed one more key evolutionary innovation. They needed to learn how to sweat.

In our human ancestors, the evolution of the sweat gland is even more complex than the evolution of bipedalism. Bipedalism can be deduced from fossil bones. Sweat glands can’t. What is known about them can only be inferred by hints of behavior patterns found in other ways, and by the evidence we see in our own bodies and in the bodies of other animals.

What is clear is that as Lucy and her generation made their way out of the trees and into the savanna, they had to contend with heat in a way that they never did when living in the trees. In both cases, our ancestors came up with important innovations that still have big implications for how we live today.

First, there was sunlight to deal with. As they wandered out from under the trees, our ancestors were exposed to more and more ultraviolet radiation, which damages the cellular structure of skin and can harm DNA. So Lucy and her ancestors evolved the ability to produce melanin, the dark‑brown pigment that acts as a natural sunscreen. For several million years, our ancestors were all dark‑skinned. It was only after they migrated out of Africa and settled in more northern climates, and in high latitudes, that dark skin became an evolutionary disadvantage because it limited the sunlight getting through to trigger the production of vitamin D. So in regions where the sunlight was less intense, lighter skin had an advantage.

Dealing with heat was more complex. In warm‑blooded animals, more sunlight means more heat. More activity means more heat too. How far you can chase a wounded antelope in the heat depends on how well you manage heat. On the African plain, if you overheat, you go hungry. In addi‑ tion, our ancestors’ brains were evolving, and getting bigger. But big brains require a lot of cooling, and so developing a robust cooling system was important to advancing other skills, such as toolmaking.

The solution that evolution came up with was to build what amounts to an internal sprinkler system that douses our skin with water when we get too hot. As the water evaporates, it carries the heat off with it, cooling off our skin and the blood circulating just below it. When that cooler blood circulates, it brings down the temperature in our bodies.

If you’ve ever ridden a horse on a hot day, you know that other animals sweat. Horses, as well as many other mammals, have a particular kind of sweat gland that is part of their hair follicles called an apocrine gland. It sends out a thick, milky white liquid. You see it most clearly on racehorses, which sometimes finish a race looking like their necks are covered in shaving cream (thus the origin of the phrase “get in a lather”). Many furred mammals have apocrine glands, including camels and donkeys, as well as chimpanzees. These glands help with heat management, but they can’t really dis‑ sipate a lot of heat fast.

Humans have some apocrine glands in our armpits and pubic areas, which are evolutionary leftovers from an earlier time. They respond to nerves as well as heat, and are why your armpits sweat in an interview, and also why your sweat has a particular odor. Some anthropologists think that smell is an ancient sexual attractant; that it’s one of the ways we got to know one another.

But while our ancestors were wandering around in the heat on the African savanna, chasing down antelopes, they also perfected a much better heat management tool, which is the eccrine sweat gland. Instead of creating a lather, it is basically a mechanism to squirt water on your body, which will then evaporate and cool you off. It’s simple but brilliant. Hominins didn’t invent the eccrine gland. Old World monkeys like macaques have equal parts eccrine and apocrine glands. Our closer relatives, chimpanzees and gorillas, bear roughly two eccrine for every one apocrine gland. But beyond the apocrine leftovers in our armpits and pubic areas, human sweat glands are all eccrine.

Today, you and I have about two million of these sweat glands on our body. The glands themselves are like little coiled tubes buried in your skin. They are tiny, the size of a cell — you need a microscope to see them. They are not evenly distributed on your body: you have the most sweat glands on your hands, feet, and face, and the least on your butt. Sex differences are small. Women often have more sweat glands in any given area than men, but men often have a higher maximum sweating rate. The liquid the glands secrete is 99.5 percent water — its only function is to wet your skin. In hot weather, most people can easily sweat one quart per hour or 12 quarts a day, which is about ten times more than a chimp sweats.

To make our sweat glands even more effective, however, Lucy’s offspring made another evolutionary adjustment: they lost their body hair. For the evaporative sweat to really work, hair (or fur, which is just another name for hair on nonhuman animals) gets in the way, matting down when wet and interfering with the efficient transfer of heat away from your body. The only place we still have significant hair is on our heads, and that’s because our brains are so sensitive to heat, and in this situation, hair works as a sunshade to help keep our brains cool. (It also adds cushioning in a fall.)

The loss of hair on our bodies and the development of eccrine sweat glands were important evolutionary events, perhaps as important as the use of tools or fire. Other animals on the African savanna had developed heat stress strategies — the simplest of which is panting, as dogs do. But for a predator, panting is not a great strategy. A lion can move very fast for short distances, but it can’t pant while it runs. In the heat, it has to stop, rest, pant, and recover its thermal equilibrium. Humans figured out a way to keep cool in motion. We don’t have to stop and pant. We sweat as we go. In the story of human evolution, this was a very big deal. By managing heat, humans were able to go farther from water holes, begin long‑distance travel, and expand their hunting range.

Humans became excellent hot‑weather hunters. They could venture out in the heat of the day when other animals couldn’t, giving them a predatory advantage. By the time Homo erectus appeared about two million years ago, our ancestors were on their way to becoming endurance athletes, with long legs, nimble feet, and strong leg and hip muscles. With their superior heat management systems, they could literally run down an animal until it has heatstroke. This practice continues today. In the Kalahari Desert in southern Africa, modern hunter‑gatherers are able to kill a kudu, a kind of antelope that is far faster than humans over short distances, by chasing it for hours in the middle of the hot day, until it literally collapses of heat exhaustion.

But the heat management strategies of humans, like all living things, has been optimized for the Goldilocks Zone we have been living in for the last 10,000 years or so. Now, as we move out of that world, the job of managing heat gets much more complicated – and much more dangerous.

If we can send photos through the air and drive a rover around on Mars, we can design new ways to live in hot places. You can see it happening right now in Paris and Los Angeles and many other cities around the world, where shade trees are being planted and streets painted white to deflect sunlight. Plant geneticists are developing new strains of corn and wheat and soybeans that can better tolerate high temperatures. Air conditioning is becoming cheaper and more widely used. Communication from public health officials about how to protect yourself during a heat wave is improving. Clothing companies are developing new high-tech fabrics to reflect away sunlight and dissipate heat more quickly.

But even for the wealthy and privileged, adaptation to extreme heat has its limits. And the notion that eight billion people are going to thrive on a hotter planet by simply cranking up the air-conditioning or seeking refuge under a pine tree is a profound misunderstanding of the future we are creating for ourselves. In western Pakistan, where only the richest of the rich have air conditioning, it’s already too hot for humans several weeks a year. Planting a few thousand trees is not going to save them. In India, I talked with families who live in concrete slums that are so hot they burn their hands opening doors. Holy cities like Mecca and Jerusalem, where millions gather on religious pilgrimages, are caldrons of sweat.

In a world of heat-driven chaos, heat exposes deep fissures of inequity and injustice. Poverty equals vulnerability. If you have money, you can turn up the air conditioning, stock up on food and bottled water, and install a backup generator in case there’s a blackout. If things get bad enough, you can sell your house and move to a cooler place. If you’re poor, on the other hand, you swelter in an uninsulated apartment or trailer with no air conditioning or an old, inefficient machine that you can’t afford to run. You can’t move somewhere cooler because you’re afraid of losing your job and you don’t have the savings to start over. “We’re all in the storm, but we’re not in the same boat,” Heather McTeer Toney, the former mayor of Greenville, Mississippi, said during testimony before the US Congress. “Some of us are sitting on aircraft carriers while others are just bobbing along on a floatie.”

ATTACHMENT FIVE – From the Guardian U.K.

UN SAYS CLIMATE CHANGE ‘OUT OF CONTROL’ AFTER LIKELY HOTTEST WEEK ON RECORD

After record breaking days on Monday and Tuesday, unofficial analysis shows the world may have seen its hottest seven days in a row

By Guardian staff and agencies Thu 6 Jul 2023 23.42 EDT

The UN secretary general has said that “climate change is out of control”, as an unofficial analysis of data showed that average world temperatures in the seven days to Wednesday were the hottest week on record.

