the *DON* JONES INDEX…
		GAINS POSTED in GREEN LOSSES POSTED in RED 9/25/23... 14,898.83 9/18/23... 14,902.16
	6/27/13… 15,000.00
*(THE DOW* JONES INDEX: 9/25/23... 33,963.84; 9/18/23... 34,593.91; 6/27/13… 15,000.00)**

LESSON for September 25th, 2023 – “THE REPUBLICANS’ BIG NUMBER TWO!”

If you are one of those fortunate-unfortunates not to have access (or subjugation, as it were) to the Fox News Channel, and if you turn in to Ordinary Fox on Wednesday night at 9 PM (EST), you will not see a contingent herpestocracy of Republican candidates for President explaining and declaiming why they should be President. You will see, instead, the premiere of one of those new reality/gameshow timekillers as have suppurated since the actors’ and writers’ strikes… yet another take on the takes on the tales of the old “To Tell the Truth” or “$64,000 Question” genre; this one hosted by former SNL comedian David Spade, and entitled: “Snake Oil”.

Will the millions tune in to Fox Basic, expecting confrontations between Will Hurd (if he qualifies) and Vivek Ramaswamy on abortion, the border or Congress shutting down the government? Yes.

Will they be puzzled and eventually enraged. Also yes. Even Americans of moderate intelligence cannot see the words “political debate” and “snake oil” without making the obvious connections. The Zap-2-It site (a useful online TV guide despite exclusion of most of the substation networks like Antenna, Me or Grit) describes Wednesday night’s premiere as follows…

“David Spade hosts "Snake Oil," a game show that challenges contestants to choose a pair of entrepreneurs and learn about their extremely unique (and often bizarre) products through visuals, a custom-made infomercial exclusively produced for the show, and by quizzing the business representative themselves. With the help of their celebrity advisors, the contestants must then decide who is selling an authentic product and who is hawking a sham. Correctly guessing the real deal gives the contestants the chance to win life-changing money.”

Don Jones may be forgiven his enthusiasm and anticipation in believing that “celebrity advisors” might include the likes of, for example, Rob Portman or Michelle Obama.

Instead, Fox Basic viewers get Rob Riggle and Michelle Williams.

Sic simper ignoramii...

As of Friday last, the Fox News sponsored Republican showdown at the Ronald Reagan Library in Simi Valley, California officially featured six* Americans, each of whom believes that he... or she... is better suited to lead the nation into the multitudinal crises past, pending and upcoming that 2025 will bring. To tell the truth... literally, this time, the thundering herd of politicians at this Number Two debate are racing and bellowing to reach Number Two in the polls – being that most experts (and, even, the expert experts) agree that only a sole, single challenger will be able to approach former President Trump’s long, long lead in the minds and the hearts and the polls, whereas the Once and Future has led Governor Ron DeSantis (R-Fl), his nearest challenger, by thirty to fifty points all year, with the remainder trailing even further behind as of Friday (see RCP, Attachment One and the Washington Post poll, Attachments One-A and Twenty One).

Also, as of Friday, there were six fortunate aspirants for the honor of last man (or woman) standing in Djonald UnCatchable’s shadow... and maybe even show enough deference to be chosen as his running mate (Mike Pence, of course, excluded).

These contestants on Wednesday’s political pageant at the Reagan Library have earned their right to inclusion based on fulfillment of a short list of qualifiers/disqualifiers established by the Republican National Committee after what many called a complicated and chaotic first debate in Milwaukee. Two more office-seekers were on the bubble; one survived, the other didn’t... see below.

“There’s good news and bad news about the second Republican presidential debate,” we were advised by Bill Goodykoontz of the Arizona Republic

“The good news is that it can hardly be worse than the first one, which was an exercise in childish antics and running roughshod over the moderators.

“The bad news is that it’s difficult to see how it can be much better.”

Cynical, perhaps, but, given the elephant not in the room, as Fox News’ Bret Baier put it in the first debate, remains (or doesn’t) Donald Trump, who “skipped out on the first debate to whine on X with Tucker Carlson” the political junkies and just plain bored Americans will have to take their drama where they can get it.

Which means more of what GoodyDeanKoontz depicted as a first debate horrorshow – images like DeSantis, looking around the stage at the other candidates before answering a question about who would support Trump as the GOP candidate, even if Trump was convicted of any of the crimes he's been indicted on, Ramaswamy, who “did everything but give Pence a wedgie on stage” or the candidates’ take on Oliver Anthony’s hit song “Rich Men North of Richmond.”

(Answer to above: they did, and they are... except for Haley, who is a rich woman.)

So – where’s the drama, as the lady selling meet used to ask of the likes of Walter Mondale?

“Time is beginning to run out for Trump’s rivals, and they will need to make some noise during the second debate,” ventured Ed Kilgore of New York Magazine. (Attachment Three) Trump himself is planning some “counterprogramming”: a speech in Detroit to “over 500 workers, with his campaign planning to fill the room with plumbers, pipe-fitters, electricians, as well as autoworkers,” according to the New York Times.

One may well be able to gauge the likelihood of any of the Second Tier Six pulling an upset and knocking the paper crown off Djonald’s head when the ratings are in.

Even for the Select Six, “a shrinking field brings an uncomfortable truth ahead of next debate” warned on CNN (Friday, September 22, Attachment Four)

For those on stage, “the theme of the debate is resiliency,” especially as that shrinking field increasingly (faces) that uncomfortable truth.

“It’s a winnow-the-field moment,” Republican strategist Cam Savage told CNN. “Now obviously it will be somewhat winnowed (compared) to the last one just based on the conditions of entrants, but that’s not really what people are talking about. What people are talking about is ‘are any of these candidates going to break out and how is the field going to winnow?”

Going into the first debate, CNN’s David Strauss laid out the savage truth: the lesser-known candidates were hoping for a breakout moment and the windfall of attention and donations that usually comes with it. “Ramaswamy and Haley, in particular, have been enjoying the polling bumps and donations that come with a standout performance,” he allowed, but the RNC rising expectations rules are going to winnow the minnows from the pond – leaving, perhaps, only one smelt left to face the killer whale that is Trump.

“I wouldn’t say oxygen is running out but obviously the clock is ticking. Obviously we’re moving closer to January,” said Republican strategist Jay Williams, a nod to when the Iowa Republican caucuses are set to take place.

(Sunday’s WashPost poll also ranked the candidates’ prospects in the early primary states of Iowa and New Hampshire.)

The real danger for the candidates is to have a “backsliding” moment, Savage added. DeSantis, for instance, can’t afford to “hover in the background of the debate” as he did last time.

To speak and to see and be seen, heard and judged, the Unit Six (plus two?) has had to follow the RNC dictates as were laid down and reported by most media outlets, no matter their slant. Those numerical qualifiers enumerated by Axios (September 19^th, Attachment Five) were these...

Participants in the debate need to show they have at least 50,000 unique donors, including at least 200 donors each from 20 states or territories.

And...

They also need at least 3% of support in two qualifying national surveys, or in one national poll and two polls from competitive early primary states. The polls must have been conducted since Aug. 1.

Further, they had to sign (or, perhaps, sing) their support of the eventual nominee (even if he’s in prison and the song is “Jailhouse Rock”), which has proven to be the kill shot for former President Trumps participation (if not his campaign, which is choogling along quite choogly, thank you) and is also obstructing the presence of Hurd (otherwise 86’d due to failure to meet the two requirements above.

CBS, Attachment Six, also broadcast and set down a somewhat expanded précis of the voluminous and complicated RNC rules, explaining that: “(t)he threshold for the second debate is higher than it was for the first. Candidates must poll at 3% in two national polls or 3% in one national poll and 3% in one early state poll from two separate early-voting states — Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, South Carolina — recognized by the Republican National Committee. For the first debate, the polling requirement was 1% in the same poll categories.

“Polls must have been conducted on or after Aug. 1, and candidates have until 48 hours before the debate to meet the polling requirement.

“Candidates will also need to have a minimum of 50,000 unique donors to their principal presidential campaign committee or exploratory committee, with at least 200 unique donors per state or territory in more than 20 states and/or territories. That's an increase of 10,000 unique donors over the 40,000 required to make it onstage for the first primary debate.”

What the RNC meant by unique donors remains unclear, however, as of today there appeared to be no trolls emerging from their caverns and crevasses to challenge any of the Select Six on this basis.

CBS also reported Trump’s response to why he did not participate in the first debate...

“You see the polls have come out, I'm leading by 50 and 60 points. And some of them are at one and zero and two. And I'm saying, 'Do I sit there for an hour or two hours, whatever it's going to be and get harassed by people that shouldn't even be running for president? Should I be doing that? And a network that isn't particularly friendly, frankly.'"

The Select Six candidates told TIME and other outlets that they expect to appear onstage on Wednesday. (September 22, Attachment Seven... excerpts in RED.) One of those other outlets, USA Today also assessed their performances in the first debate and prospects for the second, their excerpts in BLUE. (No implications are to be assumed upon the political leanings of either moderate-to-liberal mediu.)

Links within those excerpts are noted in GREEN. Compilations from other sources follow in plain, old blackfa... uh... just black...

In order of their standings at the most recent polls (Attachment One, above), the candidates’ features, faith, failings and foibles – as depicted and enumerated by more of those “other outlets” are...

Ron DeSantis – Governor of Florida

The Leader of the Pack (of second-tier rats), Saint Ron polls worse than Haley or Scott and barely ties Rama in a New Hampshire head to head poll with President Joe. (Being New Hampshire all, of course, trail... see Attachment One). CNN interviewed Cam Savage (Attachment Two) who said that “in terms of the on-the-ground in the early states, it seems like DeSantis is perfectly in second place,” but, opined Time, “...his standing in the polls has fallen and he did not see a bounce in support after the last debate.”

Further, noted Time: Florida Governor Ron DeSantis has been viewed for most of the year as Trump’s chief rival for the nomination. But his standing in the polls has fallen and he did not see a bounce in support after the last debate.

And USA Today: DeSantis didn't take swings at Trump during the first debate, but he could take aim at the Republican frontrunner next week.

Vivek Ramaswamy – Businessman

Time also reported that the 38-year-old techie troublemaker “is still polling near the top of the field and will again stand center stage next to DeSantis” in Simi Valley while Arizona Central, taking note of his catfights with Haley and Pence, termed him “an annoying frat bro.”

Biotech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, the right-wing, uber-wealthy author of Woke, Inc., became the focus of attacks during the first Republican debate last month, with his opponents slamming his lack of experience and his foreign policy positions. But the 38-year-old is still polling near the top of the field and will again stand center stage next to DeSantis.

Ramaswamy is also expected to be center stage again over his lack of political experience and recent controversial comments on Ukraine aid, ending H-1B visas and more.

Nikki Haley – Former U.N. Ambassador, former Governor of South Carolina

Facing inquiries about her candidacy in Milwaukee, and especially the likelihood of futility standing in the shadows of The Donald, Haley responded with “a measured, yet sharpened, critique of Mr. Trump and his administration — the good, the bad, and with some subtlety, the ugly. (New York Times, September 22, Attachment Ten)

“Time does funny things. My thought will be that he was the right president at the right time,” she said, later making clear, “I don’t think he is the right president now.”

The rewards of her stellar Milwaukee “show” have been statistical... the polls... and tangible: “donors who had been waiting on the sidelines for a Trump alternative to emerge were coalescing behind her,” according to (unnamed) fund raisers. Haley has also “continued to burnish her foreign policy credentials, criticize Republicans on spending — which played well in the first debate — and call for a change in generational leadership.”

On the road in New Hampshire, the Times reported that Ms. Haley laid out her economic priorities, including eliminating the federal gas and diesel tax, ending green energy subsidies, overhauling social security and Medicare for younger people and withholding the pay of Congress members if they fail to pass a budget.

Her views resonate with Peanut Galleriesi in the critical first two primary states. “I like her fast thinking and proactive ideas,” Nancy Wauters, 67, a retired medical office support staffer told the Times.

However, the Shadow of Trump loomed large over Barbara Miller, 64, a retired banker, at Ms. Haley’s event in Portsmouth. “But I just feel that Donald Trump is the stronger, more electable candidate.”

Haley’s position in the polls has risen since her standout performance in the first presidential debate last month. Since the first debate, she has climbed to third in some national polls.

With Haley surpassing Pence in some national polls after her performance during the first GOP debate, she will likely face more attacks from her rivals in the upcoming event. A recent poll from CNN found that Haley would have the best chance of beating Biden in a hypothetical match-up.

Mike Pence – Former Vice President

Still unhanged, he polls slightly ahead of Biden in head-to-heads, slightly behind in others. Time downplays his promises to run on a promise to “restore American values and enact the most anti-abortion policy he can”, noting that he is “picking up little traction as he continues to poll in the single digits.”

The former Veep, long known for his evangelical faith and his close ties to the religious right, also had several standout moments during the last debate... (he) is continuing to run on a promise to restore American values and enact the most anti-abortion policy he can, though he is picking up little traction as he continues to poll in the single digits.

In “skirmishes” with Ramaswamy in Milwaukee, Pence, who has called for more traditional conservatism has repeatedly said “this no time for on the job training.”

Chris Christie – Former Governor of New Jersey

The New York Times reported that the former New Jersey governor and Never Trumpeter, who is staking his candidacy on New Hampshire, said in an interview that he would not let Trump get away “with being a coward.”

Christie has been Trump’s most vocal critic in the Republican presidential field. He was booed at the last debate when he criticized the former President and became one of only two candidates who said they would not support him if he is convicted of crimes, even if he was the GOP nominee.

Christie is expected to bring his anti-Trump perspective to the stage while also relying on his experience as a former prosecutor to talk about Trump’s indictments.

Tim Scott – Senator from South Carolina

Despite lagging in the polls since he launched his presidential bid four months ago, South Carolina Senator Tim Scott sounded almost like a frontrunner on Wednesday when asked at a New Hampshire campaign stop who might be on his shortlist for running mates. (Time, September 29, Attachment Eleven)

He served up a charcuterie board of possibilities: “Trey Gowdy, a TV pundit and fellow South Carolinian who served in the House until 2019 (Potentially Illegal? See this!); John Ratcliffe, a former Texas congressman who was Director of National Intelligence for less than a year during the Trump administration; New Hampshire Governor Chris Sununu; and Trump-era Secretary of State Mike Pompeo.”

Scott, who didn’t have a breakout moment at the first debate, is seeking a placement change on stage, according to Axios, likely trying to garner more buzz with his performance.

But with Scott polling around fifth place in national polls and in-state surveys, even some of his supporters are skeptical his campaign will ever need that list.

The Hopefuls

USA Today also reported on those two candidates on the “bubble” between inclusion and exclusion.

North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum has said he is “fully confident” he will qualify for the second debate in an interview last month. While he has met the donor threshold, he may still need to clear polling hurdles.

He has 0.2% of support in Republican primary polls, according to an average calculated by Real Clear Politics. However, a Politico analysis found that Burgum has reached at least 3% in one state poll. (He has shoveled millions of his own money into both early and later primary states, touting himself as a real conservative.)

Former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson said in an interview with KHBS-TV that he is close to making the second debate.

"My goodness, I think we had almost 4,000 new donors just on the night of the debate from all over the country," he said, referring to the first GOP debate. He also said he made three percent in one national poll and he’s going to keep “marching on.”

After eking their way into the first Republican presidential debate last month, this dynamic duo of Milwaukee candidates appeared to be in jeopardy of failing to qualify for the party’s second debate next week.

Both, noted the New York Times (September 20, Attachment Twelve) “have been registering support in the low single digits in national polls and in the polls from early nominating states that the Republican National Committee uses to determine eligibility.”

Mr. Burgum, the former software executive, is also harnessing his wealth to introduce himself to Republicans through television — and at considerable expense. Since the first debate, a super PAC aligned with him has booked about $8 million in national broadcast, live sports and radio advertising, including a $2 million infusion last week, according to Mr. Burgum’s campaign, which is a separate entity. His TV ads appeared during Monday Night Football on ESPN.

Lance Trover, a spokesman for the Burgum campaign, contended in an email on Wednesday that Mr. Burgum was still positioned to qualify for the debate. Mr. Hutchinson’s campaign did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

“While debate stages are nice, we know there is no such thing as a national primary,” Mr. Trover said in a statement, adding, “Voters in Iowa and New Hampshire are the real people that narrow the field.”

Mr. Burgum’s campaign reported a “secret plan” to give him a boost just before the debate, Mr. Trover added, targeting certain Republicans and conservative-leaning independents through video text messages.

Both candidates resorted to some “unusual tactics” to qualify for the first debate, the Times recalls.

“Mr. Burgum offered $20 gift cards to anyone who gave at least $1 to his campaign, while Politico reported that Mr. Hutchinson had paid college students for each person they could persuade to contribute to his campaign.”

The Times also reported that some of Mr. Trump’s harshest critics in the G.O.P. have stepped up calls for the party’s bottom-tier candidates to leave the crowded race, “consolidating support for a more viable alternative to the former president.”

Most of these have their own suggestion – either themselves or their paymasters.

Note: see Update above.

The Excludables

Perhaps a dozen other validated Presidential wannabees (and hundreds more deluded dreamers) have been haunting candidates’ nights (particularly in Iowa and New Hampshire) and begging for cash from increasingly restive donors... some of the more capricious, controversial or colorful being Elder (but not elder statesman Mike Gravel), Binkley (not Hinckley), (the unseen) Hurd, and the rest.

None of the candidates who failed to make the cut for the first debate looked like prospects to get into the second, so NY Mag’s Kilgore bid them adios... one candidate actually (Miami mayor Francis Suarez, has already dropped out). “Another, Will Hurd, has categorically refused to sing (sic – and the voters would probably love all of the candidates doing that – DJI) the loyalty pledge, while another, Perry Johnson, has met the donor requirement, but is largely invisible in the polls.”

As for the rest... Larry Elder, Ryan Binkley, Mitt, Jeffy... don’t, Don Jones recommends, let the door whack you on the backside on your way to the way back machine to from where you came.

It means a lot to perform well at the debate if you make it, declared NBC (September 19, Attachment Nine). “We’ve seen Haley’s national poll numbers go up after her aggressive performance, while we’ve seen Scott’s go down after his quiet debut.”

As in the recent G-20 summit (and also by reason of not having been born within the United States), Mad Vlad Putin and President Xi will also not be on hand – being otherwise occupied in Moscow and Beijing. But they, or people whom they’ve hired... spies or sympathizers with access to Fox News and points right... will be watching, and probably taking notes about which tells which candidates may be giving as to topics of enemy interest like Taiwan and Ukraine, like trade and debt, climate and culture, military prowess and resolution. For centuries, statesmen and... well... other sorts of leaders have understood and followed the teachings of authorities from Sun Tzu to Djonald UnChained to pay attention to your enemies (and those who might, one day, replace them in office, if not in intent), to study and assess their objectives, qualities and weaknesses and, by so doing, gain advantage for their own nations or factions within (or, at least, for themselves).

And lastly... some liberals may call him beastly, but none dare term him leastly... there’s Ol’ 45.

The former President, most of the moderate to liberal to outright leftist media and influencers agree, is running his Grover Cleveland-ish POTUS interrupted campaign upon a platform of grievance and revenge – qualities that resonate with many Americans who feel abandoned and/or betrayed by a shaky and essentially unfair economy (although The Donald and The Rest... and, despite their rhetoric... most Democrats are all firmly wedded to the corporate elites through ideology or cold, hard cash) and even the Greens are hoping a sackful of roubles will bamboozle enough Joneses to complicate, if not win, in 2024.

There is also a highly exploitable crisis at the border (insinuating subtle or overt fears among white working class voters of their being replaced by dark skinned migrants or, even, machines created and deployed by evil and duplicitous scientists no better than the abominable Doctor Fauci), indifference or even hostility to an expensive and prolonged war, an intrusive and corrupt government and the arrogant, privileged wokesters inflicting unGodly (perhaps even Satanic) practices upon their children, not to mention a panoply of spurious and expensive crises ranging from insidiously expensive climate change rules and regulations, to crime in the streets (and the suites), to White Replacement-ish affirmative action figures and those Human-Replacement-ish AI employers... now growing all the more nervous over the Hollywood slide towards settlements. The interim worker shortage has plenty of good, right wing Democrats and clandestine Republicans promoting work permits for the migrants, desperate enough to brave the border journey and compete with a nativist workforce that cannot afford rent, food, childcare or, in fact, children.

Onward, therefore and forthwith, to what will be the the fifth primary debate held at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in Simi Valley since 2007.

“Why does the Republican National Committee keep coming back to Simi?” inquiring minds want to know.

Because, contends Tom Hollihan, a USC communications professor who studies media and politics and was interviewed by the Ventura County Star (Attachment Thirteen), “Reagan is a Republican party icon and hero.” Hollihan also cited the visual attractions of a debate pavilion that features Reagan’s Air Force One jet and the proximity to Southern California’s media empire.

“Los Angeles is where a lot of news gets produced,” he said. “The assumption is there will be generous news coverage.”

“Will there be protesters?” the Star also asks. “Count on it,” they answered. “John Lapper, Democrat and rally organizer, estimates 100 people will protest what he calls the Republican agenda. Other rallies include a group of Trump supporters with signs bearing Make America Great Again themes. The library will be closed to the public Wednesday and no protesters will be allowed on the grounds.”

A One-Six it will not be.

While the Qualified are prepping for their Rumble at the Reagan, the former President, so far leaving them all in his rear view mirror, poll-wise, has decided to burnish his reputation (such as it is) as the friend of the workers of America, if not the world by kissing off, once again, his invitation to the dance.

And while six sick shrimp express and, perhaps, expose themselves in Simi Valley, Donald Trump will be leaving on a jet plane jaunt to the Motor City in the hope that Big Labor... not the bosses, all firmly behind President Joe from the UAW to the government workers nervously checking their checkbooks against a shutdown, from the steelworkers to battered but unbroken air traffic controllers to Teamsters... but the rank and filers deemedn possibly open to the blandishments of Team Trump).

And the Republican absentee frontrunner is hoping to pull a card from up his sleeve... an Ace (or a King, even a Knave) of Spades (to wax politically incorrect) and a Queen (any colour, any suit).

