the DON JONES INDEX…

 

 

GAINS POSTED in GREEN

LOSSES POSTED in RED

 

    1/29/24...     15,025.18

    1/22/24...     15,036.78

     6/27/13…    15,000.00

 

(THE DOW JONES INDEX: 1/29/24... 38,109.43; 1/22/24... 37,863.80; 6/27/13… 15,000.00)

 

LESSON for JANUARY TWENTY NINTH, 2024 – “AND THEN THERE WERE TWO (and a half) PERSONS!” 

 

Nikki Haley rumbled into New Hampshire last week, looking to beat the spread on her first head to head primary confrontation while former President Donald Trump dropped in and out, in and out, transiting between Manchester and New York City and his civil trial in the matter of slandered suffer-gette E. Jean Carroll.  Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who had edged out Haley for second in the previous Iowa caucuses decided that second wasn’t good enough and scuttled home to Disneyworld under the slings and arrows of a media hostile to him from the get-go leaving Nikki with the orchestration she’d wanted... mano a mano (or main féminine) for the thirty one electors from the Granite State and the momentum headed into Super Tuesdau and the convention.

She didn’t cover.  It was close, but according to varying accounts of he vote counts, Djonald UnStoppable prevailed by about twelve points, with the numbers negligible for DeSantis and the rest of the field.  (See Attachment A)

There was also a Democratic primary, first reckoning in the country, and with a twist.  Due to a spat between State and Federal government, the incumbent President was excluded from the primary ballot, necessitating the donkey faithful to take to the streets and convince the leftish public to write in Biden as opposed to one of the challengers: Minnesota Congressman Dean Phillips, self-help witch Marianne Williamson and the Don Jones favorite Vermin Supreme.  There were twenty one candidates in all, as opposed to twenty four Republicans and President Joe avoided a serious embarrassment by securing over half the vote.  (Attachment B)

When the last electors trudged home through the snows of freezing Iowa, a victorious Ol’ 45 looked backwards (victorious, but ever-angry) and admitted to himself, if not others, that it was good.

MAGA partisans saw sunshine and strudel in the Granite State too.  Haley’s hopes were pinned to the modified open primary rules and regulations... unlike assertations that Democrats could cross over and pollute the vote, New Hampshirites registered to a party had to pull the levers for the donkeys or the elephants.  Independents, however, could voice their choice in either and, given that closure for registration occurred long ago, (but not long enough ago for liberals to foresee the terrible challenge of Dean Phillips, Marianne Williamson and Vermin Supreme to their President) could just quit, register Republican and vote for one of Trump’s then-challenging candidates – which, by Tuesday, had boiled down to Nikki.

The conservative Washington Examiner’s W. James Antle floated three scenarios for the first full primary of 2024.  (1/23, 6:21 AM EST, Attachment One).

Haley wins (or at least comes close)

“If we see a strong showing from former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley, we will have several more weeks of a competitive campaign season,” Antle forecast.

By the time former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie suspended his campaign, “Haley had closed to within single digits of Trump in at least one reputable Granite State poll and a lower-rated one. Many of Christie’s Never Trump supporters were likely to gravitate toward Haley, in addition to voters unaffiliated with either party who are eligible to vote in the GOP primary.”

Haley loses, but beats expectations (and the spread)

At this point, a first-place showing by Haley would have been an upset, Antle stated – instead she said she hoped to get “close” to Trump.  Various partisan pollsters and pundits chose various scenarios, but the “point spread” (to use a football gambler’s term) was around ten points in favor of Ol’ 45 (or about fifty five percent of the turnout).

Twenty-four percent (in a two-person race) would be better than she did in Iowa, “but probably not enough to generate any buzz,” Antle wrote. “But if she breaks 40%, that might plausibly be spun as a moral victory.”

“At 50 percent, it’s crystal clear that Trump doesn’t have this primary or the party sewn up like he claims,” Mark Harris, the lead strategist for a pro-Haley super PAC, wrote in a Monday memo. Trump won 51% in Iowa and is at 54.9% in the New Hampshire RealClearPolitics polling average.

Trump wins New Hampshire in march to the nomination

Or. “...if former President Donald Trump dominates the proceedings Tuesday night, she will have difficulty escaping his shadow.”

With endorsements piling up for Trump, WHDH TV and Emerson College found Trump beating Haley and the spread by 53% to 37%, with DeSantis still in the race taking 10%. The Washington Post and Monmouth showed Trump leading 52% to 34%, with DeSantis at 8%.

After Ron quit, Antle cited a Boston Globe-Suffolk survey that had Trump defeating Haley 57% to 38. Trafalgar pegged Trump at 58%, InsiderAdvantage 62%. Haley was still hovering around “the 40% that could keep her viable,” but even that would have doubled the spread.

And New Hampshire, the Trump-friendly Examiner concluded, “could be the last shot to ensure a truly competitive GOP nomination fight.”

 

The match drew motion even cross the ocean; Al Jazeera concurring that “New Hampshire could present Haley with her best chance to beat Trump by building support among unregistered voters.”  (1/23, Attachment Two)

Upon explication of the regulations, the Jazzies made their argument that Saint Ron, who’d dropped out of the race on Sunday, “had about 5 percent of support according to polls. He has since endorsed Trump, and if his supporters vote for Trump, that could further strengthen the chances of the real estate developer-turned-politician.”

Still, New Hampshire could have given Haley “a shot to show that Trump can be vulnerable.”  Had she won, she could proceed to the South Carolina primary as a viable Trump alternative, making the argument to the Republican voter base that she represents the future of the party and Trump the past.

“Which Democrats and Republicans are expected on the ballot?” the Arabs asked.

Republicans: “There are 24 names on the ballot, but Trump remains the most popular, followed by Haley. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is also on the ballot, though he ended his 2024 campaign, endorsing Trump on Sunday. Names of other candidates who have dropped out are also on the ballot, including Chris Christie, Asa Hutchinson, and Vivek Ramaswamy.”

Democrats: “There are 21 names are on the ballot, including US Representative Dean Phillips of Minnesota and self-help guru Marianne Williamson (but not Biden).

 

When the votes were counted Tuesday night, Trump had prevailed – beating  Haley and the spread, only by just a smidgen with all but five percent of the ballots counted.  He’d garnered 174,800 votes, according to the New York Times... 54.3% to Haley’s 43.3%  (139,383).  (Attachment Three) Many charts and graphs broke down the results by region, and by demographics (for example, Haley held a wide lead in Hanover, where Dartmoth University students chose her over the Donald by a wide margin.

The WashXaminer reported that Trump’s victory, howsoever close to the spread, dealt “a blow to former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley’s prospects even as she refuse(d) to drop out.”

“The results were hardly a surprise for many of Trump’s supporters, as polls showed him with a substantial lead for weeks leading up to the election.”  The results were interpreted in four “key takeaways” to make the point that resistance had been and would be futile for the South Carolinian...

1.  As “no Republican candidate has ever won both the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary without going on to win the party’s presidential nomination,” deserting Haleyites were joining MAGA submissives in urging her to drop out.  “It is time for the Republican Party to coalesce around our nominee and the next president of the United States, Donald Trump,” Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC), once a primary rival to Trump, said on Tuesday night and, perhaps, bolstered his chances of being selected as the winner’s new Mike Pence in November by traversing the trails of talkshows and meet/greet appearances throughout the remainder of the week.

2.  Haley’s refusal to drop out has angered the former President, saying that “New Hampshire is the first in the nation; it is not the last in the nation...” eliciting the reaction, over the weekend, that any lingering “enemies” who expressed support for or gave money to the loser would be cut off at the ankles by MAGA, just like the Jackie Robinson statue in Kansas.

3.  Exit polls, including those taken after the Democratic primary, showed that Republican moderates and independents remained isolated and off Team Trump.  CNN polling even found that “(r)oughly half of the voters on Tuesday said they believed President Joe Biden’s victory over Trump in 2020 was legitimate,” another shift from the roughly two-thirds who denied Biden’s victory in Iowa, according to the outlet. 

4.  President Joe did what he had to do... no more and no less, according to the Associated Pres, which called the race in Biden’s favor shortly after the polls closed. “With 85% of the ballots in, Biden had tallied at least a third of the votes, while another third were write-in votes that had yet to be processed. Phillips garnered 20% of the vote, while author Marianne Williamson trailed behind at 5%.”

 

(Timeslines of primary day developments were published by three Timeliners and we have collected same and chronologically ordered the dispatches as Attachment C.)

 

The business journal Forbes (named after the family... one of whom dipped his toe into Presidential politics himself back in the day... noted that the winner’s celebration was a subdued, yet steamy affair as Trump “lashed out at Fox News and hurled personal insults” at Haley... calling her “birdbrain” and claiming he was leading in her home state of South Carolina by “30 to 50 points.”

“Trump then turned his ire towards Fox News for saying “CNN & MSDNC” treated his “BIG, DOUBLE DIGIT” win over Haley “BETTER THAN FOX!”  He appeared to be particularly displeased with Fox host and his former White House Press Secretary Kayleigh McEnany—whom he called a “RINO” (Republican In Name Only)—for “telling me what I can do better.”  (1/24. 4:47 AM, Attachment Five)

Biden, all but announcing that the Republican race was over, stoked the fires of the general election by saying that the “stakes could not be higher,” and warned that “...“Our Democracy. Our personal freedoms - from the right to choose to the right to vote. Our economy which has seen the strongest recovery in the world since COVID. All are at stake.”

Angrily telling supporters that “This is not your typical victory speech, but let’s not let someone take a victory when she had a very bad night,” he added as the Hour of the Wolf drew near: “(Haley) didn’t win, she lost.”  (Washington Times, 1/23, Attachment Six)  “Who the hell is the imposter that went up on the stage before and, like, claimed a victory?”

Mr. Trump also attacked Gov. Chris Sununu of New Hampshire, who endorsed Ms. Haley, saying he “has to be on something” and adding he has “never seen anybody with [so much] energy.”

“He is like hopscotch,” Mr. Trump said.

 

Another friendly medium, the New York Post, reported that the 77 year-old 45th president “took the stage in Nashua to deliver a taunting triumphal address” directed at his last major rival in the GOP field.

“Who the hell was the imposter that went up on the stage... and claimed victory?” Trump asked as his supporters chanted “Bird-brain!” in reference to the former president’s derogatory nickname for his one-time ambassador to the United Nations. (1/23. 11:01 PM, Attachment Seven)

While Haley had trooped through the Granite state, seeking votes, Djonald UnAvailable had spent most of Primary Week down south in New York, bantering with officials in his various legal matters. 

Flanked by former rivals... “Vivek Ramaswamy and Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC) and allies like far-right Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.)” Trump also “sneered” at Sununu for backing Haley, and at pussy-whipped DeSantis (who would crawl to the winner hours later, begging for a bone). He sent surrogates... Scott, Greene and Ramaswamy and Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY) to entertain the mob at rallies — “while his campaign made hundreds of thousands of phone calls in a bid to boost voter turnout.”

“Remember, Ron came in second, and he left.”

On the Democratic side, early calculations gave President Joe a 37.2% plurality, “more than enough to thwart his nearest challenger, Rep. Dean Phillips (D-Minn.), who attained 19.6% of the vote.

“As of early Wednesday, another 30.8% of ballots in the Democratic race were unprocessed write-in votes, the vast majority of which were expected to go to Biden as well and push his  comfortably above 50.”  Trailing were Williamson and the DJI’s own choice, Vermin Supreme.

The Verm had... and will probably continue to... run on a platform “that includes free ponies for all Americans, time travel research and using zombies to create energy by harnessing “the latest in hamster wheel technology.”

He also runs on a promise of mandatory toothbrushing laws, “because gingivitis has been eroding the country's gum line for long enough and must be stopped."  (WGBH, Boston, Attachment Eight)

He wears a boot on his head which is a symbol, he told Boston Public Radio in New Hampshire on Tuesday, of the media's obsession with candidates. “Personnel from the media will ask me about the boot and I tell them that the boot is a pile of excrement and that they are the flies that buzz around it,” he explained.

Vermin confronted Saint Ron at a New Hampshire rally on Friday before the big show, telling the Floridian’s supporters that “a lot of people attacked Ron DeSantis because I was on stage, and they felt his security failed.”

Shortly after, DeSantis dropped out of the race but still received a handful of votes.

 

Among the flies and fly-catchers swarming through New Hampshire in the cold, Time checked in on the side of Trump at 9:15 on Tuesday while the votes were still being tallied, declaring that the Ex was “seizing command of the race for the Republican nomination and making a November rematch against President Joe Biden feel all the more inevitable.”  (Attachment Nine)

Trump’s allies ramped up pressure on Haley to leave the race before the polls had closed, “but Haley vowed after the results were announced to continue her campaign. Speaking to supporters, she intensified her criticism of the former president,” questioning his mental acuity (confusing her with Nancy Pelosi, for example) and pitching herself as a unifying candidate who would usher in generational change.

“This race is far from over. There are dozens of states left to go,” Haley said, while some in the crowd cried, “It’s not over!”

As South Carolina’s former governor, Haley is hoping a strong showing there could propel her into the March 5 Super Tuesday contests. “But in a deeply conservative state where Trump is exceedingly popular, those ambitions may be tough to realize and a home-state loss could prove politically devastating,” contended a trio of Time servers who, on the other hand, suggested that the only obstacles in Djonald’s run for the White House are legal, as opposed to electoral.

Trump has repeatedly told supporters that he’s being prosecuted on their behalf, “an argument that appears to have further strengthened his bond with the GOP base” every time more civil or criminal rockets are launched against him.

But there remains no indication that he’ll try to win over moderates, independents and millenials by easing up on the bellicose rhetoric.  “If he returns to the White House,” Time stated, “the former president has promised to enact a hardline immigration agenda that includes stopping migrants from crossing the U.S.-Mexico border and reimposing his first-term travel ban that originally targeted seven Muslim-majority countries. He’s also said the rising number of immigrants entering the United States are “poisoning the blood of our country,” Time added, “...echoing Adolf Hitler’s language.”

Back in Time’s inner sanctum, opinion addict and early riser Philip Elliott had predicted, Election Morning (6:00 AM, Attachment Ten), that... while it had taken her almost a year... Haley had achieved her ultimate goal: “a one-on-one race against Donald Trump. But now that she's reached that position, outlasting a long list of men vying for the same spot, it might not be as enviable as she once considered it.”

While acknowledging the former Governor and United Nations ambassador has “shown a mix of flinty pluck and feisty resolve during the last week,” Elliott contended that she had made “perhaps the most credible case against Trump since the spring of 2016, when Ted Cruz’s last-ditch effort proved too tardy to matter.”

But she has also endured a barrage of insults that, should she so desire, might win her a few millions in some liberal court... including a revival of the Obama “birther” accusations... and while her alternating demands and supplications that Ol’ 45 man up and debate her had been ignored, inspiring her to refuse to participate in any further one-person debates (a mistake: with no chance at nomination, she could at least trump Trump on the entertainment end by bringing in a ringer to be situated opposite her – a cackling chicken, for example, or Sam Sloan – or maybe pander to the Gen. Z constituency by debating in a Taylor Swift t-shirt) Elliott wrapped by revisiting the “unofficial mantra” among political zealots follows that “Iowa picks corn while New Hampshire picks Presidents.”

The defining factor, he sums up, will be sums... some sums of money from old-line conservative Republican plutocrats.

“There will be a good number of bank transfers on the donors’ screens as the polls close on Tuesday. Hitting the confirm button will hinge on how those donors are conditioned to see Haley’s numbers, and whether there is a reasonable belief that Haley is getting close to her goals, or if Trump is simply too big of a force to bump off course.

“For Haley, who has been pining for this exact head-to-head with her former boss,” there’s nowhere to hide if this (meaning the “green”) “goes sideways.”

 

One might think that the liberal Guardian U.K. would show Nikki a little love and kindness, but no, not on Tuesday.  (Attachment Eleven)

:In the first official results, all six voters in Dixville Notch picked Haley in a traditional midnight primary, a contest once seen as a bellwether for predicting the nominee.”  Things slid downwards from there.

Before the voting, Trump fired off “insults and misrepresentations, accusing his former UN ambassador of relying on “globalists” and liberals. He also revived a “birtherism” lie which claims Haley is ineligible for president because her parents were not US citizens when she was born. Born in South Carolina to parents from India, Haley is eligible. Trump also appeared to mock Haley by referring to (and misspelling) her given name, Nimarata. Haley has always used her middle name, Nikki.”

“We don’t believe in coronations in this country,” Haley told Fox News. “I’m in this for the long haul.”

Trump dominated South Carolina polling, however.

So, is the Republican presidential primary over already?

Not quite, but it’s a reasonable question after New Hampshire’s first-in-the-nation primary delivered a clear victory for Donald Trump last night. (New  York Times, Attachment Twelve)  “And if your definition of “over” is whether Trump is now on track to win without a serious contest, the answer is probably “yes.”

This Times (left center as opposed to Washington’s hard right) stated that New Hampshire had been Haley’s best chance to take up the chase... based on crossover, Independing and RINO voters and an educated population (eighth in the nation) at least somewhat resistance to false flags.

Haley made good on all of these advantages yesterday, quoth the Tmes. “She won 74 percent of moderates, according to the exit polls, along with 58 percent of college graduates and 66 percent of voters who weren’t registered Republicans.”

But it wasn’t close to enough. Haley lost Republicans by a staggering 74 percent to 25 percent — and the Times called Republicans “an important group in a Republican primary.”

The New Hampshire result puts Trump on a comfortable path to the nomination. “If he’s convicted of a crime, perhaps he’ll lose the nomination at the convention.”  (More likely, it will just increase his power and finances.)  But by the usual rules of primary elections, there’s just not much time for the race to change. If it doesn’t, Trump could easily sweep all 50 states.

The Washington Post (as opposed to the Times and Examiner, both MAGA to the max) proffered its own Five Takeaways at 10:16, 1/23, and they were...

1. It looks all but over

It’s not a novel take, but it’s true.  A month will be a long time to keep (Haley’s) campaign rolling “without much in the way of momentum or belief.”

  2. Haley voters were meh about her, which says something about Trump

  3. The other big exit poll numbers

Fewer New Hampshire voters denied the results of the 2020 election (51 percent) than did Iowa voters (66 percent).

·         67 percent of voters opposed a federal law banning most or all abortions, compared with 27 percent who favored one.

42 percent of voters said Trump wouldn’t be fit to serve as president if he’s convicted of a crime — up from 31 percent in Iowa.

Nonetheless, Trump beat Haley... and the spread.

  4. Haley’s reasons for staying in appear elusive

She did cite Trump’s “senior moments,” a growing theme for Trump’s opponents.   “A Trump nomination is a Biden win and a Kamala Harris presidency,” Haley said, “The first party to retire its 80-year-old candidate is going to be the party that wins this election.” (Trump is actually 77.)

5. Biden’s apparent big win erases any doubt

(He overcame Dean Phillips and Marianne Williamson: like... wow! – DJI)

 

The day after the primary, a female “fellow” at the liberal Salon reported upon the victor’s victory tweets on Truth Social and other forums, noting how the former president was "melting down after telling his people for a week he was going to win by 30."

"HALEY said she had to WIN in New Hampshire. SHE DIDN'T!!!" Trump wrote, adding "DELUSIONAL" in another Truth posted shortly thereafter. (Attachment Fourteen)

Joined by adversary turned dogsbody Tim Scott, he had asked the Senator “Did you ever think [about how] she actually appointed you, Tim? … And you’re the senator of her state? You must really hate her."

“I just love you,” Scott bent the knee with a laugh.

On Tuesday, another liberal rag... the Huffington Post... reported that the first thing he’d told supporters, once the polls had closed (8:02 PM, Attachment Fifteen) was: “I don’t get angry, I get even.  You can’t let people get away with bullshit. And when I watched her in the fancydress ― that probably wasn’t so fancy ― come up, I said, ‘What’s she doing? We won.’”

He then launched into a rant filled with his familiar lies – “about the 2020 election having been stolen from him, including a new one that he had won the 2020 general election in New Hampshire, when in fact he had lost it by 60,000 votes or 7 percentage points.”

But the hopeful Huffers also held out promises of their own retribution if his trial in Washington on four felony charges “related to his words and actions around the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol by a mob” actually does begin on March fourth, the day after Super Tuesday.  Then again, the HuffPost did admit that delays caused by his appeal appear likely to delay the start of the trial, “although it is unclear by how much” and that speedups of any of his other legal encounters might impact the “enthusiasm” so many professionals believe can win or lose elections, even though citizens, no matter how fanatical, have no more and no less effect than their others (unless they pick up a gun and play Oswald or Sirhan).

DeSantis, who endorsed Trump after ending his campaign for the nomination on Sunday, said the 91 felony charges across four indictments “increased Trump’s popularity and made it impossible for any rival to defeat him in the primaries” or, extrapolating the phenomenon the general election.

So – since the bigger the criminal, the bigger the vote,  The only opponent T has to fear might be Santos, Menendez or a Kohberger/Crumbly/Murdaugh/Dylan Roof-rat or, maybe, Alec Baldwin.

Or, perhaps, Taylor Swift (as below).

 

Among the unliberal foreign press, we have already noted and included the Telegraph’s Tuesday timeline; the rival Daily Mail checked in Wednesday morning (Attachment Sixteen) and reporter Scott Jennings asserted that: “Slice it any way you want - Donald Trump has made history in the 2024 Republican primary race.

“No other non-incumbent GOP candidate has won the first two presidential nominating contests in the modern-era - and Trump has done it with resounding victories in Iowa and New Hampshire.”

So, when she took to the podium at her campaign HQ last night, after news networks began calling the race for Trump, the country collectively held its breath for her announcement.

Was she dropping out?

No!

Instead, she derided Fearless Leader’s “mental acuity”, ticked off the civil and criminal trials “and (re-) demanded that Trump debate her. (“Why would he start now?” Jennings asked.)

Dismissing the scenario that Nikki’s angling for the VP slot... the hate is too great and memories of Mike facing noose abuse too loosely bandied about among the cognoscenti... the reporter said it was more likely that she would stay in and burn donor cash until the spigot was turned off and that, if Djonald UnContested did pick a former rival, it would likely be Scott, or even Ramaswamy.  

There may, as we stated, be two and a half humans in the running for President... old white Joe and old angry Donnie, of course, and another person of the female gender mixing up the mix.

But it’s not and won’t be Sweet Nikki. Instead, the only person who can derail the Trump train,(either before or after Super Tuesday, the Republican convention or general election) is Georgia prosecutor Fani Willis.

The reason is simple: his civil cases may ultimately cost Trump money, even necessitation of confiscating, selloff and renaming of Trump Tower and other iconic assets, but he can always go on GoFundMe and beg, and the suckas will respond.  The Federal criminal cases may be serious and result in serious prison time, but there’s an easy out... win and then pardon himself.

The electoral tampering is different.  Deep red authorities in a purpling state, from Governor Kemp and SecState Raffensperger on down to the minions of Justice bear personal animosity towards Trump and will likely let events just play out... a conviction, under law, meaning Trump can get into jail and stay there, even if he wins.

A scenario and spectacle to delight the anarchist indwelt in us all!

Fani is the only person who can whack Trump’s back, short of some lone gunman... but again, the luck of the Ire-ish is holding due to her own personal improprieties – as could well result in charges being dropped in exchange for a favor here or there or, at a minimum, delay any trial until 2025.

So, instead of two and a half humans holding the reins of November, it might be two and a quarter... or less.

 

So, will Haley actually make it to South Carolina on February 24... let alone the convention in Milwaukee, or even Super Tuesday?

“Color me skeptical,” Jennings predicts.  “Nobody wants to take a beating in their own backyard.”

 

Back to Salon Thursday morning, Senior Writer Amanda Marcotte summed up Tuesdays numbers and Wednesday’s thunders... “(k)eeping with his habit of being the worst person alive,” (worser than Putin?... than Hamas?) Donald Trump reacted to his victory by being a sore winner.  He birthered and fashion-shamed Haley and, as above, “even took his narcissistic injury out on Sen. Tim Scott, R-S.C., forcing Scott to say ‘I just love you’ in a maximally humiliating fashion.” 

He also claimed that anyone who offers Haley financial support "from this moment forth" will be "permanently barred from the MAGA camp." 

But Marcotte believes that, “...(d)espite the headlines about Republicans lining up behind Trump, there's significant evidence that, in fact, his leadership is causing the party to fracture and go to war with itself...” a war escalating to Congress on his dictate to House representatives to refuse to support the Senate negotiations that would otherwise give the hard right almost everything they’ve been asking for as regards mashing the migrants – because a resolution might help Biden’s electoral prospects.

It always has to be about Himself!

Delving into downballot races, Marcotte cited Melissa Ryan’s “Ctrl Alt Right Delete” (guess their leanings) report that “the MAGA power grab is being resisted by the few remaining Republicans not willing to see their party go full fascist.”

Unloading a wheelbarrow of dirty shirts, bloody flags and crazy quasi-criminal colludurators (including election denialists, reributionists and Christian churches, Marcotte and Ryan contend that Maga has "essentially given up on winning free and fair elections," hoping they can cheat their way to victory instead. “Or even, as January 6 showed, use violence to overcome that pesky ‘voters hate us’ problem” even though most polls and surveys show that voters, indeed, love what they perceive as Djonald’s “strength”.

Last week, Impeacher-ers further stickied up the House with James Comer (R-Ky) admitting to the New York Times, of all sources, that the Biden inquiry is a creep-fake initiated to massage the donor class and charges now proceeding against Homeland Security’s Alejandro Mayorkas so as to prevent him from working on the border crisis solution they say should not be solved... at least until November.

But while Salon and the rest of the leftist media (HuffPost, Slate, GUK and the such) believe or think that, as time and tremors escalate, ordinary voters who might otherwise vote Republican if not for their disgust, may just start walking away. 

But to where?  And to whom?

 

The numbers might not be there for Nikki, but the money still is.  The sort-of-far-right New York Post reported, albeit with puzzlement and regrets, that even after New Hampshire, Haley has hauled in $2.6 million including $1.2 million in small-dollar and digital donations despite the former president’s threats to blacklist everyone who donates to his former ambassador to the United Nations.  (Friday, 1/26, Attachment Eighteen)

“Anybody that makes a ‘Contribution’ to Birdbrain, from this moment forth, will be permanently barred from the MAGA camp,” Trump, 77, said in a Thursday Truth Social post, “using his preferred disparaging nickname for Haley, 52.”

“Birdbrain” seems to be waxing fat on birdseed scattered by small donors, turning the Trump trope of victimization on its head, but the big Democratic and old-style Republicans are starting to hold back and save their swag for November (or, in the case of never-Trump conservatives, a new yacht or island).

 “Before recommending another investment at this later stage in the process, Dmitri Mehlhorn, a political philanthropy adviser for Democrat and Haley megadonor told the Post, “I would need to see a new potential path.”  Increasingly, that path leads, if at all, to the courts, not any candidate.”

“You have to know when to hold them. You got to know when to fold them. You got to know when to walk away. It’s time for Nikki Haley to walk away,” metal magnate Andy Sabin told Fox Business host Neil Cavuto on Wednesday.

But the Fox also reported that Nikki’s long walk derives, if anything, from a growing personal animosity coaxing her further down that path trod by the likes of Chris Christie, who remained in the race long after his prospects evaporated – just to vex The Donald.  (1/23, Attachment Nineteen)

"I don't do what he tells me to do," Haley told Fox News and other news organizations as she took questions from reporters outside a polling station in a coastal New Hampshire town on Tuesday morning after the previous night’s rally in the biker-gangster citadel of Laconia, shot-caller Trump crowed "we started off with 13 [GOP White House candidates] and now we're down to two people.

"And I think one person will be gone probably tomorrow," he predicted, as he pointed... like an evil biker chieftan in a cop show having stolen a copy of a proposed summons based on the testimony of a disloyal subordinate and ordering a hit on the rat... towards Haley.

 

Certaom other documents acquired by conservative Breitbart by means unspecified included a memo from Camp Haley “boasting of the millions of dollars the campaign has raised.”  (Attachment Twenty)

Haley’s path to victory, according to the document, posits a “strong performance” in South Carolina, which has no party registration before the campaign moves on to Michigan which, the memo states, “has an open primary” wherein Democrats... with President Joe having conqured Marianne, Dean (and presumably the Skipper, too)... will cross over and further irritate Mister Trump.

“The memo adds that 11 of the 16 Super Tuesday states have open or “semi-open” primaries. In other words, the campaign believes there is “significant fertile ground” for Haley on Super Tuesday.” attracting non-conservative voters.

 

Salon, again, cited an interview given by Susan Collins, the Senator from adjacent Maine, to The Hill after Trump’s victory in the Granite State (1/24. Attachment Twenty One) having been only one of seven Republicans voting to convict the Ex-President for inciting the One Six riots (for which vote she was censured by the elephants) and also one of three Republican senators who voted in opposition to Trump’s attempt to repeal the Affordable Care Act in 2017.

When asked if she could envision supporting Trump if he secures the nomination, Collins said, "I do not at this point."

“I’m glad to hear last night,” she added, “that Nikki Haley is determined to stay in [the race.] I think the more people see of her, particularly since she appears to be the only alternative to Donald Trump right now, the more impressed they will be." 

But The Hill also pointed out that an increasing number of GOP senators are “vocalizing support for Trump as the 2024 elections grow nearer.”

So too, despite his three wives and numerous displays of worldly predilections, Trump has been consolidating both Republican and nonpartisan evangelical churches, even being quoted from pulpits across the land, according to Samuel Perry, a Professor of Sociology at the University of Oklahoma, writing in Time (Wednesday, Attachment Twenty Two).

(An aside... perhaps of substance, perhaps not... was a WashPost report that, with its vanquished champion home from the primary wars, the late, great state of Florida has removed sociology as a core course option for public colleges)

Noting that, despite his Godly pronouncements and War on Mickey, DeSantis badly lagged among the white evangelical voters he’d hoped would carry him to victory and. after he quit, any “flickers of hope that Trump’s evangelical support was vulnerable, particularly among the most devout” were... only flickers.

Perry cites a poll that he and psychologist Joshua Gribble took a poll of white evangelical voters – 53% of whom said they would vote for Trump, with 31% for DeSantis and less than 1% for old debbil Joe.

In other words, over a year before Republicans would need to decide their presidential candidate, Trump already enjoyed majority support among white evangelicals.

“Trump is the Republican party now, “ Perry concludes.  As Trump’s victory became more inevitable, any reluctant supporters among the most committed fall into line because they are not only partisans but culture warriors who still feel under attack and had more confidence in Trump than in DeSantis as their warrior king.  As journalist Tim Alberta has described the white evangelical mindset: “The barbarians are at the gates, and we need a barbarian to keep them at bay.” Trump is nothing if not a convincing barbarian.

“Trump has white evangelicals in his pocket. Whatever cognitive dissonance some devout Christians may feel for supporting a twice-impeached serial philandering liar who tried to stage a coup and threatens violence against political opponents is easily dismissed with the conviction that no Republican nominee, no matter how problematic, could be worse than losing to a Democrat,” like Hillary Clinton, who sent consolatory messages to Margot Robbie and Greta Gerwig after their "Barbie" Oscars snubs.

Or to Nikki Haley.

“The time for denial is over,” Salon’s Marcotte wrote later on Thursday morning; Republicans are “really nominating Donald Trump.”  (Attachment Twenty Three)

Mainstream media outlets like the Washington Post (which leaned into this style of hopium, reaching all the way back to Dwight Eisenhower's 1952 New Hampshire upset primary win) went into overdrive after all six voters in Dixville Notch voted for saw all 6 people who showed up voting for Haley (which late, late news early Monday morning was the last most Americans saw and heard before going to sleep).

So not all Americans are the "low information voters" we hear so much about. Many are generally well-informed about the political landscape and the stakes of an election where one candidate, Trump, attempted to overthrow democracy last time he lost. “But they still struggle to believe Trump will be the nominee.”

No doubt, part of the reason voters are confused is the misleading news coverage. “Part of it,” the virtuous Salon explains, “is an understandable inability to accept, on a deep emotional level, that Republican voters can be this stupid and/or evil... that it's hard to believe “Republicans would nominate this jackass again.”

Acknowledging that most Republicans pay their bills by working, instead of defrauding people, don't call on their social media followers to murder their colleagues or sexually assault women in department stores, Marcotte admits that it’s “hard to imagine their souls are so dark that they think this man — a fascist who sends violent goons after people and is currently (if expensively) harassing a woman he once sexually assaulted — is their number one pick for president. It's hard to believe it, but true: They may not act that way in person, but on some level, they really wish they could.”

 

A lot of mild-mannered reporters for great metropolitan newspapers (like the aforementioned Post) perhaps also wish they could jump on a Harley to rape and pillage in a small, quiet town like Laconia so its election morning take on Trump’s last rally in Harleyville was, if not nuanced, at least “enthusiastic”.

As the once and future Fuhrer trotted out Scott and Vivek to strains of theme music associated with the QAnon conspiritarians, a MAGAn in the crowd shouted out: “Twelve years of Trump!”

“You’re right,” Trump laughed. “Don’t say that too loud. ... You know they love to call me a fascist.”

This evoked more chanting: “Free the J6ers!”  The candidate said he would absolutely pardon the “hostages” as he has been doing in speeches since December.  (WashPost, Attachment Twenty Four)

 

As the polls closed and results began trickling across the pond, the Daily Mail, U.K. (Attachment Twenty Five, 1/22 updated 23:26 EST) reported that Trump had met with Lawrence Jones of the Fox “to discuss the state of the Republican presidential race” and, in particular, the Vice Presidency.

He said he appreciated Ron DeSantis' endorsement after the former governor dropped out of the contest on Sunday but said he didn't see him serving as his running mate or in his administration. 

“I have a lot of great people,” Trump said, and then added, pointedly: “And I have great people that have been with me right from the beginning,' he said.

But, at least, he added that he would retire the nickname 'Ron DeSanctimonious' now that “the Florida governor has endorsed him.”

As for ungrateful Nikki: 'She worked for me like two and a half years. She was okay. Not great. She was okay. She said to everybody, in fact, when she left, I would never run against the president.'

Who might be more suitable as Trump’s Veep?

The WashPost compiled a list of nine little supplicants, in order of what they believed to be probability (1/25, Attachment Twenty Six) and staff opinionator Aaron Blake selected Congressperson Elise Stefanik of New York as Candidate Number One.

Stefanik has shown a willingness to go to great lengths to defend and support Trump according to Blake’s Post colleague, Adam Glanzman.  “Trump seems to like Republicans he has been able to convert into loyalists, and few embody such a wholesale conversion as Stefanik. Trump and his allies have had very good things to say about the New York congresswoman” who, in return, says “pretty much anything to defend and support Trump, including most recently referring to Jan. 6 “hostages” and by claiming Trump hadn’t actually confused Nikki Haley with former House speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.).

Scott clocked in at second on Blake’s take with DeSantis fourth and Haley fifth, despite their temporary (the former) or ongoing (the latter) opposition.  One more former candidate was on the list too, but last... Vivek Ramaswamy Number Nine, Number Nine.

 

Blake’s listing, last year of top presidential candidates in both parties unsurprisingly chose Trump and Biden to be facing each other in the “rematch from Hell” but, although it is likely that Kamala Harris will remain on the Democratic ticket (although Blake did think Pete Butt had a better chance of ascension to higher office), the listings for Republicans may be applicable as regards Trump’s Vice President (September 3, 2023, Attachments Twenty Seven “A” and “B”) listed Ron and Nicki atop the greasy pole… an unlikely eventuality now… with the surviver being Scott.

“Every four years, there’s at least one candidate who summons every ounce of earnestness and goes all-in to plant a flag in a specific state. You can’t help but admire their gusto and bravada, essentially telling the world that this is their sole focus. And, like clockwork, many of those committed Quixotic campaigns simply cannot get it together just quite right. Pluck alone is often insufficient...

“The latest case study,” according to Time’s opinionator-in-chief Elliott, was Haley, whom he praised for her “incredible effort” in New Hampshire. For months, she did the quiet and unglamorous work of attending sparsely attended town halls far from the population centers in the state’s Southern Tier and braved the snows and slurs to get her message across... a message which, unfortunately, a majority of the :”Live Free or Die” staters weren’t supporting

“Nikki Haley Did New Hampshire Right. New Hampshire Didn't Care” was the title of his post-electoral autopsy (Attachment Twenty Eight) and perhaps it is a shame (if one overlooks her own Republican agenda) but the best she can hope for is to land on her feet and land a job somewhere in the mediaverse... perhaps with Fox, now that Trump and the Murdochs have follen out of love.  Or she could go into sociology and become a Professor (only not in Flordida).

 

But, for now, she’ll walk that long and winsome road towards Milwaukee, bolstered by memories of that high drama of Dixville Notch, New Hampshire as soon plummeted into a presumable Nikki Nadir – wending her winding way forth towards home and a probably gruesome demise preceding what paleo-conservative George Will called “the rematch from hell.”

 

Zachary Basu, of Axios, impied that a resolution of that rematch... polls be damned... would reveal that former President Trump, the Sultan of Schmooze, was domiciled in an increasably “shrinking tent” as would eventuall envelop and suffocate him in its fetters of the law and of his own arrogance and bad decisions.

“Trump, like any candidate, will need a broad coalition to win in November.” Zach posits... more or less discarding recent history (Attachment Twenty Nine),  one that “casts a far wider net than the core MAGA base responsible for his dominant victories in Iowa and New Hampshire.”

Standing on the demographics, and upon polls commissioned by no less conservative (if NeverTrump) a source than Fox News, whose voter analysis found that “35% of New Hampshire's voters would be so dissatisfied with a Trump nomination that they would not vote for him in November.”

Axios also found “warning signs” in the confidence of allies like the ever-bubbly MTG, who appeared on stage with Trump for his victory speech, and said the GOP is "completely eradicating" any Republican who doesn't adapt to Trump's policies.

Asked, then, how he'll get skeptical Haley supporters to vote for him in November, Trump told reporters: "They're going to all vote for me again. ... And I'm not sure we need too many."

Even “bleeding support from minorities and young voters,” and with his age remaining “a top concern for many voters,” it’s more likely than not he will.

 

Team Biden... bolstered by its latest expert on Presidential politics, John Kerry (tree hugger, former Senator and heir, by matrimony, to the Heinz pickle fortune)... more or less terminated the strangely financed campaign of Dean Phillips, who could never quite catch up to the incumbent, as well as those of Marianne and Vermin.  Still, sounding more like a fifth columnist than a loyal Democrat, Phillips was quoted Tuesday, as the results became manifest, saying that, while Biden had “absolutely won tonight, but by no means in a way that a strong incumbent president should” before vowing to “go to South Carolina, and then we’re going to go to Michigan and then we’re going to go to 47 other states.”  (New York Post, 1/23. 11:01 PM, Atttachment Thirty)

Trump, also, has failed to drive “Birdbrain” from the primaries and, even if his luck holds and the Georgia election tampering charges collapse like a cheap tent in a thunderstorm over the foibles of the “half person” in the picture (again - not Haley, but Fani) Donald won’t be able to duck the Presidential debates and will have to represent himself as regards to the issues of the day... those on which the incumbent is vulnerable, and those on which he is less so, except to the die hard MAGA base.

If nothing else, Haley and Phillips will be stirring the embers of both primary campaigns, and the few flames of publicity that flicker up will keep the candidacies of the leaders in the limelight, howsoever dimmed.  Inevitably, however, the attention of the media and the voters not committed to their party come Hell or High Crimes will turn to the issues... global and kitchen table... as will determine the leanings of that all-important slice of the uncommitted (or, even, the disgusted).

When the debates do occur (and President Joe and his predecessor/successor can no longer hide behind a smile or a sneer); what will they have to say about...

 

THE ECONOMY

Our roster of Fox News takeaways (see Attachment “C”) observing that GOP Sens. John Cornyn and Deb Fischer endorsed former President Trump on Tuesday night “following Trump's win in the New Hampshire primary in his bid to be crowned the Republican presidential nominee.” 

"It's time for Republicans to unite around President Donald Trump and make Joe Biden a one-term president," Fischer said in a statement. "These last three years have yielded a crippling border crisis, an inflationary economy that prices the American Dream out of reach for families, and a world in constant turmoil with our enemies on the march. I endorse Donald Trump for president so we can secure our border, get our economy moving again, and keep America safe."

Cornyn said in a statement posted to X, "To beat Biden, Republicans need to unite around a single candidate, and it’s clear that President Trump is Republican voters’ choice."

"Four more years of failed domestic policies like the Biden Border Crisis and record-high inflation, and failed foreign policies that have emboldened our adversaries and made the world a more dangerous place, must be stopped," he said. 

Fox also interviewed former candidate turned potential Number Two Number Two Scott, who said that Scott argued that Trump has already proven he is capable of lowering inflation and addressing illegal immigration, two top issues for Republicans and Americans in general.

And even Saint Ron, after his come-to-Djonald moment, said: "This is America's time for choosing. We can choose to allow a border invasion, or we can choose to stop it. We can choose reckless borrowing and spending, or we can choose to limit government and lower inflation. We can choose political indoctrination, or we can choose classical education."

"Joe Biden sees things differently,” Fox, in the interest of fairness and balance, published a statement by the President’s campaign manager Julie Chavez Rodriguez.  “He’s fighting to grow our economy for the middle-class, strengthen our democracy, and protect the rights of every single American. While we work toward November 2024, one thing is increasingly clear today: Donald Trump is headed straight into a general election matchup where he’ll face the only person to have ever beaten him at the ballot box: Joe Biden," she added.

He’ll also face...

 

THE CULTURE WARS

We have already noted the attraction of the abortion issue to Democrats... especially in the swing and/purple states, as well as even in some localities in red states as may tweak the house back onto the side of President Joe.

The reaction, on the Executive level, has been for Republicans to push for extreme restrictions, lock up pregnant women, doctors... even those who suffer miscarriages.  Shorter and shorter post-coital grace periods are being enacted and prohibitions against contraception are in the planning stage.

The second target of the MAGAright... more or less a case of corpse abuse, it being stolen from the defunct DeSantis campaign, has been a crusade against gays, lesbians and... especially... transgenders with God’s Army frothing at the mouth at incidents of who uses whose public restrooms and crossover butches scooping up athletic medals from deserving biological females.  While it seems that Micky, Donald, Goofy and/or Pluto (beware of human-animal hybrids!) is off the table, there has been a pushback among social conservatives to take back same sex marriages, even to follow Uganda down the road towards making homosexuality a capital crime.  As with abortion, Djonald UnCommitted will probably try to avoid answering any questions about sexuality – onstage or off – because that might lead to racial branding, at a time when the pink elephants are trying to make inroads into black, brown, red and yellow populations fed up with Democratic bungling.

The final issue for the Hard Right to attack and wimpy liberals to defend is truth itself... whether in a culture of denialism where “they” are conspiring against the good people and “goodness” itself is up for debate (although probably not in 2024).  This plays out most visibly in the education wars... with pollsters showing that Trump supporter ranked lower in social and economic standing and in educational attainment (if not necessarily street smarts) than those backing Haley.  Double the divide for the general election.  And the arrogance Trump has displayed time and again has been mirrored, not necessarily by Biden, but by the woke elites in academia and politics as they scurry about pulling down statues, changing names and spreading shame.

Team Trump can secure a victory should some hard left activists, acting within or beyond the law, take some extreme “woke” action around Halloween... if, for example, they blow up Mount Rushmore’s four evil white men (the slaveholding Washington and Jefferson, and the Roosevelts... animal killer Teddy and Oppenheimer supporting Frank) Trump may not only prevail atop the ticket but carry veto-proof majorities in Congress with him.

(There could and should be a fourth issue as perhaps may be called “cultural”... the issue of climate, mostly ignored in the Republican drawdowns.  After the deep freezes and snowstorms, the cry: “Drill, baby, drill” does not seem so irresponsible to kitchen tablers looking over their heating bills and, come summer, the inevitably rising temperatures will keep fans and air conditioners humming.  But Pickle John is no longer around; the new Climate Czar is... somebody... and both parties remember what happened to Jimmy Carter after he proposed conservation.)

 

TIME..

On Saturday, Jennifer Rubin of the WashPost theorized that “Gen Z might be the MAGA movement’s undoing,” citing numerous instances where millenials hold more liberal views than their parents or grandparents and drawing from a poll from the Public Religion Research Institute that concluded “Gen Z will favor a progressive message that incorporates diversity and opposes government imposition of religious views.”  And the younger, the more liberal on affirmative action, forgiveness of student debt (duh!), abortion, climate and... as might be expected from a Bezos Girl... the promise (absent the perils, as Congress has taken note) of high tech, AI and social media.  (1/28, Attachment Thirty Two)

But demographics also hinders Democrats in that even younger voters are worried about President Joe’s age and perceptions of infirmity.  Haley tried to balance this out by harping on Trump’s “senior moments”, but the queasy feeling that, between 77 year old Donnie and 81 year old Joe, America is sliding down the hill the way the Soviet Union did after Khruschev when one ancient dictator after another let that entity slide until it was finally overthrown.  America, to its credit (if not, perhaps, brute wisdom), did not nuke, invade, nor seize command of the Russian ruins, but let them stumble on through Gorbachev, tipsy Boris and onward to Mad Vlad and his obsession (if not wholly successful) in restoring the Bear’s military (if not economic) fortunes.

“There are also some warning signs for Democrats seeking the votes of those who distrust older generations and are skeptical of voting,” Rubin advises her presumably sympathetic readership. “Democrats might want to tweak their message accordingly,” lest youth look at those two old men pandering for their votes and decide to stay home and vape.

Black voters, particularly the younger men, are disattaching themselves from the donkey chains as have been making the demograph a reliable Democratic asset for generations.  “We know we can’t take any voters for granted, especially Black voters, young voters, who’ve been a crucial bloc for the Biden-Harris coalition,” said Michael Tyler, communications director for the campaign.  (WashPost 1/27, Attachment Thirty Three)

“There’s an assumption that because Donald Trump is Donald Trump, he’ll have zero support among Black voters. That couldn’t be further from the truth,” noted Leah Wright Rigueur, an associate professor of history at Johns Hopkins University. “Amongst a small subset of Black men, there is more of a willingness to entertain Republican overtures. And that is distinctly gendered. Black women are less likely to entertain it.”

“You hear ‘Biden is looking out for Latinos, Biden is looking out for Asians. They passed an anti-Asian hate bill, but where’s our legislation?’” asked Branden Snyder, executive director of Detroit Action.

And Trump, when in office, backed up his words with actions.  Rapper Kodak Black, who was among those offered clemency from weapons charges on Trump’s final day in office and recently endorsed the former president on the podcast “Drink Champs." 

In August, rapper YG , who famously wrote the song “F--- Donald Trump,” said on a podcast that the Black community “forgave” Trump after he rolled out the 2020 Paycheck Protection Program intended to help small businesses during the pandemic. The former president, he said, was “passing out money.”

 

CRIME... and

For now, Trump and the Republicans do own the issue of public safety and domestic security garnering a super-majority of white, often Evangelical voters as well as growing slices of minorities also concerned about safety.  Every school shooting, every robbery or murder, even every dognapping or smash and grab home and retail store invasion drives calls for more and tougher laws, more police and armed forces and less consideration for the excuses that lawbreakers bleat when they are caught.

The execution of Kenneth Smith by nitrogen is a bellweather of changes to come and next week’s lesson will tackle this in greater detail.  Frankly, a majority of Americans of all ages, races, genders and incomes, want to feel safe in their homes and on the streets and... if Trump has no specific plans for achieving this beyond deporting the immigrants “poisoning our blood”, the domestic bloodshed will counter many of the liberal arguments for a Bidenesque society.  Most may not yearn for a strongman, but do want a strong man as will back the blue, support first responders and... uh... obey the law themselves???

 

LAW and ORDER

Well, that last might be debatable.  The Super Tuesday elections come one day after the scheduled start of Trump’s trial in Washington on four felony charges related to his words and actions around the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol by a mob of his followers designed... first... to coerce then-Vice-President Mike Pence and Congress into awarding him a second term even though he had lost the 2020 election by a margin greater than could be disputable and then, when that failed, to hang them.  (See Attachments Three and Fifteen, as above)

Trump is claiming he cannot be prosecuted for any of those charges because he had “total immunity” while he was president. An appeals court is set to rule soon on that, which Trump will almost certainly take to the U.S. Supreme Court if the decision goes against him.

The delays caused by his appeals appear likely to delay the start of the trial, although it is unclear by how much.  More damaging to the law... and the donkeys... has been the revelation that Fulton county district attorney, Fani Willis, faces a series of imminent, critical choices that could upend her consequential case against the former president and 14 remaining co-defendants.

The Guardian, on Thursday (Attachment Thirty Four) reported that Michael Roman, a Trump co-defendant, filed a motion earlier this month seeking the disqualification of Willis and Nathan Wade, an outside lawyer hired by Willis in 2021 to assist with the Trump case. “In court filings, Roman alleged Willis and Wade were in a romantic relationship and Wade had used some of the more than $650,000 he earned from his work for her to pay for vacations for the two of them. Bank records made public last week showed Wade had paid for tickets for himself and Willis to California in 2023 and Miami in 2022.”

A disqualification would upend the case against Trump and significantly delay it. If the judge Scott McAfee were to disqualify Willis’s office from handling the case, the executive director of the Prosecuting Attorneys Council of Georgia would appoint a replacement. There’s no time limit on how long that could take. “It could entirely derail the entire enterprise,” said Anthony Michael Kreis, a law professor at Georgia State University who has closely followed the case.

“When is the Great State of Georgia dropping the FAKE LITIGATION against me and the others? ELECTION INTERFERENCE! The case is a FRAUD, just like D.A. Fani Willis and her ‘LOVER’,” Trump wrote in a post on his Truth Social platform on 20 January.  Others, including political moderates and/or disinterested parties do not believe the charges merit dropping the case, but delays are certain... and may continue long past Election Day.

The case is unique because it is the only instance in which a re-elected President Trump cannot pardon himself.  Thus, America faces the prospect of being under the governance of a man residing in a Georgia prison cell while the lonesome whistle blows and the Russians, Chinese, Iranians or whomever figure out how to turn a profit by the calamity.

Wallis, for her part, openly declared that she intends to play the race card. 

Stephen Gillers, a legal ethics expert at New York University, called the situation “...bad in every possible way.  (MAGAnauts excepted)  It’s not good for public confidence in this case, which is needed.”

 

and BORDER

Co-equal to the kitchen table issues... perhaps even superior to them in the minds of some MAGAnauts... is the crisis at the border (with its corollaries of race, crime and, as above, the econ-me).

Speaker Johnson has expressed “hope” if not faith, charity or clarity, on the possibility of a border security deal... although what it might look out is still cloudy. Governor Abbott has even told the hardliners that he will not order his Texas Rangers nor allow any upspringing vigilante forces to shoot the migrants, after getting blowback from liberals and even some moderates after women and children drowned under his wire fence in the Rio Grande.  Beset on the one side by Nikki’s needling that he was unable to complete that Great Wall during his administration and, on the other, by admissions of impotence by the likes of the Washington Post’s Eduardo Porter who editorialized... “Forget about securing the border. It won’t work...” on Thursday.

“Migration demands a different bargain today,” contended Porter.  “It, too, must be comprehensive. It must restore discipline to the asylum process, tightening rules to ensure it remains a viable option for people truly fleeing for their lives, pursued by a predatory state or organized crime. But it also must acknowledge that a large number of migrants are driven by broader pressures — such as hunger, climate change and a desire for opportunity. Hardening the border will not keep them out.  (1/18, Attachment Thirty Five – with its Peanut Gallery)

Compounding the issue is a legal standoff between state and Federal jurisdiction... as played out in Texas where the INS and DHA are fighting the installation of razor wire to slash migrants andallow some to drown (usually children).

While even Democrats in Texas, Arizona, California and the like are calling out for stronger enforcement, the Senate’s attempt to reach a bipartisan proposal has been vetoed, in advance, by Trump and by Speaker Mike Johnson, who says any legislation would be “dead on arrival” in the House... Democrats saying that Trump is masterminding the stalemate in order to exploit it as a campaign issue.

