the DON JONES INDEX…
		GAINS POSTED in GREEN LOSSES POSTED in RED 10/16/23... 14,862.25 10/9/23... 14,881.85
	6/27/13… 15,000.00
(THE DOW JONES INDEX: 10/16/23... 33,670.29; 10/9/23... 33,550.27; 6/27/13… 15,000.00)

LESSON for October 16th, 2023 – “SIX THOUSAND YEARS of WAR!”

A week ago, the terrorist gang (turned Governing body of Gaza – turned back to terrorists) Hamas launched a surprise attack on Israel. It was especially surprising to Israeli and American intelligence agencies, which were caught entirely flatfooted by the assault, a failure which significantly enhanced the success of the mission.

With cities destroyed and hostages taken back to Gaza, Israel could do no more than retaliate upon civilian targets, which it has done – quite expedictiously. Currently, the death toll amounts to about a thousand Israelis and foreign Jewish tourists, plus an equal number of Gaza Palestinians... some linked to Hamas, most not.

Media coverage of the carnage in both Israel and Gaza has been ongoing and extensive. That the deployment of an estimated three hundred fifty thousand troops to the border, presumably preparatory to a massive land invasion to seek and destroy Hamas, has raised concerns that the northern border areas between Israel and Lebanon may encourage the neighboring terrorist army, Hezbollah to conduct its own raids into the north (probably urged on and abetted by Iran).

Less visible, although not entirely peaceful, the massive West Bank border area... predominantly Palestinian, but also the site of increasing waves of Jewish settlers, would be a third front in which ongoing negotiations between Israel and Sunni Moslem nations (principally Saudi Arabia and the adjacent Jordan, but also including most of the wealthy Gulf States) could crash, potentially leading to a Three Front war. So it is upon this less-defended and less publicized frontier that our Lesson will be based.

History, contended the anthologist Will Durant, is older than that which Bishop Ussher envisioned... said clergyman being the Archbishop of Armagh and Primate of All Ireland who, in 1650, calculated the date of Creation back from the chronological data in Genesis 5 and 11, (which unbroken male lineage, with numbers of the years, to Abraham being called out of Ur of the Chaldeans in 1922 BC, established the beginnings of time as October 23, 4004 BC -or exactly 6,027 years ago next Monday). Others extrapolated Scriptural language to postulate that the world would end in either 2000 or 1996AD but these, of course, have proven erroneous.

Will Durant prefaced his 1940 introduction to the lives and times of stones, bronze and Iron Age Israelis and Palestinians as reflecting “our Oriental heritage” but, truth be told, that contention... based on archaeological remains of the “Peking Man” circa one million years BC and then considered the earliest human fossils known... have since been eclipsed by even older discoveries in Africa, from whence our two-legged ancestors migrated north and east into China, as well as India, the MidEast and, much later, Europe.

4004 BC, instead, might be considered the beginnings of our historical heriage, being the beginnings, more or less, of the Holocene Epoch, where hominide use of stone gave way to bronze, then iron, writing... thus history... began and civilizations gathered from Egypt eastward to the Orient.

Sources including Wikipedia and the Encyclopedia Brittanica date prehistoric, pre-dynastic settlements in Israel and the West Bank back to the Ahmarian (c.45,000 BC), Kebaran (20,000 BC), Natufian (10,000 BC) and, as of the time that the Bible dates the Garden of Eden, the Chalcolithic and Ghassulian epochs. Thereafter, the Canaanite civilizations engendered the rise of empires (that of the Pharaohs, of course, as also the Assyrian, Babylonian and Persian) while ancient Jewish sources such as Seder Olam Rabbah date the birth of Abraham (patriarch of Muslims, Jews and Christians to 1813 BCE).

Jews of the past, as of the present, lived through multitudes of wars as well as famines and other disasters which birthed emigrations to all corners of Europe and Asia and, eventually, America... eventually reversed by the victorious Allies after World War Two and the Holocaust where the (perhaps somewhat guilty and certainly horrified) victors traipsing through Dachau and Auschwitz decreed a State of Israel (somewhat smaller than the present boundaries) being designated as the Jewish homeland.

They could have carved territory out of the defeated Germany or even... if a warmer and sunnier clime was advisable, Italy. They didn’t. Instead, the Allies... Truman and Churchill and their respective diplomats and minions and humanitarians reverted to the politics of the Crusades of centuries earlier, where Christian invaders from the European states battled with the newer Islamic Empire for dominion in the Holy Land... holy, now, to the three major religions of the West and innumerable sub-creeds and cults within them.

The predominantly Muslim Palestinians were simply kicked out... and such are the (latest) roots of the Israel-Palestine conflict?

Authorities mostly agree that the horrific events over the last week are the culmination of a decades-long (again, actually, millennia-long! – DJI) three-denominational, three-cornered truggle for land, religious dominion and power in this much-disputed region of the Middle East. But most historians, politicians and modern talking heads agree that the presen turning point has to have been the post-Holocaust, post-World War Two designation by the Allies, of the necessity of a Jewish homeland in what was then a British colonial territory in which Sephardic and Ashkenaz Zionites, Sunni and Shiite Muslims, Catholic and Orthodox and numerout Protestant sects bumped butts and banged elbows but, usually, existed in a wary peace.

Geographically, reports Encyclopedia Brittanica (Attachment One) the West Bank “is mostly composed of north-south–oriented limestone hills (conventionally called the Samarian Hills north of Jerusalem and the Judaean Hills south of Jerusalem) having an average height of 2,300 to 3,000 feet (700 to 900 metres). The hills descend eastwardly to the low-lying Great Rift Valley of the Jordan River and the Dead Sea.

“Within its present boundaries, the West Bank represents the portion of the former mandate retained in 1948 by the Arab forces that entered Palestine after the departure of the British. The borders and status of the area were established by the Jordanian-Israeli armistice of April 3, 1949. In the decades that followed the armistice, Jordan, Israel, and the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO) each laid claim to the approximately 2,180-square-mile (5,650-square-km) area.”

During the 1948 war between Israel and several Arab countries, “hundreds of thousands of Palestinian refugees either fled or were forcibly displaced by the Israeli military. (Axios, Attachment Two)

“A second, but smaller wave, of Palestinian refugees fled the West Bank during the 1967 war between Israel and the Arab countries.

“Most of the Palestinian refugees in these two waves ended up in Jordan and some still live in refugee camps there.

Now, Israel has notified the UN that the approximately 1.1 million Palestinians living north of Wadi Gaza should evacuate to the southern part of the Gaza Strip within 24 hours. SecState Blinken met with PLO President Mahmoud Abbas who... despite the long history of infighting between Hamas and the PLO... warned against the forced displacement of Palestinians from Gaza.

"This will be a second Nakba," Abbas said in a statement, referring to the "catastrophe," which marked the displacement of hundreds of thousands of Palestinians during the events that led to Israel's founding in 1948.

Gaza is a small area bordering Israel and Egypt on the Mediterranean Sea. It is one of two Palestinian territories - the other being the Israeli-occupied West Bank (Washington Post, October 9, Attachment Three)

“Gaza was part of the Ottoman Empire before being occupied by Britain from 1918 to 1948 and Egypt from 1948 to 1967. Nearly 20 years after Israel declared its statehood in 1948, the country captured the Gaza Strip from Egypt and the West Bank from Jordan in the 1967 war.”

Hamas emerged in 1987 as an offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood during the First Intifada, 1990-4... a stretch of “nearly four years of protests, riots and bombings in the Palestinian territories and Israel over Israeli occupation of the Gaza Strip and West Bank.” The bloodshed led Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin to say in 1992: “I would like Gaza to sink into the sea, but that won’t happen, and a solution must be found.”

Instead, Hamas came to power in Gaza after winning a 2006 election. Israel, which has kept a land, air and sea blockade on Gaza since 2007, has faced criticism by human rights groups and United Nations; the International Committee of the Red Cross has gone one step further in recent years – saying that the blockade violates the Geneva Conventions — a claim that Israeli officials have rejected.

Many Palestinians were displaced after the 1948 and 1967 wars. (Brittanica, Attachment One, above) “About 300,000 Palestinians (most of whom were originally from territory captured by Israel in 1948) left the impoverished West Bank for Transjordan (later Jordan) during the year after the 1948 war; and about 380,000 Palestinians fled the West Bank after it was captured by the Israelis in 1967. Between 1967 and 1977 an estimated 6,300 Palestinians were evicted from East Jerusalem and replaced by Jewish immigrants, and many others lost their residency rights under the 1992–96 government of Benjamin Netanyahu. (Brittanica, above)

In 2006 parliamentary elections, Fatah—an influential force in Palestinian politics since its foundation by Yasser Arafat in the 1950s—suffered a decisive loss to Hamas, reflecting years of dissatisfaction with Fatah’s governance, which was criticized as corrupt and inefficient. The victory of Hamas, a group that was regarded by many as a terrorist organization, resulted in sanctions and boycotts from Israel, the United States, and the European Union. In 2007, with violence escalating in the Gaza Strip and the failure of a coalition government, PA president Mahmoud Abbas dissolved the Hamas-led government and established in its place an emergency cabinet favouring Fatah. The increasingly violent power struggle between Hamas and Fatah resulted in a split between the West Bank, run by Fatah through the emergency PA government, and the Gaza Strip, controlled by Hamas.

Many observers believe the Hamas attacks on southern Israel on Saturday were triggered by unchecked violence instigated and perpetrated by Israeli settlers in the occupied West Bank. In recent years, there have been numerous cases of hit and burn attacks against Palestinians and their properties near new illegal settlements without any attempt by the Israeli army to prevent the settler rampages. (Al Jazeera, October 13^th, Attachment Four)

“Unlike the Palestinian Authority, Hamas does not recognize the existence of Israel and is committed to replacing it through armed struggle with a Palestinian state stretching from the Mediterranean Sea to the Jordan River.

“Since winning legislative elections in 2006, Hamas has repeatedly attacked Israel with rockets and mortars, emerging as a defiant adversary. Israel has retaliated with its superior firepower and a punishing blockade, restricting imports and the movement of civilians in a strategy of collective punishment. The blockade and recurring Israeli strikes have contributed to Gaza’s poor infrastructure and living conditions.” (WashPost, October 11^th, Attachment Five)

Who are Hamas leaders?

“Within Gaza, Hamas is currently led by the elusive Yahya Sinwar... Ismail Haniyeh, considered Hamas’s top political leader, and reported to live in Qatar, and Mohammed Deif, the head of Hamas’s military wing, have taken control of most public messaging from the group over recent years,” according to the WashPot/

The group’s spiritual leader, Sheikh Ahmed Yassin, holds an uncompromising view... dedicated to extinguishing the existence of the state of Israel. Armed violence is part of that struggle, modelling on the fedayeen, Palestinian armed groups that emerged in the 1950s after the establishment of the state of Israel and now known as the Izz ad-Din al Qassam brigades [al-Qassam brigades] who, from their very beginning, have embraced the use of terror tactics against Israel, carrying out their first suicide bombing in 1993 in conjunction with Islamic Jihad according to Peter Beaumont of GUK (October 12, Attachment Six), who adds, however, that the movement attracts substantial popular support, incorporating “...teachers, surgeons, urban planners and police in its civil administration of Gaza.

“The reality is Hamas is many things. While it runs Gaza’s health service, it is also a sinister organisation committed to the mass murder of Israelis. It administers the education service while its police have broken the bones of children caught wearing scarfs signalling family affiliation with the rival Fatah movement. It runs the courts while, during the 2014 Gaza war, its forces abducted, tortured and murdered Palestinians accused of “collaborating” with Israel and others.

“It is unavoidably part of the fabric of the life in Gaza.”

While Hamas, which had built its appeal on “lacking the corruption of its rival Fatah,” it proved to be brutal and often greedy. Senior figures were implicated in damaging pyramid schemes (sic) linked to the once-flourishing smuggling tunnels to Egypt.

Big villas appeared in its southern strongholds. Analysts would speak of a “black budget” which funnelled money to the military wing and powerful individuals. Prior to the attacks a Hamas delegation visited Moscow and Saudi Arabia (for the first time in seven years) as it sought a wider international hearing until Daif and Sinwar renewed their policy of “all-out war.”

The West Bank, from 1950 until it was occupied by Israel in the Six-Day War of 1967, was governed as part of Jordan, though it was divided from the Jordanian population of the East Bank by the Jordan River. (Brittanica, above) “The relationship between the East and West banks was uneasy, both because of Palestinian suspicions of the (Jordanian) Hashemite dynasty and because of the aspirations of Palestinians in the West Bank for a separate state.

“During the 1967 war, Israel occupied the West Bank and established a military administration throughout the area, except in East Jerusalem, which Israel incorporated into itself, extending Israeli citizenship, law, and civil administration to the area.

“This period of relative calm began to wane during the late 1970s and early ’80s as Israel began a more aggressive course of establishing settlements (Brittanica) and by the early ’80s “the settlements numbered in the scores. Land, businesses, and buildings were expropriated from the Palestinian inhabitants,” and during the administration of Menachem Begin (1979–83), the number of Israeli settlements more than tripled, and the number of Israeli settlers increased more than fivefold.

The chief political representative of the West Bank Palestinians, the PLO, refused to negotiate with Israel and, until 1988, was unwilling to recognize Israel’s right to exist; Israel refused to negotiate with or recognize the PLO for years after that date... until 1993 when Israel and the PLO reached agreement in September on a plan to “gradually extend self-government to the Palestinians of the West Bank (and Gaza Strip) over a five-year period prior to a final settlement of the issue of Palestinian statehood.” (Brittanica)

After the attacks by Hamas that started Oct. 7, Time reporter Olivia Waxman reported that Meron Medzini, press secretary to the Prime Minister Golda Meir during the war that Israel fought against Egypt and Syria in 1973. Now 91, he feels a sense of deja vu in Jerusale – remembering war cabinet meetings in Tel Aviv, which he says Meir conducted with two packs of Chesterfield cigarettes and innumerable cups of coffee. Medzini traveled with foreign correspondents to the frontlines, and to this day, he says he can still see the dead bodies and burning tanks vividly. (October 11^th, Attachment Nine)

“(With) more than 1,200 Israeli casualties in about four days—a number that could surpass the 2,600 casualties” in the 19-day Yom Kippur war, Medzini says: “We were more angry at the fact that we were caught unprepared. This time we feel that there's a totally different enemy.”

An enemy whose numan origins both Israelis and Americans now question.

Abraham Rabinovich, author of “The Yom Kippur War: The Epic Encounter That Transformed the Middle East” disagrees with Medzina inasmuch as that “(o)ne similarity between the 1973 war and the 2023 war is the idea that Israel was caught off guard. The 2023 war started on a Saturday, when many Israelis stay home to observe the Sabbath, while the 1973 war started on Yom Kippur, a holy day when many Israeli businesses are closed so they can go to synagogue.”

More to the point, the vaunted Mossad intelligence agents, like their counterparts in America’s initialed offices, were also caught off guard. (See below)

Israel would end up winning the roughly three-week war, empowered by weapons and military aid from the United States. Israeli forces marched across the Suez canal into Egypt and pushed back the Syrians from Golan Heights, launching an offensive in Syria. For now, however, any possibility of aid for Israel is stuck as the U.S. House of Representatives remains without a Speaker.

In 1973, Egypt’s goal in crossing the Suez Canal was to force Israel to the negotiation table to make a peace deal and get back control of the Sinai peninsula. According to Avi Shilon, a historian who teaches at Tel-Hai College in Israel, “The Egyptian and the Syrians didn't plan to conquer Israel. They planned to hit Israel and to force Israel to go into negotiations.”

Now, however, the objective is similar (even if fanciful)... extermination of the state and the Jews. Perhaps Hamas is hoping that a wider war can draw Iran’s nuclear weaponry into the combat, or that a massive overreaction will convinve the world, including the United States, to switch sides.

Or maybe they are simply delusional.

Three days earlier, three other Time correspondents suggested that a less drastic motive on the part of Hamas might have been to derail the growing possibility of a treaty between Israel and the anti-Tehran Sunni Arab gulf states, principally the Saudis... whose enmity has moderated as the West Bank, nominally under the suzereignity of the anti-Fatah Mahmoud Abbas and the P.L.O. (despite the more numerous and more aggressive settlers)... remained largely quiet.

History again echoes, as the predicate for Hamas’ attack had less to do with anything that the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu may have done—now is not the moment to blame the victim. Rather, the trigger to the attack was likely that the prospect of a wider Mideast peace was almost at hand through an impending deal between Israel and Saudi Arabia. Hamas’ sabotage parallels the disruption of the prospective Israeli-Palestinian peace plan in 2000 on the heels of a Camp David Summit when the devastation of the Second Intifada ruined any dreams of normalization and resulted in the deaths of thousands of civilians.

“This time, by all accounts, Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the United States were inching closer towards a transformative three-way deal, which would have seen Israel and Saudi formally recognize each other within a security, defense, and economic partnership with the U.S. Just a week ago, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman said that “every day we get closer” to a deal, while Netanyahu similarly stated that he was confident of forging “a historic peace” between his country and Saudi Arabia, with Israeli cabinet ministers already landing in Riyadh to “nurture blossoming ties.” (October 8^th, Attachment Ten)

Attachment Ten further includes the Ten Questions that Time and others (notably Bloomberg) ask and, to their subjective mind, answer. As Israel expanded its settlement activity in the territory after 2000 until, by 2020, many in Israel were calling for the annexation of parts of the West Bank, Time and Bloomberg concluded: “This is a bloody, murderous way of saying, “Don’t forget us, we are Hamas. We’re still here, and we’re still angry.”

Today, the proposed ground invasion of Gaza... which has escalated in potentiality from “coming” to “impending” on televised news coverage (but, say the talking heads, has been delayed only because of bad weather)... may injure or even destroy Hamas (with its reported tens of thousands of fighters and network of tunnels deep underground) but the expected thousands of civilian casualities will only deepen, darken and prolong Palestinian anger. Even if every single Hamas fighter is terminated, stories will be told and in another generation, new terrorists will rise up, resist and seek revenge. It might occur under a different name, but the tactics will be the same.

The prospect of a new civilian holocaust has terrified many international humanitarian agencies still willing to defend the humanity of Gaza’s civilian by discriminating between the population and Hamas.

One of these, MSF (Doctors Without Borders, in English) called the Israeli order to evacuate northern Gaza ‘outrageous’, advocating for “safe spaces and safe passage” for civilians trapped in Gaza (including Frenchmen, women and children, Americans, other Europeans and holders of valid exit papers from all over the globe – many stalled at the Rafah Egyptian border checkpoint as a different breed of hostages and human shields as Cairo lobbies Tel Aviv to restore food, fuel and water to the civilians of Gaza.

“Ordering such large numbers of people to move in such a short period of time is impossible and will only worsen this humanitarian crisis. As for the many civilians who will not be able to leave the northern Gaza Strip, MSF is extremely concerned about their fate once the Israeli deadline expires,” the group declared in its statement (October 13^th, Attachment Eleven) which forced exodus was continuing as of this morning. 

“This represents an attack on medical care and on humanity. We are talking about more than a million human beings,” they declared. 

“'Unprecedented' doesn’t even cover the medical humanitarian impact of this. Gaza is being flattened, thousands of people are dying. This must stop now. We condemn Israel’s demand in the strongest possible terms.”

Adding a postscript from MSF-USA executive director Avril Benoît, DWB/MSF called “for all parties to the conflict to ensure the safety of civilians and medical facilities,” and reporting that hospitals in Gaza “are becoming overwhelmed and experiencing shortages of drugs, medical supplies, and fuel for generators.”

As noted in our Sunday timeline (below) “...there are so many dead that the morgues there are using ice cream wagons to hold the corpses.” - DJI

The liberal (one might say pro-Palestinian) Guardian U.K. stated that, while condemning the unjustified acts of aggression from the Palestinian armed groups Hamas and Islamic Jihad, “it is crucial to recognise the undeniable trauma inflicted on Palestinians over the years,” as argued West Bank journalist Fatima AbdulKarim (October 10^th, Attachment Twelve) who added: “We are living through yet another phase in the cycle of adversity that defines life in this occupied territory.

“Some,” she accused, have described the attack as “unprovoked”, but “history would suggest otherwise.

“In the West Bank, the territory where I live,” wrote AbdulKarim, “we struggle to live normal lives. Recent years have been marked by soaring deaths, demolitions and displacements, witnessed and documented by international NGOs, the UN and diplomatic representatives. Yet no action has followed.

“A heavy military presence is converging on the area and we expect an escalation in the number and range of violent settler attacks. Expect, too, more lone wolf attacks by Palestinians against military posts or settlers, an inevitability given the gravity of the casualties.”

Cleaning Hamas out of Gaza will not be easy... with or without consideration for civilians. “Urban assaults, like what will be required to control the densely populated areas of the Gaza Strip, are among the most difficult and deadly operations a military can attempt,” wrote Cecelia Smith-Schoenwalder of the U.S. News and World Report (October 12, 2023, at 6:48 p.m., Attachment Thirteen)

Writing upon the civilian issues, she noted that, as of four days ago: “More than 180,000 Palestinians in Gaza are packed into United Nations shelters. But even such shelters, which should be safe zones, can be at risk during wartime.”

The number is much greater now.

“Gaza is among the most densely populated places on earth, and urban assaults are among the most difficult and deadly of all operations a military can attempt,” she cited experts at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, who wrote in an analysis and quoted Bill Roggio, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, who predicted: “They're going to look to try to limit the civilian casualties as best as possible, but it's going to be really difficult for the Israelis to do.”

“In order to fully achieve the objective of destroying Hamas military capability in Gaza, ground forces will require weeks, if not months,” forecast John Spencer, chair of urban warfare studies in the Modern War Institute’s analysis. “This is the unavoidable nature of clearing urban terrain.”

Another strategy the Israeli military is likely anticipating is the use of human shields, which Hamas has been known to do. Hamas is believed to be holding about 150 hostages.

Roggio says it doesn’t seem likely that Israel will halt everything and negotiate releases that would probably involve prisoner exchanges.

“I don't see that being acceptable to the Israeli people,” he says. “They can't be constrained with what they're going to do militarily by them holding hostages. The rules in this game have changed.”

And that will leave the rescue of American hostages up to whomsoever waits on the USS Gerald Ford, offshore, and, very soon, the USS Eisenhower... U.S. boots on the ground being likely to invite involvement from Hezbollah, and maybe Iran. And if the hostages are slaughtered... before or after any American invasion... what reprisals will be in the offing?

And will Hamas regroup or, if completely eradicated, be replaced... and, if so, by whom?

For the Israelis intereviewed by Fetta Prince-Gibson, a current and former editor of several Israeli publications writing for Time (Attachment Fourteen) most are “living with the realization that every possible horrible thing that we thought could never happen has happened,” but... contrary to her fears... more horrible things await just around the corner.

Already, she reports, Israelis are talking about a mechdal, best translated as the failure, or the screw-up. But the English translation doesn't convey the deep horror, sadness, fear, insecurity and, maybe above all, dread that has gripped Israeli society.

And the anger.

“Our own institutions have failed us,” many now believe. “It took the army eight to ten hours to get to the people who were calling their families and even public radio stations from their supposed safe rooms, begging for help and rescue. Our government has abandoned us, too. The Prime Minister has not yet visited any of the victims, and few of his 33-seat government have, either. The Prime Minister has gone on television several times to promise revenge and a putative victory, but has not offered words of comfort or hope. The logistical relief that democratic caring governments are supposed to provide is being provided by civil society.

“Israelis are divided about how to respond to the government's obtuse lack of compassion and inadequacy. Some, including many who oppose the government and have been part of the protest movement, are calling for unity, saying now is not the time to deal with political divisiveness. Many are calling for a unity government (as I wrote these words, one was announced). Others are demanding that Netanyahu and his government resign immediately, fearful that this government, composed of messianic extremists, nationalist fundamentalists, and an indicted prime minister who needs the government to stay out of jail, is incapable of dealing with the geopolitical challenges and moral dilemmas that we will face in the coming weeks.”

Sounds like another country, doesn’t it... a country with a dysfunctional legislature full of zealots and psychopaths, a few compassionate but overwhelmed politicians and... waiting in the wings, another elected, defeated and four times (so far) indicted aspirant (far, far ahead for his party’s nomination and dead-even in the next Presidential election) who also needs restoration “to stay out of jail.”

As Michael Jackson used to advise, before his demise, look to “the man in the mirror.”

So the United States, and rest of what passes for the civilized world... Russia, China, NoKo, a few sycophants from Belarus to Cuba, a few more authoritarian regimes in Africa, Asia and Latin America excepted... are reduced to pleading with Israel to hold off on the ground invasion inasmuch as the UN already considers Gaza a “hell hole” or, at least, not to use white phosphorus munitions reminiscent of Holocaust zyklon gas on civilian targets and with Egypt to allow “safe corridors for fleeing refugees.” (Reuters, Attachment Fifteen... noting Israeli Defence Ministar Yoav Gallant’s less-than-gallant statement that: "This is a war for the existence of Israel as a prosperous state, as a democratic state, as homeland of the Jewish people."

Politically incorrect to mention it, but there are plenty of Americans on the streets and in Congress that would be as reluctant to shovel more money into Jews as they already are to Ukrainians.

A few more Reuters (as opposed to Reese’s) Pieces include...

Not only are overcrowded hospitals resorting to ice cream truck morgues, mourning families are reporting that Israeli air strikes make cemeteries so dangerous that the dead are being buried in informal graveyards dug in empty lots...

In Baghdad tens of thousands of Iraqis rallied in central Tahrir Square, waving Palestinian flags and burning the Israeli flag while chanting anti-U.S. and anti-Israeli slogans... Jewish communities, in response are holding international solidarity rallies in France, Poland and, in the United State, police are trying to separate increasingly violent protest factions while, as our Index reported (below) a man in the Chicago suburbs stabbed a six year old Muslim 23 times to express his support for Israel.

The Israel-Hamas war upends Biden's two-pronged Mideast strategy: brokering Israeli-Saudi detente and containing Iran's nuclear ambitions.

The G20 chair, India, said the Middle East conflict raises fuel price concerns.

And, showing the money...

United Arab Emirates stock markets tumbled on Friday, tracking global equities as a widening conflict between Hamas militants and Israel made investors nervous.

The WashPost (October 13, Attachment Sixteen) reported that Reuters journalist Issam Abdallah was killed in southern Lebanon on Friday while covering clashes there. “Six other journalists were injured, including two from the Al Jazeera news channel, after the journalists were struck by what Al Jazeera said was Israeli shelling.”

Reuters journalist killed in southern Lebanon, agency says

Israel, the Post reported, also said it had notified the families of 120 hostages taken captive by Hamas during its cross-border assault. Washington is working closely with Israel to secure the release of hostages, including Americans, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said from Tel Aviv.

Austin said the United States “stands fully ready to deploy additional assets” after sending weapons to Israel and the USS Gerald R. Ford carrier strike group to the region. Secretary of State Antony Blinken visited Amman, where he met with Mahmoud Abbas, head of the Palestinian Authority, and King Abdullah II of Jordan.

Time reported that Jordanian riot police on Friday had forcibly dispersed hundreds of pro-Palestinian protesters trying to reach a border zone with the Israeli-occupied West Bank as thousands held anti-Israel demonstrations across the country, witnesses said.

“Jordan is worried that a regional widening of violence arising from the war between Israel and Palestinian Islamist group Hamas in Gaza could have repercussions for itself given that a large percentage of its population are Palestinians.”