The average global air temperature was 17.18C (62.9F) on Tuesday, according to data collated by the US National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), surpassing the record 17.01C reached on Monday.

That metric showed that Earth’s average temperature on Wednesday remained at the record high of 17.18C.

Climate Reanalyzer uses data from the NCEP climate forecast system to provide a time series of daily mean two-metre air temperature, based on readings from surface, air balloon and satellite observations.

The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), whose figures are considered the gold standard in climate data, said on Thursday it could not validate the unofficial numbers.

It noted that the reanalyzer uses model output data, which it called “not suitable” as substitutes for actual temperatures and climate records. The NOAA monitors global temperatures and records on a monthly and an annual basis, not daily.

“We recognise that we are in a warm period due to climate change, and combined with El Niño and hot summer conditions, we’re seeing record warm surface temperatures being recorded at many locations across the globe,” the NOAA said.

Nevertheless, scientists agree they indicate climate change is reaching uncharted territory and that the increased heat from anthropogenic global heating combined with the return of El Niño would lead to more record-breaking temperatures.

The UN confirmed the return of El Niño, a sporadic weather pattern, on Tuesday. The last major El Niño was in 2016, which remains the hottest year on record.

“Chances are that the month of July will be the warmest ever, and with it the hottest month ever … ‘ever’ meaning since the Eemian [interglacial period], which is indeed some 120,000 years ago,” Dr Karsten Haustein, a research fellow in atmospheric radiation at Leipzig University, said.

Various parts of the world have been experiencing heatwaves and on Thursday the EU’s climate monitoring service said the world had experienced its hottest June on record last month.

The southern US has been sweltering under an intense heat dome in recent weeks, including on the national 4 July holiday on Tuesday. In parts of China, an enduring heatwave has continued, with temperatures reaching above 35C.

Overall, one of the largest contributors to this week’s heat records is an exceptionally mild winter in the Antarctic. Parts of the continent and nearby ocean were 10-20C (18-36F) higher than averages from 1979 to 2000.

“Temperatures have been unusual over the ocean and especially around the Antarctic this week, because wind fronts over the Southern Ocean are strong pushing warm air deeper south,” said Raghu Murtugudde, professor of atmospheric, oceanic and earth system science at the University of Maryland and visiting faculty at the Indian Institute of Technology, Mumbai.

Chari Vijayaraghavan, a polar explorer and educator who has visited the Arctic and Antarctic regularly for the past 10 years, said global warming is obvious at both poles and threatens the region’s wildlife as well as driving ice melt that raises sea levels.

“Warming climates might lead to increasing risks of diseases such as the avian flu spreading in the Antarctic that will have devastating consequences for penguins and other fauna in the region,” Vijayaraghavan said.

With Associated Press

ATTACHMENT SIX – Links from the New York Times

ATTACHMENT SEVEN – From the Washington Post

COAST-TO-COAST HEAT DOME SENDS TEMPERATURES SOARING, THREATENS ALL-TIME RECORDS

Heat alerts affect over 100 million people in 15 states from the western U.S. to South Florida

By Matthew Cappucci Updated July 13, 2023 at 11:04 a.m. EDT|Published July 13, 2023 at 10:52 a.m. EDT

A massive coast-to-coast heat dome is sprawled over the western and southern United States and is forecast to strengthen into the weekend. It’s generating soaring temperatures that are poised to approach all-time records in Phoenix, Las Vegas and California’s Central Valley and surpass 130 degrees in Death Valley, Calif., the heat capital of the world.

In many areas, the longevity of this ongoing heat wave is more remarkable than its intensity. Some locales have seen no relief from dangerous temperatures for over a month, and this heat wave shows no signs of relenting soon.

Excessive-heat watches and warnings or heat advisories affect over 100 million people and cover 15 states from Washington state to New Mexico, including Arizona and California, and from Texas to Florida.

In the West, it’s a blistering, dry heat that presents a growing risk for dehydration.

“Dangerous heat will result in a major to extreme risk for heat-related illnesses for much of the population, especially those who are heat sensitive and those without effective cooling and/or adequate hydration,” wrote the National Weather Service in Hanford, Calif. Excessive-heat warnings are in effect for much of California’s highly populated Central Valley, where highs could reach 117 degrees.

Death Valley could challenge the highest temperature ever reliably measured on the planet. The heat-prone site may make it above 130 degrees over the weekend, surpassing the record mark previously set at the same location in July 2021 and August 2020. Nighttime low temperatures in Death Valley are forecast to exceed 100 degrees.

Forecast highs on Sunday in the Southwest United States from the National Weather Service. (Ian Livingston)

Across the southern Plains, Deep South and Southeast, tropical moisture will overlap with hot weather to make heat exhaustion and heat stroke a dangerous threat. Heat indexes could climb into the 110-to-120-degree range. Marathon Key, Fla., just netted its hottest five-day period on record, with an average afternoon high of 97.2 degrees. Wednesday featured a heat index of 118 degrees. Unprecedented water temperatures between 94 and 98 degrees are also threatening sensitive corals and marine life.

Floods, fires and deadly heat are the alarm bells of a planet on the brink

The heat is not confined to the Lower 48 states. Southern Europe is also in the early stages of a dangerous heat wave. Excessively high temperatures are forecast from Portugal and Spain through southern Italy and as far east as Romania and Bulgaria on Thursday and Friday.

In Sicily and Sardinia, temperatures could approach 118 degrees (48 Celsius), challenging the highest levels ever observed in Europe, according to the European Space Agency. The heat will expand into Central Europe, including Germany and Poland, over the weekend and may linger over southern Europe for much of next week.

A punishing dry heat in the Southwest U.S.

The National Weather Service's forecast high temperatures for Sunday. Boxed values are predicted record highs. (WeatherBell)

It’s not just Death Valley facing all-time records. Sunday is expected to bring a high of 117 degrees to Las Vegas, which would tie the city’s hottest temperature ever recorded. There’s a chance that Saturday, Sunday, Monday and Tuesday could also tie a record-long streak (four days in 2005) of afternoon highs at or above 115 degrees.

In California’s Central Valley, highs will peak between 12 and 15 degrees above average both days this weekend, generally between 108 and 113 degrees. Sunday’s highs have the greatest propensity to shatter records far and wide. A few record-warm overnight lows are also anticipated as temperatures fail to fall below 75 degrees in spots.

Interior Southern California will also swelter. “A dangerous, prolonged heat wave is in store for inland areas through at least early next week, with the hottest days Sat[urday] through Mon[day],” tweeted the Weather Service forecast office in San Diego.

Phoenix, meanwhile, arguably the most heat-prone city in America, established a record warm nighttime low of 94 degrees Wednesday and is poised to set numerous additional records.

Phoenix has already logged 13 days straight with highs at or above 110 degrees and is closing on the record of 18 days which should be surpassed early next week. Every day in the seven-day forecast for Phoenix calls for highs of 112 or greater.

By multiple metrics — including record-warm nights (already three in a row of 90 degrees or hotter) — this is already the city’s worst heat wave on record, and the hottest days are still to come. On Saturday, Phoenix may hit 118 degrees, with an outside chance of 120.

Over the next week, the Weather Service is forecasting an average temperature (of high and low temperatures) of 104.6 degrees in Phoenix, which would crush the city’s previous warmest week on record, which had an average temperature of 102.9 degrees.

It’s worth noting that dry heat is dangerous because, in a dry atmosphere, moisture immediately evaporates off a person’s skin. That means they may not notice they’re sweating and becoming hydrated until it’s too late. Air masses like these quickly desiccate everything around them.

Hot and steamy in the central states and Southeast

The National Weather Service's forecast for highs on Thursday. (Pivotal Weather)

For Texas, the southern Plains, the mid-South, Gulf Coast and Florida, intense heat is combining with tropical moisture to bring hazardous heat indexes. Away from the coastline, most of Texas will see air temperatures in the 100-to-105-degree range Thursday, with lower to mid-90s elsewhere across Oklahoma, Kansas, Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama and Louisiana. The temperatures alone probably won’t break many records.