 

Which brings up the issue of...

 

THOSE FOREIGNERS

(... encompassing their leanings towards or against freedom and democracy and, of course, their wars – and the resulting solicitations for money to keep resisting the Russians, the terrorists and other “bad actors”)

The spotlight has been shining most brightly, and recently on...

“The MidEast” where the Israel-Hamas war has been, for the United States, slowly escalating to include Lebanon (Hezbollah), the West Bank (rogue elements of the moderate... by Islamic terroristic standards... Palestinian Authority) Yemen (where Houthi rebels supported by Iran have virtually cleansed the Red Sea of commercial shipping), Iraq and Syria (Iranian-backed insurrectionists, again) and, most recently, the once-stable Jordan where direct attacks killing American troops are causing parents to grieve, patriots to demand action (include taking the war to Iran itself, which Biden still resists), allies to worry, Russians and Chinese to celebrate and partisans to calculate... the perceived Democratic weakness matched by Republican confusion, dismay and denial.

Dissent is also building within Democrats over Biden’s alliance with Israel in its war against Hamas, “putting the president’s standing at risk in swing states like Michigan. A rally he held in northern Virginia on Tuesday to promote abortion rights—an issue his party sees as critical to success in November—was disrupted repeatedly by protests over U.S. military support for Israel. One person shouted “shame on you!”  (Time, Attachment Nine above)

While a majority of voters and politicians of both parties do support Israel, paying for the war is another matter.  Trump, in fact, has ordered House Republicans to reject a proposed omnibus border security and foreign military and humanitarian aid because... even conservatives admit... he wants to deny President Joe the issue to advance Himself.

Consequently, Israel is facing a multi-front war that is likely to soldier on as long as the Russian invasion of Ukraine, debilitating American power and prestige while harming both Israel and Gaza civilians and risking a Russian conquest of Kyev, as would launch a new war of aggression in Europe while China is stepping up cyberterror against the United States itself while pondering how and when to conquer Taiwan and move on to Korea, other states and, before attacking America itself, Japan.

There will be plenty of foreign policy questions for the standard-bearers to debate when the time comes... unless Trump gambles that choosing not to prolong the next Presidential showdown (and probably a few after March and before November) may aid his cause.

 

This melds with Administrational floundering over the military adventures of Russia in Ukraine and Hamas and Israel in the MidEast... in which funding for our “allies” has been held hostage to nebulous border talk at a time when attacks on shipping in the Red Sea and new moves by Iranian backed terror groups in Lebanon, Iraq and Syria are increasing the prospect of a wider war.  And just this week, the most dangerous development yet... fighting breaking out between a nuclear wannabe in Tehran and nuclear-armed Pakistan, which risks drawing China and India into the chaos.

 

FINALLY, BACK TO AMERICA’S KITCHEN TABLES...

And even if we make it into November, 2024 without apocalypse, most voters will be pounding the table over kitchen table domestic issues like the economy, equality, jobs, crime and the ability of the government to function at all. On Friday the Nineteenth, hours before the expiration of the last can-kick on a government shutdown... the one pumped by Trump, MAGA and the Freedom Caucus against the wizardry of Speaker Johnson (who had vowed that that would be the last), Johnson broke his vow and offered up another can kick that a desperate Congess accepted in lieu of resolution and which President Joe signed that afternoon.

Meaning more debt... and more demands from more Americans on how our tax and spend policy can be reformed so as to pay our bills coming out of a plague and into two wars and a shrinking but still excessive rate of inflation.

During their adventures in Iowa and New Hampshire, Trump, Haley and DeSantis were all adamant in averring that America must find the backbone and the wherewithal to pay its bills, and without raising taxes... expecially on their beloved billionaires.  But... barring an excellent or excruriating turn of events... the March can kicks will probably be extended again and again and again and November and beyond.

Haley, at least, ventured a tax and don’t spend policy that was promulgated in the Des Moines Register (Attachment Thirty Six) wherein she promised to “veto any bill that doesn’t get us back to pre-pandemic spending levels and end hundreds of billions in corporate bailouts and special-interest handouts.”

Whoda thunkitt?... a Socialist!!!

Further she threw a bottle of sulfuric acid over both parties, denouncing the “Democrats and Republicans (that) have been destroying America’s economy and finances for a long time” with their reckless spending is stifling our economy even as our military is falling behind and Communist China lurking as our politicians are “spending America toward defeat. We need a president who stops this madness. We have to win this struggle and keep the peace.”

“I speak hard truths,” spake Nikki, “and here’s a painful one. Republicans and Democrats are both to blame. Barack Obama and Joe Biden both loved to waste the American people’s money, but so did George W. Bush and Donald Trump. Everyone talks about the good economy under Trump — but at what cost? He put us $8 trillion in debt in just four years. Our kids will never forgive us for that.

“I’ll reform entitlements,” she promised, “the biggest drivers of our national debt, while protecting everyone who depends on Social Security and Medicare.”  Hmmm?

The New York Times, back on January 6th when there were still three aspirational elephants, begged to disagree... in that Social Security and Medicare are the government’s biggest entitlements.

“Social Security’s main trust fund is currently projected to be depleted in 2033, meaning the program would then be able to pay only about three-quarters of total scheduled benefits. Medicare, for its part, is at risk of not having enough money to fully pay hospitals by 2031,” warned the Times.  (Attachment Thirty Seven)

Fact-checking Biden (who dis-quoted Trump’s pledge to cut Social Security and Medicare in 2020), and Trump’s own pledge to protect them, unlike DeSantis (uttered in December... Saint Ron more recently said he’d leave present bennies alone, but raise the retirement age to seventy).  The Florida Guv, for his weasly part, said that Nikki had also claimed that the retirement age was “way, way too low” as American life expectancy declined... the Times explained that the statement came at the height of the plague and has since inched back up.

CNN, back on January 11th after it sponsored a debate, dodged by Trump of course, comparing the then-three candidates on creating a flat tax and/or eliminating the Federal gas tax and deduced that DeSantis and Haley were “being deliberately unspecific.”

All the candidates, including President Joe, have at least one thing in common: They want to extend at least some of the measures of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, which Trump championed and signed into law. The fate of individual income tax provisions will be a top priority of whoever wins the November election since they are set to expire at the end of next year.  (Attachment Thirty Eight)  Specifically...

DeSantis: The Florida governor voiced his support of a flat tax at CNN’s debate but said only “if people are better off than they are now.”

Asked at the debate whether working families would pay the same rate as billionaires, DeSantis said that “working-class people” would pay no tax – referencing people who make $40,000 or $50,000. Then it would be a single rate after that level.

“We’re going to eliminate the federal gas and diesel tax in this country and cut taxes on the middle class and simplify those brackets,” Haley said.

In addition, Haley supports eliminating $500 billion in green energy subsidies in the Inflation Reduction Act, which Democrats pushed through Congress in 2022. And she would reconsider the state and local tax deduction, which allows taxpayers to deduct a portion of their state and local income, general sales and property taxes from their federal income taxes.

Trump: Among the former president’s most notable tax proposals is his desire to place a “universal baseline tariff of 10% on all US imports.”  He has also talked about “reducing the corporate tax rate from the current 21% to 15%.”

Biden, on the other hand says he supports raising taxes on corporations and higher-income Americans but “would protect those earning less than $400,000 annually.”

 

Nikki is going, going, going and Saint Ron is Gone... and that leaves what Karen Tumulty of the WashPost calls a “long, grim rematch”

“The slog between now and November will be long and grim and bitter.”  (Attachment Thirty Nine)

Though although only two small states have voted, “Trump’s domination of the Republican Party appears complete. Its establishment has rapidly closed ranks behind him — something that would have been hard to imagine in the wake of the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol by Trump supporters who were trying to overturn his reelection defeat.”

So, contendsd Margaret Sullivan of the even more liberal, thus terrified, Guardian U.K., “(w)e must start urgently talking about the dangers of a second Trump presidency.”  (Attachment Forty)

The question is whether American democracy will endure and, to put it bluntly, she wrote “not if Trump is elected.”

“He’ll prosecute his perceived enemies with the full power of the government. He’ll call out the military to put down citizen protest. He’ll never allow a fair election again.”

And he’ll send MAGA-hatted God’s Army vigilantes into your home to kick your dog.

How do Americans resist?

Liberals Sullivan interviewed suggest reading books like the “nearly 1,000 page” Project 2025 from the Heritage Foundation.

 

Well then, could a Saviour already be among us? 

And, if so, who?

"Celebrity power in elections has grown because celebrity power itself has grown," communications consultant James Haggerty told Newsweek – which voiced its choice yesterday morning at the peep o’dawn. "Media and social media are now the central organizing framework of many Americans' lives. And in a world awash in messages, it's the celebrity voices that really resonate."  (Attachment Forty One)

"In a world where a reality show star can become president—and maybe become president twice—all of this makes perfect sense," he added, referring to Donald Trump, who co-produced and hosted The Apprentice for almost a decade before his first presidential run.

Could it be Magic Mike?  No... Matthew McConaughy blew it by passing up the opportunity to take out the bacterial Texas Governor, Greg Abbott.

Oprah?  She wouldn’t take the pay cut and the Kardashians are still too close to Djonald UnChained.  Elon Musk is Canadian.  Barbie is from a movie... and so is Batman.

Charles Osgood just died.  Others are too old, too young or too compromised to compete... except...

Newsweek's poll found that an endorsement from Taylor Swift would have the greatest impact on younger voters. Roughly 3 in 10 Americans under 35 said they'd be more likely to vote for a candidate backed by Swift.

Media consultant Brad Adgate agreed. "Swift is in the class by herself," he told Newsweek.

“There is a long history of pop culture figures backing politicians. Frank Sinatra and his Rat Pack pals famously cheered on John F. Kennedy's campaign. (Then they defected when RFK Senior started rounding up Frank’s “family” bros.)  Willie Nelson had a close relationship with Jimmy Carter both before and after his presidency. And Jimmy Stewart, Charlton Heston and Cary Grant were all vocal supporters of Ronald Reagan.

“Oprah Winfrey's endorsement of Barack Obama's 2008 campaign was one of the most widely covered developments in that election cycle, and economists estimated that her support was worth over a million votes in the Democratic primary race.”

A 2024 endorsement would not be the first time Swift has weighed in on political races. Although she's largely stayed out of politics, she endorsed two Democratic candidates for Congress in Tennessee (one won, the other lost).

Still only thirty four, Swift could not run for the job herself but... according to Adgate... "She'd be best to do a public service announcement that tells people, 'If you don't like the way things are going or are afraid of what's going to happen, register to vote," Adgate said.

And politics is a reality show, after all!

 

 

 

Our Lesson: January Twenty Second through Twenty Eighth, 2024

 

Monday, January 22, 2024

Dow:  38,001.81

With the New Hampshire primary up tomorrow, Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-Fl) pulls the plug on himself despite finishing second in Iowa and being widely regarded as Donald Trump’s most formidable challenger.  This leaves former Governor and Ambassador Nikki Haley as his sole competition and he says: “We cannot go back to the Old Republicanism she represents,” and revisits the birther lies he told about Obama to take a 50-39% lead in polls.  With St. Ron, about $150M of donor class dollars go up in smoke.

   The weather in Maine won’t be as bad as in Iowa, but bad enough... storms still sweep across the country, bringing blizzards or floods that freeze into the Black Ice causing highway carnage.  Six feet of snow shuffle off to Buffalo.

   Iranian-backed militants in Iraq shell a US Army base, killing nobody but woundind dozens with brain trauma.  Houthi pirates continue to plague Red Sea shipping, many vessels just leave, rending the supply chain and two Navy Seals are lost at sea.  The wars in Gaza and Ukraine go on and so does the Republican resistance to providing more American aid without some vague migration control legislation.

   But the good news is that the shutdown “continuing resolution” can-kick sends the Dow up over the 38,000 mark – highest ever!  And inspirational 20 year old golfer Nick Dunlap becomes the first amateur in decades to win a PGA event.  Bad news?  As an amateur, he can’t collect the $1.5M prize, which goes to runner-up Christiaan Bezuidenhout.  (Dunlap turned pro four days later.)

 

Tuesday, January 23, 2024

Dow:  37,905.49

Polls open at midnight in Dixville Notch, NH where the traditional first voting gives Haley a 6-0 lead over Trump.  It doesn’t last.  Djonald UnBeaten (so far in 2024) rallies and takes a 56-43% triumph, beating the spread most believed would spell the end of the primary season.  Haley refuses to drop out, but her chances (say the many mediots cited hereabouts) range from bleak to grim.  Write-ins carry President Joe to victory over Dean Phillips and Marianne Williamson.

   Also rallying, Hamas kills 21 Israeli soldiers in RPG attack which only makes them angrier and provokes retaliation against civilians, whose death toll tops 25,000.  Humanitarians plead impotenly.

   The US East begins to warm up out of its deep freeze, but more storms pound the West.  San Diego endures a record rainfall.  First responders rescue dozens by boat as homes and cars are swept away.  Even further west the Marshall Islands are hit by “extreme” waves that demolish American military installations and remind a sleeping or distracted world that climate change is real.

   Real, too is “Oppenheimer” which garners 13 Oscar nominations while its consort, “Barbie” earns snubs for lead Margot Robbie and director Greta Gerwig (but sympathy from Hillary Clinton).

 

Wednesday, January 24, 2024

Dow:  37,806.31

A pair of midnight pundits howl under the Wolf Moon – GOP emeritus Reince Priebus says its over and the November contest will depend on seven states (others say only five).  Dejected Democrat Donna Brazile suggests that Nikki go home and talk to her family about her future since a vengeful Trump won’t even throw her a bone if/when he wins.  DeSantis crawls to Djonald, wags his tail, so do Tim Scott, Vivek and the other losers.  “Pathetic!”

   Trump denies that he’s either a madman or a mad man after Haley condemns his “angry rant” instead of the usual victory self-congratulations.  “I don’t get mad, I get even,” responds Ol’ 45, as “experts” predict that Nikki will keep running until she runs out of money.  The early South Carolina polling shows that she’s losing by a whopping 52-22%.

   President Joe attends to his day job, promoting legislation that will restrict Internet usage for children under 15 who, doctors say, are “addicted” to their devices.  And he does a little counter-campaigning, securing the endorsement of the United Auto Workers.

    

 

Thursday, January 25, 2024

Dow:  37,906.13

Flooding rains ooze eastward out of California and stain the plains of the Midwest with washed away cars and homes, ruined crops and beleaguered cops rescuing humans and animals. 

    Trump goes back to New York City as the putative nominee to face the music and the justice system in the E. Jean Caroll case where he rises to testify to the horror of his lawyers, delivers a three minute campaign speech and then walks out, snarling: U.S. District Judge Lewis A. Kaplan then threatened to jail Trump’s lawyers. Including Roberta (no relation) Kaplan.

   States are taking action to ban or limit social media for kids, with advocates calling the likes of TikTok “digital fentanyl.”  (From China, no less!)  Speaking of medications, Robitussen is recalled for having gone bacterial and Mister Mucus celebrates.

 

Friday, January 26, 2024

Dow:  38.109.43

Kenneth Smith executed by nitrogen in Alabama.  Authorities say it went well,  Critics say he was “shaking and writhing” but tied down and gagged by the mask. “He was trying to hold his breath.”  His last words: “Tonight, Alabama has caused humanity to take a step backward.”

   The days and days of bad weather stretch into weeks and weeks,  Today it’s fog – planes and automobiles are grounded from Bismarck to Baltimore while trains in the West are stalled due to landslides.

   E. Jean Carroll raises her demand for Tr ump swag to $10M for calling her bad nams: her lawyers ask for $21M but the judge grants her $83M.  Years of appeals loom,  Trump’s retribution is to tell Congress to kill all aid to Israel and Ukraine by cancelling negotiations on border policy.  “He finds a way to enter Himself into everything!” the Democrats say.

   SecTreas Janet Yellin says that the December GDP exceeded expectations and, all in all, 2023’s economy grew at a “good, health pace.”  Microsoft became the world’s second $1T company and the Dow was up, but Don Jones had to cope with rising inflation on food and rents.

 

Saturday, January 27, 2024

Dow:  Closed

Perhaps worried by the prospect of painful executions, alleged and convicted killers try to get their guilty findings invalidated by technicalities: Kenneth Murdaugh because his attorney tweaked jurors to write a book about the trial, Scott Petersen because evidence was fishy, Brian Kohberger because the Idaho jury might revolt at the prospect of months or years of sequestration during trial and Alec Baldwin because... well, he’s famous.

   Lawyers are scrambling to sign up airline passengers injured or inconvenienced by all of the accidents lately; Boeing CEO says, of defective door bolts, nose wheels and such: “We own this issues!” and orders his COO to ride on the next plane out, just to show confidence. 

   Rasslin’ promoter Vince McMahon fired from WWE for practicing Vice McManning a female unconsenting employee.  Other criminals cut off a statue of Jackie Robinson at the ankles and haul it away while tourists are warned not to go to the Bahamas because robbers and gangsters are slaughtering tourists.  Also, a shark in a theme park eats a 10 year old boy.

 

Sunday, January 28, 2024

Dow: Closed

The Senate reaches a bipartisan border agreement, but Trump’s orders to the House to kill everything so people will blame President Joe and elect Him in November leaves the Ukes and Israelis hanging. So the latter just do the best they can do at doing what they do best – kill as many Palestinians as they can.  Interim DefSec C. Q. Brown gives his first press conference and says America doesn’t want a wider war, so Iran expands the war to Jordan by firing missiles that kill three and wound dozens.  Suckas!

   While DefSec Brown dithers, Congress begins impeachment of DHS Chief Mayorkas and AgSec Vilsack starts up a proposal to offer poor children healthy school lunches at 30 or 40¢ a plate, but some states tell the Feds to forget it and just let ‘em starve on Twinkies.  Gov. Abbott (R-Tx) defies even Trump’s SCOTUS by bringing back the Rio Grand razor wire, saying: “We have more wire than they have wire cutters.”  More migrant kids drown.

   On the Sunday talkshows, Djonald’s challenger turned Chihuahua, Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC) dismisses concern about all of His Master’s legal issues, citing Hunter’s tax and gun citations.  (ABC)  CBS devotes its Sunday newscast to remenberng Charles Osgood while voter profilers every dig up Trump lovers who say they are voting for him “because he hugged the American flag” and Trump haters who warn that he will “take back control” of the liberal media. 

   The Super Bowl is set as San Francisco comes from behind to beat Detroit while Kansas City tops Baltimore.  Travis Kelce scores a touchdown and Taylor rewards him with... a kiss.

 

Many, many jerks went back to work, or tried to find jobs, or sat on their couches and watched the playoffs.  With the labor force growing, migration becomes more of a minus, but that didn’t stop the partisans from colluding to wreck the economy and, perhaps, democracy by holding other critical issues hostile to their way, even when even they don’t know what that is except Gov. Abbot who takes a Texas tip from the town of Cut and Shoot... except that he’s not shooting yet, just cutting them with razor wire and drowning the children.

 

 

THE DON JONES INDEX

 

CHART of CATEGORIES w/VALUE ADDED to EQUAL BASELINE of 15,000

(REFLECTING… approximately… DOW JONES INDEX of June 27, 2013)

 

Negative/harmful indices in RED.  See a further explanation of categories here…

 

ECONOMIC INDICES (60%)

 

CATEGORY

VALUE

BASE

RESULTS

SCORE

OUR SOURCES and COMMENTS

INCOME

(24%)

6/17/13 & 1/1/22

LAST

CHANGE

NEXT

LAST WEEK

THIS WEEK

Wages (hrly. Per cap)

9%

1350 points

1/22/24

 +0.41%

2/24

1,483.24

1,483.24

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/wages   29.42

Median Inc. (yearly)

4%

600

1/22/24

 +0.25%

2/5/24

667.14

667.31

http://www.usdebtclock.org/   39,349

Unempl. (BLS – in mi)

4%

600

1/22/24

  -5.41%

2/24

616.55

616.55

http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000000/    3.7 NC

Official (DC – in mi)

2%

300

1/22/24

 +0.64%

2/5/24

249.32

250.93

http://www.usdebtclock.org/      6,361

Unofficl. (DC – in mi)

2%

300

1/22/24

  -2.02%

2/5/24

288.84

283.01

http://www.usdebtclock.org/      11,696

Workforce Particip.

   Number

   Percent

2%

300

1/22/24

 

+0.134%

+0.271%

2/5/24

304.48

303.66

In 162,651 Out 100,712 Total: 262,363

http://www.usdebtclock.org/   61.99

WP %  (ycharts)*

1%

150

1/22/24

 -0.48%

2/24

150.95

150.95

https://ycharts.com/indicators/labor_force_participation_rate  62.50

OUTGO

15%

 

 

 

Total Inflation

7%

1050

2/24

+0.3%

2/24

970.22

970.22

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm     +0.3

Food

2%

300

2/24

+0.2%

2/24

274.07

274.07

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm     +0.2

Gasoline

2%

300

2/24

+0.2%

2/24

246.55

246.55

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm     +0.2

Medical Costs

2%

300

2/24

+0.7%

2/24

291.95

291.95

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm     +0.7

Shelter

2%

300

2/24

+0.5%

2/24

267.85

267.85

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm     +0.5

 

WEALTH

6%

 

 

Dow Jones Index

2%

300

1/22/24

 +0.72%

2/5/24

312.63

314.88

https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/   38,109.43

Home (Sales)

(Valuation)

1%

1%

150

150

1/22/24

  -1.06%

  -1.29%

2/24

123.97

279.71

122.66

276.10

https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics  nc

Sales (M):  3.78  Valuations (K):  382.6

Debt (Personal)

2%

300

1/22/24

 +0.31%

2/5/24

269.46

268.64

http://www.usdebtclock.org/    75,393

NATIONAL

(10%)

 

Revenue (trilns.)

2%

300

1/22/24

 +0.24%

2/5/24

392.94

393.88

debtclock.org/       4,633

Expenditures (tr.)

2%

300

1/22/24

  -0.23%

2/5/24

322.46

321.70

debtclock.org/       6,389

National Debt tr.)

3%

450

1/22/24

 +0.28%

2/5/24

395.49

394.40

http://www.usdebtclock.org/    34,144

(The debt ceiling... presumably now kicked forward to March... had been 31.4 before the first of several punts; having risen to slightly below 34 as of New Years’ Day.  See next week’s Lesson for more on the next can kick... Speaker Johnson’s first.)

Aggregate Debt (tr.)

3%

450

1/22/24

 +0.054%

2/5/24

407.97

407.75

http://www.usdebtclock.org/    97,520

 

 

 

 

GLOBAL

(5%)

 

Foreign Debt (tr.)

2%

300

1/22/24

+0.0105%

2/5/24

323.34

323.00

http://www.usdebtclock.org/   7,627

Exports (in billions)

1%

150

1/24

  -1.97%

2/24

157.57

157.57

https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/current/index.html  253.7

Imports (bl.)

1%

150

1/24

 +1.92%

2/24

172.86

172.86

https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/current/index.html  316.9

Trade Deficit (bl.)

1%

150

1/24

 +2.06% 

2/24

332.56

332.56

https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/current/index.html    63.2

 

 

 

SOCIAL INDICES  (40%)

ACTS of MAN

12%

 

 

World Affairs

3%

450

1/22/24

+0.1%

2/5/24

458.35

458.81

Critical elections in Finland, Venezuela, Tuvalu, Indonesia and China.  French court dismisses sex crime against iconic Gallic actor Gerard Depardieu.  Also over there, Sweden applies to join NATO over culinary objections from Hungary and Turkey;  “activists” throw soup on the Mona Lisa while Saudi Arabia opens its first liquor store.  Fear of “eh?” inspires Republicans to close the Canadian border,

War and terrorism

2%

300

1/22/24

-0.5%

2/5/24

297.24

295.75

Iran and its creatures on a rampage – striking US military bases in Iraq and Jorden, sponsoring Red Sea Houthi pirates and what remains of Hamas while the Ukraine war grinds on; Russia, like Iran, is buoyed by cheap Congressthings putting domestic politics above global democracy. 3 Americans killed in Jordanian attack, two Navy SEALS lost off the coast of  Yemen.  Hostage families storm Israeli parliament.

Politics

3%

450

1/22/24

-0.1%

2/5/24

481.39

480.91

Nikki Haley gets off to a rousing New Hampshire start, sweeping midnight reporting Dixville Notch.  Then it goes South and she flees to homestate South Carolina.  Trump hugs the American flag and deep fake pix show President Joe campaigning under a Russian flag.  (Consistancy would have dictated Chinese.)  Impeacherers focus on Sec.

Mayorkas (DHS) while keeping up their crusade against Hunter’s Daddy.

Economics

3%

450

1/22/24

+0.2%

2/5/24

444.13

445.02

Kyte baby clothing boycotted for firing nursing Mom working from home.  In and Out burgers Outing some franchises.  But Chipotle is hiring 16K new workers and offering bennies including “counseling”.  Teachers’ strike in second week in Massachusetts has working mothers scrambling for babysitters but Cal. professors settle professionally.

Crime

1%

150

1/22/24

-0.2%

2/5/24

242.83

242.34

Authorities call credit apps like Venmo infiltrated by criminals.   Pagaent queen accused of murdering 18 month old.  Crime waves crash over the Bahamas (above) and so do shark attacks.

ACTS of GOD

(6%)

 

 

Environment/Weather

3%

450

1/22/24

-0.2%

2/5/24

391.08

390.30

Misery manifests as milder temperatures bring rain which freezes into black ice when the mercury drops, flooding to New Jersey, landslides to California.  Wind and fog and tornadoes visit here and there while roller coaster termperaturs roll up again.  It’s 80° in Washington and Minnesota’s iconic Ice Palace is melting.

Disasters

3%

450

1/22/24

+0.1%

2/5/24

422.11

422.53

“Extreme waves” level U.S. base in sinkng Marshall Is. and flood Baltimore for NFL playoffs – the Ravens play, but lose.  Russian plane crash kills 65 Uke POWs.  Accident?  New London, CT church collapses just like Notre Dame, also no casualties, like ND.   New York dancer dies after eating cookies containing unlisted peanuts.

LIFESTYLE/JUSTICE INDEX

(15%)

 

Science, Tech, Educ.

4%

600

1/22/24

+0.3%

2/5/24

630.87

632.76

Amazon to request warrants for police confiscation of doorbell camera data.  Experts warn that AI “deep fakes” disseminate fake porno pix of Taylor Swift and could be used in the November election.  Astronomers discover “dark galaxies” with no stars, just supporting satellites.   Scientists announced the world’s first successful embryo transfer in an endangered white rhino.

Equality (econ/social)

4%

600

1/22/24

+0.2%

2/5/24

638.09

639.36

Woman prosecuted for having a miscarriage the day after her 22nd week of pregnancy per Ohio law.  Lily Gladstone (“Killers of the Flower Moon”) wins first Best Actress trophy for a Native American woman; Atlanta Falcons hire Reheem Morris as first black NFL head coach.

Health

4%

600

1/22/24

-0.2%

2/5/24

469.16

468.22

King Charles heads to hospital for prostate problems, there he visits Princess Kate, in for tummy troubles.  Alzheimers researchers tell old folks to take multivitamins.  FDA calls teenage vaping “a crisis”.  FDA calls it “an epidemic”.  (DJI calls it “stupid hipster posing”).  KIA recalls 100K bad cars, Ford trumps them with 2M.

Freedom and Justice

3%

450

1/22/24

-0.2%

2/5/24

470.09

469.15

Current criminal defendants include school shooter Ethan Crumbly’s mommy, Trump Georgia prosecutor Fani Willis (who plays the race card) and his adviser Peter Navarro (four months for contempt of Congress).  Accused and convicted killers seek freedom on technical grounds so they can be released to your neighborhood... Alec Murdaugh (jury contamination), Scott Peterson (mystery witnesses), mass killer Brian Kohberger in Idaho (unspeedy trial), also in Texas and, as above, Alec Baldwin.  Hungry civil lawyers brawl for airline passengers and, dreaming of Ms. Carrol’s near 100M rakeoff, any public person whose feeling were hurt by mean tweets.  Git’ ‘em, Taylor!

MISCELLANEOUS and TRANSIENT INDEX

(6%)

 

 

 

Cultural incidents

3%

450

1/22/24

-0.1%

2/5/24

518.46

517.94

Official: it’s SF and KC in Superbowl 58.  Amateur Nick Dunlap wins PGA tour event and is bilked out of million dollar payout.  Stanford coach Tara Van de Vere wins record women’s NCAA b-ball title.  Coco Gauff and Djokovic ousted from Australian Open by forces of evil, namely Jannik Sinner, eventual men’s winner. “Oppenheimer” busts Barbie with 13 Oscar nominations followed by ”Flower Moon”and “Mean Girls” sequel wins at the box office.  Jon Stewart to return to nightly “Daily Show” and take on the cancel culture.

   The Reaper is off to a great, grim 2004,  RIP director Norman Jewison “Fiddler”; Newsman Charles Osgood (above) Dexter King, son of Martin Luther; actor Gary Graham (“Star Trek”) singers Mary Weiss (“Leader of the Pack”) and Melanie (“Brand New Key”), actor/singer Bill Hayes (“Ballad of Davy Crockett”), Georgia bulldog mascot UGA; and two Mars probes... a long term American rover that ran out of gas (or whatever fuel) and the Japanese model which just falls over on its side and weeps.

Misc. Incidents

3%

450

1/22/24

 +0.2%

2/5/24

503.45

504.46

Inspirational little girl saved from burning car 28 years ago becomes a police officer, sworn in by her rescuer.  Expirational family dog killed by bad babysitter while camels and zebras escape Indiana circus truck crash.   “Icon of the Seas”, world’s largest cruise ship, set sail.  (Beward of icebergs!)  Coaches’ carrousel includes #! Michigan’s Jim Harbaugh moving on up to the LA Chargers, and Morris (see above).

 

 

The Don Jones Index for the week of January 22nd through 28th, 2024 was DOWN 11.60 points

 

The Don Jones Index is sponsored by the Coalition for a New Consensus: retired Congressman and Independent Presidential candidate Jack “Catfish” Parnell, Chairman; Brian Doohan, Administrator.  The CNC denies, emphatically, allegations that the organization, as well as any of its officers (including former Congressman Parnell, environmentalist/America-Firster Austin Tillerman and cosmetics CEO Rayna Finch) and references to Parnell’s works, “Entropy and Renaissance” and “The Coming Kill-Off” are fictitious or, at best, mere pawns in the web-serial “Black Helicopters” – and promise swift, effective legal action against parties promulgating this and/or other such slanders.

Comments, complaints, donations (especially SUPERPAC donations) always welcome at feedme@generisis.com or: speak@donjonesindex.com.

 

 

ATTACHMENT ONE – FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER

THREE SCENARIOS FOR NEW HAMPSHIRE: CAN TRUMP BE STOPPED?

By W. James Antle III   January 23, 2024 6:21 am

 

The New Hampshire primary may be the political equivalent of Groundhog Day.

If we see a strong showing from former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley, we will have several more weeks of a competitive campaign season.

But if former President Donald Trump dominates the proceedings Tuesday night, she will have difficulty escaping his shadow.

Haley finally got the two-way race she long coveted when Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) ended his campaign on Sunday. But if many of those votes go to Trump, she may wish he had stayed in a week longer.

ELECTION 2024: FOLLOW LATEST COVERAGE

Here are a few possible outcomes we could see as the results roll in Tuesday night.

Haley wins

Trump’s sole major challenger for the nomination has one dream scenario: a showing strong enough to give her momentum going into her home state of South Carolina, where she served as governor, with a month to eat away at the former president’s lead.

By the time former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie suspended his campaign, Haley had closed to within single digits of Trump in at least one reputable Granite State poll and a lower-rated one. Many of Christie’s Never Trump supporters were likely to gravitate toward Haley, in addition to voters unaffiliated with either party who are eligible to vote in the GOP primary.

The most recent polls have been more discouraging. Trump has been at 50% or more in the last seven aggregated by RealClearPolitics and hovering around 60% in the last three.

Haley has to hope these pollsters are undercounting her support among independents, who have delivered victory to similarly situated candidates before. In 2000, George W. Bush won the Iowa caucuses by nearly 11 points and then lost New Hampshire to John McCain by 18.

At this point, a first-place showing by Haley would be an upset. McCain 2000 plus recent polling uncertainty would give her some reason for optimism.

Haley wins the expectations game  aka “spread” of 10 pts -dji

In the last few days, Haley has stopped short of predicting victory. Instead she says she hopes to get “close” to Trump. What would that look like? Haley has said she just wants to do better than she did in Iowa.

Haley placed third in Iowa. In a functionally two-person race, she seems all but certain to finish better than that. She also got 19.1% of the vote in the caucuses. She’d have to underperform her New Hampshire poll numbers significantly, which are consistently in the mid-to-high 30s, not to accomplish that goal as well.

Haley tried to play the expectations game in Iowa as well, where no one expected her to win. But she did surpass DeSantis for second place in the late Iowa polls, so her third-place finish was disappointing.

This time around, the polls are moving against Haley. So she could do better than expected even if she does not win. Twenty-four percent would be better than she did in Iowa, but probably not enough to generate any buzz. But if she breaks 40%, that might plausibly be spun as a moral victory. 

Haley’s supporters are already arguing that Trump’s quasi-incumbent status makes any significant anti-Trump vote unacceptable, including in a caucus he won by a record 30 points. Trump is leading in New Hampshire by 18.2 points, according to the RealClearPolitics polling average.

“At 50 percent, it’s crystal clear that Trump doesn’t have this primary or the party sewn up like he claims,” Mark Harris, the lead strategist for a pro-Haley super PAC, wrote in a Monday memo. Trump won 51% in Iowa and is at 54.9% in the New Hampshire RealClearPolitics polling average.

Trump wins New Hampshire in march to the nomination

The endorsements have started piling up for Trump because Republicans believe the race is getting close to the end or over already. If the latest New Hampshire polls are right, it will be difficult for Haley or anyone else to push back against this narrative.

WHDH TV and Emerson College found Trump beating Haley 53% to 37%, with DeSantis still in the race taking 10%. The Washington Post and Monmouth show Trump leading 52% to 34%, with DeSantis at 8%.

In a two-way race, the latest Boston Globe-Suffolk poll has Trump defeating Haley 57% to 38%. Trafalgar pegs Trump at 58%, InsiderAdvantage 62%. Haley is still hovering around the 40% that could keep her viable. But Trump could also be approaching his national poll numbers, which stand at 66.1% in the RealClearPolitics average. And achieving these results would show he can win comfortably without a crowded field.

Trump is heavily favored in South Carolina, a fact Haley would like to do well enough in New Hampshire to change, and is the only active candidate on the Nevada caucus ballot. Haley is also the only candidate still running who appears on the Nevada primary ballot, but that contest awards no delegates.

New Hampshire could be the last shot to ensure a truly competitive GOP nomination fight.

 

ATTACHMENT TWO – FROM

A2 X56 FROM AL JAZEERA

Nikki Haley vs Donald Trump: Why the New Hampshire primary matters

New Hampshire could present Haley with her best chance to beat Trump by building support among unregistered voters.

ration 02 minutes 08 seconds02:08

By Sarah Shamim

Published On 23 Jan 202423 Jan 2024

Republican contender Nikki Haley hopes to challenge former US President Donald Trump’s frontrunner status as the party’s nominee in the 2024 election as voters in New Hampshire head to polling stations on Tuesday, kicking off the year’s primary election calendar.

Trump is going into the primary as the favourite after scoring a resounding victory in last week’s Iowa caucus. New Hampshire is holding the first primary of the 2024 election calendar, with Republican, Democratic as well as independent voters set to exercise their ballots to decide their candidate for the presidential election due in November.

Could the New Hampshire primary be Haley’s last stand against Trump?

US Senator Tim Scott endorses Trump for president in blow to Nikki Haley

Ron DeSantis drops out of US presidential race, endorses Trump

New Hampshire primaries: A muted ‘circus’ with Biden missing from ballot

Incumbent President Joe Biden, who finished fifth in the 2020 New Hampshire primary, has decided to skip this year. His supporters can still vote for him by writing in his name on the ballot.

Here is what you need to know about the New Hampshire primary — and why it matters.

When is the New Hampshire primary and how does it work?

Registered Republicans and Democrats can vote in their respective primaries. Independent voters can also cast their vote in New Hampshire by requesting for either ballot. Delegates elected in primaries, which are organised by political parties, vote in the respective party convention to choose their presidential candidate.

Voters will have from about 7am to 7pm ET (12:00 GMT to 00:00 GMT) to cast their private ballot at their polling station. Polling stations include town halls and school campuses all over the state, based on the voters’ cities and streets of residence. The last polls in the state close at 8pm ET (01:00 GMT).

Those eligible to cast their ballot in the primary include voters who would be 18 years old by the November election.

Results could be released as early as Tuesday night. However, there could be delays for several reasons, including that Democratic voters have to write in Biden’s name on the ballot.

Is Haley leading the polls in New Hampshire?

No, Trump is still leading the polls by a wide margin over Haley.

According to polling and analysis website 538, Trump leads the Republican field in New Hampshire, with an average of 52 percent of likely primary voters planning to cast a ballot for the former president. Haley is in second with nearly 37 percent support.

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, who dropped out of the race on Sunday, had about 5 percent of support according to polls. He has since endorsed Trump, and if his supporters vote for Trump, that could further strengthen the chances of the real estate developer-turned-politician.

Polls have shown DeSantis’s supporters are more likely to switch their support to Trump than Haley. Still, DeSantis’s exit does open up an opportunity for Haley, a former US ambassador to the United Nations, to try to tap his voters who want to turn the page on Trump and install a new generation of leadership.

The state offers Haley an opportunity to position herself as a Republican candidate who could take on Trump since New Hampshire’s conservative voters lean more moderate than in many other parts of the country. She is also endorsed by New Hampshire Governor Chris Sununu.

Since unregistered voters can participate, Haley can also tap into the voter base that wishes to vote for a centrist candidate. Independent or unaffiliated voters make up 39 percent of the voters in New Hampshire.

What would a win mean for Trump or Haley?

While the primary will provide Trump with an opportunity to underscore his dominance of the  Republican race, it also gives challenger Haley a shot to show that Trump can be vulnerable.

If Haley wins, she could proceed to the South Carolina primary as a viable Trump alternative, making the argument to the Republican voter base that she represents the future of the party and Trump the past.

The contest between Trump and Haley is expected to be closer than the result in Iowa last week. Trump beat Haley, and DeSantis, by 30 percentage points in the state’s caucuses.

Why is Biden not on the ballot?

The US president did not register for the primary after New Hampshire lawmakers refused the Democratic Party’s demand that the state cede its first-in-the-nation spot in the presidential primary calendar.

In February 2023, the Democratic National Committee (DNC) opted to have South Carolina as the venue for its first primary scheduled for February 24, breaking a 100-year tradition of New Hampshire being the first state for primaries. South Carolina is the state where Biden turned around his 2020 campaign, after early losses in Iowa and New Hampshire, to eventually emerge as the party’s nominee.

Biden can still win the New Hampshire primary if his write-in votes exceed the registered candidates’ votes.

Despite inconsistent polling, it is clear that Biden leads the Democratic polls. Jim Demers, one of the organisers of the Biden write-in campaign said he has seen polls that range from less than 50 percent to 60 percent of the vote for Biden, who has angered Democrats in New Hampshire after he decided to opt out of the primary.

New Hampshire presents an opportunity for Biden’s Democrat challengers to prove there is an appetite among voters to replace the party’s incumbent.

Which Democrats and Republicans are expected on the ballot?

Republicans: There are 24 names on the ballot, but Trump remains the most popular, followed by Haley. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is also on the ballot, though he ended his 2024 campaign, endorsing Trump on Sunday. Names of other candidates who have dropped out are also on the ballot, including Chris Christie, Asa Hutchinson, and Vivek Ramaswamy.

Democrats: There are 21 names are on the ballot, including US Representative Dean Phillips of Minnesota and self-help guru Marianne Williamson.

What’s at stake?

After the Democratic National Committee (DNC) announced that the New Hampshire primary will not count and the delegates will not be claimed by the winner, the primary will serve purely as a barometer of support for the Democrats in the race. The state will send 33 delegates to the DNC, but their vote will not be bound by the primary results because of the dispute.

On the Republican side, 22 delegates to the Republican National Convention are up for grabs and will be awarded on a proportional basis.

This is not a large number considering 1,215 delegates are needed to clinch the nomination. Still, New Hampshire has traditionally played an outsize role in the nomination process because of its early spot on the calendar.

How is this different from the Iowa caucuses?

The New Hampshire event is just a primary election where voters have all day to cast their private ballot at their polling station. People can also vote by mail subject to conditions.

The event in Iowa, by contrast, was a meeting organised by parties where voters carried out discussions and had to show up at a particular time. No postal ballot is allowed in a caucus.

The Democrats did not cast their ballots at all in Iowa, but they are voting in New Hampshire.

 

ATTACHMENT  – FROM

THE NEW YORK TIMES

New Hampshire Republican Primary Election Results

WINNER 

Donald J. Trump wins the New Hampshire Republican primary.

Race called by The Associated Press.

Latest results from 10m ago

>95% OF VOTES IN 

Republican Primary race called

Candidate

Votes

PercentPct.

Chart showing percent

DelegatesDelegates

Donald J. Trump

174,800

+54.3%54.3%

12

Nikki Haley

139,383

+43.3%43.3

9

Ron DeSantis

2,251

+0.7%0.7

No delegates—

Total reported

321,721

+ Show all candidates

Republican Primary

95% of delegates allocated (21 of 22)

ManchesterDoverNashuaConcordManchesterDoverNashuaConcord

Trump

50

60

70

Haley

50

60

70

Tied

No results

Analysis from our reporters

New Hampshire delivered Trump a clear second win in the G.O.P. nomination contest. Follow our delegate tracker here. 16h ago

The reported results, which underrepresented Trump's lead throughout the night, have begun to align with our forecast. 17h ago

JUMP TO CHART ↓

Like in Iowa, Trump's greatest support in New Hampshire came from areas with lower s of college-educated voters. 18h ago

Despite her second-place finish, Haley vowed to continue on to the Feb. 24 primary in her home state of South Carolina. 18h ago

In the towns that have reported all or most of their votes, Republican turnout is 12% higher than in 2016. 19h ago

Haley won Hanover (home to Dartmouth College) 86-13, a stark illustration of Trump’s weakness among college graduates. 20h ago

JUMP TO MAPS ↓

We estimate Trump will win by +12, but with just 25% of votes in, there is still a wide range of possible margins. 20h ago

JUMP TO FORECAST ↓

The A.P. has called New Hampshire for Trump. Our forecast estimates that he will end up with a +13 margin of victory. 20h ago

JUMP TO FORECAST ↓

Early results are coming in; leads can be misleading until an area has reported most of its votes. 21h ago

JUMP TO MAP ↓

The six votes reported for Haley come from the township of Dixville Notch, where voting took place at midnight. 22h ago

Here’s what to watch in tonight’s primary. Jan. 23, 2024

The Needle, our election night forecast, will be live after the last polls close at 8 p.m. Eastern. Jan. 23, 2024

Where votes have been reported and where votes remain

These maps show the leading candidates’ margins in the vote reported so far, and estimates for which candidate leads in the remaining votes that we expect from each county.

Votes reported

ManchesterDoverNashuaConcordManchesterDoverNashuaConcord

LEADER

Trump

Haley

Circle size is proportional to the amount each town’s leading candidate is ahead.

Estimated votes remaining

ManchesterDoverNashuaConcordManchesterDoverNashuaConcord

We stopped updating our estimates at midnight Eastern time on Jan. 23. This map is now archived.

Town

Trump

Haley

Total votes

Percent of votes in% In

North Hampton

46%

53%

1,385

95%

Manchester

57

41

17,591

>95%

Nashua

52

46

15,160

>95%

Concord

45

52

7,951

>95%

Salem

67

31

7,845

>95%

Derry

63

34

7,066

>95%

+ Show all

We stopped updating our estimates at midnight Eastern time on Jan. 23. These graphics and estimates are now showing archived data as of that time.

Live forecast

This is our current best estimate for the outcome of this race. We look at the votes that have been reported so far and adjust our estimate based on what we expect from the votes that remain. Read more about how it works.

Chance of winning

VERY LIKELYLIKELYLEANINGTOSSUPLEANINGLIKELYVERY LIKELY

Trump wins 

Estimated margin

+25+20+15+10+5+5+10+15+20+25

Trump +11

TRUMP +8 TO TRUMP +14

Estimating the final vote s for Trump and Haley

This chart shows the range of estimates for the leading candidates’ s of the final vote. As more votes are reported, the ranges should narrow as our statistical model becomes more confident.

Candidate

Reported
vote

Est. final
vote

Chart showing NYT estimates of final vote margins

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Donald J. Trump

54%

55%53% TO 56%

Nikki Haley

43%

44%42% TO 45%

How our estimates changed over time

Once a state has counted all its votes, our estimated margin and the reported margin will match. As a rule, when our estimated margin is steady in the presence of new data, our forecast is more trustworthy.

EST. MARGIN

Best guess

50% of outcomes

95%

How our final margin estimate has changed so far

+30+20+10Even7 PM8 PM9 PM10 PM11 PMJan. 24Trump +10.7ReportedTrump +11NYT Estimate11:59 PM ETRace call

Chance of winning

20%40%60%80%100%7 PM8 PM9 PM10 PM11 PMJan. 24Trump wins11:59 PM ETRace call

 of expected turnout reported

20%40%60%80%100%7 PM8 PM9 PM10 PM11 PMJan. 2485% of votes in11:59 PM ETRace call

Mapping Trump vs. Haley

These maps show the  of the total vote received by Donald J. Trump and Nikki Haley in each New Hampshire town.

Donald J. Trump

ManchesterDoverNashuaConcordManchesterDoverNashuaConcord

50

60

70

Nikki Haley

ManchesterDoverNashuaConcordManchesterDoverNashuaConcord

50

60

70

What to expect

Polls close between 7 p.m. and 8 p.m. Eastern time, depending on the city or town. In the 2016 and 2020 Republican primaries, the AP projected a winner right at 8 p.m. Eastern time, and just over 90 percent of votes were reported by 1:00 a.m.

The state requires an excuse to cast an absentee ballot, so most voters will appear in person. Same-day registration is allowed. Voters who are registered with a party will be provided with that party’s ballot, and undeclared voters will be able to choose either a Democratic or Republican ballot. Voters had until Oct. 6, 2023 to change their party affiliation.

The state’s 22 Republican delegates (less than one percent of the party’s delegates nationwide) will be allocated to candidates proportionally based on the final vote count. In pre-election polling, former president Donald J. Trump hovered between 40 and 50 percent, with Nikki Haley steadily rising in the polls behind him.

2024 Primary Results

·         Iowa

·         New Hampshire

Note: Candidates who filed for the primary but have since withdrawn will still appear on the ballot and may receive votes.

Source: Election results and race calls are from The Associated Press. The Times publishes its own estimates for each candidate’s  of the final vote and the number of remaining votes, based on historic turnout data and reporting from results providers. These are only estimates, and they may not be informed by reports from election officials.

Produced by Michael Andre, Camille Baker, Neil Berg, Michael Beswetherick, Matthew Bloch, Irineo Cabreros, Nate Cohn, Lindsey Rogers Cook, Alastair Coote, Annie Daniel, Saurabh Datar, Leo Dominguez, Andrew Fischer, Martín González Gómez, Will Houp, K.K. Rebecca Lai, Jasmine C. Lee, Ilana Marcus, Alicia Parlapiano, Elena Shao, Charlie Smart, Isaac White and Christine Zhang.

Editing by Wilson Andrews, Lindsey Cook, William P. Davis, Amy Hughes, Ben Koski and Allison McCartney.

 

 

 

ATTACHMENT FOUR – FROM WASHINGTON EXAMINER

NEW HAMPSHIRE PRIMARY: FOUR KEY TAKEAWAYS FROM PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION RESULTS

ByCami Mondeaux  January 23, 2024 11:32 pm

Former President Donald Trump marched even closer to clinching his party’s presidential nomination after the New Hampshire primary on Tuesday, dealing a blow to former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley’s prospects even as she refuses to drop out. 

Several news outlets called the race in favor of Trump shortly after the polls closed at 8 p.m. EST, giving the former president another boost for his candidacy as he seeks to cement the GOP nomination. With 95% of the vote counted, Trump led 54% to Haley’s 43%. The results were hardly a surprise for many of Trump’s supporters, as polls showed him with a substantial lead for weeks leading up to the election. 

New Hampshire served as a major test for Haley as she wagered much of her campaign on winning big in the Granite State, hoping it would give her candidacy a boost early in the primary cycle. But after falling to Trump, her second place raises questions about her overall strength as a candidate. 

Here are four key takeaways from the New Hampshire primary as candidates now turn their eyes to the next nominating contests: 

1 Trump secures historic victory with wins in Iowa and New Hampshire

Trump easily defeated Haley on Tuesday, garnering 55% of the vote among GOP and independent voters with nearly three-fourths of the vote tallied. The victory also foretells good news for the former president, as no Republican candidate has ever won both the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary without going on to win the party’s presidential nomination. 

Trump’s win has prompted his top allies to renew calls for Haley to drop out of the race, declaring the primary season to be over after New Hampshire.  Republican presidential candidate former President Donald Trump speaks at a primary election night party in Nashua, N.H., Tuesday, Jan. 23, 2024, as Vivek Ramaswamy, Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC) and Eric Trump laugh. (AP Photo/Pablo Martinez Monsivais)

“It is time for the Republican Party to coalesce around our nominee and the next president of the United States, Donald Trump,” Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC), once a primary rival to Trump, said Tuesday night. 

Trump also offered a stark warning to supporters after his victory in New Hampshire, claiming the country “has no choice” but to reelect him. 

“If we don’t win, I think our country is finished,” he said. “The reason we have support is because they are so bad at what they’re doing and so evil, and they’re destroying our country.” 

2 Despite trailing behind, Nikki Haley remains a thorn in Trump’s side

Although Haley failed to overcome Trump at the ballot box, the former U.N. ambassador is not ready to succumb to her former boss. 

Shortly after the race was called in Trump’s favor, Haley congratulated him on his win while also making clear she was not yet throwing in the towel. Haley pointed to the lead by which Trump won, which was smaller than the former president once confidently predicted, as evidence her campaign is still “moving up.” 

“New Hampshire is the first in the nation; it is not the last in the nation,” Haley told supporters. “This race is far from over; there are dozens of states left to go.” 

Republican presidential candidate former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley speaks at a New Hampshire primary night rally, in Concord, N.H., Tuesday Jan. 23, 2024. (AP Photo/Steven Senne)

Haley’s adamance underscores a possible strategy being employed by her campaign to continue pouring resources into states with open primaries that allow independent or Democratic voters to weigh in on the GOP nomination. Such a strategy would include a focus on South Carolina and Michigan, as well as 11 other primary states scheduled for Super Tuesday in March. 

That could prove to be a burden to Trump, whose team had hoped Haley would drop out after her loss in New Hampshire so the former president could begin focusing all his resources on the general election. Instead, by keeping her campaign alive, Trump’s team may be forced to spend money in South Carolina to diminish any momentum Haley may gain before its Feb. 24 primary. 

3 Exit polls indicate MAGA movement may not be a winning message everywhere

Similar to the Iowa caucuses, Trump managed to snag the victory quickly and surely. But one key difference between the two contests: Fewer GOP voters in the Granite State say they identify themselves as a part of the MAGA movement, short for Trump’s slogan of Make America Great Again.

Most voters who voted in the GOP primary in New Hampshire said they did not align themselves with Trump’s MAGA campaign, according to exit polls conducted by CNN. Those numbers are a significant drop from the nearly half of caucusgoers in Iowa who identified themselves as MAGA voters. 