The existant peace treaty remains widely unpopular among Jordanians who see normalisation with Israel as a sellout of the rights of their Palestinian brethren seeking to establish a state in Israeli-occupied territories – which dissension escalated after the Israeli evacuation order, which includes Gaza City, home to hundreds of thousands of Palestinians, sparked widespread panic among civilians and aid workers already running from Israeli airstrikes and contending with a total siege and a territory-wide blackout. (Time, October 13^th, Attachment Seventeen)

“Forget about food, forget about electricity, forget about fuel. The only concern now is just if you’ll make it, if you’re going to live,” said Nebal Farsakh, a spokesperson for the Palestinian Red Crescent in Gaza City, as she broke into heaving sobs.

Hamas, meanwhile, called on Palestinians to stay in their homes, saying Israel “is trying to create confusion among citizens and harm the cohesion of our internal front.” It called on Palestinians to ignore what it said was ”psychological warfare.”

Gaza’s Health Ministry said it was not possible to evacuate the many wounded from hospitals, and that hospital staff would not heed the warning.

In the West Bank, the Islamic endowment that manages a flashpoint holy site in the city, the Al-Aqsa Mosque compound, said “Israeli authorities were barring all Palestinian men under the age of 50 from entering.”

Pressed by reporters on whether the army would protect hospitals, U.N. shelters and other civilian locations, Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari, the Israeli military spokesperson, warned that “it’s a war zone.”

He added: “If Hamas prevents residents from evacuating, the responsibility lies with them.”

The Hamas “Day of Rage” may not have accomplished much in Gaza, but occasioned “massive security” in American cities.

U.S. Capitol Police and the Metropolitan Police Department said that, although there were no specific threats to the District of Columbia or Congress, they were increasing their visibility Friday out of an abundance of caution.

"We are enhancing security throughout the Capitol Complex. Some of what we are doing will be visible, but for safety reasons we cannot provide the public details about all of the resources that we are putting into protecting the Congress," the U.S. Capitol Police told Fox News Digital in a statement. (Friday, October 13^th, Attachment Eighteen) "Our dedicated teams are working around the clock to coordinate with our law enforcement and intelligence partners across the country to keep everyone safe."

Fencing was put up around the U.S. Capitol Building and... to bring back a plague-era warning... DC police romised that "out of an abundance of caution”, swarming cops woult surround “places of worship (so as) to help ensure the safety of our community."

"We are working closely with our law enforcement partners across the country to share information and identify and disrupt any threats that may emerge," a FBI spokesperson told Fox.

“I feel a little safer today knowing I live in america and can keep my pistol on my hip when walking through downtown,” posted a Fox peanut to its gallery. “I think this whole thing is a tragedy and hate to see people hurt or lose their life. With that being said, I will gladly protect myself, my family, and any innocent person if I see them attacked by a knife welding sympathizer. Send them to Allah in a quick second and I wont feel bad about it.”

And a wingnut landlord in Chicago took up the offer yesterday, stabbing his Muslim tenant six times and her son twenty three times, killing him (timeline, below)

“Creepy uncle Joe and his supporters have been a National Security Risk for nearly 3 full years and it’s only by God’s Grace we haven’t suffered a terrorist attack; yet,” posted another peanut from the Fox gallery and, in this case, the contention was backed up by the Washington Post (October 12^th, Attachment Nineteen) reporting that American intelligence, as of early this year, “saw a predictable if still violent balance between Israel and Hezbollah diminishing the risk of a full-scale war in 2023.”

Oops!

Hamas’ attack “took Israeli and U.S. officials almost completely by surprise,” according to an analysis prepared in February by the intelligence directorate for the Joint Chiefs of Staff; Israel and Hezbollah having settled into a posture of “mutual deterrence” since the conclusion of a historic agreement, in October 2022, in which Lebanon and Israel agreed to demarcate their contested maritime borders. “The deal, 11 years in the making, signified a breakthrough and allowed each country to finally explore the lucrative gas fields off their coasts.”

Hamas, like shingles and the flu, didn’t care about the money.

“I think a lot of people made assumptions about how deterred Hamas and Hezbollah are,” said Matthew Levitt, a fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. While he broadly agreed with the U.S. intelligence assessment, Levitt said that Hezbollah was now more likely to take advantage of the war in the south, which has consumed much of the Israeli military’s attention.

“I do see [Hezbollah] gradually trying to change the rules of the game,” Levitt said... “I expect that you’ll see small things happening along the [northern] border from time to time, as [Hezbollah] tries to remind that they are here.”

Hello, we’re here. Hi! Bye!

So speaks American Intelligence.

As for Israeli intelligence, Michael McCaul, chair of the US House foreign affairs committee said Israel had received an official warning from Egypt of a possible attack from Gaza three days before Hamas launched its deadly cross-border assault.

Prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu denied Israel had received any advance warning from Cairo, when reports first emerged that an alert had been passed on from the country’s intelligence services.

Netanyahu said such claims were “fake news” in an address to the Israeli people on Monday. Earlier that day his office said “no early message came from Egypt” and denied that the prime minister had recently met with the head of Egyptian intelligence to discuss any such warning.

“We’re not quite sure how we missed it. We’re not quite sure how Israel missed it,” McCaul told reporters, acknowledging that US and western intelligence had also failed to foresee an attack – as had the spooks and spies in other Western nations.

Sir Alex Younger, a former head of MI6, said Hamas was likely to have been able to achieve surprise by “the complete abandonment of any electronic device or signature”, thereby evading electronic surveillance or signals intelligence. He drew a parallel with the misjudgment in the run-up to the 9/11 attacks.

“9/11 classically was that. The assumption was not that we were vulnerable to anything in terms of this type of attack. The assumption was that it essentially wasn’t possible,” Younger said.

His Intelligence unreliable and Congress still locked in its own magic mirror of intre-Republican partisanship, President Biden is faced with the “thorny reality” that American citizens are among the hostages Hamas terrorists kidnapped and took into Gaza. (Time, Attachment Twenty One)

And American opinion, as of last week, remained divided over the “root causes” of the attack – despite polls showing an 80% majority supporting Israel. (Guardian U.K., Attachment Twenty Two)

The California-based pro-Israel group, StandWithUs, likened the Hamas assault to al-Qaida’s on the US in 2001. “For Israelis, this is like 9/11,” it said.

But the Biden administration’s position came under swift challenge, including from Yousef Munayyer, the former executive director of the US Campaign for Palestinian Rights.

“To call this ‘unprovoked’, as the initial [White House] statement did, is to ignore the daily and constant Israeli violence and war crimes against Palestinians, which has only escalated in recent years. It is language that erases Palestinians and enables continued violence against them,” he wrote.

Congresswoman Ilhan Omar, who has previously faced accusations of antisemitism over her criticism of pro-Israel lobby groups, said she condemned “the horrific acts” against Israelis, “who are being slaughtered and taken hostage by Hamas”. But, attacking President Joe from his left flank, she warned that the cycle will continue without “peace and justice” in the Middle East.

Another member of The Squad, Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-Mi), faces a censure motion for a statement she made grieving the Palestinian and Israeli lives lost – but also calling for an end to the "apartheid" in Israel. The other two members, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Shri Thanedar expressed support for the Palestinian cause (albeit with displeasure at the Hamas attacks).

Other liberal groups supported Gazans (if not necessarily Hamas) and students at Harvard issued a statement condemning Israel which drew angry responses from lesser-educated Americans. But dueling rallies in New York and other cities failed to garner significant violence.

Gotham Gov. Hochul and Kenneth Roth, the former head of the New York-based Human Rights Watch, criticised White House ambivalence, but disagreed on left-wing support for the Palestinian cause

Hochul condemned a rally in support of Palestinians set to take place Sunday in the wake of the Hamas-led attack in Israel over the weekend, calling the event “abhorrent and morally repugnant,” in a statement Saturday night. (Politico, Attachment Twenty Three)

“The people of Israel are facing violent terrorist attacks and civilian kidnappings. I condemn plans to rally in Times Square tomorrow in support of the perpetrators of these horrific actions. The planned rally is abhorrent and morally repugnant,” Hochul wrote in a post on X, formerly Twitter.

“It cheapens the concept of antisemitism – a real global curse – for defenders of the Israeli government to pretend that it is somehow antisemitic to hold Israel to the same standards of international humanitarian law as we use to assess Hamas’s conduct. A war crime is a war crime,” Roth answered.

When a team of three top Biden administration national security officials gave a private briefing to the House of Representatives on Oct. 11, they proposed working with Congress on emergency funding to tackle multiple foreign-policy crises at once: the Israel-Hamas war, the war in Ukraine, support for Taiwan, and the U.S. southern border.

“In the past, such a proposal wouldn’t elicit much controversy,” noted Foreign Policy (today, Attachment Twenty Four). “Even in the hyper-partisan House, support for Israel is virtually unanimous, while nearly all Democrats and most Republicans broadly agree on funding to back Ukraine and counter Russia and China. But when the administration officials brought up the idea of a joint supplemental funding package in the briefing, a group of Republicans responded by jeering them with a chorus of boos.”

The House has been mired in dysfunction ever since a fringe group of Republicans ousted former Speaker Kevin McCarthy from his job two weeks ago, with no succession plan in mind. Republicans are in the midst of a mini-civil war politically over how to climb out of the mess.

The political battles in Washington also constitute an existential issue for Ukraine, according to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. During a visit to Washington in September, Schumer recounted to reporters how Zelensky summed up his dilemma to U.S. lawmakers: “Mr. Zelensky said, ‘If we don’t get the aid, we will lose the war,’” Sentate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said.

House Democrats, meanwhile—stuck on the sidelines while they wait for Republicans to elect their own replacement speaker—have made their frustrations clear.

“We have a war in Europe, a war in the Middle East, challenges around the world, tensions in the Indo-Pacific, and the United States is unable to elect a speaker of the House,” Democratic Rep. Andy Kim told Foreign Policy in an interview. “What kind of signal does that send to our adversaries and our competitors?”

“In decades past, Israel was a unifying issue in Congress and among much of the electorate. Now,” contends Susan Milligan of U.S. News and World Report (October 13^th, Attachment Twenty Five) it's “another vehicle for feuding politicians and competing ideological groups to fight anew.

“With President Joe Biden facing the third major foreign policy crisis of his presidency after a disastrous Afghanistan withdrawal and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine – and the 2024 election campaign already in full swing – political foes were quick to blame him for the obviously coordinated surprise air, land and sea attack,” as tempers flared on both sides of the issue.

The Anti-Defamation League reports a "wide range of anti-Semitic and anti-Israeli conspiracy theories" online soon after the attack, with hateful comments about eradicating Jews or suggesting Israel had somehow engineered the brutality and, in Congress, Rep. Summer Lee (D-Pa) called out Speaker contender Steve Scalise, who spoke to a white supremacist group in 2002, saying "Every Republican who votes for his speakership will vote in support of rising antisemitism, white supremacy and Islamophobia."

"We have to really reflect on whether or not scoring some cheap political points by accusing Biden of being soft on … support for Israel or that somehow their effort to release five American hostages from Iran led to the Iranians somehow" enabling or funding the attack, said Brett Bruen, who was director of global engagement under President Barack Obama and who now teaches crisis communications at Georgetown University "If we do continue in this divisive debate, it's only going to benefit Russia, Iran and China."

But Sen. Tim Scott, one of the contenders for the 2024 Republican Presidential nomination, declared that "Biden's weakness invited the attack. Biden's negotiation funded the attack. … At this point, Biden is complicit," His fellow South Carolina Republican and primary foe, former U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. Nikki Haley also made a similar complaint about what she called Biden's "ransom deal" of $6B in frozen Iranian oil revenues swap for hostages.

And, almost alone among American politicians, former President Donald Trump dissed Israel, saying in a campaign speech that the country's defense minister was "a jerk." Trump also said Hezbollah, another designated terrorist group in Lebanon is "very smart," angering U.S. and Israeli officials alike.

"It's well beyond the pale for me," National Security Council spokesman John Kirby told reporters Thursday. Israeli communications minister Shlomo Karhi said it was "shameful that a man like that, a former U.S. president, abets propaganda and disseminates things that wound the spirit of Israel's fighters and its citizens."

An analysis and commentary by Anthony H. Cordesman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies (October 11^th, Attachment Twenty Eight) concluded that “(t)he outcome of the war in Gaza is already clear.”

Israel, the CSIS analyst determined, “is so strong relative to Hamas that it can both defeat Hamas and establish almost any new security structure in Gaza that Israel wants. It does face limited threat from attacks by Palestinians in Israel and in the West Bank, but they are unlikely to rise above sporadic incidents of violence. In practice, Israel will be able to create almost any security structure in Gaza that it wants to limit Palestinian action in Israel and the West Bank to demonstrations and small acts of violence or terrorism.

As for the rest of the Arab world, Israel does not seem to face any major direct military threat from its Arab neighbors. Lebanon is in chaos. Hezbollah can raise the ante in terms of missile attacks and cross-border infiltration but is vulnerable to far superior Israel air and missile attacks. Egypt is strong in military terms but is no longer organized and prepared to fight Israel and is caught up in its own economic crisis and political problems. Jordan now has only limited military forces, is not organized to fight Israel, and has its own internal economic and political challenges. Syria’s Assad regime and its military forces are still caught up in its own civil war, and an unstable Iraq lacks the capability to project meaningful forces into the Levant.

The Arab Gulf states are not a meaningful military threat. In an odd way, Iran may actually add to Israel’s regional security. Iran can threaten and provoke Israel and provide money and limited arms supplies to Palestinian fighters. It might carry out limited raids against some Israeli targets. But Iran cannot project meaningful military power other than long-range missile strikes to challenge Israel and faces the threat of far higher levels of Israel retaliation.

Predicting “four enclaves instead of two states” Cordesman lay the two state solution in its grave for at least another half century. One enclave is Greater Jerusalem, with its own ethnic tension – complicated by the multitude of holy places (targets) and maximum security.

The second is the rest of Israel, the third is the West Bank with its “hollow shell of a Palestinian government” and a dangerous influx of dangerously militant settlers, and the fourth is Gaza.

Gaza has no major industry or exports (save Hamas terrorism) the CSIS concludes, it is dependent on Israel for water, electricity and, until the past week, food. With a cratering GDP and national income, fifty percent unemployment and one of the world’s youngest population of children (birthed by angry parents to be raised up as terrorists) it is the epitome of a failed state... full of failed people whom nobody (not Egypt, not Israel, not even the Devil – be he, or she, Christian, Islamic or Jewish) want... outcasts whose only options are to nurse their grievances and grudges as they consume the fruits of the labors of their enemies, to reproduce and then to kill and to die.

The only solution, the CSIS analysis concludes, is more international aid (solidifying more generations of beggary and murder) in the name of “humanitarianism”. But, “(i)n a world where the “no-state” solution seems to be the only practical near-term outcome of the present war” for at least several years (if not generations to come) in the future, “aid at least is a potential step forward and a way of bringing a more productive pause in the fighting.”

	Our Lesson: October 9th through October 15th, 2023
Monday, October 9, 2023 Dow: 33,607.65	Columbus Day (or Native American Day) celebrated. American aircraft carrier sailing towards the cost of Gaza as Israel calls up 300,000 reservists for potential ground invasion – shelling of cities continues. Death toll rises to 900 Israelis, 11 Americans. With over 100 hostages, Hamas threatens to execute them on TV unless Israel surrenders. “We’re just seeing the beginning,” says ABC newsman Ian Pannell. Also beginning: the finger-pointing at and within American and Israeli intelligence over missing signs of the attack. American response is complicated by lack of a Speaker as Republican factions support either Jim Jordan of Ohio or Steve Scalise of Louisiana. Without a Speaker, no legislation may be introduced or passed and critics say it endangers American security. Domestically, the summer of strikes heads into fall... Kaiser healthcare workers go back to the hospital after the three day walkout, as promised, but warn of longer strikes if no settlement is reached. UAW strikes more Big Three auto plants and SAG negotiations fail, even despite WGA template. Teachers, pharmacists and hotel workers also prepare to walk out. Former President Trump says the attack would not have happened if he’d been re-elected.
Tuesday, October 10, 2023 Dow: 33,739.30	President Joe says that deployment of warships like the U.S.S. Gerald Ford is aimed at warning Iranians and Lebanese Hezbollah terrorists not to join the war. Iran celebrates the attack but denies active participation. Israel stops distribution of food, fuel and electric power to Gaza. NSC’s John Kirby says America is “big enough” to provision both Israel and Ukraine with arms and ammunition, so long as Congressional obstruction doesn’t intervene. Asked whether we will negotiate for hostages with Hamas or send in Special Forces, he ducks the question. Reporters allowed into massacre sites say that “the smell of eath is every where”... bodies of terrorists rot in the streets and survivors tell gruesome stories. In Vegas, U2 sings pro-Israeli songs With the Speakership still vacant, ousted Kevin McCarthy changes his mind, says he might have to come back. More bad news for Biden... RFK Junior quits Democratic primary and says he’ll run as Independent – the family calls him a tool of Donald Trump.
Wednesday, October 11, 2023 Dow: 33,804.87	It’s World Homeless Day. Homeless Israelis and Ukrainians not impressed and now Gaza civilians aren’t also as Israeli rockets level apartment buildings, schools, mosques and hospitals. Family members of Hamas chief Dain reported killed. Israeli ground troops wait at the border as do American warship which Biden says are there to deter Iran and Hezbollah from joining the war. “I have one word” for them, he says, “Don’t.” While escalation pauses, rhetoric increases. Belarussian President Lukashenko, like a little boy urging his older brother to get the guns and shoot rival gangsters, threatens nuclear war and Col. Steve Ganyard, the TV soldier, compares the situation to Truman’s choice in 1945... a bloody ground invasion of Japan or using the nukes. American response still constrained by Congressional gridlock on Speakership... even some Republicans are now turning on radical Matt Gaetz. “The reason he does what he does is to get on television,” one says while the real TV reporters say that “...for (his) growing wing of the GOP, style is more important than substance.” Late night comedians go political... Sean Penn (Kimmel) reminds Americans not to forget Ukraine and touts his movie “Superpower about Zelenskyy; Sen. John Fetterman (D-Pa... Colbert) says he is over his depression and contends that “America is not sending their best and brightest to Washington.”
Thursday, October 12, 2023 Dow: 33,651.84	President Joe plans a summit with Netanyahu as Hamas spokesman goes on Russian TV, boasting that they were plotting and planning for two years while the world thought they were governing Gaza. Death toll in Gaza now exceeds that of Israel, 1300 to 1200 with as many as twenty American hostages. Scalese wins vote of Republican Congressional caucus 113 to 99 and gets Jordan’s endorsement but the House is still Speakerless until a majority approves him... or anyone... the media seeming to ignore the fact that it is the Democrats who are now holding up the government by refusing to confirm. While SecState Blinken contends that Hamas terrorists are “not human”, Israel offers a deal... release the hostage and Gaza gets its water, food and power back. Rejected. (But the shelling continues and the threat of televised executions has not yet been carried out.). At home, the CPI reports inflation down slightly to 3.6% which will be the increase in Social Security payments... gas and used cars are cheaper, but rents, insurance and Halloween candy prices are up. One lucky Lotto winner in Los Angeles needn’t worry, he (or she) cashes in the $1.7B jackpot.
Friday, October 13, 2023 Dow: 33,507.50	Friday the 13^th dawns with Israel claiming it will be evicting one million Gazans from their homes “for their own protection” (i.e. all of northern Gaza will be reduced to rubble). Iran promotes a New Frontier after America re-blocks their unblocked oil money, the UN says pushing Gazans out will send the world “into the abyss” and Hamas calls for a Day of Rage (translated: street protests, even in the US and clashes between pro-Israel and pro-Palestine students) At last report, nobody killed, unlike in Paris where a schoolteacher is shot down on the street and an exiled Russian journalist is poisoned. And then there are the bedbugs. Here, the Congress remains in an abyss of its own making. Rep. Scalise drops his campaign after being rejected by the full body, so Jim Jordan (R-Oh) attempts a comeback, defeating something named Austin Scott in a new caucus vote, and he’ll try his luck tomorrow. Or Monday. Egyptian spy Bob Menendez and donor scamming George Santos continue their bipartisan disgracefulness. NASA launches a rocket on a six year mission to reach and investigate an asteroid rumored to be made entirely of metal. Slash and Ozzy smile. “Righteous, dudes!”
Saturday, October 14, 2023 Dow: (Closed)	It’s Eclipse Day. The moon blots out the sun over wide areas of the Western United States – but time and space move on and the sun returns after a few minutes. The eclipse of humanitarian instinct... indeed, humanity... will be much longer. With over three hundred thousand Israeli troops massed at the border, a million Gazans (some Hamas inclined, most not) are fleeing south for their lives, only to be stopped at the Egyptian border. More rockets roar over Gaza cities – some are explosive, others drop leaflets (written in Arabic) telling civilians to run or die. A week after the commencement of the attack, Israeli and American intelligence services are serving up excuses for their failure to anticipate (terrorists have a long tradition of attacking on significant holidays and anniversaries, so the excuses ring hollow). Further complicating the American response is the ongoing House Speakership fiasco... at least 55 Republicans say they will not support Jordan, who can only afford to lose four votes. Opposition to aid for Israel is muted... for now... but questions are being asked about whether America can support two wars, and if Hezbollah and the West Bank erupt, many more. There’s little to cheer except for the football fans rooting for their college favorites and the crossover with Swifties following Traylor (Kansas City’s 30-29 nailbiter win over the Raiders) or vying for the scarce and expensive tour tickets.
Sunday, October 15, 2023 Dow: (Closed)	Sunday draws out the tube talkers with plenty on their minds and tongues... Biden aide Jake Sullivan insists that we are doing all we can to get Americans out of Israel but waffles on rumours Iran will actually join in the fighting (as opposed to urging Hamas on from the shadows). Correspondent Ian Pannell cites Tehran’s prediction of war in Al Jazeera and former President George W. calls those who say that both sides are guilty liars. “One side is guilty, and that side is not Israel.” ABC’s knights of the roundtable agree that the coming (someday) ground invasion must spare civilians (impossible) or risk drawing Hezbollah and the West Bank into the conflict in what the talking heads call a “fluid” (i.e. bloody) situation. The numbers for the week find deaths now 2,600 and rising in Gaza, 1,300 and plateauing in Israel including 29 Americans. There are approximately 150 hostages, up to a million civilians on the run and an IPSOS poll finds over 80 percent of Americans support Israel. The Day of Rage protests are comparatively peaceful, but a Chicago-area landlord stabs his Arab tenant six times and her xix year old son 29 times. Informers inform that Gaza is running out of food, water, fuel and hope and there are so many dead that the morgues there are using ice cream wagons to hold the corpses.
With wars, old and new, raging... with the Congress gridlocked and default day looming up again, it was time for inflation to make its appearance again. The month’s figures were far less crushing as those of a year ago, but still kept the Don well down into the red.

THE DON JONES INDEX

CHART of CATEGORIES w/VALUE ADDED to EQUAL BASELINE of 15,000

(REFLECTING… approximately… DOW JONES INDEX of June 27, 2013)

See a further explanation of categories here…

ECONOMIC INDICES (60%)

CATEGORY	VALUE	BASE	RESULTS			SCORE		OUR SOURCES and COMMENTS
INCOME	(24%)	6/17/13 & 1/1/22	LAST	CHANGE	NEXT	LAST WEEK	THIS WEEK
Wages (hrly. Per cap)	9%	1350 points	10/9/23	+0.62%	10/23	1,470.14	1,470.14	https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/wages 29.20
Median Inc. (yearly)	4%	600	10/9/23	+0.033%	10/23/23	611.43	611.63	http://www.usdebtclock.org/   36,065
Unempl. (BLS – in mi)	4%	600	9/4/23	+7.89%	10/23	600.32	600.32	http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000000/  3.8 nc
Official (DC – in mi)	2%	300	10/9/23	-0.031%	10/23/23	249.17	249.25	http://www.usdebtclock.org/      6,389
Unofficl. (DC – in mi)	2%	300	10/9/23	-0.61%	10/23/23	274.08	275.76	http://www.usdebtclock.org/     11,734
Workforce Particip. Number Percent	2%	300	10/9/23	+0.03646%+0.01456%	10/23/23	302.56	302.69	In 161,844 Out 99,362 Total: 262,206 http://www.usdebtclock.org/ 61.715
WP % (ycharts)*	1%	150	9/4/23	+0.32%	10/23	151.67	151.67	https://ycharts.com/indicators/labor_force_participation_rate 62.80
OUTGO	15%
Total Inflation	7%	1050	10/9/23	+0.4%	10/23	978.02	974.11	http://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm     +0.4
Food	2%	300	10/9/23	+0.2%	10/23	276.55	276.00	http://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm     +0.2
Gasoline	2%	300	10/9/23	+2.3%	10/23	227.87	221,96	http://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm    +2.3
Medical Costs	2%	300	10/9/23	+0.3%	10/23	297.86	296.97	http://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm     +0.3
Shelter	2%	300	10/9/23	+0.6%	10/23	272.45	270.82	http://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm     +0.6
WEALTH	6%
Dow Jones Index	2%	300	10/9/23	+0.36%	10/23/23	273.95	274.93	https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/ 33.670.29
Home (Sales) (Valuation)	1% 1%	150 150	10/9/23	-0.74% +0.10%	10/23	126.44 301.39	126.44 301.39	https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics Sales (M):  4.04 Valuations (K):  407.1
Debt (Personal)	2%	300	10/9/23	+0.031%	10/23/23	275.39	275.30	http://www.usdebtclock.org/    73,542
NATIONAL	(10%)
Revenue (trilns.)	2%	300	10/9/23	-0.76%	10/23/23	359.64	356.90	debtclock.org/       4,327
Expenditures (tr.)	2%	300	10/9/23	-2.34%	10/23/23	334.67	326.82	debtclock.org/       6,271
National Debt tr.)	3%	450	10/9/23	+0.11%	10/23/23	402.13	401.69	http://www.usdebtclock.org/    33,566 (The debt ceiling... now kicked forward to 1/1/25... had been 31.4. Of late, there have been rumblings and mutterings from Congress, that it should be addressed sooner… like now?)
Aggregate Debt (tr.)	3%	450	10/9/23	+0.17%	10/23/23	386.27	385.59	http://www.usdebtclock.org/    103,487
GLOBAL	(5%)
Foreign Debt (tr.)	2%	300	10/9/23	+0.85%	10/23/23	320.87	318.16	http://www.usdebtclock.org/   7,689
Exports (in billions)	1%	150	9/23	+1.71%	10/23	159.01	159.01	https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/current/index.html 256.0
Imports (bl.)	1%	150	9/23	+0,76%	10/23	174,24	174,24	https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/current/index.html 314.3
Trade Deficit (bl.)	1%	150	9//23	+11.49%	10/23	361.74	361.74	https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/current/index.html 58.3

SOCIAL INDICES (40%)
ACTS of MAN	12%							-2433
World Affairs	3%	450	10/9/23	+0.1%	10/23/23	450.74	451.18	Aftershocks strike Afghanistan. World shrugs. Azeri-Armenia war heats up... same. Charter flights arranged for American tourists stranded in Jerusalem and the USS Gerald Ford lurking off the shores of Gaza is joined by the Eisenhower.
War and terrorism	2%	300	10/9/23	-0.2%	10/23/23	269,56	269.02	MidEast strife goes global... Pro-Arab and Jewish protesters in violent clashes in the big cities of Europe and America and even Ft. Lauderdale; police mobilize (on the beach?) to guard mosques and synagogues. Egypt refuses entry to Gaza refugees who also face Israeli bombing at the border. Hamas Day of Rage provokes global publicity (Paris, London, Australia) but little terror.
Politics	3%	450	10/9/23	-0.1%	10/23/23	480.92	480.44	Steve Scalise wins Republican caucus vote, then loses before full Congress and quits in disgust. Next fool at the plate: Jim Jordan. At it again: Rep. George Santos (R-NY) accused of stealing IDs and looting bank accouns of contributors; Sen. Menendez (D-NJ) of spying for Egypt. Both refuse to resign. RFK Jr. to run as Independent, helping Trump in 2024.
Economics	3%	450	10/9/23	+0.2%	10/23/23	429.58	430,44	WashPost lays off 243 to forestall bankruptcy and leave Capitol news to the Times and Examiner. UAW Canada settles with GM. UAW America extends walkout to Mack Trucks. SAG negotiations collapse but Hollywood raking in the bucks with concert movies (Taylor and Beyonce) while Kaiser strikers seem closer to settlement. CPI says inflation slowing, but post office will raise price on Forever stamps 2¢. Chipotle follows suit. Iran triples oil sales to arm Hamas.
Crime	1%	150	10/9/23	-0.2%	10/23/23	247.49	247.00	Indiana, Arkansas and Utah join Montana in banning TikTok as a Communist Chinese plot to destroy and distract our children. Five cops ambushed and shot in Minnesota – all survive. Violence at airports include a woman arrested for mass stabblings in Atlanta, – car thieves kill cop, shoot another at Philadelphia airport. Gunfire takes five at Texas state fair; angry parent shoots youth football coach in front of the team.
ACTS of GOD	(6%)
Environment/Weather	3%	450	10/9/23	-0.1%	10/23/23	397.80	397.40	Autumn comes in like a (cold, wet) lamb; cross country storms bring welcome rain to the West but more storms predicted for soggy Gotham subway riders.
Disasters	3%	450	10/9/23	+0.5%	10/23/23	422.98	425.09	Canadian rains, on the other hand, douse wildfires, clear America’s smoky skies as peaceful skies and moderate temperatures cover most of America.
LIFESTYLE/JUSTICE INDEX			(15%)
Science, Tech, Educ.	4%	600	10/9/23	+0.2%	10/23/23	637.95	639.23	NASA displays asteroid rocks that have carbon and water... the building blocks of life. ISS springs a leak – but it’s on the Russian side. Astronomers report that the stars are “behaving strangely.”
Equality (econ/social)	4%	600	10/9/23	nc	10/23/23	633.00	633.00	One cop convicted of murdering black pedestrian who “looked suspicious” in Colorado, the other killer acquitted.
Health	4%	600	10/9/23	-0.1%	10/23/23	472.96	472.49	Drug Wars resume: FDA takes a stand, opposing ketamine therapy while Drug Enforcement Agents order cutback in pain pill production, telling both the addicts and agonists to get used to it. Texas teacher taken in for giving melatonin to hyper kids. 500 baby bibs recalled, as is practically everything in Family Dollar stores.
Freedom and Justice	3%	450	10/9/23	+0.2%	10/23/23	468.69	469.63	Crypto creep Sam Bankman-Fried girlfriend rats him out. Killer yoga instructor tries to escape court, doesn’t. Thief who stole Judy Garland’s ruby red slippers from a museum is convicted.
MISCELLANEOUS and TRANSIENT INDEX					(7%)
Cultural incidents	3%	450	10/9/23	+0.1%	10/23/23	506.54	507.05	Rangers, Astros, Phillies and Diamondbacks survive into the MLF conference playoffs, Marathoner Kelvin Kiptum sets new record for Chicago. Writerless studios are remaking old favorites like Willy Wonka. RIP: Isley Brother Rudolph “Twist and Shout”, actresses Piper Laurie and Suzanne (“3’s Company”) Somers.
Misc. incidents	4%	450	10/9/23	+0.2%	10/23/23	486.69	487.66	Dueling Italian and Native American celebrants hold angry celebrations. Winning $1.7B Powerball ticket sold in California. Best Buy will stop selling DVD video after Christmas. Bigfoot sighted in Colorado. “Grazer” wins Fat Bear contest.