But extreme humidity, with dew points in the 70s, will spread over most of the region. That means that every cubic meter of air will be holding roughly half a shot glass’s worth of moisture. The atmosphere, which will be closer to saturation, won’t be able to evaporate sweat off a person’s skin and allow evaporative cooling to regulate body temperature. As a result, heat stress will grow, and heat indexes of 105 to 112 degrees will be widespread. A few locations will feel like 115 degrees or worse.

In Florida, a main culprit has been the ongoing historic marine heat wave. A number of spots off the southwest Florida coastline are seeing water temperatures of 95 degrees or greater. That is adding exceptional amounts of moisture into the air.

Miami had a heat index of 110 degrees on Monday and 108 on Tuesday. The city is at 32 days in a row with a heat index over 100 degrees, and a record 11 consecutive days with a heat index topping 105. Only meager improvement is likely in the days ahead, as afternoon thunderstorms return to the forecast.

What’s causing the heat?

A look at the heat dome swelling and intensifying into next week. (WeatherBell)

Triggering the heat is a sprawling ridge of high pressure, which acts as a force field to deter any storms and deflect the jet stream to the north. That’s allowing sinking air to heat up and dry out, with readings spiking 5 to 15 degrees above average. On Thursday, that heat dome reached from off the coast of the Baja Peninsula and Southern California up to the eastern North Pacific and over to the Gulf of Mexico.

By the middle of next week, however, it’s slated to intensify and consolidate, all while shifting toward New Mexico and Texas. It will anchor itself over the southern Plains and Rockies, spreading its sphere of influence across most of the western, south-central and southeastern U.S. Sunshine will pour down unimpeded, baking the ground even more

ATTACHMENT EIGHT – Also from the Washington Post

FLORIDA OCEAN TEMPERATURES AT ‘DOWNRIGHT SHOCKING’ LEVELS

The extreme heat around Florida is further intensifying the state’s ongoing heat wave and could make hurricanes worse

By Dan Stillman Updated July 10, 2023 at 2:16 p.m. EDT|Published July 10, 2023 at 2:06 p.m. EDT

Not only is Florida sizzling in record-crushing heat, but the ocean waters that surround it are scorching, as well. The unprecedented ocean warmth around the state — connected to historically warm oceans worldwide — is further intensifying its heat wave and stressing coral reefs, with conditions that could end up strengthening hurricanes.

Live weather updates: Extreme heat waves to hit Florida, Texas and Southwest

“That’s boiling for them! More typically it would be in the upper 80s,” tweeted Jeff Berardelli, chief meteorologist and climate specialist at WFLA-TV in Tampa.

The temperatures are so high that they are off the scale of the color contours on some weather maps.

The warmth registers as a Category 3 out of 5 on the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s marine heat wave scale. NOAA defines a marine heat wave as a period with persistent and unusually warm ocean temperatures, “which can have significant impacts on marine life as well as coastal communities and economies.” The agency describes Category 3 as “severe.”

Such warm water temperatures “would be impressive any time of year, but they’re occurring when the water would already be rather warm, bringing it up to bona fide bathtub conditions that we rarely see,” Brian McNoldy, senior research associate at the University of Miami and hurricane expert for Capital Weather Gang, said in an email.

The toasty waters are influencing temperatures on land by raising the humidity, which makes it harder for temperatures to cool off at night. Numerous records for temperatures and heat indexes have been broken since mid-June, and the heat wave is expected to continue for at least a week. According to McNoldy, Miami’s heat index soared to 110 degrees on Monday and has reached at least 100 on 30 straight days.

Miami, Tampa and Fort Myers are expected to hit a heat index of 105 or higher on each of the next seven days, according to the The Washington Post’s heat tracker.

“It’s an astounding, prolonged heat wave even for a place that’s no stranger to sultry weather,” said McNoldy, who also cautioned that the warm waters could make tropical storms or hurricanes stronger. “It’s not something we like to see near land simply because it would allow a storm to maintain a high intensity right up to landfall or rapidly intensify as it approaches landfall.”

Hurricane forecasters have recently upped their predictions for the season in response to the rising ocean temperatures.

The marine heat wave is also causing coral bleaching, which can leave corals vulnerable to deadly diseases. NOAA’s Coral Reef Watch has recorded an “Alert Level 1” off the coast of South Florida. That is the second-highest level, described by NOAA as “significant bleaching likely.”

Berardelli credited unusually light winds since late May, in addition to the heat dome, as contributing to the warming sea surface: “Typically Florida sees a nice breeze from the [southeast] but this summer pattern has been resilient,” he tweeted. “The water is warming under this stagnation!” Light winds can lead to stagnant waters, which prevent deeper, colder water from churning to the top, allowing the ocean surface to heat more quickly.

Sea surface temperature differences from normal in the Gulf of Mexico. (Ian Livingston)

The hot waters around Florida are connected to record-breaking ocean heat worldwide. About 40 percent of the world’s oceans are facing a marine heat wave, NOAA reported. That is the highest percentage on record, and it could reach 50 percent by September.

Scientists also attribute the widespread heat of the global ocean waters to human-caused climate change, which has helped boost the oceans to record-warm levels.

More on extreme heat

Our warming climate: As a heat dome intensifies in Arizona, follow our live updates on the heat wave moving across the southern U.S. It’s not just you ⁠— summers in the U.S. are getting hotter. Look up your city to see your extreme heat risk with our tracker. Take a look at what extreme heat does to the human body.

How to stay safe: It’s better to prepare for extreme heat before you’re in it. Here’s our guide to bracing for a heat wave, tips for staying cool even if you don’t have air conditioning, and what to know about animal safety during extreme heat. Traveling during a heat wave isn’t ideal, but here’s what to do if you are.

Understanding the science: Sprawling zones of high pressure called heat domes fuel heat waves. Here’s how they work. You can also read more about the link between weather disasters and climate change, and how leaders in the U.S. and Europe are responding to heat.

Canada sees its farthest-north 100-degree temperature as wildfires rage

ATTACHMENT NINE – From NBC
HEAT, FLOODING AND SMOKE: THE U.S. IS IN THE MIDST OF A SUMMER OF EXTREMES

This year’s events have yet to be thoroughly analyzed. But scientists see the string of events as a part of a larger, undeniable pattern of extremes that’s intensifying over time.

By Evan Bush July 15, 2023, 8:00 AM EDT

The word of the summer is “extreme.”

Extreme flooding. Extreme heat. Extreme smoke.

Scientists have predicted a climate of extremes in report after report as Earth warms because humans continue to belch fossil fuel pollution into the atmosphere.

And now, it’s here — with a dizzying slew of broken records and heartbreaking scenes.

The images — a smoky Central Park in sepia, kayaks floating on the streets of Montpelier, Vermont, and packed cooling centers in Arizona — still provide a shock, even for those expecting them.

Researchers have not yet calculated how much climate change has altered the odds of the specific weather events causing disruptions this summer. But scientists see the fingerprints of climate change sizzling across the landscape, and it’s playing out like a car wreck from which you can’t look away. The events have roiled communities in almost every region of North America, taken lives, damaged homes and stolen the simple pleasures of summer.

Here’s what stands out: Earth had its hottest recorded days for average global temperatures earlier this month, which some scientists believe is a sign that El Niño is taking hold and boosting temperatures on top of background warming from climate change.

· Sea surface temperatures have been record hot since mid-March. A prolonged marine heat wave is cooking waters off the coast of Florida, pushing ocean temperatures about 5 to 7 degrees Fahrenheit above normal, according to Brian McNoldy, a senior research associate at the University of Miami Rosenstiel School of Marine, Atmospheric and Earth Science. Waters off the Florida Keys recently hit record high temperatures. Oceans have absorbed about 90% of the heat trapped by greenhouse gases.

· Canada saw more acreage burned this year by wildfires than any other year on record. A record-smashing heat wave this spring primed northern Canada for the fires that have burned more than 37,000 square miles of land so far, according to the Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Centre. Scientists are predicting wildfires to increase in North America as temperatures warm and make fire behavior more likely. A buildup of fuels from fire suppression and forest management practices is also contributing to the problem.