Roughly half of the voters on Tuesday said they believed President Joe Biden’s victory over Trump in 2020 was legitimate, the poll showed — again another shift from the roughly two-thirds who denied Biden’s victory in Iowa, according to the outlet. 

The difference in electorates indicates Trump’s MAGA message may not be a winning platform in every state, which could play a role in how the former president fares in other primary races or a rematch with Biden. 

4 Biden avoids embarrassment with victorious write-in campaign 

Biden also walked away with a small victory on Tuesday after winning the Democratic contest despite not being on the primary ballot.  

Biden did not submit his name to appear on the ballot amid a feud that emerged after the Democratic National Committee stripped New Hampshire of its first-in-the-nation status on the party’s presidential nominating calendar. Instead, voters used the opportunity to organize an expansive write-in campaign for the president in order to blunt any strong showings from his Democratic opponents — namely, Rep. Dean Phillips (D-MN). 

The Associated Press called the race in Biden’s favor shortly after the polls closed. With 85% of the ballots in, Biden had tallied at least a third of the votes, while another third were write-in votes that had yet to be processed. Phillips garnered 20% of the vote, while author Marianne Williamson trailed behind at 5%.

 

 

ATTACHMENT FIVE – FROM FORBES

TRUMP TRASHES FOX NEWS AND INSULTS HALEY ON SOCIAL MEDIA AFTER NEW HAMPSHIRE WIN

By Siladitya Ray  Jan 24, 2024,02:53am EST  Updated Jan 24, 2024, 04:47am EST

 

Former President Donald Trump lashed out at Fox News and hurled personal insults at his primary opponent, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, in a series of posts on his Truth Social platform late Tuesday, while President Joe Biden warned Trump’s New Hampshire primary win made it clear he would be the Republican nominee for the 2024 elections.

After angrily laying into his opponent in his victory speech, Trump continued to target Haley with personal insults, calling her “birdbrain” and claiming he was leading in her home state of South Carolina by “30 to 50 points.”

Trump then turned his ire towards Fox News for saying “CNN & MSDNC” treated his “BIG, DOUBLE DIGIT” win over Haley “BETTER THAN FOX!”

Trump appeared to be particularly displeased with Fox host and his former White House Press Secretary Kayleigh McEnany—whom he called a “RINO” (Republican In Name Only)—for “telling me what I can do better.”

In later posts, Trump continued to knock the former South Carolina Gov. for losing in New Hampshire and even d a screenshot of a Breitbart headline that alluded to Haley getting most of her support from non-Republican voters.

During Fox News’ coverage of the primary results, host Jessica Tarlov criticized Trump’s “uncontrollable narcissism and rage,” while analyst Brit Hume pointed out the former president’s apparent “weakness” with independents.

In a statement d with reporters after the New Hampshire primary, President Joe Biden said the results make it clear that “Donald Trump will be the Republican nominee. And my message to the country is the stakes could not be higher.” Biden warned Trump’s impending nomination meant: “Our Democracy. Our personal freedoms - from the right to choose to the right to vote. Our economy which has seen the strongest recovery in the world since COVID. All are at stake.” He then urged independent voters and Republicans “who  our commitment to core values of our nation…to join us.”

The Associated Press called the New Hampshire GOP primary for Trump at around 8 p.m. ET on Tuesday. With more than 90% of the votes tallied as of early Wednesday morning, Trump’s lead over Haley has grown to 11.5 points with the former president gaining 11 delegates. Haley has received eight delegates so far, with 19 of 22 GOP delegates allocated. Despite her loss, Haley has vowed to stay in the contest at least until South Carolina’s primary. Despite not appearing on the ballot, a write-in effort by his supporters meant Biden won the Democratic New Hampshire Primary. No delegates will be assigned for the Democrats, due to a conflict between the state and the Democratic National Committee—which intends to hold the party’s first primary in South Carolina.

FURTHER READING

Trump Bashes ‘Imposter’ Haley, Claims Gov. Sununu Is ‘On Something’ In Fiery New Hampshire Victory Speech (Forbes)

Trump Wins New Hampshire Primary—Defeating Haley (Forbes)

Biden Wins New Hampshire Democratic Primary—Despite Absence From Ballot (Forbes)

 

ATTACHMENT SIX – FROM THE WASHINGTON TIMES

TRUMP MAULS ‘IMPOSTER’ HALEY IN VICTORY SPEECH

By Seth McLaughlin - The Washington Times - Tuesday, January 23, 2024

 

Former President Donald Trump celebrated his victory in the New Hampshire primary by mocking Nikki Haley for “pretending” to win GOP nomination contests that she loses.

Addressing his supporters at his election night party in New Hampshire, Mr. Trump said he keeps winning and Ms. Haley keeps losing.

“She didn’t win, she lost,” Mr. Trump said, adding it is part of a pattern with Ms. Haley who finished third in Iowa last week but said that result made it a two-person race.

 “This is not your typical victory speech, but let’s not let someone take a victory when she had a very bad night,” Mr. Trump said.

Mr. Trump scored his second straight victory in the GOP presidential race, leaving many to conclude the race is all but over.

Ms. Haley, however, took the stage earlier in the evening, suggesting she exceeded expectations and vowed to stick in the race despite the losses.

 

Mr. Trump took issue with her timing, saying she ran onto the stage when his margin of victory was growing — it was about six points when she conceded but edged upward as the night progressed.

He said in his speech that he could have taken the high road, but one must speak up against someone acting like Ms. Haley.

“Who the hell is the imposter that went up on the stage before and, like, claimed a victory?” Mr. Trump said. “She had to win.”

Mr. Trump also attacked Gov. Chris Sununu of New Hampshire, who endorsed Ms. Haley, saying “has to be on something” and said he has “never seen anybody with [so much] energy.”

“He is like hopscotch,” Mr. Trump said.

• Seth McLaughlin can be reached at smclaughlin@washingtontimes.com.

 

 

ATTACHMENT SEVEN – FROM THE NEW YORK POST

DONALD TRUMP NOTCHES 11-POINT WIN OVER NIKKI HALEY IN NEW HAMPSHIRE — BUT IT’S NOT ENOUGH TO KNOCK HER OUT

By  Diana Glebova  Published Jan. 23, 2024   Updated Jan. 23, 2024, 11:01 p.m. ET

 

Former President Donald Trump took a giant step closer to his third consecutive Republican presidential nomination in Tuesday’s New Hampshire primary, holding off former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley to complete a sweep of the first two GOP contests.

Meanwhile, President Biden secured victory in New Hampshire’s Democratic primary, despite not being listed on the ballot and leaving supporters to write his name in.

With 91% of the expected Republican vote in, Trump led Haley with 54.8% support to her 43.2% — a narrower margin than most polls suggested he would win by entering primary day and close enough for Haley to tell cheering supporters in Concord she would continue the race at least through the primary in her home state Feb. 24.

A few moments later, the 77-year-old 45th president took the stage in Nashua to deliver a taunting triumphal address directed at his last major rival in the GOP field.

“Who the hell was the imposter that went up on the stage that went before and claimed victory?” Trump asked as his supporters chanted “Bird-brain!” in reference to the former president’s derogatory nickname for his one-time ambassador to the United Nations. “She did very poorly, actually.”

The former president, flanked by onetime 2024 rivals Vivek Ramaswamy and Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC) and allies like far-right Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) also sneered at New Hampshire GOP Gov. Chris Sununu for backing Haley, telling the crowd “he’s gotta be on something” before demanding once again that the former South Carolina governor leave the race.

“Ron [DeSantis] beat her also,” Trump said, referencing the Florida governor’s showing in last week’s Iowa caucus. “Remember, Ron came in second, and he left.”

The former president was boosted coming into the Granite State by a series of endorsements from elected officials — including DeSantis after he dropped out of the race Sunday.

As in Iowa, the Trump camp intended to leave nothing to chance, with the man himself telling supporters to turn out in large numbers because “margins are important” and back-to-back blowouts would send a message of “unity” in the GOP.

Trump also flooded New Hampshire with prominent surrogates — including No. 4 House Republican Elise Stefanik (R-NY) in addition to Scott, Greene and Ramaswamy — while his campaign made hundreds of thousands of phone calls in a bid to boost voter turnout.

For Haley, New Hampshire was seen by many as her best opportunity to defeat the GOP frontrunner, with some polls showing her within four percentage points of the former president.

The ex-UN envoy leaned heavily on the state’s large population of independent voters and veterans, focusing on her vision for the economy, foreign policy and her husband’s military experience.

On primary morning, Haley’s campaign vowed to fight on at least through Super Tuesday on March 5, when 16 states and territories hold their nominating votes.

“After Super Tuesday, we will have a very good picture of where this race stands … Until then, everyone should take a deep breath,” campaign manager Betsy Ankney wrote in a memo.

Trump took a giant step closer to his third straight Republican presidential nomination on Tuesday.AP

Haley’s path forward will be an uphill climb.

She is not registered for the Feb. 8 Nevada caucus and is instead entered in the Feb. 6 non-binding primary, meaning she is not eligible to receive delegates. 

Haley said Sunday she chose to not compete against Trump in the caucus because the Silver State was already “bought and paid” for by his campaign.

In South Carolina, meanwhile, Haley is currently polling more than 30 points behind Trump, coming in at an average of 21.8% compared to his 52.0%, according to RealClearPolitics.

With 87% of estimated votes counted in the Democratic primary, Biden had recorded 37.2% support, more than enough to thwart his nearest challenger, Rep. Dean Phillips (D-Minn.), who attained 19.6% of the vote.

As of early Wednesday, another 30.8% of ballots in the Democratic race were unprocessed write-in votes, the vast majority of which were expected to go to Biden as well and push his  comfortably above 50%.

Self-help author Marianne Williamson was a distant third, with 4.8% of the vote.

Biden declined to register for the New Hampshire primary ballot following a calendar dispute between the Democratic National Committee and state officials.

The DNC had attempted to move the first-in-the-nation primary to South Carolina on Feb. 3, but New Hampshire refused to comply, since state law mandates it hold its primary at least a week before any other state.

To counter Biden’s snub, state Democratic bigwigs put their influence behind the “Write-in Biden” initiative, which placed volunteers at polling places, put up signs and sent out mail instructing voters on what to do on primary day.

Longtime Democratic strategists feared that Biden’s absence from the ballot could lead to a repeat of the 1968 primary, when then-President Lyndon B. Johnson also was not listed on the ballot and announced he would not seek another term following a narrower-than-expected win over Sen. Eugene McCarthy (D-Minn.)

Phillips said Tuesday night that Biden had “absolutely won tonight, but by no means in a way that a strong incumbent president should” before vowing to “go to South Carolina, and then we’re going to go to Michigan and then we’re going to go to 47 other states.”

 

 

ATTACHMENT EIGHT – FROM WGBH (BOSTON)

VERMIN SUPREME RUNS ON GINGIVITIS AND ZOMBIE POWER

 

In a Tuesday, Feb. 9, 2016 file photo Democratic presidential candidate Vermin Supreme smiles while holding a giant toothbrush with a boot on his head while visiting a polling station on primary day during a campaign stop in Londonderry, N.H. Supreme, a humorous performance artist who is perennially on the ballot as a presidential candidate supporting laws mandating that people brush their teeth and in past presidential campaigns a promise to a free pony for every American.

By Hannah Loss

January 23, 2024  Updated  January 23, 2024

For Vermin Love Supreme a boot is more than a piece of footwear. Or, in his case, headwear.

The perennial presidential candidate wears a large black boot on his head to help him communicate with the American public.

“It is a boot that has absolute magic that has allowed me to exponentially amplify my First Amendment free speech voice, and communicate with people around the world,” he told Boston Public Radio in New Hampshire on Tuesday.

The boot is also a symbol, he said, of the media's obsession with candidates. “Personnel from the media will ask me about the boot and I tell them that the boot is a pile of excrement and that they are the flies that buzz around it,” said Vermin Supreme.

Vermin Supreme is running on a platform that includes free ponies for all Americans, time travel research and using zombies to create energy by harnessing “the latest in hamster wheel technology.”

He also runs on a promise of mandatory toothbrushing laws, “because gingivitis has been eroding the country's gum line for long enough and must be stopped."

The performative candidate has caused some excitement at an otherwise quiet New Hampshire primary. On Jan. 19 he managed to work his way onto the stage before a Ron DeSantis rally in New Hampshire, just days before the Florida Gov. dropped out of the race.

“If you don't run a tight ship, I'm going to end up on your stage,” Vermin Supreme said. He worked the audience for a few minutes before he was asked to leave. Some people were confused by who he was, not realizing his campaign is more of a satire than a real political platform.

“A lot of people attacked Ron DeSantis because I was on stage, and they felt his security failed. And everybody else just knew me and thought it was a lot of fun,” he said.

Vermin Supreme plans to hold a “pageant” to pick his vice president and said joining forces with performative candidate Paperboy Love Prince is a real possibility.

 

 

ATTACHMENT NINE – FROM TIME

TRUMP WINS GOP PRIMARY IN NEW HAMPSHIRE AS BIDEN ALSO WINS STATE WITH WRITE-IN CAMPAIGN

BY HOLLY RAMER, JILL COLVIN AND WILL WEISSERT / AP

UPDATED: JANUARY 23, 2024 10:45 PM EST | ORIGINALLY PUBLISHED: JANUARY 23, 2024 9:15 PM EST

MANCHESTER, N.H. — Former President Donald Trump easily won New Hampshire’s primary on Tuesday, seizing command of the race for the Republican nomination and making a November rematch against President Joe Biden feel all the more inevitable.

The result was a setback for former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, who finished second despite investing significant time and financial resources in a state famous for its independent streak. She’s the last major challenger after Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis ended his presidential bid over the weekend, allowing her to campaign as the sole alternative to Trump.

Trump’s allies ramped up pressure on Haley to leave the race before the polls had closed, but Haley vowed after the results were announced to continue her campaign. Speaking to supporters, she intensified her criticism of the former president, questioning his mental acuity and pitching herself as a unifying candidate who would usher in generational change.

“This race is far from over. There are dozens of states left to go,” Haley said, while some in the crowd cried, “It’s not over!”

Read More: Nikki Haley Did New Hampshire Right. New Hampshire Didn’t Care

Trump, meanwhile, can now boast of being the first Republican presidential candidate to win open races in Iowa and New Hampshire since both states began leading the election calendar in 1976, a striking sign of how rapidly Republicans have rallied around him to make him their nominee for the third consecutive time.

At his victory party Tuesday night, Trump repeatedly insulted Haley and gave a far angrier speech than after his Iowa victory, when his message was one of Republican unity.

“Let’s not have someone take a victory when she had a very bad night,” Trump said. He added, “Just a little note to Nikki: She’s not going to win.”

With easy wins in both early states, Trump is demonstrating an ability to unite the GOP’s factions firmly behind him. He’s garnered support from the evangelical conservatives who are influential in Iowa and New Hampshire’s more moderate voters, strength he hopes to replicate during the general election.

Read More: How Trump Took Control of the GOP Primary

Trump posted especially strong results in the state's most conservative areas, while Haley won more liberal parts. The only areas in which Haley was leading Trump were in Democratic-leaning cities and towns such as Concord, Keene and Portsmouth.

Pat Sheridan, a 63-year-old engineer from Hampton, voted for Trump “because he did a really good job the first time.”

“We need a businessman, not bureaucrats,” Sheridan said.

About half of GOP primary voters said they are very or somewhat concerned that Trump is too extreme to win the general election, according to AP VoteCast, a survey of the state’s electorate. Only about one-third say the same about Haley.

Still, Haley’s path to becoming the GOP standard-bearer is narrowing quickly. She won’t compete in a contest that awards delegates until South Carolina’s Feb. 24 primary, bypassing the Feb. 8 Nevada caucuses that are widely seen as favoring Trump.

As South Carolina’s former governor, Haley is hoping a strong showing there could propel her into the March 5 Super Tuesday contests. But in a deeply conservative state where Trump is exceedingly popular, those ambitions may be tough to realize and a home-state loss could prove politically devastating.

“This is just the beginning; we’ve got the rest of the nation,” said Sandy Adams, 66, an independent from Bow who supported Haley. “I think we’ve got a strong candidate, and the first time we have just two candidates, and that’s a great thing.”

On the Democratic side, Biden won his party’s primary but had to do so via a write-in effort. The Democratic National Committee voted to start its primary next month in South Carolina, but New Hampshire pushed ahead with its own contest. Biden didn’t campaign or appear on the ballot but topped a series of little-known challengers.

Trump’s early sweep through the Republican primary is remarkable considering he faces 91 criminal charges related to everything from seeking to overturn the 2020 presidential election to mishandling classified documents and arranging payoffs to a porn actress. He left the White House in 2021 in the grim aftermath of an insurrection at the U.S. Capitol led by his supporters who sought to stop the certification of Biden’s win. And Trump was the first president to be impeached twice.

Read More: A Guide to All of Trump’s Indictments—and Where Each Case Stands

Beyond the political vulnerabilities associated with the criminal cases, Trump faces a logistical challenge in balancing trials and campaigning. He has frequently appeared voluntarily at a New York courtroom where a jury is considering whether he should pay additional damages to a columnist who last year won a $5 million jury award against Trump for sex abuse and defamation. He has turned these appearances into campaign events, holding televised news conferences that give him an opportunity to spread his message to a large audience.

But Trump has turned those vulnerabilities into an advantage among GOP voters. He has argued that the criminal prosecutions reflect a politicized Justice Department, though there’s no evidence that officials there were pressured by Biden or anyone else in the White House to file charges.

Trump has also repeatedly told his supporters that he’s being prosecuted on their behalf, an argument that appears to have further strengthened his bond with the GOP base.

As Trump begins to pivot his attention to Biden and a general election campaign, the question is whether the former president’s framing of the legal cases will persuade voters beyond the GOP base. Trump lost the popular vote in the 2016 and 2020 elections and has faced particular struggles in suburban communities from Georgia to Pennsylvania to Arizona that could prove decisive in the fall campaign.

Trump traveled frequently to New Hampshire in the months leading up to the primary but didn’t spend as much time in the state as many of his rivals. Rather than the traditional approach of greeting voters personally or in small groups, Trump has staged large rallies. He has spent much of his time complaining about the past—including the lie that the 2020 election was stolen due to widespread voter fraud.

If he returns to the White House, the former president has promised to enact a hardline immigration agenda that includes stopping migrants from crossing the U.S.-Mexico border and reimposing his first-term travel ban that originally targeted seven Muslim-majority countries. He’s also said the rising number of immigrants entering the United States are “poisoning the blood of our country,” echoing Adolf Hitler’s language.

Biden faces his own challenges. There are widespread concerns about his age at 81 years old. Dissent is also building within his party over Biden’s alliance with Israel in its war against Hamas, putting the president’s standing at risk in swing states like Michigan. A rally he held in northern Virginia on Tuesday to promote abortion rights—an issue his party sees as critical to success in November—was disrupted repeatedly by protests over U.S. military support for Israel. One person shouted “shame on you!”

But he avoided potential embarrassment in New Hampshire even as rivals like Minnesota Rep. Dean Phillips compared him, in advertising, to Bigfoot—since both were hard to find.

Durwood Sargent, 79, of Bow, cast a write-in vote for Biden and said he wasn’t offended that the president kept his name off the ballot.

“It’s not a big deal. They’ve made a big deal out of it. The president’s got a country to run,” he said.

—Colvin reported from Nashua, New Hampshire. Weissert reported from Washington. The AP’s Bill Barrow in Atlanta, Michelle L. Price in Nashua, New Hampshire, Joseph Frederick in Franklin, New Hampshire, and Mike Pesoli in Laconia, New Hampshire, contributed to this report.

 

 

 

ATTACHMENT TEN – FROM TIME

IN NEW HAMPSHIRE, HALEY NEEDS TO PROVE TRUMP’S GRIP ON THE GOP ISN’T ABSOLUTE

BY PHILIP ELLIOTT JANUARY 23, 2024 6:00 AM EST

 

It took her almost a year for Nikki Haley to land her ultimate goal: a one-on-one race against Donald Trump. But now that she's reached that position, outlasting a long list of men vying for the same spot, it might not be as enviable as she once considered it. And it might last about as long as the shrinking piles of graying snow beside the winding and treacherous roads New Hampshire voters will take to the ballot boxes on Tuesday.

Haley, who served as Trump’s rep to the United Nations before beginning her effort to claim the top job herself, has shown a mix of flinty pluck and feisty resolve during the last week. Her disappointing third-place finish in Iowa was a wake-up call about just how tricky it is to outmaneuver Trump’s outsized ego and all that it represents inside a Republican Party unable to shake its orbital pull. Ratcheting up her rhetoric since decamping from Iowa—where she won just one of the state’s 99 counties and by a 1-vote margin to boot—Haley has tried to convince her fellow Republicans it’s not too late to derail the seemingly anointed return of Trump. Through a gritted grin, Haley has made perhaps the most credible case against Trump since the spring of 2016, when Ted Cruz’s last-ditch effort proved too tardy to matter.

“America doesn’t do coronations,” she said Monday in the Lakes Region town of Franklin, N.H. “We believe in choices. We believe in democracy, and we believe in freedom. I have said I love the live-free-or-die state, but you know what? I want to make it a live-free-or-die country.”

Now, with just Haley standing in the way of Trump claiming the GOP nomination for a third time, the moment she sought has arrived. But a path to a win is hard to find. The final Boston Globe/ Suffolk University/ NBC10 tracking poll showed Haley a full 19 points behind Trump, who enjoyed 57% support.

As she’s outlasted contender after contener not named Trump, few of their supporters have shifted to her. Some slowly found their natural home back in Trump’s shadow. Despite the belief that a unified Republican Party could deny Trump the nomination if only the field would narrow—I am among those guilty on this front, to be fair—the notion of a coalescing around a Trump alternative never materialized. The phantom idea of an anti-Trump lost credibility as most of those vying for the title made clear their priority was maintaining their future in GOP politics, ensuring they would spend months treating Trump with kid gloves. 

To her credit, Haley (belatedly) decided to take her chances. The result has been a week of critiques that came across as a deluge without sufficient space to sink in. A final pair of debates set for New Hampshire were scrapped as Haley refused to participate in any more sessions unless Trump bothered to show up. (Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who ended his furtive effort on Sunday and backed Trump, was not worth Haley’s time, apparently.)

Haley is a political fighter, for sure, and she made the case that her strongest basket of support could come from New Hampshire voters who aren’t particularly hardened as partisans. The biggest political party in the state are those voters who don’t identify as Republicans or Democrats; they can decide on Primary Day if they want to take a D or an R ballot at their local fire hall, library, church, or school. In 2016, the last time Republicans had an open contest for the nomination, a full 42% of participants were so-called unaffiliated voters. Trump carried them at the same level as he carried self-identified Republicans, at 36%, on his march to victory.

Haley this time is trying to persuade these voters not to repeat that mistake. The Post/ Monmouth poll finds a majority of likely Republican voters say Trump did something wrong or illegal on Jan. 6, 2021. Among the 53% of voters who  that view, a striking 91% are with Haley. Among the unaffiliated voters, Haley enjoys a 10-point advantage over Trump, 48%-38%. While that delta is impressive, it’s worth recalling that Sen. John McCain leaned on his appeal with the same bloc in 2000 to best party favorite, George W. Bush, thanks to a 42-point advantage among the indies. The political mythologies in New Hampshire are as fanciful as they are sacrosanct, especially the Legend of McCain; that doesn’t mean they’re easy to replicate. (And, it’s worth emphasizing: Bush still won the nomination.)

In the modern era, no Republican has nicked back-to-back wins in Iowa and New Hampshire. Granite Staters are reluctant—if not hostile—to ratifying the results coming out of Iowa. The unofficial mantra among the political class follows that Iowa picks corn while New Hampshire picks Presidents. It’s clever, but it’s also not entirely wrong. New Hampshire voters demand the personal touch, and seldom reach back to insincere interlopers. Key word: seldom.

(Democrats, sour on the very white populace in New Hampshire, decided to launch their nominating contest in South Carolina on Feb. 3. Biden isn’t even on the New Hampshire Democratic ballot, the winner of which will gain no delegates.)

Unaffiliated strategists have watched Haley do the work in a way that impressed them. In fact, New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu, who mulled a 2024 White House run of his own before deciding to retire from politics at the end of this term rather than fight for a party that his family helped define for five decades, threw his lot in with Haley. But the fact remains that she is still running in a state in the throes of a Trump fever. The final Washington Post/ Monmouth poll found a plurality of likely Republican primary voters—51%—think Biden is an illegitimate President who is in the White House because of voter fraud. It’s tough to win as a reasonable conservative when the bulk are anything but.

So it’s against that backdrop that Haley is hustling. She seems to have found the right timing for a late rise, gotten lucky with the demise of her competitors, and finally shed the last of her fright over the Trump retribution. She may have a good Tuesday night at her campaign headquarters in Concord. But defining “good” is going to be a difficult sparing of spin. Her allies are advertising that “we are already plotting our course to South Carolina and beyond,” according to a pre-Primary Day memo from her super PAC helpers. At least for the moment, Haley and her allies are casting the race as one going until at least Feb. 24, when Haley’s home state of South Carolina weighs in.

Perhaps. But these campaigns aren’t free. Her deep-pocketed super PAC pals are working to raise more money as a protest against Trump’s return to power. But ultimately the candidate herself needs to be able to show she can deliver voters. It’s as trite as it is true: campaigns don’t run out of steam, but they do run out of donors who are willing to keep writing checks. The brutal trifecta of South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott, Gov. Henry McMaster, and Rep. Nancy Mace all lining up with Trump left plenty of Palmetto State insiders piqued by the perceived lack of loyalty—and reminded them that Trump is still an unmatched bully.

There will be a good number of bank transfers on the donors’ screens as the polls close on Tuesday. Hitting the confirm button will hinge on how those donors are conditioned to see Haley’s numbers, and whether there is a reasonable belief that Haley is getting close to her goals, or if Trump is simply too big of a force to bump off course. Now that it’s a one-on-one race for the nomination, the verdict will be apparent, and quickly. For Haley, who has been pining for this exact head-to-head with her former boss, there’s nowhere to hide if this goes sideways.

 

 

ATTACHMENT ELEVEN – FROM GUK

NIKKI HALEY CHASES UPSET IN BITTER NEW HAMPSHIRE FACE-OFF WITH TRUMP

Polls open in state’s primary in what may be last chance Republicans have to stop ex-president from securing nomination

·         New Hampshire primary – live updates

By Lauren Gambino in Manchester, New Hampshire, Adam Gabbatt in Windham, David Smith in Nashua, Chris Stein in Concord and Martin Pengelly in Washington  Tue 23 Jan 2024 15.04 EST

·          

New Hampshire held its primary on Tuesday, seen by many as the last chance for Republicans to stop Donald Trump seizing their presidential nomination a third time. Would voters stand by the former president, the winner in Iowa, or would they put Nikki Haley in striking distance or even hand her a win?

‘New Hampshire is do-or-die’: Granite state is Nikki Haley’s best chance against Trump

Read more

 

Trump led polling by double digits but was considered vulnerable in a state where independents make up nearly 40% of the electorate and can vote in party primaries. Balancing that, on Sunday Ron DeSantis, the hard-right Florida governor, left the race to Haley – but endorsed Trump.

In 2016, New Hampshire propelled Trump to the nomination. Eight years later, eight days after a record Iowa victory, another big win would effectively extinguish Haley. The former South Carolina governor staked her candidacy on New Hampshire, attempting to convince voters she is best placed to beat Joe Biden in November.

“We’ve come a long way in these 11 months,” Haley’s campaign manager, Betsy Ankney, said in a “state of the race” memo.

“We started at 2% [support]. We started with zero dollars in the bank. No one thought we had a shot … And here we are, $50m raised, over 200 stops, and 12 fellas [failed male candidates] later, and Nikki’s still standing.”

Trump’s campaign released its own memo, aides Chris LaCivita and Susie Wiles predicting Haley’s efforts would only win an “aggressive – and bloody” campaign for “First Place Loser”, against the vanquished DeSantis.

In the first official results, all six voters in Dixville Notch picked Haley in a traditional midnight primary, a contest once seen as a bellwether for predicting the nominee. So, later in Concord, did Martin Janoschek, a Republican-leaning independent.

“I know she’s a long shot,” said Janoschek, 57 and unemployed. “I think she’s a pretty common-sensical person, from what I heard.”

If it came down to Trump or Biden in the November general election, Janoschek said, he would probably vote for the former president over the current one.

In Nashua, at Bicentennial elementary school, voters came and went. At the snowy entrance, a few people waved signs.

Rita Case, 78 and a retired IT worker, said she had wanted to vote for DeSantis. “I like the things DeSantis believes in, and there would not be the chaos and division that might come with Bozo, whose mouth is his worst enemy,” she said, referring ungraciously to Trump.

But she switched to Trump anyway, explaining: “He can keep people in their place and take care of the border and not let other countries walk all over us. The chaos and the ‘Uh, well’ comes in second.”

 

Escorted by her prize supporter, the Republican governor, Chris Sununu, Haley has traveled the state from the “suburbs to the seacoast”. Trump had been seen less widely: facing 91 criminal charges, attempts to keep him off the ballot for inciting an insurrection and assorted civil lawsuits, he held New Hampshire rallies between court appearances in Washington and New York.

For much of her near-year-long campaign, Haley, 51, avoided direct confrontation, seeking instead to draw implicit contrasts with calls for a “new generation” of leaders and proposing cognitive tests for older politicians such as Biden, who is 81, but also Trump, who is 77. In the final days, Haley went after Trump more aggressively, questioning his mental fitness.

Trump responded with insults and misrepresentations, accusing his former UN ambassador of relying on “globalists” and liberals. He also revived a “birtherism” lie which claims Haley is ineligible for president because her parents were not US citizens when she was born. Born in South Carolina to parents from India, Haley is eligible. Trump also appeared to mock Haley by referring to (and misspelling) her given name, Nimarata. Haley has always used her middle name, Nikki.

Many New Hampshire voters complained that the campaign mostly played out in TV ads and mailshots as millions were spent. Some voters said they received up to 10 pieces of literature each day. In Manchester, the night before the primary, Haley told her audience: “You’re excited because you won’t have to watch any more commercials. You won’t have to see the mail and the text messages will stop.”

The flood is about to consume another state. Haley scheduled a rally for North Charleston, South Carolina, for Wednesday. It was set to be accompanied by $4m in television, radio and digital advertising.

“We don’t believe in coronations in this country,” Haley told Fox News. “I’m in this for the long haul.”

Trump dominates South Carolina polling, however.

Democrats were also holding a New Hampshire primary on Tuesday, if without Biden on the ballot after the party tried to start its contest in South Carolina. Voters chose between Dean Phillips, a congressman from Minnesota, and Marianne Williamson, an author and self-help guru. Biden supporters urged voters to write in the president’s name.

At a high-school in Windham, Phillips chatted with Theresa Arangio. Later, she said she wavered between Biden and Phillips, before Phillips won her over.

Trump holds wide lead over Nikki Haley in New Hampshire, polls show

 

Arangio, 81, said: “President Biden, I really think he’s done a great job. I really like him. But, you know, the age is a factor. And with Trump, I’m just afraid. I don’t want four more years of him. I just don’t for our country.”

In Concord, AhLana Ames, 23 and a law student, said she did not vote for a person but for a word: “Ceasefire”. She had taken part in a campaign to write in the term, in protest of Biden’s support for Israel’s war in Gaza.

“I’m against war in general,” Ames said. “I don’t think what’s going on in Israel is particularly just. I’m not particularly pleased with how Joe Biden is handling it, but wanted to vote Democratic.”

Saying she planned to move to Pennsylvania, a swing state Biden will probably need in the general election, Ames conceded she would probably support him.

“I just know I’ll never vote for a Republican,” she said.

 

 

ATTACHMENT TWELVE – FROM THE NEW YORK TIMES

A MISSED OPPORTUNITY

 

Is the Republican presidential primary over already?

Not quite, but it’s a reasonable question after New Hampshire’s first-in-the-nation primary delivered a clear victory for Donald Trump last night. And if your definition of “over” is whether Trump is now on track to win without a serious contest, the answer is probably “yes.”

With nearly all the counting done, he won 55 percent of the vote. His only remaining rival, Nikki Haley, won 43 percent.

Trump’s 12-point margin of victory is not extraordinarily impressive in its own right. In fact, he won by a smaller margin than many pre-election polls suggested.

What makes Trump’s victory so important — and what raises the question about whether the race is over — is that New Hampshire was Haley’s best opportunity to change the trajectory of the race. It was arguably her best opportunity to win a state, period.

Not true – her only chance to win was and remains a legal landslide – Atlanta, no pardon but Bad Fani!

If she couldn’t win here, she might not be able to win anywhere — not even in her home state of South Carolina, where the race turns next. And even if she did win her home state, she would still face a daunting path forward.

Trump leads the national polls by more than 50 percentage points with just six weeks to go until Super Tuesday, when nearly half of all the delegates to the Republican convention will be awarded. Without an enormous shift, he would secure the nomination in mid-March.

Haley’s best chance

Why was New Hampshire such an excellent opportunity for her?

  • The polls: New Hampshire was the only state where the polls showed her within striking distance. She trailed by a mere 15 points in the state, compared with her 50-plus-point deficit nationwide. She isn’t within 30 points in any other state, including her home state of South Carolina.
  • History: The state has a long track record of backing moderate and mainstream Republican candidates, including John McCain and Mitt Romney. Trump won the state with 35 percent of the vote in 2016, but mostly because the moderate vote was divided.
  • The electorate: Haley fares best among college graduates and moderates, and the New Hampshire electorate is full of those voters. The state ranks eighth in the college-educated  of the population, and unlike in many states, unaffiliated voters are allowed to participate in the Republican primary.
  • The media: New Hampshire’s first-in-the-nation primary receives far more media attention than later contests. It offered the possibility — if only a faint one — that a win could change her fortunes elsewhere.

Haley made good on all of these advantages yesterday. She won 74 percent of moderates, according to the exit polls, along with 58 percent of college graduates and 66 percent of voters who weren’t registered Republicans.

Conservative votes

But it wasn’t close to enough. Haley lost Republicans by a staggering 74 percent to 25 percent — an important group in a Republican primary. Conservatives gave Trump a full 70 percent of the vote. Voters without a college degree backed Trump by 2 to 1.

In other Republican primaries, numbers like these will yield a rout. Conservatives, Republicans and voters without a degree will represent a far greater  of the electorate. There is no credible path for her to win the nomination of a conservative, working-class party while falling this short among conservative, working-class voters.

Worse, Haley’s strength among independents and Democrats will make it even harder for her to expand her appeal, as Trump and other Republicans will depict her campaign as a liberal Trojan horse.

If Haley had won New Hampshire, the possibility of riding the momentum into later states and broadening her appeal would have remained. Not anymore. Instead, it’s Trump who has the momentum. He has gained nationwide in polls taken since the Iowa caucuses. Even skeptical Republican officials who were seen as Haley’s likeliest allies, like Tim Scott or Marco Rubio, have gotten behind the former president in recent days.

Whether the race is “over” or not, the New Hampshire result puts Trump on a comfortable path to the nomination. If he’s convicted of a crime, perhaps he’ll lose the nomination at the convention. But by the usual rules of primary elections, there’s just not much time for the race to change. If it doesn’t, Trump could easily sweep all 50 states.

Related: “It is now clear that Donald Trump will be the Republican nominee,” President Biden said in a statement. “The stakes could not be higher.”

More on the Republican primary

More on the Democratic primary

 

 

ATTACHMENT THIRTEEN – FROM WASHPOST

5 TAKEAWAYS FROM THE NEW HAMPSHIRE PRIMARY

Analysis by Aaron Blake  January 23, 2024 at 10:16 p.m. EST

 

Former president Donald Trump won the New Hampshire Republican presidential primary on Tuesday, delivering his second major statement in the first two states of the 2024 GOP nominating contest. The win seemingly forecloses a path forward for his lone major opponent, Nikki Haley.

Trump led the former U.N. ambassador 55 percent to 44 percent, with 72 percent of expected votes counted. He also won a majority of the vote in the Iowa caucuses last week, carrying the state by 30 points.

Shortly after the race was called for Trump, Haley signaled that she won’t yet drop out, declaring: “This race is far from over.” Trump, taking the stage later, called Haley an “impostor” and appeared angry that she hadn’t bowed out, while saying, “I don’t get too angry. I get even.”

Below are some takeaways — including from a Democratic primary that President Biden appears to have won easily.

 

1. It looks all but over

It’s not a novel take, but it’s true. If there was one state that appeared winnable for someone not named Trump, it was New Hampshire for Haley. And while she appears to have over-performed some late polling, she came up well short of a good argument for how this race might be competitive.

Early exit polls showed that nearly half of the voters who made up the state’s GOP primary electorate weren’t registered Republicans and 6 percent of the voters personally identified as Democrats. The electorate was also more educated, libertarian and supportive of abortion rights than that of virtually any other significant GOP contest.

Haley’s support drew disproportionately from the political middle — about 7 out of 10 Haley voters weren’t registered Republicans, and she won just 11 percent of “very conservative” voters — and that middle just isn’t as robust elsewhere. Independents can’t even vote in many other states’ primaries.

If you were making an idealistic case for Haley having a shot at least keeping things in doubt, you’d say she could have a strong showing in her home state of South Carolina on Feb. 24. But right now, the polls suggest that the state is only a little bit closer than a national race that favors Trump by more than 50 points.

A month is also a long time to keep a campaign rolling without much in the way of momentum or belief. We’ve seen how the official Republican Party has largely deemed Trump the presumptive nominee and rallied behind him, and that will surely continue in the hours and days ahead. That will apply pressure on Haley to fall in line if she wants to have a future in the party.

2. Haley voters were meh about her, which says something about Trump

Perhaps the most striking finding from the early exit polls concerned how much voters’ feelings about the candidates affected their votes.

Trump voters, no surprise, cited strongly favorable views of him, with 8 in 10 expressing that motivation.

But for Haley, that number was far lower: only about one-third. Nearly 3 in 10 expressed some reservations about her, and 4 in 10 said their vote was mostly about dislike for the other candidates — or, more aptly, candidate.

This is a pretty searing indictment of any path to victory Haley might have had. If she can’t make voters get excited about her, she’s definitely not going to win in the many less-favorable states ahead. The GOP isn’t close to being anti-Trump enough to build a candidacy around that.

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But when it comes to the general election, the result was also a remarkable commentary on Trump — the fact that so many voters who felt so meh about Haley turned out to register what amounted to protest votes.

New Hampshire is an unusual state. It’s less favorable to Trump than other swing states. He lost it by more than seven points in 2020, and a recent poll showed Biden taking 52 percent of the vote there despite just a 38 percent approval rating.

 this article

But if it’s at all reflective of how reluctant even a small portion of the GOP base is to vote for Trump, the former president has real work to do in patching things up after the primaries.

3. The other big exit poll numbers

A few other findings that struck us from the early exit polls:

·         Fewer New Hampshire voters denied the results of the 2020 election (51 percent) than did Iowa voters (66 percent). This again reinforces how unusual New Hampshire’s electorate is; polls generally show around 6 in 10 Republicans reject the 2020 results. But also consider that even among this moderate Republican primary electorate, a majority are election-deniers.

·         67 percent of voters opposed a federal law banning most or all abortions, compared with 27 percent who favored one.

·         42 percent of voters said Trump wouldn’t be fit to serve as president if he’s convicted of a crime — up from 31 percent in Iowa. Again, this could have major implications for the general election, even if the vast majority of those voters ultimately rally to Trump.

4. Haley’s reasons for staying in appear elusive

Haley: New Hampshire ‘is first in the nation,’ not the last

Former U.N. ambassador Nikki Haley vowed to stay in the race after losing the New Hampshire primary on Jan. 24. (Video: The Washington Post, Photo: Melina Mara/The Washington Post)

Haley’s argument for staying in the race effectively boiled down to the idea that Republicans can’t take a chance on moving forward with Trump because of his poor electoral track record.

“A Trump nomination is a Biden win and a Kamala Harris presidency,” Haley said, “The first party to retire its 80-year-old candidate is going to be the party that wins this election.” (Trump is actually 77.)

She also cited Trump’s “senior moments,” a growing theme for Trump’s opponents.

If you’re to distill this message, it sounds as if Haley aims to wait it out until Republicans happen upon a realization about Trump that they’ve stubbornly refused to embrace. But it’s a difficult argument to make when a strong majority of Republicans believe Trump didn’t actually lose the 2020 election in the first place.

Or perhaps Haley just wants to play wait-and-see. Part of the reason Trump’s opponents fought with one another so hard is undoubtedly because they hoped some future event — in one of Trump’s legal cases, for example — would eventually shake up the race.

But that eventuality appears as distant as ever. Republicans by and large see Trump’s legal issues as a reason to stand by him. And it’s not even clear when he will stand trial in any of his various cases.

 

5. Biden’s apparent big win erases any doubt

The GOP primary wasn’t the only one in which a seemingly decisive verdict was rendered — not just for the state, but probably for the rest of the calendar.

The early results suggested Biden would win the Democratic primary overwhelmingly, despite not campaigning in the state and his name not appearing on the ballot over a primary calendar dispute.

Technically speaking, we don’t yet know how many votes Biden got, because the vast majority of ballots are write-ins that won’t be tabulated for a while. Only 19 percent have been allocated to him so far. But that plus the rest of the write-in votes led Rep. Dean Phillips (D-Minn.), 72 percent to 21 percent, and it’s likely that a huge chunk of that 72 percent will go to Biden.

Democrat Marianne Williamson was taking another 5 percent.

The result isn’t hugely surprising, but it sent a strong signal that there’s little doubt about Biden winning the Democratic nomination again.

Future states in which Biden is actually on the ballot should allow for a better gauge of how many Democratic voters are dug in against him.

 

ATTACHMENT FOURTEEN – FROM SALON

"DELUSIONAL": TRUMP'S RANT AGAINST NIKKI HALEY GETS WEIRDER ON TRUTH SOCIAL

It is somewhat of a new Trump tradition

By GABRIELLA FERRIGINE, News Fellow  PUBLISHED JANUARY 24, 2024 11:55AM (EST)

 

Despite securing the victory at the New Hampshire primary on Tuesday, Donald Trump still took to his TruthSocial platform to rant about Republican opponent Nikki Haley. Former federal prosecutor and editor-in-chief of MediasTouch network Ron Filipkowski d a selection Trump's posts on X/Twitter, noting how the former president was "melting down after telling his people for a week he was going to win by 30."

"HALEY said she had to WIN in New Hampshire. SHE DIDN'T!!!" Trump wrote, adding "DELUSIONAL" in another Truth posted shortly thereafter.

The ex-president also hit out at Haley in his post-race speech to his supporters, poking fun at her for speaking to supporters after the primary was called. “I have to tell you — it was very interesting, because I said, ‘Wow what a great victory,’ but then somebody ran up to the stage all dressed up nicely when it was at 7, but now I just walked up, and it was at 14,” Trump said. “Let’s not have somebody take a victory when she had a very bad night. She had a very bad night." The ex-president continued by observing how, “I felt I should do this, because I find in life, you can’t let people get away with bullshit. You can’t. And when I watched her in the fancy dress … I said, ‘What’s she doing?’ We won. And she did the same thing last week.”

Trump also took aim at New Hampshire Governor Chris Sununu, a Republican, for his endorsement of Haley, saying, “This guy — he’s got to be on something. I’ve never seen anybody with energy. He’s like hopscotch."

Speaking to Sen. Tim Scott, R-S.C., who was standing behind him on stage, Trump said, “Did you ever think [about how] she actually appointed you, Tim? … And you’re the senator of her state? You must really hate her." Haley's home state is South Carolina, where she served as governor from 2011 to 2017. 

“I just love you,” Scott replied with a laugh. 

 

 

ATTACHMENT FIFTEEN – FROM HUFFINGTON POST

TRUMP, UNDER CRIMINAL PROSECUTION FOR HIS COUP ATTEMPT, WINS NEW HAMPSHIRE ANYWAY

But the former — and possibly future — president victory margin appears to have been considerably narrower than the latest polling had indicated.

By S.V. Date   Jan 23, 2024, 08:02 PM EST

 

CONCORD, N.H. ― Despite facing both federal and Georgia state prosecutions related to his coup attempt, Donald Trump nevertheless beat Nikki Haley in the New Hampshire primary Tuesday, although by a narrower margin that recent polls had suggested.

The former president had been leading Haley, his own United Nations ambassador, by 16-18 points in the most recent polling. Exit poll results and early returns Tuesday evening indicate that the final margin will be smaller.

Trump, speaking at his election night party in Nashua, appeared angry that Haley was not dropping out, and instead had already taken the stage and vowed to continue her campaign.

“I don’t get angry, I get even,” he said. “You can’t let people get away with bullshit. And when I watched her in the fancydress ― that probably wasn’t so fancy ― come up, I said, ‘What’s she doing? We won.’”

He then launched into a rant filled with his familiar lies about the 2020 election having been stolen from him, including a new one that he had won the 2020 general election in New Hampshire, when in fact he had lost it by 60,000 votes or 7 percentage points.

Haley has for days insisted she would continue her campaign into South Carolina, where she was twice elected governor, regardless of the outcome in New Hampshire. Indeed, her staff has already said she will hold a rally in Charleston Wednesday night.

For Trump though, even a narrower-than-expected win is still a win, his second straight since the GOP primary contests began eight days ago in the Iowa caucuses. Trump finished 30 points ahead of both Haley and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who a year earlier was beating Trump in both national and early state polls.

New Hampshire was the one state where Haley seemed competitive with Trump. In the next major contest, the primary in her home state of South Carolina, she trails Trump by an average 37 points. Trump also enjoys a massive lead in national polls, which will likely translate into big wins on Super Tuesday’s 16 primaries and caucuses across the country on March 5.

Both of those polling leads, however, could shrink based on New Hampshire’s result.

The Super Tuesday elections come one day after the scheduled start of his trial in Washington on four felony charges related to his words and actions around the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol by a mob of his followers designed to coerce then-Vice President Mike Pence and Congress into awarding him a second term even though he had lost the 2020 election.

Trump is claiming he cannot be prosecuted for any of those charges because he had “total immunity” while he was president. An appeals court is set to rule soon on that, which Trump will almost certainly take to the U.S. Supreme Court if the decision goes against him.

The delays caused by his appeal appear likely to delay the start of the trial, although it is unclear by how much.

Trump is also facing a second federal prosecution in South Florida for refusing to turn over secret documents he took with him from the White House to his Palm Beach country club. There is also a Georgia state prosecution for his attempt to overturn his election loss in that state, as well as a New York state indictment accusing him of falsifying business records to hide a $130,000 hush money payment to a porn actor in the days before the 2016 election.

Trump nevertheless appears to have the support of the majority of GOP primary voters. Many Republicans, including DeSantis, who endorsed Trump after ending his campaign for the nomination on Sunday, said the 91 felony charges across four indictments increased Trump’s popularity and made it impossible for any rival to defeat him in the primaries.

So – the bigger the criminal, the bigger the vote.  The only opponent T has to fear would be Santos, Menendez or Gilgo/Murdaugh/Baldwin

 

ATTACHMENT SIXTEEN – FROM THE DAILY MAIL

DONALD MAKES HISTORY... NIKKI'S DELUDED... JOE LOOKS WEAKER BY THE DAY... AND THE ONE SURPRISING HIDDEN RESULT THAT WILL REALLY DECIDE TRUMP'S FATE: SCOTT JENNINGS'S MUST-READ NEW HAMPSHIRE PRIMARIES ANALYSIS

By SCOTT JENNINGS FOR DAILYMAIL.COM   PUBLISHED: 09:50 EST, 24 January 2024 | UPDATED: 10:05 EST, 24 January 2024

 

Slice it any way you want - Donald Trump has made history in the 2024 Republican primary race.

No other non-incumbent GOP candidate has won the first two presidential nominating contests in the modern-era - and Trump has done it with resounding victories in Iowa and New Hampshire.

The former president is at the top of the GOP heap and looks unbeatable.

But former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley's campaign has exposed a serious liability for the front-runner – and voters have expressed another grave concern that may be almost completely out of Trump's hands.

NIKKI WON'T QUIT - JUST NOT YET

New Hampshire was the most fertile ground Haley will get in this 2024 race, and she came up short. Yet, the former governor continues to make head-scratching statements that don't match reality.

Haley's top supporter in New Hampshire, Governor Chris Sununu, predicted in mid-December that she would win his state in a 'landslide.'

As of this writing, with 91% of the vote counted, she lost by more than 11 percentage points.

So, when she took to the podium at her campaign HQ last night, after news networks began calling the race for Trump, the country collectively held its breath for her announcement.

Was she dropping out?

No!

When Haley took to the podium at her campaign HQ last night, after news networks began calling the race for Trump, the country collectively held its breath for her announcement. Was she dropping out?

Haley was defiant. She took shots at Trump's mental acuity, raised concerns over his looming trials and demanded that Trump debate her. (Why would he start now?)

Haley says she'll stay in the contest through her home state's February 24th primary.

The question is… why?

TRUMP'S 'IN-DEPENDENCE' PROBLEM

Seventy-four percent of card-carrying Republicans went for Trump, while just 24 percent went for Haley, according to the CNN exit polls.

Trump's huge GOP-only number (which somewhat matches his national polling in the party) shows the tough road ahead for Haley.

But New Hampshire allows unaffiliated voters to vote in the primary of their choice, and Haley benefited from that by winning 66 percent of 'undeclared' voters - a.k.a independents.

That's a general election red flag for Trump.

In a close contest with President Biden in November, independent voters may make the difference and in New Hampshire, Haley held the key to their votes.

However, upcoming states won't feature as many non-Republicans in the primary. Many are closed primaries, where only party members can vote. And there's another reason Trump doesn't need to worry too much. Republican voters are ticked off about President Biden's open border - and Trump owns the immigration issue.

Seventy-four percent of card-carrying Republicans went for Trump, while just 24 percent went for Haley, according to the CNN exit polls.

Exit polls showed immigration ranked high as an important issue for GOP primary-goers, and Trump rolled among those for whom it is the top concern earning 77 percent of that vote.

Expect a flood of Republican leadership endorsements in the days ahead, as elected party officials pronounce Trump the presumptive nominee.

So, will Haley actually make it to South Carolina on February 24?

Color me skeptical.

Nobody wants to take a beating in their own backyard and, right now, Haley is trailing Trump by 30 points in Palmetto State polling.

VICE PRESIDENT HALEY? DON'T BET ON IT

Is Haley angling for a V.P. spot? That's a longshot.

Is she riding out the remaining donor money left in the campaign coffers?

That's more likely.

Still some conservative voices are urging Trump to make a quick running-mate pick, even though historically nominees wait until the summer, closer to their party's convention, to announce their choice.

Who's in the running?

The New Hampshire campaign trail looked like an audition with several folks jumping on the Trump train, including former rivals, South Carolina Senator Tim Scott and entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy.

Rising GOP star, New York Congresswoman Elise Stefanik, was also in the mix.

And as they'll learn, standing behind the former president, puts you squarely in the spotlight.

IMPOSTER-OUS: TRUMP ANGRY IN VICTORY

If Trump was worried about corralling Haley's moderate supporters – he didn't let on last night.

After winning by double digits and effectively ending the GOP primary for president in his favor, Trump was… irritated!

Gone was the graciousness toward his opponents that he exhibited in post-Iowa caucus speech, as he railed against Haley's insistence that she will fight on despite losing handily twice in a row.

'Imposter,' Trump called her.

'In life you can't let people get away with bulls***,' he said. 'You just can't do that. When I watched her, the fancy dress, it probably wasn't so I said, what is she doing? We won.'

Trump was so mad that he turned to Senator Scott, whom Haley appointed to the Senate years ago, and said, 'You must really hate her.'

Scott rushed up beside Trump and quipped: 'I just love you.'

Awkward!

Get used to it, Tim.

THAT OTHER PESKY OPPONENT

Haley wasn't the only losing candidate who refused to silently sulk off into the night on Tuesday.