The Don Jones Index for the week of October 9th through October 15th, 2023 was DOWN 19.60 points

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ATTACHMENT ONE – From Encyclopedia Brittanica

WEST BANK

Also known as: Al-Ḍaffah al-Gharbīyah, Judaea and Samaria, ha-Gadah ha-Maʾaravit

By The Editors of Encyclopaedia Britannica Last Updated: Oct 13, 2023 

See online article here for charts, graphs and maps.

Vital Statistics...

Arabic: Al-Ḍaffah al-Gharbiyyah

Hebrew: Ha-Gadah Ha-Maʿaravit

Population:

(2022 est.) 3,923,000¹

¹Includes 305,000 Israeli Jews in the West Bank.

Official Name(S):West Bank; Al-Ḍaffah al-Gharbīyah (Arabic); Ha-gadah Ha-maʾaravit (Hebrew)

Total Area (Sq Km):

5,655

Total Area (Sq Mi):

 2,183

West Bank, Arabic Al-Ḍaffah al-Gharbiyyah, Hebrew Ha-Gadah Ha-Maʿaravit, area of the former British-mandated (1920–47) territory of Palestine west of the Jordan River, claimed from 1949 to 1988 as part of the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan but occupied from 1967 by Israel. The territory, excluding East Jerusalem, is also known within Israel by its biblical names, Judaea and Samaria.

Within its present boundaries, the West Bank represents the portion of the former mandate retained in 1948 by the Arab forces that entered Palestine after the departure of the British. The borders and status of the area were established by the Jordanian-Israeli armistice of April 3, 1949. In the decades that followed the armistice, Jordan, Israel, and the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO) each laid claim to the approximately 2,180-square-mile (5,650-square-km) area. Pop. (2017) 2,881,957.

Geography

Geographically, the West Bank is mostly composed of north-south–oriented limestone hills (conventionally called the Samarian Hills north of Jerusalem and the Judaean Hills south of Jerusalem) having an average height of 2,300 to 3,000 feet (700 to 900 metres). The hills descend eastwardly to the low-lying Great Rift Valley of the Jordan River and the Dead Sea. The West Bank does not lie entirely within the drainage system of the Jordan River, as elevated areas in the west give rise to the headwaters of streams flowing westward to the Mediterranean Sea.

Annual rainfall of more than 27 inches (685 mm) occurs in the most highly elevated areas in the northwest and declines in the southwest and southeast, along the Dead Sea, to less than 4 inches (100 mm). Widely variable land-use patterns are dictated by the availability of water. Relatively well-watered nonirrigated terrain in the hills (especially those of Samaria) is used for the grazing of sheep and the cultivation of cereals, olives, and fruits such as melons. Irrigated land in the hills and the Jordan River valley is intensively cultivated for assorted fruits and vegetables.

The industrial development of the West Bank was never strong during the Jordanian period, and by the mid-1960s there were less than a dozen industrial establishments with more than 30 employees in the area. Israeli occupation resulted in constraints on West Bank industrial development; investment capital remained scarce both in the West Bank and Gaza, and only the transportation infrastructure

 saw much improvement after 1967. This improvement occurred mostly for military reasons, although it also benefited agriculture by facilitating the supply and servicing of markets.

The principal Palestinian municipalities of the West Bank are Janīn, Nāblus, and Ramallah north of Jerusalem and Bethlehem (Bayt Laḥm) and Hebron (Al-Khalīl) south of Jerusalem. Jericho (Arīḥā) is the chief municipality of the Jordan River valley. Several small universities on the West Bank (founded or attaining university status in the 1970s) enroll mostly Palestinian students.

Many Palestinians were displaced after the 1948 and 1967 wars. About 300,000 Palestinians (most of whom were originally from territory captured by Israel in 1948) left the impoverished West Bank for Transjordan (later Jordan) during the year after the 1948 war; and about 380,000 Palestinians fled the West Bank after it was captured by the Israelis in 1967. Between 1967 and 1977 an estimated 6,300 Palestinians were evicted from East Jerusalem and replaced by Jewish immigrants, and many others lost their residency rights under the 1992–96 government of Benjamin Netanyahu.

History

Upon the departure of the British occupying forces in May 1948 and the proclamation of the State of Israel, the armies of five Arab countries entered Palestine. In the ensuing conflict—the first of the Arab-Israeli wars—Israel expanded beyond the territory contemplated by the partition plan. The West Bank, as demarcated by the Jordanian-Israeli armistice of 1949, was broadly similar to (but smaller than) one of the zones designated as an Arab state by the United Nations (UN) partition plan for Palestine in 1947 (see United Nations Resolution 181). According to that plan, Jerusalem was to have been an international zone. However, the city was instead divided into Israeli (west) and Jordanian (east) sectors. The Arab state whose creation was envisioned by the 1947 UN partition plan never came into being, and the West Bank was formally annexed by Jordan on April 24, 1950, although this annexation was recognized only by Great Britain and Pakistan.

From 1950 until it was occupied by Israel in the Six-Day War of 1967, the West Bank was governed as part of Jordan, though it was divided from the Jordanian population of the East Bank by the Jordan River. The relationship between the East and West banks was uneasy, both because of Palestinian suspicions of the Hashemite dynasty and because of the aspirations of Palestinians in the West Bank for a separate state. The web of relationships connecting the two halves of Jordan grew during this period, however, and by 1967 the West Bank represented about 47 percent of Jordan’s population and about 30 percent of its gross domestic product.

During the 1967 war, Israel occupied the West Bank and established a military administration throughout the area, except in East Jerusalem, which Israel incorporated into itself, extending Israeli citizenship, law, and civil administration to the area. During the first decade of Israeli occupation, there was comparatively little civil resistance to Israeli authorities and very little support among Palestinian residents of resistance activity.

This period of relative calm began to wane during the late 1970s and early ’80s as Israel began a more aggressive course of establishing settlements. By the early ’80s the settlements numbered in the scores. Land, businesses, and buildings were expropriated from the Palestinian inhabitants, many of whom were long absent, having fled the wars of 1948 and 1967. During the administration of Menachem Begin (1979–83), the number of Israeli settlements more than tripled, and the number of Israeli settlers increased more than fivefold. Israeli claims of a right to administer land in the West Bank not cultivated or privately owned (a category that might amount to between 30 and 70 percent of the West Bank, depending on the definitions adopted) gave rise to suspicions that Israel intended ultimately to annex the area piecemeal.

Throughout the 1970s and ’80s the issue of Israeli rule over the West Bank Palestinians remained unresolved. Israel regarded possession of the West Bank as vital to its security, and the growing number of Israeli settlements further stiffened Israeli unwillingness to relinquish control of the area. At the same time, the chief political representative of the West Bank Palestinians, the PLO, refused to negotiate with Israel and, until 1988, was unwilling to recognize Israel’s right to exist; Israel refused to negotiate with or recognize the PLO for years after that date.

In 1988 Jordan’s King Hussein renounced all administrative responsibility for the West Bank, thereby severing his country’s remaining connections with the area. Meanwhile, anti-Israeli protests broke out among the Palestinians of the West Bank in December 1987 and became virtually a permanent feature of West Bank life for the next few years, despite the Israeli army’s continued attempts to suppress the disorders.

As a result of secret negotiations begun in April 1993, Israel and the PLO reached agreement in September on a plan to gradually extend self-government to the Palestinians of the West Bank (and Gaza Strip) over a five-year period prior to a final settlement of the issue of Palestinian statehood. Under the plan, Israel’s civilian and military administration would be dissolved and the Israeli army withdrawn from populous Palestinian areas. In the West Bank the plan’s actual implementation began in May 1994 with the Israelis’ withdrawal from the town of Jericho and its environs. By 2000 the Palestinian Authority (PA) controlled less than one-fifth of the West Bank, while Israeli occupation (in some areas, combined with PA local administration) continued in the remainder.

In 2006 parliamentary elections, Fatah—an influential force in Palestinian politics since its foundation by Yasser Arafat in the 1950s—suffered a decisive loss to Hamas, reflecting years of dissatisfaction with Fatah’s governance, which was criticized as corrupt and inefficient. The victory of Hamas, a group that was regarded by many as a terrorist organization, resulted in sanctions and boycotts from Israel, the United States, and the European Union. In 2007, with violence escalating in the Gaza Strip and the failure of a coalition government, PA president Mahmoud Abbas dissolved the Hamas-led government and established in its place an emergency cabinet favouring Fatah. The increasingly violent power struggle between Hamas and Fatah resulted in a split between the West Bank, run by Fatah through the emergency PA government, and the Gaza Strip, controlled by Hamas. Israel and other members of the international community moved to aid the West Bank, offering shows of economic and diplomatic support for Abbas and Fatah while blockading the Gaza Strip.

Abbas appointed Salam Fayyad prime minister of the emergency cabinet. During his tenure the PA pursued a neoliberal state-building agenda in the West Bank to prepare it for eventual statehood. In 2011, after years of stalled peace talks, the PA began lobbying for international recognition of statehood and started gaining partial recognition in 2012. Fayyad, however, failed to garner wide support among Palestinians and resigned in 2013 as the PA was facing a financial crisis.

The 2010s were marked by continued unilateralism in the West Bank. The Fatah-dominated PA continued to work toward establishing itself as an independent government in the urban Palestinian areas of the West Bank while Israel expanded its settlement activity in the territory. By the close of the decade, many in Israel were calling for the annexation of parts of the West Bank.

A wave of attack on Israelis in early 2022 led the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) to conduct frequent raids in the West Bank, especially in the northern West Bank cities of Jenin and Nablus, in an effort to root out militants. The confrontations between Palestinians and the IDF led to the deadliest year in the territory in nearly two decades.

Until this year. - dji

ATTACHMENT TWO – From Axios

Jordan warns U.S. Israel could forcibly displace Palestinians to neighboring nations

By Barak Ravid

Jordianian King Abdullah II warned Secretary of State Tony Blinken in their meeting in Amman on Friday against any Israeli attempt to "forcibly displace Palestinians from all Palestinian Territories or cause their internal displacement," the Hashemite court said in a statement.

Why it matters: The King's harsh statement underscores Jordan's anxiety about the war in Gaza and concern that escalating tension in the occupied West Bank could lead to a flow of Palestinian refugees to Jordan.

The majority of Jordan's population is Palestinian. There have been in recent days mass protests in Jordan in favor of Hamas and the people of Gaza.

Flashback: During the 1948 war between Israel and several Arab countries, hundreds of thousands of Palestinian refugees either fled or were forcibly displaced by the Israeli military.

A second, but smaller wave, of Palestinian refugees fled the West Bank during the 1967 war between Israel and the Arab countries.

Most of the Palestinian refugees in these two waves ended up in Jordan and some still live in refugee camps there.

Driving the news: Several hours before the meeting between Blinken and King Abdullah, Israel notified the UN that the approximately 1.1 million Palestinians living north of Wadi Gaza should evacuate to the southern part of the Gaza Strip within 24 hours.

The Jordanian military on Friday placed roadblocks on the main roads leading to Israel and dispersed several hundred Jordanians who tried to reach the border.

What they're saying: "His Majesty King Abdullah II warns against any attempt to forcibly displace Palestinians from all Palestinian Territories or cause their internal displacement, calling for preventing a spillover of the crisis into neighboring countries and the exacerbation of the refugee issue", the Hashemite court said in the statement.

The State Department said Blinken discussed with the king the efforts to secure the release of hostages and prevent the conflict from widening. They also discussed ways to address the humanitarian needs of civilians in Gaza "while Israel conducts legitimate security operations to defend itself from terrorism,"

State of play: Later on Friday, Blinken met in Amman with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas who also warned against the forced displacement of Palestinians from Gaza.

"This will be a second Nakba," Abbas said in a statement, referring to the "catastrophe," which marks the displacement of hundreds of thousands of Palestinians during the events that led to Israel's founding in 1948.

Abbas said in a statement he warned Blinken of a humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza due to the halting of most civilian services including electricity.

The State Department said Blinken extended his condolences to the families of Palestinian civilian victims of this conflict and reiterated that "Hamas does not stand for the Palestinian people's legitimate right to dignity, freedom, justice, and self-determination."

Blinken thanked Abbas and his team for their work to further calm the situation in the West Bank while the fighting in Gaza is ongoing, the State Department said.

Between the lines: The Biden administration pressed Abbas in recent days to condemn Hamas' killing of Israeli civilians, which he hasn't done so far.

In the meeting, Abbas told Blinken he is against "the killing of civilians from both sides" and called for the release of Israeli civilians who are held hostage in Gaza and Palestinian prisoners in Israeli jails.

Jordianian King Abdullah II warned Secretary of State Tony Blinken in their meeting in Amman on Friday against any Israeli attempt to "forcibly displace Palestinians from all Palestinian Territories or cause their internal displacement," the Hashemite court said in a statement.

The King's harsh statement underscores Jordan's anxiety about the war in Gaza and concern that escalating tension in the occupied West Bank could lead to a flow of Palestinian refugees to Jordan.

Abbas said in a statement he warned Blinken of a humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza due to the halting of most civilian services including electricity.

The State Department said Blinken extended his condolences to the families of Palestinian civilian victims of this conflict and reiterated that "Hamas does not stand for the Palestinian people's legitimate right to dignity, freedom, justice, and self-determination."

Blinken thanked Abbas and his team for their work to further calm the situation in the West Bank while the fighting in Gaza is ongoing, the State Department said.

Between the lines: The Biden administration pressed Abbas in recent days to condemn Hamas' killing of Israeli civilians, which he hasn't done so far.

In the meeting, Abbas told Blinken he is against "the killing of civilians from both sides" and called for the release of Israeli civilians who are held hostage in Gaza and Palestinian prisoners in Israeli jails.

ATTACHMENT THREE – From WashPost

The Gaza Strip and its history, explained

By Timothy Bella Updated October 10, 2023 at 8:24 a.m. EDT|Published October 9, 2023 at 1:42 p.m. EDT

See site here for charts, graphs and maps.

Israel is at war with the Palestinian militant group Hamas, and hundreds of civilians have been killed in the days since the group’s surprise attack on Saturday signaled a major escalation of the conflict between the two sides and engulfed the region in chaos.

As images and videos of the devastation come out of Israel, many people are also watching the violence unfolding in the Gaza Strip, one of the world’s most densely populated and impoverished territories. Israel ordered a siege of the Gaza Strip on Monday, with Defense Minister Yoav Gallant saying there would be “no electricity, no food, no fuel” for the more than 2 million Palestinians living there.

Live updates on the Israel-Hamas war

Here’s what to know about the Gaza Strip and its history up to the current war between Israel and Hamas:

WHAT TO KNOW

• What is the Gaza Strip?

• Who governs the Gaza Strip? When did Hamas take control?

• What does a siege of the Gaza Strip mean?

• How many people live on the Gaza Strip? Who lives there?

• What makes the Gaza Strip vulnerable?

What is the Gaza Strip?

The Gaza Strip is a small area bordering Israel and Egypt on the Mediterranean Sea. It is one of two Palestinian territories. The other is the Israeli-occupied West Bank, which includes East Jerusalem and borders Jordan and the Dead Sea.

Gaza was part of the Ottoman Empire before being occupied by Britain from 1918 to 1948 and Egypt from 1948 to 1967. Nearly 20 years after Israel declared its statehood in 1948, the country captured the Gaza Strip from Egypt and the West Bank from Jordan in the 1967 war. Palestinians claim these territories and see them as part of a future state.

The Israeli-Palestinian conflict: A chronology

Israel controlled Gaza for 38 years, building 21 Jewish settlements in that period. Tension and violence persisted for years, including the first intifada, a stretch of nearly four years of protests, riots and bombings in the Palestinian territories and Israel over Israeli occupation of the Gaza Strip and West Bank. The bloodshed led Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin to say in 1992, “I would like Gaza to sink into the sea, but that won’t happen, and a solution must be found.”

In 1993, the agreements known as the Oslo accords between Israel and the Palestine Liberation Organization aimed at fulfilling the “right of the Palestinian people to self-determination.” In 1994, Palestinians took control as the governmental authority of Gaza. Part of the larger push for peace involved Israel following through on a unilateral disengagement plan proposed by Prime Minister Ariel Sharon in 2003 that would dismantle the Israeli settlements in the Gaza Strip.

In 2005, Israel gave up control of the Gaza Strip under domestic and international pressure, withdrawing 9,000 Israeli settlers and military forces from Gaza.

Who governs the Gaza Strip? When did Hamas take control?

Hamas, one of the two major political parties in the Palestinian territories, clashed with Palestinian leaders as the Oslo accords were being brokered in the ’90s. Hamas came to power in Gaza after winning a 2006 election. No elections have been held since then.

What is Hamas, and why did it attack Israel now?

Even though Israel gave up control of the Gaza Strip, it has kept a land, air and sea blockade on Gaza since 2007. The result has been damaging for Palestinians, with the United Nations saying in 2009 that the blockade from both Israel and Egypt had been “devastating livelihoods” and causing gradual “de-development” in Gaza. Israel has argued that the blockade has served to keep control of Gaza’s border, prevent Hamas from getting stronger and protect Israelis from Palestinian rocket attacks.

The blockade has faced criticism by human rights groups and the United Nations, which consider Gaza to still be under Israeli military occupation. The United Nations estimates that the blockade has cost the Palestinian territory’s economy nearly $17 billion over roughly a decade. The International Committee of the Red Cross has gone one step further in recent years to say the blockade violates the Geneva Conventions — a claim that Israeli officials have rejected.

What does a siege of the Gaza Strip mean?

Gallant, Israel’s defense minister, told the Southern Command on Monday that there would be a “full siege” of the Gaza Strip in the early stages of the war — cutting off all electricity, food and fuel.

The densely populated Gaza Strip relies heavily on Israel for water, electricity and food — giving the more severe blockade a far-reaching impact. The primary imports for Gaza are food, consumer goods and construction materials from Israel and Egypt, its two main trade partners. Most of Gaza’s fresh fruit and vegetables come from the farms along its border with Israel. Gaza also gets most of its electricity from Israel, though the strip does have one old power plant. The enclave has groundwater sources, but many wells have been ruined by pollution and saltwater. More than 90 percent of the water in Gaza’s sole aquifer is no longer potable.

U.N. Secretary General António Guterres said Monday that he was “deeply distressed” at Israel’s plan to “initiate a complete siege of the Gaza Strip.” Palestinian civilians are “trapped and helpless,” Guterres told reporters in New York, calling on Israel to allow continued access for relief officials and humanitarian supplies.

How many people live on the Gaza Strip? Who lives there?

More than 2 million people live in Gaza, making it “one of the world’s most densely populated territories,” according to Gisha, an Israeli nongovernmental organization.

At roughly 140 square miles, the Gaza Strip is just over twice the size of Washington, D.C., but has triple the population. Gaza is smaller than the West Bank, which is more than 2,200 square miles.

The population in Gaza is extraordinarily young. UNICEF has estimated that there are roughly 1 million children living in the Gaza Strip, meaning that almost half the people in Gaza are children. Almost 40 percent of the population is under the age of 15, according to the CIA.

More than 1.4 million of the residents of the Gaza Strip are Palestinian refugees, according to the United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA).

From 2021: How conflict, blockades and history have shaped the geography of Gaza

The territory has one of the highest unemployment rates in the world, World Bank statistics show, and the United Nations estimates that roughly 80 percent of the population relies on international aid to survive and access basic services.

“For at least the last decade and a half, the socioeconomic situation in Gaza has been in steady decline,” the UNRWA website says. “There are now very few options left for the people of Gaza, who have been living under collective punishment as a result of the blockade that continues to have a devastating effect as people’s movement to and from the Gaza Strip, as well as access to markets, remains severely restricted.”

What makes the Gaza Strip vulnerable?

Since Gaza City is more densely populated than Tel Aviv and other major cities around the world such as London and Shanghai, targeted counterstrikes like the ones Israel has launched in recent days have a high likelihood of hitting civilians. Previous conflicts have killed hundreds of children. After more than hundreds of Israelis were killed in Hamas’s surprise attacks over the weekend, according to Israeli media, a swelling counterattack by Israeli forces in Gaza has also caused heavy civilian casualties, according to the local Health Ministry, including at least scores of children.

Living conditions in Gaza are bleak: 95 percent of the population does not have access to clean water, according to UNRWA, and electricity shortages periodically bring life to a halt.

On Monday, Guterres said about 137,000 displaced people were sheltering in schools and facilities operated by UNRWA, the U.N. relief agency for Palestinians.

Leo Sands, Ruby Mellen, Laris Karklis, Júlia Ledur, Steve Hendrix, Shira Rubin, Susannah George, Hazem Balousha and William Booth contributed to this report.

ATTACHMENT FOUR – From Al Jazeera

Israel’s Gaza invasion could test its occupation of the West Bank

Israel will struggle to man its ever-increasing checkpoints in the West Bank and flood the Gaza Strip with soldiers.

By Zoran Kusovac Published On 13 Oct 202313 Oct 2023

Israel maintains a hefty security presence in the occupied West Bank with a network of permanent and temporary checkpoints set up by the army and paramilitary border police.

Military authorities do not reveal the number of checkpoints or their locations, and new, ad hoc posts often pop up overnight with no advance notice.

Those checkpoints and the personnel needed to man them are reminders of how Israel’s military is spread out to maintain its occupation. There are also warning signs of the challenge Israel might face in supporting a likely increase in demand for these barriers from Israeli settlers while also needing its troops for an expected invasion of the Gaza Strip.

International agencies try to keep track of the checkpoints, which are a major obstacle to normal and dignified life in the Palestinian territory.

The United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) counted 645 obstacles before the latest violence. Human Rights Watch counted 1,500 temporary checkpoints that came and went in 2019 and 2020.

The human rights group also warned that, even in a period of relative calm: “Israeli forces routinely turn away or delay and humiliate Palestinians at checkpoints without explanation, while permitting largely unfettered movement to Israeli settlers.”

Most of the checkpoints are along the separation barrier – a wall that in places rises three storeys high, topped with razor wire and dotted with observation towers and all sorts of surveillance and security equipment.

It snakes through Palestinian lands for more than 700km (435 miles), preventing access to Israel from the occupied West Bank.

Any additional barriers will make daily life and movement more difficult, complicated and miserable for most of the three million inhabitants of the West Bank.

Hit and burn

Many observers believe the Hamas attacks on southern Israel on Saturday were triggered by unchecked violence instigated and perpetrated by Israeli settlers in the occupied West Bank. There have been numerous cases of hit and burn attacks against Palestinians and their properties near new illegal settlements without any attempt by the Israeli army to prevent the settler rampages.

It is unclear whether the government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has turned a blind eye to the rise of settler aggression or tacitly encouraged it.

Most Palestinian residents report two faces of violence: institutionalised but contained harassment by the military and unconcealed hatred and belligerence by settlers who, unlike other citizens of Israel, can legally and openly carry automatic weapons.

Israeli authorities know that potential Palestinian attacks in the occupied territory could target settlers in isolated settlements. In quiet times, many settlements do not have army units but rely on minor garrisons that are responsible for an area with several settlements.

Protecting settlers

Bloody scenes of Israeli villages being overrun by Hamas gunmen and people mowed down by machine guns in their homes or captured have created a new reality on the ground. Settlers now insist on direct and close protection, and the authorities cannot deny it.

Control posts are manpower-intensive. From my own experience during the second Intifada from 2000 to 2005, the Israeli army puts a squad of at least 10 to 20 soldiers on even the smallest “flying checkpoint”.

In addition to troopers checking passengers and vehicles, a flying checkpoint needs more soldiers to observe incoming and outgoing traffic and provide wider reconnaissance of the surroundings. For an armed response, at least two teams manning vehicle-based weapons for perimeter security and a quick reaction infantry team are needed.

Two shifts can man such a checkpoint around the clock when needed, but after a week or two of long hours, fatigue sets in, causing complacency and loss of vigilance. Every sensible commander will demand a third shift as soon as enough reserves are available.