· Canada’s wildfires have twice sent smoke pouring into the U.S. A Stanford University analysis found that it was the worst year of wildfire smoke exposure per U.S. resident since at least 2006, when the data was first available. More smoke is likely coming this summer.

· A heat wave centered on south Texas seared the state without respite for more than two weeks in June and early this month. Del Rio faced 18 straight days of temperatures above 100 F, according to National Weather Service data. Nighttime temperatures provided little relief. Climate change is shifting baseline temperatures, making heat waves more frequent and intense.

· Heavy precipitation pounded the Northeast earlier this week, flooding communities like Montpelier and dumping as much as 9 inches of rain on Vermont cities in a two-day storm, according to weather service data. Almost a fifth of the rainfall these areas expect in a typical year fell in two days. A warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture, which makes extreme rainfall more likely.

· The big melt of California’s snowpack flooded more than 110,000 acres of premium farmland in California, sinking tractors, electrical equipment and farmhouses. A dozen atmospheric river storms built a snowpack roughly three times as large as is typical this winter in the southern Sierra mountains. Because a warmer atmosphere can absorb more water vapor, atmospheric rivers are expected to grow stronger as the world warms.

· Phoenix officials said they were frightened for unsheltered residents as the city reported its 13th day above 110 F on Thursday as a prolonged heat wave cooked the desert Southwest, according to weather service data. The weekend forecast calls for high temperatures of 118 F in Phoenix. Death Valley, California, could approach 130 F. In recent years, scientists have performed attribution studies to determine just how improbable a weather event would have been in the cooler climate of the past.

CLIMATE IN CRISIS Got Sriracha? The price for a bottle of Huy Fong’s iconic hot sauce gets spicy with supplies short

Scientists determined a June 2021 heat wave in the Pacific Northwest would have been “virtually impossible” if not for the impacts of climate change. A peer-reviewed study found the event would have been at least 150 times less likely if global temperatures had not warmed so much because of human activity.

This year’s events have yet to be so thoroughly analyzed. But scientists see the string of events as a part of a larger, undeniable pattern of extremes that’s intensifying over time.

“The individual drivers of these events — of course we cannot say anything about them right now — but in general, these are consistent with what we would expect,” Deepti Singh, an assistant professor in the School of Environment at Washington State University Vancouver, said of the record-breaking temperatures. “It’s not surprising that we’re seeing these concurrent widespread extreme heat events across multiple regions around the world.”

“It’s not just in isolated spots,” McNoldy said. “So many parts of the world are having records broken at the same time and they’re not just hit and miss. It’s not a day here, a day there — it’s prolonged.”

So far, the pace of climate change is outpacing most communities’ ability to manage.

“It causes me a lot of anxiety, the start of the summer season,” Singh said. “The fact we are seeing so many fatalities and such extreme impacts means we’re not prepared and we’re not adapted to the conditions we’re experiencing.”

ATTACHMENT TEN – From CNN

This week saw the hottest global temperature ever recorded, according to data from two climate tracking agencies that covers multiple decades.

On Monday, the average global temperature reached 17.01 degrees Celsius (62.62 Fahrenheit), the highest in the US National Centers for Environmental Prediction’s data, which goes back to 1979. On Tuesday, it climbed even further, reaching 17.18 degrees Celsius and global temperature remained at this record-high on Wednesday.

The previous record of 16.92 degrees Celsius was set in August 2016.

The European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service confirmed that Monday’s and Tuesday’s global temperatures were also records in its data, which dates back to 1940.

While these global temperature records are based on data sets that go back to the mid-20th century, they are almost certainly the warmest the planet has seen over a much longer time period, some scientists say, given what we know from many millennia of climate data extracted from ice cores and coral reefs.

This week’s records are probably the warmest in “at least 100,000 years,” Jennifer Francis, a senior scientist at Woodwell Climate Research Center, told CNN, calling the records “a huge thing.”

ATTACHMENT ELEVEN – From WTOL (Toledo, OH)

EARTH'S HOTTEST DAY IN MODERN HISTORY LIKELY RECORDED JULY 4; SAME RECORD TIED AGAIN ON JULY 5

Scientist are concerned the recent warmth is caused by El Niño and global climate change.

Author: Chris Vickers Published: 10:50 AM EDT July 7, 2023 Updated: 11:57 AM EDT July 7, 2023

TOLEDO, Ohio — It is very likely that the Earth’s global temperature reached a new modern-day record high, not just once, but on three consecutive days that broke or tied records. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), July 3, 4 and 5 all consecutively broke records as the Earth’s hottest day since scientists began recording in 1979.

What is driving this recent extreme spike in global temperatures? The answer in part is tied to the developing El Niño conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean.

The development of the warmer-than-average equatorial Pacific waters after a 4 year hiatus (La Niña phase) is now releasing enormous amounts of heat stored in the oceans back into the atmosphere.

This coupled with extremely warm Atlantic ocean temperatures and record-low Antarctic ice coverage are several severe warning signs of a warming climate.

The final ingredient is a warmer climate due to human-caused emissions of greenhouse gases. Data over the past several decades shows an increase of CO2 of nearly 50% and an increase in methane (another greenhouse gas) concentrations of around 150%.

With El Niño just beginning to ramp up and greenhouse gases steadily rising, get ready for more records to perhaps break before the summer season concludes.

How is the Earth’s global average obtained? The global average temperature and record registered was calculated by a model that uses data from weather stations, ships, ocean buoys and satellites around the world. This modeling system has been used to estimate daily average temperatures since 1979.

This recent global record comes on the heels of what was globally the warmest June since at least 1940.

Does this global heat wave guarantee that it will be hot here locally? Not necessarily.

In fact, based on new climate normals, the month of June was 2 degrees below average locally in Toledo. We have recorded to date this year five days at 90 degrees or warmer. Last year our season total was 23 days at 90 degrees or warmer which was above the average of 19 day per season.

ATTACHMENT TWELVE – From the Guardian U.K.

MONDAY WAS HOTTEST DAY FOR GLOBAL AVERAGE TEMPERATURE ON RECORD, AS CLIMATE CRISIS BITES

Heatwaves sizzled around the world from the US south and the north of Africa to China and Antarctica

By Guardian staff and agency Tue 4 Jul 2023 14.37 EDT

This Monday, 3 July 2023, was the hottest day ever recorded globally, according to data from the US National Centers for Environmental Prediction.

The average global temperature reached 17.01C (62.62F), surpassing the August 2016 record of 16.92C (62.46F), as heatwaves sizzled around the world.

Climate-heating El Niño has arrived and threatens lives, declares UN

The southern US has been suffering under an intense heat dome in recent weeks amid extreme weather, probably driven by the human-caused climate crisis, experts said. In parts of China, an enduring heatwave continued, with temperatures above 35C (95F). North Africa has seen temperatures near 50C (122F), with, in the Middle East, thousands suffering from unusually scorching heat during the hajj religious pilgrimage in Saudi Arabia.

And even Antarctica, currently in its winter, registered anomalously high temperatures, as glacier melt accelerates and the sun intensifies. Ukraine’s Vernadsky research base, in the vast frozen continent’s Argentine Islands, recently broke its July temperature record with a reading of 8.7C (47.6F).

Jeni Miller, executive director of the California-based Global Climate and Health Alliance, an international consortium of health organizations, said: “People around the world are already enduring climate impacts, from heatwaves, wildfires and air pollution to floods and extreme storms. Global warming is also exacerbating crop losses and the spread of infectious diseases, as well as migration.”

She added: “The extraction and use of coal, oil and gas harm people’s health, are the primary driver of warming and are incompatible with a healthy climate future. That’s all the more reason that governments must prepare to deliver a commitment at Cop28 to phase out all fossil fuels, and a just transition to renewable energy for all.”

The climate scientist Friederike Otto of the Grantham Institute for Climate Change and the Environment at Britain’s Imperial College London, said: “It’s a death sentence for people and ecosystems.”

Scientists lamented the climate crisis, accelerated by the El Niño weather pattern, the latest of which the United Nations’ World Meteorological Organization (WMO) warned this week had begun. The last major El Niño was in 2016, which was the hottest year on record – until now.