That’s right, and what might be right with the right. While MAGA is in no danger of slipping away despite the increasingly desperate authoritarian posturing of the Reagan Library guild, the former President “is vowing to be a friend of labor union members, a compatriot defender of Black voters who feel unfairly treated by the criminal justice system, and a sage compromiser who can forge an abortion policy that will please almost everyone.” (US News and World Report, September 22, Attachment Fourteen)

Let Democrats (and some social conservatives) stomp and stammer at what they see as a blatantly political lie or a betrayal of the commitments the former president made when he got elected the first time, “the 2024 candidate is sounding more like the former businessman who (before he ran for the GOP nomination in 2016)” who described himself as "very pro-choice" on abortion and has embraced persons of color (from that damned Barak’s real birthplace in Kenye to Kanye, or “Ye” to convicted Proud Boy Enrique Tarrios) in hopes of making inroads into the traditionally liberal communities that, when they did vote, chalked up significant margins for President Joe and for downballot cancidates (as witness the 2022 midterms).

If elected again, "I would sit down with both sides and I’d negotiate something and we’ll end up with peace on that issue for the first time in 52 years,” Trump said in a recent interview on NBC, amid polling and down-ticket elections showing the GOP is losing ground because of backlash against the 2022 Dobbs ruling undoing Roe.

And pro-choice women disappointed by President Joe and horrified and disgusted by Ron “Six Weeks” DeSantis are one third of Trump’s troika... a three-legged stool, to coin the term, whose other legs are “Black voters, who have long voted overwhelmingly for Democrats but who appear in some recent polling to be moving toward Trump, and labor union members (italics – DJI), whose leadership is fighting to deprive Trump of another term in the White House.

UAW President Shawn Fain has called the prospect of another Trump term "a disaster." U.S. News also solicited dirt from Mary Kay Henry, International president of the Service Employees International Union who cited Trump’s “lies” and Rep. Debbie Dingell (D-Mi) who called Trump “...one of the most anti-worker presidents this country ever had,"

But Trump – claiming that the union leadership is not serving the members – is banking on peeling off rank-and-file support and “making a pitch for Black voters, casting his own arrests and voluminous criminal counts as similar to unfair charges brought against Black defendants.”

It's not surprising they're trying to bust out of the 2020 Trump coalition, because the 2020 Trump coalition is not sufficient for him to win,” longtime Democratic strategist Simon Rosenberg told US News, opining that the pivot “...feels very clumsy and buffoonish," Rosenberg added.

Then again: less than a week later, the WashPost revealed its findings.

"I think Trump, as he has done in the past, has the ability to present himself as a genuine populist" taking on corporate America, even though "as president, of course, he was very much in bed with them," University of Wisconsin-Madison political science professor Howard Schweber foresaw.

"On abortion and labor, he is making very smart moves in a place like (swing-state) Wisconsin," Schweber said.

Trump's “squishier remarks” on abortion, race and labor may have antagonized the far right fringe but, after all, where would they go if, as expected, Woke Djonald swept to his expected primary victories and the Republican nomination.

As we mentioned before, Vladimir Putin (with only the one genocide charge against him by the International Criminal Court) is not eligible to run for, or serve, as President while Trump (with four indictments pending) is. As the wise guys say: “Go big, or go home.”

“Trump's forthcoming trip to Detroit is the latest play in his pitch as an attractive alternative to President Biden, the incumbent Democrat who won the UAW's coveted (if obvious) endorsement in 2020,” seconded NPR (September 19, Attachment Fifteen).

“While the UAW has historically endorsed Democratic candidates, the union has so far declined to endorse Biden in his quest for a second term,” NPR disabused the labor-as-Joe’s-sock-puppet contingent. “The union and its new president, Shawn Fain, have said they need to see more from the president before they make any endorsement,” which raises the question: RFK Junior? Marianne Williamson? Green candidate Cornel West as, perhaps, a Putinistic ploy to win friends among the electric car people and influence Elon Musk?

“(W)ithout a splashy endorsement from the top brass, many union autoworkers are voters (really?) and, in swing states like Michigan, Trump showing up for selfies and handshakes could be just appealing enough to some members of a beleaguered workforce,” NPR correspondent Don Gonyea reminded its membership and, on the larger scale, America.

So President Joe will be off to Detroit to walk the picket line (and hopefully not shamble, or shuffoe or... worst case... fall down) on Tuesday, the day before his projected 2024 adversary also drops in.

"Auto companies have seen record profits, including in the last few years, because of the extraordinary skill and sacrifices of the UAW workers," Biden said. "Those record profits have not been not been shared fairly in my view with those workers."

Michigan... history and NPR reminds us... is a state that got away from Trump in 2020. “After Trump won Michigan narrowly in 2016, part of his stunning victory over former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, Biden flipped the state back to blue.

So blowing off the RNC’s Big Number Two, validates his claim that, because he is a frontrunner in the Republican primary, he does not need to appear alongside the other candidates. In fact, ahead of the first debate, Trump told Tucker Carlson that he did not want to “give attention to other campaigns by standing center stage” and letting his beautiful, beautiful agenda be sullied by debate divas... and wasting two of his precious hours being “harassed by people that shouldn't even be running for president? Should I be doing that?" he asked Carlson.

And the Associated Press, also on September 19^th (Attachment Sixteen) opined that Trump was trying to paint himself as a fighter for the “forgotten men and women” of the working class. He spent much of his victorious 2016 campaign campaigning in Rust Belt towns suffering from the shift away from mining and manufacturing and earlier this year, he visited East Palestine, Ohio, after a train derailment, and traveled to Michigan, where the Oakland County GOP honored him as its Man of the Decade.

Asked about the strike in a recent interview, the Man of the Decade told NBC News that “auto workers will not have any jobs” because “electric cars, automatically, are going to be made in China.

“The auto workers are being sold down the river by their leadership, and their leadership should endorse Trump,” he added.

But Ammar Moussa, a Biden campaign spokesperson, said, in disputing Ol’ 45’s contention (or pretension) that he is friend of the proletariat: “Donald Trump is going to Michigan next week to lie to Michigan workers and pretend he didn’t spend his entire failed presidency selling them out at every turn. Instead of standing with workers, Trump cut taxes for the super-wealthy while auto companies shuttered their doors and shipped American jobs overseas.”

And UAW President Fain responded that: “We can’t keep electing billionaires and millionaires that don’t have any understanding what it is like to live paycheck to paycheck and struggle to get by and expecting them to solve the problems of the working class.”

Maybe, when Trump arrives in Michigan and opens his mouth to orate, the pugnacious Fain will frustrate him by digging a left hook deep into the billionaire’s belly (Djonald’s net worth might be disputable, given all his recent legal expenses) and follow up by clocking him with a right to the chin.

(Trump himself gained praise and notoriety, the both, by beating up former WWE honcho Vince McMahon on national television a few years back, before his political career commenced. But skeptics contend that the triumph... like, perhaps, the vote counting in Georga... was rigged.)

Fox (September 18^th, Attachment Seventeen) also chimed in on the Tuesday and Wednesday dueling dramas, citing Trump’s accusations that Biden was “trying to destroy the car industry by expanding electric cars and other green energy policies,” and repeating the candidate’s broadside against the incumbent on his social media app “Truth”, posting that “The United Autoworkers are being sold down the 'drain' with this all Electric Car SCAM. They'll be made in China, under crooked Joe's CHINA FIRST POLICY.

Then, further, and in all caps, Trump thundered: “AUTOWORKERS, VOTE FOR TRUMP - I'LL MAKE YOU VICTORIOUS & RICH. IF YOUR 'LEADERS' WON'T ENDORSE ME, VOTE THEM OUT OF OFFICE, NOW. WITH THE DEMOCRATS & CROOKED JOE CALLING THE SHOTS, YOU'LL BE JOBLESS & PENNILESS WITHIN 4 YEARS. REMEMBER, BIDEN IS A CROOK WHO HAS BEEN PAID MILLIONS OF DOLLARS BY CHINA, & OTHERS...” before falling back into the calmer, gentler (and cinematic) conclusion...

“He is a Manchurian Candidate!!!"

Even as Joe and Donald do Detroit and the Six Seekers do battle in the Reagan Library to replace them, a third Presidential debate has been or will shortly be announced, according to anonymous “sources” – perhaps in Miami, CNN declared on Friday. (Attachment Eighteen)

Trump is not expected to attend this event either.

Fox also reported on these rumours of mayhem in Miami, adding that the RNC would be seeking to chase away even more pretenders by raising polling and donor thresholds. (Thursday, September 21, Attachment Nineteen)

To participate in the third debate, each candidate must have a minimum of 70,000 unique donors to their campaign or exploratory committee, including 200 donors in 20 or more states. The RNC's debate committee decided on the thresholds during a conference call on Thursday, according to sources with knowledge of the panel's deliberations.

The White House hopefuls must also reach 4% support in two national polls, or reach 4% in one national poll and 4% in two statewide polls conducted in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada or South Carolina — the four states that lead off the Republican presidential nominating calendar.

And, as before, candidates are also required to sign a pledge in which they agree to support the eventual Republican presidential nominee. They must agree not to participate in any non-RNC sanctioned debates for the rest of the 2024 election cycle and agree to data-sharing with the national party committee.

A chart and checklist upon which of the dozen leading aspirants have met the qualifications for moving on to Simi Valley (let alone Miami) can be found here.

North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum and former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson, who qualified for the first debate, had yet to reach the second showdown's thresholds as of publication of the Fox chart and checklist.

Some of the Excludables have challenged the RNC’s polling stipulations, based on a perceived bias in defining which polls are to be counted in determinating candidate eligibility. The RNC has set today as the deadline for compliance with their rules and regulations in order to be allowed onstage Wednesday night and Miami Mayor Francis Suarez, conservative radio talk show host Larry Elder and businessman Perry Johnson all said they qualified for the debate, but the RNC did not recognize their polls, leaving them off the stage.

“Elder said he was told he was not included in the debate because one of the polls that would have helped him qualify was tied to former President Trump’s campaign.” (The Hill, Septmeber 20^th, Attachment Twenty) Hurd, like Hutchinson, won’t be seen... not because he refused to sign The Plege but because his numbers don’t add up and Johson, well, he’s sorta disapparated.

Proto-Excludable Suarez said, ahead of the Milwaukee debate, that candidates who did not qualify should drop out, and... in a rare and refreshing, if doomed, display of honesty, he subsequently left the race a week later.

Over the weekend, the Washington Post poll not only confirmed Trump’s wide lead, it enhanced it

“The Post-ABC poll shows Biden trailing Trump by 10 percentage points at this early stage in the election cycle, although the sizable margin of Trump’s lead in this survey is significantly at odds with other public polls that show the general election contest a virtual dead heat. The difference between this poll and others, as well as the unusual makeup of Trump’s and Biden’s coalitions in this survey, suggest it is probably an outlier.”

The poll also asked people whether, looking back, approve or disapprove of the way Trump handled the job of being president. The result was 48 percent saying they approve and 49 percent saying they disapprove. That 48 percent approval is 10 points better than when he left office in January 2021 and higher than it was through nearly the entirety of his presidency.

Oddly (outlierly?) issues favor President Joe. Nearly two thirds of the voters are pro-choice, and other polls have noted support for climate change. But Biden’s low marks can be attributed to the economy, to immigration and… most troubling… to a renunciation of democracy as shown in the fatigue over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Since the start of the war in February 2022, public opinion has shifted away from supporting the Ukrainians. The current survey finds 41 percent saying the United States is doing too much to help, 31 percent saying it is the right amount and 18 percent saying it is too little. In February, 33 percent said they thought levels of assistance were too much while in April 2022, 14 percent held that view.

All things considered, Trump looks like a winner in 2024. And if he has to run the country from prison… well… that’s another story!

UPDATE: Today, the RNC announced that Gov. Burgum has, indeed qualified for the Reagan Library showdown, meaning the Select Six may now be termed the Lucky Seven. (But most likely only as applies to the race for Veep.

Our Lesson: September Eighteenth through September Twenty Fourth, 2023

Monday, September 18, 2023

Dow: 34,624.30

It’s Climate Week. Prince William comes to America to talk about climate and not talk about the family. Bad climate (Lee damage) being cleaned up in Massachusetts, Maine and Nova Scotia. Hurricane Nigel heads out to see, then to the U.K. to drop in on the family.

And cleanups continue in Maui, Morocco and Libya, where the death toll has finally reached “uncounted”.

Also continuing, U.S. Summer of Strikes nearing fall. The UAW welcomes (but only some of them) Donald Trump, who will hobnob with the proletariat while his rivals debate (above). In Hollywood, the walkouters are still walking the picket lines, but the order of the day is scandal... Bill Maher and Drew Barrymore pivoting on scabbing, Russell Brand (Mr. Katy Perry) accused of sex crimes, media mogul Jann Wenner of racism, Maren Morris quitting country music because of racism and reality show star Julie Chen-Moonves talking about finding God while husband Les was finding other women. She’s written a book, natch.

Rudy G. is in trouble, too... natch... failure to pay his own legal bills.

Tuesday, September 19, 2023

Dow: 34,517.73

It’s National Voter Registration Day. Feds, states and cities rassle over voter suppression, gerrymandering and partisans take sides as President Joe meets President Z. at the U.N. and everybody gives speeches. Lots of speeches. Z. warns diplomats and Republicans that Russia’s real war is “against you” and Biden treats the U.S.A.’s other enemy diplomatically... given the forum... saying America wants “responsible competition” with China.

There are actions, too, to go with the words: the Five Americans see the light of home after being ransomed from Iran for $6B. Republicans howl that the deal will just encourage Tehran to kidnap more Yanks.

Stateside, working women are complaining about the cost of childcare, lawyers are debating over the claim of Delphi, Indiana suspect to have been framed by a cult of Odinistic neo-Nazis, suspect arrested in killing of California deputy Ryan Clinkunbroomer, (Mom says he has mental “issues”) and a sleepless neighbor complaining of a barking dog kills 10 year old boy.

In other animal news, cops round up an escaped pig on Bacon Creek Road in Kentucky.

Wednesday, September 20, 2023

Dow: 34,440.88

It’s a busy day in Washington and in the courtrooms, and on the street. AyGee Merrick Garland testifies before Congress on this and that... mainly Hunter... Sen. Tuberville (R-Al) says he’ll hold up more military promations until the Pentagon reverses itself on gay “marriage”... killer of nine in Chicago killed in Oklahoma car crash... in fooball follies, a high school bandleader tased for prompting the students to play on and a brawl among Dolphins/Patriots fans results in one death... and the Acting President of Temple U. in Philly drops dead onstage during a memorial for his predecessors.

Dirty, druggie day care operator in the Bronx, NY, claims innocence – blames husband who scarpered carryin bags of fentanyl. Fortnite accused of “dark patterns” in merching the online kids. Florida driver killed by the rattlesnake who squatted in his car.

In happier news, Vanna White will re-up for two more years at “Wheel” with new host Ryan Seacrest. Elon Musk development new brain implant technology to cure paralysis.

Thursday, September 21, 2023

Dow: 34,907.11

K-Mac claims “progress” on budget battle, but now revolts against the extremists in his own party who want to “burn the house down.” “Nothing can come,” out of this, Pelosi warns, except “chaos.” Good enough for the MAGA-right.

Autoworkers prepare to receive Djonald UnHandsdirty, the corporations lay off more collateral workers. More talk of “progress” between WGA strikers and studio execs Bob Iger, Ted Saranos and David Zaslev but the actors are still out in the cold. ABC counterprogramming includes more Monday Night Football. And now, book authors are getting uppity about the publishers using AI apps to copy their works, change a few words here and there, and sell it without royalties. George R. R. Martin (Game of Thrones), John Grisham (lawyer books) and some of the popular police and thriller writers are talking lawsuits... real,, not literary.

Media mogul Rupert Murdoch (Fox, NY Post, Wall Street Journal) decides to step down at 92 and let his son Lochlyn take over.

Yet more comi-tragic prison escapes... a child molester in St. Louis strolls out of the hospital while the prison guards assigned to watch him are doing something else (eventually re-captured), and the authorities mistakenly allow a Minnesota murderer to walk free in a case of mistaken identity (still at large).

Friday, September 22, 2023

Dow: 33,963,84

It’s Climate Change Day. The climate on the Atlantic Coast is ominous as Tropical Storm Ophelia heads for Washington DC to meet and greet the Congressthings (who, on the brink of a government shutdown, are taking a long weekend vacation). Too little rain in Seattle, of all places, where residents are being asked to conserve water. President Joe creates a National Climate Corps, also a task force on the “superstorm” of gun violence (to be led by VP Harris).

As evidence of climate change, birdwatchers flock to Lake Michigan, suddenly full of flamingoes. One big, hungry alligator kills and eats a Florida man, others are spotted moving north into Georgia where Plains holds its annual Peanut Festival. Ros and Jimmy (99 next week) Carter attend and the trending food truck treat is... alligator on a stick!

Before going on vacation, the far-right MAGAnoids kill funding for the Department of Defense – even as Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-Al) relents and allows one military chief to be confirmed. They also nix more long range missiles to Ukraine, sending President Zelenskyy home to Kyev with good wishes, but empty pockets, despite statements by pundit Holly Williams that Russia is “a cancer” that has to be removed or “the world will not survive.” Mindful of PR, the Z-Man makes promises of his own to cut down on corruption, arresting 170 officials.

And speaking of corruption, Sen. Bob Menendez (D-NJ) is accused of accepting cash and bars of gold from Egypt. Despite calls for his resignation from the Governor on down, he refuses and says he’s innocent. (The gold just fell off a camel.)

Saturday, September 23, 2023

Dow: (Closed)

And now, the first day of fall.

Ophelia falls on Emerald Isle, NC demolishing, among other things, an Irish Fall Festival and also assorted celebrations featuring dangerous inflatables. Disasters are everywhere: migrant children drowning in the Rio Grande, a family sues Google Maps when they point Dad’s car to a long-broken bridge which he drives off of and drowns and a cyclist raising money for injured cyclists is run over by another car and killed.

Alarmists fear blowing up (or burning down) the government will impact a wide variety of services as K-Mac promises to unveil his Secret Plan when Congress returns from its long weekend off. “Hope you’re enjoying your vacation,” says President Joe, remembering 2018.

The I.R.S. vows to crack down on scalpers garnering huge profits by reselling Taylor Swift concert ticket but... oh, wait... the taxmen will be furloughed too if and when the gumment shuts down.

Sunday, September 24, 2023

Dow: (Closed)

In advance of the Talking Heads’ (weekly) reunion talkfest, the WashPost releases a new poll – solidifying what everybody knows already, former President Trump is far, far ahead of DeSantis and the rest of the pretenders. There is also new information – he leads President Joe 51 to 42%, setting up the delightful possibility that (if convicted in no-pardon Georgia and sentenced to five years), America could enjoy the drama and spectacle of a sitting President commandeering the country from prison.

As to those talking heads, the overwhelming lead Djonald Unchained has against his foes, Republican and Democrat alike, more or less muted even the most vocal critics. Still, they tried...

A wholly left-stacked This Week Round Table. Former DNC Chair Donna Brazile said that Americans are so angry about their lives that they’ll vote for a convicted felon, but Democrats should not yet hide in the “panic room.” Reporters reported that K-Mac’s ultimate and final offer on shutting down the government would be massive tax cuts for the billionaires, service cuts for the peasants, including Social Security and Medicare, a militarized border and no more handouts to Ukraine. But the hard right, calling him weak, pressed for more vital, viral changes... (perhaps an arms and ammo giveaway to Russia?).

Stage right: Rep. Mike Turner (R-Oh) exclaimed that the shutdown was all part of a master plot by Nancy Pelosi to accomplish... something?... while Hutchinson’s precedessor, former Governor Mike Huckabee signed on as a spokespeddler for Relaxium.

In other news, the levee is dry, Miss American Pie, and New Orleans is rationing water as salt invades... but there’s too much water in the Northeast as Ophelia bids farewell... and the WGA strikers claim a settlement is at hand (but not the actors or autoworkers).

And, on the bright side, NASA’s Orbis Rex returns to the Utah desert with asteroid debris that might lead to solution of the Mysteries of the Universe while Usher is announced as lead singer at the Superbowl.

With all the major indices in (except a flat housing market), the Don lay stagnant.