Thus, to maintain the simplest checkpoint, Israel needs at least 50 men and women. Bigger ones, like crossings in the separation wall, need hundreds. It can be assumed that during this conflict, the Israeli army will eventually deploy up to 50,000 soldiers, a third of its peacetime strength, just to man roadblocks and control stations, some of which will be erected inside Israel too.

Security and political aspects of the settlements also cause a major drain on human resources. The occupied West Bank has about 150 illegal settlement and about 100 outposts not recognised by the Israeli government.

It is hard to imagine that, facing the fury of settlers, the government would settle for anything short of putting at least a platoon of 20 to 40 soldiers in the small settlements and at least a company of 200 soldiers for the bigger or more difficult to defend settlements.

Adding up settlement by settlement, the manpower estimate gets to 30,000 to 50,000 just for that.

Assuming that the Israeli land attack on Gaza is most likely to be launched at the beginning of a weekend, for reasons that are political rather than purely military, the big question is: Can Israel finalise the deployment of all its forces, a prerequisite for action, by the end of Friday?

Risking my reputation, I guess probably not.

ATTACHMENT FIVE – From WashPost

What is Hamas, and why did it attack Israel now?

By Niha Masih Updated October 11, 2023 at 2:31 a.m. EDT|Published October 9, 2023 at 7:44 a.m. EDT

CORRECTION

An earlier version of this article incorrectly described Hamas’s aim as the creation of a Palestinian state along the borders that existed before the 1967 war. Hamas does not recognize the existence of Israel and is committed to replacing it through armed struggle with a Palestinian state stretching from the Mediterranean Sea to the Jordan River. In addition, an earlier version of this article inaccurately characterized Qatar's relationship with Hamas. Qatar works with Hamas to provide humanitarian assistance to civilians in the Gaza Strip, but it does not directly support the group. The article has been corrected.

Israel declared war against Hamas on Sunday, following a surprise attack by the Palestinian militant group based in Gaza that included the taking of civilian hostages at a music festival, where at least 260 bodies have been recovered. Israeli security forces, caught off guard, have pounded the Gaza Strip with retaliatory strikes, and U.S. officials said they expect Israel to soon launch a ground incursion into the enclave as violence escalates in the conflict-ridden region.

Israel is searching for more than 100 hostages, including Americans, believed to have been taken to Gaza by Hamas. President Biden labeled the actions of Hamas as “sheer evil” in a speech Tuesday.

Since winning legislative elections in 2006, Hamas has repeatedly attacked Israel with rockets and mortars, emerging as a defiant adversary. Israel has retaliated with its superior firepower and a punishing blockade, restricting imports and the movement of civilians in a strategy of collective punishment. The blockade and recurring Israeli strikes have contributed to Gaza’s poor infrastructure and living conditions. Israel declared a full siege of the enclave on Monday, with Defense Minister Yoav Gallant promising “no electricity, no food, no fuel” and calling Hamas militants “savages.”

The Gaza Strip and its history, explained

Here’s what to know about Hamas and the latest violence.

WHAT TO KNOW

• What is Hamas?

• Who is Hamas’s leader?

• Why did Hamas attack Israel now?

What is Hamas?

Hamas, or the Islamic Resistance Movement, is a militant group that governs the Gaza Strip, a 25-mile-long, densely populated enclave of more than 2.1 million people. Hamas emerged in 1987 as an offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood during the first Palestinian intifada, or uprising, against the Israeli occupation of Gaza and the West Bank. It was founded by Sheikh Ahmed Yassin, a Palestinian cleric. Its military wing, the Izzedine al-Qassam Brigades, was established around 1991.

Unlike the Palestinian Authority, Hamas does not recognize the existence of Israel and is committed to replacing it through armed struggle with a Palestinian state stretching from the Mediterranean Sea to the Jordan River.

The Israeli-Palestinian conflict: A chronology

In October 1997, the United States designated Hamas a terrorist organization. The group, supported by Iran, has used explosives and rockets, along with suicide bombings and kidnappings, to target Israel.

Hamas won elections in Gaza in 2006, defeating Fatah, the main Palestinian party that still controls the West Bank.

Israel has targeted Hamas leaders over the years. In 1997, Khaled Meshal, a top official, survived an assassination attempt by the Mossad, Israel’s national intelligence agency, which poisoned him in Amman, Jordan. Meshal was saved after Jordan detained the Israeli agents and President Bill Clinton pressed Israel to hand over the antidote.

Israel assassinated Yassin and another founding member, Abdel Aziz Rantisi, in 2004 and killed Hamas military chief Ahmed Jabari in November 2012.

Who is Hamas’s leader?

Within Gaza, Hamas is currently led by the elusive Yahya Sinwar. Sinwar, who founded the forerunner of the Izzedine al-Qassam Brigades, was previously imprisoned in Israel on terrorism-related charges but was released in 2011 as part of a prisoner swap for kidnapped Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit, according to the State Department.

Ismail Haniyeh, considered Hamas’s top political leader, is reported to live in Qatar. Along with Mohammed Deif, the head of Hamas’s military wing, he has taken control of most public messaging from the group over recent years.

Why did Hamas attack Israel now?

The coordinated attack by Hamas caught Israel by surprise but comes after months of worsening tensions over violence at al-Aqsa Mosque — a sacred Muslim site in the heart of Jerusalem located on the same spot as the Temple Mount revered by Jews — as well as continuing resentment of the punishing blockade and occupation of Palestinian lands. The presence of once-fringe Jewish supremacists and settler leaders in Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s hard-right government has further inflamed tensions with the Palestinians and caused domestic strife inside Israel that has led to a perception of weakness.

Palestinian anger also reached a boiling point in May 2021 over the proposed evictions of families from a Palestinian neighborhood in East Jerusalem, leading to clashes between protesters and Israeli forces that prompted Hamas to launch rockets at Israeli cities.

In the months leading up to Saturday’s surprise attack, clashes had increased between Israeli forces and Palestinians, particularly in the West Bank. Between January and September, 227 Palestinians were killed by Israeli forces or settlers — more than the number in all of 2022, according to the United Nations. Israeli fatalities, before the latest violence, totaled at least 29.

During the Muslim holy month of Ramadan, in April, Israeli forces stormed al-Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem and used force on worshipers, including women and the elderly, and Israeli police last week guarded a group of settlers marching through the area. Both Muslims and Jews, who call the mosque the Temple Mount, consider the site among the holiest in their respective faiths.

What to know about the hostages taken from Israel in Hamas attack

A five-day conflict broke out in May between Israel and Islamic Jihad, another armed Palestinian faction, killing at least 33 in Gaza and two in Israel.

Over the summer, clashes broke out between Palestinian militants in the West Bank and Israeli forces or Jewish settlers. In June, four Israelis were killed when two Hamas gunmen opened fire at a hummus restaurant outside an Israeli settlement.

Days later, Israel carried out its most expansive military operation in two decades in the West Bank when it stormed the city of Jenin with about 1,000 soldiers backed by drone strikes. Calling it a “counterterrorism” effort, Israel focused the operation on the impoverished Jenin refugee camp, known to be a hub of armed factions, many with links to Hamas and Islamic Jihad.

Tensions in Gaza nearly spilled over in September after Israeli agents found explosives in a shipment of jeans and ended all exports from the enclave. In response, Hamas held field exercises, including practice rocket launches, and allowed Palestinians to protest at the border fence separating Israel and Gaza.

ATTACHMENT SIX – From GUK

What is Hamas, the militant group that rules Gaza?

Administrator of Gaza’s health service and movement committed to the murder of Israelis – Hamas is many things

By Peter Beaumont Thu 12 Oct 2023 00.00 EDT

The massacre of more than 1,200 Israeli citizens – the vast majority of them civilians – has focused global attention on the question of what Hamas is and what it represents.

An acronym for the Islamic Resistance Movement, Hamas was founded as an offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood in 1987 on three pillars: religion, charity and the fight against Israel – although arguably its earliest enemy was Fatah, Yasser Arafat’s rival Palestinian faction.

Under one of its key founders, the group’s spiritual leader, Sheikh Ahmed Yassin, it held an uncompromising view.

As the movement’s founding charter made clear, Hamas was dedicated from the start to extinguishing the existence of the state of Israel. It saw armed violence as part of that struggle, modelling its early armed wing on the fedayeen, Palestinian armed groups that emerged in the 1950s after the establishment of the state of Israel.

That armed wing would come to be known as the Izz ad-Din al Qassam brigades [al-Qassam brigades] who from their very beginning embraced the use of terror tactics against Israel, carrying out their first suicide bombing in 1993 in conjunction with Islamic Jihad.

But the movement attracts substantial popular support, and also incorporates teachers, surgeons, urban planners and police in its civil administration of Gaza.

The reality is Hamas is many things. While it runs Gaza’s health service, it is also a sinister organisation committed to the mass murder of Israelis. It administers the education service while its police have broken the bones of children caught wearing scarfs signalling family affiliation with the rival Fatah movement.

It runs the courts while, during the 2014 Gaza war, its forces abducted, tortured and murdered Palestinians accused of “collaborating” with Israel and others. It is unavoidably part of the fabric of the life in Gaza.

The armed wing

For most people Hamas is represented by its armed wing, responsible for the brutal massacre at the weekend.

After the 1993 Oslo peace accords, Hamas (along with Palestinian Islamic Jihad) deployed suicide bombings as its initial weapon of choice against the peace deal, a tactic that would be seen regularly during the second intifada.

Meanwhile, the Qassam brigades grew stronger, particularly in Gaza – becoming the substantial, well-armed and well-trained paramilitary force of today.

While Hamas’s first militants operated in a cell structure, they became more organised in Gaza around 20 years ago, when Hamas first fought a series of chaotic battles with the Israel Defence Forces that saw it take heavy losses, prior to the evacuation of the Israeli settlements in Gaza in 2005.

While the exact numbers are unclear and disputed, the Qassam brigades are today believed to count on several tens of thousands under arms including small boat forces, combat divers, a new paraglider force and drone operators.

Hamas in power in Gaza

The turning point for Hamas came in 2007. After a period of deadly anarchy in Gaza, after the 2006 Palestinian elections in which Hamas-backed candidates won the largest share of the vote, it seized power in the coastal enclave by force.

In power, Hamas, which had built its appeal on lacking the corruption of its rival Fatah, proved to be brutal and often greedy. Senior figures were implicated in damaging pyramid schemes linked to the once-flourishing smuggling tunnels to Egypt.

Big villas appeared in its southern strongholds. Analysts would speak of a “black budget” which funnelled money to the military wing and powerful individuals.

The messaging from senior figures in the political bureau in this period was contradictory. As Yassin and his fellow founder Abdel Aziz al-Rantissi had done before their assassinations by Israel in 2004, Hamas leaders would suggest the possibility of a long cessation of hostilities with Israel – known as a hudna.

That would suggest they could be pragmatic. Whether it was real – a function of their brief experiment in democratic participation – the mask could also slip. The threat of violence against Israel, and Jews more widely, was never far from the surface.

What would forge Hamas into its current shape was the blockade imposed by Israel in 2007 and the subsequent Gaza wars that would repeat themselves in a vicious cycle.

Largely shut off from the world, the Qassam brigades – which gained experience and adapted new technology and tactics learned from fighting with Israel – grew both in size and importance.

Violence became self-fulfilling. War with Israel legitimised Hamas’s role in Palestinian society and the wider Middle East.

After the 2008 Gaza conflict, support for Hamas rose sharply among the wider Palestinian society in comparison with non-conflict periods – not least in Gaza, where the shortcomings of its rule are more exposed.

Hamas has at times shown itself susceptible to outside pressure: as recently as 2017, the group updated its founding charter to finesse its traditional calls for the destruction of Israel – reportedly under pressure from Egypt, the traditional interlocutor between Hamas and Israel in times of war.

This year a Hamas delegation visited Moscow and Saudi Arabia (for the first time in seven years) as it sought a wider international hearing.

Hamas has never balked at using terrorism – indeed it has celebrated it again and again – but last weekend’s murderous rampage denotes something else.

In a hardline organisation, the most hardline of the hardliners appear to be in the driving seat, representing the growing influence in recent years of the military wing’s shadowy head Mohammed Deif – Israel’s number one target – and the apparent decision by the current head of Hamas in Gaza, Yahya Sinwar, to align himself with a policy of all-out war after being the driving force behind Hamas’s effort to improve its external relations.

Peter Beaumont was the Guardian’s Jerusalem correspondent between 2014 and 2018. Over a period of two decades, he has interviewed a number of senior Hamas leaders, including founders Sheikh Ahmed Yassin and Abdel Aziz Rantissi.

ATTACHMENT SEVEN – From Al Jazeera

Several Palestinians killed by Israeli forces in occupied West Bank

Tensions in the occupied West Bank continue to build, with Israeli settlers carrying out a spate of shootings.

Published On 13 Oct 202313 Oct 2023

At least 11 Palestinians have been killed by Israeli forces in the occupied West Bank, according to the Palestinian health ministry, amid protests against the continuing Israeli bombardment of the besieged Gaza Strip.

Protests took place in cities across the Israeli-occupied territory on Friday, including Ramallah, Tulkarem, Nablus and Hebron, hours after Israel ordered residents in northern Gaza to evacuate their homes ahead of an expected ground invasion.

The AFP news agency reported that at least three people were killed in the town of Tulkarem, and a 14-year-old boy was killed in Beit Furik, near Nablus. The news outlet dpa reported that Israeli settlers, alongside soldiers, took part in some confrontations with Palestinian protesters.

At least 46 Palestinians have been killed in the occupied West Bank since Saturday, according to the health ministry.

The killings come amid rising tensions in the occupied West Bank, as Israel carries out a crushing campaign of air strikes on Gaza ahead of an expected ground assault against the Palestinian group Hamas, which governs Gaza. Hamas fighters carried out a lightning attack in southern Israel on Saturday that killed at least 1,300 people.

In neighbouring Jordan, riot police dispersed a pro-Palestinian rally as it tried to march towards the border with the occupied West Bank, which Israeli authorities have placed under total lockdown.

Jordan and Egypt have expressed concern that further escalation could have a destabilising effect within their own countries and across the region.

Cairo on Friday rejected Israel’s demand for more than one million residents of northern Gaza to move south, amid fears of a massive influx of refugees across the heavily fortified border into its territory.

Egypt’s Foreign Ministry said the move “constitutes a grave violation of the rules of international humanitarian law, and will expose the lives of more than a million Palestinian citizens and their families to the dangers of remaining in the open without shelter.”

In the statement, Egypt called on the United Nations Security Council, which is scheduled to meet Friday, to stop the evacuation

The United Nations has said that such a large-scale evacuation, carried out under constant Israeli bombing, is “impossible”, would have “devastating humanitarian consequences” and has called on the order to be rescinded.

The Norwegian Refugee Council, a rights group, warned that the demand, “absent of any guarantees of safety or return, would amount to the war crime of forcible transfer”.

In the occupied West Bank, settler violence has also intensified since Saturday.

Israel’s far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir announced earlier this week that his ministry was purchasing 10,000 assault rifles for distribution to Israelis, including those living in illegal settlements in the occupied West Bank.

Footage from the Israeli human rights group B’Tselem appears to show an incident in which an Israeli settler shoots a Palestinian man near at-Tuwani close to south Hebron at point blank, as an Israeli soldier stands nearby.

On Thursday, a Palestinian man and his son were shot and killed when settlers opened fire on a funeral taking place for several Palestinians killed in a separate settler attack the previous day.

ATTACHMENT EIGHT – From Independent UK

Palestinians fear ‘new wave of killing’ in the West Bank as Israel puts it on lockdown

By Alexander Butler and Maira Butt Thu, October 12, 2023 at 10:40 AM EDT·

Palestinians fear a “new wave of killing” in the West Bank after the territory was sealed off by Israel in response to Hamas’s deadly attacks.

The death toll on both sides has continued to rise, with the Gaza Health Ministry reporting on Thursday that more than 1,400 Palestinians had been killed in Israeli air strikes after the weekend assault left around 1,200 Israelis dead.

At least 27 Palestinians have been killed during clashes in the West Bank since Saturday. On Wednesday, three were shot dead by Israeli security forces and masked Jewish settlers in Qusra village near the northern West Bank city of Nablus, the Palestinian Foreign Ministry said, after the Israeli army said it was supplying licensed citizens with thousands of firearms “to bolster defence systems” across the country.

People living in the West Bank told The Independent of their concerns as the crisis continues to escalate. Saed, 26, a resident of Aida refugee camp in the West Bank, feared what would come next.

“Hamas’s attacks were really shocking and surprised all of us,” he said. “We will face more difficult days in Aida. Israel will hit with force and start a new wave of killing.”

There is considerable tension in the region as Israeli citizens and Palestinians clash. Earlier this year it was reported there were now more than half a million Israeli settlers living in the West Bank. The West Bank and east Jerusalem are together home to some 3 million Palestinians.

Mojahed Tbanjeh, a journalist in Nablus, also told The Independent: “The situation here is very bad. Israeli settlers have started attacking the villages.

“Yesterday four Palestinians were killed by Israeli citizens and today another two were killed in Qusra at a funeral, a father and son.

“An hour ago a doctor from the village of Jit near Nablus was abducted. All the checkpoints are closed. Every day in West Bank cities there are confrontations and marches at checkpoints.”

Raya Osama, 30, is a pregnant mother-of-one who is contemplating leaving the area for the first time.

“We’re more afraid of the settlers than the army,” she said. “The settlements are placed between Palestinian villages and they are made up of very far-right Israeli citizens who hate Palestinians and want to punish them for Hamas.”

Ms Osama says she feels her community is “in danger” and wants to leave with her 11-month-old son and her family.

The blockade has closed entrances and exits into Palestinian towns and cities, which Saed said is causing residents to run out of food and fuel supplies.

In one image, a road into Bethlehem can be seen blocked by a pile of rocks and concrete barriers with a bulldozer parked behind. And another image taken in Bayt Ta’mar, a village near Bethlehem, shows rubble and concrete boulders blocking a different road.

Aida was established in 1950 by the United Nations as a refugee camp for Palestinians who fled what is now Israel in the 1948 Israeli-Arab war.

Refugees have remained there ever since, with generations growing up in the camp which now resembles a town and is located next to Israel’s heavily fortified separation barrier. The camp is about 0.7km squared and is home to 6,000 refugees. Ten per cent are Christian, and the rest are Muslim.

Allegra Pacheco, chief of party for the West Bank Protection Consortium, said: “The situation is getting increasingly tense by the minute. There is incitement among some armed settlers to repeat what is happening in Gaza in the West Bank. There have been deaths both yesterday and today because of this.

“Any country that is concerned about destabilisation needs to know that the situation in Gaza is destabilising, but the West Bank could become another front in a minute. It could be another tipping point.”

ATTACHMENT NINE – From Time

How the Yom Kippur War Changed Israel

BY OLIVIA B. WAXMAN OCTOBER 11, 2023 5:08 PM EDT

After attacks by the terrorist group Hamas that started Oct. 7 drew Israel to war in the Gaza strip, Meron Medzini, 91, is feeling a sense of deja vu in Jerusalem. The current war started one day after the 50th anniversary of the start of the Yom Kippur war, and Medzini has been having flashbacks.

As press secretary to the Prime Minister Golda Meir during the war that Israel fought against Egypt and Syria in 1973, Medzini attended war cabinet meetings in Tel Aviv, which he says Meir conducted with two packs of Chesterfield cigarettes and innumerable cups of coffee. Medzini traveled with foreign correspondents to the frontlines, and to this day, he says he can still see the dead bodies and burning tanks vividly.

Medzini says one difference between then and now is a sense of “rage” that Israelis feel at how high the casualty count is already and the widespread social media coverage of civilian hostages and the deaths of women and babies. So far, there have been more than 1,200 Israeli casualties in about four days—a number that could surpass the 2,600 casualties in the Yom Kippur war, which lasted 19 days. Fifty years ago, Medzini says, “We were more angry at the fact that we were caught unprepared. This time we feel that there's a totally different enemy.”

TIME talked to experts on the history of the Yom Kippur war, the lessons that came out of it, and how it reshaped Israel and the region. Abraham Rabinovich, author of The Yom Kippur War: The Epic Encounter That Transformed the Middle East, describes the Yom Kippur War as both “the greatest military victory Israel has ever had” and “the most traumatic event in Israel's history.”

Read More: Why Hamas Tried to Sabotage Arab-Israeli Peace Prospects With a Massive Unprovoked Attack

One similarity between the 1973 war and the 2023 war is the idea that Israel was caught off guard. The 2023 war started on a Saturday, when many Israelis stay home to observe the Sabbath, while the 1973 war started on Yom Kippur, a holy day when many Israeli businesses are closed so they can go to synagogue and fast. As TIME described the outbreak of the Yom Kippur war in the Oct. 15, 1973, issue of the magazine:

The fighting erupted when Egyptian troops surged across the Suez Canal and Syrian soldiers struck in the north on the Golan Heights. Both forces swept through Israel's front lines and punched their way into Israeli-held territory under the glare of an afternoon sun. Backed by heavy artillery and strafing jets, they maneuvered with tanks and armored vehicles. Helicopters carried some Arab troops into battle. United Nations observers reported seeing Egyptians crossing into the Sinai Desert at five points along the 103-mile canal front; Syrian troops were spotted moving into Israel over the central section of the Golan Heights cease-fire line by other U.N. teams. The Syrians were soon stopped, but the Egyptians claimed that within hours they occupied nearly all of the east bank of the canal—a claim quickly denied by the Israelis. Though both Egypt and Syria insisted that invading Israeli troops had started the war, the evidence clearly indicated that the fourth Arab-Israeli war in 25 years had been launched by a massive Arab invasion. Within 24 hours, Israeli troops had stemmed the Arab thrust and were delivering a brutal counterattack.

News of the invasion sent Israeli civilians cleaning out their bomb shelters, filling their bathtubs with water and taping their windows for blackouts.

At several synagogues, services were interrupted as the sextons stood up and called out the names of young men who were being summoned to duty; other worshipers, on hearing the news, quickly folded their prayer shawls and departed; some returned later, in uniform, to bid their families goodbye. That day, Israeli warplanes buzzed Israel's principal cities, perhaps as a signal for air force call-ups; but it was a curious occurrence, because planes had never flown over Israel during Yom Kippur before.

Israel would end up winning the roughly three-week war, empowered by weapons and military aid from the United States. Israeli forces marched across the Suez canal into Egypt and pushed back the Syrians from Golan Heights, launching an offensive in Syria. For now, any possibility of aid for Israel is stuck as the U.S. House of Representatives remains without a Speaker.

In 1973, Egypt’s goal in crossing the Suez Canal was to force Israel to the negotiation table to make a peace deal and get back control of the Sinai peninsula. According to Avi Shilon, a historian who teaches at Tel-Hai College in Israel, “The Egyptian and the Syrians didn't plan to conquer Israel. They planned to hit Israel and to force Israel to go into negotiations. For them, it was enough to hit Israel to show that they can beat Israel in the first days, and they preferred to stop, so it was easier for Israel to launch a retaliation attack.”

After the Yom Kippur war, Prime Minister Meir of the Labor party resigned, and a rightwing government was elected for the first time, dominated by Likud (the party that the current Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has led). As part of a permanent peace treaty signed in 1979, mediated by the U.S. President Jimmy Carter, Israel returned the Sinai peninsula to Egypt.

That peace agreement would go on to form “the basis for future peace agreements between other Arab States and Israel,” says Alexander Burns, an expert on the history of the Yom Kippur war and professor of history at the Franciscan University of Steubenville.

The legacy of the Yom Kippur war lingers in other ways. After the Yom Kippur war, Israel lost a sense of security that it has never been able to fully regain. “It broke Israel's image of invincibility and made Israel more humble,” says Boaz Atzili, a political scientist at American University’s School of International Service.

As Rabinovich describes the enduring trauma for Israelis, revived in recent days: “You wonder, ‘Okay, we won the war. But can it happen again?’”

ATTACHMENT TEN – Also From Time

Why Hamas Tried to Sabotage Arab-Israeli Peace Prospects With a Massive Unprovoked Attack

BY JEFFREY SONNENFELD AND STEVEN TIAN AND DAN RAVIV OCTOBER 8, 2023 8:34 AM EDT

Sonnenfeld is senior associate dean and Lester Crown professor in management practice at Yale School of Management and president of the Yale Chief Executive Leadership Institute. He helped advise the development of the Abraham Accords and helped organize and produce the 2019 Peace Through Prosperity Conference in Bahrain, which served as a foundation for the normalization of diplomatic relations between Israel and Arab nations. Tian is the research director of the Yale Chief Executive Leadership Institute.

Raviv was a CBS News national and international correspondent for over 40 years. He is the author of several books on Israeli intelligence, including the bestseller “Every Spy a Prince: The Complete History of Israel’s Intelligence Community” as well as “Spies Against Armageddon: Inside Israel’s Secret Wars” and “Friends In Deed: Inside the U.S.-Israel Alliance.”

Exactly 50 years ago, two authors of this commentary raced out of Yom Kippur prayer services to cover the last surprise attack on Israel for news radio. Now we see Israel taken by surprise once again. The radical Palestinians of Hamas, governing the Gaza Strip since Israel’s withdrawal in 2005, managed to carry out an unprecedented and unprovoked attack by land, sea, and air—and the results that prompted Israel to declare all-out war included massacres of hundreds of innocent civilians of all ages in their homes, at children’s parties, and at concerts. Scores more were taken hostage. President Biden and leading U.S. Republican voices alike are vowing to stand strongly behind Israel.

History again echoes, as the predicate for Hamas’ attack had less to do with anything that the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu may have done—now is not the moment to blame the victim. Rather, the trigger to the attack was likely that the prospect of a wider Mideast peace was almost at hand through an impending deal between Israel and Saudi Arabia. Hamas’ sabotage parallels the disruption of the prospective Israeli-Palestinian peace plan in 2000 on the heels of a Camp David Summit when the devastation of the Second Intifada ruined any dreams of normalization and resulted in the deaths of thousands of civilians.

This time, by all accounts, Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the United States were inching closer towards a transformative three-way deal, which would have seen Israel and Saudi formally recognize each other within a security, defense, and economic partnership with the U.S. Just a week ago, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman said that “every day we get closer” to a deal, while Netanyahu similarly stated that he was confident of forging “a historic peace” between his country and Saudi Arabia, with Israeli cabinet ministers already landing in Riyadh to “nurture blossoming ties.”

Saturday’s invasion of Israel by Hamas seems to derail that in the near term, just as Hamas intended. But by sabotaging imminent peace, Hamas sadly derails the transformation of the region which had started with the Abraham Accords shepherded by Jared Kushner, which the first author helped advise and participated in, and the worst loser in all this is the Palestinian people, who will lose out on the promise of economic and security revitalization that just days ago seemed so possible.

Below, are ten questions drawing out the strategic context of how history has been repeated, and what it means moving forward.

1. Do the statements put out by Saudi Arabia and Qatar, blaming Israel for the Hamas invasion, jeopardize normalization of diplomatic relations between Saudi and Israel?

Clearly that was the intent by Hamas; and indeed it now appears very unlikely there will be any near-term normalization of diplomatic relations as was expected. When there is a major Palestinian crisis, it becomes impossible for the leadership of Saudi Arabia to publicly break ranks from the Islamic and Arabic camp, and it is even more unlikely to think Qatar might break ranks.