Of the new temperature record announced on Tuesday, Zeke Hausfather, a research scientist at Berkeley Earth, said: “Unfortunately, it promises to only be the first in a series of new records set this year as increasing emissions of [carbon dioxide] and greenhouse gases, coupled with a growing El Niño event, push temperatures to new highs.”

ATTACHMENT THIRTEEN – Also from the Guardian U.K.
TUESDAY WAS WORLD’S HOTTEST DAY ON RECORD – BREAKING MONDAY’S RECORD

Average global temperature hits 17.18C and experts expect record to be broken again very soon

By Damien Gayle Wed 5 Jul 2023 13.47 EDT

World temperature records have been broken for a second day in a row, data suggests, as experts issued a warning that this year’s warmest days are still to come – and with them the warmest days ever recorded.

Until the start of this week, the hottest day on record was in 2016, during the last El Niño global weather event, when the global average temperature reached 16.92C.

ATTACHMENT FOURTEEN – Again, from GUK

MONDAY WAS HOTTEST DAY FOR GLOBAL AVERAGE TEMPERATURE ON RECORD, AS CLIMATE CRISIS BITES

Heatwaves sizzled around the world from the US south and the north of Africa to China and Antarctica

By Guardian staff and agency Tue 4 Jul 2023 14.37 EDT

This Monday, 3 July 2023, was the hottest day ever recorded globally, according to data from the US National Centers for Environmental Prediction.

The average global temperature reached 17.01C (62.62F), surpassing the August 2016 record of 16.92C (62.46F), as heatwaves sizzled around the world.

Climate-heating El Niño has arrived and threatens lives, declares UN

On Tuesday, the World Meteorological Organization, the UN’s weather body, confirmed El Niño had returned. Experts predicted that, combined with the increased heat from anthropogenic global heating, it would lead to more record-breaking temperatures.

“Chances are that the month of July will be the warmest ever, and with it the hottest month ever … ‘ever’ meaning since the Eemian, which is indeed some 120,000 years ago.”

The record-breaking mean temperature was reported by the Climate Reanalyzer service hosted by the University of Maine’s Climate Change Institute. It uses data from the NCEP’s climate forecast system to provide a time series of daily mean two-metre air temperature, based on readings from surface, air balloon and satellite observations. The Guardian contacted the Climate Change Institute for comment.

Various parts of the world have been experiencing heatwaves. The Met Office said on Monday that the UK had had its hottest ever June. The southern US has been sweltering under an intense heat dome in recent weeks, including on the national 4 July holiday on Tuesday. In parts of China, an enduring heatwave continued, with temperatures above 35C.

North Africa has experienced temperatures near 50C, and in the Middle East thousands have been enduring unusually scorching heat as they make the hajj religious pilgrimage in Saudi Arabia.

Even Antarctica, where it is currently winter, has registered anomalously high temperatures. Ukraine’s Vernadsky research base, in the vast frozen continent’s Argentine Islands, recently broke its July temperature record with a reading of 8.7C.

“The temperatures creating these record-breaking days match exactly expectations under human-caused climate change,” said Ilan Kelman, a professor of disasters and health at University College London’s Institute for Risk and Disaster Reduction.

“As the rising temperatures drive worsening heatwaves, including terrible humidity, we expect to see substantial increases in related deaths. Many people cannot afford indoor cooling and some people must be outside for work. Heat-humidity then becomes the silent killer, since we often do not realise how many people are in lethal difficulty, especially when it does not cool down at night.”

ATTACHMENT FIFTEEN – and Again, from GUK

‘HELL ON EARTH’: PHOENIX’S EXTREME HEATWAVE TESTS THE LIMITS OF SURVIVAL

Residents of Arizona’s capital are used to scorching heat, but the summer’s unyielding sizzle is making it harder to live there

By Gabrielle Canon Fri 14 Jul 2023 10.00 EDT

Arizona’s capital city is nicknamed “Valley of the Sun”, and residents are used to scorching heat. But by day 12 of a vicious heatwave that’s sent temperatures soaring into triple digits, with little relief overnight, limits are being tested – and it’s only going to get hotter.

The city is on track to break a grim milestone. If the heatwave continues as predicted, Phoenix will have endured an 18-day stretch of temperatures above 110F (43.3C) by Tuesday.

“Phoenix has always been hot,” said Michelle Litwin, the city’s heat response program manager. But this is something else.

Litwin and her team are tasked with aiding the city’s most vulnerable during the city’s brutally hot months, a season that now stretches from April to September. On Wednesday, she and a crew of city workers and volunteers set up a booth at a sprawling homeless encampment to hand out cold water bottles, hygiene kits and other resources that, for those living on the streets, could potentially mean the difference between life and death.

“This is Arizona’s natural disaster,” Litwin said. “We might have flash floods but heat is our issue.”

The city was the first in the country to fund a dedicated heat department in 2021, which has launched dozens of programs with ambitious goals, including planting more trees, opening cooling centers and ensuring people across the region have working air-conditioning units.

Despite the work, the numbers of heat-related fatalities have swelled dramatically in recent years, culminating in a record 425 lives lost last year. The climate crisis is upping the stakes, with temperatures only expected to surge further in the coming years. Staying one step ahead has proved a difficult – and deadly – challenge.

More people are making Phoenix their home even as the risks rise and a growing population is putting strain on housing and water – two resources that help dull the strain of stifling heat – both resources in short supply.

Heat, a quiet killer and one of the world’s deadliest disasters, takes an unequal toll. Fifty-six percent of those who succumbed to the heat last year in Maricopa county, where Phoenix is located, were unhoused. Of the people who died indoors, all of them were living in homes and buildings that weren’t cooled. In 78% of cases, AC units were present but not functioning.

The county’s statistics also show the disparities run along racial lines. Only 6.8% of Maricopa’s population is Black, but 11% of heat-related fatalities were Black people. Indigenous people, who accounted for 8% of deaths, are only 2.9% of the population.

At the homeless encampment, a line is forming at a booth where Arizona State University nursing students have joined the city workers to distribute coolers full of water bottles, wet towels and information to the hundreds of tents sprawling along the streets just steps from the city center.

It’s early afternoon and the cloud cover has burned off, leaving sunlight to cook the sidewalks which can reach temperatures of 160F (71.1C). Shade is sparse and the stale air is stifling as nurses cart wagons of refillable water jugs through the tents, offering them to inhabitants. They run out quickly.

Michael Shaw, a 49-year-old encampment resident, rings a soaking towel over his head and neck, lamenting the weekend heat that lies ahead. He knows people who have already lost their lives to the extreme conditions and is concerned their numbers will grow. Before securing his own stash of water, he alerted the workers that a woman in a nearby tent had suffered a stroke and was in need of help.

“It is hell on earth,” Shaw said. “I am pretty tough but these last few days are everything I can handle.” Life on this block is filled with danger and violence and the lure of drugs to dull the pain is constant, only adding to the strain. “I have been robbed and mugged. But the heat,” he said, “– it’s the killer.”

The city has been ordered to clear this area, known as “The Zone,” and officials have asked for more time to ensure people living here are provided with somewhere to go. There are shelter spots available and city-run cooling centers offer a reprieve. But it’s unclear how many will get a bed inside at the end of the day; for now, at least, they will have access to essential hydration.

‘Effects of climate change are here’

By the afternoon it is approaching 110F (43.3C). But Pomello Park on the other side of town, where trees sway over verdant lawns that line quiet cul-de-sacs, feels a world apart.

Greenery makes a big difference in how a person fares during extreme heat. Shade can make temperatures feel up to 30 degrees cooler, according to Lora Martens, the urban tree program manager for the city’s office of heat response and mitigation. She is leading the effort to spread the shade to more exposed areas of the city, but that isn’t as easy as it sounds.

“The parts of our city that need trees the most are the hardest places to plant them,” she said. Trees struggle to thrive in the hottest areas, especially when landscapes are encased in concrete. The city is also having to balance the increasing need for shade with the decreasing availability of water. It had hoped to hit its goal of 25% canopy coverage, but the drought is making it harder. “We are reassessing that goal with a lighter water future,” Martens said.