THE DON JONES INDEX

CHART of CATEGORIES w/VALUE ADDED to EQUAL BASELINE of 15,000

(REFLECTING… approximately… DOW JONES INDEX of June 27, 2013)

See a further explanation of categories here…

ECONOMIC INDICES (60%)

CATEGORY	VALUE	BASE	RESULTS			SCORE		OUR SOURCES and COMMENTS
INCOME	(24%)	6/17/13 & 1/1/22	LAST	CHANGE	NEXT	LAST WEEK	THIS WEEK
Wages (hrly. Per cap)	9%	1350 points	9/18/23	+0.07%	10/23	1,461.08	1,461.08	https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/wages 29.02
Median Inc. (yearly)	4%	600	9/18/23	+0.028%	10/2/23	610.90	611.07	http://www.usdebtclock.org/ 36,022 032
Unempl. (BLS – in mi)	4%	600	9/4/23	+7.89%	10/23	600.32	600.32	http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000000/ 3.8 nc
Official (DC – in mi)	2%	300	9/18/23	+0.17%	10/2/23	271.36	270.90	http://www.usdebtclock.org/ 5,868 878
Unofficl. (DC – in mi)	2%	300	9/18/23	-0.47%	10/2/23	289.88	290.73	http://www.usdebtclock.org/ 11,182 130
Workforce Particip. Number Percent	2%	300	9/18/23	+0.034%+0.052%	10/2/23	302.92	303.08	In 161,669 724 Out 99,883 880 Total: 262,552 604 http://www.usdebtclock.org/ 61.576 608
WP % (ycharts)*	1%	150	9/4/23	+0.32%	10/23	151.67	151.67	https://ycharts.com/indicators/labor_force_participation_rate 62.80

OUTGO	15%
Total Inflation	7%	1050	9/18/23	+0.6%	10/23	978.02	978.02	http://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm +0.6
Food	2%	300	9/18/23	+0.2%	10/23	276.55	276.55	http://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm +0.2
Gasoline	2%	300	9/18/23	+10.6 %	10/23	227.87	227.87	http://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm +10.6
Medical Costs	2%	300	9/18/23	+0.1%	10/23	297.86	297.86	http://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm +0.1
Shelter	2%	300	9/18/23	+0.3%	10/23	272.45	272.45	http://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm +0.3
WEALTH	6%
*Dow* Jones Index	2%	300	9/18/23	-1.91%	10/2/23	282.71	277.32	https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/ 33.963.84
Home (Sales) (Valuation)	1% 1%	150 150	9/18/23	-0.74% +0.10%	10/23	127.38 301.09	126.44 301.39	`https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics` Sales (M): 4.07 4.04 Valuations (K): 406.7 407.1
Debt (Personal)	2%	300	9/18/23	+0.037%	10/2/23	275.29	275.19	http://www.usdebtclock.org/ 73,540 571
NATIONAL	(10%)
Revenue (trilns.)	2%	300	9/18/23	-0.17%	10/2/23	365.41	362.80	debtclock.org/ 4,348 342
Expenditures (tr.)	2%	300	9/18/23	+2.24%	10/2/23	327.51	334.85	debtclock.org/ 6,255 118
National Debt tr.)	3%	450	9/18/23	+0.41%	10/2/23	408.89	407.24	http://www.usdebtclock.org/ 32,974 3,108 *(The debt ceiling... now kicked forward to 1/1/25... had* been 31.4. Of late, there have been rumblings and mutterings from Congress, that it should be addressed sooner… like now?)**
Aggregate Debt (tr.)	3%	450	9/18/23	+0.16%	10/2/23	388.22	387.61	http://www.usdebtclock.org/ 102,784 947

GLOBAL	(5%)
Foreign Debt (tr.)	2%	300	9/18/23	+0.04%	10/2/23	325.85	325.72	http://www.usdebtclock.org/ 7,595 598
Exports (in billions)	1%	150	9/23	+1.70%	19/23	156.34	156.34	`https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/current/index.html` 251.7
Imports (bl.)	1%	150	9/23	+1.17%	10/23	172.92	172.92	`https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/current/index.html` 316.7
Trade Deficit (bl.)	1%	150	9//23	+0.77%	10/23	324.45	324.45	`https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/current/index.html` 65.0

SOCIAL INDICES (40%)
ACTS of MAN	12%
World Affairs	3%	450	9/18/23	-0.2%	10/2/23	452.55	451.64	Post G-20 conflict between Canada and India emerges after hitmen kill an émigré Sikh dissident. Kim (not Kardashian) and Bad Vlad Putin exchange hugs and then swap arms and ammo for nuclear secrets, Venezuelan migrants swarm into Eagle Pass, Tx.
War and terrorism	2%	300	9/18/23	-0.3%	10/2/23	293.18	292.30	Chinese planes buzz Taiwan. Armenia/Azari conflict on again. Five Americans ransomed for $6B, but Iran still sending assassins to America as its year’s toll of executions reaches 697.
Politics	3%	450	9/18/23	-0.2%	10/2/23	479.53	478.57	Pols on the run to Detroit: Biden to UAW picket line, Trump to the rank and file as one of his aides in the docs case rats him out, saying he used confidential memos as scrap paper. San Francisco, where police cannot afford to live, fixes its cop deficit by authorizing “Patrol Specials” (i.e. vigilantes) to attack the homeless problem by attacking the homeless.
Economics	3%	450	9/18/23	-0.2%	10/2/23	427.46	426.61	Rupert Murdoch steps down, son Lachlyn will take over Fox and its subsidiaries. Experts say 2023 has the lowest holiday hiring rate since 2008. Gas prices in California hit $7.78/gal, but the Fed will not raise interest rates. Yet. Rite Aid will close 500 underperforming stores, old folks eateries like Olive Garden and Cracker Barrel deemed at risk.
Crime	1%	150	9/18/23	-0.6%	10/2/23	250.49	248.99	Chicago shooters kill family of four in Chicago – and their two little dogs, too! The week’s murders include four in a Califonia restaurant, 3 more in Atlanta. School shootings in Lousville, Tuskegee college, Popeyes worker pops off and fires out the drive in window, Dalphi, Ind. suspect says the real killers of were an “Odinistic cult of neo-Nazi pagans.” America congratulates inmate who kills cellie: a mass murderer of over tweoty women while a $5M statue of Buddha is stolen in L.A.
ACTS of GOD	(6%)
Environment/Weather	3%	450	9/18/23	-0.3%	10/2/23	399.48	398.20	Ophelia cruises up the East Coast bringing the usual things that hurricans bring. Too much water – while drought impacts Louisiana and, of all places, Seattle!
Disasters	3%	450	9/18/23	-0.3%	10/2/23	426.81	425.53	Invisible F-15 fighter jet crashes after pilot parachutes out: “I know it’s supposed to be stealth,” says Rep. Nancy Mace (R-SC) “but this is ridiculous!” Florida’s reptiles attack, gator chomps woman while driver is bitten by rattlesnakes sliding into his car. Deadly bus crash in Wawayonda, NY kills two, injures many and a cyclist raising money for injured cyclists is run over and killed in Florida.
LIFESTYLE/JUSTICE INDEX			(15%)
Science, Tech, Educ.	4%	600	9/18/23	+0.2%	10/2/23	632.87	634.14	NASA’s Orbis Rex returns to Earth with asteroid debris and a warning... the asteroid Bennu has a 1 in 2000 chance of destroying the Earth in 2182. Fortnite accused of using “dark patterns” to trick kids into buying their online merch.
Equality (econ/social)	4%	600	9/18/23	+0.1%	10/2/23	627.23	627.97	Teacher shortage blamed on lack of affordable childcare – critics tell them to get pregnant over the summer while Nebraska sends a mom to prison for two years for giving abortion pills to her daughter. DoD to reinstate honorable discharges for gay soldiers.
Health	4%	600	9/18/23	+0.1%	10/2/23	472.02	472.49	COVID booster shots in short supply as anti-vaxxing fad fails. Elon Musk testing brain implants to cure paralysis. Recalls include fiery Generac portable generators, Green Bay ground beef packed by E-coli-istic packers.
Freedom and Justice	3%	450	9/18/23	+0.3%	10/2/23	467.29	468.69	AyGee Garland testifies before Congress, saying he’s not a “tool” of President Joe. Fugitive Cavalcante captured after thirteen days on the run, eating watermelons. Families sue Google Maps for directing man to drive to and over a broken bridge. Killer Murdagh seeks new trial after jury corrupted by busybody court clerk.
MISCELLANEOUS and TRANSIENT INDEX					(7%)
Cultural incidents	3%	450	9/18/23	+0.2%	10/2/23	502.90	503.91	Dolphin fans beat a Patriots fan to death on Monday Night Foorball while Taylor Swift cheers on new squeeze Travis Kelcey at KC game (they lose, but nobody seems to care). Post-Taylor concert ticket scams strike Olivia Rodrigo while Usher (or Ur-shur) chosen for Superbowl halftime show. Georgia remains #1 in college football polls but media darling Colorado is demolished by Oregon. Celebrity auctions benefit striking Hollywood crews, you can get a big star to walk your dog. RIP: Soap actor Billy Miller, ex-footballer Nicholas Kardilas.
Misc. incidents	4%	450	9/18/23	+0.3%	10/2/23	484.27	485.72	Jimmy and Roslyn Carter make rare public appearance at Plains peanut festival as he turns 99 and supporters enjoy treats like alligator on a stick. Weird week for former Arkansas Governors... Hutchinson 86’d from debate but one-time Presidential poll leader Mike Huckabee cashes in selling Relaxium sleeping pills. (America could use a good, long nap!) In beastly news, free outdoor “Paws Patrol” movie shown for dogs and their people. And then... a fugitive pig on Bacon Creek Road in Kentucky.

The Don Jones Index for the week of September 18th through September 24th, 2023 was DOWN 3.33 points

The Don Jones Index is sponsored by the Coalition for a New Consensus: retired Congressman and Independent Presidential candidate Jack “Catfish” Parnell, Chairman; Brian Doohan, Administrator. The CNC denies, emphatically, allegations that the organization, as well as any of its officers (including former Congressman Parnell, environmentalist/America-Firster Austin Tillerman and cosmetics CEO Rayna Finch) and references to Parnell’s works, “Entropy and Renaissance” and “The Coming Kill-Off” are fictitious or, at best, mere pawns in the web-serial “Black Helicopters” – and promise swift, effective legal action against parties promulgating this and/or other such slanders.

Comments, complaints, donations (especially SUPERPAC donations) always welcome at feedme@generisis.com or: speak@donjonesindex.com.

ATTACHMENT ONE – From RCP

REPUBLICAN PRIMARY AND 2024 GENERAL ELECTION POLLS

September 22, 2023

(September 22, 2007, '11, '15: 2015 Trump +9.0 | 2011 Perry +7.8 | 2007 Giuliani +5.3)

Polling Data

Poll	Date	Trump	DeSantis	Rama- swamy	Haley	Pence	Christie	Scott	Hutch- inson	Burgum	Spread
RCP Average	9/6 - 9/18	57.9	12.7	8.1	4.9	4.1	2.2	2.2	0.3	0.2	Trump +45.2
Emerson	9/17 - 9/18	59	12	7	3	5	5	2	1	1	Trump +47
Yahoo News	9/14 - 9/18	59	13	5	5	3	1	1	0	1	Trump +46
Morning Consult	9/15 - 9/17	59	13	10	6	5	2	2	1	0	Trump +46
Harvard-Harris	9/12 - 9/14	57	10	8	6	4	2	2	0	0	Trump +47
Reuters/Ipsos	9/8 - 9/14	51	14	13	4	4	2	2	0	0	Trump +37
Economist/YouGov	9/10 - 9/12	55	16	6	6	4	2	3	0	0	Trump +39
FOX News	9/9 - 9/12	60	13	11	5	3	2	3	0	0	Trump +47
Quinnipiac	9/7 - 9/11	62	12	6	5	5	2	3	1	0	Trump +50
The Messenger/HarrisX	9/6 - 9/11	59	11	7	4	4	2	2	0	0	Trump +48
Morning Consult	9/8 - 9/10	57	14	9	6	6	3	2	0	0	Trump +43
I&I/TIPP	8/30 - 9/1	60	11	9	3	6	1	1	0	0	Trump +49
Rasmussen Reports	8/29 - 8/31	45	9	5	7	4	9	4	0	0	Trump +36
CNN	8/25 - 8/31	52	18	6	7	7	2	3	0	1	Trump +34
Wall Street Journal	8/24 - 8/30	59	13	5	8	2	3	2	1	1	Trump +46
Morning Consult	9/2 - 9/4	60	15	8	5	6	3	2	1	0	Trump +45
Economist/YouGov	8/26 - 8/29	52	16	6	4	3	2	2	0	0	Trump +36
Morning Consult	8/25 - 8/27	58	14	10	5	6	3	2	1	0	Trump +44
Emerson	8/25 - 8/26	50	12	9	7	7	5	2	1	1	Trump +38
Messenger/HarrisX	8/24 - 8/26	59	14	8	3	6	2	2	0	0	Trump +45
Reuters/Ipsos	8/24 - 8/25	52	13	5	4	6	1	1	0	0	Trump +39
InsiderAdvantage	8/24 - 8/24	45	18	7	11	2	4	3	1	1	Trump +27
Morning Consult	8/24 - 8/24	58	14	11	3	6	4	3	0	0	Trump +44
New York Post	8/23 - 8/24	61	9	5	2	5	1	3	--	--	Trump +52
Yahoo News	8/17 - 8/21	52	12	8	3	2	2	4	0	1	Trump +40
InsiderAdvantage	8/19 - 8/20	51	10	6	5	3	4	3	2	1	Trump +41
Morning Consult	8/18 - 8/20	58	14	10	3	6	3	3	1	0	Trump +44
CBS News/YouGov	8/16 - 8/18	62	16	7	2	5	2	3	1	1	Trump +46
Emerson	8/16 - 8/17	56	10	10	2	3	3	2	1	1	Trump +46
FOX News	8/11 - 8/14	53	16	11	4	5	3	3	0	1	Trump +37
Trafalgar Group (R)	8/14 - 8/16	55	17	4	4	5	5	4	1	0	Trump +38
Economist/YouGov	8/12 - 8/15	55	16	4	3	3	2	3	0	0	Trump +39
Quinnipiac	8/10 - 8/14	57	18	5	3	4	3	3	1	0	Trump +39
Morning Consult	8/11 - 8/13	57	16	9	3	7	3	3	1	1	Trump +41
I&I/TIPP	8/2 - 8/4	57	12	8	4	5	1	2	0	0	Trump +45
Reuters/Ipsos	8/2 - 8/3	47	13	7	5	8	0	2	1	0	Trump +34
Fairleigh Dickinson*	7/31 - 8/7	58	15	3	3	5	5	2	0	1	Trump +43
Cygnal (R)*	8/1 - 8/3	53	10	11	3	7	2	3	0	0	Trump +42
Morning Consult	8/4 - 8/6	59	16	8	3	6	3	3	1	0	Trump +43
Morning Consult	7/28 - 7/30	58	15	9	3	7	3	3	0	1	Trump +43
NY Times/Siena	7/23 - 7/27	54	17	2	3	3	2	3	0	0	Trump +37
Economist/YouGov	7/22 - 7/25	54	18	6	3	3	1	3	0	0	Trump +36
Morning Consult	7/21 - 7/23	59	16	8	4	6	2	2	0	1	Trump +43
Rasmussen Reports	7/18 - 7/20	57	13	3	4	5	5	4	4	--	Trump +44
Harvard-Harris	7/19 - 7/20	52	12	10	4	7	2	2	1	1	Trump +40
Monmouth**	7/12 - 7/19	54	22	5	3	3	3	3	0	1	Trump +32
Quinnipiac	7/13 - 7/17	54	25	2	4	4	3	3	0	0	Trump +29
Yahoo News	7/13 - 7/17	48	23	3	3	3	1	4	0	1	Trump +25
Morning Consult	7/14 - 7/16	55	20	8	4	7	2	3	0	0	Trump +35
Reuters/Ipsos	7/11 - 7/17	47	19	9	3	7	3	2	0	0	Trump +28
Marquette	7/7 - 7/12	46	22	1	6	7	1	4	1	1	Trump +24
Economist/YouGov	7/8 - 7/11	48	22	2	3	5	2	3	0	0	Trump +26
I&I/TIPP	7/5 - 7/7	53	14	7	3	7	2	3	1	0	Trump +39
Morning Consult	7/7 - 7/9	56	17	8	3	7	3	3	1	0	Trump +39
FOX News	6/23 - 6/26	56	22	5	3	4	1	4	1	0	Trump +34
Emerson	6/19 - 6/20	59	21	2	4	6	2	2	1	1	Trump +38
NBC News	6/16 - 6/20	51	22	3	4	7	5	3	2	0	Trump +29
Yahoo News	6/16 - 6/20	48	24	2	2	5	3	4	0	0	Trump +24
Harvard-Harris	6/14 - 6/15	59	14	3	4	8	2	2	0	0	Trump +45
CNN	6/13 - 6/17	47	26	1	5	9	3	4	1	0	Trump +21
Messenger/HarrisX	6/14 - 6/15	53	17	2	3	6	2	4	1	0	Trump +36
Economist/YouGov	6/10 - 6/13	51	21	1	4	4	2	3	--	--	Trump +30
Reuters/Ipsos	6/9 - 6/12	43	22	3	3	7	2	2	0	1	Trump +21
Quinnipiac	6/8 - 6/12	53	23	3	4	4	4	4	1	0	Trump +30
CBS News	6/7 - 6/10	61	23	1	3	4	1	4	1	1	Trump +38
USA Today/Suffolk	6/5 - 6/9	48	23	--	4	4	2	6	1	0	Trump +25
I&I/TIPP	5/31 - 6/2	55	19	2	3	6	1	3	1	--	Trump +36
FOX News	5/19 - 5/22	53	20	4	4	5	0	2	0	--	Trump +33
Quinnipiac	5/18 - 5/22	56	25	1	3	2	2	2	0	--	Trump +31
CNN	5/17 - 5/20	53	26	1	6	6	2	2	1	1	Trump +27
Harvard-Harris	5/17 - 5/18	58	16	4	4	4	--	1	1	--	Trump +42
Marquette	5/8 - 5/18	46	25	3	5	2	0	1	0	--	Trump +21
Rasmussen Reports	5/11 - 5/15	62	17	2	5	6	--	--	3	--	Trump +45
Reuters/Ipsos	5/9 - 5/15	49	21	4	4	5	1	1	0	--	Trump +28
I&I/TIPP	5/3 - 5/5	55	17	4	4	6	0	2	1	--	Trump +38
ABC News/Wash Post	4/28 - 5/3	53	25	--	6	6	--	4	1	--	Trump +28
CBS News	4/27 - 4/29	58	22	5	4	5	2	1	1	--	Trump +36
Emerson	4/24 - 4/25	62	16	3	3	7	2	--	2	--	Trump +46
FOX News	4/21 - 4/24	53	21	3	4	6	1	2	0	--	Trump +32
Reuters/Ipsos	4/21 - 4/24	49	23	2	3	6	0	--	0	--	Trump +26
Cygnal (R)*	4/18 - 4/20	46	26	2	5	5	--	2	1	--	Trump +20
Harvard-Harris	4/18 - 4/19	55	20	2	4	7	--	1	0	--	Trump +35
NBC News	4/14 - 4/18	46	31	2	3	6	--	3	3	--	Trump +15
Wall Street Journal	4/11 - 4/17	48	24	2	5	1	0	3	0	--	Trump +24
Reuters/Ipsos	4/5 - 4/6	58	21	1	1	4	0	--	1	--	Trump +37
Reuters/Ipsos	3/31 - 4/3	48	19	--	6	5	2	--	--	--	Trump +29
Trafalgar Group (R)	3/31 - 4/2	56	23	1	4	4	--	1	--	--	Trump +33
InsiderAdvantage	3/31 - 4/1	57	24	1	5	4	2	0	--	--	Trump +33
Yahoo News**	3/30 - 3/31	52	21	1	5	3	2	--	--	--	Trump +31
I&I/TIPP	3/29 - 3/31	47	23	1	4	5	1	--	--	--	Trump +24
Cygnal (R)*	3/26 - 3/27	42	29	1	4	6	--	1	--	--	Trump +13
FOX News	3/24 - 3/27	54	24	1	3	6	1	0	1	--	Trump +30
Quinnipiac	3/23 - 3/27	47	33	1	4	5	1	1	0	--	Trump +14
Harvard-Harris	3/22 - 3/23	50	24	0	5	7	--	2	--	--	Trump +26
Trafalgar Group (R)	3/22 - 3/25	44	30	0	5	5	--	1	--	--	Trump +14
Marquette	3/12 - 3/22	40	35	--	5	5	0	0	0	--	Trump +5
Monmouth	3/16 - 3/20	44	36	--	6	7	--	--	--	--	Trump +8
Yahoo News**	3/16 - 3/20	44	28	--	5	4	1	--	--	--	Trump +16
Reuters/Ipsos	3/14 - 3/20	44	30	--	3	5	--	--	--	--	Trump +14
Trafalgar Group (R)	3/14 - 3/19	44	32	1	5	5	--	2	--	--	Trump +12
Quinnipiac	3/9 - 3/13	46	32	0	5	3	1	1	0	--	Trump +14
CNN	3/8 - 3/12	37	39	--	7	6	--	2	1	--	DeSantis +2
I&I/TIPP	3/1 - 3/3	51	22	1	4	7	0	--	--	--	Trump +29
Yahoo News**	2/23 - 2/27	45	29	--	4	2	0	--	--	--	Trump +16
Emerson	2/24 - 2/25	55	25	--	5	8	--	--	--	--	Trump +30
Susquehanna	2/19 - 2/26	29	27	--	10	6	--	1	--	--	Trump +2
FOX News	2/19 - 2/22	43	28	--	7	7	--	1	0	--	Trump +15
Harvard-Harris	2/15 - 2/16	46	23	--	6	7	--	1	--	--	Trump +23
Quinnipiac	2/9 - 2/14	42	36	--	5	4	--	1	0	--	Trump +6
Reuters/Ipsos	2/6 - 2/13	43	31	--	4	7	--	--	--	--	Trump +12
Economist/YouGov	2/4 - 2/7	42	32	--	5	8	--	--	--	--	Trump +10
Yahoo News**	2/2 - 2/6	37	35	--	5	4	2	--	--	--	Trump +2
I&I/TIPP	2/1 - 2/3	50	27	--	1	7	1	--	--	--	Trump +23
Emerson	1/19 - 1/21	55	29	--	3	6	--	--	--	--	Trump +26
Harvard-Harris	1/18 - 1/19	48	28	--	3	7	--	1	--	--	Trump +20
Economist/YouGov	1/14 - 1/17	44	32	--	4	5	--	--	--	--	Trump +12
Yahoo News**	1/12 - 1/16	37	36	--	1	5	3	--	--	--	Trump +1
Cygnal (R)*	12/12 - 12/14	40	35	--	4	7	1	1	--	--	Trump +5
Harvard-Harris	12/14 - 12/15	48	25	--	4	6	--	1	--	--	Trump +23
Economist/YouGov	11/26 - 11/29	36	30	--	3	8	--	--	--	--	Trump +6
Politico/Morning Consult	11/18 - 11/20	45	30	--	2	7	0	0	--	--	Trump +15
Emerson	11/18 - 11/19	55	25	--	3	8	--	--	--	--	Trump +30
Harvard-Harris	11/16 - 11/17	46	28	--	2	7	--	1	--	--	Trump +18
Politico/Morning Consult	11/10 - 11/14	47	33	--	1	5	0	0	--	--	Trump +14
Politico/Morning Consult	10/28 - 10/31	49	24	--	3	9	1	0	--	--	Trump +25
Harvard-Harris	10/12 - 10/13	55	17	--	2	7	--	1	--	--	Trump +38
NY Times/Siena	10/9 - 10/12	49	26	--	3	6	--	--	--	--	Trump +23
Politico/Morning Consult	9/16 - 9/18	52	19	--	2	8	1	1	--	--	Trump +33
I&I/TIPP	9/7 - 9/9	54	15	--	2	8	0	1	--	--	Trump +39
Harvard-Harris	9/7 - 9/8	59	17	--	2	9	--	1	--	--	Trump +42
Politico/Morning Consult	8/19 - 8/21	57	18	--	3	8	1	1	--	--	Trump +39
Politico/Morning Consult	8/10 - 8/10	56	18	--	2	8	1	1	--	--	Trump +38
I&I/TIPP	8/2 - 8/4	53	17	--	1	10	2	0	--	--	Trump +36
Harvard-Harris	7/27 - 7/28	52	19	--	5	7	--	1	--	--	Trump +33
USA Today/Suffolk	7/22 - 7/25	43	34	--	3	7	1	--	--	--	Trump +9
Politico/Morning Consult	7/15 - 7/17	53	23	--	2	7	0	1	--	--	Trump +30
Politico/Morning Consult	7/8 - 7/10	52	21	--	3	8	1	0	--	--	Trump +31
NY Times/Siena	7/5 - 7/7	49	25	--	6	6	--	--	--	--	Trump +24
Harvard-Harris	6/28 - 6/29	56	16	--	4	7	--	2	--	--	Trump +40
Emerson	6/28 - 6/29	55	20	--	3	9	--	--	--	--	Trump +35
Politico/Morning Consult	6/24 - 6/26	51	23	--	2	8	1	0	--	--	Trump +28
Politico/Morning Consult	6/4 - 6/5	51	18	--	4	12	1	1	--	--	Trump +33
Harvard-Harris	5/18 - 5/19	41	12	--	4	7	--	1	--	--	Trump +29
I&I/TIPP	4/4 - 4/6	49	15	--	3	13	--	1	--	--	Trump +34
Harvard-Harris	4/20 - 4/21	58	13	--	3	8	--	1	--	--	Trump +45
Harvard-Harris	3/23 - 3/24	59	10	--	3	11	--	2	--	--	Trump +48
Politico/Morning Consult	3/18 - 3/21	54	14	--	5	10	--	0	--	--	Trump +40
Rasmussen Reports	2/21 - 2/22	47	20	--	3	5	--	--	--	--	Trump +27
Politico/Morning Consult	1/22 - 1/23	49	14	--	2	13	1	1	--	--	Trump +35
Harvard-Harris	1/19 - 1/20	57	12	--	--	11	--	--	--	--	Trump +45
Reuters/Ipsos	12/13 - 1/17	54	11	--	4	8	2	--	--	--	Trump +43
I&I/TIPP	12/1 - 12/4	60	11	--	3	9	1	1	--	--	Trump +49
Harvard-Harris	11/30 - 12/2	67	8	--	4	9	--	1	--	--	Trump +58
Harvard-Harris	10/27 - 10/28	47	10	--	6	9	--	3	--	--	Trump +37
Politico/Morning Consult	10/8 - 10/11	47	12	--	3	12	--	1	--	--	Trump +35
Harvard-Harris	9/15 - 9/16	58	9	--	3	13	--	1	--	--	Trump +45
Emerson	8/30 - 9/1	67	10	--	7	6	--	--	--	--	Trump +57
Politico/Morning Consult	5/14 - 5/17	48	8	--	4	13	--	2	--	--	Trump +35
Harvard-Harris	2/23 - 2/25	42	--	--	8	18	--	3	--	--	Trump +24
Politico/Morning Consult	2/14 - 2/15	53	--	--	6	12	--	--	--	--	Trump +41
Politico/Morning Consult	1/8 - 1/11	42	--	--	5	16	--	1	--	--	Trump +26
Politico/Morning Consult	11/21 - 11/23	54	--	--	4	12	--	1	--	--	Trump +42