In the Democratic primary, Minnesota Congressman Dean Phillips captured nearly 20 percent of the vote, with 90 percent of the ballots counted.

That performance is about in line with the pre-primary polling, but it's not a good look for a weak incumbent president to be leaking one-fifth of the Democratic base.

Trump was so mad that he turned to Senator Scott, whom Haley appointed to the Senate years ago, and said, 'You must really hate her.' Scott rushed up beside Trump and quipped: 'I just love you.'

In the Democratic primary, Minnesota Congressman Dean Phillips captured nearly 20 percent of the vote, with 90 percent of the ballots counted.

Phillips vowed to stay in the hunt through the South Carolina and Michigan primaries next month and beyond. And as a multi-millionaire who has poured buckets of his own cash into his campaign - he has the juice to do it.

THE BIGGEST KNOWN UNKNOWN

The biggest unknown in the 2024 election has little to do with primaries, or debates, or election night concession speeches.

Keep your eyes on the courtrooms.

The timing matters for when Trump stands trial in Washington D.C. in the special counsel's January 6th case, where he faces four serious criminal indictments for allegedly attempting to overturn the results of the 2020 election.

The Supreme Court is looking at how the Justice Department has done about prosecuting January 6 rioters, and that puts Trump's scheduled March 4th trial date seems very much in doubt.

The biggest unknown in the 2024 election has little to do with primaries, or debates, or election night concession speeches.

The question is: if the case is pushed back, will it happen before general election votes are cast?

Exit polls in both Iowa and New Hampshire show a significant cohort of voters — even some Republicans — say they would find Trump 'unfit' for the presidency should he be convicted of a crime.

What happens in that jury room, may have more impact on Trump's ability to win than any TV ad or strategy that any nominee can conjure.

At least for now, the Republican primary contest appears to be decided, but it's a long road to November, especially when it begins on January 24.

 

 

ATTACHMENT SEVENTEEN – FROM SALON

DON'T LET TRUMP'S PRIMARY DOMINANCE DECEIVE YOU

Behind the curtain, the GOP is tearing itself apart

By AMANDA MARCOTTE  Senior Writer  PUBLISHED JANUARY 25, 2024 6:00AM (EST)

 

Keeping with his habit of being the worst person alive, Donald Trump reacted to his victory in New Hampshire's Republican primary Tuesday by being a sore winner. Despite besting former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley by 11 points, Trump screeched and whined as if she were a prosecutor handing down more indictments. He threatened to "get even" with her, mocked her clothes, and baselessly accused her of secret crimes. He even took his narcissistic injury out on Sen. Tim Scott, R-S.C., forcing Scott to say "I just love you" in a maximally humiliating fashion. 

Trump kept it up on Truth Social afterward, issuing all-caps posts about Haley like "DELUSIONAL" and "SHE CAME IN THIRD LAST WEEK!" 

He later claimed that anyone who offers Haley financial support "from this moment forth" will be "permanently barred from the MAGA camp." 

Trump rants that anyone who contributes to Nikki Haley will be barred from MAGA camp

Part of this, of course, is Trump's severe personality disorders, which have only intensified in recent months, likely due to his advanced age and the stress of being under 91 felony indictments, along with his numerous civil lawsuits. But he's also likely freaking out in large part because his wins in both Iowa and New Hampshire, upon further investigation, aren't as impressive as they look. Despite the headlines about Republicans lining up behind Trump, there's significant evidence that, in fact, his leadership is causing the party to fracture and go to war with itself. Which is not where Republicans want to be going into a presidential election. 

 

NBC exit polls showed only 50% of voters in the New Hampshire GOP race self-identified as Republicans and 44% were independents. While proud Republicans broke heavily for Trump, Haley got 58% of independents, most of whom said they were "moderate" or "conservative." These numbers suggest a large number of people who would have called themselves Republicans in the past have left the party and turned out to vote against Trump. 

This comports with analyses from Politico, the Washington Post, the Hill and Reuters that suggest that a small but significant number of Republican voters have left out of disgust for Trump, and won't return until he's gone. These people aren't just sitting on their hands at home, either. Record turnout in New Hampshire was driven in large part by independent voters — many who leaned Republican in the past — who were trying to stop Trump from winning. 

Getting away from the numbers, there are other, more colorful signs that Republicans are at war with themselves. As Melissa Ryan at Ctrl Alt Right Delete reported Sunday, "Several state Republican parties are currently dealing with some form of crisis," and in most cases, the conflict started because the MAGA power grab is being resisted by the few remaining Republicans not willing to see their party go full fascist. 

Trump's New Hampshire victory speech shows he's running out of time to hide

"They’re broke, plagued by in-fighting and power struggles, fixated on election denial conspiracies, and bogged down by lawsuits and criminal investigations," Ryan writes. She flags the Florida GOP maelstrom in the wake of the Moms for Liberty-linked leader being investigated for rape. She links to November reporting from the Washington Post over bankruptcy issues and in-fighting in the GOP in Arizona, Georgia and Michigan, all of which are struggling because election denialists are locking horns with party officials who understand this nuttiness scares off voters they need to win. All of this is also running off donors, who are wary of giving money to people behaving so erratically. 

Wednesday, the Arizona GOP chairman resigned, after election denialist — and losing gubernatorial candidate — Kari Lake released a tape in which he appears to ask if there's "any number" she could cite that would convince her not to run as a Republican in the 2024 Senate race. 

As Ryan wrote in an earlier newsletter, Trump and the MAGA movement have "essentially given up on winning free and fair elections," hoping they can cheat their way to victory instead. Or even, as January 6 showed, use violence to overcome that pesky "voters hate us" problem. It's a radicalizing process that mirrors much of what we see in conservative Christian churches across the country. Their numbers are shrinking, because moderate and sensible people are leaving the pews out of disgust for right-wing politics. But the small number that remain get angrier and more vindictive, focused on "revenge" against everyone else for rejecting them, instead of moderating their views to be more attractive. 

The dysfunction in Congress reflects the way that the radicalism of MAGA makes it hard for Republicans to be a functioning political party. Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., rose to power because of his MAGA bona fides and has signaled repeatedly that he's taking his marching orders from Trump. But he's already in the crosshairs of the same in-fighting dynamics that destroyed his predecessor, Rep. Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif. He's getting abuse from extremists such as Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, R-Ga. They want him to threaten government shutdowns, which he is resisting — despite his own far-right politics — presumably because he knows those antics only hurt his party's chances in an election year. 

Wednesday, the intra-GOP conflict spread to Rep. James Comer, R-Ky., who is leading the so-called "impeachment inquiry" into President Joe Biden. Comer has never really hidden that the investigation is fake. When asked by the New York Times about "investigating" a man who has done nothing illegal, Comer cracked that "the customer's always right," referring to donors and voters who want to see Biden harassed this way. The whole point of this has always been to create an illusion of scandal Republicans can use to deflect criticism from Trump's actual crimes and misdeeds.

But that is not enough any longer for some in the party.  Anonymous Republican sources griped this week to the Messenger that Comer "continues to embarrass himself and House Republicans" and it's "been a parade of embarrassments." The complaint appears to be that he hasn't turned up any real evidence. But again, he never seemed to expect any. The "inquiry" was fake from the beginning. The whole thing illustrates the tension caused by the MAGA takeover. What pleases the extremist base — fake investigations, the Big Lie, far-right theatrics — turns off everyone else, including some voters Republicans need to win. 

To outsiders, it would seem the answer to the GOP's dilemma is obvious: Drop the MAGA nuts, quit with the outrageous lies and false accusations, and focus on trying to appear, if only a little, like a normal political party. But party leaders obviously feel they can't do that, not without alienating base voters they need. So instead, they put their faith in the idea that Trump is a unifying figure who can secure victory in November by lining up all the warring factions behind himself. Watching one politician after another debase themselves by kissing Trump's feet, one can see why they believe that. Of course ruling by fear is easier when the people you're dominating depend on the party for their career. For ordinary voters who might otherwise vote Republican if not for their disgust, there's good reason to think many of them are just walking away. 

·         “I absolutely hate Trump": A "whole swath" of GOP voters say they're not falling for MAGA again

·         Trump's dominating Iowa win reveals massive cracks in his coalition

·         House Republicans cry James Comer's "clueless investigation" is a "disaster": report



ATTACHMENT EIGHTEEN – FROM NY POST

NIKKI HALEY RAISES $2.6M POST-NEW HAMPSHIRE DESPITE BLACKLIST THREATS FROM TRUMP

By Diana Glebova  Published Jan. 26, 2024, 11:40 a.m. ET

MORE ON:2024 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

·         Kamala Harris says poor Biden polling due to not taking credit for ‘accomplishments’ as she passes border crisis buck

·         Trump’s New Hampshire triumph: Letters to the Editor — Jan. 27, 2024

·         Trump leads Nikki Haley by 27% in first South Carolina poll since NH primary

·         RNC member drops bid to call Trump ‘presumptive nominee’ after ex-prez’s disapproval

 

Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley has hauled in $2.6 million since losing to Donald Trump in Tuesday’s New Hampshire primary, according to her campaign.

The 48-hour haul includes $1.2 million in small-dollar and digital donations and comes on the heels of the former president threatening to blacklist everyone who donates to his former ambassador to the United Nations.

“Anybody that makes a ‘Contribution’ to Birdbrain, from this moment forth, will be permanently barred from the MAGA camp,” Trump, 77, said in a Thursday Truth Social post, using his preferred disparaging nickname for Haley, 52.

“Donald Trump’s threats highlight the stark choice in this election: personal vendettas or real conservative leadership,” Haley spokesperson AnnMarie Graham-Barnes said.

“Trump’s scheme blew up in his face. The contributions to the Haley campaign are pouring in—proof that people are sick of the drama and are rallying behind Nikki’s vision for a strong and proud America.”

But Haley’s cash pile has also taken a hit after her second-place finish in the Granite State

Several of her major donors have said they are reconsidering their flow of funds because they don’t see a path to her getting the nomination.

Dmitri Mehlhorn, a political philanthropy adviser for Democrat and Haley megadonor Reid Hoffman, told The Post this week that Haley will have to show a “new potential path to victory” before receiving more cash from the billionaire.

“It is still possible that Governor Haley will be able to persuade voters that Trump is no longer stable and cannot carry their banner into the fall campaign,” Melhorn said Wednesday. “Before recommending another investment at this later stage in the process, however, I would need to see a new potential path to victory given that she did not win New Hampshire.”

Metal magnate Andy Sabin also expressed hesitancy Wednesday about continuing to fund her campaign.

“You have to know when to hold them. You got to know when to fold them. You got to know when to walk away. It’s time for Nikki Haley to walk away,” Sabin told Fox Business host Neil Cavuto Wednesday, arguing that “there’s absolutely no upside to her going to South Carolina.”

Haley has nearly a dozen fundraisers planned ahead of the Feb. 24 primary in her home state.

 

 

ATTACHMENT NINETEEN – FROM FOX

HALEY PUSHES BACK AT TRUMP SUGGESTION SHE'LL DROP OUT AFTER NH PRIMARY: 'I DON'T DO WHAT HE TELLS ME TO DO'

Nikki Haley fires back against questions regarding her potential political 'obituary'

By Paul Steinhauser   Published January 23, 2024 11:54am EST

 

HAMPTON, N.H. - Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley says she does not take orders from former President Trump.

"I don't do what he tells me to do," Haley, a former two-term South Carolina governor who later served as U.N. ambassador in the Trump administration, told Fox News and other news organizations as she took questions from reporters outside a polling station in a coastal New Hampshire town on Tuesday morning.

Trump entered Tuesday's GOP presidential primary in New Hampshire holding a formidable double-digit lead over Haley in the final public opinion polls, and the former president was aiming for another convincing victory after crushing Haley and Florida Gov. DeSantis a week ago in Iowa's low-turnout presidential caucuses. 

NEW HAMPSHIRE PRIMARY SHOWDOWN: CAN HALEY SLOW DOWN TRUMP'S PUSH FOR THE GOP PRESIDENTIAL NOMINATION ?

DeSantis, who was a distant third in the surveys in New Hampshire, dropped out of the race on Sunday and endorsed Trump.

HALEY PLEDGES ‘I’M IN THIS FOR THE LONG HAUL' IN RACE AGAINST TRUMP

At a rally on primary eve in Laconia, the former president noted that "we started off with 13 [GOP White House candidates] and now we're down to two people."

"And I think one person will be gone probably tomorrow," he predicted, as he pointed toward Haley.

Pushing back against questions from reporters on what percentage of the vote she needs in New Hampshire to continue on to South Carolina - her home state that holds the next major GOP presidential nominating contest on Feb. 24 - Haley said, "We’ll know strong when the numbers come in. It's not like a certain number. I don't go there and say, Oh, I have to have this number. I have to have that number."

"And I'm not going to talk about an obituary just because y'all think we have to talk about it," she told reporters. "I'm going to talk about running the tape and saving this country, I think we have to do it. I'm a fighter. I work hard. And I do it because I love this country. And we're gonna go and fight until the very last poll closes. And then we're headed to my sweet state of South Carolina. And we're gonna make the case there as well."

HALEY REVEALS HER PITCH TO DESANTIS SUPPORTERS

Campaign manager Betsy Ankney told reporters on Saturday that Haley will hold a large event in her hometown of Charleston, South Carolina, on Wednesday, the same day that the campaign will launch a $4 million statewide ad blitz.

The campaign also told Fox News on Tuesday morning that they have hauled in $1.5 million in fundraising since DeSantis suspended his campaign on Sunday afternoon.

"We're going to South Carolina, we have put in the ad buy. We're there," Haley emphasized on Tuesday. "This has always been a marathon. It's never been a sprint. We wanted to be strong in Iowa. We want to be stronger than that in New Hampshire. We're gonna be even stronger than that in South Carolina. We're running the tape."

It is the latest instance that Haley has spotlighted the durability of her campaign.

Haley said in a Fox News Digital interview on Sunday evening that she would "absolutely" continue on to South Carolina regardless of her finish in New Hampshire.

Additionally, Haley argued in a separate Fox News interview with Martha MacCallum on Monday on "The Story" that "the political and media elite say everybody needs to coalesce around Donald Trump…We don't believe in coronations in this country. We believe in democracy. I'm in this for the long haul." 

Trump predicted another major win on Tuesday, telling supporters at a rally in Rochester, New Hampshire, on Sunday night, "I think we're going to have the same kind of result here as we did last week in Iowa."

DOWN AND OUT: WHAT WENT WRONG WITH THE DESANTIS CAMPAIGN

However, New Hampshire — where independent voters who make up roughly 40% of the electorate can vote in either major party's contest and have long played an influential role in the state's storied presidential primary — may be fertile ground for Haley.

The latest surveys indicate Trump dominating among registered Republicans, with Haley grabbing majority support among independents. However, there are likely more Republicans than independents who will vote in Tuesday's GOP primary.

Moderating temperatures on Tuesday could help what is already forecast as a record voter turnout.

Republican Gov. Chris Sununu of New Hampshire, Haley's top surrogate and adviser in the state, told Fox News that "the Secretary of State has predicted a record turnout. So I think it'd be hard to ask for more than that."

However, he spotlighted that "the number of folks that are saying, 'Hey, I've never voted in a primary before, but I'm coming out.' That's a great sign. And that's not just a great sign in terms of what Nikki can do. It's a great sign for New Hampshire. It's a great sign of voter involvement. Everyone wants to get engaged."

 

 

ATTACHMENT TWENTY – FROM BREITBART

NIKKI HALEY PROJECTS PATH BEYOND NEW HAMPSHIRE BEFORE RESULTS ARE EVEN IN, RELIES ON NON-CONSERVATIVE VOTERS

By HANNAH BLEAU KNUDSEN  23 Jan 2024

 

Presidential hopeful Nikki Haley is projecting a path beyond New Hampshire before results are even in, with her campaign releasing a memo clarifying that she is not going anywhere.

“It’s officially a two-person race. It’s Nikki Haley vs. Donald Trump,” a memo released by Haley’s campaign on New Hampshire’s primary day reads, boasting of the millions of dollars the campaign has raised.

“The political class and media want to give Donald Trump a coronation,” it continues. “They say the race is over.”

However, Haley’s campaign declares, “That isn’t how this works.”

“Roughly 50 percent of Republican primary voters want an alternative to Donald Trump. Seventy-five percent of the country wants an option other than Donald Trump and Joe Biden,” the memo reads, contending that Haley previously faced uphill battles in South Carolina when “no one” thought she had a chance. Further, Haley’s campaign identifies her as the “last hope to get our party and our country back on track.”

The memo continues, essentially dismissing any less-than-positive results that should come out of New Hampshire on Tuesday. While the campaign acknowledged that it is beneficial for Haley that independent and unaffiliated voters can vote in the Granite State’s primary, likely assisting Haley, it asserted that the “path through Super Tuesday includes more states than not that have this dynamic.”

The memo lays out what it apparently views as Haley’s path to victory, including a strong performance in South Carolina, which has no party registration. Then the campaign moves on to Michigan, the memo states, which has an open primary.

The memo adds that 11 of the 16 Super Tuesday states have open or “semi-open” primaries. In other words, the campaign believes there is “significant fertile ground” for Haley on Super Tuesday, attracting non-conservative voters.

“After Super Tuesday, we will have a very good picture of where this race stands,” the memo reads, instructing everyone to “take a deep breath” beforehand.

In other words, regardless of the outcome of New Hampshire’s primary, Haley intends to roll along, relying on moderates and independents — not the conservative base — to help her take down Trump:

The latest average of polls in New Hampshire shows Trump leading Haley by 19.3 percent.

 

 

 

ATTACHMENT TWENTY ONE – FROM SALON

SUSAN COLLINS CLAIMS SHE WON'T BACK TRUMP IF HE WINS THE GOP NOMINATION

The Maine lawmaker was among seven GOP senators who in 2021 voted to convict Trump in connection to Jan. 6

By GABRIELLA FERRIGINE  News Fellow  PUBLISHED JANUARY 24, 2024 4:00PM (EST)

 

Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine, has said she will not endorse former president Donald Trump if he wins the GOP nomination for the 2024 presidential election.

As the Hill reported on Wednesday, when asked if she could envision supporting Trump if he secures the nomination, Collins said, "I do not at this point."

Trump edged out Republican running mate and former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley in the New Hampshire primary on Tuesday; however, Haley had vowed to stay in the race for the nomination. Colling expressed approval at this decision, saying, “I’m glad to hear last night that Nikki Haley is determined to stay in [the race.] I think the more people see of her, particularly since she appears to be the only alternative to Donald Trump right now, the more impressed they will be." 

As The Hill noted, Collins is a power player when it comes to having legislation passed in Congress, and was also one of seven Senate Republicans who voted to convict Trump in 2021 in connection to inciting the deadly Capitol riots on Jan 6. Collins argued that the insurrection "was the culmination of a steady stream of provocations by President Trump," per Bangor Daily News. "My vote in this trial stems from my own duty to defend the Constitution of the United States," she said. "The abuse of power and betrayal of his oath by President Trump meet the constitutional standard of high crimes and misdemeanors."

The Maine senator was also one of three Republican senators who voted in opposition to Trump’s attempt to repeal the Affordable Care Act in 2017. Collins's turning away from the former president is all the more noteworthy because, as The Hill pointed out, an increasing number of GOP senators are vocalizing support for Trump as the 2024 elections grow nearer. 

 

ATTACHMENT TWENTY TWO – FROM TIME

WHY EVANGELICALS WENT ALL IN ON TRUMP, AGAIN

BY SAMUEL L. PERRY   JANUARY 24, 2024 12:21 PM EST

Perry (@profsamperry) is a Professor of Sociology at the University of Oklahoma. He is among the nation’s leading experts on conservative Christianity in American politics, race, sexuality, and families. His most recent books include the award-winning Taking America Back for God (with Andrew Whitehead) and The Flag and the Cross (with Philip Gorski).

Ron DeSantis’ presidential campaign may have ended on Sunday, January 21st, but whatever competition Trump may have faced for the hearts of white evangelical voters ended months ago. Perhaps “competition” is being too generous. In poll after poll, Trump maintained double-digit leads over his rivals among white evangelicals. Yet there were flickers of hope that Trump’s evangelical support was vulnerable, particularly among the most devout.

But they were only flickers.

In March 2023, psychologist Joshua Grubbs and I asked a national sample of Americans who they planned on voting for in the next Presidential election. Among white evangelical voters who identified as Republican, 53% said they would vote for Trump while 31% favored DeSantis. Less than 1% said they would vote for Joe Biden. In other words, over a year before Republicans would need to decide their presidential candidate, Trump already enjoyed majority support among white evangelicals.

Yet when we split the sample by church attendance, we found only 48% of white evangelical Republicans who attend at least monthly planned on voting for Trump, compared to 61% of those who attend less than once a month. DeSantis’s support stayed at around 31% either way (the gains were mostly for Mike Pence who dropped out in October), but Trump enjoyed less dominance among the most devout. Other polls around this time also suggested evangelical support for Trump could be wavering. Flickers of hope for would-be rivals.

 

But by late Fall of 2023, white evangelicals were once again unifying around Trump. When Pew Research Center asked white evangelical Republican voters about their primary preferences, 55% said they would vote for Trump. And importantly, this percentage was identical among those who attend church at least monthly and the less frequent attendees. DeSantis did enjoy greater support among the monthly churchgoers (21% compared to 13%), but the 17% lead Trump enjoyed among the more devout in Spring 2023 had doubled to 34% 9 months later.

What changed? Did Trump start courting white evangelicals again like in 2016? Not really. In fact, Trump hasn’t made many public appearances at all compared to other GOP primary candidates, and very few on the Christian right circuit. Did white evangelical thought leaders start campaigning for Trump in earnest over the past year? Again, not really. Some fringe far-right pastors never left him. But a number of prominent evangelical leaders, authors, and pastors, some of whom previously endorsed Trump, publicly endorsed DeSantis.

Rather than focusing on anything Trump or evangelical leaders have done to solidify Trump’s evangelical support, there are two more likely explanations.

The first is that white evangelicals, and especially the most devout ones, are ride-or-die partisans. The more often white evangelical voters attend church, the more likely they are to identify as Republican. For example, when I analyze data from Pew Research Center’s American Trends Panel Survey, Wave 114, I find that less than 48% of white evangelical voters who “Never” attend church are Republicans, while nearly 73% of those who attend more than once a week identify that way.

Trump is the Republican party now. And thus, while a minority of devout white evangelicals may have entertained other political options a year before the primary would be decided, as Trump’s victory became more inevitable, any reluctant supporters among the most committed fell into line. Even when evangelical theologian Wayne Grudem called for Trump to drop out of the race, he wasn’t standing against Trump (whom he praised). Rather, he merely thought Trump would lose against Biden. The issue was party victory, not principle.

The second reason evangelicals have rallied to Trump again is because they are not only partisans but culture warriors who still feel under attack. And despite DeSantis’s best efforts to sell himself as an anti-woke, no apologies, warrior for religious conservatives, the majority of evangelicals either never bought it or simply had more confidence in Trump as their warrior king. As journalist Tim Alberta has described the white evangelical mindset, “The barbarians are at the gates, and we need a barbarian to keep them at bay.” Trump is nothing if not a convincing barbarian.

 

We shouldn’t oversell the rivalry that wasn’t. Trump was always the evangelical favorite even among the most devout. He has been the favorite among white evangelicals, regardless of their church attendance, since well before the primaries were decided in January 2016. Even then, Pew data showed white evangelicals across the board were more enthusiastic about his potential as a President.

Trump has white evangelicals in his pocket. Whatever cognitive dissonance some devout Christians may feel for supporting a twice-impeached serial philandering liar who tried to stage a coup and threatens violence against political opponents is easily dismissed with the conviction that no Republican nominee, no matter how problematic, could be worse than losing to a Democrat.

Understand the American religion of fanatical partisanship and culture-warring and you understand why white evangelicals will always fall in line. As Nikki Haley is learning all over again.

 

ATTACHMENT TWENTY THREE – FROM SALON

THE TIME FOR DENIAL IS OVER: REPUBLICANS ARE REALLY NOMINATING DONALD TRUMP

Huge numbers of voters still don't believe Trump will be the nominee — will New Hampshire be the wake-up call?

By AMANDA MARCOTTE  Senior Writer  PUBLISHED JANUARY 24, 2024 6:00AM (EST)

 

Tuesday night's primary results from New Hampshire are going to be a shock to a lot of people's systems. For weeks, the Beltway press heavily hyped the notion that former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley had a real chance of winning the first Republican primary of 2024. Instead, as in Iowa last week, Donald Trump won so handily that the Associated Press called the race a mere 10 minutes after polls closed.

For devoted political watchers — the kind of people who have opinions about FiveThirtyEight vs. Real Clear Politics — Trump's curb-stomping win did not come as a surprise. We read the polls and saw that Trump was consistently up over Haley by about 15-20 points in New Hampshire's primary. This was only "close" relative to where the two candidates stand in the rest of the states. National polls show Trump is up an average of 55 points over Haley in the GOP primary race, a gap she almost certainly can't make up even if she had managed to eke out a miracle win in New Hampshire. 

Focus group attendees "have not grokked yet" that this is going to be a Trump-v.-Biden rematch. 

Ordinary people who don't obsess over poll minutia can be forgiven, however, for thinking Haley had a real shot. Nearly every time I flipped on MSNBC in the days before the New Hampshire primary, I was subjected to segments about how the state often delivers a "surprise" win, with special focus on how Bill Clinton's underdog performance in 1992 led eventually to the Democratic nomination. The Washington Post leaned into this style of hopium, reaching all the way back to Dwight Eisenhower's 1952 New Hampshire GOP win to stoke the idea that Trump might be toast. Mainstream media outlets frequently paired the words "Haley" and "upset" in headlines in the Tuesday run-up. The hype machine went into overdrive after Dixville Notch, a tiny town whose schtick is closing the polls shortly after midnight, saw all 6 people who showed up voting for Haley. 

Coverage like this goes a long way towards explaining why large numbers of voters simply do not believe Trump will be the candidate bellowing from the Milwaukee stage at the Republican National Convention this July. Earlier this month, an Economist/YouGov poll showed that a plurality of Americans — 43% — did not expect Trump to be the nominee this year. The number goes up when excluding Republicans, who obviously know they're voting for Trump. Over half of Democrats and 47% of independents answered "not sure" or named someone else when asked who would win the Republican nomination. 

This comports with reporting from CNN that Biden's internal campaign polling shows that a strong majority of undecided voters simply don't grasp yet that the GOP is lined up behind Trump. According to the Biden campaign officials, nearly three-quarters of undecided voters "simply do not seem to believe – at least not yet – that Donald Trump is likely to be the Republican presidential nominee." Polling expert Sarah Longwell has long been sounding this alarm as well, noting that focus group attendees "have not grokked yet" that this is going to be a Trump-v.-Biden rematch. 

Not all these people are the "low information voters" we hear so much about. A lot of these folks take in a fair amount of the news and could do fairly well on a "current events" quiz. I've spoken to such folks online and off. They are generally well-informed about the political landscape and the stakes of an election where one candidate, Trump, attempted to overthrow democracy last time he lost. But they still struggle to believe Trump will be the nominee. 

Haley herself is not making it easy for folks to grasp reality.

"This race is far from over," she declared, mere minutes after losing the primary most analysts saw as her final hope for any viability as a candidate. "And the next one is my sweet state of South Carolina," she hollered. But the polls are even worse for her there: Real Clear Politics has Trump up over Haley by 30 on average. FiveThirtyEight's aggregate puts Trump 37 points over Haley in her home state. 

 

The GOP primary is in a parallel universe. Republicans are about to get a reality shock

 

No doubt, part of the reason voters are confused is the misleading news coverage. Part of it, however, is an understandable inability to accept, on a deep emotional level, that Republican voters can be this stupid and/or evil. They're not wrong, either, to feel like it doesn't make sense. Trump is under 91 felony indictments. He stole classified documents from the government. He sicced a mob on the Capitol on January 6 in an effort to steal the election from President Joe Biden. He has been found liable by a jury for what the judge keeps reminding us meets the federal definition of rape. He's insanely racist and is getting louder about it all the time. He's quite likely on the verge of losing his vastly overstated wealth due to his decades of fraud. 

In the past, any single one of those liabilities would have sunk a politician immediately and permanently. Of course, it's hard to believe Republicans would nominate this jackass again. Politically aware readers are pulling their hair out and screaming, "After all this time, who do you think Republican voters are?!"

But think about it from this point of view: Most of us know some Republican voters. As a rule, most of them don't act like an emotionally incontinent psychopath like their Dear Leader.

Most go to work every day and rarely get taped bragging about how they like to "grab 'em by the pussy." They pay their bills by working, instead of defrauding people. They don't call on their social media followers to murder their colleagues and then run around afterward, telling everyone the victim had it coming. They don't sexually assault women in department stores and then, when sued over it, act victimized because men have been able to get away with rape for "the last million years." Most Republican voters act normal enough in person. It's hard to imagine their souls are so dark that they think this man — a fascist who sends violent goons after people and is currently harassing a woman he once sexually assaulted — is their number one pick for president. It's hard to believe it, but true: They may not act that way in person, but on some level, they really wish they could. 

When truth is stranger than fiction, it is often easier to disbelieve, at least until the facts make it impossible to ignore reality. For those of us who have Republican voters in our lives who are also loved ones, this is especially difficult. Certainly, a major stress point for me personally is knowing that so many of my relatives back a man who committed a sexual assault against E. Jean Carroll, an assault that is almost identical to the one they know full well I endured. Indeed, thinking about it sometimes creates a sense of disassociation that is reminiscent of how you feel during an assault or an accident. The word "incomprehensible" was coined for these moments, when you know it must be real, but it makes so little sense your brain is sending "doubt" signals anyway.  

Unfortunately, this is indeed happening: Trump is the Republican nominee. The good news is that most people do start to accept even surreal realities, once the facts on the ground become unavoidable. Most 2024 election polls were conducted with nearly half of respondents thinking it was silly to ask about Trump as a candidate. Now that they know it's an accurate portrayal of the year to come, most will get back on board the Stop Trump train. A Tuesday report from Politico suggests this shift may already be happening. Polls show that Trump will struggle "to win back the people he’s alienated, including those once willing to vote Republican." Meanwhile, while Biden's approval ratings are shaky, he seems to be solidifying votes from those leaning his way faster than Trump is doing with maybe-Republican voters. 

Will it be enough to keep Trump from eking out a narrow victory in a few swing states, enough to slide back into the White House? That remains to be seen. But the first obstacle for Biden to overcome was getting people to believe this is real. With Trump securing the win in New Hampshire, hopefully voters will start waking up. 

 

·         Nikki Haley says she doesn't want to be anybody's vice president

·         Nikki Haley pandered to MAGA's bigotries for years — now Trump's turned that firehose of hate on her

·         “I absolutely hate Trump": A "whole swath" of GOP voters say they're not falling for MAGA again

 



ATTACHMENT TWENTY FOUR – FROM WASHPOST

TRUMP AIMS FOR DECISIVE BLOW IN N.H. AS GOP OPPOSITION PINS HOPES ON HALEY

Polls consistently show a stable race, with Donald Trump far ahead while Nikki Haley attempts an uphill climb of running up the score with independents

By Isaac Arnsdorf and Sabrina Rodriguez  January 23, 2024 at 5:00 a.m. EST

 

LACONIA, N.H. — Former president Donald Trump entered Tuesday’s first-in-the-nation primary here on the cusp of bringing the race for the Republican nomination to a startlingly early conclusion and steamrolling the dwindling resistance within the party to a rematch against President Biden.

New Hampshirites are heading to the polls as the anti-Trump constituency within the Republican Party confronts what could amount to a last stand. Another decisive win for Trump could sew up the nomination and force the sole remaining alternative, Nikki Haley, into a difficult reckoning over the future of her campaign. But a surprise upset in the state could upend the one-on-one race.

Trump reached for that impression of unity and finality by concluding his campaign here Monday alongside his former rivals turned allies. Also-rans Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.), North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum and entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy joined him onstage in a demonstration of how the field has rapidly consolidated behind him. The barbs they traded were instantly buried — Ramaswamy, whom Trump called “not MAGA,” he now called a “dynamo”; Scott, who had questioned Trump’s electability, now led a chant of “four more years” — as Trump focused his fire on Haley, his former U.N. ambassador.

“Twelve years of Trump!” a man in the crowd shouted.

“You’re right,” Trump laughed. “Don’t say that too loud. ... You know they love to call me a fascist.”

But even as he sought to hit some unifying notes, some of the most polarizing parts of his platform were evident. As Trump concluded, cued by theme music associated with the QAnon extremism movement, someone in the crowd shouted, “Free the J6ers!” referring to people charged in the Jan. 6, 2021, riot at the U.S. Capitol. Trump pointed and said, “We will.” He went on to refer to the defendants as “hostages,” as he has been doing in speeches since December.

An hour’s drive south, in Salem, Haley made her closing pitch to a packed hotel ballroom, arguing that she is the only Republican who can decisively defeat Biden in November and deliver a strong mandate and down-ballot GOP victories.

“Republicans have lost the last seven out of eight popular votes for president, and that is nothing to be proud of,” she said. “We should want to win the majority of Americans — but the only way we’re going to do that is if we elect a new generational conservative leader.”

Someone in the audience yelled: “That’s Nikki!” The crowd erupted in applause.

Her chief surrogate here, Gov. Chris Sununu (R), also emphasized weariness with losses he blamed on Trump, and he attacked both Trump, 77, and Biden, 81, for their ages. Voters here frequently mention Haley’s age as one of their reasons for supporting her — and Haley has made that a point in her campaign, calling for term limits and mental competency tests.

“They want that change instead of settling for these two octogenarians or whatever,” Sununu said. “Now we’re just a stone’s throw away from doing what nobody thought was possible — and that’s delivering Donald Trump a loss in the first primary of the country.”

Haley also recognized Don Bolduc, the 2022 Republican Senate nominee and election denier who previously endorsed her and lost to incumbent Sen. Maggie Hassan (D), to show support across the ideological spectrum.

“He’s as conservative as they get. And then you have Chris Sununu, who’s a moderate,” she said. “We’ve got everybody.”

But after bullishly projecting an outright victory in recent weeks, Haley and Sununu shifted to lowering expectations after she finished third in last week’s Iowa caucuses and the second-place finisher, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, dropped out and endorsed Trump.

“This is a marathon, it’s not a sprint,” Haley said in interview with Fox News’ Martha MacCallum in Franklin, N.H., on Monday. “We don’t believe in coronations in this country. We believe in democracy. I’m in this for the long haul.”

The Biden campaign is also looking ahead to a rematch. It has been hosting events marking the anniversary of the Supreme Court’s 1973 decision in Roe v. Wade, which established a constitutional right to abortion until it was overturned in 2022. Speaking in Northern Virginia on Tuesday, Biden and Vice President Harris are expected to emphasize Trump’s role in appointing the justices who voted to overturn Roe and the effect on access to emergency care, medication abortion and contraception.

 “He intended for them to take away your freedoms,” Harris said Monday in Big Bend, Wisc. “And it is a decision he brags about.”

 

Biden is not on the ballot in Tuesday’s Democratic primary because the Democratic National Committee made South Carolina the party’s first official primary, but a technically unaffiliated write-in campaign is aiming to overcome a handful of long-shot challengers.

Trump’s team is hoping for a show of force in Tuesday’s results to shut down the primary early and start stockpiling money for a long slog against Biden. The campaign brought up high-ranking Republicans from Haley’s home state of South Carolina to discourage her from staying in the race until the primary there Feb. 24. A Trump adviser who spoke on the condition of anonymity because they weren’t authorized to speak to the media said the campaign would “make it miserable” for Haley as long as she stays in the race.

“If you want the race to be over tomorrow, let me hear you scream!” Scott said as he worked the crowd.

A Trump adviser reached out to DeSantis to offer an open invitation to campaign with the former president, but there is nothing planned yet.

New Hampshire is known for surprises, but polls have shown a stable race. A Washington Post-Monmouth University poll completed before DeSantis’s withdrawal found 52 percent support for Trump and 34 percent for Haley. The survey found that Haley led with independent voters, who are allowed to vote in this state’s Republican primary, but that those voters said they were less motivated to participate.

Turning out such voters has largely fallen to Americans For Prosperity Action, the political arm of the network of conservative groups backed by billionaire Charles Koch. With the official Haley campaign lacking a state director here until October, AFP Action stepped in as her de facto field operation since endorsing her on Nov. 28.

The group has since fielded 100 to 150 canvassers and made 630,000 contacts at doors and over the phone, working to grow the electorate by turning out a pool of some 20,000 people who have voted in general elections but not primaries. Senior adviser Greg Moore said marginal voters tend to be less highly engaged and decide late. The group’s projected turnout, a record 330,000 to 340,000, would be more than double the last nonpresidential primary, in 2022, and more than three times the participation in the Iowa caucuses, in a state with about half the total population.

New Hampshire Secretary of State David M. Scanlan has predicted a record Republican primary turnout of 322,000.

In Manchester on Monday, Jo-An Provencher answered an AFP door-knocker after putting her grandson to sleep, and she smiled at the sight of Haley literature. Provencher said she was supporting Haley despite concerns about her position on raising the Social Security retirement age and despite some continued appreciation for Trump.

“I do like Trump,” she said. “But my main concern, they attacked him too much, and the chaos would remain.

“Do I always like him as a person? No,” she added with a shake of her head. “I like what he stood for. He’s been hammered. I hope they don’t hammer her too.”

Ahead of Tuesday’s results, Trump and his allies began baselessly undermining the legitimacy of the state’s long-standing and completely legal practice of allowing unaffiliated voters in party primaries. “You have a crazy election,” Trump said Monday.

“Ron DeSantis, at least, had the smarts to say, I’m packing up and going back to Florida,” Kari Lake, a Republican candidate for Senate in Arizona who is an active Trump surrogate, said in an interview Monday. Of Haley, Lake said, “She’s going to get a rude awakening part 2 tomorrow.”

Ahead of Trump’s speech here, a handful of Haley and DeSantis yard signs dotted a snowbank as wheeled carts selling Trump gear rolled along a line of supporters stretching down the block of a lakefront hotel.

“You’re going to end the Republican primary in 2024,” Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) said to warm up the crowd Monday. “This is a referendum on the Republican Party, and I am counting on you to bring it.

The speech was repeatedly interrupted by fossil fuel protesters, leading to escalating taunts from Trump and the crowd, and at least one injury of unclear severity to a bystander caught in the shuffle. Multiple attendees collapsed from dehydration while leaving the cramped and stuffy room.

Former president Donald Trump and former U.N. ambassador Nikki Haley are the two major Republican candidates left standing as voters in New Hampshire head to the polls on Tuesday.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis said former president Donald Trump’s commanding victory in Iowa should be “a huge warning sign” for Republicans, namely about low turnout among conservatives who are expressing their discontent with the former president by staying away from the polls.

DeSantis, who dropped out of the Republican nominating contest Sunday and endorsed Trump after his distant second-place finish in Iowa, appeared on the “Steve Deace Show” on Tuesday.

 

 

ATTACHMENT TWENTY FIVE – FROM DAILY MAIL UK 

By EMILY GOODIN, SENIOR U.S. POLITICAL REPORTER IN MANCHESTER, N.H.

PUBLISHED: 08:28 EST, 22 January 2024 | UPDATED: 23:26 EST, 22 January 2024

 

Donald Trump said it's 'highly unlikely' that he would have Ron DeSantis in his administration and that he doesn't 'see a path' for Nikki Haley to the nomination as New Hampshire voters prepare to go to the polls on Tuesday.

Top of Form

Bottom of Form

The former president sat down with Fox News' Lawrence Jones to discuss the state of the Republican presidential race. The interviewed aired on Monday, the day Trump will be back in a New York court for E. Jean Carroll's defamation suit against him. The former president will back in New Hampshire Monday night for a rally. 

He said he appreciated Ron DeSantis' endorsement after the former governor dropped out of the contest on Sunday but said he didn't see him serving as his running mate or in his administration. 

'Well, it's probably unlikely but you know, I have to be honest, everything is a possibility, but I think it's highly unlikely. I have a lot of great people. And I have great people that have been with me right from the beginning,' he said.

He also blasted Haley, who remains in the race against him. 

'I don't see a path for her at all,' he said of her presidential campaign.

And he said he was 'very upset' with her for running against him after he made her his ambassador to the U.N. 

'I would say with Nikki I haven't done anything. I'm very upset with her,' he said. 'She worked for me like two and a half years. She was okay. Not great. She was okay. She said to everybody, in fact, when she left, I would never run against the president.'

The former president is leading in the polls of the first-in-the-nation presidential contest by double digits.

A Washington Post/Monmouth University poll found that 52 percent of primary voters are supporting Trump, while 34 percent are backing Haley.

DeSantis dropped out of the race on Sunday night, threw his support to Trump and blasted Haley.

In his video announcement, DeSantis noted: 'It's clear to me that a majority of Republican primary voters want to give Donald Trump another chance. They watched his presidency get stymied by relentless resistance and they see Democrats using lawfare to this day to attack him.'

'Trump is superior to the current incumbent, Joe Biden. That is clear. I signed a pledge to support the Republican nominee and I will honor that pledge.'

DeSantis' endorsement of Trump came after he has repeatedly criticized the former president, questioning his age and arguing he'll inspire Democrats to come out in droves to support Biden.

Trump, for his part, said on Sunday he would retire the nickname 'Ron DeSanctimonious' now that the Florida governor endorsed him. 

Haley simply said of the race: 'I want to say to Ron, he ran a great race, he's been a good governor and we wish him well. Having said that, it's now one fella and one lady left.' 

·          

·         Take a bow, liberal America, President Trump 2.0 is on YOU - for your crime and wokery... broken borders and trans madness... Biden corruption cover-up and Dona...

·         Hitler's last 24 hours: I want to be a beautiful corpse, said Eva Braun amid a frenzy of sex and drinking

 

ATTACHMENT TWENTY SIX – FROM WASHPOST

THE TRUMP VP PICKS THAT MAKE THE MOST SENSE 

By Aaron Blake  Staff writer January 25, 2024 at 12:55 p.m. EST

 

Most Republicans and Democrats seem to agree that Donald Trump will be the GOP presidential nominee again in 2024, after his wins in both the Iowa caucuses last week and the New Hampshire primary on Tuesday.

Barring a development that somehow upends the race, that would mean the next — and final — big question about the 2024 presidential ballot is Trump’s running mate.

So who might it be? Below is my rundown for who makes the most political sense, and why.

This list takes into account who is thought to be under consideration, who would fit with Trump’s personal style and politics, and who might provide the ticket something of value. Given Trump’s experience with his vice president, Mike Pence, surrounding the attack on the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, the list is weighted toward candidates who demonstrate loyalty to Trump — on his legal issues, on trying to overturn the 2020 election — a requirement that is undoubtedly a major part of his calculus. (For instance, one question that is likely to linger over a Trump VP pick is whether they would pardon him if he’s convicted of a crime and removed from office.)

1  Elise Stefanik

Elise Stefanik has shown a willingness to go to great lengths to defend and support Trump. (Adam Glanzman for The Washington Post)

Trump seems to like Republicans he has been able to convert into loyalists, and few embody such a wholesale conversion as Stefanik. Trump and his allies have had very good things to say about the New York congresswoman. She’s also proved a remarkable willingness to say pretty much anything to defend and support Trump, including most recently referring to Jan. 6 “hostages” and by claiming Trump hadn’t actually confused Nikki Haley with former House speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.). If Pence showed us anything, it’s that obeisance might be Job 1.

Stefanik would also give him someone familiar with the power corridors in Washington, given she has served in House GOP leadership and has worked in the White House and on presidential campaigns.

 

2  Tim Scott

Tim Scott might be the most broadly agreeable contender. (Jonathan Newton/The Washington Post)

The senator from South Carolina probably secured significant goodwill with Trump last week by delivering a well-timed endorsement. Just before the New Hampshire primary he backed Trump over Haley, despite Haley’s having initially appointed him to the Senate. (Trump spotlighted this at his victory party Tuesday, telling Scott he “must really hate” Haley. Scott responded, “I just love you.”)

The senator didn’t exactly light the world on fire with his own presidential campaign, and he doesn’t have a long history of professed devotion to Trump. But he’s perhaps the most broadly agreeable candidate on this list, and he’d provide the ticket some diversity.

 

3  Sarah Huckabee Sanders

Sarah Huckabee Sanders knows how to spin for Trump. (Jabin Botsford/The Washington Post)

Sanders has gone to great lengths to make culture wars a focal point since being elected Arkansas governor in 2022. She’s also got plenty of experience spinning for Trump, having done so as his White House press secretary for two years. She brings the most direct personal tie of anyone on this list.

One potential drawback is the “Podiumgate” controversy (which in actuality involves a lectern). Arkansas lawmakers in October launched an audit into questions about the expensive purchase and whether documents were altered to cover something up. We haven’t gotten a final word on that. Also, Sanders has relatively little experience running tough races in her own right, facing only token opposition in both her 2022 primary and the general election.

 

4  Ron DeSantis

Ron DeSantis gave a perfunctory endorsement of Trump, but he is popular with the Republican base. (Matt McClain/The Washington Post)

If he’s angling for it, it’s not terribly obvious right now; the Florida governor gave Trump only a perfunctory endorsement when he dropped out Sunday and has followed it up by saying things Trump probably doesn’t like. The constant slide of his presidential campaign also undermined his claim to being an electoral winner. And something would have to be done about the fact that both Trump and DeSantis live in Florida. (They would forfeit the state’s electoral votes unless one of them established residency elsewhere.)

But DeSantis did win Florida big in 2022. He is, despite his lack of traction this campaign, quite popular among Republican-base voters — more so than Nikki Haley. And he’s someone who could bring both political chops and a passion for provocation.

 

5  Nikki Haley

Nikki Haley's electoral track record could be an asset to Trump. (Melina Mara/The Washington Post)

It seems like a distant possibility right now, what with Haley staying in the race and making Trump angry in the process. She’s saying things that would be hard to explain later, including about Trump’s mental sharpness and his electability. Trump said recently that he “probably” wouldn’t pick her, because she’s not “presidential timber.” And he’s taken to not-subtly “otherizing” her by citing her Indian heritage.

She’s also someone whom noisy MAGA influencers, Trump allies and even Trump’s own son have made clear they want nowhere near the ticket. Trump would probably worry about her being loyal enough; even as United Nations ambassador, she showed something of a willingness to buck his White House (see: “With all due respect, I don’t get confused”).

But these things always appear distant possibilities in real time. Wounds heal. And Haley would present perhaps the best running mate if the goal is to reach out to segments of the party that aren’t sold on Trump. She was also a popular U.N. ambassador, including among Democrats. And her electoral track record — both as the last candidate standing against Trump and someone who shocked the political world by defeating more established male opponents in her 2010 gubernatorial primary — is certainly an asset. If the idea is to just win, she might make the most sense.

 

6  Kristi Noem

Kristi Noem is allied with Trump but has a relatively low national profile. (Jabin Botsford/The Washington Post)

The South Dakota governor has long (been) featured on lists like this. It’s not clear what she would add that anyone else couldn’t provide — apart from appealing to Midwestern voters — and she has little in the way of a national profile on which to build.

But sometimes a relatively blank slate can be a good thing. And Noem has more of an alliance with Trump than many other governors.

 

7  J.D. Vance

J.D. Vance's brand of nationalistic populism might appeal to Trump. (Jabin Botsford/The Washington Post)

The senator from Ohio might have undergone even more of a pro-Trump conversion than Stefanik. Vance’s punditry in 2016 was very anti-Trump, but he rode MAGA right into the Senate in 2022. Trump once remarked, in public, that “J.D. is kissing my ass he wants my support so much.” His brand of nationalistic populism could also complement Trump’s, and the “Hillbilly Elegy” author might understand Trump’s base better than Trump does.

But Vance’s performance in that 2022 campaign didn’t exactly scream, “Great candidate.” He underperformed every other statewide Ohio Republican by double digits. Also, the freshman senator might not be the ideal pick if the idea, as with Pence, is to have a studied political hand who can serve as a bridge to Congress and various constituencies.

 

8  Kari Lake

Kari Lake's combative style aligns with Trump's. (Jabin Botsford/The Washington Post)

Had she won the 2022 Arizona governor’s race, it’s likely Lake would be near the top of this list. But she didn’t. Lake didn’t underperform as much as other Trump-aligned candidates, but never holding office and losing your only campaign would be a pretty underwhelming résumé to join a national ticket with. She’s also running for Senate right now, which creates its own problems.

That said, Lake might align with Trump’s combative style more than anyone on this list. She relishes fights with her opponents and the media, and the former TV news anchor is a competent public speaker. She’s also an election denier with little compare — apart from Trump, of course — continuing to baselessly claim to this date that her 2022 race was stolen.

 

9  Vivek Ramaswamy

Vivek Ramaswamy was a cheerleader for Donald Trump when he was running against him. (Tom Brenner for the Washington Post)

Save for some brief scuffles between the entrepreneur and Trump’s campaign before the Iowa caucuses, Ramaswamy effectively ran as a surrogate for Trump in the 2024 presidential race. While other candidates declined to criticize Trump, Ramaswamy was actually cheerleading for him. Few campaigns have looked more like an effort to secure a job that isn’t actually the presidency.

Ramaswamy is certainly an effective messenger who might be more at home in the No. 2 role. But there’s a big problem, and it’s that he’s not someone Americans writ large seem to like very much; a Fox News poll last month showed twice as many Americans disliked him as liked him.

 

 

ATTACHMENT TWENTY SEVEN – FROM

THE WASHINGTON POST

Top 10 Democratic 2024 presidential candidates (besides Biden), ranked

National Democrats appear much more content with Biden than the base is. So what happens if that changes?

 

Analysis by Aaron Blake

Staff writer

Updated April 25, 2023 at 4:22 p.m. EDT|Published April 25, 2023 at 3:43 p.m. EDT

At long last, we have a major candidate in the 2024 Democratic presidential primary.

It’s a guy whom only about half of Democrats want to run, half say is too old to serve, and only about 4 in 10 approve of strongly. Just 1 in 5 say they would be enthusiastic about his winning.

This same man appears to be on a glide path to winning the Democratic nomination — for now.

President Biden’s newly announced reelection bid is without comparison in modern American political history. Never have we seen so few members of a president’s party wanting him to seek reelection. At the same time, this is an incumbent president whom nobody wants to be seen undercutting — especially as a perhaps-likely rematch with the man Biden already beat in 2020, Donald Trump, looms.

Democrats, long caricatured as aimless infighters, are suddenly, seemingly the party that falls in line for the purported good of the party’s electoral hopes (in stark contrast with Republicans). It’s evident that a capable alternative to Biden could step forward and have a good shot at nabbing the nomination against a guy most Democrats aren’t clamoring to renominate. But nobody seems to want to be the first to leap. And the name of the game for now seems to be seeing how Biden’s campaign goes and how the 80-year old is able to handle himself amid the age questions, and going from there.

But that setup has also led others to prepare for the what-ifs.

What if Biden struggles and is looking like a general election liability? For now, Democrats appear willing to vote for him, with 88 percent saying they would definitely or probably vote for him in the general election, but just 22 percent of independents say the same. And what if Biden ultimately doesn’t finish the campaign, for whatever reason?

It’s a question that is more real and important than Democrats want to publicly acknowledge. And the stakes of beating Trump are so large that this conversation might not be able to stay (mostly) behind closed doors for too long.

So if Biden does falter, who could step in? We’ve been ranking the top 10 potential Democratic nominees including Biden for a while — the assumption being that a contested primary was possible. Below, we’re adjusting that slightly to look at who would be the most formidable in case the party decides it’s best to turn the page.

There are no easy answers or obvious alternatives here, which appears to be part of the reason Democrats have settled on Biden so far. (A recent poll asked people to name a candidate they favored if Biden didn’t run, and half didn’t even offer one.) But that could change. It’s also possible people were keeping their powder dry and hoping not to alienate Biden’s team by leaning in to a run, but that calculus could change now that he’s in, too.

If it does, here’s who to keep an eye on, ranked from least to most likely.