During moments like this, across the entire region, voices of hardline Islamic clerics gain preeminence over more progressive voices such as that of Mohamed Allabar, founder of Emmar Properties and one of the world’s largest commercial builders, who told the first author of this article, during private talks leading up to the Abraham Accords, that “the younger generation will not let us continue to be trapped by our past. Palestinian people are our people. We get up every morning positive, and we want to do more….by generating jobs, income opportunities and filling gaps in delivering basic services, the private sector can help build momentum behind a fragile economy and instill hope in the people of the region.” But now that opportunity seems lost for the time being.

However, privately, Saudi leaders are likely celebrating the reality that Iran will face increased global rejection for funding Hamas, and that the U.S. especially, and Israel, will be even more motivated and mobilized to engage Iran as their single largest regional threat. It is possible that the prospects for diplomatic normalization in the longer term remain promising, as Iran remains the single largest common security threat in the region and Israel and Saudi are clearly stronger standing together against Iran than individually.

2. What is the role of Iran and how will the country respond moving forward?

Iran’s biggest rival in the region is Saudi Arabia with military, diplomatic, cultural, and religious hostilities dividing them. The prospect of Saudi recognition of Israeli sovereignty after 75 years of statehood would have undercut Iran’s voice in the Islamic world while uniting two of Iran’s foes. Iran has always been Hamas’ single largest sponsor, providing 70% of the financing for Hamas including upwards of $100 million in military aid every year in addition to military training and humanitarian assistance. It is highly unlikely that Hamas’ invasion of Israel could have happened without at least tacit support from Iran, whose regime was celebrating the attacks on Israel openly on Saturday with impromptu fireworks and festivals.

As Iranian-American author-journalist Roya Hakakian noted to us, “Iran needed this conflict very badly, as the hardline regime has been facing its fair share of domestic challenges, especially since the killing of Mahsa Amini last year. It has lost legitimacy in the eyes of many of its own people amidst domestic discontent, economic woes, and international isolation, and its survival depends to a large degree on symbiotic relationships with other extremists who will do Iran’s bidding.”

As Israel focuses on neutralizing Hamas’ ability to carry out terrorist attacks, there will be elevated scrutiny on Iran from the international community in the days ahead; and Iran will likely come under increasing pressure, especially through the potential withholding of the sanctions relief that Iran so desperately needs.

3. How will Egypt, Jordan, the West Bank/Palestinian Authority, Hezbollah, and other Arab nations respond?

So far, thanks in large part to President Biden’s strong deterrence, it appears other Arabic nations, especially Egypt and Jordan, are not rushing to support Hamas in any substantive ways, rhetorical flourishes aside. These nations along with the UAE, Bahrain, and Morocco have increased peaceful trade and economic cooperation with Israel over the last few years.

So, it appears a repeat of the Yom Kippur War scenario fifty years ago today, in which the Arab nations joined into a unified military coalition against Israel, is unlikely. Surely Islamic hardliners and extremist clerics across the region who believe Israel has been an unjust occupier are celebrating that Hamas has been able to hit mighty Israel so hard. But the leadership of these countries are practicing restraint, and it appears Hezbollah in Lebanon did not exploit Saturday’s chaos to launch a much-feared simultaneous attack of Israel from the north even as the Iran-backed Shi’ite militia continues to have thousands of rockets aimed towards Israel.

4. How will the U.S. respond?

President Biden and GOP leaders are expressing total, bipartisan support for Israel and endorsing Israel’s right to respond—what Israel calls “restoring deterrence," which requires Israelis to prove they are much stronger than Hamas and any Palestinian factions. There will likely be domestic pressure from some Democratic Party progressives as well as possibly Republican isolationists to limit Israel’s response in the weeks ahead, with some already calling for de-escalation. It appears that for now, those voices are confined to the fringe. An immediate bipartisan consensus appeared, supporting Israel in whatever response it chooses, with some voices calling for the full-scale destruction of Hamas.

The U.S. provides over $3 billion in defense assistance to Israel annually, with Israel the single largest recipient, and that number could conceivably increase—because otherwise, any regional vacuum left by the U.S. will clearly be filled by a stronger Iran, and potentially by China and Russia, both of whom have remained relatively quiet so far in response to Hamas’ attack. But the bipartisan consensus appears to agree that the U.S. cannot afford to draw back its support for Israel now; if Hamas and Iran are not sufficiently punished for this round of violence, there are likely only larger provocations ahead. Even isolationist Republican voices such as Vivek Ramaswamy and Marjorie Taylor Greene have come out in strong support of Israel, suggesting that at least for now the U.S. stands united behind restoring Israeli deterrence through a strong response.

However, another key lesson of the Yom Kippur War bears remembering moving forward. The last surprise invasion of Israel fifty years ago made an accidental winner out of Saudi Arabia through U.S. mistakes, even though Israel recovered from the initial setbacks in that war and triumphed over Egypt and Syria.

The U.S. was so worried that Israel would be too quick to win in 1973 that it essentially took steps to hamper Israel while simultaneously surrendering far more than it needed to the losing Arab side. The Saudis led an oil embargo, banning sales to the U.S. and key Western allies, yet America capitulated soon afterward to the Saudi nationalization of the world’s largest oil supplier, Aramco, which until then was a U.S. entity owned by Texaco, Exxon, Mobil, and Chevron, when the U.S. could have merely sliced them a piece of the enterprise as Occidental Petroleum’s Armand Hammer did with Libya’s Mummar Gaddafi. Let us hope the U.S. does not make the same mistake of panicky hesitation in supporting Israel’s security—and that agenda begins now with neutralizing the brutal terrorist dangers of Hamas.

5. What is the Israeli end game?

As the Israelis say, “Hamas started this war, and now Israel has to win it,” which is already engendering strong support from across fractious political divides with Netanyahu adding leading opposition leaders Yair Lapid and Benny Gantz to an emergency cabinet.

Many in Israel are calling for the destruction of Hamas and the full neutralization of its ability to engage in terrorist attacks against Israel—although this is complicated by the fact there are now Israelis being held hostage by Hamas in Gaza, including dozens seized Saturday, according to reports. To “restore deterrence,” and to prove Israel’s overwhelming force would require a lot of destruction within the Gaza Strip, where Hamas has thoroughly embedded its operations within civilian infrastructure. That is why Prime Minister Netanyahu is already declaring that Israel is prepared for a “long and challenging” conflict.

Hamas is not and has never been interested in compromise, unlike their rival, the Palestinian Authority run by Mahmound Abbas which governs much of the West Bank but not in Gaza. Many in the Palestinian Authority were said to welcome a Saudi peace plan as well the offer of financial assistance to improve the lives of Palestinians before Hamas sabotaged those plans Saturday.

6. In terms of Israel's access to weaponry, will the U.S. be torn about allowing access to caches of weapons, reminiscent of the U.S. domestic debates 50 years ago amidst the Yom Kippur War?

Compared with the Yom Kippur War in 1973, when Israel was taken by surprise and was running low on ammunition and airplanes, Israel’s arms industry and storehouses are more advanced today and much larger. It is doubtful Israel will run out of munitions, with one major exception—the Tamir missiles with their brilliant compact radar, which chases incoming rockets across the skies. Raytheon makes a version of that Iron Dome interceptor, and the Israelis may need more supply soon. But regardless, it appears that munitions supply or capabilities limitations will not constrain Israel’s response today the way they did fifty years ago.

7. Was Russia involved in seeking to distract from its conflict in Ukraine?

Russia has a long history of being involved in Middle East conflicts, such as when Putin essentially single-handedly propped up Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad in 2014. Russia has also nurtured extremely close ties to Iran in addition to Hamas—including with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov hosting top Hamas political leadership in Moscow just a few weeks ago. There is still much about the coordination of Saturday’s surprise attack that is not known, including to what degree Russia was involved or knew about the attack in advance. It seems plausible that Russia, at a minimum, did not disapprove of Hamas fostering chaos in the Middle East, perhaps to divert U.S. and international attention away from Putin’s struggles in Ukraine.

8. Did the attack catch Netanyahu’s government off guard due to an Israeli intelligence failure or does it speak to a lack of Israeli preparation?

Israel invests huge resources in monitoring Gaza, and for years seemed to know what Hamas and other militant groups were planning—and where they were located. But in this case, Israel was taken by surprise. The key intelligence agency within Israel is Aman—the Military Intelligence Directorate, of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF)—with tons of technology and Arabic-speaking experts. Hamas appears to have plainly fooled them by relying on old-fashioned human-to-human planning sans technology, making use of its hundreds of miles of extensive underground tunnels including those as deep as 230 feet, and leaving no traceable footprint detectable to technology.

But it may be too simple to call it an intelligence failure, as the scale and scope of Hamas’ boldness were truly unprecedented. The IDF evidently did not believe this kind of attack was even possible. The Gaza border has a long security fence, but Palestinian fighters were able to poke holes in it and find areas that Israel does not monitor thoroughly with sufficient manpower to deter a sudden large-scale attack. Israelis living in civilian towns nearby, such as Sderot, close to the Gaza Strip, thought that they were OK—living with the ever-present danger of Palestinian rockets and mortar-shells fired from Gaza, but they were relying on the Iron Dome missile-defense system to protect them. The Iron Dome was plainly overwhelmed with thousands of incoming rockets, and that was just “cover” for the Hamas special forces who swarmed into Israeli towns, murdering hundreds of civilians in the streets in broad daylight, reportedly massacring 20 cops during a siege of a police station and stuffing hostages into vans. Israel has never had to cope with this multi-level assault.

9. Did the Biden Administration’s decision to release $6 billion in frozen funds to Iran play any role in the Hamas invasion?

Already, the Biden Administration is coming under attack for its decision to release $6 billion in oil revenues frozen in overseas escrow accounts to Iran in exchange for the release of American hostages, with some Republican voices arguing that this money is being used to fund Hamas’ invasion of Israel.

It appears that the $6 billion specifically in question has not even been released from the Qatari and Korean escrow accounts yet. Furthermore, the Biden Administration argues that there will be guardrails limiting the use of these funds to humanitarian purposes only.

At the same time, there is no doubt Iran provides significant financial support to Hamas. It is hard for some to see how this does not encourage Iran’s radical aspirations and could well trigger the seizing of more hostages. Perhaps the greater tragedy is that had the Saudi-Israel normalization been better managed and more expedited, it is possible that the regional power balance within the Middle East would have already been sufficiently different to deter Iranian and Hamas aggression of the scale we have tragically just witnessed.

10. Was it a misstep to allow hardline Israeli supporters of Netanyahu into crucial security decision-making?

Israel was clearly dangerously distracted by internal judicial changes threatening its government’s balance of power, coupled with Netanyahu’s effort to undermine bribery and corruption charges against him, while placating settlers focused on expanding their hold on the West Bank—all this taking Israel’s attention away from the dangers posed by Hamas in Gaza. Israel’s own defense minister warned of the distraction risk of Netanyahu’s own antics, but few are likely discussing that now in Israel.

The tough aura of Netanyahu’s leadership coalition is as the most right-wing ever in the history of Israel, with key ministers who want to keep the West Bank forever and want to block any hopes of an independent State of Palestine, yet their bravado did little to protect Israel with greater vigilance and preparation along the Gaza border. While those right-wing ministers may have aggravated peace-seeking parties among Israelis and Palestinians, Hamas is a group dedicated to wiping out the Jewish State of Israel and refuses to recognize Israel’s legitimacy. Blaming the victim does not work here since the predicate for Hamas’ attack had less to do with anything Netanyahu did or did not do, and everything to do with Hamas and Iran intending to sabotage the potential normalization of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia. This is a bloody, murderous way of saying, “Don’t forget us, we are Hamas. We’re still here, and we’re still angry.”

ATTACHMENT ELEVEN – From Doctors Without Borders (MSF)

MSF: Israeli order to evacuate northern Gaza ‘outrageous’

Safe spaces and safe passage urgently needed for civilians trapped in Gaza.

October 13, 2023

Late Thursday night, the Israeli military warned more than a million people living in northern Gaza to evacuate within 24 hours and move to the southern part of the territory.

The international medical humanitarian organization Doctors Without Borders/Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) has around 300 people working with us as staff in Gaza. Overnight, MSF’s international staff members based in northern Gaza relocated to the south of the Strip. However, the vast majority of MSF staff in Gaza are Palestinians living in northern Gaza. Some of them are currently moving south with their families and MSF is trying to help them find shelter. Others, notably medical staff, are remaining in the north to try to treat sick and wounded people.

Ordering such large numbers of people to move in such a short period of time is impossible and will only worsen this humanitarian crisis. As for the many civilians who will not be able to leave the northern Gaza Strip, MSF is extremely concerned about their fate once the Israeli deadline expires.

MSF repeats its call for an immediate end to the indiscriminate bloodshed and for the urgent establishment of safe spaces and safe passage for civilians trapped in Gaza.

Below is a statement from Meinie Nicolai, MSF General Director, on Israel’s evacuation order:

“The Israeli government’s 24-hour notice that people in northern Gaza must leave their land, homes, and hospitals is outrageous. This represents an attack on medical care and on humanity. We are talking about more than a million human beings.

'Unprecedented' doesn’t even cover the medical humanitarian impact of this. Gaza is being flattened, thousands of people are dying. This must stop now. We condemn Israel’s demand in the strongest possible terms.”

Our work in Palestine

MSF works throughout Palestine. In Gaza, where we have worked for 20 years, our medical programs have been supporting a health care system that urgently lacks both medical personnel and supplies. Our teams work in three hospitals and several outpatient clinics, offering comprehensive care for people suffering from burns and trauma. Since 2018, we have also been running a reconstructive surgery program in northern Gaza.

In the West Bank, our work includes psychological and psychiatric services for people affected by violence, support for community health centers and emergency response plans, and basic health care through our clinics, in addition to support for Jenin hospital.

A note from MSF-USA executive director Avril Benoît: On our response to the Israel-Gaza war

• Palestine

Here at Doctors Without Borders/Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF), we are grieving the widespread suffering and death stemming from the eruption of full-scale war in Israel and Gaza. We are calling for all parties to the conflict to ensure the safety of civilians and medical facilities.

As an independent and impartial humanitarian organization, MSF delivers emergency medical care where the needs for our expertise are greatest—regardless of race, ethnicity, religion, or politics.

We are also an international movement made up of people from more than 169 nationalities working in more than 70 countries. Many of our staff here at MSF-USA have friends, family, and loved ones in Israel, Gaza, or both, for whom we are deeply worried. All of us have colleagues working right now in Gaza delivering lifesaving medical care to people caught in the crossfire.

As executive director of MSF-USA, my team and I have been receiving a number of questions about MSF’s response in the region and how we are helping to save lives. Read on below to learn about our response and our commitment to providing independent medical humanitarian care.

– Avril Benoît, executive director of MSF-USA

Is MSF providing medical care in Israel?

MSF does not currently run medical programs in Israel. This is because we focus on filling the greatest gaps in health care, and Israel has strong emergency and health systems. MSF has offered its support to Israeli hospitals treating a high number of casualties.

Is MSF providing medical care in Gaza?

MSF teams are working in Gaza and the West Bank, as we have for 20 years, providing medical care and supporting a health system that urgently lacks both medical personnel and supplies.

This is why our reporting is focused on the direct witnessing of our patients and staff on the ground in Gaza, where hospitals are becoming overwhelmed and experiencing shortages of drugs, medical supplies, and fuel for generators.

Learn more about our work in the Palestinian Territories here.

How is MSF helping in Gaza?

MSF is focused on meeting the immediate emergency medical needs of people in Gaza, and our staff have been working 24/7 since October 7. We are supporting hospitals and health facilities with donations of medical supplies as stocks are running dangerously low. On Monday, we treated 50 people at MSF-supported Al-Awda hospital after a strike on a nearby refugee camp.

Learn more about our response in Gaza here.

What conditions is MSF seeing on the ground in this region?

We are seeing shortages of water, electricity, and fuel, which hospitals rely on for their generators. Some hospitals only have enough fuel for four days.

Attacks on health care facilities, vehicles, and personnel have disrupted our ability to respond to the emergency. On Saturday, MSF-supported Indonesian hospital was damaged in an airstrike. Our clinic in Gaza City was slightly damaged from the blast of an explosion on Monday, but is still operational. A nurse and ambulance driver were killed in strikes, and several others were injured.

What does it mean to be an independent and impartial medical humanitarian organization?

MSF provides medical care to any patient who needs it, regardless of race, religion, or political affiliation. We are calling on all parties to the conflict to ensure the safety of civilians, medical facilities, and personnel. Hospitals must remain a sanctuary for people seeking care.

ATTACHMENT TWELVE – From GUK

Here in the West Bank, Palestinians are expecting awful reprisals. Such is the cycle of adversity

The images from the Hamas attack are an affront to humanity. But we mustn’t forget the traumatic history shaping events

By Fatima AbdulKarim Tue 10 Oct 2023 05.47 EDT

The horrific footage from Gaza over the past two days cannot help but shock, but it also prompts stark confrontation with the grim reality that has plagued Palestine for decades. Images of the torment and brutal killings of hundreds of Israeli civilians bring back memories of the violence and humiliation suffered by Palestinians, including children, women, elderly and disabled people, over many years. The images of assaults on hostages also recollect painful past events: they are an undeniable affront to humanity. Attacking civilians, irrespective of the side perpetrating the violence, lacks any semblance of honour.

In the first days of fighting, the toll of human life has been devastating on both sides, with over 1,500 people killed. At least 900 Israelis have lost their lives, with thousands more injured. It’s a tragedy of awful proportions.

The attack on Israel has been called a ‘9/11 moment’.Therein lies a cautionary tale | Kenneth Roth

As of Monday, the ministry of health in Gaza reported about 700 Palestinians killed by Israeli airstrikes and also thousands injured, with an additional 15 lives lost in the West Bank. The staggering numbers underscore the vicious cycle of violence that begets further violence.

While condemning the unjustified acts of aggression from the Palestinian armed groups Hamas and Islamic Jihad, it is crucial to recognise the undeniable trauma inflicted on Palestinians over the years. We have lived with pervasive fear and dread under the relentless sieges and assaults on Gaza and the prolonged military regime in the West Bank.

Some have described the attack as “unprovoked”, but history would suggest otherwise. The story of my country is one of historical grievances and political realities that contribute in the present to the daily violence within Palestine, and the ongoing conflict between the territories and Israel.

The besieged enclave of the Gaza Strip has been governed by the political and militant Islamic group Hamas since 2007. The siege by Israel, put in place in the same year, has given rise to economic struggles, heightened unemployment rates, and restricted access to vital resources.

The situation continues to deteriorate. More than 120,000 Palestinians have been displaced, with the Israeli defence minister deciding to cut off electricity, fuel and water from Gaza, describing its people as “human animals”. Israel has warned residents of the al-Rimal neighbourhood in the heart of Gaza City to evacuate, but people do not know where to go.

In the West Bank, the territory where I live, we struggle to live normal lives. Recent years have been marked by soaring deaths, demolitions and displacements, witnessed and documented by international NGOs, the UN and diplomatic representatives. Yet no action has followed.

Now, the streets are eerie. People are in shock and awe of the proactive, well planned and coordinated attack launched by the militant groups in Gaza. The attack was immediately followed by the imposition of a full lockdown, which tightens the grip on the daily lives of the West Bank’s residents, restricting our movements and intensifying the limitations on access to essential services and resources.

A heavy military presence is converging on the area and we expect an escalation in the number and range of violent settler attacks. Expect, too, more lone wolf attacks by Palestinians against military posts or settlers, an inevitability given the gravity of the casualties.

We are living through yet another phase in the cycle of adversity that defines life in this occupied territory.

• Fatima AbdulKarim is a journalist based in Ramallah

ATTACHMENT THIRTEEN – From US News and World Report

The Massive Challenges Ahead for an Israeli Ground Invasion of Gaza

Urban assaults, like what will be required to control the densely populated areas of the Gaza Strip, are among the most difficult and deadly operations a military can attempt.

By Cecelia Smith-Schoenwalder Senior WriterOct. 12, 2023, at 6:48 p.m.

With a ground invasion of Gaza appearing imminent, analysts say battles could last for weeks – or more likely, months – and that Israel is set to face a barrage of foreseen and unforeseen challenges that will drastically shape the next stages of war.

In the face of mounting pressure to oust Hamas members following an unprecedented attack that killed Israelis in their homes and on the streets on Saturday, Israel Defense Forces called up more than 300,000 reservists as it seeks to “make sure that Hamas at the end of this war won't have any military capabilities by which they can threaten or kill Israeli civilians."

Israel on Friday further signaled a coming invasion when its military directed the evacuation of northern Gaza within 24 hours. United Nations spokesman Stéphane Dujarric called the order “impossible” without “devastating humanitarian consequences.”

Some obstacles are a given. For one, 2.3 million Palestinians live in Gaza who have nowhere to go, sealed in behind heavily fortified closed border crossings with Israel and Egypt.

“With high population and population density, it's going to be extremely difficult and extremely bloody fighting,” says Bill Roggio, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. “Both sides will take significant casualties.”

More than 180,000 Palestinians in Gaza are packed into United Nations shelters. But even such shelters, which should be safe zones, can be at risk during wartime.

“Such an invasion would be difficult for the Israeli military and devastating for Palestinian civilians,” experts at the Center for Strategic and International Studies wrote in an analysis. “Gaza is among the most densely populated places on earth, and urban assaults are among the most difficult and deadly of all operations a military can attempt.”

While Israel would be expected to try to limit civilian casualties, it’s virtually certain that death tolls for both Israel and Gaza will increase.

“I think they're going to proceed very carefully,” Roggio says of Israel’s possible invasion of Gaza. “They're going to look to try to limit the civilian casualties as best as possible, but it's going to be really difficult for the Israelis to do.”

Efforts to reduce damage could include messaging civilians to leave combat areas, “roof knocking,” or dropping low-yield explosives on roofs to encourage civilians to leave before an attack or “placing legal advisers at tactical commands,” according to an analysis from John Spencer, the chair of urban warfare studies at the Modern War Institute.

Experts say a ground invasion could last weeks, or, more likely, months.

“In order to fully achieve the objective of destroying Hamas military capability in Gaza, ground forces will require weeks, if not months,” Spencer wrote in the analysis. “This is the unavoidable nature of clearing urban terrain.”

Spencer said that Hamas is likely to rely heavily on close combat, strongpoints and snipers if Israel invades Gaza. Strongpoints, which are buildings made of concrete and steel often with basements and tunnels, can sometimes take days, weeks or even months to clear, according to Spencer.

Roggio says that Israel should also be concerned about the possibility that Hamas may have more sophisticated weapons and tactics it hasn’t yet used, like anti aircraft capabilities.

“They may be saving some of those capabilities for when they come in on the ground,” he says.

Another strategy the Israeli military is likely anticipating is the use of human shields, which Hamas has been known to do. Hamas is believed to be holding about 150 hostages.

Roggio says it doesn’t seem likely that Israel will halt everything and negotiate releases that would probably involve prisoner exchanges.

“I don't see that being acceptable to the Israeli people,” he says. “They can't be constrained with what they're going to do militarily by them holding hostages. The rules in this game have changed.”

The situation is further complicated by the fact that Americans are also being held hostages by Hamas, not to mention that much of what could happen in the streets of Gaza would be captured on camera, so Israel's decisions are likely to be heavily scrutinized.

There is no doubt that there will be other challenges that can’t be anticipated. One major determinant for what lies ahead is how much political will and time Israel has to achieve their goals.

Determination tends to wane the longer an operation takes, according to Spencer.

“And in urban warfare, time is a critical component,” he said. “It takes time to minimize harm to noncombatants. And it takes time to plan, prepare and execute a city attack in a way that maximizes the likelihood of success. Once an urban battle commences, history makes clear that with each passing day, as civilian casualties and collateral damage mount, international pressure to cease fighting increases.”

Beyond its militant wing, Hamas has been the de facto governing body of Gaza since 2007. A survey conducted in July by the Washington Institute for Near East policy found that 58% of those in Gaza had a “very positive” or “somewhat positive” view of Hamas, which has a membership between 20,000 and 25,000, according to the Office of the Director of National Intelligence.

Still, the institute said that half of those polled in Gaza agreed with the statement: “Hamas should stop calling for Israel’s destruction, and instead accept a permanent two-state solution based on the 1967 borders.” And the group has been losing popularity in key Arab states, the recent polling found.

Israel is no stranger to international pressure, but it has the support of many nations in its pursuit to destroy Hamas’ military capabilities. The U.S. is reportedly coordinating with other countries to offer civilians safe passage out of Gaza.

A big unknown moving forward is what Israel will do even if it is successful in its pursuits. The Israeli government would need to decide whether to potentially leave a weakened Hamas behind in Gaza or to overthrow its administration.

“Neither option is appealing,” according to the analysis from CSIS experts. “If Hamas survives, it will claim a strategic triumph over Israel. If it is overthrown, no moderate Palestinian force exists to replace it.”

Without a replacement, “Israel will have little choice but to assume direct control over Gaza, which will most likely exacerbate Palestinian militancy, deepen the divisions within Israeli society, and tie up its military and economic resources in an open-ended counterinsurgency campaign,” according to the analysis.

ATTACHMENT FOURTEEN – From Time

Israelis Dread This Nightmare Will Never End

BY EETTA PRINCE-GIBSON OCTOBER 12, 2023 2:00 AM EDT

Eetta Prince-Gibson is the Israel editor for Moment magazine, the former editor in chief of the Jerusalem Report, and a regular contributor to Haaretz, +61J, and other international publications.

Blessed rains have washed away the interminable heat and dust of summer. In Jerusalem, where I live, the air is wonderfully fresh and the mornings are brisk and chilly. But the streets are unnervingly quiet. Schools have been closed all week. Most cafes and stores have been closed, too, since no one feels much like sipping artisan espresso or shopping, and many of the regulars have been called up for reserve duty.

We sit in our homes, obsessively reading the papers, simultaneously watching social media and trying to avert our eyes from it and avoid the snuff videos that Hamas has jubilantly posted.

Most people aren't sleeping much. WhatsApp groups and other social media remain busy way into the early morning, then suddenly quiet down around dawn, when it seems that all of us fall into fitful sleep for a few hours.

We are living with the realization that every possible horrible thing that we thought could never happen has happened. And it feels like nothing in Israel will ever be the same after Saturday, October 7th, when over a thousand Hamas fighters burst into Israel and gleefully slaughtered more than 1,200 citizens, wounded 3007, and dragged an estimated 150, including breast-feeding infants and infirm elderly, into Gaza.

How could this happen? How could Hamas overcome our military prowess, our much-vaunted intelligence capabilities, our hi-tech fences and sensors? In Hebrew, we are talking about a mechdal, best translated as the failure, or the screw-up. But the English translation doesn't convey the deep horror, sadness, fear, insecurity and, maybe above all, dread that has gripped Israeli society.

Read More: Israel's Darkest Hour Casts a Shadow on the World

Dread that the barrage of missiles in the south will continue. Dread that sporadic missiles will continue to threaten us. Dread that as our forces clear out the destroyed villages in southern Israel, they will find more mutilated corpses, more dead children, whole families executed as they hid in their safe rooms, the reinforced chamber that is a part of every Israeli home.

In a country with less than two degrees of separation, we are full of dread that someone else that we know will be among the dead. We worry for the safety of the mostly-young men and women who have been called up to the reserves. That more people will be hurt in the south by more missiles form Hamas, and in north as Hezbollah continues intermittently fires rockets into Israel—and that Hezbollah will join in in earnest, using its 150,000 rockets to open up another war front, by targeting civilians.

We dread that this nightmare will never end, that we will never be able to heal.

Much of the country has turned into a massive volunteer unit, organized by groups like Brothers and Sisters in Arms, who only last week were vilified by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu when they declared that they would not report for volunteer reserve duty if Netanyahu persists in his anti-democratic judicial overhaul. Those who were called up for reserve duty have reported. The rest have set up a civic infrastructure, organizing transportation and housing for displaced families and collecting necessities such as diapers, women's hygiene products, and socks.