· 2024 Iowa Republican Presidential Caucus

o Haley8

o Scott7

o Pence4

o Burgum4

o Hurd0

*Note: the RNC has changed course and now accepts this poll, thus qualifying Gov. Burgum

· 2024 Republican Presidential Nomination

Reuters/Ipsos

o Trump51

o DeSantis14

o Ramaswamy13

o Haley4

o Pence4

o Christie2

o Scott2

o Hutchinson0

o Burgum0

Trump +37

· 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination

o Biden67

· 2024 New Hampshire Democratic Presidential Primary

o Biden78

More of RCP’s Latest Polls (Check link for post-publication updates)

Head to head polls…

Friday, September 22

Race/Topic (Click to Sort)	Poll	Results	Spread
New Hampshire: Trump vs. Biden	CNN/UNH	Biden 52, Trump 40	Biden +12
New Hampshire: DeSantis vs. Biden	CNN/UNH	Biden 50, DeSantis 33	Biden +17
New Hampshire: Ramaswamy vs. Biden	CNN/UNH	Biden 49, Ramaswamy 32	Biden +17
New Hampshire: Haley vs. Biden	CNN/UNH	Biden 45, Haley 29	Biden +16
New Hampshire: Pence vs. Biden	CNN/UNH	Biden 49, Pence 20	Biden +29
New Hampshire: Christie vs. Biden	CNN/UNH	Biden 44, Christie 20	Biden +24
New Hampshire: Scott vs. Biden	CNN/UNH	Biden 47, Scott 34	Biden +13

Wednesday, September 20

Race/Topic (Click to Sort)	Poll	Results	Spread
General Election: Trump vs. Biden	Emerson	Trump 45, Biden 45	Tie
General Election: Trump vs. Biden vs. West	Emerson	Trump 43, Biden 42, West 4	Trump +1
General Election: Trump vs. Biden	Yahoo News	Trump 44, Biden 44	Tie
General Election: DeSantis vs. Biden	Yahoo News	Biden 44, DeSantis 41	Biden +3

Tuesday, September 19

Race/Topic (Click to Sort)	Poll	Results	Spread
General Election: Trump vs. Biden	Morning Consult	Trump 42, Biden 42	Tie
General Election: DeSantis vs. Biden	Morning Consult	Biden 43, DeSantis 39	Biden +4
New York: Trump vs. Biden	Siena	Biden 52, Trump 31	Biden +21

Monday, September 18

Race/Topic (Click to Sort)	Poll	Results	Spread
General Election: Trump vs. Biden	Rasmussen Reports	Trump 42, Biden 43	Biden +1

Sunday, September 17

Race/Topic (Click to Sort)	Poll	Results	Spread
General Election: Trump vs. Biden	CBS News	Trump 50, Biden 49	Trump +1

Saturday, September 16

Race/Topic (Click to Sort)	Poll	Results	Spread
Michigan: Trump vs. Biden	Susquehanna	Biden 46, Trump 43	Biden +3
Michigan: DeSantis vs. Biden	Susquehanna	Biden 48, DeSantis 42	Biden +6

Friday, September 15

Race/Topic (Click to Sort)	Poll	Results	Spread
General Election: Trump vs. Biden	FOX News	Trump 48, Biden 46	Trump +2
General Election: DeSantis vs. Biden	FOX News	Biden 47, DeSantis 44	Biden +3
Recommended · Saudi Crown Prince MBS: "Do We Have Bad Laws? Yes, We Are Changing That" · Victor Davis Hanson: Biden Border Management A Deliberate Cynical Policy To Undermine Security Of The Country · AG Merrick Garland: "I Don't Believe" That I Have Talked To Anyone At The FBI About Hunter Biden's Case
General Election: Ramaswamy vs. Biden	FOX News	Biden 44, Ramaswamy 45	Ramaswamy +1
General Election: Haley vs. Biden	FOX News	Haley 45, Biden 43	Haley +2
General Election: Pence vs. Biden	FOX News	Biden 43, Pence 44	Pence +1
General Election: Christie vs. Biden	FOX News	Biden 42, Christie 41	Biden +1
General Election: Scott vs. Biden	FOX News	Scott 43, Biden 44	Biden +1
General Election: Trump vs. Biden	Harvard-Harris	Trump 44, Biden 40	Trump +4
General Election: DeSantis vs. Biden	Harvard-Harris	Biden 42, DeSantis 38	Biden +4
General Election: Ramaswamy vs. Biden	Harvard-Harris	Biden 39, Ramaswamy 37	Biden +2
General Election: Haley vs. Biden	Harvard-Harris	Haley 41, Biden 37	Haley +4
General Election: Pence vs. Biden	Harvard-Harris	Biden 42, Pence 36	Biden +6
General Election: Scott vs. Biden	Harvard-Harris	Scott 39, Biden 37	Scott +2
General Election: Trump vs. Harris	Harvard-Harris	Trump 46, Harris 40	Trump +6
General Election: DeSantis vs. Harris	Harvard-Harris	Harris 44, DeSantis 37	Harris +7
General Election: Ramaswamy vs. Harris	Harvard-Harris	Harris 40, Ramaswamy 38	Harris +2
General Election: Haley vs. Harris	Harvard-Harris	Harris 40, Haley 39	Harris +1
General Election: Pence vs. Harris	Harvard-Harris	Harris 39, Pence 39	Tie
General Election: Scott vs. Harris	Harvard-Harris	Harris 43, Scott 35	Harris +8

Wednesday, September 13

Race/Topic (Click to Sort)	Poll	Results	Spread
General Election: Trump vs. Biden	Quinnipiac	Trump 46, Biden 47	Biden +1
General Election: Trump vs. Biden	Messenger/HarrisX	Trump 44, Biden 43	Trump +1
General Election: Trump vs. Biden	Economist/YouGov	Trump 43, Biden 44	Biden +1

Tuesday, September 12

Race/Topic (Click to Sort)	Poll	Results	Spread
Iowa: Trump vs. Biden	Emerson	Trump 50, Biden 39	Trump +11
Iowa: Trump vs. Biden vs. West	Emerson	Trump 48, Biden 35, West 5	Trump +13
General Election: Trump vs. Biden	Morning Consult	Trump 42, Biden 44	Biden +2
General Election: DeSantis vs. Biden	Morning Consult	Biden 43, DeSantis 38	Biden +5

Thursday, September 7

Race/Topic (Click to Sort)	Poll	Results	Spread
General Election: Trump vs. Biden	CNN	Trump 47, Biden 46	Trump +1
General Election: DeSantis vs. Biden	CNN	Biden 47, DeSantis 47	Tie
General Election: Ramaswamy vs. Biden	CNN	Biden 46, Ramaswamy 45	Biden +1
General Election: Haley vs. Biden	CNN	Haley 49, Biden 43	Haley +6
General Election: Pence vs. Biden	CNN	Biden 44, Pence 46	Pence +2
General Election: Scott vs. Biden	CNN	Scott 46, Biden 44	Scott +2
General Election: Christie vs. Biden	CNN	Biden 42, Christie 44	Christie +2

ATTACHMENT ONE (A) – From the Washington Post

POST-ABC POLL: BIDEN FACES CRITICISM ON ECONOMY, IMMIGRATION AND AGE

A finding that shows Trump leading Biden by a wide margin does not match other recent polling, however, suggesting it is an outlier

By Dan Balz, Scott Clement and Emily Guskin September 24, 2023 at 12:01 a.m.

A Washington Post-ABC News poll finds President Biden struggling to gain approval from a skeptical public, with dissatisfaction growing over his handling of the economy and immigration, a rising share saying the United States is doing too much to aid Ukraine in its war with Russia and broad concerns about his age as he seeks a second term.

Biden and former president Donald Trump appear headed for a rematch of their 2020 contest, although more than 3 in 5 Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents say they would prefer a nominee other than the president. But Biden’s advisers have argued that he is the strongest Democrat for 2024 and those who wish for someone else share no consensus on who that should be, with 8 percent naming Vice President Harris, 8 percent naming Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and 20 percent saying they prefer “just someone else.”

The Post-ABC poll shows Biden trailing Trump by 10 percentage points at this early stage in the election cycle, although the sizable margin of Trump’s lead in this survey is significantly at odds with other public polls that show the general election contest a virtual dead heat. The difference between this poll and others, as well as the unusual makeup of Trump’s and Biden’s coalitions in this survey, suggest it is probably an outlier.

In his bid to become the Republican presidential nominee for a third time, Trump is in a strong position nationally despite facing multiple criminal charges. He is favored by 54 percent of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, little changed from 51 percent in May. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is second at 15 percent, down from 25 percent in May. No other Republican reaches double digits. Trump also leads his GOP rivals in recent state polls, which are likely to be more reliable indicators than national polls of the shape of the GOP race in the coming months.

Trump faces 91 felony counts in four jurisdictions, including two cases in which he has been indicted on charges of attempting to overturn the results of the 2020 election. Asked whether the former president is being held accountable under the law like anyone else would be or unfairly victimized by his political opponents, 53 percent of Americans say he is being held accountable like others and 40 percent say he is being unfairly victimized. Three-quarters of Republicans say the latter.

A similar question was asked about the recently launched impeachment inquiry aimed at Biden by House Republicans, despite the absence of direct evidence of an impeachable offense by the president. On this question, 58 percent of Americans say Biden is being held accountable under the law like any other president while 32 percent say he is being unfairly victimized by political opponents.

The public is more evenly divided on whether Congress should begin impeachment proceedings against Biden, with about 7 in 10 Republicans and Republican leaners in support while about 8 in 10 Democrats are opposed.

Biden’s overall approval stands at 37 percent, about where it was in May but lower than in February when it was 42 percent. The Post-ABC poll finds 56 percent of Americans disapproving of Biden, a figure on par with other recent polls.

Full Post-ABC poll results Follow link or Attachment Twenty One

Biden has spent recent weeks promoting his economic record — “Bidenomics,” as he calls it — and has cited low unemployment, infrastructure spending and investment in programs to deal with climate change among other indicators as evidence of success. But worries about inflation have persisted and, in the Post-ABC survey, his approval on handling the economy has dropped to 30 percent, the lowest of his presidency.

Overall, roughly 3 in 4 Americans say the economy is not so good or poor, and despite the unemployment rate staying below 4 percent for more than a year, 57 percent rate it negatively. There are even worse ratings of gas or energy prices (87 percent say not so good or poor), which have recently risen again, and food prices (a 91 percent negative rating).

Three in 4 also have a negative perception of the state of the average American’s income. Asked whether they are better off financially than when Biden took office, not as well off or in about the same shape, 44 percent say not as well off, compared with 15 percent who say better off and 39 percent who say about the same.

The Biden administration has faced repeated challenges on immigration and has shifted its policies amid clamor for help by communities at the border and in some states and big cities elsewhere run by Democratic mayors. Last week, the administration announced that it would offer temporary work permits for nearly 500,000 Venezuelans to relieve some of the pressure.

Asked about Biden’s handling of the immigration situation at the U.S.-Mexico border, 23 percent say they approve while 62 percent say they disapprove. That compares with 28 percent approval and 59 percent disapproval in February.

On another issue that has figured into political campaigns over the past year, abortion remains a flash point. Opposition to the Supreme Court’s decision in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, which overturned the constitutional right to abortion and turned the issue back to the states, stands at 64 percent. That has changed little since the decision, and it is an issue that Biden and Democrats say they intend to continue to adjudicate in the 2024 elections.

Trump has bragged that, by appointing three conservative justices to the Supreme Court, he was able to overturn Roe v. Wade after other elected officials opposing abortion had failed. But he has wobbled of late on the issue, criticizing other Republicans, including governors who have enacted bans on abortion as early as six weeks into a pregnancy. His recent comments have drawn criticism from some of the groups who applauded his Supreme Court appointments.

Biden met Friday at the White House with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who also met with congressional leaders of both parties on that day. The president reaffirmed the administration’s commitment to aid the Ukrainian war effort against Russia, but on Capitol Hill, some House and Senate Republicans are resisting authorizing additional assistance.

The issue of aid to Ukraine is just one of several issues that have split House Republicans, making the possibility of a government shutdown at the end of next week increasingly likely. But when asked whom they would blame if that were to happen, 40 percent say Biden and the Democrats while 33 percent say Republicans in Congress.

That finding is at odds with previous Post-ABC polls taken over many years at times when the government was partially shut down due to spending disputes. In all those cases but one, Americans pinned the blame more on Republicans than Democrats, and in that lone instance, the public was evenly divided over which party bore responsibility.

Biden’s travails have been well documented this year in Post-ABC and other polls, although those surveys have shown that a general election contest between the two men remains a toss-up. The latest Post-ABC survey, however, produced a surprising result, with Trump ahead of Biden among registered voters by 10 percentage points — 52 percent to 42 percent. In May, a Post-ABC survey found Trump with a six-point lead among registered voters, 49 percent to Biden’s 43 percent.

In his two campaigns for the White House, Trump did not approach a majority in the popular vote, winning 46 percent in 2016 and 47 percent in 2020.

Looking at some of the support levels among different demographic and political groups also points to reasons for caution on this finding. For example, in the new poll, men favor Trump by 62 percent to 32 percent, a margin of 30 points. In May, Trump’s margin among men was 16 points.

Among voters under age 35, Trump leads Biden in the new Post-ABC poll by 20 points. Some other recent public polls show Biden winning this group by between six and 18 points. In 2020, Biden won voters under age 35 by double digits. Among non-White voters, the poll finds Biden leads by nine points. In four other public polls, Biden’s lead among non-White voters ranges from 12 points to 24 points.

Another group that backs Trump by a big margin in the poll are those who say they did not vote in 2020. They account for about 15 percent of the overall sample of registered voters, and they favor Trump over Biden by 63 percent to 27 percent. That level of support is significantly stronger than among those in the poll who say they voted in 2020. Among that group, Trump is at 50 percent, Biden at 45 percent.

Outlier results occasionally occur in polls due to random error and nonresponse issues, although the political composition of the poll is typical on other metrics. Self-reported 2020 voters say they supported Biden over Trump that year by a 50 percent to 46 percent margin, similar to Biden’s 51 percent to 47 percent margin in the national popular vote. In the poll, Republicans have a four-point advantage on party identification when including independents who lean toward either party, slightly more Republican than other recent polls.

A majority of Americans (60 percent) say they believe Biden was legitimately elected in 2020. That result has held relatively steady since early 2021 even as Trump continues to claim falsely that the election was marred by widespread fraud.

But Trump’s persistent false claims have found an audience in the Republican Party. Among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, 55 percent say they believe Biden was not legitimately elected, with 44 percent saying there is solid evidence of fraud.

The issue of age affects perceptions of both of them, though more often with Biden, who would be 82 at the start of a second term while Trump would be 78. Overall, 74 percent of adults say the president would be too old to serve another term, while 50 percent say that of Trump.

A near-majority of Americans (48 percent) say both men are too old to serve another term. Nearly a quarter (23 percent) say neither is too old. Roughly similar percentages of Democrats and independents say both men would be too old, while a slim majority of Republicans say only Biden is too old.

The Constitution prohibits someone who has taken an oath to defend the Constitution from holding office if they have engaged in insurrection or rebellion against the United States. There are some legal experts who say this should disqualify Trump because of his role in the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol. Americans are roughly divided on this, with 44 percent saying he should be prohibited from holding office again and 50 percent saying he should not be prohibited.

Democrats and Republicans are predictably split on this, with Democrats overwhelmingly saying he should be prohibited and Republicans the opposite. But 24 percent of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents say Trump should not be prohibited and 19 percent of Republicans say he should be.

Post-ABC poll crosstabs by group

The Post-ABC poll was conducted Sept. 15-20, among a random national sample of 1,006 U.S. adults, with 75 percent reached on cellphones and 25 percent on landlines. Overall results have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. The error margin is four points among the sample of 890 registered voters, and larger among other subgroups.

*SEE POST POLL PARTICULARS as ATTACHMENT TWENTY ONE

ATTACHMENT TWO – From AZ Central (phoenix)

HOW TO WATCH THE 2ND GOP DEBATE, WHICH CAN'T POSSIBLY BE AS BAD AS THE 1ST. OR MORE USEFUL

By Bill Goodykoontz

There’s good news and bad news about the second Republican presidential debate.

The good news is that it can hardly be worse than the first one, which was an exercise in childish antics and running roughshod over the moderators.

The bad news is that it’s difficult to see how it can be much better.

The network is different, more or less. The moderators are different. The lineup of participants likely will be different, as a couple of candidates aren’t expected to clear the low bar for participation.

But the elephant not in the room, as Fox News’ Bret Baier put it in the first debate, remains (or doesn’t) Donald Trump, who skipped out on the first debate to whine on X with Tucker Carlson. Trump’s passing on this one, as well, instead giving a speech to striking autoworkers in Detroit while the other candidates bark at each other on the debate stage.

Who qualified for the second GOP debate?

The second Republican debate is scheduled for 6 p.m. Arizona time on Wednesday, Sept. 27 on Fox Business and Univision, and will stream on Rumble, a conservative online video platform. (It’s where Kari Lake announced she was leaving Fox 10 in Phoenix, if you’re wondering what it’s like).

The debate will be held at the Ronald Reagan Foundation and Institute in Simi Valley, California.

Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, Vivek Ramaswamy, Mike Pence, Tim Scott and Chris Christie are expected to participate.

Who cares?

I don’t say that lightly. I think debates can be important. Politicians, like athletes and movie stars, among others, are increasingly controlling of their image, with little exposure to media that isn’t rehearsed or approved. A debate actually gives voters a chance to get them away from that, at least in theory.

There wasn't meaningful debate the first time around

In the first debate, held on Fox News on Aug. 23, that was more difficult than it sounds. The most notable takeaways from that debacle? The lingering image is of DeSantis, looking around the stage at the other candidates before answering a question about who would support Trump as the GOP candidate, even if Trump was convicted of any of the crimes he's been indicted on. Then DeSantis meekly raised his hand.

Profiles in courage it wasn’t.

Then there was Ramaswamy, who came off like an annoying frat bro; he did everything but give Pence a wedgie on stage. Meanwhile, Baier and Martha MacCallum basically ran the thing like preschool teachers who couldn’t get the kids to come in from recess.

Baier was almost apologetic when bringing up Trump, who is currently lapping the field. MacCallum began the proceedings with the question that surely was burning in everyone’s minds: What did the candidates think about Oliver Anthony’s hit song “Rich Men North of Richmond.”

Seriously. That's how they kicked off the first debate of the campaign season.

Moderators Varney, Perino and Calderón have an advantage

In that regard Varney, Perino and Calderón are starting from an advantage — you can’t get off to a dumber start than that. (Anthony later said the candidates were basically the people he was singing about.)

Typically media would treat a debate as a proving ground for candidates to stake out a claim on certain policies, or to gain some traction in polling that lasts more than a day or two after the debate is over.

Not this time. Or next time. Or any time Trump doesn’t appear. Because the hard truth everyone on the stage, in the room and watching on TV knows is simple: None of these people are going to be the Republican candidate for president in 2024. Trump is.

The best this bunch can hope for is somehow proving their fealty to him in hopes of being chosen as his running mate. And even that seems unlikely.

Haley is the grown-up in the room, for instance, which you would think might make her a good choice for the No. 2 spot. But no. That assumes Republicans are looking for grown-ups, and there is no evidence of that so far this campaign season. And she criticizes Trump too much.

Will anyone else? Will the moderators keep the circus in check? Will they push harder on what Trump’s indictments mean to the party? Will any of the candidates stand out in a meaningful way?

We can’t know the answers to those questions yet. But we do know the answer to this one: Will any of it matter, ultimately?

Not one bit.

When is the second GOP debate?

6 p.m. Arizona time on Wednesday, Sept. 27 on Fox Business, Univision and streaming on Rumble.

Reach Goodykoontz at bill.goodykoontz@arizonarepublic.com. Facebook: facebook.com/GoodyOnFilm. X, formerly known as Twitter: @goodyk.