10. Phil Murphy/J.B. Pritzker

They’re both governors of blue states (Illinois and New Jersey). They’re both in their second terms. They’re both wealthy. And they’ve both made it quite clear that they are interested in running for president at some point. Whether they fit the profile of what Democratic voters are actually looking for is another matter. But if we had to pick which one made more sense, we’d probably go with Pritzker. That’s in part because his personal wealth — estimated at $3.6 billion — might be attractive for and helpful in an abbreviated campaign.

9. Raphael G. Warnock

The Georgia senator hasn’t gotten much buzz, but we have to think that would change in a hurry if Biden falters. Warnock won consecutive Senate campaigns in a prime swing state in 2020 and 2022. A pair of runoffs in those races means he’s run something amounting to four general election campaigns in that time period, and you have to think he would want a break. But next to Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.), perhaps no Democratic senator’s stock is higher right now.

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8. Bernie Sanders

The Vermont senator reiterated Tuesday that he would not challenge Biden in a primary and will seek to rally progressives behind Biden’s candidacy. As for a race without Biden, he is often up there with Vice President Harris and Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg in the polls. He would also start such a race with a base unlike anyone else on this list. But you have to wonder if the answer to a party that might view an 80-year-old as being too old is an 81-year-old who has already run and lost twice.

 

Congressional Black Caucus members Sens. Cory Booker (D-N.J.) and Raphael G. Warnock (D-Ga.), and Rep. Joe Neguse (D-Colo.) speak with the media in February. (Demetrius Freeman/The Washington Post)

7. Amy Klobuchar

The Minnesota senator is among those seen as quietly doing the things one would do to remain a part of the conversation in a post-Biden race. She makes sense as a stand-in for Biden and his more pragmatic brand of politics, but she might have competition for that lane with some governors on this list.

6. Josh Shapiro

Arguably more than anyone on this list, this would be a break-glass-in-case-of-emergency situation. The Pennsylvania governor is just months into his job after winning by double digits against a flawed opponent in a swing state. He makes more sense as a 2028 prospect. But if we’re talking mostly about a situation in which the party is suddenly looking for the best and most electable alternative, plenty will home in on him.

 

Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro (D) listens to a question from the audience during a January event. (Caroline Gutman for The Washington Post)

5. Gavin Newsom

The California governor, despite his protestations, is widely viewed as being among the most likely candidates to run if Biden falters. He’s gone to great lengths to build his national profile in recent months, while pushing his party toward a more in-your-face approach to taking on Republicans. It’s easy to see how that message might play well.

4. Gretchen Whitmer

The 2022 election results seem to have faded as a consideration on the Republican side, with voters increasingly moving toward Trump and his bad electoral record — and away from 19-point-victor-in-a-former-swing-state Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. But Democrats have shown they’re more interested in pragmatism, including by nominating Biden in 2020. And it’s hard to see them doing worse than the well-regarded and liked female governor of a swing state (Michigan) who has won two campaigns there by about 10 points. Whitmer has said she wouldn’t run even in a Biden-less race, but arguably even more so than with Shapiro or Colorado Gov. Jared Polis, it’s not difficult to see a huge recruiting effort emerging. Plenty will believe she is the answer.

 

Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer comes out to speak at a rally in Pontiac, Mich., in 2022. (Nick Hagen for The Washington Post)

3. Jared Polis

The Colorado governor makes sense for many of the same reasons as Shapiro and Whitmer; he won reelection in November by nearly 20 points in a blue former swing state and is well-liked in the party. (For a rundown of how Polis might fit into a presidential campaign, see this from George Will.) But he’s left the door a little more ajar to running one day.

2. Kamala D. Harris

Biden’s announcement seems to erase any doubts that Harris will be his running mate again in 2024. There have been questions about how voters might feel about that, given that her ascension to the top job is a more real prospect with Biden in his 80s, and she’s generally less popular than both Biden and recent vice presidents. Polls suggest she’s the nominal front-runner in a Biden-less race, but without anything approaching a convincing margin.

1. Pete Buttigieg

The transportation secretary is seemingly aiming higher — whether that’s in 2024 or 2028 — after passing on running for an open Senate seat in his adoptive home state of Michigan. While he finished fifth in pledged delegates in 2020, it’s worth recalling that he just about won both of the first two states, Iowa and New Hampshire. He quickly faltered when the contests moved to more diverse electorates in Nevada and South Carolina, and his lack of appeal to minority voters is a major obstacle that must be dealt with. But he’s also the most established and capable national messenger on this list. And perhaps more people would give him a look now that he’s no longer just a 30-something mayor of a medium-size city.

Others worth mentioning: Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo, Sen. Cory Booker (N.J.), former New Orleans mayor Mitch Landrieu, Rep. Ro Khanna (Calif.), North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (N.Y.), Sen. Joe Manchin III (W.Va.), Maryland Gov. Wes Moore, Sen. Mark Kelly (Ariz.), former Housing and Urban Development secretary Julián Castro, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Marianne Williamson

 

ATTACHMENT TWENTY SEVEN “B” –  ALSO FROM

The top 10 Republican presidential candidates for 2024, ranked

Nikki Haley gains in a contest that is still clearly Trump’s to lose

 

Analysis by Aaron Blake

Staff writer

September 3, 2023 at 9:24 a.m. EDT

 

We’re hitting the point at which the 2024 Republican presidential campaign really kicks into gear, with the party holding its first debate late last month and former president Donald Trump’s legal problems — including felony indictments in four cases — beginning to come into focus.

So where do things stand a little more than four months before the first votes in Iowa? Below is our regular look at the 10 candidates most likely to be the next GOP presidential nominee.

The winners and losers from the first Republican debate

As usual, the candidates are ranked in order of likelihood to be nominated, with No. 1 being most likely.

10. Asa Hutchinson

The former Arkansas governor made some news at the Aug. 23 debate, going as far as to suggest that Trump might be disqualified from office under the 14th Amendment (for his alleged role in the Jan. 6, 2021, insurrection). But a lot of good it did him: A post-debate poll from The Washington Post, FiveThirtyEight and Ipsos showed Hutchinson as the only candidate to see no increase in the percentage of debate watchers considering voting for him. Before and after the debate, just 9 percent said they would consider him, the lowest percentage for any candidate onstage. And among those debate watchers, his unfavorable rating rose more (by 24 points) than his favorable rating did (by 17 points). (Previous ranking: 10)

9. Doug Burgum

 

North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, who hurt his leg playing basketball, needed crutches to attend the debate. (Joshua Lott/The Washington Post)

The North Dakota governor saw slightly better returns — going from 5 percent considering him to 12 percent — but not in a way that suggests he’ll be a force. And to top things off, he’s now got to balance his campaign schedule with a serious leg injury that requires rehab. (Previous ranking: 9)

8. Chris Christie

The former New Jersey governor remains the candidate most disliked by GOP primary voters, with around 6 in 10 having an unfavorable opinion. He’s now significantly more popular among Democrats, despite the fact that they don’t particularly like him either. There was plenty of anticipation that he would lay out the case against Trump at the debate, but Trump’s absence seemed to undercut that exercise. Christie tried to make the case against Trump, but it just didn’t land well, and he spent much of the debate jousting with business executive Vivek Ramaswamy instead. Christie’s path to victory remains a mirage, but he places here because he captured the fancy of GOP voters at least at one point — albeit a decade ago. (Previous ranking: 7)

7. Glenn Youngkin

A new poll last week cast doubt on the Virginia governor’s status as the party’s Trump alternative in waiting. The Roanoke College poll showed him at 9 percent in Virginia’s primary if he were to jump in the race, compared with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis’s 13 percent and Trump’s 47 percent. It’s possible to oversell that data point; home states don’t always love the idea of their politicians running for president. He’s not actually running yet. And the same poll suggested that Youngkin could indeed be the kind of broadly agreeable candidate who would do well in a general election: Even 32 percent of Virginia Democrats approved of his job performance. (Previous ranking: 5)

6. Vivek Ramaswamy

Nobody stood out in the debate like Ramaswamy — for the good and for the bad. While the entrepreneur is clearly building a base of support and places third among Republican primary voters nationally, he’s also developing significant baggage thanks to his propensity for trying to make news. (See: the 9/11 and Israel stuff.) This still feels like a case of a guy bidding for something besides victory in 2024, whether that’s another campaign, a Cabinet job or something to be determined. (Previous ranking: 8)

5. Mike Pence

The former vice president avoided a major embarrassment by meeting the donor requirements to make the debate stage. And he was a focal point, by virtue of the discussion of his Jan. 6 actions. He actually got the most speaking time. But he’s in much the position he was in before, without a solid base and with precious few Republicans considering him (23 percent of debate watchers) despite his past status as Trump’s second-in-command. (Previous ranking: 6)

4. Tim Scott

The senator from South Carolina, too, remains largely what he was before: the broadly acceptable candidate who appears to be waiting for a bump that just hasn’t come. While previously showing some momentum in Iowa, recent polls indicate he might be dropping out of the top three there. Perhaps the bump will come, but being behind Pence and Christie and at 3 percent nationally probably isn’t where he needs to be right now — particularly given that DeSantis’s slippage has left many voters up for grabs. (Previous ranking: 3)

3. Nikki Haley

Pence, Haley disagree on federal abortion ban

Former vice president Mike Pence and former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley disagreed about a federal abortion ban during a GOP primary debate on Aug. 23. (Video: Courtesy of Fox News Channel)

In retrospect, the former South Carolina governor was the most pronounced winner of the debate (to the extent there was one onstage). Fully 15 percent of debate watchers said she won it, a share that was the biggest relative to her current standing in the race. More than one-third who said she won hadn’t previously considered voting for her — more than for DeSantis and Ramaswamy. That suggests she expanded her potential base of support the most, and a national Wall Street Journal poll this weekend seemed to confirm that: Haley jumped into third place, at 8 percent. The post-debate polling suggests Haley mostly won over Trump skeptics in the party, but without necessarily alienating Trump loyalists the way Hutchinson, Christie and Pence have. The trick will be continuing that highly difficult balancing act at which so many others have failed. (Previous ranking: 4)

2. Ron DeSantis

The Florida governor continues to suffer the kinds of stories that often get written about a truly struggling campaign effort. The latest involves leaked audio of a seemingly desperate plea for $50 million from the chief strategist for his super PAC. “I’ve already lost once to Trump, and we can’t do it again,” said the strategist, Jeff Roe, who ran the campaign of Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Tex.) in 2016. DeSantis remains in second place in the national polls at about 15 percent, virtually unchanged from a month ago. But it’s a far cry from when he was near neck-and-neck with Trump in February. What DeSantis really needs right now is a bounce-back to make this look like an actual race again. (Previous ranking: 2)

1. Donald Trump

Former president Donald Trump flying from Georgia to North Carolina in June. (Jabin Botsford/The Washington Post)

The former president remains north of 50 percent in the national polling average, which is more or less where he has been since his indictments started landing in late March. The Journal poll pegged him at 59 percent. The big news last week was that he is scheduled to go on trial over his federal election-related charges March 4, the day before Super Tuesday. Trump, of course, cried election interference. But even setting aside the baselessness of that allegation, that date might actually serve his purposes. As we wrote last week, he might well have the race sewn up before we ever get to the meat of that trial. (Previous ranking: 1)

Others worth mentioning: former Texas congressman Will Hurd, former California gubernatorial candidate Larry Elder, Michigan business executive Perry Johnson

 

 

 

ATTACHMENT TWENTY EIGHT – FROM TIME

NIKKI HALEY DID NEW HAMPSHIRE RIGHT. NEW HAMPSHIRE DIDN'T CARE

BY PHILIP ELLIOTT

Washington Correspondent, TIME

Every four years, there’s at least one candidate who summons every ounce of earnestness and goes all-in to plant a flag in a specific state. You can’t help but admire their gusto and bravada, essentially telling the world that this is their sole focus. And, like clockwork, many of those committed Quixotic campaigns simply cannot get it together just quite right. Pluck alone is often insufficient.

The latest case study: former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley and her incredible effort in New Hampshire. For months, she did the quiet and unglamorous work of attending sparsely attended town halls far from the population centers in the state’s Southern Tier. She met with local activists and student groups alike. She took the questions from voters seriously, even when she flubbed them. Put plainly, she respected what veterans of that state admiringly call The New Hampshire Way.

Slingshotting into the state after a disappointing third-place finish in Iowa just a week ago, the lone Republican woman to run for the White House remained on a mission to work every room, literally becoming the last person to leave some of them so she could greet everyone who wanted to meet her. New Hampshire’s popular but soon-to-be-departing Gov. Chris Sununu was often at her side. And if ever there were a state that historically likes to gum up the results coming out of Iowa and give a hustling panderer a chance, New Hampshire is it.

Yet Haley just couldn’t get the upper hand in a state where Donald Trump prevailed in a jumbled primary eight years ago and never really shirked its Trumpist tendencies. The state’s motto—Live Free Or Die—is a battle cry as much as it is a slogan. And, through icy winds and hip-high snowbanks, the New Hampshire voters shouted it loudly Tuesday night, giving Trump new bragging rights: he is the first presidential candidate to prevail in competitive Republican contests in both Iowa and New Hampshire during the modern era.

“You’ve all heard the chatter among the political class. They’re falling all over themselves saying this race is over,” Haley told supporters in Concord, N.H. “Well, I have news for all of them: New Hampshire is the first in the nation. It’s not the last in the nation. This race is far from over. There are dozens of states left to go.”

Haley seemed defiant in defeat, using her turn at her Election Night headquarters into a renewed call for Republicans to rethink their affinity for the ex-President, and making clear she would continue to push the age issue at every turn. "The first party to retire its 80-year-old candidate is going to be the party that wins this election,” Haley said, introducing a new ding against both Trump and Biden.

It’s clear Haley is spoiling for more contests, reupping her challenge for Trump to actually participate in debates and continuing to critique his chaos-laden orbit. Yet being feisty on its own isn’t enough in a head-to-head contest against a blowhard who has no problem smashing through niceties let alone norms.

Haley’s best bet is hoping that more Republicans are starting to rethink how much of an appetite they have for another year—or four should he win the White House—of Trump as their avatar. Four criminal trials will continue to move forward between now and Election Day. His business and civil woes are going nowhere, either. And Trump has proven over and over and over again that he is an unpredictable force that, while amusing to some to watch, creates a political petri dish that turns toxic for those sharing his laboratory. Haley isn’t wrong when she says the Republican Party lost the House, the Senate, and the White House with Trump at the helm of the party.

Even before polls closed in New Hampshire, Republican insiders were already debating themselves about Haley’s next steps. Technically, the next state to dole out delegates is Nevada; Trump alone is on the ballot for the caucuses there that will award delegates, while Haley is on the ballot for the largely symbolic primary that has no prizes to claim beyond news coverage.

Experienced South Carolina hands—even those who consider themselves Haley fans—are plenty dubious that a welcoming environment awaits Haley when the race moves to her home turf next month. Haley’s defenders argue that, even if they cannot win South Carolina, where Haley has never lost at the ballot, they can hold Trump to a ceiling and still summon a coalition based on her term as Governor. Yet most of the state’s biggest donors and activists had previously committed to Sen. Tim Scott, a figure appointed to the Senate by Haley, and his machine is now available to the man he endorsed after ending his own White House run: Trump.

Nor is it clear that Haley’s open challenge of Trump, the GOP’s most popular figure by a long shot, won’t prove entirely disqualifying in South Carolina. Whereas New Hampshire allows non-affiliated voters—and a record 47% of them Tuesday met this definition—South Carolina is a closed primary. Only declared Republicans can pick a ballot in South Carolina, and Trump carried that state by 12 points over Biden four years ago. Trump isn’t going to make Haley’s return a stroll down King Street by any measure.

Looking down the calendar, though, there are reasons for Haley to stick around. Her campaign and associated super PAC have been careful to squirrel away cash to keep her running through at least March 5’s Super Tuesday, when 11 of the 16 states have open or quasi-open primaries where independents can weigh in. And the states on the calendar before then look a whole lot more like New Hampshire than Iowa. Not just South Carolina, but Michigan and D.C. also have their primaries, and Haley has shown signs of strength in college-educated and moderate circles. All the while, she has a West Coast swing teed-up to meet with donors and collect checks that could fuel her coming out of Super Tuesday if she gets lucky.

Still, despite a stiffened spine that says she is taking her defeat standing up and eyes already looking downstream, she remains the clear underdog. While she will pick up her  of New Hampshire’s 22 delegates, this contest soon turns to winner-take-all or -most events where second prize does not matter. Haley’s in the mix for now, but she made a big play to upend the pecking order in New Hampshire and wound up shown to her seat.

Perhaps anticipating pressure for her to reconsider her next moves before polls closed, Haley told reporters in Hampton that she was going nowhere, a pitch that might serve her well with well-heeled donors desperate for a choice other than Trump or Biden. “I got here because I outworked and outsmarted all the rest of those fellas,” she said.

Haley will have the resources to keep in Trump’s face, at least for now. The next stage of her fight starts Wednesday evening with a rally in North Charleston, S.C. But enthusiasm and hope are no substitutions.

 

 

ATTACHMENT TWENTY NINE – FROM AXIOS

NEW HAMPSHIRE PRIMARY EXPOSES TRUMP'S SHRINKING TENT

By Zachary Basu

Former President Trump's 11-point victory in New Hampshire has been upstaged not just by Nikki Haley's refusal to drop out, but by a set of flashing red alarms about his weaknesses with independents and moderate voters.

Why it matters: Trump, like any candidate, will need a broad coalition to win in November — one that casts a far wider net than the core MAGA base responsible for his dominant victories in Iowa and New Hampshire.

•        As the primary gives way to the longest general election campaign in modern history, there's no indication that Trump will moderate or change to the degree necessary to bring back swing voters he lost in 2020.

•        Even if he does, will it be enough to sway the skeptics alienated by his legal issues and years of public bombast? New Hampshire suggests the reality of Trump's challenges will soon become impossible to ignore.

As MSNBC's Steve Kornacki pointed out, New Hampshire's GOP primary has never seen a wider gap between the preferences of independents and Republican voters than last night's results:

•        Trump won Republican voters 74% to 25%, while Haley won independents 58% to 39%, according to CNN's exit polls.

•        83% of Haley voters — and 42% of voters overall — said they would not consider Trump to be fit for office if he were convicted of a crime.

•        Most importantly, Fox News' voter analysis found that 35% of New Hampshire's voters would be so dissatisfied with a Trump nomination that they would not vote for him in November.

The other side: New Hampshire's unique primary system allowed Democrats to vote in the GOP primary if they switched their party registration by October, suggesting some of these voters were always a lost cause for Trump.

•        And to be sure, President Biden faces his own general election challenges — he's bleeding support from minorities and young voters, and his age remains a top concern for many voters.

•        That's why the Biden campaign is painting November's election as a binary choice between the president and Trump more than a referendum.

Between the lines: The warning signs for Trump run deeper than just the data — just look at the rhetoric Tuesday from his allies:

•        Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.), who appeared on stage with Trump for his victory speech, said the GOP is "completely eradicating" any Republican who doesn't adapt to Trump's policies.

•        Asked how he'll get skeptical Haley supporters to vote for him in November, Trump told reporters: "They're going to all vote for me again. ... And I'm not sure we need too many."

The bottom line: The suggestion that New Hampshire was Never Trumpers' "last stand" misses the point: These voters may have lost the GOP primary, but there are signs they could have the last laugh in November.

 

 

ATTACHMENT THIRTY – FROM THE NEW YORK POST

DONALD TRUMP NOTCHES 11-POINT WIN OVER NIKKI HALEY IN NEW HAMPSHIRE — BUT IT’S NOT ENOUGH TO KNOCK HER OUT

By  Diana Glebova  Published Jan. 23, 2024   Updated Jan. 23, 2024, 11:01 p.m. ET

 

Former President Donald Trump took a giant step closer to his third consecutive Republican presidential nomination in Tuesday’s New Hampshire primary, holding off former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley to complete a sweep of the first two GOP contests.

Meanwhile, President Biden secured victory in New Hampshire’s Democratic primary, despite not being listed on the ballot and leaving supporters to write his name in.

With 91% of the expected Republican vote in, Trump led Haley with 54.8% support to her 43.2% — a narrower margin than most polls suggested he would win by entering primary day and close enough for Haley to tell cheering supporters in Concord she would continue the race at least through the primary in her home state Feb. 24.

A few moments later, the 77-year-old 45th president took the stage in Nashua to deliver a taunting triumphal address directed at his last major rival in the GOP field.

“Who the hell was the imposter that went up on the stage that went before and claimed victory?” Trump asked as his supporters chanted “Bird-brain!” in reference to the former president’s derogatory nickname for his one-time ambassador to the United Nations. “She did very poorly, actually.”

The former president, flanked by onetime 2024 rivals Vivek Ramaswamy and Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC) and allies like far-right Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) also sneered at New Hampshire GOP Gov. Chris Sununu for backing Haley, telling the crowd “he’s gotta be on something” before demanding once again that the former South Carolina governor leave the race.

“Ron [DeSantis] beat her also,” Trump said, referencing the Florida governor’s showing in last week’s Iowa caucus. “Remember, Ron came in second, and he left.”

The former president was boosted coming into the Granite State by a series of endorsements from elected officials — including DeSantis after he dropped out of the race Sunday.

As in Iowa, the Trump camp intended to leave nothing to chance, with the man himself telling supporters to turn out in large numbers because “margins are important” and back-to-back blowouts would send a message of “unity” in the GOP.

Trump also flooded New Hampshire with prominent surrogates — including No. 4 House Republican Elise Stefanik (R-NY) in addition to Scott, Greene and Ramaswamy — while his campaign made hundreds of thousands of phone calls in a bid to boost voter turnout.

For Haley, New Hampshire was seen by many as her best opportunity to defeat the GOP frontrunner, with some polls showing her within four percentage points of the former president.

The ex-UN envoy leaned heavily on the state’s large population of independent voters and veterans, focusing on her vision for the economy, foreign policy and her husband’s military experience.

On primary morning, Haley’s campaign vowed to fight on at least through Super Tuesday on March 5, when 16 states and territories hold their nominating votes.

“After Super Tuesday, we will have a very good picture of where this race stands … Until then, everyone should take a deep breath,” campaign manager Betsy Ankney wrote in a memo.

Trump took a giant step closer to his third straight Republican presidential nomination on Tuesday.AP

Haley’s path forward will be an uphill climb.

She is not registered for the Feb. 8 Nevada caucus and is instead entered in the Feb. 6 non-binding primary, meaning she is not eligible to receive delegates. 

Haley said Sunday she chose to not compete against Trump in the caucus because the Silver State was already “bought and paid” for by his campaign.

In South Carolina, meanwhile, Haley is currently polling more than 30 points behind Trump, coming in at an average of 21.8% compared to his 52.0%, according to RealClearPolitics.

With 87% of estimated votes counted in the Democratic primary, Biden had recorded 37.2% support, more than enough to thwart his nearest challenger, Rep. Dean Phillips (D-Minn.), who attained 19.6% of the vote.

As of early Wednesday, another 30.8% of ballots in the Democratic race were unprocessed write-in votes, the vast majority of which were expected to go to Biden as well and push his  comfortably above 50%.

Self-help author Marianne Williamson was a distant third, with 4.8% of the vote.

Biden declined to register for the New Hampshire primary ballot following a calendar dispute between the Democratic National Committee and state officials.

The DNC had attempted to move the first-in-the-nation primary to South Carolina on Feb. 3, but New Hampshire refused to comply, since state law mandates it hold its primary at least a week before any other state.

To counter Biden’s snub, state Democratic bigwigs put their influence behind the “Write-in Biden” initiative, which placed volunteers at polling places, put up signs and sent out mail instructing voters on what to do on primary day.

Longtime Democratic strategists feared that Biden’s absence from the ballot could lead to a repeat of the 1968 primary, when then-President Lyndon B. Johnson also was not listed on the ballot and announced he would not seek another term following a narrower-than-expected win over Sen. Eugene McCarthy (D-Minn.)

Phillips said Tuesday night that Biden had “absolutely won tonight, but by no means in a way that a strong incumbent president should” before vowing to “go to South Carolina, and then we’re going to go to Michigan and then we’re going to go to 47 other states.”

 

 

ATTACHMENT THIRTY ONE – FROM @

open redacted

 

ATTACHMENT THIRTY TWO – FROM THE WASHINGTON POST

GEN Z MIGHT BE THE MAGA MOVEMENT’S UNDOING

By Jennifer Rubin

January 28, 2024 at 7:45 a.m. EST

 

Four-times-indicted former president Donald Trump has been successfully selling white Christian nostalgia, racism and xenophobia to his base. However, the Public Religion Research Institute’s massive poll of 6,616 participants suggests that what works with his base might pose an insurmountable problem with Gen Z teens and Gen Z adults (who are younger than 25).

Demographically, this cohort of voters bears little resemblance to Trump’s older, whiter, more religious followers. “In addition to being the most racially and ethnically diverse generation in our nation’s history, Gen Z adults also identify as LGBTQ at much higher rates than older Americans,” the PRRI poll found. “Like millennials, Gen Zers are also less likely than older generations to affiliate with an established religion.”

Those characteristics suggest Gen Z will favor a progressive message that incorporates diversity and opposes government imposition of religious views. Indeed, “Gen Z adults (21%) are less likely than all generational groups except millennials (21%) to identify as Republican.” Though 36 percent of Gen Z adults identify as Democrats, their teenage counterparts are more likely to be independents (51 percent) than older generations.

Opinion: 2024 won’t be a Trump-Biden replay. You can thank Gen Z for that.

Ideologically, “Gen Z adults are the most likely of any generation to identify as liberal, at 43%, compared with one in four members of the Silent Generation (24%), baby boomers (25%), and Gen Xers (25%), and 39% of millennials.” However, Gen Z women are much more liberal than Gen Z men: “There is also a pronounced gender gap among Gen Z adults, with 47% of Gen Z women and 38% of Gen Z men identifying as liberal.” A racial divide exists, but it’s not as great as one might imagine: “White Gen Z adults are more likely than their non-white counterparts to identify as conservative (32% vs. 23%), but there is no significant difference in the proportion who identify as liberal.”

And, in contrast to the MAGA movement that gives voice to white Christian nationalists, “Gen Z adults are notably less likely to identify as white Christians and more likely to identify as religiously unaffiliated than older generations, with the exception of millennials.”

 

On specific issues, Gen Z voters overwhelmingly favor affirmative action and student loan forgiveness. As with older generations, they also favor allocating money for technical or trade school, but a huge majority also favors support for political and community work. Previous PRRI polling showed younger voters more supportive of abortion rights than older Americans. A raft of other polling shows them more concerned about climate change than older Americans.

 

Gen Z voters are less trustful of government, organized religion, news organizations, the criminal justice system and the police than older generations are. A warning for those courting these voters: “Gen Z adults (58%) and Millennials (60%) are significantly less likely than Gen Xers (70%), Boomers (80%), and members of the Silent Generation (85%) to agree that voting is the most effective way to create change in America.”

Nevertheless, these younger Americans are hardly agnostic about politics. To the contrary, “Gen Z adults are notably more likely than older generations to have signed an online petition (36% vs. 30% or less of older generations) or to have followed the social media profile of someone with different views (21% vs. 16% or less),” the PRRI poll found. “Gen Z adults are also more likely than older generations (with the exception of millennials) to have posted on social media about an issue that matters to them (32% vs. 25% or less of Gen Xers and older generations) or encouraged others to be politically active on social media (18% vs. 12% or less of Gen Xers and older generations).”

All this suggests younger voters are eager to put use their time and money in furtherance of their values — on- and off-line: “Gen Z adults are notably more likely than older generations to have volunteered for a group or cause (30% vs. 24% or less) or attended a public rally or demonstration in person (15% vs. 8% or less).”

Opinion: Meet the Gen Zers with a plan to take the fight to MAGA country

None of this is good news for a Republican Party whose base tries to eradicate the division between church and state, wants to ban abortion, targets LGBTQ youths, dismisses climate change as a hoax and opposes race-based affirmative and student loan forgiveness. Given that “majorities of both Gen Z adults (64%) and Millennials (59%) believe that older generations will never fully understand the struggles of younger Americans,” Republicans also seem to have missed the chance to nominate a much younger presidential candidate to contrast with President Biden.

Though there is plenty of promising news about Gen Z for Democrats (e.g., less religious, more diverse, more progressive, agreement on some key issues), there are also some warning signs for Democrats seeking the votes of those who distrust older generations and are skeptical of voting. Democrats might want to tweak their message accordingly.

First, overt partisan appeals (You live better under Democrats!) might carry little weight with voters so indifferent to party affiliation. By contrast, stressing that the Biden administration made headway on key progressive aims (including a massive investment in green energy) and warning about the dangers of a right-wing onslaught (including deportation of dreamers and other undocumented immigrants) might be more effective.

In that regard, sending Kamala Harris, the first Black and first female vice president, to college campuses to talk about guns, abortion, the environment and other issues looks like a smart move. (Harris’s message that voters’ “freedom” is at stake provides a helpful contrast to a party wanting to impose its religious views on the rest of us.)

Second, given high levels of distrust of news organizations (only 37 percent of Gen Z adults said they have some or a great deal of trust in them) and the mainstream media’s predilection to treat politics like a horse race, Democrats will need to make the case directly to younger voters (most likely through social media) that the stakes are very high. They must repeat ad nauseam: These Americans’ vote matters a great deal. Holding up examples in which voting makes all the difference might be critical to turning out these voters.

Finally, the MAGA movement has presented a classical fascist message: Only some people are “real” Americans; others threaten the purity of our blood. There could be nothing more off-putting to a generation distinguished by its diversity, tolerance, suspicion of powerful institutions and opposition to organized religion. Biden certainly can use Trump’s own words to emphasize how offensive that vision is in a multicultural, multiracial democracy. Making 2024 about a values-based crusade might be essential to turning out these voters.

If younger voters come to see 2024 as a battle for an inclusive and free America, not merely another partisan election, perhaps they will turn out in great enough numbers to defeat the MAGA threat.

 

 

ATTACHMENT THIRTY THREE – FROM WASHPOST

FRUSTRATED BY BIDEN, BLACK MEN PONDER THEIR OPTIONS

Outside Detroit, some see little change from four years ago and have not decided how to vote in November

By Michael Brice-Saddler  January 27, 2024 at 6:00 a.m. EST

 

PONTIAC, Mich. — The neighborhood he grew up in was always a bit rough around the edges, and it has frayed even more over the years, but Bryan Killian-Bey found reasons to smile as he drove through it on a recent winter day: his grandmother’s old, now-abandoned house and the school that used to be a hangout spot for the area’s kids.

But the smile fled as Killian-Bey, 59, steered his truck farther into the city’s core, which has rapidly declined during years of economic turmoil, leaving streets once lined with vibrant homes and businesses now riddled with empty lots. Without fail, he said, Democratic canvassers show up around election time vowing to improve conditions for him and his neighbors, but it never happens.

He voted for President Biden in 2020, but this time Killian-Bey says he and others in his predominantly Black neighborhood aren’t so sure. “I’m torn between voting and not voting at all. A lot of us are,” Killian-Bey said. “I don’t think Biden is it, but I don’t see what else is out there.” He wants Democrats to “give me substance. You can’t dangle carrots and assume we’ll vote for you just because we don’t like the other platform.”

Political analysts say Killian-Bey’s views illustrate a waning enthusiasm among Black voters, particularly Black men, toward Biden and the Democratic Party. A series of polls in recent months have alarmed party strategists and liberal organizers and reportedly frustrated the president, who is facing a tight race for reelection against former president Donald Trump, the Republican front-runner.

A New York Times-Sienna poll in late October found that 22 percent of Black voters in six battleground states, including Michigan, would support Trump if the general election were held today, while 71 percent said they would support Biden.

Trump won the support of just 8 percent of Black voters in the 2020 election and 6 percent in 2016, according to the Pew Research Center’s validated voter study. Although few strategists believe Trump could get 20 percent of the Black vote in the next election, even a small uptick would spell trouble for Biden, especially in swing states with large shares of Black voters, such as Michigan, where Biden edged Trump 50.6 percent to 47.8 percent in 2020. A more realistic danger for Biden, political strategists say, is that dissatisfaction among some Black voters may drive them to sit out in November.

Can the city of Pontiac steer itself to revival like nearby Detroit?

Cliff Albright, co-founder of the Black Voters Matter Fund, said that while the polls do not mean the sky is falling for Biden’s campaign, “it just might be drizzling.”

He said conservative talking points have resonated with some Black voters who feel disillusioned or have economic grievances, even though Biden has made more significant gains in reducing unemployment and creating jobs in his first three years than Trump did, including for Black Americans.

“It’s speaking to this idea that Democrats haven’t done anything for you — they’ve let you down and taken you for granted,” Albright said. “But I always say in every piece of disinformation is a kernel of truth. They find that kernel, that grievance, and they feed on it.”

The Biden-Harris campaign and Democratic leaders have taken notice of the sinking enthusiasm among Black voters, particularly after a 10 percentage-point decline in Black voter turnout in the 2022 midterms compared with 2018. The campaign has accelerated its efforts to appeal to Black voters, including a pilot plan that uses digital messaging and “trusted messengers” to spread the word about Biden’s accomplishments, as well as a $25 million advertising campaign on Black and Hispanic media in swing states.

“We know we can’t take any voters for granted, especially Black voters, young voters, who’ve been a crucial bloc for the Biden-Harris coalition,” said Michael Tyler, communications director for the campaign. “We have work to do to remind these communities of what we’ve accomplished for them in the first three years.”

The administration says Biden has delivered for Black voters in numerous ways. The Black unemployment rate hit an all-time low of 4.7 percent last spring. The administration has created programs to boost historically Black colleges and Black-owned small businesses. The Justice Department has launched investigations into law enforcement agencies for systemic misconduct. Biden has diversified the courts in unprecedented ways.

“More Black women have been appointed to federal circuit courts than every other president in American history has appointed,” Biden said recently at a historic Black church in Charleston, S.C. “Every single, solitary one counted. And we’re going to keep going.”

And the president is seeking to speak more directly to Black voters about initiatives that benefit them. When talking to Black audiences, for example, he frequently highlights a pipe replacement program to reduce lead exposure, a health risk that disproportionately affects communities of color.

Black voters have for decades been the most consistent supporters of Democratic candidates in presidential elections, noted Leah Wright Rigueur, an associate professor of history at Johns Hopkins University. Black turnout rose sharply in 2008 and then declined in 2016 when former president Barack Obama was no longer on the ballot.

But Black men are more likely than Black women to vote for Republicans; in 2016, 14 percent of Black men supported Trump compared with 4 percent of Black women, according to Pew’s validated voter study, helping fuel a Republican narrative that Black men were a potentially fruitful source of converts. In 2020, 12 percent of Black men supported Trump compared with 5 percent of Black women.

“There’s an assumption that because Donald Trump is Donald Trump, he’ll have zero support among Black voters. That couldn’t be further from the truth,” Rigueur said. “Amongst a small subset of Black men, there is more of a willingness to entertain Republican overtures. And that is distinctly gendered. Black women are less likely to entertain it.”

 

Many Black voters say they are disappointed that Biden, despite his promises, failed to win a sweeping voting rights bill or police reform legislation. While that is largely due to Republican opposition, some civil rights leaders argue that Biden did not spend enough political capital on such bills, especially compared with favored causes like the Ukraine war.

In any case, civil rights measures often resonate less with Black men, who may view economic prosperity as a more realistic way to get ahead, said Theodore Johnson, a scholar on race and electoral politics at the think tank New America.

“Democrats talk a lot about the Voting Rights Act, the Supreme Court and Republicans using the filibuster to prevent good things from happening. The implication is the only way civil rights can be advanced is if we pass more laws and get more favorable rulings on racial equity,” Johnson said. “Some Black men say, ‘To hell with it. ... This is America, a capitalistic country, and if I’m well off, people will treat me right because the color green is more important than the color of my skin.’”

Clyburn: Biden not breaking through 'MAGA wall'

And many Black Americans, like other voters, may not be feeling the strong economy in their daily lives, given stubbornly high prices and interest rates.

For Black men in metro and suburban Detroit — Pontiac is roughly 30 miles northwest of the city — grievances against Biden and the Democrats run the gamut. Branden Snyder, executive director of Detroit Action, which promotes civic engagement among Black and low-income residents, said some Black voters feel used by Democrats.

“You hear ‘Biden is looking out for Latinos, Biden is looking out for Asians. They passed an anti-Asian hate bill, but where’s our legislation?’” Snyder said. “Other times, it’s ‘Well, Trump gave me the [stimulus] check.’ Or it’s ‘Trump isn’t that bad, yeah he didn’t do s--- for our communities, but at least someone is telling it like it is.’”

 

Some of this rhetoric is amplified by advertisements or social media, Snyder said. He cited rapper Kodak Black, who was among those offered clemency from weapons charges on Trump’s final day in office and recently endorsed the former president on the podcast “Drink Champs."

In August, rapper YG , who famously wrote the song “F--- Donald Trump,” said on a podcast that the Black community “forgave” Trump after he rolled out the 2020 Paycheck Protection Program intended to help small businesses during the pandemic. The former president, he said, was “passing out money.”

Community organizers around Detroit have tried to counter those ideas by creating spaces for Black men to speak freely about politics and the issues affecting their lives.

One such conversation took place recently at a strip mall restaurant called P’s and Q’s Bakery and Cafe in northwest Pontiac. The owners opened up the restaurant after hours and grilled burgers for 15 or so civically engaged Black men who had driven through the snow from across the Detroit metro area.

Biden’s economy vs. Trump’s, in 12 charts

 

 

ATTACHMENT THIRTY FOUR – FROM GUK

HOW AN ALLEGED OFFICE ROMANCE COULD DERAIL THE TRUMP ELECTION INTERFERENCE CASE

Fulton county DA Fani Willis and prosecutor Nathan Wade may be forced to step down from Georgia’s case against Donald Trump

By Sam Levine  Thu 25 Jan 2024 07.00 EST

 

After spending nearly three years seeking to hold Donald Trump and his allies accountable for trying to overturn the 2020 election, the Fulton county district attorney, Fani Willis, faces a series of imminent, critical choices that could upend her consequential case against the former president and 14 remaining co-defendants.

“The stakes could hardly be higher,” said Clark Cunningham, a law professor and ethics expert at Georgia State University.

 

Michael Roman, a seasoned Republican operative and one of the defendants in the wide-ranging racketeering case, filed a motion earlier this month seeking the disqualification of Willis and Nathan Wade, an outside lawyer hired by Willis in 2021 to assist with the Trump case. In court filings, Roman alleged Willis and Wade were in a romantic relationship and Wade had used some of the more than $650,000 he earned from his work for her to pay for vacations for the two of them. Bank records made public last week showed Wade had paid for tickets for himself and Willis to California in 2023 and Miami in 2022.

Neither Willis nor Wade has confirmed or denied a romantic relationship yet, and Willis has said she will respond in a court filing due on 2 February. A hearing on the request is set for 15 February. Willis has said all of the special prosecutors she hired were paid the same rate.

While experts cautioned they were waiting for Willis and Wade to respond to Roman’s claims, it has already caused a headache for Willis, whose case has long been seen as one of the strongest efforts to hold Trump accountable for 2020. Because the case is in Georgia state court, it is also immune from Trump’s interference should he win the election.

“As a legal matter, I don’t see much of anything as of yet that would make me think that a disqualification is likely,” said Anthony Michael Kreis, a law professor at Georgia State University who has closely followed the case. “In terms of the political bucket, it is both an optics disaster, but it’s also been a lot of political malpractice from the office for not responding. So this drip, drip, drip is a problem.”

A disqualification would upend the case against Trump and significantly delay it. If the judge Scott McAfee were to disqualify Willis’s office from handling the case, the executive director of the Prosecuting Attorneys Council of Georgia would appoint a replacement. There’s no time limit on how long that could take. “It could entirely derail the entire enterprise,” Kreis said.

Wade was a municipal judge and well-known lawyer in the Atlanta suburbs with little prosecutorial experience before Willis hired him to work on the Trump case. The two met in 2019 during a legal education course for judges, and he became a confidante and mentor to Willis. Willis told the New York Times in 2022 that Wade was not a first choice to work on the prosecution team, but that she approached him after other more experienced lawyers turned her down. Wade was tepid, too, she told the Times, telling her he didn’t have much prosecutorial experience. She eventually convinced him to join the team. “I need someone I can trust,” she told the Times.

Roman’s accusation has prompted national interest in Wade’s ongoing divorce. Willis was subpoenaed for a deposition as part of that case, but a judge this week put off requiring her to testify.

Regardless of what happens legally, Trump is likely to use the salacious allegation to continue to try to undermine Willis’s credibility. While his lawyers did not join Roman’s motion, Trump has already weighed in.

“When is the Great State of Georgia dropping the FAKE LITIGATION against me and the others? ELECTION INTERFERENCE! The case is a FRAUD, just like D.A. Fani Willis and her ‘LOVER’,” he wrote in a post on his Truth Social platform on 20 January.

Norman Eisen, a former “ethics czar” under Barack Obama, has been supportive of Willis, and argued that disqualification isn’t merited under Georgia law. Still, he has called for Wade to step aside.

“Questions about gifts and related matters go to Willis’s and Wade’s obligations to the Fulton County District Attorney’s office, and have no connection to assuring the defendants a fair trial,” he wrote in an essay in Just Security with the former US attorney Joyce White Vance and Richard Painter, a former ethics czar under George W Bush.

“Although the Georgia law on disqualifying a prosecutor would permit Wade to remain on the case as well, in our view he should voluntarily step down. His continued presence will create a distraction, and his departure, in addition to an on-the-record hearing in court, is the best path to dispense with any lingering concerns,” they wrote.

Willis has had a brush with disqualification already. In July of 2022, when a special purpose grand jury was still investigating the case, she held a political fundraiser for Charlie Bailey, the Democratic opponent of Burt Jones, the Republican nominee for lieutenant governor, who served as a fake elector for Trump in 2020. Jones was under investigation by the special purpose grand jury at the time. Judge Robert CI McBurney disqualified Willis’s office from handling any part of the case against Jones.

“An investigation of this significance, garnering the public attention it necessarily does and touching so many political nerves in our society, cannot be burdened by legitimate doubts about the District Attorney’s motives,” McBurney wrote in his disqualification order. A replacement special prosecutor still has not been appointed.

McBurney also admonished the DA’s office during a hearing, calling it “a ‘What are you thinking?’ moment”.

Stephen Gillers, a legal ethics expert at New York University, agreed that there was no conduct identified in Roman’s motion that would cause the indictment to be dismissed – an opinion d by other experts.

“Indictments do not get dismissed because of behavior like this. Nothing about the allegations suggests that the indictment is in any way tainted,” he said in an interview.

He also agreed that Willis’s conduct likely would not result in disqualification. And the fact that Wade was paid a high hourly rate was not in itself grounds for him to be disqualified. “Every lawyer who bills by the hour has that interest. Hourly billing is quite common nationally. So of course the lawyer has an interest in a continuation of a case,” he said.

Still, Gillers said he was concerned by the vagueness of the invoices Wade had submitted and that were approved by the Fulton county district attorney’s office. They would not pass muster at most government agencies or corporations, he said.

“They’re generic, they are in whole numbers. Eight hours, six hours, seven hours. They don’t break down the particular tasks that were done. For someone like me, looking at that, that’s a red flag,” he said.

“In my view, he has to step aside, unless the board of commissioners or other Fulton county official, knowing all the facts, approves of the arrangement, and designates someone other than Willis to review Wade’s bills,” he continued. “His position is tainted by the romantic relationship unless there is informed consent from the appropriate authority in Fulton county.”

By filing the allegations as part of the court case, and not directly with a disciplinary body, Roman may have made a strategic decision to try and muddy the legal issues in the case, understanding the optics for Willis would look bad, he added.

Cunningham said he was waiting for more information to evaluate the merits of Roman’s disqualification claim. But regardless of what McAfee rules, he said, there are likely to be efforts to appeal that could drag out the case. Willis, he said, should step aside from the case and let a chief deputy or someone else take over and decide whether Wade continues on the case.

“The argument that the case as it moves forward is being motivated improperly goes away. That is absolutely the best way to make sure that the motion to disqualify isn’t granted,” he said.

“It minimizes it just to say it’s a question of optics, though that’s certainly the case,” he said. “Right now, they’re the story. Every day. And that’s bad in every possible way. It’s not good for public confidence in this case, which is needed.”

 

ATTACHMENT THIRTY FIVE – FROM THE WASHINGTON POST

FORGET ABOUT SECURING THE BORDER. IT WON’T WORK.

By Eduardo Porter   January 18, 2024 at 8:00 a.m. EST

 

Calls to “secure the border” have never been anything but political theater — slogans to prove commitment to a safe homeland. Migrants have kept coming regardless, pushed from precarious lives, and pulled by the promise of security and economic progress in the United States.

Managing migration demands a different conversation, one that focuses less on the border’s impregnability and more on the mechanisms and incentives driving people toward it; one that speaks of the coordination needed with other countries on the migration path to jointly manage the flow of people across the hemisphere; one that takes account of migrants’ contribution to the nation’s prosperity.

Washington, unfortunately, is incapable of this kind of talk. The Biden administration seems out of ideas. And standing behind a standard-bearer deploying xenophobia as a selling point in a hotly contested bid for reelection, Republican calls to “secure the border” amount to little more than a political bludgeon.

Consider the demands presented by House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) in a letter to President Biden last month. Johnson objects to asylum seekers being released to wait for their day in immigration court and would like to see more of them quickly expelled. He wants Mexico’s help to house and retain migrants. He wants to end the parole program offered by the Biden administration to encourage asylum seekers to apply through official channels rather than crossing the border. And, of course, he also wants the wall.

Nothing in recent U.S. history suggests this wish list can achieve the speaker’s goal of stopping large numbers of migrants from coming to the United States.

 

Immigrants in the 1980s were, for the most part, not seeking asylum. But millions still flocked to the United States. They were largely from Mexico, but also from Central America. Fleeing destitution and hungry for jobs, they crossed the border surreptitiously and settled in the United States as best they could — without legal authorization.

Walls and fences have gone up since then; motion sensors and drones have been deployed to detect and pursue people crossing the border. Border Patrol staffing has increased fivefold since the early 1990s, from around 4,000 to around 20,000. Nevertheless, the number of immigrants living in the United States without authorization climbed to more than 11 million in 2018, up from 3.5 million in 1990.

Today, migrants come from further afield, including from South America, Asia and Africa. And there are more of them: Border Patrol agents ran into prospective migrants more than 2 million times in fiscal 2023, surpassing the peaks of 1986 and 2000. About 1.1 million more showed up at official ports of entry. Most hope to apply for asylum. And yet they are driven by the same goals as those who sought the United States decades before: a safe environment that provides an opportunity to survive and, hopefully, flourish.

Republicans are right that whatever the Biden administration is doing is not working. The president’s new strategy — to draw migrants toward official channels — isn’t working to stem the flow. The backlog of migrants waiting for their day in immigration court passed 3 million in November. Border agents are encountering more than 300,000 migrants each month. Encounters exceeded 3 million last year. The very concept of asylum is losing public support.

But the GOP has nothing better to offer. Its ideas are born of the myth that President Donald Trump’s draconian policies — forcing Mexico to house Central Americans; separating kids from their families; putting some in cages — were successful. But migrants kept coming: U.S. agents encountered almost 860,000 migrants at the border in fiscal 2019, before the outbreak of covid-19 began to hold them back. That figure is almost double what it was before Trump took office. The backlog in immigration court increased by 142 percent during his administration, to nearly 1.3 million.

The White House has already bent to the GOP’s will. It convinced Mexico to continue to take returned Cubans, Haitians, Nicaraguans and Venezuelans who passed through Mexico on their way to the U.S. border. It seems willing to make it tougher to claim asylum in the United States.

It’s not surprising that Republicans remain dissatisfied. It is, after all, an election year. And yet their additional, central demand — that the Biden administration stop using parole to provide legal paths for asylum seekers that would otherwise launch themselves at the border — would only increase the chaos they claim they want to end. (Perhaps that is the cynical intention.)

The U.S. political system has always struggled with immigration. The last major shot at comprehensive immigration reform, passed in 1986 during the Reagan administration, was thoughtful by today’s standards. Provisions to offer legal status to the unauthorized population, alongside new temporary work visas and a threat to bring criminal charges against employers who hired unauthorized immigrants in the future, aspired to address all the main issues.

Unfortunately, it didn’t work. Employers had to require proof of workers’ legal status, but it didn’t matter how solid that proof might be. Migrants armed with bogus papers kept coming to work. Employers kept hiring them. Temporary work visas gathered dust in a filing cabinet somewhere in D.C. As a result, the idea of a grand bargain was poisoned.

Migration demands a different bargain today. It, too, must be comprehensive. It must restore discipline to the asylum process, tightening rules to ensure it remains a viable option for people truly fleeing for their lives, pursued by a predatory state or organized crime. But it also must acknowledge that a large number of migrants are driven by broader pressures — such as hunger, climate change and a desire for opportunity. Hardening the border will not keep them out.

Given the large numbers, any new deal will probably require other countries in the hemisphere to help shoulder the responsibility; to offer migrants a viable new home rather than simply a passageway to the north. And in the United States, it will require something that might look like that old reform of 1986 — a plan that acknowledges migrants’ contribution to American prosperity, and that treats migration not as a threat but as an opportunity.

 

PEANUT GALLERY

 

Where's the discussion of the GOP's consistent blocking of all meaningful legislation? It's absolute do-nothing-but-complain stance. This article fails to place the blame on, or even discuss or mention, the U.S. politicians most responsible for this crisis.

 

Ed Kissam

 

Porter's analysis is a welcome one in stressing the need for serious analysis of the many factors contributing to migration flows. It is a crucial antidote to the ill-informed and simplistic arguments being put forth by the Freedom Caucus and other MAGA-aligned politicians. Unfortunately, these simplistic notions (build a better wall along the entire Southwestern border, tighten criteria for granting asylum without any additional funding, expand the scope of expedited removal) are abstract, rhetorical hand-waving. Still more unfortunately, millions of Americans, without giving much thought to the complex dynamics of migration, have naively bought into this notion.

I've paid some attention to the dynamics of migration and border control over the past year (including the phony arguments for continuation of Title 42) and data on detained migrants. It seems clear that networks of immigrant-smugglers are energetically and successfully marketing the dream of coming to the U.S. to economically-decimated communities throughout Latin America and across the world (e.g. Mauritania and others). The Biden administration made a sensible decision to try to counter these "push" factors with messaging in migrant-sending communities about the dangers of the migrant journey and the realities of US immigration policy. However, these efforts to discourage potential migrants have obviously not worked well. I wonder whether the messaging to discourage migration was simply grossly underfunded, ineptly implemented, or abandoned without any serious assessment of its promise. I see that there is now no discussion of this practical component of a strategy, social marketing, to counter immigrant smuggler marketing as part of the solution. Ignoring that possibility is unfortunate because the crudely-sketched solutions such as those in the MAGA H.R. 2 playbook are clearly put forward as election-year posturing, not as a genuine effort to even begin to try to solve the problem.

 

irvrube

 

A thoughtful and thought-provoking piece with good stats - assuming they are accurate - to support the arguments being made. I would add one more thing to consider here: when Labor with a capital L opposed immigration in the 80s, and even earlier, it was fear of jobs being taken away. Some groups still argue that immigrants, legal or otherwise, are keeping Americans from finding work. To the contrary, immigrants are hungry for work and Americans, as a whole, are unwilling or unable, skill-wise or culturally, to do many of the service and hard labor jobs immigrants are willing to endure.

Without them, we would not have crops picked, food prepped and served, and detritus cleaned off the tables and from the homes and businesses in which we live and work. If you really want to decrease immigration, increase the share of those jobs being held by American citizens. With no jobs available, fewer immigrants would have reason to come here.

Good luck with that, though.

 

Tropicalpaulo

 

As an aging progressive dem, I have always had mixed feelings about it. The migrants have usually spent some hard time and money reaching the border. They gave up their homes. It had to be bad for them to do that.