The line in Tel Aviv to donate blood was over half a mile long, and people stood, quietly and patiently, sometimes organizing themselves in rounds of singing to raise their morale. High school students and grandparents are providing baby-sitting services for parents who have been called to the reserves. Mental health professionals are providing psychological and emotional support to victims. Graphic artists have instantaneously designed and uploaded coloring books for the traumatized children. Professionals are offering free massages and yoga and Pilates lessons.

Thousands are opening their homes to people who from the south – and now from the north – who need a respite. Breast milk is being delivered to nursing babies whose mothers are dead or missing.

And everyone seems to be cooking, including celebrity chefs and elegant restaurants. A group calling itself Grilling for the IDF spent a day barbecuing and then delivering the food to soldiers. Some of us are making sure that there is gluten-free food, too.

It's a way to keep busy, to be useful, to try find something positive in the horror.

But even volunteering only helps for a while.

We are reminded of the 1973 Yom Kippur War. Operation Iron Swords, as the new catastrophe is now known, began on October 7th, 50 years and one day after the sudden outbreak of the Yom Kippur War. Like the Yom Kippur War, the Hamas attack fell on us by surprise, on a holiday, on the Sabbath, on a beautiful, seemingly innocent autumn day.

But more people died on October 7th than in the first week of the Yom Kippur War. Indeed, more Jews died on that day than at any time since the Holocaust. Our minds lurch to even deeper, more primal recollections. Kibbutz Beeri, with 1,200 residents, where at least 108 bodies have been found and Kibbutz Nahal Oz, where the number of dead is unknown remind us of the collective memory of the 1903 Kishinev pogrom in Czarist Russia that led poet-laureate H.N. Bialik to write the searing City of Slaughter. The helpless Israeli child terrorized by Gazan youngsters while crying for his mother, posted by with the caption "For the first time, Gazan kids get to see an Israeli child crying for his mother," reminds me of the Boy in the Warsaw Ghetto, his hands held up in terrified surrender. The child was put in a circle of Gazan children who were told to bully and terrorize him while he stood there helpless

Above all, we think about the hostages, knowing that Hamas has made it clear that it will refuse to abide by any international conventions and will not even provide a definitive list of names of the people they have kidnapped or tell their loved ones if they are dead or alive.

Israel was founded, among many other reasons, so that Jews would never again be passive victims, that we could live as a people with at least a modicum of safety, and we are gripped by a deep sense of insecurity.

Our own institutions have failed us. It took the army eight to ten hours to get to the people who were calling their families and even public radio stations from their supposed safe rooms, begging for help and rescue. We know now that the troops deployed on the ground at the time were inadequate because they had been redeployed to the West Bank, that the military had become complacent, and that the government had not been focusing on the real risks.

Our government has abandoned us, too. The Prime Minister has not yet visited any of the victims, and few of his 33-seat government have, either. The Prime Minister has gone on television several times to promise revenge and a putative victory, but has not offered words of comfort or hope. The logistical relief that democratic caring governments are supposed to provide is being provided by civil society.

Israelis are divided about how to respond to the government's obtuse lack of compassion and inadequacy. Some, including many who oppose the government and have been part of the protest movement, are calling for unity, saying now is not the time to deal with political divisiveness. Many are calling for a unity government (as I wrote these words, one was announced). Others are demanding that Netanyahu and his government resign immediately, fearful that this government, composed of messianic extremists, nationalist fundamentalists, and an indicted prime minister who needs the government to stay out of jail, is incapable of dealing with the geopolitical challenges and moral dilemmas that we will face in the coming weeks.

But almost all of us share a sense of horror and a deep need for revenge. I feel like most Americans must have felt after 9/11 or Pearl Harbor. I want Hamas to be wiped out.

But not only for revenge. I believe that Hamas is not a legitimate political entity, but rather a local ISIS or al-Qaeda, opposed to any perspective or existence other than its own. I believe that Hamas must be annihilated so that we, and the Gazans, can live.

Like ISIS and al-Qaeda, Hamas has no regard for the value of human life. They will use their own children as human shields. They will sacrifice their own people to further their fundamentalist goals. And so I don't know how we can wipe out Hamas without killing innocent Gazan citizens.

But then what? After we all bury our dead, and try to rebuild, and try to overcome the pain and the rage—then what?

I am filled with dread because none of the leaders, on either side, have any long-term answers other than hatred and rejection. None of our supposed leaders are capable of suggesting a plan that will allow both our peoples to be safe from evil, safe in our homes, and safe to live our lives as individuals and as people.

ATTACHMENT FIFTEEN – From Reuters

Israel and Hamas at war: Latest news

October 13, 202311:42 AM EDTUpdated 4 hours ago

Oct 13 (Reuters) - Countries urged Israel to hold off on plans for an all-out assault on the Gaza Strip.

More than a million Palestinian civilians largely defied the Israeli military's order to evacuate ahead of its expected offensive.

The United Nations Palestinian refugee agency described Israel's call as "horrendous" and said the enclave was rapidly becoming a "hell hole".

CONFLICT

* Israeli security forces killed nine Palestinians and wounded dozens in confrontations across the West Bank on Friday, the Palestinian health ministry said. The Israeli military has said it is prepared for an escalation in the West Bank and is on high alert.

* U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu discussed establishing safe areas in Gaza where civilians could relocate. The U.S. is engaging with the ICRC and U.N. relief agencies, a State Department official said.

* Egypt said it was directing international humanitarian aid flights for Gaza to Al Arish airport in Sinai, near the Rafah border crossing. But it rejects any move to set up safe corridors for fleeing refugees, Egyptian security sources said.

"Egypt was keen to open the Rafah crossing to provide humanitarian aid, food and medicine, but instability and the expansion of the conflict leads to more hardship and more refugees to safe areas, including Europe," Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry said.

* Human Rights Watch accused Israel of using white phosphorus munitions in its military operations in Gaza and Lebanon. The Israeli military denied it.

* "The United Nations considers it impossible for such a movement to take place without devastating humanitarian consequences," U.N. spokesman Stephane Dujarric said.

* Israel is waging all-out war on Hamas militants to safeguard its future, its defence minister Yoav Gallant said - "This is a war for the existence of Israel as a prosperous state, as a democratic state, as homeland of the Jewish people."

* Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas told U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken that he "rejects the forced displacement" of Palestinians in Gaza.

* Blinken said the Israeli government showed him photographs and videos of Hamas atrocities. He said they showed a baby "riddled with bullets", soldiers beheaded and young people burned in their cars. "It's simply depravity in the worst imaginable way," he said.

* The Hamas attack on Saturday killed more than 1,300 Israelis. More than 1,500 Palestinians have been killed in retaliatory attacks.

HUMAN IMPACT

* Israeli air strikes have made major cemeteries in Gaza dangerous to reach so mourning families are burying their dead in informal graveyards dug in empty lots.

* An Israeli family fears for an ailing grandmother driven off by Hamas gunmen.

* When Israel called up its reservists and declared war this week, the response was swift and overwhelming.

INTERNATIONAL

* Saudi Arabia is putting U.S.-backed plans to normalise ties with Israel on ice, sources said, signalling a rapid rethinking of its foreign policy priorities.

The Saudi rethink highlights challenges facing Washington's efforts to deepen Israel’s integration in a region where the Palestinian cause remains a major Arab concern.

* Israel's call for more than 1 million to move within 24 hours is going to be a "tall order," White House national security spokesman John Kirby said - "That is a lot of people to move in a very short period of time."

* In Baghdad tens of thousands of Iraqis rallied in central Tahrir Square, waving Palestinian flags and burning the Israeli flag while chanting anti-U.S. and anti-Israeli slogans. Other rallies were organized in Palestinian camps as well as Lebanese cities where Hezbollah has a strong presence.

* Jewish communities in France, Poland and elsewhere were also holding rallies in solidarity with Israel

* Police in New York and Los Angeles said they would step up patrols, especially around synagogues and Jewish community centers, though authorities insisted they were unaware of any specific threats.

* Russian President Vladimir Putin said Israel was replyingto an attack of unprecedented cruelty by using cruel methods of its own.

* U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said that the Pentagon was ready to deploy more military aid to Israel.

* The International Criminal Court has jurisdiction over potential war crimes carried out by Hamas in Israel and Israelis in the Gaza Strip, even though Israel is not a member state, the ICC's top prosecutor told Reuters.

"One doesn't need to be the prosecutor of the ICC. Any human being's heart must be chilled and frozen and heartbroken at seeing the pictures that are coming out of Israel and Palestine these last few days," ICC prosecutor Karim Khan said.

* Hezbollah deputy chief Naim Qassem said the group would not be swayed by calls for it to stay on the sidelines of the conflict, saying the party was "fully ready" to contribute to the fighting.

* Jordanian riot police forcibly dispersed hundreds of pro-Palestinian protesters trying to reach a border zone with the Israeli-occupied West Bank. Jordan fears repercussions for itself as many of its population are Palestinians.

* The Vatican offered to mediate between Israel and Palestinian militants.

* Republican infighting in the U.S. House of Representatives has left the chamber unable to act to support Israel's war and pass government spending bills before funding runs out.

INSIGHTS

* An Israeli invasion of Gaza will face an enemy that has built a formidable armoury and dug a vast tunnel network to evade attackers.

* U.S. President Joe Biden is facing little pressure at home to rein in Israel. He appears to have given Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu a free hand. But a ground offensive and higher civilian death toll - could force the president to rethink that approach.

* A factbox on the Gaza Strip, devastated by conflict and economic blockade.

* The war falls under a complex international system of justice that has emerged since World War Two.

* The conflict hinges on statehood, land, Jerusalem and refugees, pitting Israeli demands for security against Palestinian aspirations for a state of their own.

* "He is elusive. He is the man in the shadows." The secretive Hamas mastermind behind the assault: Mohammed Deif.

* The Israel-Hamas war upends Biden's two-pronged Mideast strategy: brokering Israeli-Saudi detente and containing Iran's nuclear ambitions.

MARKETS AND BUSINESS

* The G20 chair, India, said the Middle East conflict raises fuel price concerns.

* United Arab Emirates stock markets tumbled on Friday, tracking global equities as a widening conflict between Hamas militants and Israel made investors nervous.

* Israel's Economy Ministry said dozens of imported products would be exempt from inspection and other approvals to facilitate their entry into Israel and help to prevent shortages during the war

* Airlines wrestled with the safety risk of evacuation operations.

* What are global firms with a presence in Israel doing after the Hamas attack?

Compiled by Stephen Farrell, Lisa Shumaker and Lincoln Feast

ATTACHMENT SIXTEEN – From WashPost

Israel says 1.1M residents must leave north Gaza Strip; Reuters journalist killed in shelling

Israel called on the entire population of the northern Gaza Strip — about 1.1 million people — to move south in the Palestinian territory within 24 hours. Israeli strikes are pounding the densely populated enclave, and troops are massing nearby ahead of an anticipated ground incursion after Hamas militants staged one of the deadliest attacks in Israeli history. Hamas described the evacuation warning as psychological warfare and urged people not to comply. Gaza authorities said there was nowhere safe to go under siege, while health officials said it would be impossible to evacuate hospitals, which are already facing power shortages and dwindling supplies. In southern Lebanon, meanwhile, a journalist with the Reuters news agency was killed Friday while covering clashes there. Six other journalists were injured, including two from the Al Jazeera news channel, after the journalists were struck by what Al Jazeera said was Israeli shelling.

Key updates

• Facing criticism, Netanyahu says he’s spoken to ‘a few’ families of hostages

• Israel did not warn U.S. before Gaza evacuation orders, official says

• Reuters journalist killed in southern Lebanon, agency says

Here's what to know

Israel said it has notified the families of 120 hostages taken captive by Hamas during its cross-border assault. Washington is working closely with Israel to secure the release of hostages, including Americans, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said from Tel Aviv.

Austin said the United States “stands fully ready to deploy additional assets” after sending weapons to Israel and the USS Gerald R. Ford carrier strike group to the region. Secretary of State Antony Blinken visited Amman, where he met with Mahmoud Abbas, head of the Palestinian Authority, and King Abdullah II of Jordan.

The Israeli parliament approved a unity government formed by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Benny Gantz, leader of the opposition National Unity party, to pursue actions concerning the conflict.

The Hamas attack killed at least 1,300 people in Israel and wounded about 3,300, authorities said. Palestinian officials said more than 1,500 people in Gaza have been killed and about 6,600 injured as a result of Israeli strikes.

ATTACHMENT SEVENTEEN – From Time

‘This Is Chaos’: Israel Orders ‘Impossible’ Gaza Evacuation as Hamas Tells People to Stay Put

BY ISABEL DEBRE, EDITH M. LEDERER, AND WAFAA SHURAFA / AP UPDATED: OCTOBER 13, 2023 6:00 AM EDT | ORIGINALLY PUBLISHED: OCTOBER 13, 2023 2:00 AM EDT

JERUSALEM — Israel’s military told some 1 million Palestinians on Friday to evacuate northern Gaza and head to the southern part of the besieged territory, an unprecedented order applying to almost half the population ahead of an expected ground invasion against the ruling Hamas militant group.

The U.N. warned that so many people fleeing en masse would be calamitous. Hamas, which staged a shocking and brutal attack on Israel nearly a week ago and has fired thousands of rockets since, dismissed it as a ploy and called on people to stay in their homes.

Read More: A Surprise Attack Upends Israel and the Middle East

The evacuation order, which includes Gaza City, home to hundreds of thousands of Palestinians, sparked widespread panic among civilians and aid workers already running from Israeli airstrikes and contending with a total siege and a territory-wide blackout.

“Forget about food, forget about electricity, forget about fuel. The only concern now is just if you’ll make it, if you’re going to live,” said Nebal Farsakh, a spokesperson for the Palestinian Red Crescent in Gaza City, as she broke into heaving sobs.

The war has already claimed over 2,800 lives on both sides and sent tensions soaring across the region. Israel has traded fire in recent days with Lebanon’s Hezbollah militant group, sparking fears of an ever wider conflict, though that frontier is currently calm.

Read More: What Military Experts Say to Look Out for in an Israel-Hamas War

Weekly Muslim prayers brought protests in some nearby countries, and tensions ran high in Jerusalem's Old City. The Islamic endowment that manages a flashpoint holy site in the city, the Al-Aqsa Mosque compound, said Israeli authorities were barring all Palestinian men under the age of 50 from entering.

Israel has bombarded Gaza round-the-clock since a weekend attack in which Hamas fighters stormed into the country’s south and massacred hundreds, including killing children in their homes and young people at a music festival. Militants also snatched some 150 people and dragged them into Gaza.

Read More: A Survivor Recounts the Horror of the Hamas Attack on Israel’s Supernova Festival

Hamas said Israel’s bombardment has killed 13 of the hostages, including foreigners. It did not give their nationalities, saying they were killed over the last 24 hours.

Israeli military spokesperson spokesperson Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari denied that airstrikes killed hostages, telling Al-Jazeera Arabic that “we have our own information and do not believe the lies of Hamas.”

The military urged all civilians in Gaza’s north to move south, according to Hagari—an order that the U.N. said affects 1.1 million people.

Israel said it needed to target Hamas’ military infrastructure, much of which is buried deep underground. Another spokesperson, Jonathan Conricus, said the military would take “extensive efforts to avoid harming civilians” and that residents would be allowed to return when the war is over.

Read More: A Former Israeli Intelligence Chief on Atrocities, the Coming Invasion of Gaza, and the Fate of Hostages

Hamas militants operate in civilian areas, where Israel has long accused them of using Palestinians as human shields. A mass evacuation of civilians, if carried out, would leave their fighters exposed as never before.

But U.N. spokesperson Stephane Dujarric said it would be impossible to stage such an evacuation without “devastating humanitarian consequences.” He called on Israel to rescind any such orders, saying they could “transform what is already a tragedy into a calamitous situation.”

Hamas, meanwhile, called on Palestinians to stay in their homes, saying Israel “is trying to create confusion among citizens and harm the cohesion of our internal front.” It called on Palestinians to ignore what it said was ”psychological warfare.”

Gaza’s Health Ministry said it was not possible to evacuate the many wounded from hospitals, and that hospital staff would not heed the warning.

Read More: Gaza’s Electricity Crisis Could Turn Hospitals Into ‘Morgues’

“We have a duty and a humanitarian mission, and we cannot evacuate hospitals and leave the wounded and sick to die,” spokesperson Ashraf al-Qidra said. In the event of severe Israeli strikes, he said there was simply no other place in the Gaza Strip to take and treat patients.

The U.N. agency for Palestinian refugees, known as UNRWA, also said it was not evacuating its schools, where hundreds of thousands have taken shelter. But it has relocated its headquarters to southern Gaza, according to spokesperson Juliette Touma.

Pressed by reporters on whether the army would protect hospitals, U.N. shelters and other civilian locations, Hagari, the Israeli military spokesperson, warned that “it’s a war zone.”

He added: “If Hamas prevents residents from evacuating, the responsibility lies with them.”

Read More: Five Lessons for the U.S. and the World From the Hamas Invasion of Israel

The evacuation orders were taken as a further signal of an already expected Israeli ground offensive, though Israel has not yet announced such a decision.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has vowed to “crush” Hamas, which has ruled Gaza since 2007. His government is under intense public pressure to topple the group rather than merely bottle it up in Gaza as it has for years.

A visit by U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Thursday, along with shipments of U.S. weapons, offered a powerful green light for Israel to drive ahead with its retaliation. U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin arrived in Israel on Friday.

Still, a ground offensive in densely populated and impoverished Gaza would likely bring even higher casualties on both sides in brutal house-to-house fighting.

Read More: What an Israeli Ground Invasion Would Mean for Gaza

“This is chaos, no one understands what to do,” said Inas Hamdan, an officer at UNRWA, while she grabbed whatever she could throw into her bags as the panicked shouts of her relatives could be heard around her.

Yasser Hassouna, an activist in Gaza City, said “everyone panicked” when they saw the U.N. staff leaving. “Hamas said it was psychological warfare, and we know there has been a lot of that. No one knows what is real and what is fake news right now.”

Farsakh, of the Palestinian Red Crescent, said there was no way so many people could be safely moved—especially those with ailments.

“What will happen to our patients?” she asked. “We have wounded, we have elderly, we have children who are in hospitals.” Farsakh said many of the medics were refusing to evacuate hospitals and abandon patients. Instead, she said, they called their colleagues to say goodbye.

Beyond the immediate fear and logistical difficulties, the order has deep resonance in Gaza, where more than half of the Palestinians are the descendants of refugees from the 1948 war surrounding Israel’s creation, when hundreds of thousands fled or were expelled from what is now Israel. That exodus is deeply seared into their collective memory.

Already, at least 423,000 people—nearly one in five Gazans—have been forced from their homes by Israeli airstrikes, the U.N. said Thursday.

Neighboring Egypt has meanwhile taken “unprecedented measures” to reinforce its border with Gaza and prevent any breaches, a senior Egyptian security official said. The official spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to brief reporters.

Egypt, which made peace with Israel decades ago and has long served as a regional mediator, is staunchly opposed to resettling Palestinians on its territory, both because of the costs involved and because it would undermine their quest for an independent state. The Rafah crossing from Gaza into Egypt, the only one not controlled by Israel, has been closed because of airstrikes.

Read More: What Comes After War in Gaza

Hamas’ unprecedented assault last Saturday, and days of heavy rocket fire since, have killed more than 1,300 people in Israel, including 247 soldiers—a toll unseen in Israel for decades. The ensuing Israeli bombardment has killed more than 1,530 people in Gaza, according to the Palestinian Health Ministry.

Israel says roughly 1,500 Hamas militants were killed inside Israel, and that hundreds of the dead in Gaza are Hamas members.

On Thursday, Israel said its complete siege of Gaza—which has left Palestinians desperate for food, fuel and medicine—would remain in place until Hamas militants free the hostages taken.

Read More: Israelis Dread This Nightmare Will Never End

“Not a single electricity switch will be flipped on, not a single faucet will be turned on and not a single fuel truck will enter until the Israeli hostages are returned home,” Israeli Energy Minister Israel Katz said on social media.

—Shurafa reported from Gaza City and Lederer from Chicago. AP writers Joseph Krauss in Jerusalem, Samya Kullab in Baghdad, Samy Magdy in Cairo, and Kareem Chehayeb in Beirut contributed to this report.

ATTACHMENT EIGHTEEN – From Fox News

Hamas’ ‘Day of Rage’ draws heightened security in major American cities, attention from the FBI

By Greg Norman Fri, October 13, 2023 at 9:23 AM EDT·

Local and federal law enforcement in Washington, D.C., told Fox News Digital Friday they are ramping up their presence in the nation’s capital as Hamas’ call for a "Day of Rage" -- which Israel says is targeting its people and Jews – is putting American cities on alert.

The moves come as large protests unfolded in the Middle East, with massive crowds turning out in countries such as Yemen and Iraq to show support for Palestinians. In Lebanon, supporters of the Hezbollah militant group, were heard chanting "Death to Israel!" while in Tehran, Iranians were heard Friday yelling ""Death to America" and "Israel will be doomed," the Associated Press reports.

In the West Bank, Jordanian riot police also dispersed hundreds of pro-Palestinian protesters trying to reach a border area as thousands of others held anti-Israel demonstrations throughout the country, witnesses told Reuters.

U.S. Capitol Police and the Metropolitan Police Department say that although there are no specific threats to the District of Columbia or Congress, they are increasing their visibility Friday out of an abundance of caution.

LIVE UPDATES: ISRAEL AT WAR WITH HAMAS

"We are enhancing security throughout the Capitol Complex. Some of what we are doing will be visible, but for safety reasons we cannot provide the public details about all of the resources that we are putting into protecting the Congress," the U.S. Capitol Police told Fox News Digital in a statement. "Our dedicated teams are working around the clock to coordinate with our law enforcement and intelligence partners across the country to keep everyone safe."

READ ON THE FOX NEWS APP

Fencing has been put up around the U.S. Capitol Building, according to Fox5 DC.

Metro Police said in its own statement that it is "working with our local, state, and federal law enforcement partners to monitor events unfolding worldwide.

"Out of an abundance of caution, MPD will have increased visibility around the city and at places of worship to help ensure the safety of our community," it added. "MPD has been in contact with multiple community partners throughout the past week and we remain in contact with them."

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Elsewhere, the FBI told Fox News on Thursday that it is aware of "calls for global action on Friday, October 13th that may lead to demonstrations in communities throughout the United States.

"We are working closely with our law enforcement partners across the country to share information and identify and disrupt any threats that may emerge," it said.

SOME JEWISH AMERICANS PLAN TO SEND KIDS TO SCHOOL, WORSHIP IN DEFIANT MESSAGE AGAINST HAMAS

The New York City Police Department also said last night that it has "increased our uniform deployments at large gatherings and cultural sites to ensure public safety." Additionally, the Los Angeles Police Department said the same day that it is assessing the situation as well.

The Israel National Security Council and Ministry of Foreign Affairs said it is recommending all Israelis abroad to "be alert, keep away from the demonstrations and protests and – if necessary – check with local security forces regarding possible protests and disturbances in the area."

"Against the background of Operation Swords of Iron, the Hamas leadership has called on all of its supporters around the world to hold a 'Day or Rage'... (Friday, 13 October 2023) and attack Israelis and Jews," the agencies said in a joint statement. "It is reasonable to assume that there will be protest events in various countries that are liable to turn violent."

"The National Security Council, the security services and Ministry of Foreign Affairs will continue to act everywhere in order to safeguard the security of Israeli citizens around the world," the statement added.

PEANUT GALLERY (yahoo/fox)

• Kerry

4 hours ago

I feel a little safer today knowing I live in america and can keep my pistol on my hip when walking through downtown. I think this whole thing is a tragedy and hate to see people hurt or lose their life. With that being said, I will gladly protect myself, my family, and any innocent person if I see them attacked by a knife welding sympathizer. Send them to Allah in a quick second and I wont feel bad about it.

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• Steve

3 hours ago

Lock them up if they broke the laws! Just a simple solution. Act of violence is not acceptable; it is assault battery (California penal code 240 and 242). Everyone has the right to hold peaceful protest but act of violence is against the laws, and not part of the bill of rights.

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• Allen

4 hours ago

those have already crossed our open border & getting ready for the attack at the right time , not a matter of if just when. so guard cities for show but the border is open for Hamas & others business inside USA.

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• AK2MX2K

3 hours ago

The day of rage should be met with a "day of law enforcement" where they are all rounded up as Terrorist Sympathisers and all who are not natural born citizens should be charged, their citizenship stripped and mass deported.

The natural born citizens should be put on a terror watch list, publicized ...

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• Bob Z

3 hours ago

Sadly, we have to be more aware and look over our shoulder almost every day - especially in houses of worship.

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• Jason

3 hours ago

I'm good. They are not going to try that in a small town.

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• J

3 hours ago

A day of extra mags/clips/speed loaders.

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• John

3 hours ago

I see the pro Palestinian protests in Manhattan and it hurts my heart that the people of ny allow it to go on. The mentality to attacked Israel is the same mentality that was behind 9/11, after all they had their reasons to right? The people of ny are basically allowing an Al queda pep rally in the...

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• IJ

3 hours ago

If I see any "day of rage" I will rage back. No tolerance for this in our free country. If the libs want to talk about hate speech then they better be addressing this hate speech that is threatening lives.

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• Ana

3 hours ago

I wouldn't get on a plane in the U.S. anytime soon, that's for sure

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• Greg

3 hours ago

Wow, the FBI is going to do something? I thought they were too busy investigating suburban mom's as domestic terrorists? They better be careful - investigating someone who isn't a white Christian will be bad for their social media presence.

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• superstar

3 hours ago

Lock anyone up who causes problems. No exceptions.

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• James

3 hours ago

Eventually they'll be enough here to take over if Biden doesn't close our borders.

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• Jim

3 hours ago

Could have been worse if Hillary Clinton won in 2016. A lot of people forgot that she stated the United States should accept 65,000 refugees from Syria (as a start).

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• David

3 hours ago

"Go ahead, make my day".

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• Terry Jirovsky

3 hours ago

10 million poured into our country (open border) since Biden. This is scary. Be aware......everyday.

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• rk

3 hours ago

Day of Rage--wow don't need any more proof that they are legit terrorists.

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• Tommy John

2 hours ago

America has been experiencing a border invasion for 45 years, not 1 politician can be bothered to do anything about it. But we're supposed to be in perpetual outrage over other countries having border incursions? Yeah, don't think so.

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• Grumpy

3 hours ago

I'm locked and loaded. I would suggest raging somewhere else..

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• Thomas

4 hours ago

I would suggest that it is the Palestinians in the US who need to stay inside today.

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• Red October

2 hours ago

Having a “day of rage” will really help endear the world to their cause….. murder for peace…. Great idea…..

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• Tod

4 hours ago

Trump was correct: We needed to more vet Muslims before permitting them to immigrate to the U.S. Many bring their Na-- - Islamofascist mentalities with them. They are a physical threat

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o Timothy

4 hours ago

Henry Kissinger agrees. Although he was talking about Germany, the same logic applies to the US.

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• Zane

3 hours ago

Rage, what a joke, they haven't even begun to see rage yet after what they did, but they will, wipe hamas off the map

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• Jose LN

3 hours ago

Hamas is a terrorist organization that MUST be eradicated.

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• michael

3 hours ago

I remember not long ago Biden said maga extremists are the biggest threat to America. Guess that was a lefty lie

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• Reality Check

2 hours ago

And when the thousands of military age males that the current administration has welcomed to enter the nation illegally hatch their plans, will YOU be ready? Or will YOU be one of the sheep led to slaughter?