ATTACHMENT THREE – From New York Magazine

SECOND REPUBLICAN DEBATE: WHO’S IN, WHO’S OUT, WHO’S BOYCOTTING

By Ed Kilgore

For all the drama surrounding the first Republican presidential debate and Donald Trump’s decision to boycott it, the event didn’t exactly shake up the race. The most aggressive and visible debaters, Vivek Ramaswamy and Nikki Haley, got modest bumps in national and early-state polls. Ron DeSantis largely stood pat in the debate and didn’t gain any ground on Trump. And despite some initial indicators that Trump has lost a bit of steam, he’s now reached an all-time high in the national polls (56.6 percent, according to RealClearPolitics). Time is beginning to run out for Trump’s rivals, and they will need to make some noise during the second debate at the Ronald Reagan Library in California on September 27.

The criteria the Republican National Committee has established for the second debate are stepped-up replicas of the first debate’s requirements: 50,000 unique donors drawn from 20 states and a 3 percent showing in two qualifying national polls — or one national poll and two early-state polls — taken since August 1. As before, the RNC is not identifying qualifying polls in advance (other than to say they must include a sample of 800 likely primary voters and be conducted by pollsters with no direct ties to a candidate), but is simply telling candidates who ask whether they’ve made the grade. And the RNC continues to insist that debaters sign a “loyalty pledge” to support the ultimate nominee, a requirement some seem to be taking with a grain of salt.

Here’s where we are on debate qualification as the September 25 deadline approaches:

Candidates Who Qualified and Will Participate

Six of the eight candidates who were in the first debate have qualified for the second and will be on the stage at the Reagan Library: Ron DeSantis, Vivek Ramaswamy, Nikki Haley, Mike Pence, Tim Scott, and Chris Christie.

Candidates Who Could Qualify But Won’t Be There

Front-runner Donald Trump instantly met the donor and polling requirements for the debate, though he has yet to sign a loyalty pledge. But his campaign has confirmed he will skip the second debate just as he did the first. And as he did with his Tucker Carlson debate on August 23, Trump is planning some counterprogramming: a speech in Detroit to “over 500 workers, with his campaign planning to fill the room with plumbers, pipe-fitters, electricians, as well as autoworkers,” according to the New York Times.

Candidates Who May or May Not Qualify

Doug Burgum and Asa Hutchinson, who participated in the August debate, are currently on the outside looking in. Burgum has met the donor requirement and has one qualifying state poll; he’s counting on an expensive ad blitz to make the cut. Hutchinson has one qualifying national poll, but could struggle to hit 3 percent in others, and he hasn’t met the donor requirement yet either.

None of the candidates who failed to make the cut for the first debate look like prospects to get into the second. One candidate, Miami mayor Francis Suarez, has dropped out. Another, Will Hurd, has categorically refused to sing the loyalty pledge. And while another, Perry Johnson, has met the donor requirement, he is all but invisible in the polls.

Trump Is Secretly Worried About His Prison Jumpsuit

Iowa-Obsessed DeSantis Is Tanking in Other Early States

Shutdown Nears As Trump Tells House GOP to Defund the Government

ATTACHMENT FOUR – From CNN

FOR GOP CANDIDATES, A SHRINKING FIELD BRINGS AN UNCOMFORTABLE TRUTH AHEAD OF NEXT DEBATE

By Daniel Strauss, CNN Updated 9:21 AM EDT, Fri September 22, 2023

The second Republican presidential debate in California next week will mark a new phase in the primary contest: Some candidates will start to feel a new level of pressure to drop out.

As of Thursday, six candidates have said they had qualified for the second debate, which will take place next Wednesday at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in Simi Valley: Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, former Vice President Mike Pence, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, and South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott. Two other candidates who participated in the first debate of the cycle – North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum and former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson – had not said they had qualified for the debate. The far and away front-runner in the primary, former President Donald Trump, is opting to skip the debate again and instead do a prime time speech with current and former union members in Detroit.

For those on stage, the theme of the debate is resiliency, especially as a shrinking field increasingly becomes the uncomfortable truth. Even though Trump did not participate in the first debate, poll after poll since then has shown him with a dominant lead in the primary.

“That’s exactly how the Republican world is looking at this debate – it’s a winnow-the-field moment,” Republican strategist Cam Savage said. “Now obviously it will be somewhat winnowed (compared) to the last one just based on the conditions of entrants, but that’s not really what people are talking about. What people are talking about is ‘are any of these candidates going to break out and how is the field going to winnow?’”

Going into the first debate, the lesser-known candidates were hoping for a breakout moment and the windfall of attention and donations that usually comes with it. Ramaswamy and Haley, in particular, have been enjoying the polling bumps and donations that come with a standout performance.

But it’s clear that staying in the primary will only get harder.

The criteria for even qualifying for the second debate are more restrictive. For a candidate to get on the debate stage, they need to have signed a pledge promising to back the eventual nominee of the 2024 Republican primary, hit 50,000 unique donors (a 10,000-donor increase from the first debate requirement) that includes a minimum 200 donors from 20 states and territories. Qualifying candidates also have to register at 3% in two national polls or the same level of support in one national poll and two polls from separate early nominating states – Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina or Nevada. The deadline for candidates to qualify for the second debate is Monday night.

But beyond qualifying for the debate, strategists warn the window is closing for candidates to emerge as a Trump alternative, even those who continue to qualify for future debates.

Trump’s rivals have been sharpening their attacks on the former president, seeking to contrast the president as unfit for the moment or out of step with the party on abortion. Those attacks haven’t made much of a dent thus far into Trump’s massive lead over the rest of the field.

That doesn’t necessarily mean his lead will continue after this debate, but as time shrinks before the Iowa caucuses, it’s apparent among candidates and strategists that time is running out in a less than ideal way for anyone besides Trump.

“Former President Trump continues to hold his position very firmly as the front-runner on the GOP side,” Republican strategist James Hartman said. “I don’t think that rules out potential surges from a select few of the remaining candidates.”

Most of the contenders, after the first debate, have needed to consider whether they wanted to keep throwing money at bids that may not pan out, he noted.

“But I think some of them still have potential,” he said.

Candidates are quick to admit the importance of being on the debate stage and the longterm consequences of being absent from it, including for Trump. While campaigning in New Hampshire on Thursday, Haley said it was a “mistake” for Trump to have skipped the first debate and dinged him for planning to also take a pass on the second one.

“He’s not gonna be on the second debate stage,” Haley said in Greenland, New Hampshire. “I think that’s gonna hurt him. You can’t win the American people by being absent. You just can’t. The American people want you to fight for them.”

Haley added, “You can’t just not be on the debate stage because you’re so high in the polls. You’ve got to show not what you did in the last four years, what are you gonna do in the next four.”

The real danger for the candidates is to have a “backsliding” moment, Savage argued. DeSantis, for instance, can’t afford to hover in the background of the debate as he did last time.

“I think there’s a sense that in these high stakes debates, you’re only as good as your last performance, so if anybody has a backsliding moment that could be the end for them,” Savage said. “So, I don’t think holding back if you’re not DeSantis does you no good. He’s more or less in second place despite the one poll that had Haley moving up. But in terms of the on-the-ground in the early states, it seems like DeSantis is perfectly in second place, so if you’re not moving in that direction after this, the pressure is only going to build.”

Among the sect of the Republican voters and donors who don’t want to back Trump in 2024, there has been a hesitance to weigh in on the primary until a consensus alternative has emerged. So far, that hasn’t happened. Savage said it’s not clear that, even if one candidate does break out from the non-Trump pack, it will matter in the end.

“The one thing that’s yet to be determined, and maybe it doesn’t matter at all, is if there’s consolidation of support, can that give strength and momentum to one of these candidates to make a real run at Trump. And if there’s not that consolidation, then all you’re doing is waiting on pins and needles to see if someone can beat him by three points in Iowa in January,” Savage said. “There’s five or six candidates. Nobody’s going to break away from it. If someone’s going to beat him they’ll nip him.”

ATTACHMENT FIVE – From Axios

SIX GOP CANDIDATES HAVE QUALIFIED FOR SECOND DEBATE, CAMPAIGNS SAY

By Erin Doherty Sep. 19, 2023

At least six Republican presidential candidates appear to have qualified for the second GOP presidential debate Sept. 27 in Simi Valley, Calif., according to their campaigns.

The big picture: The candidates are likely to take the stage without former President Trump, the GOP frontrunner who's planning to counterprogram the debate by speaking to striking autoworkers in Detroit about the same time.

Driving the news: Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis; businessman Vivek Ramaswamy; former United Nations ambassador Nikki Haley; former Vice President Mike Pence; former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie; and Sen. Tim Scott (S.C.) have all appeared to have qualified, according to spokespeople for their campaigns.

• Participants in the debate need to show they have at least 50,000 unique donors, including at least 200 donors each from 20 states or territories.

• They also need at least 3% of support in two qualifying national surveys, or in one national poll and two polls from competitive early primary states. The polls must have been conducted since Aug. 1.

North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, who took the stage last month, has cleared the donor threshold but not the polling requirement, per a spokesperson for his campaign.

• A spokesperson for former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson, who also took part in the first debate, did not immediately respond to Axios' request for comment.

Between the lines: The Republican National Committee has not yet released its official list of debate participants and, like the first debate, it hasn't said publicly which polls meet its standards for qualification.

• The deadline for candidates to qualify is 48 hours before the debate, a spokesperson for the RNC confirmed.

Flashback: Trump, who said last month that he would "not be doing the debates," also snubbed the first GOP primary debate in Milwaukee, instead sitting for an interview with former Fox News host Tucker Carlson that aired during part of the debate.

• Trump also refused to sign the RNC's pledge to support the eventual nominee, the final debate qualification requirement.

• With Trump absent in Milwaukee, Ramaswamy emerged as a lightning rod on stage by sparring with his GOP rivals.

What to watch: The debate, co-moderated by Fox News Media's Stuart Varney and Dana Perino and UNIVISION's Ilia Calderón, is scheduled for 9 p.m. ET on Sept. 27 at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library.

• Trump's speech in Detroit that evening is is scheduled in prime time as well, the New York Times first reported.

Go deeper: In Trump's absence, Ramaswamy drives the GOP debate

ATTACHMENT SIX – From CBS

WHEN IS THE SECOND REPUBLICAN DEBATE, AND WHO HAS QUALIFIED FOR IT?

BY AARON NAVARRO UPDATED ON: SEPTEMBER 21, 2023 / 3:24 PM / CBS NEWS

When is the second Republican debate?

The second Republican primary debate will be held next week, on Sept. 27 at 9 p.m. ET, at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library, in Simi Valley, California, and will run two hours.

· The first Republican debate's biggest highlights: Revisit 7 key moments

Fox Business, along with Univision, will moderate the debate, and the conservative online video platform Rumble will also stream it.

What are the requirements to qualify for the debate?

The threshold for the second debate is higher than it was for the first. Candidates must poll at 3% in two national polls or 3% in one national poll and 3% in one early state poll from two separate early-voting states — Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, South Carolina — recognized by the Republican National Committee. For the first debate, the polling requirement was 1% in the same poll categories.

Polls must have been conducted on or after Aug. 1, and candidates have until 48 hours before the debate to meet the polling requirement.

Candidates will also need to have a minimum of 50,000 unique donors to their principal presidential campaign committee or exploratory committee, with at least 200 unique donors per state or territory in more than 20 states and/or territories. That's an increase of 10,000 unique donors over the 40,000 required to make it onstage for the first primary debate.

Who has qualified for the second debate?

The RNC has not yet released its list of participants, but so far, it looks likely that former President Donald Trump, entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, former Ambassador to the U.N. and South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, former Vice President Mike Pence, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott are likely to have qualified.

Former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson and North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum appear not to have qualified yet.

Who's moderating the debate?

Stuart Varney and Dana Perino, of Fox News, will moderate the debate, with Univision's Ilia Calderón.

Does Trump plan to attend?

Trump will skip the second Republican primary debate to deliver a competing address the same night in Detroit, his campaign said Monday.

The exact time and audience for the event have not been announced yet, but according to the New York Times, which first reported Trump would skip the debate, he will be addressing a union crowd. Trump is expected to speak in the same city where United Auto Workers members are striking to demand higher wages, better schedules and better benefits.

The former president also did not attend the first debate, and instead sat for an interview with Tucker Carlson that streamed at the same time the debate aired. Here's what he said about why he didn't participate: "You see the polls have come out, I'm leading by 50 and 60 points. And some of them are at one and zero and two. And I'm saying, 'Do I sit there for an hour or two hours, whatever it's going to be and get harassed by people that shouldn't even be running for president? Should I be doing that? And a network that isn't particularly friendly, frankly.'"

A week before the second debate, primary opponent Nikki Haley criticized Trump for sitting out the debate. "You can't just not be on a debate stage because you're so high in the polls," she said at an event in New Hampshire Thursday. "You've got to show not what you did in the last four years [but], what are you going to do in the next four, how are you going to fix what was broken?"

Trump has also not signed the RNC's "loyalty pledge" to support the candidate who wins the Republican nomination.

ATTACHMENT SEVEN – From Time

WHICH CANDIDATES WILL BE ON STAGE FOR THE SECOND REPUBLICAN DEBATE?

BY MINI RACKER SEPTEMBER 22, 2023 7:00 AM EDT

After the first Republican presidential debate introduced the country to the candidates and shook up the polls last month, the second debate is set to winnow the field even further.

The debate is scheduled for next Wednesday, September 27. To qualify, candidates needed to draw donations from 50,000 individuals and reach 3% support in two national polls or in a mix of national and early state polls. Their donors must include 200 individuals from 20 different states. Additionally, they needed to sign a loyalty pledge agreeing to support whoever the party eventually nominates. The Republican National Committee set a deadline of Monday for candidates to meet the criteria and has not confirmed who has met the criteria so far.

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Six candidates have told TIME and other outlets that they expect to appear onstage on Wednesday. Like the first debate, this one won’t include former President Donald Trump, who remains the clear frontrunner in most polls. On the evening of the debate, Trump is expected to travel to Michigan to give a speech to striking auto workers.

Here are the six candidates who say they have met the criteria to be on the debate stage:

Ron DeSantis

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis has been viewed for most of the year as Trump’s chief rival for the nomination. But his standing in the polls has fallen and he did not see a bounce in support after the last debate. DeSantis, 44, has faced criticism for his awkwardness on the campaign trail and for embracing right-wing culture war issues that could alienate some voters. Most recently, he has taken heat from Trump over signing a six-week abortion ban, which the former president called “a terrible mistake.” Nonetheless, the Governor won reelection in the Sunshine State last year by 20 points and still usually comes in second, if far below Trump, in national polls.

Vivek Ramaswamy

Biotech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, the right-wing, uber-wealthy author of Woke, Inc., became the focus of attacks during the first Republican debate last month, with his opponents slamming his lack of experience and his foreign policy positions. He has also attracted more scrutiny over the last month over his hardline positions on immigration and his comments about the Sept. 11 attacks. But the 38-year-old is still polling near the top of the field and will again stand center stage next to DeSantis.

Nikki Haley

Former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley’s position in the polls has risen since her standout performance in the first presidential debate last month. During the August debate, Haley advocated for finding a national consensus on abortion and criticized fellow Republicans for not being straight with voters about the difficulty of passing a federal abortion ban. She also attacked Ramaswamy’s foreign policy platform, playing up her experience as Ambassador to the United Nations in the Trump administration. Since the first debate, she has climbed to third in some national polls.

Mike Pence

Former Vice President Mike Pence, long known for his evangelical faith and his close ties to the religious right, also had several standout moments during the last debate, mixing it up with Ramaswamy and defending his decision to certify the results of the 2020 election, which he insists was not stolen. Pence is continuing to run on a promise to restore American values and enact the most anti-abortion policy he can, though he is picking up little traction as he continues to poll in the single digits.

Chris Christie

Former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie has been Trump’s most vocal critic in the Republican presidential field. He was booed at the last debate when he criticized the former President and became one of only two candidates who said they would not support him if he is convicted of crimes, even if he was the GOP nominee. Christie stood behind his performance afterwards, keeping in line with his strategy of framing his campaign in opposition to the former President.

Tim Scott

Since the last debate, South Carolina Senator Tim Scott has continued to focus his campaign on reducing inflation and securing the border, all while emphasizing his personal success story. The only Black Republican in the Senate, he frequently talks about how he was able to overcome disadvantages and achieve the American Dream and touts his signature legislative achievement—Opportunity Zones designed to funnel money into struggling communities. In New Hampshire this week, he named some possible running mates and avoided any direct criticism of Trump, while touching on a few areas of contrast, like his support for a 15-week limit on abortion and his criticism of the United Auto Workers strike. Recently, Scott’s campaign has urged the RNC to weigh early state polls above national ones in deciding which candidates get the best podium placement in the second debate.

Who could still qualify:

Both former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson and North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum were also on the debate stage last month. Neither appeared to have met the qualifications for the second debate as of Thursday. Neither campaign responded to TIME’s request for comment.

ATTACHMENT EIGHT – From USA Today

WHO WILL BE IN THE NEXT REPUBLICAN DEBATE? HERE'S A LOOK WHICH 2024 CANDIDATES WILL HIT THE STAGE

By Sudiksha Kochi

WASHINGTON — All eyes will be on the field of Republican presidential candidates as they hit the stage for the second GOP primary debate next week at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation and Institute - but not every presidential hopeful will be on stage.

The requirements for the second debate in in Simi Valley, California, have a higher threshold than the first event. Candidates must have a minimum of 50,000 unique donors and poll at least 3% in two national polls or 3% in one national poll and 3% in one early state poll from two “carve out” states recognized by the Republican National Committee.

They must also have signed the “Beat Biden” pledge to support the eventual Republican nominee, even if it's one of their political rivals. The deadline to qualify for the debate is Sept. 25.

Six candidates will likely hit the stage in California – a dip from the eight who qualified for the first GOP debate in Wisconsin last month.

GOP frontrunner and former President Donald Trump said he would skip the debates, citing his large lead in polls. He instead plans to visit the Detroit area to speak with striking auto workers.

Here’s who's' expected to appear at the debate next week.

Who has qualified for the second GOP debate?

So far, six candidates appear to have qualified for the second debate:

· Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley

· Businessman Vivek Ramaswamy

· Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis

· Former Vice President Mike Pence

· South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott

· Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie

During the upcoming debate, Republican voters will likely be watching to see whether candidates boost their prior debate performance, or avoid traps from the last event.

For example, DeSantis didn't take swings at Trump during the first debate, but he could take aim at the Republican frontrunner next week.

Ramaswamy is also expected to be center stage again over his lack of political experience and recent controversial comments on Ukraine aid, ending H-1B visas and more. He is likely to have back and forth skirmishes with Pence, who has called for more traditional conservatism and has repeatedly said “this no time for on the job training.”

Scott, who didn’t have a breakout moment at the first debate, is seeking a placement change on stage, according to Axios, likely trying to garner more buzz with his performance. Christie is expected to bring his anti-Trump perspective to the stage while also relying on his experience as a former prosecutor to talk about Trump’s indictments.

Who hasn't qualified for a spot on stage?

The two candidates who don’t appear to have qualified yet are North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum and former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson.

Burgum said he is “fully confident” he will qualify for the second debate in an interview last month. While he has met the donor threshold, he may still need to clear polling hurdles.

Meanwhile, Hutchinson said in an interview with KHBS-TV that he is close to making the second debate.

ATTACHMENT NINE – From NBC
THE GOP DEBATE STAGE COULD SHRINK NEXT WEEK

By Mark Murray, Ben Kamisar, Bridget Bowman and Alexandra Marquez Sept. 19, 2023, 7:39 AM EDT

But FIRST… The Republican debate stage is set to get smaller next week — unless something happens between now and Monday’s qualification deadline.

Two of the GOP hopefuls who participated in last month’s first debate — North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum and former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson — have yet to meet the polling requirements needed to qualify for the debate, according to an NBC News analysis.

That means that just six Republicans would be on the second debate stage if that holds (minus Trump, of course, who plans to skip the debate and speak instead to UAW workers in Detroit).

The six (in alphabetical order): New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, former Vice President Mike Pence, entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy and Sen. Tim Scott, R-S.C.

And it means a lot to make that debate stage.

After all, Mayor Francis Suarez dropped out of the GOP presidential contest after not qualifying for the first debate; few have heard from former Congressman Will Hurd or conservative radio host Larry Elder since they didn’t make it; and most Americans still don’t know who Perry Johnson and Ryan Binkley are.

It also means a lot to perform well at the debate if you make it. We’ve seen Haley’s national poll numbers go up after her aggressive performance, while we’ve seen Scott’s go down after his quiet debut.

So get ready for a smaller debate stage next week.

Unless Burgum, Hutchinson or any of the others meet the polling requirements between now and Monday night.

And our regular note of caution: It’s the Republican National Committee, not our analysis, that’s the final arbiter of who makes the debate stage and who doesn’t.

Eyes on 2024: Trump gets pushback on abortion comments

Former President Donald Trump’s recent comments on abortion during his “Meet the Press” interview have sparked pushback from some of his rivals for the GOP nomination.

Asked if he would sign a federal ban on abortion after 15 weeks of pregnancy, Trump said, “No, no. Let me just tell you what I’d do. I’m going to come together with all groups, and we’re going to have something that’s acceptable.”

He went on to say that an abortion ban “could be state or it could be federal. I don’t frankly care,” later adding that bans at the state level are “probably better, but I can live with it either way.”

ATTACHMENT TEN – From NYT

HALEY HEADS INTO SECOND G.O.P. DEBATE ON THE RISE, MAKING HER A LIKELY TARGET

After her breakout performance at the first debate, the former South Carolina governor has gained attention from Republican voters and donors and is moving up in the polls.

By Jazmine Ulloa Reporting from Iowa and New Hampshire. Sept. 22, 2023, 1:47 p.m. ET

At a campaign event at a scenic country club in Portsmouth, N.H, on Thursday, James Peterson, a businessman, thrilled an audience when he stunned Nikki Haley with a question she said she had never heard before, and which cut straight to the point: 100 years from now, how do you think history will remember Donald Trump?

“I always say, ‘I’ve done over 80 town halls in New Hampshire and Iowa — that’s all the debate prep I need,’ but you take it to a whole new level,” Ms. Haley said to a roar of laughter from roughly 100 Rotary Club members and their guests.

She then took a quick beat before diving into a measured, yet sharpened, critique of Mr. Trump and his administration — the good, the bad, and with some subtlety, the ugly.

“Time does funny things. My thought will be that he was the right president at the right time,” she said, later making clear, “I don’t think he is the right president now.”

Such a thorny question might be just the type of preparation Ms. Haley, 51, the former South Carolina governor and United Nations ambassador, is looking for as she heads into the next Republican presidential debate on Wednesday with real momentum — and as the likely focus of political attacks.