But the numbers are too large. We can't take everyone who wants to live here. And there is no end in sight because there are so many countries where life is precarious or intolerable.

 

katherine61

 

Draconian measures are now the only solution to the invasion at our southern border. Because Biden made an announcement that immigrants are welcome when he took office dismantling all of the work Trump did to get it secured. The public is now saddled with billions to care for these people who broke the law and walked into our country. They feel they are entitled to a job, healthcare and schooling. They are not. Airlines are taking the illegal immigrants from all over the world to our border in Mexico by the millions. They are not all walking up from Central America. It is now a big business.

The only way to stem the flow is deportation on a large scale. We once took a million a year to fill needed jobs. Now would be a good time to announce to the world that we are not taking anyone for a few years. We have done that before.

Cartels are making billions in human trafficking. We must put them out of business. We did it before and we can do it again.

 

Activist9491

 

A wall won’t work unless you want to keep out 70-90 year old migrants ( too old to climb ladders)!

40% simply fly in and overstay their vacation visas.

https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2015/sep/08/jorge-ramos/ramos-40-undocumented-immigrants-come-air/

 

Tombat

 

Huh?! 2019 over 800k. Who was president then? Only the pandemic slowed it. The author is correct. This did not start with Biden and it won’t end with whoever is the next president unless we approach it much differently. The world is getting smaller. Less resources and many more people. And more land is not going to suddenly “grow” to accommodate them. 6.1 billion in 2000. Over 8 billion today. The writing is on the wall, or rather in the sands.

 

ICU2022

 

Wannabe immigrants need to be loaded onto airplanes or buses and taken back home. If they want to apply for asylum, they should apply from their home countries. Sorry.

They find the money to pay smugglers; they could use the money to better their lives.

 

Michele Lea Morin

 

Biden “undid all the work that Trump did?” Seriously? If that is your belief after TFG and Sessions decided that zero tolerance was a great idea and took babies and children from their parents’ arms, well then, I feel sorry for you. And to add insult to injury, hundreds of these children were “lost” to any follow-up. Biden immediately put his resources into finding them and returning them to their parents. Did that solve the problem that has confounded every president. Biden did carry over TFG’s Covid directive to deny entrance for any reason, and, in fact, it was extended beyond the pandemic. Oh, and Obama deported more illegal immigrants than TFG without the inhumane draconian measures. And, no, he never “secured the border”… his beautiful wall is an epic failure and Mexico never paid for it; your tax dollars did.

 

GreenEggsandHam

 

As climate change worsens, our immigration problems are only going to get far, far worse. Millions of people will be displaced, and with nowhere to go, they will come to the US. Worse, if climate change brings the worst that is predicted, we will have millions of Americans forced to flee their homes due to rising seas. Other than fighting climate change (which R's have no desire to face) I don't have any solutions; but neither do Republicans. Their "solutions" are useless, simply offered to make Biden look worse with zero likelihood they could work.

"Nero fiddled while Rome burned." R's need only look in the mirror to see who is destroying this country.

 

 

 

ATTACHMENT THIRTY SIX – FROM  DES MOINES REGISTER

NIKKI HALEY: ENDING RECKLESS SPENDING WILL BOOST OUR ECONOMY AND STOP INFLATION

I’ll veto any bill that doesn’t get us back to pre-pandemic spending levels and end hundreds of billions in corporate bailouts and special-interest handouts.

By Nikki Haley   Guest columnist

 

My husband, Michael, spent the holidays deployed overseas with the South Carolina Army National Guard. He’s doing what countless Iowans and Americans have always done — keep our country safe from foreign enemies who want to destroy us.

But back at home, Democrats and Republicans have been destroying America’s economy and finances for a long time. Reckless spending is stifling our economy even as our military is falling behind. And they’re crippling us at the worst time. Communist China is the most dangerous enemy we’ve faced in at least 75 years, yet our politicians are spending America toward defeat. We need a president who stops this madness. We have to win this struggle and keep the peace.

This crisis is unprecedented. In the past 10 years, we’ve added more than $10 trillion to the national debt—pushing it well over $30 trillion. We’ll hit $34 trillion in the coming weeks. We’re now adding around $1.5 trillion a year. Every cent of wasteful spending drives inflation now and tax hikes later — hitting families with both.

We’re on the verge of spending more on interest than national defense. America will be like a family that’s maxed out its credit cards. We won’t have money for emergencies. Yet the world we live in is getting more dangerous, not less, and America is getting less able to protect itself.

I speak hard truths, and here’s a painful one. Republicans and Democrats are both to blame. Barack Obama and Joe Biden both loved to waste the American people’s money, but so did George W. Bush and Donald Trump. Everyone talks about the good economy under Trump — but at what cost? He put us $8 trillion in debt in just four years. Our kids will never forgive us for that.

My highest priority as president will be to keep Americans safe. That’s why I’ll veto any bill that doesn’t get us back to pre-pandemic spending levels and end hundreds of billions in corporate bailouts and special-interest handouts. I’ll reform entitlements, the biggest drivers of our national debt, while protecting everyone who depends on Social Security and Medicare.

And we will send a message to Congress. They have only passed four budgets on time in 40 years. That is unacceptable. That is why we will institute a new system: No on time budget, no pay. Congress has one job. They owe it to the taxpayers to take their job seriously.

Register exclusive: Iowa Caucus candidates in their own words on the issues

·         Ryan Binkley: Bidenomics is widening the wealth gap, and we have to stop it

·         Ron DeSantis: Immigrants are overwhelming us; I will control the border

·         Nikki Haley: Ending reckless spending will boost our economy and stop inflation

·         Vivek Ramaswamy: Eminent domain for CO2 pipelines is wrong, and unconstitutional

·         Asa Hutchinson: America should reward work; I know how to empower our workers

·         Donald Trump: This is how I will end Joe Biden's border disaster on day one

 

 

ATTACHMENT THIRTY SEVEN – FROM THE NEW YORK TIMES

FACT-CHECKING CANDIDATES’ SPARRING OVER SOCIAL SECURITY AND MEDICARE

The top presidential candidates are vowing to protect the entitlement programs for current seniors, though some have floated changes for younger generations. But they’ve muddied each other’s current positions.

By Angelo Fichera  Jan. 6, 2024

 

Top contenders for the 2024 presidential election in recent weeks have accused each other of jeopardizing Social Security and Medicare, key entitlement programs for seniors.

The future of the programs has been fodder for endless political debate — and distortions — because of the long-term financial challenges they face.

Social Security’s main trust fund is currently projected to be depleted in 2033, meaning the program would then be able to pay only about three-quarters of total scheduled benefits. Medicare, for its part, is at risk of not having enough money to fully pay hospitals by 2031.

President Biden, former President Donald J. Trump, Nikki Haley, the former governor of South Carolina, and Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida are among the candidates zeroing in on those vulnerabilities, often by referring to one another’s previous positions.

Here’s a fact-check.

WHAT WAS SAID

“Trump in 2020: We will be cutting Social Security and Medicare”
— Biden campaign in a December social media post that includes a clip of Mr. Trump

This is misleading. The Biden campaign has repeatedly claimed that cutting the programs is one of Mr. Trump’s policies. But while Mr. Trump has in the past suggested he might entertain trims to entitlements, he has repeatedly vowed during his campaign to protect the programs.

In this case, the Biden campaign shared a short clip of Mr. Trump during a Fox News town hall in March 2020 and ignored his clarification at the time.

The clip shows a Fox News host, Martha MacCallum, telling Mr. Trump, “If you don’t cut something in entitlements, you’ll never really deal with the debt.”

“Oh, we’ll be cutting, but we’re also going to have growth like you’ve never had before,” Mr. Trump responded.

The Trump administration immediately walked back his comments and said he was referring to cutting deficits. “I will protect your Social Security and Medicare, just as I have for the past 3 years,” Mr. Trump wrote in a post a day later.

During his time in office, Mr. Trump did propose some cuts to Medicare — though experts said the cost reductions would not have significantly affected benefits — and to Social Security’s programs for people with disabilities. They were not enacted by Congress.

Like other candidates, including Mr. Biden, Mr. Trump has shifted his positions over time. In a 2000 book, Mr. Trump suggested, for people under 40, raising the age for receiving full Social Security retirement benefits to 70. Before that, he said he was open to the idea of privatizing the program, even if he did not like the concept. He no longer advances those positions.

Mr. Trump suggested last month that the government could avert any Social Security changes by expanding drilling in the United States, but experts say that is not feasible.

 “Dedicating current oil and gas leasing revenues to Social Security would cover less than 4 percent of its shortfall, and it would be impossible to fix Social Security even if all federal land were opened to drilling operations,” according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.

WHAT WAS SAID

“And unlike Ron DeSanctimonious, we will always protect Social Security and Medicare for our great seniors. He wanted to knock the hell out of Social Security and Medicare.”
— Mr. Trump during a campaign rally in mid-December

This is misleading. While in Congress, Mr. DeSantis supported budget frameworks that proposed raising the full Social Security retirement age to 70, but leaving the early retirement age the same. As a presidential candidate, he has said he would not cut Social Security for seniors but has at times expressed openness to changes for younger people without specifying what those are.

Currently, workers are eligible for their full benefits at their full retirement age, which varies from 66 to 67 depending on year of birth. But recipients can qualify for reduced benefits as early as age 62.

 

As a Florida congressman, Mr. DeSantis did vote for Republican budget proposals — which would not have changed the law on their own — that supported gradually raising the full retirement age for Social Security to 70. The proposals did not call for changing the early retirement age.

The proposals also called for changes to Medicare, including by eventually increasing its retirement age to 67 or 70, from 65, and transitioning the program to “premium support,” in which the government would provide payments for seniors to shop for various health care plans.

Mr. DeSantis has not made clear his plans for Medicare as he runs for president, but he has often rejected the idea of changing Social Security. “We’re not going to mess with Social Security as Republicans, I think that that’s pretty clear,” he said in March.

That said, he has signaled openness to adjusting the program for younger people. In a July interview on Fox News, Mr. DeSantis said, “Talking about making changes for people in their 30s or 40s, so that the program’s viable, you know, that’s a much different thing, and that’s something that I think there’s going to need to be discussions on.”

The DeSantis campaign did not respond to a request for comment.

WHAT WAS SAID

“Nikki Haley, she has claimed that the retirement age is way, way, way too low. That’s what she said. So you’ve got a lot of people that have worked hard their whole life. Life expectancy is declining in this country. It’s tragic, but it’s true. So to look at those demographic trends and say that you would jack it up so that people are not going to be able to have benefits. I mean, I don’t know why she’s saying that.”
— Mr. DeSantis on CNN last month

This needs context. Life expectancy in the United States dropped during the coronavirus pandemic, but it is inching back up. And Ms. Haley has only called for changes to Social Security for younger people — not unlike what Mr. DeSantis himself has entertained.

“The way we deal with it is, we don’t touch anyone’s retirement or anyone who’s been promised in, but we go to people, like my kids in their 20s, when they’re coming into the system, and we say, ‘The rules have changed,’” Ms. Haley said in an August interview with Bloomberg. “We change retirement age to reflect life expectancy.”

Ms. Haley did not specify what the new retirement age should be. “What we do know is 65 is way too low, and we need to increase that,” she said when pressed. “We need to do it according to life expectancy.”

On Medicare, Ms. Haley has proposed expanding Medicare Advantage, under which private companies provide plans and are paid by the government to cover the beneficiary.

Yet for 2023, the government was projected to spend $27 billion more for Medicare Advantage plans than if those enrollees were in traditional Medicare. Experts note that expanding Medicare Advantage while achieving overall savings would require structural changes that would be politically challenging to implement.

“It would require a change in payment policy that would likely run into fierce opposition,” said Tricia Neuman, senior vice president at the health nonprofit KFF and executive director for its program on Medicare policy.

Curious about the accuracy of a claim? Email factcheck@nytimes.com.

 

ATTACHMENT THIRTY EIGHT – FROM CNN

HERE’S WHAT WE KNOW ABOUT THE 2024 PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES’ TAX PROPOSALS

By Tami Luhby, CNN  Published 9:27 AM EST, Thu January 11, 2024

CNN — 

Creating a flat tax. Eliminating the federal gas tax.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, who are vying for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination, threw out some catchy phrases about their tax plans at CNN’s debate on Wednesday. But they did not provide many details.

With the start of the 2024 primary season only days away, DeSantis, Haley, former President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden have yet to flesh out their tax proposals. They are unusually thin for this point in the election cycle, experts said.

 “They’re being deliberately unspecific,” said Howard Gleckman, senior fellow at the nonpartisan Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center.

All the candidates, including Biden, have at least one thing in common: They want to extend at least some of the measures of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, which Trump championed and signed into law. The fate of the individual income tax provisions will be a top priority of whoever wins the November election since they are set to expire at the end of next year.

However, continuing the individual income and estate tax cuts would slash federal revenue by $2.6 trillion over a decade, according to the right-leaning Tax Foundation. And restoring some business and international tax measures that were changed by the 2017 TCJA law would reduce revenue by up to another $1.1 trillion.

That drop in tax revenue would come at a time when both political parties are worried about widening federal budget deficits and mounting debt, sparking battles in Congress over funding government agencies for fiscal 2024.

Here’s what we currently know about the candidates’ tax plans.

DeSantis: The Florida governor voiced his support of a flat tax at CNN’s debate but said only “if people are better off than they are now.”

 “I want people paying less taxes,” he said, voicing a similar sentiment to what he said at CNN’s town hall last week.

Asked at the debate whether working families would pay the same rate as billionaires, DeSantis said that “working-class people” would pay no tax – referencing people who make $40,000 or $50,000. Then it would be a single rate after that level.

However, DeSantis has not specified what the single rate would be, nor what he would do about deductions, exemptions and credits.

Setting the rate so that it would reduce taxes for all Americans would be tricky.

“If you move to one single flat rate that cuts taxes for everyone, you’d be talking about a very, very low single flat rate, such that you’d lose a lot of revenue,” said Erica York, senior economist at the Tax Foundation.

The idea of a flat tax has been floated in prior presidential elections. Steve Forbes, Rick Perry, Ben Carson, Herman Cain and Ted Cruz are among those who have proposed various versions of a flat tax.

DeSantis said at CNN’s town hall last week that he wanted to eliminate the IRS. But that would be very difficult to do since the federal government needs some agency to collect taxes and make sure taxpayers are adhering to the rules.

DeSantis has also said he would extend the TCJA’s individual tax rates for a longer period of time and seek to make them permanent. And he would tighten international tax rules and make permanent a now-expired TCJA provision that allowed businesses to immediately deduct 100% of their investment in machinery and equipment.

The DeSantis campaign did not return a request for more details.

Haley: The former governor ticked off several of her tax proposals at CNN’s debate.

“We’re going to eliminate the federal gas and diesel tax in this country and cut taxes on the middle class and simplify those brackets,” she said.

But she hasn’t specified what exactly she would do.

Haley also said at the debate that she wants to make permanent the TCJA’s small business tax cuts. The law contains a provision that allows pass-through businesses, such as partnerships formed by lawyers, doctors or investors, to deduct up to 20% of their income on their tax returns through 2025. But she hasn’t said she would extend all of the TCJA’s individual income tax measures.

In addition, Haley supports eliminating $500 billion in green energy subsidies in the Inflation Reduction Act, which Democrats pushed through Congress in 2022. And she would reconsider the state and local tax deduction, which allows taxpayers to deduct a portion of their state and local income, general sales and property taxes from their federal income taxes. The TCJA limited the deduction, which largely benefits blue states, to a total of $10,000.

The Haley campaign did not return a request for more details.

Trump: Among the former president’s most notable tax proposals is his desire to place a universal baseline tariff of 10% on all US imports. It’s in keeping with his less favorable view of global trade, which prompted him to impose numerous tariffs during his administration. While he argues tariffs protect US manufacturers, many economists say that higher tariffs hurt American consumers, businesses and the economy.

Trump has yet to provide details on this measure. Among the questions are whether the tariff would be on top of existing tariffs or would replace them, York said.

In addition, Trump has supported extending the TCJA’s individual income tax breaks and has talked about reducing the corporate tax rate from the current 21% to 15%.

The Trump campaign did not return a request for more details.

Biden: The president has made it clear during his first term that he supports raising taxes on corporations and higher-income Americans but would protect those earning less than $400,000 annually.

The Biden campaign hasn’t released a tax plan, but he has put out comprehensive proposals as part of his annual budget packages.

In his most recent one, he supported increasing the top individual income tax rate to 39.6%, from 37%, for individuals earning more than $400,000 and married couples with incomes above $450,000.

The president is also interested in a so-called Billionaire Minimum Income Tax, which would levy a 25% minimum tax on all the income of the wealthiest .01% of Americans, including their appreciated assets. It would hit those with a net worth of more than $100 million.

He would also increase the corporate income tax rate to 28%, from 21%, and increase other levies on businesses, including quadrupling the stock buyback tax to 4%.

“I’m not anti-corporation, but it’s about time they start paying their fair share in taxes,” Biden said at a campaign event last month.

 

ATTACHMENT THIRTY NINE – FROM WASHPOST

THE REPUBLICAN PRIMARY IS OVER. GET READY FOR THE LONG, GRIM REMATCH.

By Karen Tumulty    January 23, 2024 at 10:55 p.m. EST

 

MANCHESTER, N.H. — Shortly after the New Hampshire primary was called for Donald Trump on Tuesday night, his last remaining Republican opponent put on a brave face and stepped to the stage of a hotel ballroom filled with her disappointed supporters.

“This race is far from over. There are dozens of states left to go, and the next one is my sweet state of South Carolina,” declared Nikki Haley, who served as the Palmetto State’s governor for six years before being chosen by Trump to serve as his ambassador to the United Nations.

But it’s time for the rest of us to quit pretending. With Trump’s solid win here, the primary season is effectively over. A humiliation in South Carolina awaits Haley, unless she decides to end her campaign before its Feb. 24 primary.

What that means is that the battle is now between the former president and the current one — a rematch of two unpopular, geriatric men whom most Americans have said they do not want.

But Trump is indeed the opponent President Biden was hoping for. His campaign manager, Julie Chavez Rodriguez, quickly put out a statement that said in part: “Tonight’s results confirm Donald Trump has all but locked up the GOP nomination, and the election-denying, anti-freedom MAGA movement has completed its takeover of the Republican Party.”

The slog between now and November will be long and grim and bitter. Add to that the unprecedented situation in which a major-party nominee is battling 91 criminal charges.

As former New Hampshire Republican chairwoman Jennifer Horn put it at an election-eve roundtable hosted by Bloomberg News, the election season that lies ahead will be “record anxiety-inducing for American citizens throughout the entire thing.”

There were only 22 delegates at stake in New Hampshire. But as the primaries move forward, Haley is not likely to find an environment more welcoming than the Granite State, where those who register as “undeclared” can vote in either party’s primary. Exit polls indicated that 65 percent of these independents voted for Haley; 74 percent of registered Republicans voted for Trump.

New Hampshire’s GOP primary electorate, which was poised to set a new turnout record, was also less tethered to the MAGA movement than the voters who participated in Iowa’s Republican caucuses last week.

Preliminary exit polls indicated that New Hampshire Republican voters were about evenly split on the question of whether Biden was legitimately elected or won by fraud; by comparison, two-thirds of Iowans surveyed as they entered the Republican caucuses said Biden did not win legitimately. In New Hampshire, only about half of Republican voters said they would consider Trump fit to be president if he were convicted of a crime; in Iowa, about two-thirds said so.

Normally, things don’t come to such an early end in a primary season in which there is not an incumbent president on the ballot.

But although only two small states have voted, Trump’s domination of the Republican Party appears complete. Its establishment has rapidly closed ranks behind him — something that would have been hard to imagine in the wake of the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol by Trump supporters who were trying to overturn his reelection defeat.

 

ATTACHMENT FORTY – FROM THE GUARDIAN U.K.

WE MUST START URGENTLY TALKING ABOUT THE DANGERS OF A SECOND TRUMP PRESIDENCY

With New Hampshire behind, the question isn’t who’s running but whether US democracy will endure

By Margaret Sullivan  Thu 25 Jan 2024 07.01 EST

 

With Trump’s victory in New Hampshire, the battle lines are drawn for November. Unless something very weird happens, we’re looking at a Joe Biden and Donald Trump rematch.

It’s time – past time, really – to sweep away any remaining delusions about the viability of a more moderate Republican challenger or what a second Trump term would bring.

Now the question isn’t who’s running but whether American democracy will endure.

To put it bluntly, not if Trump is elected.

He’s already told us, many times over – and in abundantly clear terms – what he will do with a second term:

He’ll prosecute his perceived enemies with the full power of the government. He’ll call out the military to put down citizen protest. He’ll never allow a fair election again.

“Twelve more years” is no longer just a joke to pander to the raucous and red-capped faithful.

“The serious scholars of fascism are now saying that the ‘F-word’ is merited,” Jeff Sharlet, a Dartmouth professor and author of The Undertow: Scenes from a Slow Civil War, told me in an interview on Wednesday.

Do Americans really want to live in a fascist or authoritarian nation? Some may believe it will work out just fine – that the loss of freedom may hurt others, but not them – but most of us don’t want that. Or we wouldn’t if we were fully aware of the consequences.

I talked with Sharlet about the actions that the mainstream press and regular citizens can take now that we know what we know.

Newsrooms big and small, he believes, need to educate their staffs about the dangers of fascism.

“There needs to be a pause,” he said, in coverage as as usual, and an internal reckoning. Sharlet suggests that media leaders bring in scholars – for example, Yale’s Timothy Snyder, who wrote On Tyranny – to lead newsroom discussions, based on clear historical precedent. Ruth Ben-Ghiat, author of Strongmen: Mussolini to the Present, would be another excellent choice.

After the New York Times wrote that Trump’s New Hampshire win “raises questions” about Nikki Haley’s path forward, Sharlet scoffed, noting that such questions have been settled for some time “but a press built for the horse race keeps touting a path that never existed when it should be retooling itself to cover a rapidly mutating fascism”.

Is such a retooling really possible? Of course it is.

The fact that many newsrooms now have democracy teams or democracy reporters suggests that they understand the problem to some extent. But they need to get much more urgent about it.

That kind of change takes clear leadership from the top.

The New York Times – now more influential than ever, as other news organizations shrink and fade by the day – should set an example. Its top editor, Joseph Kahn, with his background as a foreign correspondent in China, is extremely well positioned to take the lead.

What about regular citizens?

Perhaps most importantly, they need to stop tuning out. They shouldn’t throw up their hands and decide not to care about politics or the future of the country.

“People need to pay attention to the exhaustion they feel and know that it is a symptom of acquiescence and adaptation,” Sharlet told me.

As Ben-Ghiat told me on my American Crisis podcast, that exhaustion is part of the strongman’s playbook.

Trump creates chaos, and we grow tired of it. Weary of the relentless flow of bad news, the dire warnings, the anxiety, we retreat into our personal lives or our political bubbles.

More advice from Sharlet for citizens: form a “boring book club” and read – for example – Project 2025 from the Heritage Foundation, the shocking (and nearly 1,000-page) rightwing plan to dismantle the federal government and install political allies after a Trump election.

As the Associated Press wrote: “Trump-era conservatives want to gut the ‘administrative state’ from within, by ousting federal employees they believe are standing in the way of the president’s agenda and replacing them with like-minded officials more eager to fulfill a new executive’s approach to governing.”

Neither politics reporters nor regular citizens need to become full-blown scholars of authoritarianism over the next nine months.

But failing to understand and act upon what’s at stake – either out of ennui or because “we’ve always done it that way” – is dangerous.

Now, with the clarity of the New Hampshire primary behind us, it’s high time to take things seriously.

·         Margaret Sullivan is a Guardian US columnist writing on media, politics and culture

 

|

ATTACHMENT FORTY ONE – FROM NEWSWEEK

CAN TAYLOR SWIFT SWAY THE 2024 ELECTION?

Taylor Swift Breaks Impressive New Record

By Katherine Fung  Jan 28, 2024 at 6:00 AM EST

 

Taylor Swift is arguably the most famous person in America, and while she's largely avoided politics, her stratospheric fame raises questions about whether an endorsement from the pop star could help decide the next president.

Exclusive polling conducted for Newsweek by Redfield & Wilton Strategies found that 18 percent of voters say they're "more likely" or "significantly more likely" to vote for a candidate endorsed by Swift.

Seventeen percent said they would be less likely to vote for a Swift-backed candidate, while 55 percent would be neither more nor less likely to do so. Of all the respondents, 45 percent said they were fans of the singer, and 54 percent said they were not. Only 6 percent said they were not familiar with Swift.

The survey, which had a sample size of 1,500 eligible voters, was conducted on January 18 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.53 percent.

"She's influenced popular culture, sports, the economics of entire regions of the U.S.," communications consultant James Haggerty told Newsweek. "So why not politics and elections?"

Media consultant Brad Adgate agreed. "Swift is in the class by herself," he told Newsweek.

 

"She's so talented and so popular and so ingrained in pop culture," he continued. "No one is close to her."

Newsweek reached out to Swift via email for comment.

Even though Swift has been making music for nearly two decades, she has reached an unparalleled level of celebrity in the past year. Last month, her wildly popular Eras tour became the first tour to cross the billion-dollar mark, she was named Time magazine's 2023 "Person of the Year," and her relationship with the Kansas City Chiefs' Travis Kelce has driven a massive increase in football viewership.

"Celebrity power in elections has grown because celebrity power itself has grown," Haggerty said. "Media and social media are now the central organizing framework of many Americans' lives. And in a world awash in messages, it's the celebrity voices that really resonate."

"In a world where a reality show star can become president—and maybe become president twice—all of this makes perfect sense," he said, referring to Donald Trump, who co-produced and hosted The Apprentice for almost a decade before his first presidential run.

Newsweek's poll found that an endorsement from Swift would have the greatest impact on younger voters. Roughly 3 in 10 Americans under 35 said they'd be more likely to vote for a candidate backed by Swift. Only 4 percent of Americans 65 and older said they'd be swayed by a Swift endorsement.

"Celebrities are deities in this young nation," public relationship expert Richard Laermer told Newsweek.

 

In an election where the youth vote is expected to be key to winning the White House, Swift's influence is all the more important. The 2024 election will see 8 million potential new voters in the electorate, according to the Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement. That means 41 million members of Gen Z will be eligible to vote in November.

Younger voters have typically voted for Democrats, and the voting bloc was credited with helping President Joe Biden win in 2020. But with many young people unhappy with Biden's handling of the Israel-Hamas war, Trump has been able to gain ground among them, further highlighting how critical the youth vote will be in 2024.

A New York Times poll from last month showed Trump up 6 points over Biden among voters under 30. In July, he had trailed the president by 10 points.

Although Swift is especially revered by young Americans, the actual impact of a potential endorsement is not known. Keir Keightly, an associate professor of media studies at the University of Western Ontario, expressed skepticism about whether the attention that celebrities can bring to an election translates into electoral change.

"We have an idea that celebrities have some sort of superpower over their fans that encourages us to perhaps overestimate how much actual mind-changing power celebrities have," he told Newsweek.

"You could argue that the rise of the Republican world came at the exact same time that rock artists were speaking out against the Vietnam War, against right-wing, conservative politics," Keightly said.

There is a long history of pop culture figures backing politicians. Frank Sinatra and his Rat Pack pals famously cheered on John F. Kennedy's campaign. Willie Nelson had a close relationship with Jimmy Carter both before and after his presidency. And Jimmy Stewart, Charlton Heston and Cary Grant were all vocal supporters of Ronald Reagan.

Oprah Winfrey's endorsement of Barack Obama's 2008 campaign was one of the most widely covered developments in that election cycle, and economists estimated that her support was worth over a million votes in the Democratic primary race.

A 2024 endorsement would not be the first time Swift has weighed in on political races. Although she's largely stayed out of politics, she endorsed two Democratic candidates for Congress in Tennessee in 2018 as part of her opposition to Republican Marsha Blackburn's Senate campaign. Blackburn went on to win her race, defeating Swift-backed Phil Bredesen with more than 54 percent of the vote. Swift's other candidate, Jim Cooper, won his House race.

"There's a historical case to look to, which is the Marsha Blackburn campaign. How did that turn out for Taylor?" Keightly asked. "People have endorsed candidates, and they lose."

He said people could mistake celebrity influence as being powerful enough to sway elections because of the level of emotion that these figures bring to their fans.

"We want to believe that they can sway it," he said. "We want to believe in the power of the celebrity, even though it's not clear that it actually translates into actual electoral success. There's a lot of wishful thinking."

Keightly said the real electoral power behind Swift is a larger movement that she and cultural phenomenons like the Barbie movie are a part of.

"It's a wave of feminism that is not just in the media and popular culture. It's a real thing that's happening," he said. "It's largely organized around ideas of girlhood and feminist girls becoming feminist women [that] are about to have a very strong demographic position in elections in the next 20 years."

Adgate said the most immediate influence Swift could have in an election would be to simply encourage people to vote. The singer-songwriter has already been successful at driving efforts to get out the vote. After she made an Instagram post encouraging people to cast ballots in the 2022 midterms, more than 30,000 people registered to vote through Vote.org.

"She'd be best to do a public service announcement that tells people, 'If you don't like the way things are going or are afraid of what's going to happen, register to vote," Adgate said.

Swift could face controversy for weighing in on the presidential race, he said, adding that while the election will be over in November, the 34-year-old's career has much further to go.

 

 

ATTACHMENT “A” – FROM THE ASSOCIATED PRESS

 

RESULTS – REPUBLICAN


97% reporting

 

Donald Trump

54.3%

174,948 votes

Gained 12 delegates

o     

 

Nikki Haley

43.3%

139,469 votes

Gained 9 delegates

o     

 

Ron DeSantis

0.7%

2,251 votes

o     

 

Chris Christie

0.4%

1,411 votes

o     

 

Vivek Ramaswamy

0.2%

776 votes

o     

 

Mike Pence

0.1%

382 votes

o     

 

Ryan Binkley

<0.1%

289 votes

o     

 

Mary Maxwell

<0.1%

266 votes

o     

 

Tim Scott

<0.1%

179 votes

o     

 

Doug Burgum

<0.1%

174 votes

o     

 

Asa Hutchinson

<0.1%

110 votes

o     

 

Rachel Swift

<0.1%

100 votes

o     

 

Scott Ayers

<0.1%

77 votes

o     

 

Darius Mitchell

<0.1%

68 votes

o     

 

Glenn McPeters

<0.1%

46 votes

o     

 

Perry Johnson

<0.1%

25 votes

o     

 

Peter Jedick

<0.1%

25 votes

o     

 

David Stuckenberg

<0.1%

24 votes

o     

 

Scott Merrell

<0.1%

21 votes

o     

 

Donald Kjornes

<0.1%

18 votes

o     

 

Robert Carney

<0.1%

15 votes

o     

 

Hirsh Singh

<0.1%

10 votes

o     

 

John Castro

<0.1%

9 votes

o     

 

Samuel Sloan

<0.1%

6 votes

 



Sam Sloan: books, biography, latest update

See Amazon

https://www.amazon.com › Sam-Sloan

 

Samuel Howard Sloan (born September 7, 1944) is an American chess player and publisher who lives with his family in The Bronx, New York.

 

 

Other candidates

0.4%

1,264 votes

 

ATTACHMENT “B” – FROM THE ASSOCIATED PRESS

RESULTS – DEMOCRATIC

New Hampshire primary results

 

New Hampshire

Joe Biden wins

The Associated Press has called this race · Delegates distributed proportionally among top candidates · Updated at 5:09 PM EST

96% reporting

 

 

Joe Biden write-in

55.7%

65,345 votes

·          

 

Dean Phillips

19.6%

22,918 votes

·        

Unprocessed write-in

10.1%

11,859 votes

·          

 

Marianne Williamson

4.6%

5,420 votes

·          

 

Derek Nadeau

1.1%

1,331 votes

·          

 

Vermin Supreme

0.6%

729 votes

·          

 

John Vail

0.5%

576 votes

·          

 

Donald Picard

0.3%

305 votes

·          

 

Paperboy Prince

0.2%

254 votes

·          

 

Paul LaCava

0.1%

149 votes

·          

 

Jason Palmer

<0.1%

114 votes

·          

 

President Boddie

<0.1%

114 votes

·          

 

Mark Greenstein

<0.1%

108 votes

·          

 

Terrisa Bukovinac

<0.1%

87 votes

·          

 

Stephen Lyons

<0.1%

74 votes

·          

 

Gabriel Cornejo

<0.1%

68 votes

·          

 

Tom Koos

<0.1%

64 votes

·          

 

Frankie Lozada

<0.1%

60 votes

·          

 

Armando Perez-Serrato

<0.1%

55 votes

·          

 

Star Locke

<0.1%

54 votes

·          

 

Raymond Moroz

<0.1%

43 votes

·          

 

Richard Rist

<0.1%

36 votes

·          

 

Eban Cambridge

<0.1%

31 votes

·        

Other candidates

6.3%

7,424 votes

 

ATTACHMENT “C” – ELECTION NIGHT TIMELINES

 

C1 FROM TELEGRAPH U.K. 

New HAM (EST)pshire primary results: Trump's win as it happened 

24 January 2024 • 4:33PM (EST)

 

KEY MOMENTS 

3:15AM (EST)  0315 US

In full: Democrat primary results

2:17AM (EST)  0217

Why Haley fell short

6:37AM (EST)  2137

Trump will 'clearly' be Republican candidate, says Biden

4:29AM (EST)

Haley 'failed badly' in New HAM (EST)pshire, says Trump

3:25AM (EST)

Haley vows to continue race after Trump wins New HAM (EST)pshire

 

Donald Trump cemented his status as the frontrunner in the Republican presidential race as he comfortably won the New HAM (EST)pshire primary on Tuesday.

The former president won 54 per cent of the vote in the state, with his only remaining rival Nikki Haley coming second with 43 per cent.

Having finished third in Iowa and second in New HAM (EST)pshire, Ms Haley’s position is precarious. But she told supporters she is still in the fight – at least until South Carolina.

“This race is far from over,” she insisted. “South Carolina voters don’t want a coronation, they want an election. And we’re going to give them one.”

Mr Trump hit back at his one remaining serious rival, saying in his victory speech that she was an “impostor” who lost “very poorly”.

No Republican who won both Iowa and New HAM (EST)pshire has ever lost the nomination battle. That historical data point is gold for Trump, now widely seen as the party’s presumptive flag-bearer heading into November.

Mr Trump’s former chief of staff said he had pulled off a remarkable comeback by winning both the Iowa caucuses and the New HAM (EST)pshire primary.

“If you asked me a year ago, I thought there was no chance he could win,” Mick Mulvaney told BBC Radio 4’s Today ProgrAM (EST)me.

“January 6 was looming very large at the time. I thought his ceiling in the Republican party was 35 per cent and clearly its closer to something between 50 and 60.”

Mr Trump has a clear lead in the national polls. He has already seen off Ron DeSantis, who in January last year was polling less than 10 points behind him but pulled out of the race on Sunday after his cAM (EST)paign flatlined.

Mr Mulvaney added: “He managed to take this barrage of criminal investigations and turn them masterfully to his advantage, to make it look like the Biden administration was out to get their political opponents, and he has had a message which is very compelling.”

The race now turns to Nevada, where Trump is already claiming an all-but-certain victory, and next month to Haley’s home state of South Carolina, where he leads the former governor by some 30 percentage points.

Benedict Smith, US REPORTER and Tim Sigsworth

5:06AM (EST)

That's all for today

Thank you for following The Telegraph’s live coverage of the New HAM (EST)pshire primaries.

4:55AM (EST)

Our readers' views on the New HAM (EST)pshire primary

Below the line, readers are discussing the results of the New HAM (EST)pshire primary:

Jonathan Wynn said: “Donald Trump got the most votes ever in the New HAM (EST)pshire primary. Nikki Haley should do the right thing and drop out and support him as Ron DeSantis has.

“The objective has to be to defeat Joe Biden, win back the Senate and hold Congress with an increased majority.”

S T said:  “Whatever Donald Trump is or isn’t, he’s no statesman. A bit of humility from him in his nomination would be welcome, instead of bad mouthing and insulting Nikki Haley.”

Jonny Bandwidth said: “Joe Biden is clearly terrible, but Donald Trump is a spoiled bully at heart. Quite sad really that the two of them are running for one of the most powerful positions on the planet.”

Join the conversation in the comments section below - just look for the speech bubble underneath the first post. 

4:03AM (EST)

Poll: Who should be Trump's presidential running mate?

With Donald Trump now the clear favourite for the Republican presidential nominee, who do you think his prospective vice-president should be?

Vote in the poll below.

3:31AM (EST)

Trump ‘cannot win round voters who rejected him in 2020’

Donald Trump will be unable to win over the voters who rejected him in 2020 in November’s presidential election, his former chief of staff has said.

Mick Mulvaney told BBC Radio 4’s Today ProgrAM (EST)me that Mr Trump would likely win over the parts of the Republican party who are hostile or indifferent towards him.

“The question is can he get any of the people that didn’t vote for him in 2020 to come back and vote for him,” he said.

“I think the answer there is no. That doesn’t end the analysis, however, because I think Joe Biden is going to have a great deal of difficulty getting people to vote for him again because of his age and apparent infirmity.”

3:15AM (EST)

In full: Democrat primary results

Joe Biden was the clear winner in the Democratic party’s primary in New HAM (EST)pshire.

The president won 67 per cent of the vote, far ahead of Dean Phillips in second on 19.9 per cent and Marianne WilliAM (EST)son on four per cent.

3:11AM (EST)

Trump has made a remarkable comeback, says former chief of staff

Donald Trump’s former White House budget director and chief of staff has said the former president has pulled off a remarkable comeback in becoming the clear frontrunner for the Republican nomination.

Mick Mulvaney told BBC Radio 4’s Today ProgrAM (EST)me: “If you asked me a year ago, I thought there was no chance he could win.” 

“January 6 was looming very large at the time. I thought his ceiling in the Republican party was 35 per cent and clearly its closer to something between 50 and 60.”

He added: “He managed to take this barrage of criminal investigations and turn them masterfully to his advantage, to make it look like the Biden administration was out to get their political opponents, and he has had a message which is very compelling.

“The message is this: ‘Look at what they are doing to me. Imagine if they can do this to me, just think about what they can do to you. Vote for me and I’ll make sure that doesn’t happen.’”

2:56AM (EST)

History is on Trump's side

Every Republican in history who has won both the Iowa caucuses and the New HAM (EST)pshire primary has gone on to be the party’s presidential candidate.

Donald Trump’s chances of challenging Joe Biden for re-election in November look almost certain after his victories in those two states.

The next two to vote are Nevada and South Carolina.

In the former, the former president is already claiming victory and in the latter, Nikki Haley’s home state, he is ahead in the polls by 30 points.

2:41AM (EST)

Watch: Nikki Haley vows to fight on

2:37AM (EST)

Republican voters expect Trump to be GOP nominee

The vast majority of Republican voters in New HAM (EST)pshire, about eight in 10, believe Donald Trump will win the nomination, a finding that cAM (EST)e after his dominant showing in Iowa.

Only about two in 10 say Nikki Haley will be the nominee. In a blow to the candidate, who has pitched herself as a Trump alternative, more than half of Ms Haley’s own supporters think Mr Trump will represent the party on the November ballot.

About eight in 10 say they decided before Iowa which candidate they would support. After the caucuses, three contenders ended their cAM (EST)paigns: biotech investor Vivek RAM (EST)aswAM (EST)y, former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis.

About six in 10 GOP voters say they had their minds made up more than a month ago, including about four in 10 saying they have known all along.

2:17AM (EST)

Why Haley fell short

Nikki Haley drew her support from groups that could be crucial in November. But those groups were minorities in the GOP electorate.

She beat Donald Trump AM (EST)ong primary participants who were not formally affiliated with any party. About half of Ms Haley’s supporters graduated from college, just as about half of them identify as moderates.

In many cases, her backers were simply uncomfortable with Trump.

Ms Haley performed well AM (EST)ong those who said Mr Trump did something illegal in at least one of the criminal cases against him. And in the 2020 presidential election, about half of Haley’s supporters voted for Biden, a Democrat.

Iowa exposed suburban voters as a potential weakness for Mr Trump. While Ms Haley did her best in New HAM (EST)pshire’s suburban communities, she only managed to pull even with Mr Trump in those areas.

2:01AM (EST)

Nomination of Trump could impact House and Senate races

Fears are rising on Capitol Hill over Donald Trump’s primary win and its potential impact, according to insiders. 

Despite some Republicans moving to back Donald Trump, there are worries within the GOP about Mr Trump’s impact down-ticket. 

The insider, a member of the House in a swing state, told CNN that nominating Mr Trump could cost the GOP control of the chAM (EST)ber.

“Twenty per cent of GOP voters will not vote for him,” the Republican member told CNN. 

“Independent voters think Biden is weak, but they hate Trump. And Dems — he motivates them to vote.”

1:38AM (EST)

Sign up for the Telegraph's WhatsApp channel

This week the Telegraph’s WhatsApp channel launched. Get the latest hand-picked updates of our best news, including on the election and analysis and comments from our writers. 

 

1:18AM (EST)

Latest poll update

Another polling update – a total of 75 per cent of the votes are now in, according to Edison.

Donald Trump has 54.2 per cent, while Nikki Haley has 43.7 per cent.

7:51AM (EST)

Super Tuesday 2024 explained

Super Tuesday can make or break a presidential candidate’s bid to win their party’s nomination – and Donald Trump hopes next year’s will mark the start of his White House comeback.

With more than a dozen states voting on Super Tuesday, it is the most consequential date in the cAM (EST)paign calendar apart from election day itself.

In 2024, Super Tuesday falls on March 5, just a day after Mr Trump’s first federal criminal trial is expected to begin.

Read the full explainer from Rozina Sabur, our deputy US editor, here

7:39AM (EST)

Phillips urged to suspend cAM (EST)paign against Biden

Ray Buckley, the New HAM (EST)pshire Democratic party chair, has urged Dean Phillips to chalk up his fight in the state as a “win” but suspend his cAM (EST)paign.

He told NBC: “I think he was certainly given a level playing field here, AM (EST)ple opportunity to get his message across. I don’t see the path where other states are as welcoming.

“I think he should take this as a win, as an accomplishment for getting nearly 20 per cent. And I think that let’s look forward to seeing how do we have a successful November.”

7:14AM (EST)

Haley needs 'less than 10pc gap' from Trump to stay in race

Nikki Haley needs to close the distance on Donald Trump’s lead in New HAM (EST)pshire to stay in the Republican race, a veteran pollster has said.

Frank Luntz told Bloomberg: “The question is, is the gap 10 per cent or more... if it’s less than 10 per cent she can make the case that she should stay in.

“If it’s more than 10 per cent when she put a lot  of time into here, she put a lot of effort, a lot of money into it... I don’t know how you continue a cAM (EST)paign when the next state is South Carolina – her state and she’s losing it by big numbers.”

Ms Haley is a former governor of South Carolina but is trailing Mr Trump in the state by around 40 points. Both of its senators have endorsed the former president.

6:52AM (EST)

Phillips 'will not quit' Democratic primaries

Dean Phillips has vowed to stay put in the Democratic primaries until polling shows whether he could successfully take on Donald Trump.

“I will not quit until I see those numbers at a time where people know my nAM (EST)e,” the Minnesota congressman said, according to CNN.

Mr Phillips added that if Joe Biden “miraculously improves” and is poised to beat Mr Trump, he would “of course” get behind him.

6:37AM (EST)

Trump will 'clearly' be Republican candidate, says Biden

Donald Trump is a threat to democracy, abortion rights and the economy, Joe Biden has claimed, in a pre-election swipe at his presumed rival. 

Both men won their respective primaries in New HAM (EST)pshire by a large margin on Tuesday, setting the stage for a repeat of their 2020 election battle in November.

Mr Biden said in a statement: “It is now clear that Donald Trump will be the Republican nominee. And my message to the country is the stakes could not be higher. 

“Our democracy. Our personal freedoms – from the right to choose to the right to vote. Our economy – which has seen the strongest recovery in the world since Covid. All are at stake.”

6:07AM (EST)

Haley: 'Donald Trump's only strategy is to lie'

5:57AM (EST)

Biden cAM (EST)paign starts selling anti-Trump merchandise

Joe Biden’s cAM (EST)paign has started selling its first merchandise for the 2024 election, according to reports, following Donald Trump’s victory in New HAM (EST)pshire.

In the hours after the contest was called for Mr Trump, the Biden-Harris website listed a T-shirt that reads: “Together, we will defeat Trump. Again”.

A statement previously put out by the cAM (EST)paign claimed the former president has now “all but locked up the GOP nomination”.

5:39AM (EST)

Pictures: Trump celebrates win in New HAM (EST)pshire

5:26AM (EST)

Trump attacks 'delusional' Haley

Donald Trump has also attacked Nikki Haley on his Truth Social platform, writing: “Haley said she had to win in New HAM (EST)pshire. She didn’t!!!”

He followed this up with two messages which read “delusional!!!” and “she cAM (EST)e in third last week!”, referencing her result in the Iowa caucuses.

5:13AM (EST)

Trump has 11-point lead with half of vote in

Donald Trump leads Nikki Haley by 54.6 per cent to 43.5 per cent with half of the New HAM (EST)pshire vote counted, according to Edison Research.

5:04AM (EST)

South Carolina senators tell Haley to bow out

Senior Republicans are continuing to call for Nikki Haley to drop out of the Republican race after coming second in the New HAM (EST)pshire primary.

Tim Scott, a South Carolina senator, told a rally of Trump supporters that it was “time for the Republican party to coalesce around our nominee”.

Senator Lindsey GrahAM (EST), from the sAM (EST)e state, claimed “this race is over” and added: “It is my hope that we can now all rally around President Trump as the Republican nominee in 2024, putting all our resources and energy into bringing the Biden Administration to an end.”

Ms Haley said this evening that she intended to fight on to her “sweet state” of South Carolina. The latest polls put her around 40 points behind Mr Trump in the state she used to govern.

4:44AM (EST)

Donald Trump wins New HAM (EST)pshire primary in huge setback for Nikki Haley

Donald Trump won the Republican primary in New HAM (EST)pshire, his second victory in a row, as his remaining rival Nikki Haley pledged to fight on to South Carolina next month.

The former president saw off Ms Haley’s challenge on Tuesday and becAM (EST)e the first Republican to win both Iowa and New HAM (EST)pshire in an open cAM (EST)paign in almost 50 years. His path to the Republican nomination for November’s cAM (EST)paign is now all but certain.

Speaking to supporters in Concord after polls closed, Ms Haley vowed to continue her cAM (EST)paign, against the odds, and face Mr Trump again in South Carolina on February 24.

Read the full article from Tony Diver, our US Editor, here

4:29AM (EST)

Haley 'failed badly' in New HAM (EST)pshire, says Trump

Donald Trump said Nikki Haley had a “very bad night” in the New HAM (EST)pshire primary as he accused his rival of falsely attempting to claim victory.

He told supporters: “This is not your typical victory speech. But let’s not have somebody take a victory when she had a very bad night. She had a very bad night.”

The former president added: “Who the hell was the impostor that went up on the stage before and, like, claimed the victory? She did very poorly, actually... she failed badly.

Mr Trump also hit out at Chris Sununu, the New HAM (EST)pshire governor who endorsed Ms Haley, claiming he is “the now very unpopular governor of this state”.

4:23AM (EST)

Trump is first Republican to win Iowa and New HAM (EST)pshire since 1976

Donald Trump has become the first Republican to win both Iowa and New HAM (EST)pshire in a competitive primary in almost 50 years, since Gerald Ford faced Ronald Reagan in 1976.

Ms Haley’s cAM (EST)paign may find heart in the fact that Mr Reagan fought to the very end of the cAM (EST)paign, despite taking heavy losses in the early states, and both reached the Republican National Convention without a majority of delegates. The convention ultimately chose Mr Ford and Mr Reagan was forced to wait four years for another attempt.

4:22AM (EST)

Trump on 55% as votes are counted

Donald Trump has widened his lead over Nikki Haley with roughly a third of the results calculated.

The former president has 55.6 per cent of the vote to Ms Haley’s 42.8 per cent, according to Edison Research.

4:05AM (EST)

'The Democratic Party is not on the up'

Some of the crowd here at Dean Phillips’ watch party are political tourists.

I’ve spoken to a few Trump supporters who are just here for the spectacle. One said he was here because Donald Trump’s watch party in Nashua was too far away.

Another, Michael Nichols, 52, said he will be voting for Mr Trump in November if he is the Republican nominee but believes Mr Philllips deserves to be the Democratic nominee and wanted to show his support for the congressman.

“The Democratic Party is not on the up and up,” he said. “The president should have been here and debating Dean.”

“I’d like to see Phillips go against Trump,” he added, “I think it’d be entertaining”.

4:04AM (EST)

Trump will ban abortion and undermine democracy, claims Biden

The Biden cAM (EST)paign says Donald Trump’s victory tonight shows the Republican party has been taken over by “the election denying, anti-freedom Maga movement”.

A statement, which has just been put out, continues: “Trump is offering AM (EST)ericans the sAM (EST)e extreme agenda that has cost Republicans election after election: promising to undermine AM (EST)erican democracy, reward the wealthy on the backs of the middle class, and ban abortion nationwide.

“Joe Biden sees things differently. He’s fighting to grow our economy for the middle class, strengthen our democracy, and protect the rights of every single AM (EST)erican. 

“While we work toward November 2024, one thing is increasingly clear today: Donald Trump is headed straight into a general election matchup where he’ll face the only person to have ever beaten him at the ballot box: Joe Biden.”

3:49AM (EST)

Phillips: Biden did not perform like 'a strong incumbent'

Dean Phillips is high- fiving his supporters as he strolls onto stage here in Manchester. “I love you all,” he says.

Mr Phillips congratulated Joe Biden for winning but said the result is “by no means in a way that a strong incumbent president should, but I respect him, he won.”

3:45AM (EST)

'Haley can drop out or help the Democrats'

Prominent Republicans are already piling pressure on Nikki Haley to drop out and give Donald Trump a clear shot at the presidency.

Texas senator John Cornyn said: “I have seen enough. To beat Biden, Republicans need to unite around a single candidate and it’s clear that President Trump is Republican voters’ choice.”

J. D. Vance, the senator for Ohio, said: “At this point Haley can either drop out or help the Democrats.”

3:33AM (EST)

Haley: Trump can’t lie about me in my home state

“Our fight is not over, because we have a country to save,” Ms Haley has said.

“In the next two months, millions of voters in more than 20 states will have their say, and we should honour them by allowing them to vote.

“We will have all the time we need to defeat Joe Biden. When we get to South Carolina, Trump is going to have a harder time falsely attacking me.”

She goes on to list her accomplishments as South Carolina governor. 

3:32AM (EST)

Haley: If Trump is 'mentally competent' he should debate with me

Nikki Haley is challenging Donald Trump to a debate after pledging to continue in the Republican primary race.

“I’ve long called for mental competency tests for politicians over the age of 75,” she says.

“Trump claims he do better than me in one of those tests. Maybe he would. Maybe he wouldn’t. But if he thinks that then he should have no problem standing on a debate stage.”

The swipe draws a long round of cheering and applause from the crowd of supporters. Mr Trump has avoided all five of the Republican debates so far.

3:29AM (EST)

'A Trump nomination is a Biden win'

In her speech, Haley is now moving onto her well-established cAM (EST)paign lines, pointing out that the Republican Party has a poor history of election results under Mr Trump.

“A Trump nomination is a Biden win and a KAM (EST)ala Harris presidency,” she says. The crowd boos.

“You can’t fix Joe Biden’s chaos with Republican chaos.”

She calls for mental competency tests for politicians over the age of 75, a threshold that would include both Mr Trump and Mr Biden.

3:29AM (EST)

'We keep moving up,' says Haley

At her results party in Concord, Haley continued: “We still have a way to go, but we keep moving up,” pointing out that she went from two per cent in the polls to the last one standing against Donald Trump.