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• Janet

2 hours ago

Day of Rage, huh? It sounds like a veiled threat. People should arm themselves to stay safe.

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• CancelMoi?

2 hours ago

Creepy uncle Joe and his supporters have been a National Security Risk for nearly 3 full years and it’s only by God’s Grace we haven’t suffered a terrorist attack; yet.

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ATTACHMENT NINETEEN – From the Guardian U.K.

Egypt warned Israel of Hamas attack days earlier, senior US politician says

Head of US foreign affairs committee says warning was given, but it is unclear ‘at what level’, supporting claims reported from Egyptian sources

By Dan Sabbagh and agencies Thu 12 Oct 2023 09.24 EDT

A senior US politician said Israel had received an official warning from Egypt of a possible attack from Gaza three days before Hamas launched its deadly cross-border assault on Saturday.

Michael McCaul, the chair of the US House foreign affairs committee, speaking after an intelligence briefing to senior members of Congress, said it was not clear at what level the warning was given.

“We know that Egypt has warned the Israelis three days prior that an event like this could happen,” McCaul, a Republican, told reporters on Wednesday. “I don’t want to get too much into classified [details], but a warning was given. I think the question was at what level.”

Israel was caught off-guard by Saturday’s surprise attack, when more than 1,500 Hamas fighters breached the Gaza border fence in a number of locations, killing over 1,200 Israeli civilians at a music festival, kibbutzim and other sites near the border. It took several hours before Israel’s military was able to respond on the ground.

Earlier this week, the country’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, denied Israel had received any advance warning from Cairo, when reports first emerged that an alert had been passed on from the country’s intelligence services.

Netanyahu said such claims were “fake news” in an address to the Israeli people on Monday. Earlier that day his office said “no early message came from Egypt” and denied that the prime minister had recently met with the head of Egyptian intelligence to discuss any such warning.

That had followed the first reports of a warning from Egypt. An Egyptian official told the Associated Press that Egypt, which often serves as a mediator between Israel and Hamas, had spoken repeatedly with the Israelis about “something big”.

The unnamed official claimed Israeli officials were focused on the West Bank and had played down the threat from Gaza. “We have warned them an explosion of the situation is coming, and very soon, and it would be big. But they underestimated such warnings,” said the official, who spoke on condition of anonymity.

Cairo has not commented officially on suggestions that it may have offered an early warning to Israel. However, Egyptian media with close ties to intelligence services on Wednesday quoted senior security sources denying Israeli press reports that such a warning was issued.

Despite the denials, McCaul appeared confident that some sort of warning was passed on, and indicated he had been told that attack planning may have been going on for as long as year – without Israel or its allies noticing.

“We’re not quite sure how we missed it. We’re not quite sure how Israel missed it,” he told reporters, acknowledging that US and western intelligence had also failed to foresee an attack that has been described as the deadliest day for Jews since the Holocaust.

Sir Alex Younger, a former head of MI6, said Hamas was likely to have been able to achieve surprise by “the complete abandonment of any electronic device or signature”, thereby evading electronic surveillance or signals intelligence.

Speaking on BBC Radio 4’s The Today podcast, Younger said he believed one issue was a structural problem, Israel’s “overreliance on a set of technology systems” to defend itself, including sensors to detect hostile activity near its border with Gaza. “Technology is good at revealing capabilities and actions, it’s not good at revealing intentions,” he said.

But the former spy chief, who stepped down in 2020, said Israel’s failure to pre-empt the attack also stemmed from a wider “failure of imagination” – and drew a parallel with the misjudgment in the run-up to the 9/11 attacks.

“9/11 classically was that. The assumption was not that we were vulnerable to anything in terms of this type of attack. The assumption was that it essentially wasn’t possible,” Younger said.

“And it is my assumption, therefore … that there will have been data breaking through which probably could have been interpreted differently and certainly would be, with hindsight, but people were just not looking at it in that way.”

That thinking was reflected in the fact that, Younger said, Israel had deployed at least 70% of its military in the West Bank, “including units territorially dedicated to Gaza”. There was “a conscious decision” to switch significant force away from the south, he said.

Israeli retaliatory strikes on Gaza have killed 1,100 Palestinians, including 326 children, with 5,339 people injured. More than 260,000 people have fled their homes in the Gaza Strip as heavy Israeli bombardments from the air, land and sea continued, the UN said.

The former British spy chief also warned that Hamas was “essentially laying a trap for Israel and would be well pleased if Israel commits itself to a full-scale ground invasion of Gaza” – because of the intensity of fighting and the inevitable loss of civilian life that would follow. “You cannot kill all the terrorists without creating more terrorists,” he said.

With Agence-France Presse and Associated Press

ATTACHMENT TWENTY – From the WASHINGTON POST

U.S. intel deemed wider conflict between Israel, Hezbollah ‘unlikely’

Top secret intelligence document from February said longtime enemies had settled into posture of ‘mutual deterrence’

By Shane Harris and Sarah Dadouch October 12, 2023 at 7:14 p.m. EDT

On Wednesday, at around 6:30 p.m. local time, air sirens sent millions of people racing into shelters across northern Israel. The country’s Home Front Command had detected dozens of unknown aircraft, presumably drones, coming across the border and infiltrating Israeli towns. It turned out to be a false alarm, the result of what an Israeli military spokesman called “human error,” but panicked civilians probably feared that Hezbollah, Israel’s longtime enemy in neighboring Lebanon, had just opened a second front in the war.

Sign up for Fact Checker, our weekly review of what's true, false or in-between in politics.

According to a top secret U.S. intelligence document, however, a massive attack by Hezbollah, the political party and militant group backed by Iran, would be unlikely. As of early this year, U.S. intelligence analysts saw a predictable if still violent balance between Israel and Hezbollah diminishing the risk of a full-scale war in 2023.

Those assumptions are being tested in the wake of last week’s attack by Hamas, in Israel’s south, which took Israeli and U.S. officials almost completely by surprise.

According to an analysis prepared in February by the intelligence directorate for the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Israel and Hezbollah had settled into a posture of “mutual deterrence” since the conclusion of a historic agreement, in October 2022, in which Lebanon and Israel agreed to demarcate their contested maritime borders. The deal, 11 years in the making, signified a breakthrough and allowed each country to finally explore the lucrative gas fields off their coasts.

Israel and Hezbollah had taken steps to “maintain readiness” to use force, but had remained “within their historical patterns of engagement,” which meant avoiding casualties and responding to provocations in a proportional way, according to the U.S. briefing document, which The Washington Post obtained exclusively after it was shared on the chat platform Discord.

Discord member details how documents leaked from closed chat group

Hezbollah is Lebanon’s strongest armed group and political party. Along with its allies, it held the majority in parliament until elections in 2022 when it fell short a few seats. The coalition still maintained the largest number of seats in parliament.

As Lebanon falls deeper into an economic crisis, and in the absence of state institutions and benefits, Hezbollah has attempted to buttress its position as an alternative patron for much of the country’s historically marginalized Shiite community.

“Even during periods of heightened tensions,” Israel and Hezbollah had intended “to display strength while avoiding escalation,” according to the U.S. analysis. For example, the document explains, Israel might carry out sabotage operations in Lebanon or fire on empty land, while Hezbollah shoots down an Israeli drone or fires rockets into the northern part of the country. The actions are provocative, but they are designed to avoid casualties. Each side can demonstrate to the other that they’re on guard and capable of striking without igniting a wider outbreak of hostilities.

But the analysis points to other factors that could tip that balance, including Hezbollah’s “inability to restrain Palestinian militants” such as Hamas that also operate in Lebanon.

In April, 34 rockets were launched from southern Lebanon into Israel, an attack that the Israeli military said was carried out by Hamas operatives, whose leaders had met with the Hezbollah secretary general, Hassan Nasrallah, a day earlier in Lebanon. For months, the U.S. analysis noted, “Israel perceived a high risk of miscalculation due to Lebanon-based HAMAS plots.” Essentially, while Hezbollah might not be courting a war with Israel, that outcome was not entirely within its control, the U.S. intelligence suggested.

An anti-Israeli stance lies at the heart of Hamas and Hezbollah’s identity. Hamas, a Sunni Palestinian group, and Hezbollah, a Shiite Lebanese group, have been at odds over the civil war in neighboring Syria, with Hezbollah propping up President Bashar al-Assad and Hamas supporting his ouster.

Timeline of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict

Senior leaders from the two organizations have met in the past few years in Lebanon — and as recently as April — to discuss the normalization deals taking place in the Middle East with Israel.

The State Department estimates that Hezbollah claims tens of thousands of members and supporters worldwide and receives hundreds of millions of dollars in annual support from Iran. Experts have described Hezbollah as the world’s most heavily armed non-state actor. According to public Israeli sources, Hezbollah has expanded its arsenal of rockets and missiles from around 15,000 in 2006 to 130,000 in 2021. Nasrallah has claimed the group commands 100,000 fighters.

“I think a lot of people made assumptions about how deterred Hamas and Hezbollah are,” said Matthew Levitt, a fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. While he broadly agreed with the U.S. intelligence assessment, Levitt said that Hezbollah was now more likely to take advantage of the war in the south, which has consumed much of the Israeli military’s attention.

“I do see [Hezbollah] gradually trying to change the rules of the game,” Levitt said. Both sides have exchanged artillery and rocket fire since the Hamas attack Saturday. Israel has deployed reservist troops to towns along the border with Lebanon.

“I expect that you’ll see small things happening along the [northern] border from time to time, as [Hezbollah] tries to remind that they are here,” Levitt said.

Hezbollah leaders’ rhetoric has already begun to shift. In the first speech by a Hezbollah official after the Hamas attack, Hashem Safieddine declared the group is “not neutral in this battle.” Hezbollah’s fighters “had given their salute to Gaza in Shebaa Farms in their own, special way,” he said, referencing the strikes Hezbollah launched into a contested region on the border between the two countries on Sunday.

But the group’s remarks that followed exhibited restraint. In a statement addressing the U.S. intervention, it called for displays of solidarity and protests, while emphasizing that the resistance is ready for confrontation.

In comparison, other anti-Israel armed groups in the area, such as Yemen’s Houthis and Iraq’s Kataib Hezbollah, threatened attack in response to U.S. military aid to Israel.

But, as the U.S. intelligence analysis warned, such provocations carry their own risks of escalation, especially if Hezbollah conducts what it intends to be limited strikes that end up killing Israeli forces or civilians.

“The potential for miscalculation is exceptionally high,” Levitt said.

Dadouch reported from Beirut. Shira Rubin in Tel Aviv contributed to this report.

ATTACHMENT TWENTY ONE – From Time

Biden Faces Hard Choices on American Hostages in Gaza

BY BRIAN BENNETT OCTOBER 10, 2023 7:03 PM EDT

President Biden is faced with the thorny reality that American citizens are among the hostages Hamas terrorists kidnapped and took into Gaza over the weekend, but the U.S. government doesn’t know exactly how many of its citizens are in that situation or where they are.

"We now know that American citizens are among those being held by Hamas," Biden told reporters in the White House State Dining Room on Tuesday. He said the U.S. military would be helping Israeli forces in the planning and intelligence collection for efforts to rescue hostages and that he had “no higher priority” as President than the safety of Americans held hostage around the world.

Speaking forcefully in front of a portrait of Abraham Lincoln, Biden called Hamas’s rampage through towns and farms in southern Israel and the slaughter of more than 1,000 Israelis “pure, unadulterated evil” and confirmed that those killed include 14 Americans. “At this moment, we must be crystal clear,” Biden said. “We stand with Israel."

Beyond confirming that some of the hostages are US citizens, White House officials had few other details about them or what options for their rescue are available to Biden.

“We do not know about their condition and we cannot confirm a precise number of American hostages,” National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan told reporters at the White House. More than 20 American citizens who were in Israel are missing, Sullivan said, but it is unclear how many among those are being held captive by Hamas.

The lack of clarity was especially upsetting for some of the family members of American citizens caught up in the crisis. Nahar Neta doesn't know whether his 66-year-old mother, Adrienne Neta, is still alive after she was kidnapped on Saturday by Hamas from her home on Kibbutz Be’eri. “It is a little bit ridiculous at this stage to say that the optimistic scenario is that she is held hostage in Gaza and not dead on the street of the kibbutz where we grew up,” he said during an event in Jerusalem where family members of kidnapped Americans called on Biden to take action to bring their loved ones home.

Nahar described how Adrienne was on the phone with him and her daughter during the assault when they heard her scream. Neta said that his mom, who had worked as a nurse and midwife, spoke in Arabic to try to calm down the attackers.

If the U.S. is able to locate any of the Americans being held by Hamas, a U.S. rescue mission would be incredibly complex and dangerous for U.S. military personnel and any civilians on the ground in the densely populated Gaza Strip, which is currently under regular barrage by Israeli missiles. Also, the kidnappers may be holding U.S. citizens alongside Israeli captives, leaving open the question of which country would lead such an operation.

Hamas is believed to have more than 100 hostages in Gaza, including children and the elderly, making the Israeli offensive into Gaza that much more challenging and complex, says Uzi Arad, who served as national security advisor to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu from 2009 to 2011. "This is a complicating factor to an incredible degree, because the hostages may be now used as a card in the management of the war,” says Arad, who was part of the 1976 Israeli commando raid to rescue hostages at the Entebbe International Airport in Uganda. Arad praised Biden’s statement of support for Israel on Tuesday. “The effect this has on Israeli morale and attitude is galvanizing," he says.

Biden ordered U.S. military aircraft to Israel loaded with additional weapons, equipment and supplies, and a U.S. carrier strike group armed with guided missiles is loitering in the Eastern Mediterranean to deter other Iran-backed militants based in Syria and Lebanon from taking advantage of the moment to step up their own attacks.

The U.S. Navy strike group, led by the USS Gerald R. Ford—the newest, most sophisticated carrier in the U.S. fleet—is manned by more than 5,000 sailors and Marines and places additional US special operations forces, intelligence collection equipment, and attack planes closer to Gaza. Those could be used in potential hostage rescue operations, if the U.S. can learn more about their fate.

The families of the missing Americans who spoke to reporters in Jerusalem on Tuesday were frustrated that they hadn’t been told anything by the US State Department or Israeli government about what may have happened to their loved ones. Neta wanted to hear what US and Israelis officials know about his mother at this point. “I think that after three days—more than three days now—it is more than a reasonable request to have somebody from the Israeli government or the U.S. administration approach us with any type of information they may have on our family members,” Neta said.

ATTACHMENT TWENTY TWO – From GUK

US opinion divided amid battle for narrative over Hamas attack on Israel

By Chris McGrealin New York

Groups express opposing views over root cause of the attack, alongside differences over whether Gaza is still occupied

Tue 10 Oct 2023 07.00 EDT

The grim weekend attack by Hamas produced an unusual degree of unity on both sides of the Israeli-Palestinian divide in the US, with widespread revulsion at the scale of the killings, the horrific video of bodies paraded through Gaza, and the abduction of civilians by the Palestinian armed group including the very young and elderly.

But opinion in the US quickly divided as the broader battle for narrative took hold, particularly over the cause of the attack, alongside differences over whether Gaza is still occupied, as the Palestinian death toll, including entire families, rose sharply under Israel’s retaliatory bombardment.

The White House described the Hamas assault as “unprovoked”, a line widely adopted by some pro-Israel groups seeking to portray the attack as driven solely by hatred of Jews as Jews and the group as a Palestinian version of Islamic State.

The California-based pro-Israel group, StandWithUs, likened the Hamas assault to al-Qaida’s on the US in 2001.

“For Israelis, this is like 9/11,” it said. “The goal of Hamas is not to oppose any specific Israeli policy or action. Hamas is an internationally recognized terrorist group driven by genocidal racism against Jews.”

But the Biden administration’s position came under swift challenge, including from Yousef Munayyer, the former executive director of the US Campaign for Palestinian Rights.

“To call this ‘unprovoked’, as the initial [White House] statement did, is to ignore the daily and constant Israeli violence and war crimes against Palestinians, which has only escalated in recent years. It is language that erases Palestinians and enables continued violence against them,” he wrote.

The Jewish American group, IfNotNow, said its supporters “watch the unfolding horrors with heartbreak and dread for our loved ones” but it, too, objected to the description of the attack as unprovoked.

“We absolutely condemn the killing of innocent civilians and mourn the loss of Palestinian and Israeli life, with numbers rising by the minute. Their blood is on the hands of the Israeli government, the US government which funds and excuses their recklessness, and every international leader who continues to turn a blind eye to decades of Palestinian oppression, endangering Palestinians and Israelis,” it said.

“Anyone who minimizes or ignores this context will only continue to be surprised as more blood is shed.”

While the Israeli government’s supporters sought to absolve it of responsibility for raising tensions, its critics have for months warned that a mix of settlement expansion, creeping annexation of the West Bank and unrestrained settler attacks on Palestinian civilians, including the ethnic cleansing of villages, was pushing the occupied territories toward an increase in violence and even a third intifada.

Israel-Hamas war live: Gaza’s only power stationruns out of fuel; Israel forms emergency unity government

The push to separate the Hamas assault from the context of events in the West Bank is partly rooted in Israel’s claim that Gaza is no longer occupied after the pullout of Jewish settlers and the army in 2005. That is a claim echoed on both sides of the Atlantic including by the senior Labour party politician in the UK, Rachel Reeves, who told the BBC: “Gaza is not occupied by Israel.”

The United Nations says otherwise, because of Israeli controls over Gaza’s borders, airspace and waters. The extent of that control was made clear with the Israeli defense minister Yoav Gallant’s announcement of a “complete siege” of the territory, shutting off power, food and water to fight “human animals”.

The push to claim that Gaza is no longer occupied and therefore has no justification for confrontation with Israel is also part of an attempt to divide and rule by treating the fenced-in enclave as separate from the rest of the Palestinian occupied territories in the West Bank and East Jerusalem.

US politicians who pushed for a wider perspective on the causes of violence were careful to frame their words in the context of the huge suffering caused by the Hamas attack.

Congresswoman Ilhan Omar, who has previously faced accusations of antisemitism over her criticism of pro-Israel lobby groups, said she condemned “the horrific acts” against Israelis, “who are being slaughtered and taken hostage by Hamas”. But she warned that the cycle will continue without “peace and justice” in the Middle East.

Congresswoman Cori Bush echoed the sentiment when she said she was “heartbroken by the ongoing violence in Palestine and Israel” and that she mourned the lives lost on both sides. But she said the US is part of the problem.

“As part of achieving a just and lasting peace, we must do our part to stop this violence and trauma by ending US government support for Israeli military occupation and apartheid,” she wrote.

Others were less nuanced.

A group of organisations at Harvard University faced accusations of dehumanising Israeli victims with a statement that did not criticise Hamas and that said the Israeli government is “entirely responsible for all unfolding violence”.

“The apartheid regime is the only one to blame. Israeli violence has structured every aspect of Palestinian existence for 75 years. From systematized land seizures to routine airstrikes, arbitrary detentions to military checkpoints, and enforced family separations to targeted killings, Palestinians have been forced to live in a state of death, both slow and sudden,” it said.

Lawrence Summers, Harvard’s president emeritus, who served in the Clinton and Obama administrations, said he was “sickened” by the university leadership’s failure to criticise the students and take a stand in support of Israel when it did so for Ukraine.

“The silence from Harvard’s leadership, so far, coupled with a vocal and widely reported student groups’ statement blaming Israel solely, has allowed Harvard to appear at best neutral towards acts of terror against the Jewish state of Israel,” he said.

The divisions also spilled on to the streets of New York on Sunday, as the Democratic Socialists of America held a rally in Times Square, where several hundred supporters of the Palestinian cause chanted: “Resistance is justified when people are occupied.”

New York’s governor, Kathy Hochul, called the rally “abhorrent and morally repugnant”.

The attack also inevitably revived demands for news organisations to follow the White House lead and call Hamas terrorists, not only because of the nature of the killings but because the US, EU and UK governments have banned the group.

Kenneth Roth, the former head of the New York-based Human Rights Watch, criticised the White House stance.

“It is not helpful to use the term ‘terrorism’ in a war when the White House only ever applies it to one side. Better to remind both Hamas and the Israeli government that humanitarian law makes it a war crime to target or indiscriminately fire on civilians,” he said.

Roth said that “Hamas already committed war crimes by seizing civilians as hostages” and warned it against compounding its crimes by “mistreating the hostages or by using them as human shields”.

But he also criticised supporters of the Israeli government who refuse to be held to the same standards of international law.

“It cheapens the concept of antisemitism – a real global curse – for defenders of the Israeli government to pretend that it is somehow antisemitic to hold Israel to the same standards of international humanitarian law as we use to assess Hamas’s conduct. A war crime is a war crime,” he said.

ATTACHMENT TWENTY THREE –From Politico

New York governor condemns pro-Palestinian rally

Gov. Kathy Hochul called the rally “abhorrent and morally repugnant” in a statement.

By KELLY GARRITY 10/08/2023 09:10 AM EDT

New York Gov. Kathy Hochul condemned a rally in support of Palestinians set to take place Sunday in the wake of the Hamas-led attack in Israel over the weekend, calling the event “abhorrent and morally repugnant,” in a statement Saturday night.

“The people of Israel are facing violent terrorist attacks and civilian kidnappings. I condemn plans to rally in Times Square tomorrow in support of the perpetrators of these horrific actions. The planned rally is abhorrent and morally repugnant,” Hochul wrote in a post on X, formerly Twitter, late Saturday night.

The rally, which was planned for 1 p.m. in Times Square Sunday, was backed by the New York City chapter of Democratic Socialists.

“In solidarity with the Palestinian people and their right to resist 75 years of occupation and apartheid,” the group wrote in a post on X promoting the event.

The event comes as the death toll in Israel from the initial Hamas attack continues to rise. As of Sunday morning, Israeli media was reporting that 600 Israelis had been killed during Hamas’ wide-ranging incursion, according to the Associated Press; hundreds of Palestinians were reported to be killed as well.

ATTACHMENT TWENTY FOUR –From Foreign Policy

How Congressional Chaos Hampers U.S. Aid to Israel, Ukraine

Republican infighting continues as emergency crisis response funding is put on ice.

By Robbie Gramer OCTOBER 16, 2023, 3:44 PM

When a team of three top Biden administration national security officials gave a private briefing to the House of Representatives on Oct. 11, they proposed working with Congress on emergency funding to tackle multiple foreign-policy crises at once: the Israel-Hamas war, the war in Ukraine, support for Taiwan, and the U.S. southern border.

In the past, such a proposal wouldn’t elicit much controversy. Even in the hyper-partisan House, support for Israel is virtually unanimous, while nearly all Democrats and most Republicans broadly agree on funding to back Ukraine and counter Russia and China. But when the administration officials brought up the idea of a joint supplemental funding package in the briefing, a group of Republicans responded by jeering them with a chorus of boos.

The exchange, described to Foreign Policy by one lawmaker in attendance and three congressional aides briefed on the matter, offers a glimpse into how the chaos in the Republican-controlled House is morphing from a domestic political circus into a massive foreign-policy headache for the Biden administration. How that chaos plays out could have major implications for the scale and timing of U.S. security assistance to Israel as well as the continued flow of U.S. military aid to Ukraine, seen as critical in its war against Russia.

National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby warned last week that Washington is “running out of runway” to send security assistance to Israel and Ukraine without additional funding from Congress—all stymied by the glaring absence of a House speaker amid unprecedented infighting among House Republicans. The Republicans are inching closer to naming Ohio Rep. Jim Jordan, a staunch supporter of former President Donald Trump and skeptic of U.S. support for Ukraine, to be speaker, but he still faces an uphill battle to scrape together enough votes from the Republican caucus to get the job.

“The sooner that there’s a speaker of the House, obviously, the more comfortable we’ll all be in terms of being able to support Israel and Ukraine right now,” Kirby said. “Because of existing appropriations and existing authorities, we’ve been OK. But that’s not going to last forever.”

The House has been mired in dysfunction ever since a fringe group of Republicans ousted former Speaker Kevin McCarthy from his job two weeks ago, with no succession plan in mind. Republicans are in the midst of a mini-civil war politically over how to climb out of the mess.

The first question is: Who will the next House speaker be? Under current rules, the House is extremely limited in what it can do without a confirmed speaker. At this point, the House can’t even pass a resolution voicing support for Israel after the Hamas terrorist attacks that has support from more than 400 of its 433 members, let alone pass complex security assistance funding packages. (There are currently two vacancies in the House.)

While nearly all Republicans and Democrats will back funding for new security assistance packages to Israel, Ukraine is more complicated. A coterie of the GOP House opposes further aid to Ukraine, with some arguing the United States has given the eastern European country enough, and with at least one, Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, parroting Russian talking points on the origins of the conflict. If Ukraine becomes more politicized on the right, more members could follow suit and begin opposing—or, at the very least, not proactively supporting—Ukraine aid. Those dynamics matter when the Republicans have a razor-thin majority in the House.

Jordan, a longtime budget hawk who has championed Trump’s falsehoods about the results of the 2020 election, has emerged as the only front-runner who may actually net enough votes to be speaker. Jordan still has to sway dozens of Republicans to his cause, including foreign-policy hawks and centrists who are skeptical of his leadership credentials. Since the Democrats will not vote for him, Jordan needs to convince 217 of the 221 Republicans in the House to back him to be elected, leaving little margin for any dissent.

The second question is whether defense hawks can use the House speakership race to their advantage to clinch gains for national security funding, including on Ukraine.

Jordan notched some significant wins on Monday when two prominent Ukraine supporters endorsed him. Rep. Mike Rogers, chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, and Rep. Ken Calvert, who leads the powerful defense subcommittee on appropriations, both threw their weight behind Jordan. Those endorsements may signal that Jordan is willing to make deals on keeping U.S. military aid to Ukraine flowing, though neither Rogers nor Calvert explicitly said so in their statements.

Nearly all Republicans endorse boosting funding for Israel, which has outsized significance in American politics, and for Taiwan, to counter China. Nearly all Republicans also want to pressure the Biden administration to spend more on border security. The hitch is Ukraine, where a sliver of the slim Republican majority can derail funding. Democrats, as well as some centrist Republicans, figure that linking all the funding together would make it all but impossible to block more money for Ukraine. Not all Republicans, including Ukraine supporters like Nebraska Rep. Don Bacon, are sold on that plan, however.

The next big question is what those aid packages will contain. The Senate, fed up with the chaos in the House, is rushing to draft its own supplemental aid package for Israel and potentially Ukraine without waiting for the dust to settle in the House. Any final bill would ultimately have to pass both the House and Senate. The Senate Foreign Relations Committee separately has scheduled confirmation hearings this week for President Joe Biden’s picks to be ambassador to Israel, Jack Lew, and ambassador to Egypt, Herro Mustafa Garg, as the crisis highlighted the growing backlog of national security nominees in limbo.

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer traveled to Israel over the weekend and said he discussed what a U.S. aid package to Israel would entail. Among the Israeli wish list that Schumer outlined is replenishing stocks for Israel’s Iron Dome missile defense system, precision-guided bombs, and 155 mm mortar shells.

So far, the White House and Senate leadership have been quiet on what Ukraine might get. However, several Western defense officials familiar with the inner workings of U.S. military aid to Ukraine say a supplemental would likely include funding to replenish U.S. weapons stockpiles as older weapons and artillery munitions are transferred to Ukraine, as well as training, upkeep, and maintenance for Ukrainians using and being trained on advanced U.S. weapons systems such as long-range artillery systems and M1 Abrams tanks.