After her last performance on the national debate stage, in which she made a strong general election pitch and tangled with opponents on foreign policy, climate and abortion, Ms. Haley has seen gains in the polls, a rush of volunteers and swelling interest from early-state voters.

Recent surveys have her running third in Iowa and New Hampshire and second in her home state of South Carolina. One CNN survey showed Ms. Haley beating President Biden in a hypothetical general-election matchup.

Some of her top fund-raisers said donors who had been waiting on the sidelines for a Trump alternative to emerge were coalescing behind her. Former Gov. Bruce Rauner of Illinois, a top giver to her rival, Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida, has transferred his allegiance to Ms. Haley.

Another major backer, Eric J. Tanenblatt, an Atlanta businessman who has hosted three fund-raisers for Ms. Haley since March, said the excitement around her candidacy has increased significantly in recent weeks.

“When she was here last week, we didn’t have to call people, people were calling us,” he said. He noted that the size of her events have grown, “each one bigger than the one before.” He added of his most recent gathering: “We had to turn people away — it is a good problem to have.”

But even as Ms. Haley looks to replicate her debate success next week, the 2024 presidential race still appears to be Mr. Trump’s to lose. And with voters and donors starting to pay more attention, her rivals are likely to as well.

Since the last debate, Ms. Haley has mostly split her time between New Hampshire and South Carolina while also making up ground in Iowa. She has continued to burnish her foreign policy credentials, criticize Republicans on spending — which played well in the first debate — and call for a change in generational leadership.

On a farm last week in Grand Mound, Iowa, she drove a corn combine and spoke of the need to fix the legal immigration system to address farmers’ labor shortages against a backdrop of gleaming green tractors and American and Iowa flags. But she also pledged to defund sanctuary cities and send the military into Mexico to tackle drug cartels.

In a packed auditorium at St. Anselm College in Goffstown, N.H., on Friday, Ms. Haley laid out her economic priorities, including eliminating the federal gas and diesel tax, ending green energy subsidies, overhauling social security and Medicare for younger people and withholding the pay of Congress members if they fail to pass a budget.

She criticized both Republican and Democratic presidents for increasing the debt but reserved her toughest broadsides for China and Mr. Biden, whom she accused of plunging the nation into “socialism” and enlarging government, saying he was pouring money into social and corporate welfare programs that she argued were hurting the poor “in the name of helping the poor.”

Her appearances lately have drawn in moderates, independents and even some Democrats who say they like her fresh face and appeals to common sense and reason. “I like her fast thinking and proactive ideas,” said Nancy Wauters, 67, a retired medical office support staffer and an independent voter who went to see Ms. Haley speak at a Des Moines town hall last week after being impressed by her performance in the first debate.

But swaying Trump die-hards who have continued to rally behind the former president has been more difficult. “I like Nikki Haley a lot,” said Barbara Miller, 64, a retired banker, at Ms. Haley’s event in Portsmouth. “But I just feel that Donald Trump is the stronger, more electable candidate.”

When another voter at the country club in Portsmouth pressed Ms. Haley on how she would overcome his advantage, Ms. Haley said she expected the field to winnow after the contests in Iowa and New Hampshire and to come to a “head-to-head” matchup in her home state of South Carolina.

Mr. Trump missing the first debate and now possibly the second was a mistake, she said.

“You can’t win the American people by being absent,” she said.

ATTACHMENT ELEVEN – From Time

TIM SCOTT FLOATS POTENTIAL RUNNING MATES AS HE SEEKS TRACTION IN NEW HAMPSHIRE

BY MINI RACKER/WINDHAM, SEPTEMBER 20, 2023 3:05 PM EDT

“Oh boy,” someone in the audience said through chuckles as the question hung in the air. “Oh boy,” Scott echoed, before rattling off some options: Trey Gowdy, a TV pundit and fellow South Carolinian who served in the House until 2019 (Illegal?); John Ratcliffe, a former Texas congressman who was Director of National Intelligence for less than a year during the Trump administration; New Hampshire Governor Chris Sununu; and Trump-era Secretary of State Mike Pompeo.

Scott described the contenders as aligning with his desire to lead "a team anchored in conservatism that wants to make sure that America remains the city on the hill." But with Scott polling around fifth place in national polls and in-state surveys, even some of his supporters are skeptical his campaign will ever need that list.

Who did that before?

ATTACHMENT TWELVE – From the NY Times

DOUG BURGUM AND ASA HUTCHINSON MAY MISS THE CUT FOR THE NEXT G.O.P. DEBATE

Low poll numbers could keep the long-shot Republicans off the stage next Wednesday in the second presidential primary debate.

By Neil Vigdor Sept. 20, 2023

After eking their way into the first Republican presidential debate last month, longshot candidates Gov. Doug Burgum of North Dakota and former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson, appear to be in jeopardy of failing to qualify for the party’s second debate next week.

DJI Note: Today, Burgum did qualify for the debate (see Update, above and these links: ur;s

Both have been registering support in the low single digits in national polls and in the polls from early nominating states that the Republican National Committee uses to determine eligibility.

The threshold is higher for this debate, happening on Wednesday at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in Simi Valley, Calif. Several better-known G.O.P. rivals are expected to make the cut — but the candidate who is perhaps best known, former President Donald J. Trump, is again planning to skip the debate.

Mr. Trump, who remains the overwhelming front-runner for the party’s nomination despite a maelstrom of indictments against him, will instead give a speech to striking union autoworkers in Michigan.

Who Has Qualified for the Second Republican Presidential Debate?

Six candidates appear to have made the cut for the next debate. Donald J. Trump is not expected to attend.

Some of Mr. Trump’s harshest critics in the G.O.P. have stepped up calls for the party’s bottom-tier candidates to leave the crowded race, consolidating support for a more viable alternative to the former president.

Emma Vaughn, a spokeswoman for the R.N.C., said in an email on Wednesday that candidates have until 48 hours before the debate to qualify. She declined to comment further about which ones had already done so.

Before the first debate on Aug. 23, the R.N.C. announced it was raising its polling and fund-raising thresholds to qualify for the second debate, which will be televised by Fox Business. Candidates must now register at least 3 percent support in a minimum of two national polls accepted by the R.N.C. The threshold for the first debate was 1 percent.

Debate organizers will also recognize a combination of one national poll and polls from at least two of the following early nominating states: Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina.

Mr. Burgum’s campaign has a plan to give him a boost just before the debate, Mr. Trover added, targeting certain Republicans and conservative-leaning independents through video text messages. A super PAC supporting Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida, who is running a distant second to Mr. Trump in Republican polls, has used a similar text messaging strategy.

Mr. Burgum, a former software executive, is also harnessing his wealth to introduce himself to Republicans through television — and at considerable expense. Since the first debate, a super PAC aligned with him has booked about $8 million in national broadcast, live sports and radio advertising, including a $2 million infusion last week, according to Mr. Burgum’s campaign, which is a separate entity. His TV ads appeared during Monday Night Football on ESPN.

As of Wednesday, there were six Republicans who appeared to be meeting the national polling requirement, according to FiveThirtyEight, a polling aggregation site.

That list was led by Mr. Trump, who is ahead of Mr. DeSantis by an average of more than 40 percentage points. The list also includes the multimillionaire entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy; Nikki Haley, the former South Carolina governor and Mr. Trump’s United Nations ambassador; former Vice President Mike Pence; and former Gov. Chris Christie of New Jersey.

And while Senator Tim Scott of South Carolina was averaging only 2.4 percent support nationally as of Wednesday, he is also expected to make the debate stage by relying on a combination of national and early nominating state polls to qualify.

Mr. Scott has performed better in places like Iowa and his home state than in national polls, and his campaign has pressed the R.N.C. to place more emphasis on early nominating states.

The R.N.C. also lifted its fund-raising benchmarks for the second debate. Only candidates who have received financial support from 50,000 donors will make the debate stage — 10,000 more than they needed for the first debate. They must also have at least 200 donors in 20 or more states or territories.

While Mr. Burgum’s campaign said that it had reached the fund-raising threshold, it was not immediately clear whether Mr. Hutchinson had.

Both candidates resorted to some unusual tactics to qualify for the first debate.

Mr. Burgum offered $20 gift cards to anyone who gave at least $1 to his campaign, while Politico reported that Mr. Hutchinson had paid college students for each person they could persuade to contribute to his campaign.

Candidates will still be required to sign a loyalty pledge promising to support the eventual Republican nominee, something that Mr. Trump refused to do before skipping the first debate.

ATTACHMENT THIRTEEN – From the Ventura County Star

REPUBLICAN DEBATE: WHAT TO KNOW BEFORE CANDIDATES FACE OFF AT REAGAN LIBRARY IN SIMI VALLEY

By Cheri Carlson and Tom Kisken

Frontrunner Donald Trump will be in Michigan. But at least six Republicans are set to explain why they should be the country’s next president on Wednesday in the fifth primary debate held at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in Simi Valley since 2007.

Who’s on the hottest seat? Can anyone actually win the debate? Why does the Republican National Committee keep coming back to Simi?

Here’s what we know headed into the second GOP debate of the 2024 election cycle.

When is the second GOP debate and what channel is it on?

The two-hour debate is scheduled to start at 6 p.m. Wednesday. The Fox Business Network, Fox News and Univision will broadcast it. Livestream options Rumble will provide a livestream.

Which Republican candidates have qualified for a spot on stage?

Candidates have until 6 p.m. Monday to qualify for the debate. To do that, they need 50,000 different campaign donors, at least 3% in different polls and to sign a so-called “Beat Biden” pledge to support the eventual GOP nominee.

At least six candidates meet the qualifications: Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, businessman Vivek Ramaswamy, former Vice President Mike Pence; South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott and former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie.

Will former President Donald Trump attend the debate?

Former President Donald Trump has repeatedly said he won’t participate in the Simi Valley event. USA Today reported Monday that his campaign confirmed he will skip the debate and instead fly to Michigan for a speech to striking auto workers and other union members.

Trump, the GOP frontrunner by far, has met the polling and fundraising criteria for the event but has not signed the party loyalty pledge.

Who will be in the hot seat?

Ramaswamy, the firebrand candidate from Ohio, showed he could deflect in the first debate but likely will need to deliver a little more substance this time, said Haco Hoang, a political science professor at California Lutheran University.

DeSantis also will need to come out strong, she said.

At this point, a normal debate would have people attacking the front-runner, said Tim Allison, a political scientist at CSU Channel Islands in Camarillo. But this is anything but a normal debate.

"You have one candidate who is ahead by 40 percentage points," he said. "The other candidates are trying to decide whether they are auditioning for vice president or they're just waiting in the wings, hoping that the front-runner stumbles."

How important is the Simi Valley debate?

In the grand scheme of things, this isn't a debate that will make an impact on a presidential race, Allison said, contending the election could be determined in the court of opinion and the court of law. Trump, the GOP frontrunner, faces four indictments.

"At this point, I think everybody, including voters, are just waiting to see what will happen next," he said. "I doubt anything will change based on the debate."

Who will moderate?

The toughest job of the night will be shared by Stuart Varney and Dana Perino, both of Fox, and Ilia Calderón of Univision. They’ll face the challenge of keeping the debaters in line, on topic and on time.

Can I go to the debate?

Not unless you have pretty serious connections. No tickets are available for the general public. About 735 seats have been divvied up among the Reagan Foundation, the Republican National Committee, Fox Business News and other sponsors. Each candidate at the debate also receives 10 tickets.

More than 400 media members are also expected. Most of them will be watching the debate on large video screens from a tent on the library’s South Lawn.

Why is the debate the Reagan Library in Simi Valley?

Wednesday’s event marks the fifth primary debate held at the Reagan Library since May 4, 2007, when a field of 10 candidates sparred, including former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and Arizona Sen. John McCain, who eventually won the nomination.

The last debate came on Sept. 16, 2015, and featured 15 candidates separated into two groups. Many of the hopefuls in the primetime tier took turns taking on Trump who went on to win the nomination and the presidency.

If you can’t figure out why the GOP keeps coming back to the presidential library, just count how many times Ronald Reagan’s name is mentioned by candidates Wednesday night.

“Reagan is a Republican party icon and hero,” said Tom Hollihan, a USC communications professor who studies media and politics. He also cited the visual attractions of a debate pavilion that features Reagan’s Air Force One jet and the proximity to Southern California’s media empire.

“Los Angeles is where a lot of news gets produced,” he said. “The assumption is there will be generous news coverage.”

Will there be protesters?

Count on it, though it's not clear how many people will gather at Madera Road and Presidential Drive. John Lapper, Democrat and rally organizer, estimates 100 people will protest what he calls the Republican agenda. Other rallies include a group of Trump supporters with signs bearing Make America Great Again themes. The library will be closed to the public Wednesday and no protesters will be allowed on the grounds.

What key issues can you expect?

It will be interesting to see if daylight emerges between the candidates on abortion, Allison said.

"I think the voters are paying attention to that — the broader general public, as well as specifically Republican voters," he said.

Hoang said other topics, from the economy to whether the country or party is headed in the right direction, also are likely to emerge as top issues.

How does someone win the debate?

Allison doesn't know if there is a way to win.

"They can get some attention from the debate. They can be the one that's attacked most or be the one that spends the most time talking or be the one with the best one-liner," the political scientist said. "They can get some coverage and some attention. But I don't think any of these candidates will truly win the debate."

Right now, it is kind of like wanting a position that's not currently open. Candidates are waiting in the wings, hoping the dynamics change or to get enough attention to be Trump's running mate, Allison said.

USA Today contributed to this report.

Cheri Carlson covers the environment and county government for the Ventura County Star. Reach her at cheri.carlson@vcstar.com or 805-437-0260. Tom Kisken covers health care and other news for the Ventura County Star. Reach him at tom.kisken@vcstar.com or 805-437-0255.

ATTACHMENT FOURTEEN – From US News & World Report

TRUMP’S POPULIST PIVOT

The GOP front-runner is trying to peel off voters from constituencies he’s dismissed in the past to reclaim support he lost in 2020. But his base isn’t buying in.

By Susan Milligan Senior Politics Writer Sept. 22, 2023, at 7:20 a.m.

There's a likely major party presidential nominee who is vowing to be a friend of labor union members, a compatriot defender of Black voters who feel unfairly treated by the criminal justice system, and a sage compromiser who can forge an abortion policy that will please almost everyone.

It's GOP front-runner Donald Trump, reinventing himself for the 2024 general election and making Democrats (and some social conservatives) enraged at what they see as a blatantly political lie or a betrayal of the commitments the former president made when he got elected the first time.

Trump played a pivotal role in the stunning reversal of the 1973 Roe v. Wade Supreme Court ruling guaranteeing abortion rights, appointing three of the high court justices who voted in 2022 to reverse the ruling. Trump had also said during his 2016 campaign that there had to be "some sort of punishment" for women who had abortions.

But Trump the 2024 candidate is sounding more like the former businessman who (before he ran for the GOP nomination in 2016) described himself as "very pro-choice" on the issue.

The six-week abortion ban 2024 primary rival Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis signed is "a terrible thing and a terrible mistake," Trump added.

Meanwhile, Trump is making an aggressive pitch for two voter groups who could be pivotal next year: Black voters, who have long voted overwhelmingly for Democrats but who appear in some recent polling to be moving toward Trump, and labor union members, whose leadership is fighting to deprive Trump of another term in the White House.

It's all part of a general election strategy for Trump, who has not yet secured the GOP nomination but must find ways to get back some of the votes he lost to President Joe Biden in 2020, says longtime Democratic strategist Simon Rosenberg.

"It's going to be very difficult for Donald Trump in the election next year, given the fact that he lost the last election" and has legal woes that could cost him more votes, Rosenberg says. "They have to figure out how he's going to gain votes and win over new voters or he cannot win. It's not surprising they're trying to bust out of the 2020 Trump coalition, because the 2020 Trump coalition is not sufficient for him to win. It feels very clumsy and buffoonish," Rosenberg adds.

Still, it might just work, given the fact that the election will likely come down to small groups of voters in a small number of states, says University of Wisconsin-Madison political science professor Howard Schweber.

Wisconsin voters elected a liberal state Supreme Court judge in an upset this year in part because of concerns about abortion rights. And labor union leaders have been critical of the former president.

But if Republicans – under fire for hard-core anti-abortion laws – are successful at casting Democrats as "extremist" on the issue, Trump could woo some voters by presenting some middle-ground position on when abortions could still be legal, Schweber says. On labor rights, the rank and file has been skeptical of Democrats, believing the party did not make working-class voters a priority, he adds, giving Trump an opening.

"On abortion and labor, he is making very smart moves in a place like Wisconsin," Schweber says.

Biden, who has called himself the "most pro-union president in history," made unabashedly pro-union remarks last week defending United Auto Workers, a union holding staggered strikes at sites for all three major automakers. The unions are asking for large pay increases to match the record profits the Big Three automakers are earning – and after the unions made deep concessions to keep the companies afloat during the Great Recession.

UAW President Shawn Fain has called the prospect of another Trump term "a disaster." But Trump – claiming that the union leadership is not serving the members – is banking on peeling off rank-and-file support.

Trump said he will skip next week's Republican primary debate to head to Detroit, where he plans to speak to plumbers, pipe-fitters and electricians, as well as autoworkers.

Union leaders say the effort is a stunt.

"Workers don't believe Trump's lies anymore," says Mary Kay Henry, International president of the Service Employees International Union, which is supporting UAW's action. "Trump's entry in and interference into the demands that the UAW is making is a distraction" from the serious issues the union has with management, Henry adds.

An Unpopularity Contest

"Trump was one of the most anti-worker presidents this country ever had," Rep. Debbie Dingell, a Democrat from swing-state Michigan, told reporters this week in a conference call, noting that in 2016, Trump said it would have been acceptable for the auto companies to go bankrupt and rebuild during the 2008 fiscal crisis. "The last thing Michigan's autoworkers need right now is more empty promises or kerosene on a fire."

Biden improved among union household voters in 2020 from 2016 nominee Hillary Clinton's performance that year, exit polls show. Biden – who touts his Scranton, Pennsylvania, roots and longtime support for organized labor – earned 56% of union household votes, compared to 51% won by Clinton, whose husband, former President Bill Clinton, tangled with unions over trade policy.

But Trump didn't lose much from 2016 to 2020, going from 42% union household support in 2016 to 40% in 2020 – suggesting his record as president didn't affect his standing among rank-and-file union members very much.

Trump is also making a pitch for Black voters, casting his own arrests and voluminous criminal counts as similar to unfair charges brought against Black defendants.

"I just think – especially, again with the [Black] men – they're going to see through" the charges against Trump, "because they've been dealing with this for a long time," Trump's son Donald Trump Jr. said in a Newsmax interview.

Trump claims his polling numbers among Black voters have skyrocketed. Several polls do show him somewhat improved among Black voters. A Quinnipiac University poll in September, for example, showed Trump with 25% support among Black voters.

But those polling numbers are being viewed with skepticism among political analysts, who note that polling of Black voters – including exit polling – has not been indicative of final results in the past. For example, exit polling in 2020 found that 12% of Black voters cast ballots for Trump. A more comprehensive survey by the Pew Research Center found that Trump got just 8 percent of the Black vote.

"This isn't new for him, to cast himself as the champion of Black people. It is a thorn in his side that that is not, in fact, true," says Democratic strategist Adrianne Shropshire, executive director of BlackPAC. "What we know is that Black people are repelled by Donald Trump," overwhelmingly refusing to vote for him or for candidates – Black or not – whom Trump has backed, Shropshire says.

"Black people have a line in the sand, and that line is racism. The reality is, he has a track record," she adds.

Neither the Trump campaign nor New Journey PAC, which supports conservative candidates in districts with substantial Black populations and endorsed Trump in 2020, responded to requests for comment.

Abortion could be the most difficult pivot for Trump, since he is upsetting activists on both ends of the debate.

The former president can't possibly refuse responsibility for the slew of abortion bans and severe restrictions since the Dobbs decision, since he put the people on the Supreme Court who made it happen, says Ryan Stitzlein, vice president of political and government relations for Reproductive Freedom for All (formerly NARAL Pro-Choice America).

"I could sit here and list the litany of things he has said – including that women should be punished for seeking abortion care," Stitzlein says. "He has bragged about being responsible for overthrowing Roe. There is no doubt in our minds who Donald Trump is and who Donald Trump would be if he were ever to return to the presidency."

Trump's squishier remarks on abortion have also upset the anti-abortion community, which has effectively used the Dobbs ruling to shut down or severely limit abortion access in many states.

Protecting the lives of innocent babies is not a “terrible mistake,” Kristen Waggoner, president of Alliance Defending Freedom, said in an e-mailed response to Trump's remarks about DeSantis's six-week ban. "The promise of Dobbs is that legislatures can and should pass laws protecting unborn babies. When legislatures make good on that promise, we should celebrate that courage, not attack it."

None of the anti-abortion groups has yet to pre-emptively reject Trump as the 2024 nominee because of his remarks. And with Trump still holding massive leads over his primary opponents in national and early primary state polls, it may be a moot point. The former president – reinvented or not – appears headed to another nomination for president.

ATTACHMENT FIFTEEN – From NPR

By Don Gonyea September 19, 2023 11:14 AM ET

Former President Donald Trump will skip the debate stage in California on Sept. 27. Instead, he will head to the Motor City that day to join striking union autoworkers as they call for better contract terms from the Big Three automakers, according to a source familiar with the plans.

Trump's forthcoming trip to Detroit is the latest play in his pitch as an attractive alternative to President Biden, the incumbent Democrat who won the UAW's coveted endorsement in 2020. Biden also won a solid majority of the votes of union households in that election, helping him carry battleground states including Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, all states that Trump had won in 2016.

While the UAW has historically endorsed Democratic candidates, the union has so far declined to endorse Biden in his quest for a second term. The union and its new president, Shawn Fain, have said they need to see more from the president before they make any endorsement.

Trump's visit also sets up a unique political triangle between the union and two leaders.

Last week, Biden threw his support behind the UAW after the union went on strike, saying that automakers have not fairly shared the record profits they've made in recent years with the UAW, and need to go further in their offers.

Even as the UAW holds Biden's feet to the fire, the chance that a Trump endorsement from the union is forthcoming is extremely unlikely as Fain has said on more than one occasion that another Trump presidency would be "a disaster."

Responding to Trump's planned visit, Fain did not mince words.

"Every fiber of our union is being poured into fighting the billionaire class and an economy that enriches people like Donald Trump at the expense of workers," Fain said.

"We can't keep electing billionaires and millionaires that don't have any understanding what it is like to live paycheck to paycheck and struggle to get by and expect them to solve the problems of the working class," he continued.