“It’s time to put the negativity and chaos behind us,” she said. “We have an economy that is crushing middle class AM (EST)ericans.

“We have a Congress that fights about everything and accomplishes nothing. And we have Joe Biden in the White House making one bad decision after another, when he is making any decisions at all.”

The crowd interrupts her speech to start a chant of “Nikki! Nikki! Nikki!”

3:28AM (EST)

Haley concedes defeat at results party

Nikki Haley is speaking now at her results party in Concord. She is introduced as “the next president of the United States” and entered the stage to Survivor’s “Eye of the Tiger”.

“I want to congratulate Donald Trump on his victory tonight. He earned it, and I want to acknowledge that.,” she said.

“New HAM (EST)pshire is first in the nation, it is not the last in the nation. This race is far from over and there are dozens of states left to go.

“And the next one is my sweet state of South Carolina.“

3:27AM (EST)

Scale of Biden victory still not known

Joe Biden has won the New HAM (EST)pshire Democratic primary, according to the Associated Press, despite not having appeared on the ballot.

The president faced the prospect of an embarrassing, though entirely symbolic, defeat in the state AM (EST)id a dispute over the party’s primary calendar.

Mr Biden’s supporters held a write-in cAM (EST)paign to head off the efforts by his main challenger, Dean Phillips, a Minnesota congressman.

However, the full margin of victory is not yet known, and could still leave the president red faced.

3:25AM (EST)

Haley vows to continue race after Trump wins New HAM (EST)pshire

Nikki Haley has said she will keep fighting after losing the New HAM (EST)pshire primary, saying the state is “not the last in the nation”.

She told a crowd of supporters: “I want to congratulate Donald Trump on his victory tonight. He earned it. And I want to acknowledge that.

“Now you’ve all heard the chatter AM (EST)ong the political class, they’re falling all over themselves saying this race is over.

“Well I have news for all of them. New HAM (EST)pshire is first in the nation, it is not the last in the nation.

“This race is far from over, there are dozens of states left to go. And the next one is my sweet state of South Carolina.”

3:18AM (EST)

Is there any point in Nikki Haley cAM (EST)paigning now?

Donald Trump’s victory in this primary calls into question the viability of Nikki Haley’s cAM (EST)paign.

Ms Haley had a good shot at winning here and polled neck-and-neck with Mr Trump in some recent surveys, as her cAM (EST)paign was buoyed by enthusiastic independent voters and “Never Trumpers”.

Nonetheless, it seems Mr Trump has won his second primary in a row. No Republican in AM (EST)erican history has ever won both Iowa and New HAM (EST)pshire, and then lost the nomination.

Ms Haley has vowed to continue her cAM (EST)paign into South Carolina next month, then Super Tuesday on March 5. The margin between her and Mr Trump tonight will tell us how realistic that promise really is.

3:05AM (EST)

Santos spotted at Trump results party

George Santos, the disgraced Republican congressman, has turned up at Donald Trump’s results party.

Mr Santos was expelled from the House of Representatives last month after being accused of financial misconduct.

3:04AM (EST)

Will Donald Trump claim fraud?

The former president has laid groundwork to claim foul play in recent days, claiming Democrats could vote in the Republican primary race.

In fact, it’s only independent voters and registered Republicans who can cast a ballot.

Democrats could change their affiliation but the deadline for this was in October, as some voters only discovered when they went to the ballot box today.

I asked Mr Trump’s national press secretary, Karoline Leavitt, about his fraud claims at an event in Manchester over the weekend.

She didn’t want to get drawn on hypotheticals. “We will win,” she insisted.

3:02AM (EST)

Networks call Democratic primary for Biden

CNN and NBC have called the New HAM (EST)pshire Democratic primary for Joe Biden.

3:00AM (EST)

The polls have closed

The final New HAM (EST)pshire polls have just closed. Both Nikki Haley and Donald Trump now face a nail-biting wait as the votes are counted and verified.  8PM (EST)?

14:59AM (EST)

Analysts are already calling this race for Donald Trump

We don’t have any mainstreAM (EST) network calls for either candidate yet but analysts have begun to predict that Donald Trump has beaten Nikki Haley in this contest.

Frank Luntz, a veteran US pollster, has tweeted: “Trump will win tonight’s #NewHAM (EST)pshirePrimary… But not by the margins he is expecting.” He puts the Trump lead at between four and eight points.

Dave Wasserman, an elections analyst at Cook Political Report, said: “I’ve seen enough: Donald Trump wins the New HAM (EST)pshire Republican presidential primary, defeating Nikki Haley.”

We won’t have long to wait until the official results.

14:58AM (EST)

Haley 'will need large margins in properous towns' to win

Haley’s path to victory in New HAM (EST)pshire, if it still exists, will come via towns like Peterborough, a wealthy former mill town in southern New HAM (EST)pshire.

Prosperous towns like Peterborough, with their high proportions of educated voters, will need to deliver a large margin for Ms Haley.

Peterborough, and 13 other towns like it, voted for John Kasich, a moderate former Ohio governor, over Donald Trump during the last competitive Republican primary in 2016.

Ms Haley stopped here over the weekend and stressed to Peterborough’s residents the binary choice they face in an effort to energise its voters.

Mr Trump, meanwhile, is hoping for a strong showing in working-class communities. One town to watch is Derry - not to be confused with nearby, wealthier Londonderry.

Mr Trump won Derry by a large margin in the 2016 primary, as well as the general election that year and in 2020.

When I visited the town in October for a Trump rally, there were so many people who had come out to see him that the queue filled the entire car park of the sports hall hosting him. 

It will be interesting to see if that enthusiasm still remains. Mr Trump’s margin of victory here will give us a good indication. 

14:54AM (EST)

Luntz: Trump will win but contest will be close

Donald Trump will beat Nikki Haley in the New HAM (EST)pshire primary but “not by the margins he is expecting”, a veteran pollster has said.

Frank Luntz wrote on social media that the former president could win by as little as four points. Those who predicted a double-digit lead over Ms Haley “will look foolish”, he added.

14:47AM (EST)

'New HAM (EST)pshire isn't Trump country'

What does it take to win New HAM (EST)pshire? Jim Merrill, a veteran Republican strategist is a man who knows.

He’s worked on numerous presidential cAM (EST)paigns, including that of Mitt Romney, a former Massachusetts governor and now a US senator.

Winning New HAM (EST)pshire was a critical staging post for Mr Romney along the way to becoming the GOP presidential nominee in 2012.

Mr Merrill doesn’t believe the Granite State “is Trump country”.

Mr Trump did win here in 2016 but with just 35 per cent of the vote, AM (EST)id a crowded field of prominent candidates.

Have the 65 per cent of primary voters who didn’t want him last time changed their mind?

Mr Merrill points out that Mr Trump lost New HAM (EST)pshire in the 2020 general election by more than seven points.

”New HAM (EST)pshire has been good to him. But it’s not Trump country like other states,” he said.

14:39AM (EST)

'Trump is going to win,' says Haley staffer

Over in Concord, New HAM (EST)pshire, Nikki Haley’s catering department has also been working overtime for her results party and attendees have been treated to arancini and nachos. A fully-stocked bar is in operation, although the 150 or so reporters have largely been sticking to complimentary sparkling water and Oreos.

The mood AM (EST)ong guests is jovial but there is less confidence from cAM (EST)paign staff.

One staffer told me: “Personally, I think Trump is going to win.” 

“There was a poll that cAM (EST)e out a couple of days ago that showed him with an 18 per cent lead, which obviously doesn’t go too well for her. I hope she can shrink that 18 per cent, but ultimately I think that Trump will win.”

14:38AM (EST)

Trump takes early lead in primary

Donald Trump has taken an early lead in the New HAM (EST)pshire primary, with 51.1 per cent of the votes to Nikki Haley’s 48 per cent. Around 5 per cent of the vote has been tallied so far, according to Edison Research.

14:32AM (EST)

Can Dean Phillips embarass Biden in New HAM (EST)pshire?

I’m at Democrat Dean Phillips’ results night party, where there’s a sizeable crowd, plenty of fancy food and a strong serving of anti-Biden sentiment.

Mr Phillips, a businessman who is one of the wealthiest members of Congress, has put on a spread of croissant sandwiches, meatballs, fruit platters and much more.

One thing that is noticeable is how many young people are in the crowd. Drake’s “Hotline Bling” is blaring through the speakers.

Mr Phillips has consistently voted in support of Mr Biden’s legislative priorities. But the Minnesota Democrat has argued that the party is ready for a new generation of young people and polls suggest many younger voters agree.

We’ll have to wait and see if it will be enough to produce a result that embarrasses Mr Biden tonight?

The congressman has just walked into the Millyard Museum in Manchester and looks upbeat.

14:29AM (EST)

Who has Dixville Notch voted for in previous contests?

Since it began casting its votes before the rest of New HAM (EST)pshire in 1960, Dixville Notch has earned a reputation for picking Republican primary winners.

Nikki Haley took all six of the town’s votes when polls opened on Thursday midnight. The tally will make virtually no difference in a state where turnout has been predicted to pass the 300,000 mark, but at least it’s a good omen for her cAM (EST)paign.

Dixville Notch has selected the eventual winner in every contest from 1968 until 2012, when Mitt Romney drew with Jon Huntsman Jr. John Kasich narrowly beat Donald Trump in 2016 but lost the overall race.

14:06AM (EST)

New HAM (EST)pshire primary voters less likely to believe 2020 election was stolen

There is another interesting line in a second exit poll, conducted by NBC News, which finds that New HAM (EST)pshire primary voters are much more likely to believe that Joe Biden won the 2020 election legitimately.

The poll found that 49 per cent of voters on Tuesday thought that Mr Biden won legitimately, while 49 per cent did not. In Iowa, just 29 per cent thought that the election result was legitimate.

This discrepancy could be explained by the number of independents voting here - see previous post - or by the fact that New HAM (EST)pshire Republicans are generally less conservative than those in Iowa.

The claim that Mr Biden “stole” the 2020 election has become a core cAM (EST)paign message of Donald Trump and his supporters in this race.

14:03AM (EST)

Most New HAM (EST)pshire polls have closed

Most of the polls have now closed across New HAM (EST)pshire. A handful will remain open until 8PM (EST) ET (1AM (EST) GMT).

14:02AM (EST)

Record number of independent voters in New HAM (EST)pshire, finds exit poll

Almost half of voters who cast a ballot in the Republican primary today were independent, an exit poll has shown, in a possible boost for Nikki Haley.

The poll, conducted by ABC News, found that 47 per cent of voters were unaffiliated, meaning they have not registered as supporters of either the Republicans or Democrats.

Under the rules of the New HAM (EST)pshire primary, independent voters are eligible to cast a ballot in either the Democratic or Republican primary contests and polls have previously shown that independents in the state skew towards Ms Haley.

Republican members, meanwhile, are more likely to support Donald Trump. The previous record proportion of independent voters in a Republican primary here was 45 per cent in 2012.

13:41PM (EST)

What time can we expect results tonight?

Typically, most polls in New HAM (EST)pshire close at 7PM (EST) (ET) on election night. There are a handful, about 15 or 20 towns, that will close at 8PM (EST).

That’s because they’re mostly commuter towns for Boston and want to give residents time to get home from work, according to Jim Merrill, New HAM (EST)pshire-based strategist.

We might start seeing results in Manchester, the state’s largest city, coming by 7.30PM (EST).

”That’s going to give you an early indicator about where things are going,” said Mr Merrill. 

“I would say by 9PM (EST) you’re going to know where this race sits,” he added.

If the numbers are close, then we might be in for a little bit of a longer night.

The results in the Democratic primary might take much longer, because of a write-in effort for Joe Biden, who is not appearing on the ballot.

However, New HAM (EST)pshire’s election officials are not going to let the delay on the Democratic side slow up the reporting of the Republican primary results.

13:32PM (EST)

Trump: We are doing 'really well' in New HAM (EST)pshire

Donald Trump has hinted he is expecting a strong result in New HAM (EST)pshire, despite the fact that non-Republicans have a say in tonight’s primary.

The former president wrote on his Truth Social platform: “So ridiculous that Democrats and independents are allowed to vote in the Republican primary, especially since Crooked Joe Biden has abandoned New HAM (EST)pshire – but word is we are doing really well!!!”

13:18PM (EST)

Trump 'looking' at Scott as potential running mate

Donald Trump has suggested he could pick former rival Tim Scott as his running mate if he wins the Republican primary.

Asked on “The Howie Carr Show” if the South Carolina senator was a frontrunner to join a 2024 ticket, he answered: “He’s a guy that I look at”.

Mr Scott is one of a number of former Republican primary candidates cAM (EST)paigning for Mr Trump in New HAM (EST)pshire, alongside Vivek RAM (EST)aswAM (EST)y and Doug Burgum.

13:06PM (EST)

'We're going to win,' says Eric Trump

The Trump cAM (EST)paign is already declaring victory in New HAM (EST)pshire, with Eric Trump telling the BBC: “We’re going to win.”

Polls released yesterday show Nikki Haley, who insists she will not drop if she comes second tonight, is trailing Donald Trump in the state by at least 20 points.

5:41PM (EST)

Half of primary voters think Biden stole election

Nearly half (49 per cent) of voters in New HAM (EST)pshire’s Republican primary do not believe Joe Biden legitimately won the 2020 presidential election, according to an exit poll.

The preliminary data, from Edison Research, shows a similar proportion (50 per cent) think Donald Trump would still be fit for the presidency if he is convicted of a crime.

Compared to the 2016 primary, voters this time are more moderate or liberal and are more likely to think of themselves as Democrats (8 per cent to 3 per cent).

They are less likely to have a college degree (49 per cent to 53 per cent) or think of themselves as evangelical or born-again Christians (19 per cent to 23 per cent).

5:30PM (EST)

Biden: Trump is 'hell-bent' on abortion restrictions

Joe Biden claims Donald Trump is “hell-bent” on bringing in abortion restrictions, intensifying his attacks on the man who looks increasingly likely to be his election rival.

Mr Trump is the “person most responsible” for the Supreme Court’s overturning of a national right to abortion, the US President tells a rally in Virginia.

However, Mr Trump has avoided striking a hardline stance on abortion, blAM (EST)ing restrictions brought in by Republican politicians for losses in the 2022 midterms.

He told a town hall event in Iowa this month that he supported terminations when a woman had been raped and stressed the need to “win elections”.

5:14PM (EST)

Welcome

Hello and welcome to our live coverage of the New HAM (EST)pshire primaries, if you’re just joining us. Benedict Smith here. There are now just under three hours before the final polls close, with projected results to come in soon afterwards.

4:56PM (EST)

Johnny Marr hits out at Trump for playing The Smiths

Johnny Marr has hit out at Donald Trump for playing The Smiths at his rallies.

The guitarist reacted to a video of the Mancunian rock band’s hit Please, Please, Please Let Me Get What I Want being played at a Trump rally in Rapid City, South Dakota in August.

“Ahh…right…OK,” Mr Marr wrote on X, formerly Twitter. “I never in a million years would’ve thought this could come to pass. Consider this s--t shut right down right now.”

4:37PM (EST)

In pictures: Nikki Haley

 

Nikki Haley is flanked by New HAM (EST)pshire governor Chris Sununu on a visit to a polling station in the town of HAM (EST)pton CREDIT: Joe Raedle

 

Ms Haley shares a joke with supporter Michelle Driscoll in Bedford CREDIT: Sue Dorfman

4:12PM (EST)

Tim Scott: Trump set for 'big win'

Donald Trump will achieve a “big win” in New HAM (EST)pshire, his ally Tim Scott has said.

Mr Scott, who pulled out of the race for the Republican nomination in November, made the remarks to Trump supporters in Raymond, New HAM (EST)pshire.

“Donald Trump is about the everyday AM (EST)erican, who needs to believe in their future,” he said.

“Donald Trump makes that happen and I support Donald Trump because I love AM (EST)erica.”

3:52PM (EST)

Canada preparing for Trump presidency, says Trudeau

Canada is preparing for a second Donald Trump presidency, Justin Trudeau has said.

The Canadian prime minister told his cabinet at a meeting on Tuesday that Mr Trump “represents uncertainty”.

“We don’t know exactly what he is going to do,” he said.

“We made it through the challenges represented by the Trump administration seven years ago, for four years, where we put forward the fact that Canada and the US do best when we do it together.”

3:26PM (EST)

Biden the worst president in AM (EST)erican history, says Trump

Joe Biden is the worst president in AM (EST)erican history, Donald Trump has said.

“They’re going to all vote for me again,” he said, referencing crowds that gathered at a polling station in Londonderry, New HAM (EST)pshire.

 

Donald Trump speaks to reporters at Londonderry High School in Londonderry, New HAM (EST)pshire CREDIT: Chip Somodevilla

He added: “I think that Biden is the worst president in the history of this country. But we’re gonna all come back. They’re all coming back. And I think you see that here.

“There has never been a movement like this – Make AM (EST)erica Great Again – in the history of our country.”

3:04PM (EST)

In pictures: Trump on the cAM (EST)paign trail

 

Donald Trump greets supporters at a rally in Londonderry, New HAM (EST)pshire CREDIT: Matt Rourke

 

Mr Trump's supporters were out in force to greet him CREDIT: Matt Rourke

2:48PM (EST)

Watch: You've got a good-looking mum, Trump tells supporter

Donald Trump told a young supporter “you’ve got a good-looking mum” at a meet and greet on the cAM (EST)paign trail.

After taking a selfie with the man, the former president asked if the woman he was with was a relative.

Watch the interaction from 1.55 onwards below.

2:30PM (EST)

Haley set for 'big loss', Trump predicts

Donald Trump has predicted a “big loss” for Nikki Haley in the New HAM (EST)pshire primary.

The former president said his rival was not a threat to his cAM (EST)paign.

“I don’t care if she stays in,” he said. “Let her do whatever she wants. It doesn’t matter.”

Mr Trump declined to say if he had considered Ron DeSantis as his running mate.

2:20PM (EST)

Watch: Decisive Trump win coming, says RAM (EST)aswAM (EST)y

2:04PM (EST)

Poll: Three in five UK voters worried about Trump presidency

Three in five UK voters are worried about Donald Trump winning a second term in the White House, a new poll shows.

The research by Savanta Comres found that 59 per cent of the British public think a Trump victory in November’s election would be a “negative” outcome, with just 8 per cent reporting that they think a Trump win would be “very positive”.

Three quarters of the public said Mr Trump was “irresponsible”, while more than two thirds think he is “dishonest”.

British voters also reserved some scepticism for Joe Biden, with just 20 per cent describing him as “inspiring”.

1:58PM (EST)

Who is Ryan Binkley?

Ryan Binkley is an investment banking CEO who almost no one has heard of.

He is a 56-year-old pastor and businessman from Texas who remains in the race for the Republican nomination but has never been invited to any of the televised debates.

So who is Ryan Binkley?

Read the full interview by US Editor Tony Diver here.

1:28PM (EST)

Turnout in New HAM (EST)pshire expected to be far higher than Iowa

The turnout in New HAM (EST)pshire’s Republican primary is expected to be far higher than in the Iowa caucuses.

David M. Scanlan, the state’s secretary of state, said on Friday that 322,000 Republicans are expected to vote in New HAM (EST)pshire, representing 23 per cent of the state’s population of 1.4million.

In Iowa, just 110,000 Republicans voted. That equates to just 3.7 per cent of state’s three million people.

1:08PM (EST)

Graphic: How Iowa and New HAM (EST)pshire compare

This is how the electorate in New HAM (EST)pshire compares with Iowa, where Donald Trump won a resounding week in the caucus on January 15.

7:52PM (EST)

Poll: 77pc of registered Republicans back Trump

Donald Trump has the backing of 77 per cent of registered Republicans in New HAM (EST)pshire, the NBC News, The Boston Globe and Suffolk University poll suggests.

Just 22 per cent of registered Republicans back Nikki Haley, with her support swelling to 38 per cent and Mr Trump’s falling to 60 per cent when independents, who can also vote in the primary, are included.

The poll of 500 likely primary voters was conducted on Sunday and Monday.

7:44PM (EST)

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7:29PM (EST)

Why undeclared voters could decide New HAM (EST)pshire

The biggest voting bloc in New HAM (EST)pshire is unaffiliated voters, meaning they haven’t declared for any political party.

They make up 39 per cent of the state’s electorate and many intend to vote in the Republican primary since there is no real contest on the Democratic side.

One such undeclared is Claire Gruenfelder, a British expat from Sunbury-on-ThAM (EST)es, Surrey, who got her US citizenship just two weeks ago. A human resources director at New England College in the town of Henniker, Ms Gruenfelder has been living in the area for more than two decades.

She told me she is thinking of casting her first vote in a US election for Nikki Haley.

“I like that Nikki is a woman first and foremost,” she said. Ms Gruenfelder was impressed by the former UN AM (EST)bassador’s grasp of a broad range of issues.

“I asked her a question about homelessness and that’s a very localised issue, but it’s an issue that is also nationwide,” she said.

“I was pretty impressed with her knowledge and understanding of all the different issues that go into homelessness.”

She is “not a fan” of Donald Trump. “I don’t like the way he treats people,” she said.

7:15PM (EST)

Democrats discover they can't vote Haley

A number of New HAM (EST)pshire Democrats have failed in their attempts to vote for Nikki Haley.

No fewer than 3,542 switched their registered support to the Republicans and 408 switched to undeclared, enabling a total of 3,950 former Democrats to vote in today’s GOP primary.

But Donna Gaudette, a registered Democrat, failed to switch before the October deadline and therefore could not vote for Ms Haley as she had intended.

Jeanne Auger, another party member, told the Washington Post she planned to write Ms Haley’s nAM (EST)e on her Democrat ballot even though it will not count.

6:56PM (EST)

Democrat voters bemoan Biden's age

Democrats voting in their party’s New HAM (EST)pshire primaries have bemoaned Joe Biden’s age.

Betsey Davis, 81, who is the sAM (EST)e age as Mr Biden, said: “I think he’s too old.

“He may be a nice man but nice doesn’t really count in politics.”

Theresa Arangio, who voted for long-shot candidate Dean Phillips, added: “President Biden, I really think he’s done a great job. I really like him. But, you know, the age is a factor.”

Mr Biden, 81, is already the most elderly AM (EST)erican president in history and is four years older than his nearest challenger, Ronald Reagan, who was 77 when he left the White House in 1989.

6:42PM (EST)

Trump cAM (EST)paign believes solid blue Virginia is 'in play'

Donald Trump’s cAM (EST)paign believes Virginia is “in play” and could swing in November’s presidential election.

It would be a major shift for the southern state, which has been solid Democrat territory since Barack ObAM (EST)a first ran for president in 2008.

The cAM (EST)paign rhetoric explains Joe Biden’s decision to hold a rally on abortion rights in the state later on Tuesday.

Polls have consistently shown Mr Biden leading Donald Trump in the state by at least 10 points, suggesting the state will stay Democrat.

6:38PM (EST)

Biden to hold rally in Virginia

Joe Biden is holding a rally in Virginia later on Tuesday alongside vice-president KAM (EST)ala Harris.

The pair are expected to speak on abortion, a key dividing line between the Democrats and Republicans, at George Mason University in Manassas at 4.30PM (EST) EST (9.30PM (EST) GMT).

Mr Biden is not on the Democratic primary ballot in New HAM (EST)pshire because of a dispute between the national and state parties.

But he can still be “written in” by voters who fill his nAM (EST)e in on the ballot.

The Democrat results are expected to take longer than the Republican outcomes because of these write-ins.

6:30PM (EST)

Nikki Haley can avoid being knocked out in New HAM (EST)pshire

As New HAM (EST)pshire heads to the polls to vote for its preferred Republican presidential candidate, all eyes are on Nikki Haley, writes US Editor Tony Diver.

After the surprise withdrawal of Ron DeSantis on Sunday, the former South Carolina governor is now all that stands between Donald Trump and the GOP nomination.

In fiercely independent New HAM (EST)pshire, where undeclared voters are also permitted to vote in the Republican primary, Ms Haley’s cAM (EST)paign has become a rallying point for the so-called “Never Trumpers” who will stop at nothing to stop the former president’s re-election.

There is a possibility that she will win in New HAM (EST)pshire, a relatively liberal state where many voters are attracted to her orthodox Republican message.

Read the full story here

6:06PM (EST)

Analysis: How the Haley cAM (EST)paign plans to win

Nikki Haley’s cAM (EST)paign has said she is “not going anywhere” after New HAM (EST)pshire, as it outlined what it believes is a path to the Republican nomination.

In a memo released just now, Ms Haley’s cAM (EST)paign manager Betsy Ankney laid out how Ms Haley could still secure the nomination by winning over independent voters in other states where they are eligible to vote in the GOP primary.

“We’ve heard multiple members of the press say New HAM (EST)pshire is ‘the best it’s going to get’ for Nikki due to independents and unaffiliated voters being able to vote in the Republican primary,” she said, adding: “The reality is that the path through Super Tuesday includes more states than not that have this dynAM (EST)ic.”

“Eleven of the 16 Super Tuesday states have open or semi-open primaries. Of the 874 delegates available on Super Tuesday, roughly two thirds are in states with open or semi-open primaries.

“Those include Virginia, Texas, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, and Vermont, all with favourable demographics.”

The memo gives an insight into how her cAM (EST)paign is trying to win this contest – by appealing to Donald Trump’s detractors and putting her energy into independent voters to overcome his popularity AM (EST)ong Republicans.

The signoff, “see y’all in South Carolina” suggests she has no intention of withdrawing, even if she loses here by the double-digit margin that the polls predict. 

5:52PM (EST)

Likely victory means end of primaries 'hours away', says Trump cAM (EST)paign

The Trump cAM (EST)paign has said its forecasted victory in New HAM (EST)pshire means that the end of the Republican primaries is “just hours away”.

“New HAM (EST)pshire voting has begun,” read an email to his supporters asking for donation. “We’re just HOURS away from ENDING the primary ONCE AND FOR ALL!

“But while that’s happening, the Witch Hunt against me is moving full steAM (EST) ahead.

“They raided my house. They TOOK MY MUGSHOT. They’ve committed WITCH HUNTS AND HOAXES that have never been seen before in AM (EST)ERICAN HISTORY.

“They never thought we’d make it this far, but every victory moving forward depends on what you do right now.”

5:42PM (EST)

Haley: I AM (EST) not pulling out if I lose New HAM (EST)pshire

Nikki Haley has repeated her vow to not pull out of the race to become the Republican presidential candidate if she loses in New HAM (EST)pshire.

“We’re going to South Carolina,” she said on Tuesday. “This has always been a marathon. It’s never been a sprint.”

She added: “I didn’t get here because of luck. I got here because I outworked and outsmarted all the rest of those fellas. So I’m running against Donald Trump and I’m not going to talk about an obituary.

“It’s the political elite that are uniting around President Trump. The political class has gotten us into this mess. We need a normal, real person to get us out of it.”

5:22PM (EST)

New HAM (EST)pshire poll tracker

5:13PM (EST)

Who is Nikki Haley?

Born to immigrant parents from India’s Punjab region,who moved to the United States in the 1960s, Nikki Haley has frequently claimed “coming to AM (EST)erica was the best decision they ever made”.

After attending Clemson University, where she met her husband Michael Haley, she worked as an accounting supervisor for a recycling company before returning to the fAM (EST)ily fashion business.

In 2004, she decided to run for a seat in the South Carolina House of Representatives and she was elected state governor in 2011.

She served under Donald Trump as the US AM (EST)bassador to the United Nations between 2017 and 2018.

She has two children, 1998-born Rena and 2001-born Nalin.

Read the full profile here.

5:04PM (EST)

Trump does not tell me what to do, insists Haley

Nikki Haley has hit back at Donald Trump’s cAM (EST)paign for suggesting she should drop out of the race for the Republican nomination if she loses in New HAM (EST)pshire.

“I don’t do what he tells me to do,” she said as she visited the town of HAM (EST)pton.

“I’ve never done what he tells me to do.”

4:44PM (EST)

Watch: Haley greets voters at polling stations

Nikki Haley has greeted Republican voters at a polling station in HAM (EST)pton, New HAM (EST)pshire, alongside Chris Sununu, the state governor.

4:35PM (EST)

Trump extends poll lead over Haley

Donald Trump has extended his lead over Nikki Haley in New HAM (EST)pshire, a new poll has suggested.

NBC News, The Boston Globe and Suffolk University put the former president on 60 per cent, 22 points ahead of Ms Haley on 38 per cent and a three point gain on previous polling.

The poll of 500 likely primary voters was conducted on Sunday and Monday.

4:17PM (EST)

Trump 'declining' with age like Biden, says Nikki Haley

Donald Trump is declining with age just like Joe Biden, Nikki Haley has said.

The former South Carolina governor said Mr Trump had previously confused her for Nancy Pelosi. the former Congress speaker, and mistakenly claimed he ran against Barack ObAM (EST)a when he won the 2016 election.

“When you have two 80-year-olds running for president, you are going to see decline,” she told the New HAM (EST)pshire Today radio station. “It’s natural. It’s what happens.”

Ms Haley is attempting to beat Mr Trump, 77, in Tuesday’s New HAM (EST)pshire primary and overturn her 22-point poll deficit in the state.

She has vowed to not drop out if she loses but defeat would all but sink her cAM (EST)paign for the Republican nomination.

Ron DeSantis’s withdrawal from the race on Sunday left her as the only remaining challenger to Mr Trump within the party ahead of November’s presidential election.

4:01PM (EST)

Watch: Nikki Haley tells voters to 'grab five friends'

Nikki Haley has urged her supporters to “grab five friends” and take them to the polls.

“I promise you this: if you will join with us in this movement, if you will join with us on Tuesday, if you will bring five friends with you to the polls, I will spend everyday proving to you that you made the right decision,” she said in a cAM (EST)paign video.

3:53PM (EST)

Listen: Fake Biden 'robocall' urges Democrats to skip New HAM (EST)pshire primary

A robocall mimicking Joe Biden urged Democrat voters to skip the New HAM (EST)pshire primary election in an attempt to disrupt Tuesday’s poll.

The call, suspected to have been artificially generated, told recipients “save your vote” for November’s presidential election.

“Voting this Tuesday only enables the Republicans in their quest to elect Donald Trump again,” said the voice mimicking the US president, adding: “Your vote makes a difference in November, not this Tuesday.”

It was unclear who created the message but the calls appeared to come from the personal mobile phone number of Kathy Sullivan, a former state Democratic chairwoman who runs a pro-Biden political group in New HAM (EST)pshire.

Listen to the robocall and read the full story here

3:46PM (EST)

Haley cAM (EST)paign focusing on 'incremental gains'

Nikki Haley’s cAM (EST)paign has been making the argument that Donald Trump can be denied the Republican nomination through “incremental gains”.

“This is a building gAM (EST)e for us,” Ms Haley said on Monday. “This has always been that. We feel very good about it.”

Mr Trump has a strong polling lead over her both nationwide and in New HAM (EST)pshire.

At a weekend event hosted by Bloomberg, Betsy Ankney, Ms Haley’s cAM (EST)paign manager, said: “Beating Donald Trump is not easy.

“He is a juggernaut. But how do you eat an elephant? One bite at a time.”

She added: “We have to continue to show incremental growth and progress. We are the last man – woman – standing against him.”

3:39PM (EST)

Trump joined at rally by RAM (EST)aswAM (EST)y, Scott and Burgum

Donald Trump was joined on stage at a New HAM (EST)pshire rally by three former rivals on Monday night who are now his allies.

Vivek RAM (EST)aswAM (EST)y, Tim Scott and Doug Burgum all previously opposed him in the race for the Republican nomination.

But they joined him on stage at the rally in Laconia, a small town in the state.

Mr Trump said: “Tomorrow we’re going to win New HAM (EST)pshire and then we’re going to defeat crooked Joe Biden and we are going to make AM (EST)erica great again.” 

 

3:35PM (EST)

Haley: If I lose I will not drop out

Nikki Haley has said she will not drop out of the race to become the GOP nominee if she loses to Donald Trump in New HAM (EST)pshire.

She told Fox News’s Fox & Friends progrAM (EST)me on Monday that it was not reasonable for the Republican presidential candidate to be determined after just two states: Iowa and New HAM (EST)pshire.

“We’ve had 56,000 people vote for Donald Trump and you’re going to say that’s what the country wants?” Haley said, referring to the votes won by the former president in Iowa on January 15.

“That’s not what the country wants.”

3:28PM (EST)

Why Trump’s path to victory is becoming clearer by the day

Donald Trump has a clear lead over Nikki Haley in the next Republican primary as pressure builds on his only remaining challenger, reports Rozina Sabur, Deputy US Editor.

The former president could be all but crowned the party’s nominee after Tuesday’s vote in New HAM (EST)pshire, where the latest poll shows him 18 points ahead.

The gap is likely to be even wider as the Washington Post poll was taken before Ron DeSantis pulled out of the race. Many of his supporters will turn to Mr Trump, analysts suggest.

A second poll by CNN showed Mr Trump has the support of half of likely voters in the state, while Ms Haley has the support of 34 per cent.

Read the full article here

3:25PM (EST)

In pictures: First votes at Dixville Notch

Nikki Haley beat Donald Trump to win all six votes in the tiny first town to vote in the New HAM (EST)pshire primary.

The resort town of Dixville Notch, a small township with a population of just 11, has a tradition dating back to 1960 of being the first in the county to vote.

Four Republicans and two undeclared voters backed the former South Carolina governor for the GOP nomination shortly after midnight on Tuesday.

Ron DeSantis’s withdrawal from the race on Sunday means Ms Haley is the only candidate left with a realistic chance of beating Mr Trump.

New HAM (EST)pshire is a relatively liberal state and Ms Haley is polling at around 36 per cent, almost double the 19 per cent vote share she won in the Iowa caucuses last week.

A strong victory for Mr Trump, who is polling at 55 per cent, would sink Ms Haley’s cAM (EST)paign and all but secure his place as the Republican candidate in November’s presidential election.

 

Cory Pesaturo plays the national anthem on an accordion ahead of the votes in Dixville Notch \

CREDIT: Faith Ninivaggi

A voter casts his ballot as Lucy the doodle dog looks on CREDIT: Faith Ninivaggi

3:22PM (EST)

When do the polls close?

Most polls in New HAM (EST)pshire opened between 6AM (EST) and 8AM (EST) EST (11AM (EST) and 1PM (EST) GMT).

The final votes will be cast by 8PM (EST) EST (1AM (EST) GMT).

In 2020, the results started to come through shortly after the first polls closed.

The expected winner could be declared long before then, however, if their lead in the early count is sufficiently strong.

3:21PM (EST)

Welcome to the live blog

Welcome to The Telegraph’s live coverage of the New HAM (EST)pshire primary.

 

ATTACHMENT “C” (2) – FROM FOX

 

Nikki Haley thanked New Hampshire after losing the state’s GOP primary to Donald Trump. Despite losing Iowa and New Hampshire, she has vowed to yield the 2024 Republican nomination to Trump.

Haley did perform better in Tuesday's New Hampshire primary than she had in the Iowa caucuses a week earlier, where she finished third, well behind Trump and only slightly down from Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who has since shuttered his campaign.

Haley now heads to her home state of South Carolina for a Wednesday evening rally. The event serves as both a welcome-home gathering and an opener for her campaign in the first-in-the-South GOP voting state, which has historically been influential in determining the party's nominee. Since 1980, only one winner of South Carolina's Republican balloting has lost the nomination.

Posted by Bradford Betz

4:30 PM 4:30 PM

'Jarring' New Hampshire results should be 'warning sign' for Trump, says Thiessen

Former President Trump on Tuesday secured a double-digit victory in the New Hampshire primary with 54.55% of the vote compared to runner-up Nikki Haley's 43.2%. Fox News contributor Marc Thiessen explained Wednesday on "FOX & Friends" that the margin is "jarring" and represents a warning sign for Trump ahead of a possible rematch with President Biden. 

MARC THIESSEN: He's effectively the quasi-Republican incumbent. He never ceded the leadership of the Republican Party. He's offended that anyone challenged him for the Republican nomination. He thinks he should be the nominee. The last time you had a challenge like this to a Republican incumbent was in 1992, when Pat Buchanan challenged George H.W. Bush. He got 38% to Bush's 52%. The New York Times headline was ‘Bush jarred in first primary. President Bush scored a less than impressive victory over Pat Buchanan.' Haley did much better (???) than Buchanan ever did. Why is this not jarring? You just showed the stats.Thirty-five percent of Republicans in the state are not going to vote for Donald Trump. He's bleeding centrists. He needs those Haley voters, and right now, a lot of the Republican Party and independents are saying they're not going to vote for him. So it's a warning sign.

To read more from this interview click here.

Posted by Bradford BetzShare

1 hour(s) ago

Pro-Palestinian protesters dragged out of Biden’s UAW speech, get shouted down by workers

Pro-Palestinian protesters were dragged out of a United Auto Workers convention hall Wednesday as President Biden was addressing the workers.

Midway through his speech, several protesters interrupted shouting pro-Palestinian slogans. Biden carried on with his speech as the protesters were drowned out by the crowd shouting: “U-A-W!”

The president had been picking up an endorsement by the powerful union, as he pushed to shore up the support of blue-collar workers.

Later, Biden’s motorcade encountered more pro-Palestinian protesters yelling for a ceasefire as it approached the White House.

It was the second day in a row that Biden was interrupted by pro-Palestinian protesters. On Tuesday, at least a dozen protesters disrupted an abortion rights rally in Manassas, Virginia as Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris were giving a talk. 

Posted by Bradford BetzShare

3:30 PM

UAW president endorses Biden, claims Trump 'doesn't care about the American worker'

The United Auto Workers endorsed President Biden on Wednesday as the Democrat incumbent battles against former President Donald Trump for support from key labor groups. 

Biden, who notably stood on the UAW picket line in Michigan back in the fall during their strike against Ford, General Motors and Stellantis, was invited to speak to the union on Wednesday."

“Joe Biden bet on the American worker, while Donald Trump blamed the American worker," UAW President Shawn Fain claimed as the group caps its three-day gathering in Washington, D.C., to map out its political priorities.

"We need to know who's going to sit in the most powerful seat in the world and us win as a united working class. So if our endorsements must be earned. Joe Biden has earned it," Fain said. 

This is an excerpt from a report by Fox Business' Danielle Wallace.

Posted by Bradford BetzShare

3:30 PM

Susan Collins not backing Trump in 2024 race

Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine, says she will not endorse Donald Trump even if he were to become the Republican nominee in the 2024 presidential race.

Asked by The Hill whether she would support Trump following his win in New Hampshire Collins said: “I do not at this point.”

Collins said she was pleased former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley was determined to stay in the race, despite her loss in Tuesday’s New Hampshire primary by 11 points.

“I’m glad to hear last night that Nikki Haley is determined to stay in [the race],” Collins said. “I think the more people see of her, particularly since she appears to be the only alternative to Donald Trump right now, the more impressed they will be.”

But the Maine Senator stopped short of formally endorsing Haley.

Haley’s team vowed on Wednesday to continue fighting Trump for the GOP nomination, even with the prospect looming of an embarrassing home-state primary defeat in South Carolina on Feb. 24. 

Posted by Bradford BetzShare

2:30 PM

Sens. Deb Fischer and John Cornyn endorse Trump

GOP Sens. John Cornyn and Deb Fischer endorsed former President Trump on Tuesday night following Trump's win in the New Hampshire primary in his bid to be crowned the Republican presidential nominee. 

"It's time for Republicans to unite around President Donald Trump and make Joe Biden a one-term president," Fischer said in a statement. "These last three years have yielded a crippling border crisis, an inflationary economy that prices the American Dream out of reach for families, and a world in constant turmoil with our enemies on the march. I endorse Donald Trump for president so we can secure our border, get our economy moving again, and keep America safe."

Cornyn said in a statement posted to X, "To beat Biden, Republicans need to unite around a single candidate, and it’s clear that President Trump is Republican voters’ choice."

"Four more years of failed domestic policies like the Biden Border Crisis and record-high inflation, and failed foreign policies that have emboldened our adversaries and made the world a more dangerous place, must be stopped," he said. 

Cornyn and Fischer join more than 15 GOP senators in endorsing Trump, including Sens. JD Vance of Ohio, Marsha Blackburn of Tennessee, Rick Scott of Florida, Josh Hawley and Eric Schmitt of Missouri, Tom Cotton of Arkansas, Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, Tommy Tuberville of Alabama, Marco Rubio of Florida and others. Murkowski? Romney>

This report is an excerpt from an article by Fox News' Jamie Joseph

Posted by Anders HagstromShare

2:30 PM

Trump calls out Nikki Haley after NH primary: ‘Did very poorly’

Fox News’ Bryan Llenas reported on the race for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination after former President Trump’s victory in New Hampshire on Wednesday.

Llenas highlighted comments from Trump blasting former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley for her performance in the contest, saying she did "very poorly."

Haley took home 43% of the vote, compared to Trump's 54%.

Posted by Anders HagstromShare

2:30 PM

Voters  top running mate choices for Trump if elected: 'It has to be someone younger'

Voters in New Hampshire shared who they'd like to see as former President Trump's running mate for the 2024 election.

"It has to be someone younger, a lot younger," Kate from Maine told Fox News. "He’s old. [President] Biden’s old. The number two is really important in this election."

Biden, 81, is the oldest sitting president to serve, while Trump, 77, previously held the record.

"It really doesn’t matter to me, but as long as it's somebody who supports the main person, then that's most important," Irene from Massachusetts said of Trump's potential running mate. 

But Michael, from Arkansas, said the future president needs "the Lord God" at his side.

"Our president is gonna need our Lord God by him," Michael said. "He's gonna have another battle on his hands trying to fix our country. It's so far gone."

This report is an excerpt from an article by Fox News' Megan Myers and Ramiro Vargas

Posted by Anders HagstromShare

1:30 PM

Voters give real-time reactions to Trump, Haley speeches

Pollster Lee Carter Joined Fox News to describe how voters responded to post-primary speeches by Nikki Haley and Donald Trump on Wednesday.

Trump carried the New Hampshire primary by a sizeable margin Tuesday night, securing 54% of the vote to Haley's 43%. Nevertheless, Haley has vowed to stay in the race through the upcoming South Carolina primary.

Posted by Anders Hagstrom

1:30 PM

Nikki Haley showed 'stunningly bad judgment' in speech after New Hampshire loss, says Steve Hilton

"The Next Revolution" host Steve Hilton called out Nikki Haley Tuesday night for her response to former President Trump's primary win in New Hampshire and her decision to use her post-race speech to attack the GOP frontrunner "more aggressively" than ever before.

"She wants to go to South Carolina, a state where she's miles behind Donald Trump, currently 20, 30, 40 points behind Donald Trump. She needs to persuade Republicans who currently support Trump to switch to her. So what did she do in that speech tonight? Attack Donald Trump more aggressively than she's ever done before? It is stunningly bad judgment. It makes me think, actually, she knows she's going to lose," Hilton said.

Fox News projected Trump would win the Granite State primary just a few minutes after the final polls closed in New Hampshire.

The win, however, did not land a knockout blow in the Republican presidential race after Haley vowed to keep on fighting.

"You’ve all heard the chatter among the political class. They’re falling all over themselves saying this race is over. Well, I have news for all of them: New Hampshire is first in the nation. It is not last in the nation. This race is far from over," Haley stressed as she spoke to supporters after the contest was quickly called for Trump.

For Haley, a former two-term South Carolina governor who served as U.N. ambassador in the Trump administration, New Hampshire was seen as her best and possibly last chance to slow down or derail the former president's march towards renomination.

Posted by Anders HagstromShare

12:30 PM

RNC chair McDaniel tells Fox News 'we need to unite' around Trump

Republican National Committee Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel has stayed neutral since the very start of the 2024 GOP presidential nomination race.

While McDaniel and the national party committee are still not taking sides in the 2024 battle between former President Trump and former U.N. ambassador and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, the RNC chairwoman appears to be sending a signal.

"I’m looking at the math and the path going forward, and I don’t see it for Nikki Haley," McDaniel told anchors Bret Baier and Martha MacCallum in a Fox News Channel interview late on Tuesday night.

"I think she’s run a great campaign, but I do think there is a message that’s coming out from the voters, which is very clear," McDaniel emphasized.

She urged that "we need to unite around our eventual nominee, which is going to be Donald Trump, and we need to make sure we beat Joe Biden."

Posted by Anders HagstromShare

12:30 PM

People aren't enthusiastic about Joe Biden: Rep. Michael Waltz

Rep. Michael Waltz, R-Fla., joined Fox News to discuss former President Trump's New Hampshire primary victory on Wednesday, as well as President Biden's reelection chances.

Waltz argued that independent and even Democratic voters are not enthusiastic about voting for Biden in the upcoming election. Polls have shown that an overwhelming majority of Independents and even Democrats believe Biden is too old to effectively serve a second term.

Waltz also discussed Biden's alleged failures overseas and demanded that the Biden administration offer a briefing on the recent death of two U.S. Navy SEALs.

Posted by Anders HagstromShare

12:30 PM

Nikki Haley has become the candidate for moderates and anti-Trump voters: Josh Kraushaar

Former Trump senior adviser Kellyanne Conway, Fox News Radio political analyst Josh Kraushaar, and Fox News senior political analyst Juan Williams provided analysis of the New Hampshire primary results on Wednesday.

Kraushaar argues Haley's coalition of moderate and anti-Trump voters won't be enough to get her a victory in more conservative states like South Carolina.

Posted by Anders HagstromShare

11:30 AM

Biden challenger Dean Phillips attends New Hampshire Trump rally, rips divisive political culture

Democratic presidential candidate Dean Phillips, who secured around 20% of the vote in the New Hampshire primary, described his experience attending a Trump rally in the Granite State.

When "Fox & Friends" co-host Steve Doocy asked him about his decision to connect with Trump supporters, Rep. Phillips highlighted the importance of bipartisanship in the 2024 election, noting it was his "responsibility" to reach out to voters who might be voting for another candidate. 

"That's my responsibility, and I'm sick of this political culture that only rewards dividers," Phillips, D-Minn., said Wednesday. 

"I flipped a district that had been Republican for 60 years in 2018. I didn't do so by just pandering to Democrats. I invited independents and Republicans. I'm the second most bipartisan member of Congress for a reason."

"I have great friendships with both sides of the aisle. Any leader of the free world should show up and the other side's rally and say hello and greet people, and I got to tell you, I spoke with 50," he continued. 

"They were the most hospitable, thoughtful, kind people I've interacted with in a long time. Yesterday at the polls, I said hello to everybody holding signs. Biden signs, Williamson signs, my signs. Trump signs, Haley signs. People were so decent and I would call it anger-tainment. Anger-tainment would have us believe we are so much more divided than we are."

Biden won the New Hampshire primary election decisively against Phillips and Marianne Williamson on Tuesday night. Biden secured more than 50% of the vote in a write-in campaign since his name did not appear on the ballot.

This report is an excerpt from an article by Fox News' Bailee Hill

Posted by Anders HagstromShare

11:30 AM

Haley allies admit she has 'steeper road ahead' facing Trump in South Carolina

Americans for Prosperity Action, the political wing of the influential and deep-pocketed fiscally conservative network founded by the billionaire Koch Brothers, admitted that GOP presidential candidate Nikki Haley has a "steeper road ahead" facing former President Trump in South Carolina. 

Reacting after Trump clinched his second straight victory in the New Hampshire primaries Tuesday, Americans for Prosperity Action Senior Advisor Emily Seidel said the results in New Hampshire "show that Nikki Haley is closing the gap and that she is the clear alternative for voters who are ready to close the book on the toxic Biden-Trump political era."

"This is still an uphill battle. Now all eyes turn to South Carolina, where she has a steeper road ahead," Seidel said in a statement obtained by Fox News Digital. "For the past several months, we’ve been engaged in races for the U.S. House, U.S. Senate, and presidential levels to prevent a scenario where one party progressive rule comes to Washington, D.C. at a time when our country can least afford it. If Republicans nominate Donald Trump, we risk a repeat of the past three elections and the very real threat of full progressive control increases dramatically."

Seidal went on to say of Trump, "This is why Joe Biden and the Democrats want him to be the nominee. The stakes for our country simply couldn’t be higher."

"Our teams will continue talking to South Carolina voters in support of Nikki Haley. We are laser focused on electing the candidates who can be the firewall preventing one party progressive rule of the federal government. We have three ways to win the Senate, the House, and the presidential primary. Through our multi-pronged effort we are prepared to get this done. I'm proud of our activists' ongoing efforts. Despite challenging conditions, their support shows that AFP Action consistently takes principled and tough action when our country needs it most." 

This is an excerpt from a report by Fox News' Danielle Wallace

Posted by Anders HagstromShare

11:30 AM

Trump and Biden agree on one thing about the Republican primary after New Hampshire

Former President Donald Trump and President Biden don't agree on much — but both say their election rematch is set after convincing wins in New Hampshire's first-in-the-nation primary.

Trump, who faces one remaining primary challenger in former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, claimed an 11-point victory in the Granite State on Tuesday night. In an exclusive interview with Fox News Digital, Trump said he was "very honored by the result" and is "looking forward to going against the worst president in the history of our country."

Biden said Tuesday the "stakes could not be higher" after winning the New Hampshire primary as a write-in candidate, trouncing Rep. Dean Phillips, D-Minn., who launched a long-shot bid against the incumbent president by arguing Biden is too old and unpopular to win in November.

"It is now clear that Donald Trump will be the Republican nominee," Biden declared in a statement. "And my message to the country is the stakes could not be higher. Our Democracy. Our personal freedoms — from the right to choose to the right to vote. Our economy — which has seen the strongest recovery in the world since COVID. All are at stake."

This report is an excerpt from an article by Fox News' Chris Pandolfo

Posted by Anders HagstromShare

10:30 AM

Sen. Tim Scott urges Republicans to support Trump: 'This race is already over'

Former presidential candidate Sen. Tim Scott, R-S.C., joined 'Fox & Friends' to explain why he threw his support behind former President Trump instead of Nikki Haley on Wednesday.

Scott argued that Trump has already proven he is capable of lowering inflation and addressing illegal immigration, two top issues for Republicans and Americans in general.

He went on to say that the outcome of the GOP primary is a foregon conclusion with Trump's sizeable lead over Haley.

Posted by Anders HagstromShare

10:30 AM

Gov. Sununu slams political ‘elitists’ rallying behind ‘weakest candidate’ Trump

New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu joined Fox News on Wednesday and expressed his optimism over Nikki Haley’s performance in the state's primary.

While Haley lost to former President Trump, she secured a over 43% of the vote, compared to Trump's 54%. Her surge in the polls came thanks to Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis' withdrawal from the race on Sunday.

Sununu argued that Haley is the best choice for Republicans looking to defeat President Biden in the general election. He argued that Trump's candidacy is a product of "political elitests" in the Republican Party.

Posted by Anders Hagstrom

10:30 AM

Record voter turnout led to Trump victory in New Hampshire primary

Fox News projected Trump would win the New Hampshire primary just a few minutes after the final polls closed. The primary saw record turnout despite some predictions that low energy among voters would depress the vote.

Trump told Fox News Digital that he was "very honored" by the support he received from voters, and declared that the Republican Party was "very united" behind his candidacy.

When asked if he felt Haley would suspend her campaign, he said, "I don’t know. She should."

"She should because, otherwise, we have to keep wasting money instead of spending on Biden," Trump said. "If she doesn’t drop out, we have to waste money instead of spending it on Biden, which is our focus."

Haley has nevertheless vowed to continue her campaign through the upcoming South Carolina primary. She served as governor of the state for two terms before joining President Trump's administration as U.S. Ambassador to the U.N.

Fox News' Brooke Singman contributed to this report

Posted by Anders HagstromShare

9:30 AM

Dean Phillips says Democrats need to ‘wake up’ to ‘impending disaster' after NH loss

2024 Democratic presidential candidate Dean Phillips. D-Minn., reacted to his performance in the New Hampshire primary election and discussed his bid for the White House on Wednesday.