Past supplementals for Ukraine have also funded salaries—to the tune of hundreds of millions of dollars—for U.S. service members deployed in Europe to train Ukrainians and conduct more military exercises with NATO allies in a bid to deter Russia from expanding the war.

The political battles in Washington constitute an existential issue for Ukraine, according to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. During a visit to Washington in September, Schumer recounted to reporters how Zelensky summed up his dilemma to U.S. lawmakers: “Mr. Zelensky said, ‘If we don’t get the aid, we will lose the war,’” Schumer said.

House Democrats, meanwhile—stuck on the sidelines while they wait for Republicans to elect their own replacement speaker—have made their frustrations clear.

“We have a war in Europe, a war in the Middle East, challenges around the world, tensions in the Indo-Pacific, and the United States is unable to elect a speaker of the House,” Democratic Rep. Andy Kim told Foreign Policy in an interview. “What kind of signal does that send to our adversaries and our competitors?”

ATTACHMENT TWENTY FIVE –From US News & World Report

America’s Short-Lived Show of Unity

In decades past, Israel was a unifying issue in Congress and among much of the electorate. Now, it's another vehicle for feuding politicians and competing ideological groups to fight anew.

By Susan Milligan Senior Politics WriterOct. 13, 2023, at 7:44 a.m.

The brutal attack on Israel that began last week shocked Americans, who were consumed with grief for those slaughtered by Hamas and fearful for those hiding in their homes or held hostage by the militant group.

For about a day, anyway.

Then America's deep political divisions surfaced with a vengeance, with politicians blaming political foes for the crisis, and others turning the terrorist attack into a judgment of Israel, its government, Jews in general and the plight of the Palestinian people.

With President Joe Biden facing the third major foreign policy crisis of his presidency after a disastrous Afghanistan withdrawal and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine – and the 2024 election campaign already in full swing – political foes were quick to blame him for the obviously coordinated surprise air, land and sea attack.

Meanwhile, activists across the country clashed over Israel's treatment of Palestinians, trading accusations of antisemitism, anti-Muslim sentiments and a disregard for human life. Hedge fund billionaire Bill Ackman called on CEOs to deny jobs to Harvard students who signed an open letter saying they hold Israel "entirely responsible for all unfolding violence" there.

One law firm – the global firm Winston & Strawn – posted a statement on social media saying it had withdrawn a job offer made to an unidentified former summer associate who had "published certainly inflammatory comments regarding Hamas' recent terrorist attack on Israel.”

The Anti-Defamation League reported a "wide range of anti-Semitic and anti-Israeli conspiracy theories" online soon after the attack, with hateful comments about eradicating Jews or suggesting Israel had somehow engineered the brutality.

One Palestinian member of Congress, Democratic Rep. Rashida Tlaib of Michigan, faces a censure motion for a statement she made grieving the Palestinian and Israeli lives lost – but also calling for an end to the "apartheid" in Israel.

Meanwhile, the attacks resurrected complaints against Republican Rep. Steve Scalise, a Louisianan seeking to be House speaker who spoke to a white supremacist group in 2002. Rep. Summer Lee, Pennsylvania Democrat, called on her GOP colleagues to reject Scalise – who later said he regretted speaking to the group – saying, "Every Republican who votes for his speakership will vote in support of rising antisemitism, white supremacy and Islamophobia."

In decades past, support for Israel was a unifying issue in Congress and among much of the electorate. But now, it's another vehicle for feuding politicians and competing ideological groups to fight anew.

"We used to say that politics ends at the water's edge. Our leaders have lost sight that this comes down to fundamental questions about security, stability and our standing in the world," says Brett Bruen, who was director of global engagement under President Barack Obama and who now teaches crisis communications at Georgetown University.

Then there were the accusations regarding $6 billion in Iranian funds the Biden administration unfroze in September as part of a negotiation for the release of five Americans wrongfully detained by Iran. The money – which is in Qatar – was for humanitarian aid and has not been disbursed at all, White House officials said. Reports emerged Thursday that Qatar and the United States agreed not to release any of the money, answering calls from Congress to thwart any avenue for Iran – which backs Hamas – to finance any terrorist activity.

"We have to really reflect on whether or not scoring some cheap political points by accusing Biden of being soft on … support for Israel or that somehow their effort to release five American hostages from Iran led to the Iranians somehow" enabling or funding the attack, Bruen adds. "If we do continue in this divisive debate, it's only going to benefit Russia, Iran and China."

The attacks on Biden came quickly after the attacks on Israel.

"Biden's weakness invited the attack. Biden's negotiation funded the attack. … At this point, Biden is complicit," Sen. Tim Scott, a South Carolinian seeking the Republican nomination for president, wrote on social media the day after the Hamas assault. His fellow South Carolina Republican and primary foe, former U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. Nikki Haley made a similar complaint about what she called Biden's "ransom deal."

Former President Donald Trump also blamed Biden for the attack, telling a campaign audience in New Hampshire this week that the sitting president's "weakness" led to the assault, along with the transfer of Iranian money between two offshore accounts.

Later, Trump extended his jabs at U.S. ally Israel, saying in a campaign speech that the country's defense minister was "a jerk." Trump also said Hezbollah, another designated terrorist group in Lebanon is "very smart," angering U.S. and Israeli officials alike.

"It's well beyond the pale for me," National Security Council spokesman John Kirby told reporters Thursday. Israeli communications minister Shlomo Karhi said it was "shameful that a man like that, a former U.S. president, abets propaganda and disseminates things that wound the spirit of Israel's fighters and its citizens."

Meanwhile, Democrats and liberals fought among themselves, with pro-Palestinian rallies in cities and campuses around the country drawing criticism from those who saw the actions as dismissive of Israeli victims.

Tlaib – a frequent target of Republicans who have called her antisemitic – issued a statement saying she grieves the deaths of both Israelis and Palestinians in the attack. But she also made a point of addressing the grievances of the Palestinians, noting, "As long as our country provides billions in unconditional funding to support the apartheid government, this heartbreaking cycle of violence will continue."

That led her Michigan colleague, GOP Rep. Jack Bergman, to file a censure resolution against Tlaib on Wednesday.

Some progressives are pushing back at fellow members of the Democratic Socialists of America, who have been holding pro-Palestinian rallies just days after the Hamas attack.

Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, New York Democrat and a member of the organization, denounced the "bigotry and callousness" of the Times Square rally, saying it "did not speak for the thousands of New Yorkers who are capable of rejecting both Hamas’ horrifying attacks against innocent civilians as well as the grave injustices and violence Palestinians face under occupation."

Another ally of the group, Democratic Rep. Shri Thanedar of Michigan, renounced his membership this week, saying the group was "unwilling to call out terrorism in all its forms."

While the language is heated and often hateful, it's still likely Congress will come together to help its longtime Middle Eastern ally, says American University professor Jordan Tama, author of the book "Bipartisanship and U.S. Foreign Policy: Cooperation in a Polarized Age."

"Some are using really over-the-top rhetoric to try to score political points against the Biden administration. But at the same time, on the substance of U.S. policy – in terms of what the United States should be doing – there's not much of a gap" between the two parties, Tama says.

When Congress – now at a standstill since Republicans cannot agree on a speaker – is presented an aid package to help Israel, "There will be broad support" for it, Tama says. That is, of course, "if the House starts operating again," he adds.

ATTACHMENT TWENTY SIX –From the Sarasota Herald-Tribune

Palestinians' desire for separate state should be addressed

Opinion by Ray Gordon Fri, October 13, 2023 at 6:12 AM EDT

The Oct. 10 letter “Palestinian attack shows it's all-or-nothing” could not be further from the truth when it states that Palestinians “want all of Israel.”

In fact, what the Palestinians want and deserve is the end of Israel’s occupation in the West Bank and East Jerusalem, the end of the blockade on the civilian population of Gaza and a separate Palestinian state based on pre-1967 borders with East Jerusalem, its capital.

“Netanyahu bears responsibility for this Israel-Gaza war" was the headline on an editorial in Haaretz, one of Israel's major newspapers.

ATTACHMENT TWENTY SEVEN –From Time

BY MAIRAV ZONSZEIN OCTOBER 11, 2023 4:00 AM EDT

Mairav Zonszein is based in Tel Aviv and is the Senior Israel-Palestine analyst at the International Crisis Group.

Four days after the most catastrophic attack on Israel in its history, the scope of the fatalities and extent of the mental and physical damage have yet to become fully clear. But several things are already apparent. One is that the staggering human toll is almost surely going to rise significantly, as civilians on both sides bear the brunt. The second is that Israel was caught by surprise amid a major intelligence failure, despite all its sophisticated, high-tech resources and capabilities that make it the region’s dominant military power. The third (one that very few Israelis may want to hear at the moment, or even be able to absorb, as they keen for their dead and fear for their hostages) is that Israel's decision to divide and control millions of Palestinians, put them behind walls and fences, deprive them of their rights, and implement what leading human rights organizations have called apartheid is not a tenable approach for the long term security and stability of its Jewish citizens. The pressure cooker so many of us warned would explode has exploded.

Benjamin Netanyahu, the longest serving Israeli Prime Minister, has made sidelining and ignoring Palestinian demands for freedom and dignity his mantra and legacy. He has repeatedly formulated his policies around the idea that Israel can resolve the Arab-Israeli conflict and proceed to normalize relations with Arab countries without engaging with the Palestinians.

Netanyahu may have taken this approach further than any other Israeli leader but he is hardly an outlier. Just two years ago, for example, Naftali Bennett, who briefly served as Prime Minister leading a broad coalition government after Netanyahu was ousted amid a graft probe, stood at the United Nations General Assembly and announced that Israelis don’t wake up in the morning thinking about the “conflict”—not mentioning the Palestinians once. And it was current opposition leader Yair Lapid, while serving as Foreign Minister in that same government, who epitomized Israel’s failing policies by releasing a plan for Gaza based on providing basic economic and humanitarian gestures (such as rebuilding housing and transport infrastructure) in exchange for quiet.

For years now, as the peace process has been moribund and the Palestinian political leadership fragmented between factions and geographical areas and is in shambles, Israel has continued to proceed apace with expanding and entrenching its hold over them. Instead of investing in a strategic vision for solving its conflict with the Palestinians, Israel has invested its strategic energy into consolidating more military might and control.

Over the last 20 years, and more rapidly the last 10 months under the most far-right government in Israeli history, Israel has provoked instability at the Al Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem, detained more and more Palestinians without charge, allowed soldiers and settlers to shoot and rampage through Palestinian areas in the West Bank with impunity, and waged several devastating and ineffective military assaults in Gaza—all without any enduring international consequences. Instead it has gained diplomatic traction, signing normalization deals with four Arab countries, and was most recently admitted into the coveted U.S. visa waiver program.

Even before Hamas’s surprise attack, 2023 was already the deadliest year for both Israelis and Palestinians in over 20 years. It has also been a record-breaking year for approval of settlements and incidents of settler violence against Palestinians in the West Bank.

Read More: A Palestinian Story from Behind the Wall

Israel does not face any good or easy options right now. Exerting its military might in Gaza is not expected to bring a different outcome than every other time it has done so in the last two decades. Some Israelis, shaken by trauma and helplessness, have called on their government to recognize the common humanity of those on the other side of Gaza’s security walls. As one mother whose children were taken to Gaza said on live TV, pleading with Israeli and Palestinian leaders to leave the children out of this game, Israel’s military operations are only endangering their lives further.

If there is any hope at this awful moment, it is that the carnage and despair will at some point prompt all of the parties—both Israel and its Western backers, as well as Hamas (a group the U.S. classifies as a terror organization that also operates as a political party)—to get serious about resolving this decades-old conflict. That would take mutual concessions that no one is prepared to consider right now. The great fear is that these concessions will only happen at a point when the horrors of war grow even further and the limited effectiveness of constant force becomes more apparent. For all of our sakes, I hope we come to our senses sooner.

ATTACHMENT TWENTY EIGHT – From the Center for Strategic and International Studies

THE WAR IN GAZA AND THE DEATH OF THE TWO-STATE SOLUTION

Commentary by Anthony H. Cordesman Published October 11, 2023

The outcome of the war in Gaza is already clear. Israel is so strong relative to Hamas that it can both defeat Hamas and establish almost any new security structure in Gaza that Israel wants. It does face limited threat from attacks by Palestinians in Israel and in the West Bank, but they are unlikely to rise above sporadic incidents of violence. In practice, Israel will be able to create almost any security structure in Gaza that it wants to limit Palestinian action in Israel and the West Bank to demonstrations and small acts of violence or terrorism.

As for the rest of the Arab world, Israel does not seem to face any major direct military threat from its Arab neighbors. Lebanon is in chaos. Hezbollah can raise the ante in terms of missile attacks and cross-border infiltration but is vulnerable to far superior Israel air and missile attacks. Egypt is strong in military terms but is no longer organized and prepared to fight Israel and is caught up in its own economic crisis and political problems. Jordan now has only limited military forces, is not organized to fight Israel, and has its own internal economic and political challenges. Syria’s Assad regime and its military forces are still caught up in its own civil war, and an unstable Iraq lacks the capability to project meaningful forces into the Levant.

The Arab Gulf states are not a meaningful military threat. In an odd way, Iran may actually add to Israel’s regional security. Iran can threaten and provoke Israel and provide money and limited arms supplies to Palestinian fighters. It might carry out limited raids against some Israeli targets. But Iran cannot project meaningful military power other than long-range missile strikes to challenge Israel and faces the threat of far higher levels of Israel retaliation.

More importantly, and despite some recent diplomatic contacts, Iran does present a serious military, political, and sectarian threat to the Arab Gulf states. This threat forces them to focus on Iran and limit any support of Hamas and the Palestinians. The Arab Gulf states may provide some aid money and political support, but they will continue to focus on Iran and not take any serious military action or risk a major political confrontation with Israel or split with the United States.

Four Enclaves Instead of Two States

As Hamas’s invasion demonstrates, Israel’s most serious current threat is internal and to some extent self-inflicted. It is driven by Israel’s failure to offer Palestinians either real statehood or security and equal economic and political opportunity. Instead of statehood, Palestinians are divided into four Israeli-controlled enclaves, each with different causes of tension between Israel and the Palestinians and somewhat different pressures on its resident Palestinians.

• The first such enclave that makes up the “no-state” solution is the greater Jerusalem area, with tensions and conflicts over control of its older central core, its holy places, housing and business restrictions on Palestinians in East Jerusalem, a steadily larger Israeli majority and control over greater Jerusalem, and exceptional security limits.

• The second enclave is the rest of Israel, with somewhat different regulations on Palestinian rights, citizenship, and movements, and tight surveillance and security.

• The third is the West Bank, with the hollow shell of a Palestinian government, de facto Israeli security control over Palestinian security forces, tight control over Palestinian movements and access to the rest of Israel, and a steadily growing presence by Israeli “settlers” that is rising sharply with the support of the Netanyahu government.

• The fourth enclave is Gaza, which presents by far the worst set of pressures on Palestinians. It has some 2.1 million Palestinians and no Israeli Jews and is only twice the size of the greater Washington D.C. area. It has no major industry or exports. It depends on Israel for most of its potable water and electric power. Its small garden crop areas are part of the Israeli security zone. It has close to 50 percent unemployment and 50 percent direct dependence on foreign aid, with another 20 percent receiving some aid. It has one of the youngest populations and the highest number of children and young adults of any region or country in the world. It is separated from the rest of Israel by a wall and has no meaningful airports or free access to the Mediterranean. It potentially is dependent on jobs in Israel, but Israel’s security regulations have sharply limited such opportunities and seem to have increased them over the last years while maintaining tight control over any movements outside Gaza or return to Gaza.

The Crisis in Gaza before the October 2023 Fighting Began

Estimates differ as to the impact of the history of wars, violence, tensions, and reprisals that have affected Gaza and Palestinians between the Israeli withdrawal of all Israelis from some 21 settlements in Gaza by September 2005 and the situation at the time Hamas attacked Israel. However, virtually all sources agree that Gaza’s population has saturated a small enclave dependent on Israel for potable water, electricity, outside jobs, and food imports.

Several reputable sources may disagree in some details but also warn just how critical the situation was when Hamas attacked and how serious further Israeli cuts to Gazans’ ability to leave and return to Gaza and cut to the flow of foreign aid, trade, Gazan exports, and food imports, and Israeli supply of electricity and potable water to Gaza can be. They also warn just how much more drastic the effects of the major offensive Israel launched against Gaza on October 11, 2023, could be, particularly if it escalates to major Israel attack and occupation.

The U.S. Census Bureau International Database data estimates that Gaza’s Palestinian population increased from only 265,800 in 1960 to 342,700 in 1970, 431,600 in 1980, 645,100 in 1990, 1,1 million in 2000, 1.5 million in 2010, and 2.1 million in 2023 and that it will rise to 2.4 million, 2.9 million in 2040, and 3.2 million, It shows that Gaza already has a population density of 5,839 per square kilometer, most of which is under 14 years of age and well over half of which is under 19.

The CIA World Factbook states that peace negotiations in Gaza have virtually stalled since 2001, and that once Hamas forces violently seized power from the Palestine Liberation Organization in June 2007 living conditions and freedom of movement have declined while unemployment and dependence on aid have sharply increased.

“Israel and Egypt have enforced tight restrictions on movement and access of goods and individuals into and out of the territory Israel and Egypt have enforced tight restrictions on movement and access of goods and individuals into and out of the territory.” It states that Gaza only has a territory of some 360 square kilometers, and border with Israel only 59-kilometer long, with a 13-kilometer border with Egypt, plus a 40-kilometer coastline where Israel closed its maritime area in January 2009, and which has since been blockaded by the Israeli navy.

• Gaza’s only resources are limited areas of arable land and natural gas (whose development Israel controls), and its population was 1.99 million in 2022, with 42.5 percent aged 14 or younger and 21.7 percent aged 15 to 24. Its rate of urbanization was over 77 percent and steadily growing. Its youth unemployment rate, including the impact of a higher rate of employment in the West Bank, was still 41.7 percent in 2021.

• Its economy suffers from “movement and access restrictions, violent attacks, and the slow pace of post-conflict reconstruction continue to degrade economic conditions in the Gaza Strip, the smaller of the two areas comprising the Palestinian territories. Israeli controls became more restrictive after HAMAS seized control of the territory in June 2007. Under Hamas control, Gaza has suffered from rising unemployment, elevated poverty rates, and a sharp contraction of the private sector, which had relied primarily on export markets.”

• The CIA data also indicates Gaza per capita income is only around $6,200 a year and has declined since 2017.

UN agencies also provided the following reports on Gaza’s problems before the current fighting, although many Israeli experts feel they overstate Palestinian problems and understate the degree to which failures and divisions in Palestinian governance have cased these problems. The United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) reported before the fighting that:

• More than half Gaza’s population (1.3 million) need major amounts of aid with 33 percent under serious stress, 29 percent with serve needs, 17 percent with extreme-catastrophic needs, and a total of 58 percent needed humanitarian aid. OCHA’s summary of humanitarian needs before the October fighting began stated: “29 per cent of households were categorized as ‘catastrophic’ or ‘extreme’, compared with 10 per cent in 2021. . . . Recurrent escalation of hostilities in Gaza, the most recent one in early August 2022, caused fatalities, injuries, mental health needs, destruction of homes and structures, and has aggravated Gaza’s chronic shelter, infrastructure, and energy deficits. The restrictive and discriminatory planning regime.” It also stated that there were only 17,000 Palestinian work permits holders that could work in Israel although other estimates cite 19,000. This is a tiny level of external employment compared to the size of the work force.

• “This land, sea and air blockade on the Gaza Strip intensified previous restrictions, imposing strict limits on the number and specified categories of people and goods allowed through the Israeli-controlled crossings. . . . In June 2007, following the takeover of Gaza by Hamas, the Israeli authorities implemented a blockade/movement restriction citing security concerns, virtually isolating the 2.2 million residents in Gaza.”

• “The Gaza Strip is one of the most densely populated areas in the world at 5,900 residents per square kilometer, with 41 per cent of the population in Gaza under the age of 15…The recent (pre-October 2023) escalation of hostilities has heightened risks and exacerbated the vulnerabilities of young people in Gaza, resulting in high rates of anxiety, depression, and post-traumatic stress disorder, all of which may increase high-risk behavior. At the same time, rapid population growth coinciding with eroding development gains and limited resources results in further deterioration of living standards and development prospects in Gaza.”

• “During the second quarter of 2022, the unemployment rate was 44 per cent in the Gaza Strip . . . Food insecurity in Gaza remains high at 63 percent. While 93 per cent of food insecure families felt worried about not having enough food to eat, 55 per cent of families had to skip a meal as a coping mechanism.”

• “The water crisis in Gaza, due to over-extraction from the coastal aquifer, sea water infiltration and pollution, is particularly severe and an ever-growing population lacks access to clean water supplies. This affects over 90 per cent of households in Gaza, impacting health and general hygiene and causing more than a quarter of all childhood disease.”

• “Under the blockade of the Gaza Strip, livelihood and employment opportunities are extremely limited. More than half of Gaza households reported NGO or charity assistance as one of their primary sources of income in the 30 days prior to MSNA data collection. Taking on debt, primarily to meet basic needs, was a widespread practice, with 83 per cent of households reporting having outstanding debt and 79 per cent of households having taken on recent debt in the 3 months prior to data collection. These factors, combined with the fact that 60 percent of households reported a member of their household unemployed and unable to find work, further highlight the socioeconomic vulnerability of Gaza households. With 93 per cent of Gaza households having employed at least one type of coping mechanism due to a lack of food or none.”

A Hamas Attack That Could Only Make Things Far Worse

In fairness to Israel, it is important to remember that Israel withdrew its settlers from Gaza in a search for peace as well as security and did make continuing efforts to reach a settlement and working relationship with Hams. The security measures Israel took before October 2023 were also driven by the threat or reality of Palestinian violence, terrorist acts and Intifadas, and a long cycle of broader Arab-Israeli conflict helped create many of these Israeli security arrangements and restrictions.

It is equally clear that Hamas and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad either had to expect a military miracle or knew all too well that their attack might win limited “victories” but would most certainly create a defeat and new Israel military action and security measures that would make life in Gaza far worse.

It is easy to talk about Israeli “abuses” of human rights, but there has never been a clear line distinguishing between war and peace since at least 1948, and the sheer violence of Hamas’s recent attack on Israel almost instantly made it focus on war rather than peace.

The growing human costs of the war in Gaza were clear as early as October 10, 2023, when Israel stated that has halted exports of water, electricity, fuel and closed its border to trade and new aid deliveries, and the OCHA reported major air attacks on civil targets and the displacement of hundreds of thousands of Gazan civilians.

The United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA) reported that it was able to maintain some aid and medical activities and some water distribution, but that “the Israeli Authorities closed all crossings from the West Bank into East Jerusalem and Israel for Palestinian ID holders, including UN and International NGOs staff.”

The fighting halted all solid waste collection and transfer to landfill activities remain on hold. Transfer of solid waste from shelters to the landfills has started, and that “nearly half a million Gaza’s (112,000 families) have not been able to get their food rations since UNRWA food distribution centers closed on 7 October.”

Israel has made it clear that it is planning a major land-air operation to follow, and the damage to Gaza’s civil population seems certain to spiral upwards in the days to come with no predictable end. The fighting seems likely to well end in either a lasting Israeli occupation and security presence in Gaza or a whole new set of restriction on Gazans and border barriers. It is equally clear that that the ongoing fighting is likely to do more to divide Israeli and Palestinians than push them toward a peace settlement.

The Death of the Two-State Solution

The ongoing fighting now warns that two-state solution may not be totally dead but is so close to death that efforts to revive it are likely to be little more than acts of zombie diplomacy. The Palestinian government in the West Bank is a hollow shell of a real and effective government. The Palestinian Authority has become a failed democracy with a weak and ineffective leader who has stayed in office for far too long. It has serious levels of corruption, lacks the ability to reshape a weak and crippled economy, and its efforts to create effective security forces have not been effective enough to deal with even its current challenges.

As for Hamas, it came to power in Gaza in 2006 and 2007, in large part because of the ineffectiveness and corruption of the PLO. The result, however, is that Hamas’s militancy and attacks on Israel from 2007 to 2023 have led Israel to take security measures that made the plight of ordinary Gazans far worse. As a result, Israel must fight a war where there now is no clear alternative to Hamas in Gaza or indication that Gazans would want to be governed by the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank.

Israeli anger and the hardline nature of the Netanyahu-dominated joint government—its past support of new settlements and hardline anti-Palestinian positions—make it all too likely that Israel’s solution to “peace” will be to isolate or occupy Gaza, to exert even more economic and security pressures on Gaza’s population, introduce new security restrictions on Palestinians in Jerusalem and the West Bank, expand Israeli settlements and the Israeli presence in Jerusalem, and take only cosmetic diplomatic steps toward a true political and solution to creating a viable peace.

The end result is all too likely to be futile outside efforts to continue the failed approach to peace that has been shaped by the negotiating efforts to create a two-state solution to the Arab-Israeli conflict ever since the Camp David Accords in 1978. This series of “wars to end all peace” has now gone on for nearly half a century, and every effort to negotiate a real two-state solution has ended in failure, a new round of fighting or Intifadas, and more tension between Israel and the Palestinians.

All diplomatic good intentions and rhetoric aside, continuing to focus on the two-state solution will only continue a history where every effort to create such a lasting peace since 1948 has led to new wars and new tensions between Israel and the Palestinians. If anything, such efforts have so far helped prevent the creation of a stable political and economic structure for the Palestinians and helped create a lasting threat to Israel.

There Is a More Meaningful and Immediate Option

This does not mean that a more meaningful effort to negotiate more meaningful and practical peace efforts is not worth trying. What it does mean is that it may be far more important to try to create immediate steps to create a more stable “no-state” solution.

One such option is to put international pressure on the Israeli government to halt the expansion of settlements and ease restrictions on the civil life of some estimates indicate around 1.9 million Palestinians in Israel proper and more than two million in the West Bank. Another is to exert pressure on Israel to limit its postwar economic isolation of Gaza’s two million residents while recognizing that Israel does have very real new internal security needs. It seems equally important to ensure that the present arrangements for Jordan’s role in support of the Al Aqsa Mosque continue, along with the restrictions on Israeli religious ceremonies on the Temple Mount.

At the same time, it will be critical to minimize any “blame games” by the U.S. and international community that hold either Israel or all the Palestinians to blame for the current crisis. U.S. and international community need to focus on steps that will limit the impact of Hamas’s invasion and Israel’s war in Gaza and this aftermath.

The key near-term approach to such an effort to ease the risks of a “no-state solution” may be international efforts to offer major new postwar aid and opportunities to the Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank on a conditional basis. Offering such aid to the Palestinians, supported by active efforts to ensure human rights in ways that did not cripple Israel’s internal security programs, would at least offer a tangible way to move toward a more stable peace.

The present levels of poverty and unemployment in Gaza have made popular support of Hamas and violence all too serious, and Israel’s future wartime and postwar security efforts will almost certainly make this situation far worse. The same may be true to a lesser extent of the war’s impact on Israeli and Palestinian actions in the West Bank. Once again, the gap between Israel and West Bank incomes and employment opportunities is a key source of its tensions and violence.

At the same time, such international aid must be conditional on Palestinian non-violence, on ensuring that it is independent of Israeli political and security interests, and on providing effective outside international management and planning that ensures such aid is used honestly and effectively.

Such efforts clearly will not shape a lasting peace but can have a quick practical and political impact. They deal with the most urgent practical concerns of most Palestinians without affecting the security and income of Israel’s Jewish citizens. In a world where the “no-state” solution seems to be the only practical near-term outcome of the present war for at least several years in the future, aid at least is a potential step forward and a way of bringing a more productive pause in the fighting.