How Shawn Fain, an unlikely and outspoken president, led the UAW to strike

Still, even without a splashy endorsement from the top brass, many union autoworkers are voters and, in swing states like Michigan, Trump showing up for selfies and handshakes could be just appealing enough to some members of a beleaguered workforce.

Skipping the debate

Trump's avoidance of the debate stage is unsurprising. For the first GOP debate in Milwaukee, Trump instead appeared in a one-on-one interview with former Fox News host Tucker Carlson that aired on social media site X.

He and his campaign have repeatedly claimed that because he is a frontrunner in the Republican primary, he does not need to appear alongside the other candidates. In fact, ahead of the first debate, Trump said he did not want to give attention to other campaigns by standing center stage.

"Some of them are at one and zero and two. And I'm saying, 'Do I sit there for an hour or two hours?' Whatever it's going to be, and get harassed by people that shouldn't even be running for president? Should I be doing that?" Trump asked rhetorically in his interview with Carlson.

"I just felt it would be more appropriate not to do the debate," he explained.

But the UAW strike has presented a new kind of opportunity, not just to counter-program but to do so in a way that allows him to be a man of the people, providing a new kind of media narrative.

UAW may not be welcoming

So far, the UAW has not welcomed outside intervention in contract negotiations. After a supportive statement directly from Biden, Fain criticized his viewpoint that negotiations had broken down.

Biden has called himself the "most pro-union president in history" repeatedly and with this high-profile strike in Detroit, that self-assessment will be challenged.

In speaking with union members ahead of the strike, many declined to say who they planned to vote for, but one thread ran through the different conversations — they want the politicians they support to have their backs.

How the UAW strike could have ripple effects across the economy

That is likely why Trump is planning this trip to Detroit. Because if he can meet with autoworkers and hold a Trump-style rally that energizes the crowd, he hopes to show the UAW that he is the candidate who has their best interests at heart.

Importance of Michigan

It is also no accident that Trump is focusing on Detroit. It is the "home area" of the Big Three automakers: General Motors, Ford and Stellantis North America. But it is also a state that got away from Trump in 2020. After Trump won Michigan narrowly in 2016, part of his stunning victory over former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, Biden flipped the state back to blue.

Trump, in his strategy focusing on the general election instead of giving too much attention to the primary, is focusing on these battleground states and Michigan is on that list. With a high population of blue collar workers — many of whom broke for Trump in 2016 — appealing to the labor union could be enough to swing the entire state.

As Trump learned in his previous two general elections, margins matter. And in a state like Michigan, where there are tens of thousands of union autoworkers, performing marginally better could change the outcome.

UAW's unique strike strategy keeps Detroit Big 3 automakers guessing

But Detroit is still a deep-blue city politically and the UAW is still an institution that aligns with Democrats most often. Plus, Michigan isn't as much of a swing state as neighboring Wisconsin or nearby Pennsylvania, particularly with a Democrat in Gov. Gretchen Whitmer and a narrow Democratic majority in the state legislature.

ATTACHMENT SIXTEEN – From the AP

TRUMP PLANS TO MEET WITH STRIKING AUTOWORKERS IN MICHIGAN INSTEAD OF ATTENDING SECOND GOP DEBATE

BY MEG KINNARD Updated 10:34 AM EDT, September 19, 2023

Former President Donald Trump will travel to the battleground state of Michigan next week to meet with striking autoworkers instead of participating in the second Republican presidential debate, a person familiar with his plans said Monday.

Trump, who also skipped the first debate last month, has signaled that he is already focused on the 2024 election against President Joe Biden as he maintains a wide lead against his GOP rivals in primary polls. In recent days, he has been leaning hard into the strike, painting himself as sympathetic to the workers and accusing Biden of trying to destroy the car industry by expanding electric cars and other green energy policies.

The Sept. 27 trip, first reported by The New York Times, will also include a primetime speech, according to the person familiar with the plans who spoke to The Associated Press on condition of anonymity before they were made public.

That’s the date others in the GOP field will gather at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in Simi Valley, California, for the cycle’s second primary debate.

When his fellow GOP contenders gathered in Milwaukee last month, Trump instead took part in a pre-taped interview with Tucker Carlson, which aired on the social media platform formerly known as Twitter during the debate’s first hour.

Trump has long sought to paint himself as a fighter for the “forgotten men and women” of the working class and spent much of his 2016 campaign campaigning in Rust Belt towns suffering from the shift away from mining and manufacturing. Earlier this year, he visited East Palestine, Ohio, after a train derailment, a visit aides have considered a key moment in his campaign as he worked to recover from midterm losses, and as they tried to move his focus away from his 2020 loss.

Ammar Moussa, a Biden campaign spokesperson, said Monday: “Donald Trump is going to Michigan next week to lie to Michigan workers and pretend he didn’t spend his entire failed presidency selling them out at every turn. Instead of standing with workers, Trump cut taxes for the super-wealthy while auto companies shuttered their doors and shipped American jobs overseas.” Moussa argued that Trump would have let auto companies go bankrupt during the financial crisis rather than bail them out, as President Barack Obama did in 2009.

On Monday, the United Auto Workers and Detroit’s Big Three carmakers resumed talks aimed at ending a strike that began last week. Stellantis described the discussion as “constructive.” A spokesperson for General Motors said representatives of the company and the United Auto Workers were continuing to negotiate.

Shawn Fain, the UAW president who has previously said that a second Trump presidency would be a “disaster,” seemed to argue against Trump’s efforts.

“Every fiber of our union is being poured into fighting the billionaire class and an economy that enriches people like Donald Trump at the expense of workers,” Fain said in a statement issued Tuesday. “We can’t keep electing billionaires and millionaires that don’t have any understanding what it is like to live paycheck to paycheck and struggle to get by and expecting them to solve the problems of the working class.”

Dave Green, a UAW regional director in Ohio and Indiana, said the former president’s actions during his time in office give him “zero credibility” with organized labor now, adding that he doesn’t see a way the UAW would ever endorse Trump.

“His only intention here is to try and get votes for himself. And also divide our members against each other using political rhetoric,” Green told The AP on Monday.

Trump earlier this summer traveled to Michigan, where the Oakland County GOP honored him as its Man of the Decade. Asked about the strike in an interview that aired Sunday, he told NBC News that “auto workers will not have any jobs” because “electric cars, automatically, are going to be made in China.”

“The auto workers are being sold down the river by their leadership, and their leadership should endorse Trump,” he added.

ATTACHMENT SEVENTEEN – From FOX

TRUMP TO MEET WITH STRIKING UAW AUTOWORKERS IN DETROIT, SKIP SECOND GOP DEBATE

Published September 18, 2023 7:53PM

FOX 2 (WJBK) - Former President Donald Trump will be coming to Detroit to speak to striking United Auto Workers on Sept. 27 according to a person familiar with his plans said Monday to the Associated Press.

The visit to Detroit - which has not been officially confirmed by Trump or the UAW - means he will skip the upcoming second Republican Primary Debate to be held that same night at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in Simi Valley, California.

The front-running candidate for the Republican nomination skipped the first GOP primary debate as well.

About 13,000 UAW workers are currently on-strike with all of the Big 3. President Shawn Fain has targeted specific plants for current walkouts including the Michigan Assembly in Wayne, owned by Ford Motor Company.

In recent days, he has been leaning hard into the strike, painting himself as sympathetic to the workers and accusing Biden of trying to destroy the car industry by expanding electric cars and other green energy policies.

Trump, on his social media app Truth, has expressed support for the striking workers.

On Sunday he posted: "The United Autoworkers are being sold down the 'drain' with this all Electric Car SCAM. They'll be made in China, under crooked Joe's CHINA FIRST POLICY. AUTOWORKERS, VOTE FOR TRUMP - I'LL MAKE YOU VICTORIOUS & RICH. IF YOUR 'LEADERS' WON'T ENDORSE ME, VOTE THEM OUT OF OFFICE, NOW. WITH THE DEMOCRATS & CROOKED JOE CALLING THE SHOTS, YOU'LL BE JOBLESS & PENNILESS WITHIN 4 YEARS. REMEMBER, BIDEN IS A CROOK WHO HAS BEEN PAID MILLIONS OF DOLLARS BY CHINA, & OTHERS. He is a Manchurian Candidate!!!"

-The Associated Press contributed to this report

ATTACHMENT EIGHTEEN – From CNN

THIRD REPUBLICAN DEBATE WILL BE HELD ON NOVEMBER 8

By Kristen Holmes, CNN Updated 1:21 PM EDT, Fri September 22, 2023

Washington CNN —

The third Republican presidential primary debate will be held on November 8, a source familiar with the event tells CNN.

CNN previously reported that the event will be held in Miami.

The third debate will follow the first 2024 GOP gathering in Milwaukee last month and the second debate scheduled to take place at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in Simi Valley, California, on September 27.

The debates represent the best opportunities for former President Donald Trump’s Republican opponents to reach a national audience. Trump, who has maintained a large lead in national and early-state primary polls, skipped the first debate and told former Fox News host Megyn Kelly that while he would participate in potential general election debates with President Joe Biden, he is unlikely to debate his GOP rivals.

ATTACHMENT NINETEEN – From Fox

RNC RAISING THE BAR FOR CANDIDATES TO MAKE THE STAGE AT NOVEMBER'S THIRD DEBATE

Upping the ante: The RNC raises the qualifying donor and polling thresholds for November's third presidential nomination debate

By Paul Steinhauser Fox News Published September 21, 2023 3:55pm EDT

FIRST ON FOX: The Republican National Committee will raise polling and donor thresholds 2024 primary candidates must reach to make the stage at the third GOP presidential nomination debate, Fox News Digital has learned.

RNC THREATENS TO PULL NEW HAMPSHIRE DEBATE IF STATE LEAPFROGS IOWA IN THE PRESIDENTIAL NOMINATING CALENDAR

Additionally, candidates are also required to sign a pledge in which they agree to support the eventual Republican presidential nominee. They must agree not to participate in any non-RNC sanctioned debates for the rest of the 2024 election cycle and agree to data-sharing with the national party committee.

The thresholds have been rising for each ensuing debate. To make the first showdown, a Fox News-hosted event in Milwaukee on Aug. 23, the candidates needed to hit 1% in polling and have 40,000 donors. Eight candidates ended up facing off in Milwaukee.

THESE REPUBLICAN CANDIDATES ARE SCRAMBLING TO QUALIFY FOR NEXT WEEK'S SECOND PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE

The criteria were raised to 3% in the polls and 50,000 donors for next week's second debate, a FOX Business-hosted showdown taking place Tuesday at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library and Museum in Simi Valley, California.

As of last Thursday, according to a Fox News count, six of the eight candidates who took part in last month's first GOP presidential nomination debate have already reached the RNC's criteria.

A Fox News chart of which candidates have met certain RNC requirements for the second Republican presidential nomination debate and which have not can be seen at the website.

They are — in alphabetical order — former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, former ambassador and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, former Vice President Mike Pence, biotech entrepreneur and political commentator Vivek Ramaswamy, and Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina.

North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum and former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson, who qualified for the first debate, have yet to reach the second showdown's thresholds. See update on Burgum, above.

Former President Donald Trump, who has reached the donor and polling thresholds, did not sign the RNC's pledge. Pointing to his large lead over his rivals for the nomination, he did not attend the first debate and has already made alternate plans for next week's showdown..

ATTACHMENT TWENTY – From The Hill

HERE ARE THE CRITERIA TO QUALIFY FOR THE SECOND GOP PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE

BY JARED GANS - 09/20/23 2:03 PM ET

Time is running out for additional Republican presidential candidates to meet the qualifications to participate in the second GOP presidential debate next week.

Eight candidates participated in the first debate hosted by Fox News in Milwaukee last month, but the Republican National Committee (RNC) has since raised the fundraising and polling requirements, which could narrow the field that qualifies to make the stage this time.

The RNC is requiring candidates attain at least 50,000 unique donors, including at least 200 from 20 states or territories, up from 40,000 required last time.

The candidates also must receive at least 3 percent support in two national polls or in one national poll and in two polls of the four early voting states — Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina. The polls recognized by the RNC must survey at least 800 likely Republican voters and not be from a pollster affiliated with a campaign or candidate committee.

The polling requirement is up from the 1 percent in three national polls or in two national polls and two early voting states required for last month’s event.

Which polls the RNC accepted became a point of contention last time after Miami Mayor Francis Suarez, conservative radio talk show host Larry Elder and businessman Perry Johnson said they qualified for the debate, but the RNC did not recognize their polls, leaving them off the stage.

Elder said he was told he was not included in the debate because one of the polls that would have helped him qualify was tied to former President Trump’s campaign. Suarez said ahead of the debate that candidates who did not qualify should drop out, and he subsequently left the race a week later.

Candidates must meet the fundraising and polling requirements for the second debate at least 48 hours before the debate begins, so they have until Monday.

They also must have signed the RNC’s loyalty pledge, vowing to support the party’s eventual nominee. All the candidates who appeared in the first debate and have already qualified for the second have signed the pledge.

Those candidates are Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, conservative entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, former Vice President Mike Pence, former Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley, South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott and former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie.

Trump has qualified for the second debate but plans to skip it, as he did for the first one. He will instead speak to autoworkers in Detroit amid the United Auto Workers strike against three major automakers — Ford, General Motors and Stellantis.

North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum and former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson both qualified for the first debate and signed the pledge, but they have not yet qualified for next week’s debate at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in California.

Fox Business Network will host the event alongside Univision and Rumble, the online video platform.

ATTACHMENT TWENTY ONE – THE COMPLETE WASHINGTON POST POLL

This Washington Post-ABC News poll was conducted by telephone September 15-20, 2023,

among a random national sample of 1,006 adults, with 75 percent reached on cell phones

and 25 percent on landlines. Results have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus

3.5 percentage points for the full sample, including design effects due to weighting.

Sampling, field work and data processing by Abt Associates of Rockville, MD.

*= less than 0.5 percent

(Full methodological details appended at the end.)

1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Joe Biden is handling his job as president?

Do you approve/disapprove strongly or somewhat?

-------- Approve -------- ------- Disapprove ------ No

NET Strongly Somewhat NET Somewhat Strongly opinion

9/20/23 37 20 17 56 11 45 7

5/3/23 36 18 18 56 9 47 8

2/1/23 42 18 24 53 10 42 5

11/2/22 41 19 23 53 11 42 6

9/21/22 39 22 18 53 11 41 8

4/28/22 42 21 21 52 10 42 6

2/24/22 37 20 18 55 11 44 7

11/10/21 41 19 22 53 10 44 6

9/1/21 44 25 19 51 9 42 5

6/30/21 50 30 19 42 7 35 8

4/21/21 52 34 18 42 7 35 6

2. Looking back, do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump handled his job

when he was president? Do you approve/disapprove strongly or somewhat?

-------- Approve -------- ------- Disapprove ------ No

NET Strongly Somewhat NET Somewhat Strongly opinion

9/20/23 48 33 14 49 8 41 3

Compare to:

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump has handled his job as president?

Do you approve/disapprove strongly or somewhat?

-------- Approve -------- ------- Disapprove ------ No

NET Strongly Somewhat NET Somewhat Strongly opinion

1/13/21 38 27 10 60 8 52 2

10/9/20* 44 30 13 54 9 45 3

9/24/20 44 28 16 53 8 46 2

8/15/20 43 29 15 55 7 47 2

7/15/20 39 28 11 57 9 48 3

5/28/20 45 32 12 53 11 42 3

3/25/20 48 34 15 46 11 35 6

2/17/20 43 31 12 53 11 42 4

1/23/20 44 35 10 51 9 42 4

10/30/19 38 30 8 58 10 48 5

9/5/19 38 27 11 56 8 48 6

7/1/19 44 32 12 53 8 45 3

4/25/19 39 28 12 54 9 45 6

1/24/19 37 28 9 58 9 49 5

11/1/18 40 28 12 53 9 43 8

10/11/18 41 29 12 54 7 46 6

8/29/18 36 24 12 60 7 53 4

4/11/18 40 25 15 56 10 46 4

1/18/18 36 24 13 58 9 49 5

11/1/17 37 25 12 59 8 50 4

9/21/17 39 26 13 57 9 48 4

8/20/17 37 22 15 58 13 45 5

7/13/17 36 25 11 58 10 48 6

4/20/17 42 27 15 53 10 43 5

*10/9/20 and prior “is handling”

3. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Biden is handling [ITEM]?

9/20/23 – Summary table

Approve Disapprove No opinion

a. the economy 30 64 6

b. the immigration situation at the

U.S.-Mexico border 23 62 15

Trend:

a. the economy

Approve Disapprove No opinion

9/20/23 30 64 6

2/1/23 37 58 4

9/21/22 36 57 6

4/28/22 38 57 5

2/24/22 37 58 5

11/10/21 39 55 6

9/1/21 45 49 5

4/21/21 52 41 7

b. the immigration situation at the U.S.-Mexico border

-------- Approve -------- ------- Disapprove ------ No

NET Strongly Somewhat NET Somewhat Strongly opinion

9/20/23 23 NA NA 62 NA NA 15

2/1/23 28 NA NA 59 NA NA 13

6/30/21 33 NA NA 51 NA NA 16

4/21/21 37 16 20 53 10 42 11

Changing topics,

4. Would you describe [ITEM] these days as excellent, good, not so good or poor?

9/20/23 – Summary table

------ Positive ------ ------- Negative ------- No

NET Excellent Good NET Not so good Poor op.

a. the state of the

nation’s economy 25 2 23 74 31 42 1

b. the unemployment rate 35 10 24 57 32 25 8

c. gas or energy prices 12 1 11 87 35 52 2

d. food prices 8 1 8 91 36 55 1

e. the incomes of average

Americans 21 2 19 75 40 35 4

Trend:

a. the state of the nation’s economy

------ Positive ------ ------- Negative ------- No

NET Excellent Good NET Not so good Poor opinion

9/20/23 25 2 23 74 31 42 1

9/21/22 24 3 21 74 36 38 1

2/24/22 24 3 21 75 36 39 1

11/10/21 29 2 26 70 33 38 1

4/21/21 42 4 38 58 37 20 1

9/24/20 40 9 31 59 37 22 1

8/15/20 31 7 24 68 34 33 1

5/28/20 34 8 26 65 40 24 1

9/5/19 56 16 40 43 30 13 1

11/1/18 65 15 49 34 25 9 1

8/29/18 58 12 46 40 31 9 2

1/18/18 58 14 44 40 28 12 2

1/15/17 51 6 45 48 35 14 1

3/29/15 40 2 38 59 40 19 1

1/15/15 41 3 39 58 40 18 1

10/26/14 27 1 26 72 44 28 1

9/7/14 30 1 29 69 42 27 1

4/27/14 29 1 27 71 40 31 1

3/2/14 27 2 26 72 44 28 *

10/20/13 24 2 23 75 45 30 1

9/29/12 RV 18 2 16 81 42 39 *

8/25/12 15 1 14 84 39 45 1

8/5/12* 13 1 12 87 42 44 *

5/20/12 17 1 16 83 47 36 *

2/4/12 11 * 11 89 46 42 *

11/3/11 10 1 9 89 43 47 *

7/17/11 10 1 9 90 40 50 *

6/5/11 11 1 10 89 46 44 *

1/16/11 13 1 12 87 45 41 *

10/28/10 9 * 9 90 41 49 1

10/3/10 9 1 8 90 40 50 *

9/2/10 8 * 7 92 40 53 0

7/11/10 10 1 9 90 44 46 0

6/6/10 12 * 11 88 43 45 0

1/16/09 5 1 5 94 32 62 *

9/22/08 9 * 9 91 34 57 *

4/13/08 10 1 9 90 39 51 *

2/1/08 19 1 18 81 43 38 0

12/9/07 28 3 25 72 40 32 *

11/1/07 35 3 32 64 39 26 *

4/15/07 42 5 37 57 37 20 *

12/11/06 50 7 42 50 36 14 *

10/22/06 55 10 45 45 28 17 *

10/8/06 47 7 40 53 37 16 *

3/5/06 43 5 38 57 37 19 *

1/26/06 40 5 35 60 37 23 *

12/18/05 45 5 39 55 38 17 *

11/2/05 35 3 32 65 36 29 *

9/11/05 40 3 37 59 37 22 1

6/5/05 44 3 40 56 38 19 *

4/24/05 37 2 35 63 44 20 *

9/26/04 RV 46 3 43 53 38 15 1

8/29/04 RV 45 3 41 55 37 18 *

7/25/04 46 4 42 53 39 14 *

6/20/04 45 4 41 55 38 17 *

4/18/04 43 4 39 57 39 18 *

3/7/04 39 2 37 60 38 22 1

1/18/04 42 3 39 58 42 16 0

12/21/03 42 4 39 57 41 16 1

10/29/03 33 1 32 67 45 23 *

9/13/03 30 2 27 70 45 25 *

8/11/03 32 2 30 68 43 25 *

4/30/03 35 1 34 64 46 19 *

2/9/03 28 1 27 72 49 23 *

1/20/03 25 1 25 74 48 26 1

12/15/02 35 1 33 65 44 21 1

11/4/02 LV 28 1 27 72 55 17 1

11/3/02 LV 27 1 26 72 56 17 1

11/2/02 LV 29 1 28 71 54 17 *

9/26/02 31 2 28 69 50 19 *

7/15/02 39 3 36 61 44 17 1

2/21/02 30 1 29 69 51 18 *

1/27/02 31 1 29 69 50 19 *

9/20/01 38 3 35 60 47 14 2

9/9/01 33 1 32 66 47 19 *

7/30/01 50 3 46 50 39 12 *

4/22/01 50 3 47 50 40 9 *

1/15/01 70 10 59 29 24 6 1

10/27/00 LV 86 24 61 14 11 3 *

10/26/00 LV 86 24 61 14 11 3 *

6/11/00 74 17 57 26 19 6 *

2/27/00 80 25 55 20 14 5 *

10/31/99 74 18 56 26 18 7 1

9/2/99 76 19 57 23 16 6 1

3/14/99 80 22 58 19 15 4 1

11/1/98 73 12 61 26 21 5 1

10/13/97 61 12 49 39 27 11 *

*Washington Post-Kaiser Family Foundation

b-e. No trend.

5. Would you say you, yourself, are better off financially than you were when Biden

became president, not as well off, or in about the same shape financially?