Such realities have forced a difficult reckoning with what’s possible as global heating pushes Arizona into uncharted territory. “The effects of climate change are here,” she said. “We are having conversations no one has had before.”

For now, that means two starkly different realities for the residents of Phoenix.

As the sun sinks in the sky on Wednesday evening, some emerge from air-conditioned homes to walk their dogs, taking advantage of temperatures hovering just under 100F (37.7C).

“This is just our winter,” said Shawn Bohl, out with his wife Debbie after a day spent inside. Their dog Wally pulled impatiently on the leash as they explained that, like other parts of the country forced inside during the most frigid months, the heat is part of life in Phoenix. The weather doesn’t feel as extreme to them as it might seem to others.

Still, the city will not shut down during the sizzling summers. Trash has to be picked up. Construction continues through the midday heat.

For those who have to live or work outside, the weeks ahead will be grueling.

“Here we work the whole year,” says landscaper Crispin Allejah, as he wipes sweat from his face, “and you need work.” Tending to a patch of grass in a Whole Foods parking lot, Allejah is clad in a long-sleeve shirt to protect his skin from the sun, along with heavy jeans, kneepads and boots.

“You have to keep yourself moving,” he said. “If you stand in one place it is going to be too hot.” He also has learned not to drink too much water too fast. “You have to drink water but if you drink too much, sometimes you throw up.”

Amazon delivery driver Gabe Castle has developed strategies for surviving long, hot work days – particularly on Wednesday, when he was in the thick of Amazon prime day with a huge volume of packages to deliver.

In his van he’s packed a cooler with 15 ready-to-drink water bottles, six frozen water bottles and five Gatorades. He fills every other bottle with a packet of electrolyte mix. He stashes one of two small towels on ice – and switches them out between deliveries to drape over his head and neck.

“This is my AC,” he said, gesturing to the material around his shoulders as sweat and water darken his blue shirt.

He’s used to working in such conditions, but admits it’s getting harder. “You never really get acclimated to the sweltering heat,” he said. “But you get to the point where it’s easier to combat it.”

Castle is concerned about the future. Life in Phoenix has brought the climate crisis into sharper focus but he fears others aren’t heeding the call.

“We have to do what we can to make sure these things are dealt with in a timely fashion, but we are behind the 8 ball,” he said. He looked quickly at his clock – his break was over and it was time to go back to work.

“I really hope we can figure this out soon,” he said, as he walked back toward his van. “Before our planet just totally goes up in a fireball.”

ATTACHMENT SIXTEEN – From Time

HOW CITIES CAN GET RELIEF FROM EXTREME HEAT

BY JEFFREY KLUGER JULY 12, 2023 3:56 PM EDT

One of the last places in the country you wanted to be on July 11 was Houston, Texas. Roasting under a heat dome, Houston topped 105ºF that day, continuing a punishing trend that has already seen the city hit over 90°F on 46 days in 2023.

Houston isn’t alone. Record highs have been reached this summer in Tucson, Ariz.; Tampa, Fla.; Corpus Christi, Texas.; and both Stockton and Sacramento, Calif., which on July 1 posted twin readings of 109ºF. Climate change is surely playing a role in the rise of such incinerating heat, but it is no coincidence either that the greatest suffering has been endured not in the outlying suburbs, exurbs, or countryside, but in city centers, characterized by what experts call urban heat islands.

Strip away natural tree cover and other foliage; lay down asphalt parking lots and ribbons of highway; construct buildings tall enough to cut off natural wind flow—and you create urban ovens, which absorb heat during the day and slowly radiate it back out at night. Even after sundown, there is no relief to be found.

On average, according to the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), cities range from one to seven degrees hotter than the countryside during the day and two to five degrees hotter at night. And that’s nothing compared to the differences within cities themselves, some parts of which are planted with tree cover and parkland, and others of which are denuded of green, and encased in asphalt and concrete.

Houston is a case study. Only 18% of the city has any appreciable tree cover, and not all Houstonians get their share: There is a 14% discrepancy between the green cover in wealthier parts of the city compared to poorer ones. To fix this, Houston aims to plant no fewer than 4.6 million trees by 2030.

Until then, to cope with the current heat wave, Houston has implemented its heat emergency plan opening 22 cooling centers (such as libraries, YMCAs, and community centers); urging the use of some two dozen city pools; warning residents about the importance of staying hydrated and avoiding caffeine and alcohol, which cause dehydration; and encouraging the elderly, the young, and anyone with a chronic disease to stay inside air-conditioned buildings between 1:00 p.m. and 5:00 p.m.

These efforts may help in the short-term, but more can be done by cities like Houston to combat the heat island effect. The first step for many cities, Jones says, is planting trees and establishing parks wherever possible. Reflective rooftops can reduce the amount of heat buildings absorb during the day. And coating concrete and asphalt surfaces with titanium dioxide—which is also found in sunscreen—can help keep their temperature down.

“There are a variety of other coatings too that have been developed that can reflect a lot of that [solar] energy,” says Jones. In some cases, merely painting streets a reflective shade of gray can help as well.

To help better understand how heat is affecting cities the federal government has been studying the heat island problem. Since 2017, NOAA has been conducting a citizen-scientist heat island mapping campaign, under which volunteers with heat sensors on their cars or bicycles travel through their neighborhoods in the morning, afternoon, and evening, recording location and temperature readings and sending them back to NOAA for collation and eventual remedial action. This year, the campaign is taking place in 15 different cities across 14 states; since 2017, more than 60 cities have been mapped.

“This has been a really fantastic opportunity to assist communities in collecting temperature and humidity data,” says Jones. “We then use machine learning to generate maps to show them where the intensity and the most severe heating is.”

The problem of urban heat islands, however, is not going away any time soon—and with 56% of the human population living in cities, it affects the majority of us. Curbing climate change is the ultimate, long-term, solution. Until that happens, adapting is the answer to the mess we’ve made—and suffering is the price.

ATTACHMENT SEVENTEEN – From the Washington Post

TREE RINGS FROM CENTURIES PAST MAY HELP REVEAL A WARMING PLANET’S FUTURE

Armed with the world’s largest collection of tree rings, scientists are looking for clues to climate change

By Karen Peterson March 23, 2022 at 8:00 a.m. EDT

TUCSON — Each specimen in a strangely beautiful “treehouse” laboratory here tells a story of resilience — from droughts and floods to catastrophic wildfires and bitter winters, some occurring thousands of years ago.

Nowadays, though, much of the work at the University of Arizona’s Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research is about the future of a planet that’s squaring off against global warming and its cascading disasters.

Armed with the largest collection of its kind in the world — 700,000 samples and counting — scientists are trying to better comprehend what’s ahead by translating the autobiographies that trees record in their rings.

The basics are known: Rings reveal a tree’s age, with thin rings indicating drier years and wide rings, wetter years. Pockmarks on rings identify years of extreme cold; blackened blotches are burn scars from fires a tree survived.

“Climate variability drives tree-ring variability,” said fire ecologist Thomas W. Swetnam, the former director of the lab, who describes it as “a big library of climate and human history.”

Tucson is the birthplace of this field of scientific study. Dendrochronology, which uses the annual growth patterns of trees to date events and environmental changes, was launched in the 1920s by astronomer Andrew Ellicott Douglass. He had the idea that tree rings could be used to understand how solar cycles affect Earth’s climate, and though that theory didn’t pan out, he was the first to confirm that trees record dry and wet years in their rings.

His procedure for the cross-identification of ring patterns for “absolute” dating then made him famous.

Douglass put his methodology to use in the Southwest by determining when construction began at Chaco Canyon, the spiritual and cultural center of the Ancestral Puebloans in what is now New Mexico. While trees are scant in the desert, the arid environment keeps them well preserved even after they die. Douglass examined tree rings found in the fragments of intact timbers and ancient charcoal on the site and concluded that the archaeological ruins dated to A.D. 919.

At its start in the 1930s — with Douglass as its first director — the lab was “temporarily” housed willy-nilly under the bleachers of the Wildcats’ football stadium. And there it stayed for eight decades, even as the collection amassed by Douglass and other dendrochronologists grew exponentially.