Better off Not as well off About the same No opinion

9/20/23 15 44 39 1

2/1/23 16 41 42 1

2/24/22 17 35 47 1

Trump:

11/1/18 25 13 60 2

Obama:

9/22/16 29 25 45 2

1/15/15 25 25 49 2

10/12/14 22 30 46 2

10/28/12 LV 22 33 45 1

9/9/12 RV 20 32 47 *

5/20/12 RV 17 31 51 1

1/15/12 RV 15 31 53 1

11/3/11 RV 13 35 51 1

9/1/11 RV 14 36 50 1

7/18/09 8 27 64 *

G.W. Bush:

10/5/04 LV 30 30 40 1

10/29/03 22 27 50 1

9/13/03 21 30 49 *

8/11/03 17 25 58 1

Clinton:

6/11/00 34 14 50 2

7/19/98 30 15 52 3

3/1/98 32 9 57 1

6/23/96 29 22 49 0

2/27/94 12 17 71 *

G.H.W. Bush:

1/17/93 27 28 44 1

8/9/92 22 32 45 1

6/7/92 19 32 49 *

3/11/92 20 33 46 1

2/2/92 19 31 49 *

12/15/91 17 33 49 *

10/21/91 20 27 53 1

3/4/91 19 18 63 1

Reagan:

1/16/89 42 18 39 1

1/18/87 37 23 40 1

9/8/86 41 20 39 1

On current issues,

6. Do you think the United States is doing too (much), too (little) or about the right

amount to support Ukraine in its war with Russia?

Too Too Right No

much little amount opinion

9/20/23 41 18 31 9

2/1/23 33 19 40 7

4/28/22 14 37 36 13

7. Do you support or oppose the decision by the U.S. Supreme Court elimi nating the

constitutional right to have an abortion? Do you feel that way strongly or somewhat?

-------- Support -------- --------- Oppose -------- No

NET Strongly Somewhat NET Somewhat Strongly opinion

9/20/23 30 21 8 64 11 53 7

5/3/23 27 22 6 66 12 54 7

11/2/22 30 22 8 63 7 56 7

9/21/22 29 21 9 64 11 53 7

8. The federal government might have to partially shut down at the start of next month

because of a dispute over spending and policy issues. Who do you think is mainly

responsible for this situation - (Biden and the Democrats in Congress) or (the

Republicans in Congress)?

Biden and the The Republicans Both Neither No

Democrats in Congress in Congress (vol.) (vol.) opinion

9/20/23 40 33 19 * 8

Compare to:

As you may know, the federal government has been partially shut down because (Trump

and the Republicans in Congress) and (Pelosi and the Democrats in Congress) cannot

agree on laws about border security. Who do you think is mainly responsible for this

situation - (Trump and the Republicans in Congress) or (Pelosi and the Democrats in

Congress)?

Trump and the Pelosi and the Both Neither No

Republicans in Congress Democrats in Congress (vol.) (vol.) opinion

1/24/19 53 34 10 * 3

As you may know, the federal government has been partially shut down because

(Donald Trump and Republicans in Congress) and (Democrats in Congress) cannot agree on

laws about border security. Who do you think is mainly responsible for this situation

- (Trump and Republicans in Congress) or (Democrats in Congress)?

Trump and Republicans Democrats Both Neither No

in Congress in Congress (vol.) (vol.) opinion

1/11/19 53 29 13 2 4

As you may know, the federal government might have to partially shut down later this

week if (Trump and Republicans in Congress) and (Democrats in Congress) cannot agree

on laws about immigration and border security. Who do you think is mainly responsible

for this situation - (Trump and Republicans in Congress) or (the Democrats in

Congress)?

Trump and Republicans Democrats in Both Neither No

in Congress Congress (vol.) (vol.) opinion

1/18/18 48 28 18 1 5

Who do you think was mainly responsible for the partial shutdown of the federal

government - (Obama) or the (Republicans in Congress)?

Both Neither No

Obama Republicans (vol.) (vol.) opinion

10/20/13 29 53 15 1 2

As you may know, the federal government might have to partially shut down later

this month if (the Obama administration) and (the Republicans in Congress) cannot

agree on a plan to keep it running while they work on a new budget. Who do you think

is mainly responsible for this situation - (the Obama administration) or (the

Republicans in Congress)?

Obama Republicans Both (vol.) Neither (vol.) No opinion

3/13/11 31 45 17 2 4

If the federal government shuts down because (Republicans) and (the Obama

administration) cannot agree on a budget, who do you think would be more to blame:

Obama Republicans Both (vol.) Neither (vol.) No opinion

2/27/11 35 36 17 1 10

As you may know, the Clinton administration and the Republicans have agreed to

temporarily reopen the government offices that were closed for nearly three week s

while they worked on a new budget. Whose fault do you think this partial government

shutdown mainly was -- Clinton's or the Republicans' in Congress?

Clinton GOP Both (vol.) Neither (vol.) No opinion

1/7/96* 27 50 20 1 2

1/3/96** 25 44 24 3 3

11/19/95 24 51 20 1 4

11/13/95*** 27 46 20 2 5

*Reworded and phrased in past tense

**“many” changed to “some”

***Phrased in future tense

9. (ASK IF LEANED DEMOCRAT) Would you like the Democratic Party to nominate Biden to

run for a second term as president in 2024, or would you like the Democratic Party to

nominate someone other than Biden as its candidate for president?

Nominate Nominate someone No

Biden other than Biden opinion

9/20/23 33 62 5

5/3/23 36 58 6

2/1/23 31 58 10

9/21/22 35 56 9

10. (ASK IF SOMEONE ELSE) Who would you like the Democratic Party to nominate as its

candidate for president in 2024? (OPEN-END)

9/20/23

Kamala Harris 8

Bernie Sanders 8

Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. 7

Gavin Newsom 3

Elizabeth Warren 2

Marianne Williamson 2

Pete Buttigieg 1

Cory Booker 1

Amy Klobuchar 1

Just someone else 20

Other 8

No opinion 40

9/10 NET

9/20/23

Nominate Biden 33

Nominate someone else NET 62

Kamala Harris 5

Bernie Sanders 5

Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. 4

Gavin Newsom 2

Elizabeth Warren 1

Marianne Williamson 1

Pete Buttigieg 1

Cory Booker *

Amy Klobuchar *

Just someone else 12

Other 5

No opinion 25

No opinion 5

11. (ASK IF LEANED REPUBLICAN) Who would you like the Republican Party to nominate as

its candidate for president in 2024? Which candidate would you lean toward?

9/20/23

Donald Trump 54

Ron DeSantis 15

Nikki Haley 7

Mike Pence 6

Tim Scott 4

Chris Christie 3

Vivek Ramaswamy 3

Doug Burgum *

Asa Hutchinson *

Other 6

No opinion 4

Compare to:

(ASK IF LEANED REPUBLICAN) Who would you like the Republican Party to nominate as its

candidate for president in 2024? (OPEN-END)

5/3/23

Donald Trump 43

Ron DeSantis 20

Mike Pence 2

Chris Christie 1

Nikki Haley 1

Asa Hutchinson 1

Tim Scott 1

Vivek Ramaswamy *

Chris Sununu *

Other 4

No opinion 27

(ASK IF NOT DESANTIS, HALEY, HUTCHINSON, PENCE, SCOTT, OR TRUMP) What if the only

candidates were (Ron DeSantis), (Nikki Haley), (Asa Hutchinson), (Mike Pence), (Tim

Scott), and (Donald Trump) – who would you like the Republican Party to nominate as

its candidate for president in 2024?

5/3/23

Donald Trump 22

Ron DeSantis 16

Nikki Haley 16

Mike Pence 13

Tim Scott 9

Asa Hutchinson 2

None of these (vol.) 3

No opinion 18

NET VOTE PREFERENCE

5/3/23

Donald Trump 51

Ron DeSantis 25

Nikki Haley 6

Mike Pence 6

Tim Scott 4

Asa Hutchinson 1

None of these (vol.) 1

No opinion 6

12. I'd like you to rate the chances that you will vote in the general election for

president in 2024: Are you absolutely certain to vote, will you probably vote, are the

chances 50-50, or less than that?

Don't think Already

Certain Probably Chances Less than will vote voted No

to vote vote 50/50 that (vol.) (vol.) op.

9/20/23 RV 84 7 4 2 1 NA 1

9/20/23 76 8 8 4 3 NA 1

10/9/20 RV 83 5 4 2 * 4 *

9/24/20 RV 89 5 4 2 * * 1

8/15/20 RV 86 5 5 3 1 NA *

7/15/20 RV 86 5 5 2 * NA 1

5/28/20 RV 84 9 4 2 1 NA *

4/25/19 RV 85 8 6 1 * NA 1

10/31/16 RV 72 4 4 3 1 16 0

10/30/16 RV 72 5 4 3 1 15 0

10/29/16 RV 73 6 4 3 1 14 0

10/28/16 RV 76 5 4 3 1 11 0

10/27/16 RV 77 6 4 3 1 9 *

10/26/16 RV 78 6 4 3 * 8 *

10/25/16 RV 79 6 5 3 * 6 *

10/24/16 RV 78 7 5 4 1 5 *

10/23/16 RV 79 7 5 3 1 5 *

10/22/16 RV 80 7 5 2 1 5 *

10/13/16 RV 85 6 5 3 1 1 0

9/22/16 RV 83 7 6 3 * 0 *

9/8/16 RV 81 8 6 5 1 NA *

8/4/16 RV 81 8 6 4 1 NA *

7/14/16 RV 79 10 5 3 1 NA 1

6/23/16 RV 79 8 7 4 2 NA *

5/19/16 RV 80 9 5 3 2 NA *

11/4/12 RV 68 5 4 2 1 20 *

11/3/12 RV 68 6 4 2 1 19 *

11/2/12 RV 70 5 4 2 1 18 *

11/1/12 RV 72 6 4 2 1 16 *

10/31/12 RV 73 6 3 2 1 16 0

10/30/12 RV 75 6 3 2 1 13 *

10/29/12 RV 76 5 4 2 * 12 *

10/28/12 RV 77 5 4 2 1 11 *

10/27/12 RV 79 5 5 2 * 9 *

10/26/12 RV 79 6 5 2 * 8 *

10/25/12 RV 79 6 6 2 1 6 *

10/24/12 RV 79 7 6 2 1 6 *

10/23/12 RV 80 6 6 2 1 5 *

10/22/12 RV 82 5 6 2 1 4 *

10/21/12 RV 84 6 4 2 * 4 *

10/13/12 RV 85 7 4 1 1 1 1

9/29/12 RV 84 7 7 2 * 0 *

9/9/12 RV 83 7 6 4 * NA 0

8/25/12 RV 81 8 6 3 1 *

7/8/12 RV 81 9 8 2 * " *

11/3/08 RV 68 4 3 2 1 22 *

11/2/08 RV 69 4 3 2 1 20 *

11/1/08 RV 71 5 3 2 * 19 *

10/31/08 RV 73 5 3 1 1 16 *

10/30/08 RV 74 6 4 1 * 15 *

10/29/08 RV 76 5 4 1 1 13 1

10/28/08 RV 77 6 4 1 1 11 1

10/27/08 RV 76 6 4 1 1 11 1

10/26/08 RV 78 6 4 1 1 10 *

10/25/08 RV 78 5 5 2 1 10 *

10/24/08 RV 79 5 5 2 1 8 *

10/23/08 RV 80 5 5 2 1 6 *

10/22/08 RV 81 5 5 2 1 5 *

10/21/08 RV 82 6 5 2 1 4 *

10/20/08 RV 81 6 5 3 1 4 *

10/19/08 RV 83 6 5 3 1 4 *

10/11/08 RV 87 5 4 1 * 2 0

9/29/08 RV 87 6 5 1 1 NA *

9/22/08 RV 89 6 4 1 * NA *

9/7/08 RV 85 7 5 1 1 NA *

8/22/08 RV 84 10 4 2 * NA *

7/13/08 RV 79 10 7 3 2 NA 0

6/15/08 71 9 8 7 4 NA *

3/2/08 78 9 7 4 2 NA *

10/31/04 RV 76 6 3 1 1 12 *

10/30/04 RV 78 6 3 1 1 11 *

10/29/04 RV 79 5 3 1 1 11 *

10/28/04 RV 80 5 4 2 * 10 *

10/27/04 RV 81 5 3 2 1 8 *

10/26/04 RV 81 5 3 2 1 8 *

10/25/04 RV 81 6 3 2 1 7 *

10/24/04 RV 82 7 3 2 1 6 *

10/23/04 RV 82 7 3 1 1 6 *

10/22/04 RV 82 7 4 1 * 5 *

10/21/04 RV 82 7 5 1 * 4 *

10/20/04 RV 83 6 4 1 1 4 *

10/19/04 RV 83 6 5 2 1 3 *

10/18/04 RV 84 7 5 2 * 2 *

10/17/04 RV 84 7 5 2 * 2 *

10/16/04 RV 86 6 4 2 * 1 *

10/15/04 RV 87 6 4 2 * 1 *

10/14/04 RV 87 6 3 2 * 1 *

10/13/04 RV 86 7 3 1 1 1 *

10/12/04 RV 87 7 3 1 1 1 *

10/11/04 RV 88 7 3 1 * * *

10/10/04 RV 90 6 2 1 * * 1

10/9/04 RV 90 6 2 1 * * *

10/8/04 RV 90 5 3 1 * * *

10/7/04 RV 89 6 3 1 * * *

10/6/04 RV 87 7 4 1 * * *

10/5/04 RV 87 7 4 1 1 * *

10/4/04 RV 87 8 4 1 1 * *

10/3/04 RV 87 8 3 1 1 * 1

9/26/04 RV 87 8 4 1 * NA *

9/8/04 RV 87 7 4 1 1 *

8/29/04 RV 84 10 4 2 * 0

8/1/04 RV 85 9 4 1 1 *

7/25/04 RV 85 7 5 2 * *

10/29/03 70 12 11 6 1 0

10/15/00 RV 82 10 6 2 1 *

10/9/00 RV 81 10 6 2 * *

10/1/00 RV 81 10 5 3 1 *

9/6/00 RV 78 12 5 3 1 *

8/20/00 RV 78 13 6 3 1 0

8/10/00 RV 79 12 6 1 1 *

8/6/00 64 12 11 8 5 *

7/29/00 61 15 9 11 3 *

7/23/00 59 17 10 11 4 *

6/11/00 60 13 11 10 4 *

5/10/00 63 15 10 8 4 1

4/2/00 62 14 9 9 5 *

3/11/00 63 14 9 9 4 *

2/27/00 69 12 10 4 5 *

2/6/00 67 12 10 8 3 *

1/16/00 65 14 10 6 4 *

12/15/99 64 13 8 9 6 1

10/31/99 72 11 10 5 3 " *

13. If the 2024 presidential election were being held today and the candidates were

(Donald Trump, the Republican) and (Joe Biden, the Democrat), for whom would you vote?

Would you lean toward (Trump) or (Biden)?

Other Neither Would not No

Trump Biden (vol.) (vol.) vote (vol.) opinion

9/20/23 51 42 1 3 2 1

2/1/23 48 44 1 3 2 1

9/21/22 46 48 1 3 1 1

9/20/23 RV 52 42 1 3 1 1

2/1/23 RV 48 45 1 2 2 1

9/21/22 RV 48 46 1 3 1 1

Compare to:

If the candidates for president in 2024 were (Donald Trump, the Republican) and (Joe

Biden, the Democrat), would you (definitely vote for Trump, probably vote for Trump),

(definitely vote for Biden, probably vote for Biden), or are you undecided about that?

Who would you lean toward?

Would

Someone not

- Vote Trump - - Vote Biden - else Neith. vote No

NET Def Prob NET Def Prob Undecid. (vol.) (vol.) (vol.) op

5/3/23 44 36 9 38 32 6 12 1 3 1 *

5/3/23 RV 45 37 8 39 33 6 11 1 3 1 *

Would

Someone not

---- Vote Trump ---- ---- Vote Biden ---- else Neith. vote No

NET Def Prob Lean NET Def Prob Lean (vol.) (vol.) (vol.) op

5/3/23 49 36 9 5 42 32 6 4 1 4 2 1

5/3/23 RV 49 37 8 4 43 33 6 4 2 3 2 1

14. Do you think Joe Biden did or did not legitimately win the 2020 presidential

election? (IF DID NOT) Do you think there has or has not been solid evidence of

widespread voter fraud in the 2020 election?

------- Did not legitimately win -------

Did win Solid evidence No solid No

legitimately NET of fraud evidence of fraud opinion

9/20/23 60 29 22 7 12

Compare to:

Do you think Joe Biden did or did not legitimately win the presidential election?

Did win Did not win No

legitimately legitimately opinion

1/13/21 62 32 6

Regardless of whom you supported in the 2016 election, do you think Donald Trump’s

election as president was legitimate, or was he not legitimately elected?

Legitimate Not legitimate No opinion

10/5/17* 57 42 1

*Washington Post-University of Maryland

15. Trump has been indicted on federal and state charges that he conspired to

illegally overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election and that he illegally

retained classified documents after leaving office. In facing these charges, do you

think Trump is being (held accountable under the law like anyone else), or do you

think he is being (unfairly victimized by his political opponents)?

Held accountable Unfairly victimized No

like anyone else by his political opponents opinion

9/20/23 53 40 7

Compare to:

Donald Trump has been charged in New York with 34 felony counts of falsifying business

records. Do you think this case was brought (appropriately to hold Trump accountable

under the law like anyone else), or (inappropriately to try to hurt Trump

politically)?

Appropriately Inappropriately

to hold Trump to try to hurt

accountable Trump politically No opinion

5/3/23 49 44 7

16. The U.S. Constitution prohibits people who have taken an oath to the Constit ution

from holding public office if they have engaged in insurrection or rebellion against

the United States. Do you think Trump should or should not be prohibited from serving

as president under this provision?

Should be Should not be No

prohibited prohibited opinion

9/20/23 44 50 6

On another subject,

17. Based on what you know, do you think Congress should or should not begin

impeachment proceedings that could lead to Biden being removed from office? Do you

feel that way strongly or somewhat?

Should begin impeachment- Should not begin impeachment No

NET Strongly Somewhat NET Somewhat Strongly opinion

9/20/23 44 34 10 47 12 35 9

Compare to:

Based on what you know, do you think Congress should or should not impeach Trump and

remove him from office? Do you feel that way strongly or only somewhat?

----- Should impeach ---- -- Should not impeach --- No

NET Strongly Somewhat NET Somewhat Strongly opinion

12/15/19 49 38 11 46 12 34 5

10/30/19 49 44 5 47 10 37 4

Based on what you know, do you think Congress should or should not begin impeachment

proceedings that could lead to Trump being removed from office? Do you feel that way

strongly or somewhat?

------ Should begin ----- --- Should not begin ---- No

NET Strongly Somewhat NET Somewhat Strongly opinion

7/1/19 37 29 8 59 13 46 4

4/25/19 37 29 9 56 13 43 6

3/29/19* 41 NA NA 54 NA NA 5

1/24/19 40 33 7 55 13 42 6

8/29/18 49 40 9 46 13 33 5

*3/29 Post-Schar School

Based on what you know, do you think Congress should or should not impeach Clinton and

remove him from office?

--- Should be impeached --- -- Should not be impeached -- No

NET Strongly Somewhat NET Somewhat Strongly opin.

12/6/98 33 NA NA 64 NA NA 3

11/22/98 30 NA NA 66 NA NA 4

11/1/98 27 NA NA 71 NA NA 2

10/25/98 29 NA NA 66 NA NA 5

10/18/98 29 NA NA 68 NA NA 3

10/10/98 31 25 6 64 11 53 4

9/28/98 31 24 7 66 14 52 3

9/21/98 41 NA NA 57 NA NA 2

9/14/98 38 59 3

9/13/98* 30 26 3 64 8 56 6

8/23/98** 24 70 6

8/19/98** 30 65 5

8/17/98** 25 69 6

*Washington Post: "As you may know, the independent counsel Kenneth Starr has

delivered a report to Congress summarizing his investigation of the Lewinsky matter.

Based on what you know or have heard..."

** "If he does not resign, do you think..."

18. The Republican speaker of the House has initiated an inquiry into whether Joe

Biden should be impeached because of alleged involvement in his son’s international

business dealings. In this impeachment inquiry, do you think Biden is being (held

accountable under the law like any president), or do you think he is bei ng (unfairly

victimized by his political opponents)?

Held accountable Unfairly victimized No

like any president by his political opponents opinion

9/20/23 58 32 10

19. (If re-elected, Biden would be 82 years old at the start of his second term) and

(if elected again, Trump would be 78 years old at the start of his second term).

Do you think only (Biden) is too old for another term as president, only (Trump) is

too old for another term as president, both are too old for another term as president,

or neither is too old for another term as president?

Only Biden Only Trump Both are Neither is No

is too old is too old too old too old opinion

9/20/23 26 1 48 23 2

5/3/23 26 1 43 28 3

Party ID. Generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as (a Democrat), (a

Republican), an independent or what?

Democrat Republican Independent Other (vol.) No opinion

9/20/23 25 25 42 5 4

5/3/23 26 25 41 5 3

2/1/23 26 25 40 5 3

11/2/22 27 27 39 4 3

9/21/22 28 24 41 5 2

4/28/22 29 25 40 5 2

2020 VOTE. Did you happen to vote in the last presidential election when Joe Biden ran

against Donald Trump, or did you skip that one? Which candidate did you vote for?

Summary table among 2020 voters

Biden Trump Jorgensen Hawkins Other No opinion

9/20/23 50 46 1 * 2 1

*** END ***

METHODOLOGICAL DETAILS

This poll was jointly sponsored and funded by The Washington Post and ABC News. The

poll is a random sample of adults in the United States, with interviews in English and

Spanish.

This questionnaire was administered with the exact questions in the exact order as

they appear in this document. Demographic questions are not shown. If a question was

asked of a reduced base of the sample, a parenthetical preceding the question

identifies the group asked. Phrases surrounded by parentheticals within questions

indicate clauses that were randomly rotated for respondents.

A dual frame landline and cell phone telephone sample was generated using Random Digit

Dialing procedures by Survey Sampling International (SSI). Interviewers called

landline and cellphone numbers, interviewing the person reached on a cellphone if they

were 18 years or older. For landlines, interviewers requested to speak with the

youngest adult male or female at home. The final sample included 251 interviews

completed on landlines and 755 interviews completed via cellphone, including 586

interviews with adults in cellphone-only households.

This survey uses statistical weighting procedures to account for deviations in the

survey sample from known population characteristics, which helps correct for

differential survey participation and random variation in samples. The overall adult

sample is weighted to correct for differential probabilities of selection among

individuals who are landline-only, cellphone-only or dual users. Results are weighted

match the demographic makeup of the population by sex, region, age, education and

race/ethnicity according to the latest Current Population Survey Social and Economic

Supplement. The sample is also weighted to match the average party identification in