Not until 2013 did the specimens get a permanent, true laboratory home, in a building designed with a round core, like a tree trunk, and a facade resembling the branches of a native paloverde tree.

The heart of the facility is the archive of 600,000 slices and cores of trees and 100,000 clumps of ring-readable charcoal, all properly wrapped, boxed, labeled, catalogued and stored in enclosed metal stacks. A room beyond the stacks contains larger cuts, some the size of a young child’s play trampoline. The earthy smell and rich, dark colors there make for a splendid space.

The lab played a key role in a recent study on the 22-year drought that Western states are suffering. Researchers at the University of California at Los Angeles concluded that the crisis is a historic megadrought — the worst in 1,200 years, a time frame validated by the tree-ring data.

Only researchers can access the lab’s collection now, but an electronic version will go online this year and allow public searches of the database, according to curator Peter Brewer. “We’re getting it ready for the future,” he said.

Dendrochronologists no longer take axes and chain saws to trees to find the best slices for their investigations. Instead, they use a slim metal increment borer that slides into a trunk and removes a drinking-straw-size sliver of wood. This approach poses no risk to their subject’s well-being.

Valerie Trouet has tromped into remote forests in Tanzania and Siberia in search of ever more data. “People always ask if I love trees,” said Trouet, a professor at the University of Arizona lab and a dendrochronologist with a degree in bioscience engineering. “I do, but I especially love wood.”

She and a team with members from Germany, Switzerland, Bulgaria and Belgium have been studying tree-ring data spanning eight centuries to reconstruct changes in the movement of the jet stream, the fast-moving winds at a height of five to 10 miles in the atmosphere that blow west to east around the globe.

“The jet stream orchestrates what happens climate-wise on Earth’s surface,” Trouet said.

Their initial work, focusing on 300 years of data, showed that increased fluctuations in the jet stream have occurred over Europe since the 1960s. They’re now hoping to determine whether those fluctuations and the extreme weather they triggered were historically anomalous or something more ominous.

“What’s cool about Europe,” Trouet noted, “is that it has a long history of documenting societal disruptions, famines, grain harvests, epidemics.”

The question she hopes to answer: Is human-fueled climate change now implicated?

Rings reveal this centuries-old tree’s age, with thin ones marking drier years and wide ones, wetter years. (Cassidy Araiza for The Washington Post)

Of all the lab’s research, the most intensely personal work is about protecting living trees from increasingly massive and destructive wildfires — the kind certain to put Western states even more at risk in coming years.

Beginning in the 1970s, Swetnam and lab colleague Chris Baisan began examining fire-scarred trees and their rings in forests throughout the West for answers to underlying conditions, long-term effects and possible remedies for these monstrous blazes.

Their work has resulted in an ever-expanding chronology of fire history culled from more than 1,000 sites in Western national forests and parks.

This record provides forest managers with a “fire regime,” as Swetnam calls it, that details “evidence of the frequency, seasonal timing, severity and extent of past fires.” Fire regimes help guide forest management and restoration — the before-and-after requirements of future forest health.

“At every level, down to the cell and up to the scale of a giant sequoia, trees are awesome creatures,” Swetnam said, adding, “As gratifying as it is to see my science making such an impact, on the other hand it’s like, oh my God, the message is so worrisome.”

ATTACHMENT EIGHTEEN – From the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

SUMMARY FOR POLICYMAKERS OF IPCC SPECIAL REPORT ON GLOBAL WARMING OF 1.5°C APPROVED BY GOVERNMENTS (10/18/2018)

Incheon, Republic of Korea, October 8 – Limiting global warming to 1.5°C would require rapid, far-reaching and unprecedented changes in all aspects of society, the IPCC said in a new assessment. With clear benefits to people and natural ecosystems, limiting global warming to 1.5°C compared to 2°C could go hand in hand with ensuring a more sustainable and equitable society, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) said on Monday.

The Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C was approved by the IPCC on Saturday in Incheon, Republic of Korea. It will be a key scientific input into the Katowice Climate Change Conference in Poland in December, when governments review the Paris Agreement to tackle climate change.

“With more than 6,000 scientific references cited and the dedicated contribution of thousands of expert and government reviewers worldwide, this important report testifies to the breadth and policy relevance of the IPCC,” said Hoesung Lee, Chair of the IPCC.

Ninety-one authors and review editors from 40 countries prepared the IPCC report in response to an invitation from the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) when it adopted the Paris Agreement in 2015.

The report’s full name is Global Warming of 1.5°C, an IPCC special report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty.

“One of the key messages that comes out very strongly from this report is that we are already seeing the consequences of 1°C of global warming through more extreme weather, rising sea levels and diminishing Arctic sea ice, among other changes,” said Panmao Zhai, Co-Chair of IPCC Working Group I.

The report highlights a number of climate change impacts that could be avoided by limiting global warming to 1.5°C compared to 2°C, or more. For instance, by 2100, global sea level rise would be 10 cm lower with global warming of 1.5°C compared with 2°C. The likelihood of an Arctic Ocean free of sea ice in summer would be once per century with global warming of 1.5°C, compared with at least once per decade with 2°C. Coral reefs would decline by 70-90 percent with global warming of 1.5°C, whereas virtually all (> 99 percent) would be lost with 2°C.

“Every extra bit of warming matters, especially since warming of 1.5°C or higher increases the risk associated with long-lasting or irreversible changes, such as the loss of some ecosystems,” said Hans-Otto Pörtner, Co-Chair of IPCC Working Group II.

Limiting global warming would also give people and ecosystems more room to adapt and remain below relevant risk thresholds, added Pörtner. The report also examines pathways available to limit warming to 1.5°C, what it would take to achieve them and what the consequences could be. “The good news is that some of the kinds of actions that would be needed to limit global warming to 1.5°C are already underway around the world, but they would need to accelerate,” said Valerie Masson-Delmotte, Co-Chair of Working Group I.

The report finds that limiting global warming to 1.5°C would require “rapid and far-reaching” transitions in land, energy, industry, buildings, transport, and cities. Global net human-caused emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) would need to fall by about 45 percent from 2010 levels by 2030, reaching ‘net zero’ around 2050. This means that any remaining emissions would need to be balanced by removing CO2 from the air.

“Limiting warming to 1.5°C is possible within the laws of chemistry and physics but doing so would require unprecedented changes,” said Jim Skea, Co-Chair of IPCC Working Group III.

Allowing the global temperature to temporarily exceed or ‘overshoot’ 1.5°C would mean a greater reliance on techniques that remove CO2 from the air to return global temperature to below 1.5°C by 2100. The effectiveness of such techniques are unproven at large scale and some may carry significant risks for sustainable development, the report notes.

“Limiting global warming to 1.5°C compared with 2°C would reduce challenging impacts on ecosystems, human health and well-being, making it easier to achieve the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals,” said Priyardarshi Shukla, Co-Chair of IPCC Working Group III.

The decisions we make today are critical in ensuring a safe and sustainable world for everyone, both now and in the future, said Debra Roberts, Co-Chair of IPCC Working Group II.

“This report gives policymakers and practitioners the information they need to make decisions that tackle climate change while considering local context and people’s needs. The next few years are probably the most important in our history,” she said.

The IPCC is the leading world body for assessing the science related to climate change, its impacts and potential future risks, and possible response options.

The report was prepared under the scientific leadership of all three IPCC working groups. Working Group I assesses the physical science basis of climate change; Working Group II addresses impacts, adaptation and vulnerability; and Working Group III deals with the mitigation of climate change.

The Paris Agreement adopted by 195 nations at the 21st Conference of the Parties to the UNFCCC in December 2015 included the aim of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change by “holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.”

As part of the decision to adopt the Paris Agreement, the IPCC was invited to produce, in 2018, a Special Report on global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways. The IPCC accepted the invitation, adding that the Special Report would look at these issues in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty.

Global Warming of 1.5°C is the first in a series of Special Reports to be produced in the IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Cycle. Next year the IPCC will release the Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate, and Climate Change and Land, which looks at how climate change affects land use.

The Summary for Policymakers (SPM) presents the key findings of the Special Report, based on the assessment of the available scientific, technical and socio-economic literature relevant to global warming of 1.5°C.

The Summary for Policymakers of the Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C (SR15) is available at https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15 or www.ipcc.ch.

Key statistics of the Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C

91 authors from 44 citizenships and 40 countries of residence
– 14 Coordinating Lead Authors (CLAs)
– 60 Lead authors (LAs)
– 17 Review Editors (REs)

133 Contributing authors (CAs)
Over 6,000 cited references
A total of 42,001 expert and government review comments
(First Order Draft 12,895; Second Order Draft 25,476; Final Government Draft: 3,630)

For more information, contact:
IPCC Press Office, Email: ipcc-media@wmo.int
Werani Zabula +41 79 108 3157 or Nina Peeva +41 79 516 7068

Notes for editors

The Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5 °C, known as SR15, is being prepared in response to an invitation from the 21st Conference of the Parties (COP21) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in December 2015, when they reached the Paris Agreement, and will inform the Talanoa Dialogue at the 24th Conference of the Parties (COP24). The Talanoa Dialogue will take stock of the collective efforts of Parties in relation to progress towards the long-term goal of the Paris Agreement, and to inform the preparation of nationally determined contributions. Details of the report, including the approved outline, can be found on the report page. The report was prepared under the joint scientific leadership of all three IPCC Working Groups, with support from the Working Group I Technical Support Unit.

What is the IPCC?
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is the UN body for assessing the science related to climate change. It was established by the United Nations Environment Programme (UN Environment) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) in 1988 to provide policymakers with regular scientific assessments concerning climate change, its implications and potential future risks, as well as to put forward adaptation and mitigation strategies. It has 195 member states.

IPCC assessments provide governments, at all levels, with scientific information that they can use to develop climate policies. IPCC assessments are a key input into the international negotiations to tackle climate change. IPCC reports are drafted and reviewed in several stages, thus guaranteeing objectivity and transparency.

The IPCC assesses the thousands of scientific papers published each year to tell policymakers what we know and don’t know about the risks related to climate change. The IPCC identifies where there is agreement in the scientific community, where there are differences of opinion, and where further research is needed. It does not conduct its own research.

To produce its reports, the IPCC mobilizes hundreds of scientists. These scientists and officials are drawn from diverse backgrounds. Only a dozen permanent staff work in the IPCC’s Secretariat.

The IPCC has three working groups: Working Group I, dealing with the physical science basis of climate change; Working Group II, dealing with impacts, adaptation and vulnerability; and Working Group III, dealing with the mitigation of climate change. It also has a Task Force on National Greenhouse Gas Inventories that develops methodologies for measuring emissions and removals.

IPCC Assessment Reports consist of contributions from each of the three working groups and a Synthesis Report. Special Reports undertake an assessment of cross-disciplinary issues that span more than one working group and are shorter and more focused than the main assessments.

Sixth Assessment Cycle
At its 41st Session in February 2015, the IPCC decided to produce a Sixth Assessment Report (AR6). At its 42nd Session in October 2015 it elected a new Bureau that would oversee the work on this report and Special Reports to be produced in the assessment cycle. At its 43rd Session in April 2016, it decided to produce three Special Reports, a Methodology Report and AR6.

The Methodology Report to refine the 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories will be delivered in 2019. Besides Global Warming of 1.5°C, the IPCC will finalize two further special reports in 2019: the Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate and Climate Change and Land: an IPCC special report on climate change, desertification, land degradation, sustainable land management, food security, and greenhouse gas fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems. The AR6 Synthesis Report will be finalized in the first half of 2022, following the three working group contributions to AR6 in 2021.

For more information, including links to the IPCC reports, go to: www.ipcc.ch

ATTACHMENT NINETEEN – From Time

EXTREME HEAT IS HITTING COMPANIES WHERE IT HURTS

BY JUSTIN WORLAND JULY 13, 2023 12:34 PM EDT

It’s hot out there and getting hotter. The last few weeks have brought some of the highest temperatures on record at great cost to human health and wellbeing. For a moment, the office air conditioning can feel like a refuge from the extremes outside, but it may be time for businesses to start feeling the heat.

At the heart of the issue is what climate experts call “physical risk.” This term is somewhat self explanatory. The physical effects of climate change pose a physical risk to businesses’ assets and operations—think of hurricanes, wildfires, and flooding, to name a few. These extreme weather events are financially material, and hurt the bottom line. A 2021 report from Impax Asset Management Group found that two-thirds of large companies globally have at least one asset highly exposed to the physical risk of climate change; it’s likely the share of at-risk companies has grown since then.

“This is actually going to touch every sector,” Brian Deese, recently President Biden’s top economic advisor, told me in 2020 when he was the global head of sustainable investing at Blackrock. “Those risks, while they do accelerate out into the future, are more pressing on the market today than most market participants understand.”

Phenomena like fires and floods may be the most obvious example of physical risk, but heat falls into the same bucket. Indeed, a 2021 Moody’s report identified heat stress as one of two physical risks that affect almost every sector. In agriculture, heat can kill crops. That harms retailers, too, who are dependent on crops in their supply chain. For the travel industry, extreme heat can shift consumer demand—making some destinations desirable and others anathema. Across many sectors, heat stress makes it more difficult—and at times impossible—for employees to work outside.

A quick look at financial disclosures shows many big companies are already noting heat as a material financial risk to their operations. Walmart, for example, says the company is vulnerable to rising costs of cooling its massive facilities; Disney says excessive heat may affect demand for its tourism products.

And, if the direct impact on individual businesses weren’t enough, there’s also a macro effect to consider: a significant body of research now shows that extreme heat is a drag on the global economy. A study published in the journal Science Advances found that human-caused extreme heat cost the global economy as much as $29 trillion between 1992 and 2013. A different study from the Climate Impact Lab found that higher temperatures could reduce the average income globally by nearly a quarter by 2100 compared to a no-climate-change scenario.

Where does this all leave companies? Those with adequate resources are building programs to address heat risk. Walmart, for example, is assessing its supply chain to ensure it can bounce back from extreme weather—including heat stress—as part of a comprehensive climate program.

Beyond the week-to-week, month-to-month impact of heat, it’s also important to consider the role businesses can play in avoiding the worst possible heat. By cutting their own carbon emissions—and pushing a bigger societal shift toward a low-carbon economy—companies not only protect their own growth prospects but also the wellbeing of all of society.

Heat even impacts Hot Sauce! See: Got Sriracha? The price for a bottle of Huy Fong’s iconic hot sauce gets spicy with supplies short

ATTACHMENT TWENTY – From the Washington Post

EARTH IS AT ITS HOTTEST IN THOUSANDS OF YEARS. HERE’S HOW WE KNOW.

Observations are enough to make scientists confident that the current period of warming is exceptional

By Scott Dance July 8, 2023 at 6:00 a.m. EDT

Observations from both satellites and the Earth’s surface are indisputable — the planet has warmed rapidly over the past 44 years. As far back as 1850, data from weather stations all over the globe make clear the Earth’s average temperature has been rising.

In recent days, as the Earth has reached its highest average temperatures in recorded history, scientists have made a bolder claim: It may well be warmer than any time in the last 125,000 years.

Tracing climatic fluctuations back centuries and millennia is less simple and precise than checking records from satellites or thermometers. It involves poring through everything from ancient diaries to lake bed sediments to tree trunk rings.

But the observations are enough to make paleoclimatologists, who study the Earth’s climate history, confident that the current decade of warming is exceptional relative to any period since before the last ice age, about 125,000 years ago.

Our understanding of conditions so long ago is far less detailed than modern climate data, meaning it’s impossible to prove how hot it might have gotten on any given day so many thousands of years ago. Still, the Earth history gleaned from fossils and ice cores shows the recent heat would have been all but impossible over most of those millennia.

“There’s no way to drop one hot day into the middle of the ice age,” Richard Alley, a geosciences professor at Pennsylvania State University, said.

If climate records are like a cassette tape, the tape gets fuzzier and fuzzier the older they get, Peter Thorne, a professor at Maynooth University in Ireland, explained. But even the oldest tapes make a sound.