Phillips secured just under 20% of the vote in the New Hampshire primary. Biden, whose name did not officially appear on the ballot, secured over 51% of the vote via a write-in campaign.

Phillips argued that most of the country "would rather see a Nikki Haley versus Dean Phillips matchup" than former President Trump versus Biden.

Polls throughout the past 12 months have shown that many Americans would favor younger candidates.

Posted by Anders HagstromShare

9:30 AM

Conservatives blast Biden as 'election denier' after he calls McAuliffe the 'real' governor of VA

President Joe Biden was slammed by conservatives on social media and called an "election denier" after he referred to Terry McAuliffe, who lost the Virginia gubernatorial election to the current GOP governor Glenn Youngkin, as the commonwealth’s "real" governor.

"Hello, Virginia, and the real governor, Terry McAuliffe," Biden told a crowd in Virginia on Tuesday night in an event with VP Kamala Harris discussing abortion access. "My name is Joe Biden. I'm Jill Biden's husband and Kamala's running mate. Kidding aside. Thank you, Kamala, for your leadership protecting reproductive freedom and for so much more that you do."

Biden, who has centered his campaign on criticizing former President Trump's 2020 election denial, was quickly criticized by conservatives for the comment. 

"I was informed that denying election results is the biggest threat to our democracy," conservative influence LibsofTikTok posted on X. "Start the impeachment hearings!"

"Sounds like Biden should be removed from the Virginia ballot," conservative commentator Chris Barron posted on X, referencing Democrat efforts to keep former President Trump off the ballot for "election denial."

Biden is shuttled across the river to promote nine-month, taxpayer-funded elective abortion-on-demand — and tosses in some casual election denialism while he’s at it," Fox News contributor Guy Benson posted on X.

Fox News' Andrew Mark Miller contributed to this report

Posted by Anders HagstromShare

9:30 AM

Immigration was top issue among GOP New Hampshire voters

Fox New contributor and former acting ICE Director Tom Homan joined Fox News on Wednesday to discuss polls showing that immigration was the single most important issue for New Hampshire Republicans headed to the polls on Tuesday.

Homan also discussed the ways he believes President Biden could easily solve the immigration crisis while in office.

Posted by Anders HagstromShare

8:30 AM

Nancy Mace predicts Trump will 'win big' in South Carolina as eight SC leaders endorse his campaign

Rep. Nancy Mace, R-S.C., joined 'Fox & Friends First' to discuss why she believes Trump will win significantly in the South Carolina primary election and the importance of banding together to defeat President Biden.

Mace referenced eight major endorsements Trump has received from South Carolina Republicans, including her own. Senators Lindsey Graham and Tim Scott, both from South Carolina, have also thrown their weight behind Trump.

Posted by Anders HagstromShare

8:30 AM

Nikki Haley vows to stay in presidential race after New Hampshire loss to Trump

Washington Examiner reporter Samantha-Jo Roth joined Fox News on Wednesday morning to discuss Nikki Haley's campaign after Trump won the New Hampshire primary and polls put her behind the former president in South Carolina.

Haley has vowed to stay in the race, saying she is now focused on her "Sweet South Carolina." Haley served as governor of South Carolina for two terms before joining President Trump's administration as U.S. Ambassador to the U.N.

Posted by Anders HagstromShare

7:30 AM

Media urges Biden to stay in basement after New Hampshire primary: Concha

Fox News contributor Joe Concha joined 'Fox & Friends First' to discuss his reaction to the media's coverage of the New Hampshire results and why he doesn't see a path forward for Nikki Haley.

Concha argued that left-leaning media outlets are now hoping Biden will stay out of the spotlight after winning in New Hampshire. Biden made a series of gaffes both leading up to and following his win in the state.

Concha also weighed in on Haley's position, saying he did not see a way for her to beat former President Trump. Trump secured 54% of the vote to Haley's 43%.

Posted by Anders HagstromShare

7:30 AM

Haley lives to fight another day against Trump, but faces 'challenging road' ahead in GOP primary

Donald Trump won again, but the former president didn't land a knockout blow in New Hampshire's Republican presidential primary, as his last remaining major rival in the GOP nomination race vowed to keep on fighting.

"You’ve all heard the chatter among the political class. They’re falling all over themselves saying this race is over. Well, I have news for all of them: New Hampshire is first in the nation. It is not last in the nation. This race is far from over," Nikki Haley stressed, as she spoke to supporters after the New Hampshire race was quickly called for Trump.

The former two-term South Carolina governor who later served as U.N. ambassador in the Trump administration now heads back to her home state, which on Feb. 24 holds the next major contest in the Republican nominating calendar.

A rally Wednesday night in Charleston is the first in a series scheduled over the coming days. And the campaign said they're launching a new $4 million ad blitz in South Carolina this week.

Trump, in an interview with Fox News Digital's Brooke Singman, argued that it was time for Haley to suspend her campaign, so he could begin targeting President Biden in what's expected to be a general election rematch.  

Fox News' Paul Steinhauser contributed to this report

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7:30 AM

Democrats take aim at Trump after New Hampshire victory: 'Same extreme agenda'

Democrats reacted to former President Trump winning the New Hampshire GOP primary election over former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley, calling his supporters the "anti-freedom MAGA movement."

Trump defeated Haley Tuesday night, winning the New Hampshire Republican primary as he vies for the 2024 GOP presidential nomination.

Fox News Decision Desk projected Trump's victory just minutes after the final polls closed in the Granite State.

While some Republicans celebrated Trump's victory, Democrats shared their hot takes on social media, taking aim at Trump's victory.

Biden's campaign manager Julie Chavez Rodriguez released a statement on Trump's win in New Hampshire, saying Tuesday night's "results confirm Donald Trump has all but locked up the GOP nomination, and the election denying, anti-freedom MAGA movement has completed its takeover of the Republican Party."

"Trump is offering Americans the same extreme agenda that has cost Republicans election after election: promising to undermine American democracy, reward the wealthy on the backs of the middle class, and ban abortion nationwide," Chavez Rodriguez said.

"Joe Biden sees things differently. He's fighting to grow our economy for the middle-class, strengthen our democracy, and protect the rights of every single American," she continued. "While we work toward November 2024, one thing is increasingly clear today: Donald Trump is headed straight into a general election matchup where he'll face the only person to have ever beaten him at the ballot box: Joe Biden."

Fox News' Houston Keene contributed to this report

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6:30 AM

Fox News Voter Analysis: Biden easily carries New Hampshire’s unofficial primary

President Biden easily won the New Hampshire Democratic primary , carrying the traditional first-in-the-nation primary by 39 points over Rep. Dean Phillips. Biden’s comfortable win was more notable because his name did not actually appear on the primary ballot, forcing his supporters to write him in as their preference.

The election was technically an "unsanctioned" primary, as it was held despite the Democratic National Committee’s insistence that South Carolina hold the first Democratic primary this year.

New Hampshire Democrats went ahead anyway, following a state law requiring the nominating contest be the first in a given calendar year. As a result, the DNC announced no delegates would be awarded based on the New Hampshire results.

Biden’s team announced in late October he would not participate, meaning he would not be on the ballot and instead be a "write-in" candidate only. Phillips campaigned heavily in the Granite State but was unable to make significant inroads.

The results of the Fox News Voter Analysis, a survey of more than 900 New Hampshire Democratic primary voters, show the contours of a resounding win for the incumbent. At the same time, the data suggest some areas of division within Biden’s coalition.

Biden won every major demographic group by double digits. He was particularly strong among voters over age 65, those with college degrees and women. The race was somewhat closer among men.

Biden won voters over age 45 by 52 points but was noticeably weaker among younger voters.

The president had strong support from across the center and left of the political spectrum, getting a similar  of the vote from political moderates (62%), those who described themselves as "somewhat liberal" (64%) and "very liberal" voters (58%).

Three quarters of primary voters approved of the job Biden is doing as president.

The Fox News Polling Unit contributed to this report.

Posted by Landon MionShare

5:30 AM

Fox News Voter Analysis: Trump tops Haley in New Hampshire

Former President Trump won New Hampshire’s first-in-the-nation primary by 10 points over Nikki Haley. Trump is the first Republican candidate to win competitive elections in the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary since 1976.

Ron DeSantis ended his campaign two days before the primary, effectively making it a head-to-head race between Trump and Haley, who vowed to continue her campaign through the South Carolina primary on Feb. 24.

The results of the Fox News Voter Analysis, a survey of nearly 2,000 New Hampshire Republican primary voters, show the contours of a race that was notably closer than last week’s Iowa caucuses, which Trump won by 30 points.

In New Hampshire, unaffiliated voters – those not registered with a partisan affiliation – can participate in primary elections, and these voters were the main reason the race in the Granite State was tighter than in Iowa. Unaffiliated voters made up slightly less than half of the electorate (47%), and broke for Haley by 26 points.

Just over half of unaffiliated voters (54%) considered themselves Republicans; the remainder generally identified as independents (26%) or Democrats (20%).

Trump easily outpaced Haley among registered Republicans (+42 points).

Haley won political moderates by 24 points, while Trump won self-described "somewhat conservatives" by the same margin (+24 points). He ran up the score among very conservative voters (+68 points).

In the end, much of Haley’s support came from voters outside the GOP mainstream. Just over half of her supporters (52%) backed Joe Biden in the 2020 election, while 32% voted for Trump. The vast majority (90%) of Trump’s backers in the primary voted for him four years ago.

Those who considered themselves part of the Make America Great Again movement went overwhelmingly for Trump (+77 points), while non-MAGA voters backed Haley by 52 points. Both candidates benefited from DeSantis dropping out, as he ran second in Iowa among both MAGA and non-MAGA voters.

The Fox News Polling Unit contributed to this report.

Posted by Landon MionShare

5:30 AM

Conservatives warn Haley after Trump wins New Hampshire primary: 'Drop out or help Democrats'

Reactions quickly started pouring in on social media following former President Trump’s victory over former United Nations ambassador Nikki Haley in the New Hampshire primary, including from the Biden campaign and Trump supporters calling on Haley to drop out.

"Congratulations to President Trump on his decisive victory tonight in America's first-in-the-nation primary!" GOP House Speaker Mike Johnson said in a statement. "Our House Republican leaders and a majority of Republican Senators support his reelection, and Republican voters in Iowa and New Hampshire have strongly backed him at the polls. It's now past time for the Republican Party to unite around President Trump so we can focus on ending the disastrous Biden presidency and growing our majority in Congress."

"If Nikki Haley’s primary goal is to defeat Joe Biden in November, she will drop out tonight and endorse Trump," Federalist co-founder Sean Davis posted on X. "If she continues to stay in a race she cannot win just to attack Trump, then we’ll know she’s fully owned by the left-wing Democrats who are funding her campaign."

"First time any candidate has won the first two primary states since 1976," Eric Trump posted on X.

"Congrats to Donald Trump and the entire team on a decisive victory in New Hampshire!" Ohio GOP Sen. J.D. Vance posted on X. "At this point Haley can either drop out or help the Democrats."

"I want to congratulate my good friend @realdonaldtrump on another resounding win in New Hampshire tonight," the account for former HUD Secretary Ben Carson and his wife Candy posted on X. "This primary is over, and I pray @NikkiHaley will drop out so we can focus our efforts on defeating Biden in November. We have a country to save and the stakes are too high."

In a statement, the Biden presidential campaign said that the results "confirm Donald Trump has all but locked up the GOP nomination, and the election denying, anti-freedom MAGA movement has completed its takeover of the Republican Party."

New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu, a staunch supporter of Haley's, posted on X that her 2nd place finish "turned the narrative of the national media on its head and proved this is indeed a two person race."

Fox News' Andrew Mark Miller contributed to this report.

Posted by Landon MionShare

5:30 AM

Record GOP turnout, calls for Haley to exit race round out top 5 moments from New Hampshire primary

Former President Donald Trump and President Biden secured convincing victories in Tuesday's New Hampshire primaries, both wins evidence that a general election rematch is looking increasingly likely.

Trump's main Republican opponent, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, had hoped to win enough support from moderate voters in the state for a come-from-behind win, as did Rep. Dean Phillips, D-Minn., who continues to make the case that Biden is too old and unpopular to successfully take on Trump.

From record Republican turnout to intra-party criticism, here are the top five moments from the New Hampshire primaries:

1. Haley vows GOP race is "far from over"

Despite her second loss in a row to Trump and polls suggesting the upcoming contests in Nevada and South Carolina, her home state, would produce similar results, Haley vowed to continue campaigning for the Republican nomination.

2. Trump declares Republican Party "very united" around his candidacy

In an exclusive interview with Fox News Digital's Brooke Singman following his victory, Trump said he was "very honored" by the support he received from voters, and declared that the Republican Party was "very united" behind his candidacy.

3. Biden pulls off massive write-in victory after not appearing on ballot

Biden won his party's primary despite failing to file as a candidate in the state last year, but did so with a massive write-in campaign that saw him tallying more than 60% of the overall vote at the time the race was called.

4. More big-name Republicans turn on Haley with calls to drop out of the race

Following Trump's sizable win, more big-name Republicans began calling on Haley to drop out of the race, including Republican National Committee Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel.

5. Record number of voters turn out for the Republican primary

The New Hampshire Republican primary saw record turnout on Tuesday despite some reports that low energy among voters would depress the vote.

With approximately 92% of the vote counted, more than 293,000 ballots had been cast compared to just over 101,000 with approximately 88% of the vote counted in the Democrat primary.

The previous record for a Republican primary in the state was set in 2016 during Trump's first run for the presidency, when around 284,000 cast ballots.

Fox News' Brandon Gillespie contributed to this report.

Posted by Landon MionShare

4:30 AM

Tim Scott sets crowd alive with one-liner after Trump says he ‘must really hate’ Haley

Republican South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott set a New Hampshire crowd alive Tuesday with a one-liner about GOP presidential candidate Nikki Haley.

The moment came as former President Donald Trump celebrated his victory in the Granite State's Republican primary, and said Scott "must really hate" Haley, who served as governor of South Carolina and appointed Scott to the Senate in 2012 to fill a vacancy.

"We do go to South Carolina, where we have done really well, where I've done well. We have a great governor and lieutenant governor, great everything because almost every one of them have endorsed me — Two great senators, which is hard. I mean, did you ever think that she would actually appoint you, Tim?" Trump said as Scott stood behind him on the stage.

Trump noted Scott's recent endorsement of him rather than Haley despite her appointing him to the Senate, and added, "You must really hate her."

The crowd began laughing before Trump added, "No, it’s a shame. It's a shame."

Scott then approached the microphone as Trump said, "Uh-oh!"

"I just love you!" Scott said to more laughter from the crowd!

Fox News' Brandon Gillespie contributed to this report.

Posted by Landon MionShare

3:30 AM

Trump 'honored' by New Hampshire win, says Republican Party is 'very united'

Former President Trump said he is "very honored" by his New Hampshire primary win Tuesday night, telling Fox News Digital that the Republican Party is "very united" behind his candidacy.

Trump won the first-in-the-nation primary Tuesday night, defeating former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley. Trump also won the Iowa caucuses last week.

During an exclusive interview with Fox News Digital shortly after the race was called, Trump said he was honored.

"I’m very honored by the result," Trump said.

Trump also said he is "looking forward to going against the worst president in the history of our country."

New Hampshire – where independent voters who make up roughly 40% of the electorate can vote in either major party's contest and have long played an influential role in the state's storied presidential primary – was considered fertile ground for Haley. And Haley spent plenty of time and resources in the state, securing the influential endorsement of popular Republican Gov. Chris Sununu.

But Trump dominated for a second week in a row, cruising to victory in both critical early voting states.

When asked if he felt Haley would suspend her campaign, he said, "I don’t know. She should."

"She should because, otherwise, we have to keep wasting money instead of spending on Biden," Trump said. "If she doesn’t drop out, we have to waste money instead of spending it on Biden, which is our focus."

Trump, who was joined at a rally Monday night in New Hampshire by his former opponents who then endorsed him, including Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina, entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy and Gov. Doug Burgum of North Dakota, said the party is united.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis suspended his campaign on Sunday and endorsed Trump.

"The party is very united except for her," Trump said.

Fox News' Brooke Singman contributed to this report.

Posted by Landon MionShare

2:30 AM

Ramaswamy: Haley should drop out for good of the country, as observers say she's still 'alive'

Following Fox News' projection that former President Trump would win the New Hampshire Republican primary, former candidate Vivek Ramaswamy said the right move for runner-up Nikki Haley is to drop out and unite the party.

Ramaswamy called Tuesday's results a decisive Trump victory and added that a large number of independents voted in the Republican primary due to the Granite State's open-primary system.

He also called New Hampshire a microcosm of the national electorate:

"It's like a terrain for the general election," he said, adding that some of Haley's large donors like LinkedIn co-founder Reid Hoffman are anti-Trump figures or typically Democratic donors.

"So I think this is a prediction of what you're going to see in the general election. And the decisive margin we see tonight is, in some ways, I think, something that bodes well for Trump heading into the general election in November to reunite this country," he said.

"And so, in my view, the general election really begins tonight. I think the Republican primary, for all intents and purposes, is over tonight. And I think the party and the country are better off if we see that for what it is."

In her post-primary speech, Haley countered that the worst-kept secret in politics is that Democrats want to run against Trump in November, calling a Trump nomination precipitous of a "Biden win and Kamala Harris presidency."

However, Fox News host Kayleigh McEnany added on "Jesse Watters Primetime" that Haley's plan to remain in the race through South Carolina and beyond is an obvious "play" for the vice presidency in a Trump administration.

In the same vein, former Bush White House aide Karl Rove said Haley remaining the race may in one way benefit Trump, because battling the former governor allows him to "articulate a vision for the general election… if he takes on the task of describing a general election message, and positioning himself to beat Biden… then he's going to be better off."

"Whoever is the Republican nominee is going to have a lot to do in unifying the party and lowering the temperature and the principal responsibility is the front-runner," Rove said.

As Trump prepared to take the stage for a victory speech late Tuesday, Fox News political analyst Brit Hume quipped the former president was hoping for a resounding victory that would drive Haley from the race.

As results trickled in showing about a 10-point spread at press time, Hume considered that the race was instead a "run for [Trump's] money that he didn't want."

"He wanted what happened tonight to be a blowout win for him that would blow her out of the race," he said. "I don't think that's happened, so I don't know how gracious he's willing to be."

Hume said Haley's candidacy appears to still be "alive and kicking" as South Carolina approaches next on the docket in late February.

Fox News' Charles Creitz contributed to this report.

Posted by Landon MionShare

1:30 AM

Fox News Voter Analysis: What NH Republicans want on foreign policy

Fox News Voter Analysis: What NH Republicans want on foreign policy

Fox News Voter Analysis

Let’s take a look at the U.S. role in world affairs.

Half of Republican primary voters say the U.S. should play a less active role in solving the world’s problems. And 68% of these voters go for Trump, just a quarter go for Haley.

Specifically, what about aid to Israel? 64% of Republican primary voters in New Hampshire favor continuing aid to Israel. And of those, 54% of them voted for Trump, compared to 40% of them voting for Haley.But on Ukraine, New Hampshire Republicans are split.

49% of New Hampshire Republicans favor continuing aid to Ukraine. And among those, 63% went for Haley and 31% went for Trump.

One more additional thing -- we asked voters who they think has the best policy ideas.75% of New Hampshire GOPers say it’s “very” important for the eventual nominee to have the best policy ideas. And these voters? Well, 61% of them go for Trump.

Posted by Victoria BalaraShare

1:30 AM

Pro-Haley grassroots group admits she has 'steeper road ahead' facing Trump in South Carolina

A pro-Haley grassroots group says the former U.N. ambassador is "closing the gap" but concedes that she has a "steeper road ahead" in the days ahead.

"Tonight's results in New Hampshire show that Nikki Haley is closing the gap and that she is the clear alternative for voters who are ready to close the book on the toxic Biden-Trump political era. This is still an uphill battle. Now all eyes turn to South Carolina, where she has a steeper road ahead," Americans for Prosperity Action Senior Advisor Emily Seidel said.

She warned that if Republicans nominate former President Donald Trump, "we risk a repeat of the past three elections and the very real threat of full progressive control increases dramatically."

"This is why Joe Biden and the Democrats want him to be the nominee. The stakes for our country simply couldn’t be higher."

Posted by Adam Shaw

12:30 AM

Fox News Voter Analysis: Where Trump and Haley fared best in New Hampshire primary

Fox News Voter Analysis: Where Trump and Haley fared best in New Hampshire primary

Fox News Voter Analysis

Former president Trump had another good night in New Hampshire.The groups who put him over the top by 30 points in Iowa showed up again in the Granite State.

In New Hampshire, 81% of self-identified very conservatives went for Trump -- compared to 58% in Iowa. And 64% of those with no college degree backed the former president, while 57% of rural voters also voted for him.

Nikki Haley was counting on a different mix of voters in New Hampshire to boost her chances. And she did okay among moderates, college educated voters, and suburban voters -- but it just wasn’t enough.

Meanwhile, Trump is still facing multiple investigations and indictments. What do New Hampshire Republicans think about it?

46% think Trump did nothing wrong when it comes to January 6th, 43% say the same about his alleged interference in the 2020 vote count, and it is 37% when it comes to classified documents at Mar-a-Lago.

We also asked voters “is Trump too extreme to win in November?” and New Hampshire Republicans are split on this. Among the half who say he is too extreme, 71% supported Haley. And this supports her contention that she has a better chance in the general election than Trump.

Posted by Victoria BalaraShare

12:30 AM

Biden says 'stakes could not be higher' after NH victory

President Biden on Tuesday said the "stakes could not be higher" after he and former President Trump secured victories in their respective presidential primaries in New Hampshire.

"It is now clear that Donald Trump will be the Republican nominee. And my message to the country is the stakes could not be higher. Our Democracy. Our personal freedoms — from the right to choose to the right to vote. Our economy — which has seen the strongest recovery in the world since COVID. All are at stake," Biden said in a statement.

"I want to thank all those who wrote my name in this evening in New Hampshire. It was a historic demonstration of commitment to our democratic process. And I want to say to all those Independents and Republicans who  our commitment to core values of our nation — our Democracy, our personal freedoms, an economy that gives everyone a fair shot — to join us as Americans."

"Let’s remember. We are the United States of America. And there is nothing — nothing — we can’t do if we do it together," he said.

Posted by Adam Shaw

12:30 AM

Nikki Haley set to outperform polls in New Hampshire primary

Haley is performing well in the areas she needed to carry.

The best example is Bedford, a wealthy suburb of Manchester. This traditionally Republican area flipped blue for the first time in decades in the 2020 general election.

With 95% of the vote in there, Haley is running about 10 points ahead of Trump. That’s why she looks set to outperform some of the recent polls.

As we know, that won’t translate into an overall win. There’s a lot of Trump vote out there, all across the state. And it showed up in force for the former president tonight.

Posted by Rémy Numa

12:30 AM

Haley campaign takes aim at "angry" Trump speech

Former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley's campaign is accusing former President Donald Trump of being "angry" after a speech in which he took aim at Haley.

“Two states have now voted in the presidential race, and Donald Trump barely received half of the vote – not exactly a ringing endorsement for a former president demanding a coronation,” said Haley communications director Nachama Soloveichik.

“His angry rant was filled with grievances and offered the American people nothing about his vision for our country’s future. This is why so many voters want to move on from Trump’s chaos and are rallying to Nikki Haley’s new generation of conservative leadership.”

Posted by Adam ShawShare

11:30 PM

Trump wins again in New Hampshire, Haley vows to keep going

Former President Donald Trump did it again.

Eight days after he crushed the competition in Iowa's low-turnout Republican presidential caucuses, Trump quickly defeated Nikki Haley - his final remaining major rival for the GOP nomination - in Tuesday's New Hampshire primary.

Fox News projected Trump would win the primary just a few minutes after the final polls closed in New Hampshire."I’m very honored by the result," Trump told Fox News Digital's Brooke Singman in a statement. 

Haley said in a speech to supporters in Concord, New Hampshire after the race was called that "I want to congratulate Donald Trump on his victory tonight.

He earned it and I want to acknowledge that."When asked if he felt Haley would suspend her campaign, Trump told Fox News Digital that he didn't know but "she should."

But as the votes continued to be tabulated, the former president's margin over Haley remained in the single digits. 

And Haley emphasized her campaign would continue. "Now you’ve all heard the chatter among the political class. They’re falling all over themselves saying this race is over. Well, I have news for all of them: New Hampshire is first in the nation. It is not last in the nation. This race is far from over."

Posted by Paul SteinhauserShare

11:30 PM

Florida Senator Marco Rubio jabs at Haley, declares Trump 'will be the GOP nominee'

Florida Senator Marco Rubio, a Republican, declared former President Trump will carry the party's torch in the 2024 presidential election.

Rubio, who ran for president in 2016, made his declaration on Tuesday after Trump's win in New Hampshire over former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley.

"Trump will be the GOP nominee," Rubio tweeted on Tuesday.

"What we don’t know yet is how much donor money is going to be wasted over the next month," he continued in a jab at Haley continuing her campaign.

Rubio's tweet comes as a chorus of Republican senators throw their hats behind Trump for president in 2024.

Nebraska GOP Senator Deb Fischer gave her endorsement of Trump for president after his victory on Tuesday.

She joined Texas Senator John Cornyn, a fellow Republican, in backing the former president's bid to take on President Biden for the Oval Office.

Posted by Houston KeeneShare

 

11:30 PM

Ramaswamy calls on Haley to end campaign following 'decisive' Trump victory in New Hampshire

Former Republican presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy called on Nikki Haley to end her bid for the presidency Tuesday following Donald Trump's "decisive" victory in the New Hampshire GOP primary.

"I think this is a decisive win for Donald Trump. That’s what we are seeing tonight," Ramaswamy told Fox News. "It might be the general election really begins tonight. I think the Republican primary, for all intents and purposes, is over tonight, and the party and the country are better off if we see that for what it is."

When asked if he was calling for Haley to suspend her campaign, Ramaswamy said it would "be the right thing for the country."

He added that Haley continuing her campaign would "send the signal" that she is counting on Trump being eliminated from the contest through outside means, meaning his legal troubles.

"I think that is downright wrong. I think it’s wrong for the Republican Party and wrong for this country," Ramaswamy said. "There is no viable path for her to defeat him through the front door."

"It’s time for Nikki Haley to do the right thing," he added.

Posted by Brandon GillespieShare

11:30 PM

Phillips to remain in Dem presidential primary race, says voters deserve 'options'

Rep. Dean Phillips, D-Minn., says he will remain in the Democratic presidential primary race, despite losing to President Biden in the New Hampshire primary.

"Congratulations to President Biden, who absolutely won tonight, but by no means in a way that a strong incumbent president should," he said.

Biden is projected to have won the primary, despite not being on the ballot, after a write-in campaign from his supporters.

Phillips said voters deserved "options" and also praised GOP candidate Nikki Haley for remaining in the race despite her defeat in the Republican primary to former President Donald Trump.

"This country deserves options, this country should not have coronations. And I know I know the exhausted majority of this country, center right and center, left Americans. I know they'd much rather see a Nikki Haley-Dean Phillips matchup this November, and we're going to try to get that done," he said.

Posted by Adam ShawShare

11:30 PM

Nebraska Senator Deb Fischer endorses Trump for president after New Hampshire win

 

Nebraska Senator Deb Fischer, a Republican, endorsed former President Trump for president after his New Hampshire GOP primary win over former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley.

Fischer posted a statement on Tuesday night endorsing Trump after the former president took the GOP primary election in the Granite State.

"It's time for Republicans to unite around President Donald Trump and make Joe Biden a one-term president," Fischer said.

"These last three years have yielded a crippling border crisis, an inflationary economy that prices the American Dream out of reach for families, and a world in constant turmoil with our enemies on the march," she continued.

"I endorse Donald Trump for President so we can secure our border, get our economy moving again, and keep America safe," she added.

Fischer is the latest GOP senator to endorse Trump after his win in New Hampshire, joining Texas GOP Senator John Cornyn.

Posted by Houston KeeneShare

11:30 PM

Fox News Voter Analysis: What sort of New Hampshire Republicans support Trump?

Fox News Voter Analysis: What sort of New Hampshire Republicans support Trump?

Fox News Voter Analysis

The New Hampshire primary has wrapped and former president Donald Trump is the winner.With our Fox News Voter Analysis election survey, we’ve been talking with more than 1,800 N.H. Republican primary voters.

Let’s start by looking at some of the groups where Trump did the best.Half of N.H. Republican primary voters describe themselves as MAGA supporters, and 87% of them voted for Trump.

He also did well with conservative voters, folks without a college degree, and rural voters. This is similar to what we saw in Iowa last week.When did primary voters decide who they were voting for?

Six-in-10 decided more than a month ago. And 69% of this group goes for Trump, only a quarter for Haley.What do Republican primary voters think about how the country is run?

About three-in-10 voters say they want complete and total upheaval -- and 82% of them go for Trump. This is even more than in Iowa, where 70% of these caucus goers went for Trump.One more thing, about winning in November: 74% say it’s very important for the Republican nominee to be able to win in November. Over six-in-10 of these voters go for Trump.

Posted by Victoria BalaraShare

10:30 PM

Haley declares GOP race 'far from over' after dropping New Hampshire primary to Trump

Former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley declared the race for the Republican nomination "far from over," despite her second straight loss to former President Donald Trump, this time in the New Hampshire GOP primary.

"New Hampshire is first in the nation. It is not the last in the nation nation. This race is far from over. There are dozens of states left to go," Haley told a crowd of supporters gathered at her election watch party on Tuesday.

"At one point, in this campaign, there were 14 of us running, and we were at 2% in the polls. Well, I’m a fighter, and I’m scrappy. And now we are the last ones standing next to Donald Trump," she added.

The race now heads to Nevada and then to Haley's home state of South Carolina, where Trump currently holds a commanding lead.

Posted by Brandon GillespieShare

10:30 PM

Biden-Harris campaign declares Trump the GOP nominee after New Hampshire primary win

President Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris' re-election campaign responded to former President Donald Trump's win in the New Hampshire Republican primary by declaring him to be the GOP nominee for president.

Trump easily defeated former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley despite her surge in the Granite State in recent weeks.

"Tonight’s results confirm Donald Trump has all but locked up the GOP nomination, and the election denying, anti-freedom MAGA movement has completed its takeover of the Republican Party," campaign manager Julie Chavez Rodriguez said in a statement.

"Trump is offering Americans the same extreme agenda that has cost Republicans election after election: promising to undermine American democracy, reward the wealthy on the backs of the middle class, and ban abortion nationwide," she said.

"Joe Biden sees things differently. He’s fighting to grow our economy for the middle-class, strengthen our democracy, and protect the rights of every single American. While we work toward November 2024, one thing is increasingly clear today: Donald Trump is headed straight into a general election matchup where he’ll face the only person to have ever beaten him at the ballot box: Joe Biden," she added.

Posted by Brandon GillespieShare

10:30 PM

Stefanik congratulates Trump on 'monumental' NH victory, calls on Haley to drop out

House Republican Conference Chair Elise Stefanik is congratulating former President Donald Trump on his "monumental" victory in New Hampshire, and called on former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley to drop out.

“Congratulations to President Donald Trump on his monumental victory in the New Hampshire Primary and making history as the first GOP challenger candidate to win both Iowa and New Hampshire!" she said in a statement.

"Thank you to the Granite Staters for your incredible support for President Trump. Having spent the past weekend in the Live Free or Die State, I saw firsthand the energy and momentum behind President Trump’s campaign to Save America. President Trump has the most enthusiastic supporters and volunteers of any campaign in U.S. history."

"This evening, Granite Staters also overwhelmingly rejected Nikki Haley and her Extreme Democrat and Never Trump donors. For the sake of the Republic, it is well past time for her to suspend her failing campaign and unite behind President Trump to take on the most corrupt president in history Joe Biden," she said.

"I know President Trump will defeat Joe Biden; the voters know it, Joe Biden knows it, and Nikki Haley knows it. Any effort to desperately divide Republicans going forward will be remembered and seen as a direct assist to Joe Biden’s failing campaign."

"It must end now."

Fox News' Brooke Singman contributed to this report.

Posted by Adam ShawShare

10:30 PM

Outcomes from past New Hampshire primary elections

Over the last 50 years, in primaries where there was no incumbent president, New Hampshire has had a stellar record of choosing the Republican nominee, 71.4%, but a below-average record of choosing the next president, 42.8%. 

In 1976, President Gerald Ford won a highly contested primary against Reagan on his way to capturing the nomination. He lost the general election to Carter.

In 2016, New Hampshire voted for then-outsider Donald Trump, going to establishmentarian Mitt Romney in 2012, and then the comeback campaign of John McCain in 2008.

McCain also won the primaries in 2000.

Massachusetts Gov. Michael Dukakis won the 1988 primary in New Hampshire, but he lost the general election to Vice President George H.W. Bush.

Vice President Al Gore won the 2000 primary, but lost the general election to then-Texas Gov. George W. Bush. In 2004, then-Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts won the primary election, but lost to Bush in the general election.

Democrats had a much worse prediction record in the state, only choosing the nominee in an open primary 37.5% of the time and never successfully choosing the president. In 2020 and 2016 they voted for Bernie Sanders, Hillary Clinton in 2008, and John Kerry in 2004. 

Fox News' Gabriele Regalbuto contributed to this report.

Posted by Matteo CinaShare

10:30 PM

How has New Hampshire voted in the past?

A bit of an oddity in the Northeast, New Hampshire has a strong trend of fiscal conservatism and social liberalism that tends to vote Republican in local elections but Democrat in national elections. 

New Hampshire has gone blue in every presidential election after 2000, when former President George W. Bush won the state by 2 points, and it has been alternating between Republican and Democrat governors somewhat evenly over the past three decades. Both U.S. senators and both U.S. representatives are Democrats, but both chambers of the state legislature are controlled by Republicans. 

Living up to their independent streak, looking at Republican presidential primaries don’t paint a much clearer picture on who the state traditionally supports. In 2016, they supported then- outsider Donald Trump with 36% of the vote, in 2012 they supported establishment favorite Mitt Romney with 52% of the vote, but in 2008 they backed John McCain with 46% of the vote. The year 2000 was Bush with 62%, 1996 was Bob Dole with 58%, and 1984 was George H.W. Bush with 68%. 

The only unifying thread, with Bob Dole being the exception, is that New Hampshire appears to choose the candidate who goes on to win the primary. 

Posted by Matteo CinaShare

Donald Trump wins New Hampshire GOP primary: Fox News Decision desk

The Fox News Decision Desk can now project that former President Donald Trump will win the New Hampshire Republican primary.

This is an important win for Trump, given the role that undeclared voters and moderate New England Republicans play in the state.

He defeats his only notable rival, former Governor Nikki Haley.

Haley appears to be running a somewhat closer race than some recent surveys showed.

Both candidates will receive a  of the 22 delegates at stake tonight.

Posted by Decision DeskShare

Donald Trump holds solid lead in New Hampshire Republican primary: Fox News Decision Desk

The last polls have closed in New Hampshire.

The Fox News Decision Desk believes former President Donald Trump has a solid lead in the Republican primary.

Former Governor Nikki Haley appears to be running a somewhat closer race than some recent surveys showed.

Posted by Decision DeskShare

Biden wins New Hampshire Democratic primary, Fox News Decision Desk projects

Last polls have closed in New Hampshire. The Fox News Decision Desk can project that President Joe Biden will win the Democratic primary.

Biden’s voters had to write his name in today because of a dispute between the DNC and New Hampshire over which states should vote first.

He defeats rivals including Rep. Dean Phillips, the Minnesota congressman, who is likely to finish in double digits.

He entered the race calling for a “new generation of leaders.”

This is a symbolic victory. Because of the same dispute, there are no delegates on the line tonight.

Posted by Decision DeskShare

 

7:30 PM

Fox News Voter Analysis: Will New Hampshire Republicans vote for Trump if he's the nominee?

Fox News Voter Analysis: Will New Hampshire Republicans vote for Trump if he's the nominee?

Fox News Voter Analysis

Here are some top findings from Republican primary voters in New Hampshire, starting with how the landscape’s different today, compared to Iowa.

First up, evangelicals - Trump won Iowa in large part thanks to their support. But in New Hampshire, only one in five are evangelical Christians. In Iowa, evangelicals were 46% - that’s a 25-point difference.

Another difference between Iowa and New Hampshire is the  who identify as MAGA.In New Hampshire, about half consider themselves MAGA supporters, while in Iowa that was 62%.

And, here’s a gut check question. Who do these folks think will win the GOP nomination?Fewer than 2 in 10 GOP primary voters expect it will be Nikki Haley. But far more, nearly 8 in 10, say Donald Trump wins. That includes some Haley supporters!

But, how satisfied would they be if it’s Trump?

Posted by Victoria BalaraShare

7:30 PM

Is writing in Biden a waste of a vote?

New Hampshire Democrats are facing an unusual dilemma in tonight’s presidential primary, where President Biden will not be on the ballot -- and it will be up to Biden supporters to write in his name.

The Democratic National Committee had hoped to hold the party’s first primary in South Carolina on Feb. 3, but New Hampshire Secretary of State David Scanlan, a Republican, had announced that the primary would go ahead on Jan 23

It’s a state that Rep. Dean Phillips, D-Minn., is focusing much of his attention. His and others’ names will be on the ballot, but not Biden. As a result, top Democrats have launched a write-in campaign.

Phillips stands at 10% in a University of New Hampshire/CNN poll conducted Jan. 16-19, a point ahead of bestselling author and spiritual adviser Marianne Williamson, who is making her second straight White House run.

Sixty-three percent of those questioned in the survey said they'd write in Biden's name.

While Biden is the commanding front-runner for the nomination, writing in his name is unlikely to be a wasted vote, as anything but a Biden win in the state would create a difficult narrative for his campaign and raise questions about the strength of support for his candidacy -- and would give a massive boost to his critics both inside the party and from outside.

Fox News' Paul Steinhauser and Landon Mion contributed to this report.

Posted by Adam ShawShare

7:30 PM

Fox News Voter Analysis: Large portion of NH Democrats say Biden is too old for second term

Fox News Voter Analysis: Large portion of NH Democrats say Biden is too old for second term

Fox News Voter Analysis

What about President Biden’s age?

In our survey of Democratic primary voters, over half believe his age isn’t a problem.

But more than 4 in 10 Granite State Dems say he’s too old to serve another term. And get this, that includes even some who are supporting Biden today.

Posted by Victoria BalaraShare

7:30 PM

Fox News Voter Analysis: New Hampshire Republicans on whether Biden won 2020 'legitimately'

Fox News Voter Analysis: New Hampshire Republicans on whether Biden won 2020 'legitimately'

Fox News Voter Analysis

“Mental capability” is the number one quality New Hampshire Republicans are looking for in a presidential candidate. That is far ahead of other traits, such as being a strong leader of having the best policies – it’s even more important than their candidate winning in November.

Here’s one possible reason the ability to defeat Joe Biden feels less important to Republicans: a majority doesn’t accept Trump’s 2020 defeat. This includes almost all Trump supporters.

Posted by Victoria BalaraShare

7:30 PM

We will start seeing some vote results soon, but don't draw any conclusions.

Twenty towns are still voting until 8 p.m. That includes Nashua, which had the second highest number of raw votes in the 2016 Republican primary.

Posted by Rémy NumaShare

7:30 PM

Fox News Voter Analysis: New Hampshire Republicans overwhelmingly see bias in Trump charges

Fox News Voter Analysis: New Hampshire Republicans overwhelmingly see bias in Trump charges

Fox News Voter Analysis

When it comes to the charges against former President Trump, just one-third of Republicans in New Hampshire say that they’re legitimate attempts to investigate important issues, while two-thirds say that they’re political attempts to undermine the former president.

Posted by Victoria BalaraShare

7:30 PM

Fox News Voter Analysis: What New Hampshire voters want in a GOP nominee

Fox News Voter Analysis: What New Hampshire voters want in a GOP nominee

Fox News Voter Analysis

Let’s dig into some top findings from New Hampshire. First, what qualities are Republicans looking for in their nominee?

Almost all Granite State GOP voters say their nominee’s mental capability is very important. That’s far more than say the same about other traits, like being a strong leader and having the best policies -- it’s even more than feel that way about their candidate winning in November.

Posted by Victoria BalaraShare

BREAKING NEWS23:30 PM

Polls have begun closing in New Hampshire

It's 7:00 p.m. ET and the first polls have begun closing in New Hampshire's first in the nation primary.

Some sites will remain open, but every polling location in New Hampshire will be closed by 8 p.m. ET

Posted by Brandon GillespieShare

8:30 PM

Fox News Voter Analysis: New Hampshire Republicans strongly support border wall

Fox News Voter Analysis: New Hampshire Republicans strongly support border wall

Fox News Voter Analysis

When it comes to the U.S. Mexico wall, Republicans in New Hampshire support it – just as they did in Iowa.

Posted by Victoria BalaraShare

8:30 PM

Fox News Voter Analysis: How New Hampshire Republicans view immigration

Fox News Voter Analysis: How New Hampshire Republicans view immigration

Fox News Voter Analysis

Immigration is a top issue for Republicans across the country – and that continues to be true in New Hampshire. So, do New Hampshire Republicans say immigrants do more to help or hurt the country? Well, close to 7 in 10 say they do more to hurt.

That was similar to what we saw in Iowa, where three quarters of Republicans said immigrants do more to hurt the county than to help the country.

Posted by Victoria BalaraShare

8:30 PM

Nikki Haley will only debate Joe Biden or Donald Trump during rest of 2024 campaign

Former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley has made it a point that she will only agree to more debates as long as former president Donald Trump or President Joe Biden are also on the debate stage.

Haley declined a debate moderated by ABC News unless Trump were to attend. The debate invitation was extended to Haley, Trump and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis.

Haley released a statement on her decision as to why she would not participate.

“We’ve had five great debates in this campaign. Unfortunately, Donald Trump has ducked all of them. He has nowhere left to hide. The next debate I do will either be with Donald Trump or with Joe Biden. I look forward to it.”

The former president has denied participating in debates, given his lead in polls.

Florida Governor DeSantis went after Haley on X for her decision on not participating in debates, last week.

“Nikki Haley is afraid to debate because she doesn’t want to answer the tough questions such as how she got rich off Boeing after giving them millions in taxpayer handouts as governor of South Carolina,” DeSantis claimed.

“The reality is that she is not running for the nomination, she’s running to be Trump’s VP,” he added.

The Florida governor went on to say that unlike Haley and Trump he wouldn’t “snub New Hampshire voters,” and that he anticipated the debate with “two empty podiums in the Granite State.”

There have been 5 Republican presidential primary debates so far.

Fox News’ Anders Hagstrom and Greg Wehner contributed to this report.

Posted by Emily RobertsonShare

8:30 PM

What tonight's primaries mean for the delegate race

Tonight, there are 22 delegates on the line for Republicans in New Hampshire.

Trump and Haley will take delegates home in proportion with their vote. In other words, a candidate who wins about half the vote can expect about 11 delegates.

There’s a small difference between New Hampshire’s rules and what we saw in Iowa – candidates must get at least 10% of the vote to win any delegates at all.

But with Trump and Haley the only notable candidates left in this race, that’s not likely to matter.

Democrats are voting in an “advisory primary,” the result of a spat between the DNC and the Granite State.

That means no delegates are at stake.

The results might have symbolic meaning. Biden’s chief rival Rep. Dean Phillips has invested heavily here. If he outperforms expectations, we could see a lot more of him this primary season.

Posted by Rémy NumaShare

8:30 PM

Fox News Voter Analysis: New Hampshire Republicans reveal their personal financial situation

Fox News Voter Analysis: New Hampshire Republicans reveal their personal financial situation

Fox News Voter Analysis

On a personal level, what do Republicans think about their own financial situation? As we saw in the Iowa caucus last week, New Hampshire Republican primary voters say they’re in bad shape financially. Just about 1 in 10 say they’re getting ahead, while more than two times that say they are falling behind.

That’s similar to the nearly six-in-ten Iowa Republican caucus goers who said they were just ‘holding steady’ and the third who said they were ‘falling behind’.

Posted by Victoria BalaraShare

8:30 PM

Fox News Voter Analysis: Immigration tops list of most important issues for NH Republicans

Fox News Voter Analysis: Immigration tops list of most important issues for NH Republicans

Fox News Voter Analysis

Immigration tops the list of issues that are most important to Republican voters – both in New Hampshire and in Iowa. In Iowa, four-in-ten Republicans said immigration was the most important issue, followed by a third saying the economy and jobs. No other issue comes close.

In New Hampshire the story is the same, with 4 in 10 Republican primary voters saying immigration is their top issue.

Posted by Victoria BalaraShare

8:30 PM

Who is Biden challenger Marianne Williamson?

Democrat presidential candidate Marianne Williamson is a spiritual adviser and bestselling self-help author who is running for her party's presidential nomination for the second time.

She first ran unsuccessfully in 2020, but officially declared her candidacy again last March.

During the 2020 cycle, Williamson was an unconventional candidate who preached the politics of love. She emphasized "six pillars for a season of moral repair," including economic justice.

She proposed creating a Department of Children and Youths and a Department of Peace, and she pushed for reparations for the descendants of African-American slaves.

Among her unorthodox acts was holding a meditation session while campaigning in New Hampshire.

Fox News' Paul Steinhauser, Kyle Morris and Thomas Phippen contributed to this report.

Posted by Brandon GillespieShare

7:30 PM

What does it mean if Donald Trump wins New Hampshire tonight?

Former President Donald Trump's likely win in the New Hampshire Republican primary tonight could mean a number of things, and will probably depend on the margin of his victory.

A commanding win would only solidify his frontrunner status, and former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley would likely face increased calls to end her bid for the GOP nomination.

If Haley surges and limits Trump to a marginal victory, the race could continue through the Nevada caucuses on Feb. 8 and the South Carolina primary on Feb. 24.

If Haley stays competitive and remains in the race, the contest between the two would then head to Michigan and other states.

Posted by Brandon GillespieShare

7:30 PM

New Hampshire voter turnout is 'very strong,' officials say

New Hampshire’s Secretary of State office tells Fox News they can “confidently say voter turnout is very strong” and is so far on track to meet the predicted record voter turnout.

They added “It’ll be interesting to see how close that prediction got.”

They estimated a record high 322,000 turnout for a Republican primary. 

Results are expected to start trickling in during the 7 p.m. hour. During the 2020 election, final  results for both the Republican and Democratic primaries were announced shortly after midnight.

The primaries are semi-closed, meaning that unaffiliated voters may vote in either the Republican or Democrat primary, but Democrats may not vote in the Republican primary and vice versa. 

Fox News' Paul Steinhauser and Bryan Llenas contributed to this report.

Posted by Adam ShawShare

7:30 PM

Nikki Haley PAC releases talking points ahead of New Hampshire showdown

 

Talking points from Stand for America Fund, Inc., obtained by Fox News Digital.

FIRST ON FOX: A political action committee (PAC) supporting GOP presidential candidate Nikki Haley released talking points ahead of her showdown with former President Trump in New Hampshire.

Tuesday marks the critical New Hampshire primary election that will prove to either solidify Trump as the 2024 Republican presidential nominee or show Haley has a chance.

Stand for America Fund, Inc., a PAC founded by Haley supporting her presidential aspirations, published talking points ahead of Tuesday's primary claiming the scalp of Florida Governor Ron DeSantis' recently-suspended campaign.

"We've already been successful this week, we knocked Ron DeSantis out of the race this weekend," the first talker obtained by Fox News Digital reads.

"We were at 20 points in Iowa, we'll gain on that in New Hampshire and are in striking distance to Donald Trump," the talking points continue.

"A month ago people would have laughed if we told you Nikki Haley got 20% of the vote, tying Ron DeSantis in Iowa and knocking him out of the race and would be going head to head with Donald Trump into New Hampshire."

The PAC's talkers said its "ready for South Carolina, an open primary and Nikki's home state," and that they will then "turn to Michigan, an open primary state and then 11 of 14 Super Tuesday states have open or semi-open primaries."

"Nikki has defied expectations every step of the way, voters deserve a choice and she knows she's the best person to take on Joe Biden," the final point reads.

Posted by Houston KeeneShare

7:30 PM

Who is longshot 2024 presidential candidate Ryan Binkley?

There are many big names among the GOP candidates in the 2024 presidential election, but candidate Ryan Binkley is not one of them.

Binkley, a businessman, lead pastor and a longshot contender for the Republican 2024 presidential nomination, announced his run for the presidency on April 23, 2023.

He was born in Columbus, Georgia and grew up in Texas. He graduated with a Bachelor's degree in Business Administration and entrepreneurship from the University of Texas at Austin and a Master's degree in Business Administration from the Cox School of Business at Southern Methodist University, according to his campaign website.

Binkley worked for Proctor & Gamble and the Boston Scientific Corporation before making a career change. He launched the Generational Group in 2005 and became CEO and president in 2023.

Binkley is the co-founder, along with his wife Ellie, of Create Church also located in Richardson, Texas in 2014 and has served as lead pastor since 2023. The couple have five children and their youngest was adopted from South Korea, where his wife was born before she moved to the United States with her parents, according to his campaign website.

Binkley is urging "America's leaders to return to the core values of trusting in God and each other again, caring for the hurting, leading with integrity, and bringing hope and healing to your nation," the site also states.

Despite campaigning and holding events in Iowa ahead of tonight's caucus, the businessman and pastor has failed to gain support in any polls, according to Des Moines Register.

Posted by Emily RobertsonShare

7:30 PM

New Hampshire voters: What you need to know to vote before polls close today

New Hampshire hosts the nation’s first presidential primary, with polls opening in the small town of Dixville Notch at midnight and other towns following suit in the morning. Most polling places will close at 7 p.m. ET, with all polls closing by 8 p.m.

Results are expected to start trickling in during the 7 p.m. hour. During the 2020 election, final  results for both the Republican and Democratic primaries were announced shortly after midnight. Concord and Manchester, the state’s capital and largest city, respectively, typically tally votes faster than the state’s more rural areas, according to the Associated Press.

The results for Dixville Notch, where only six residents voted, were tallied shortly after midnight, with all votes going for Haley.

The New Hampshire primary is “open,” meaning politically undeclared voters can cast ballots in a party primary.

Posted by Emma ColtonShare

7:30 PM

What happened to Asa Hutchinson?

Former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson ended his longshot presidential bid just a day after his poor performance in the Iowa caucuses, where he earned less than 200 votes.

Hutchinson finished just before ex-New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, who dropped out before the Iowa caucuses, and trailed Ryan Binkley, a businessman with no national political platform.

“Today, I am suspending my campaign for President and driving back to Arkansas,” Hutchinson said in a statement last week. “My message of being a principled Republican with experience and telling the truth about the current front runner did not sell in Iowa.”

Hutchinson and Christie were the only two GOP 2024 hopefuls who attacked ex-President Donald Trump early, directly and often toward the beginning of the race.

But Hutchinson never seemed to generate enough voter interest for any serious momentum, and he failed to crack 1% support in most national polls. He has not issued an endorsement for either of the candidates left.

Posted by Liz Elkind

 

 

ATTACHMENT “C” (3) – FROM WASHPOST

 

Title: TRUMP WINS NEW HAMPSHIRE PRIMARY

 

4:30 TO 6:20 pm ???

17 min ago

Abortion-rights groups at Biden rally strategize how to hit Trump on the issue

6:03 pm

MANASSAS, Va. — As they prepared to watch President Biden and Vice President Harris lead a campaign rally marking the 51st anniversary of Roe v. Wade, organizers from some of the biggest abortion rights groups offered advice for how to successfully attack former president Donald Trump on the issue.

Trump has appeared to moderate his language on abortion in recent weeks, criticizing the strictest abortion bans and noting that Republicans have lost races for backing policies that seem too harsh.

Florida congressman says he was glad to see DeSantis leave the race

 

By Sabrina Rodriguez

1.23  71 am or 1044 pm

Rep. Byron Donalds shakes hands with former president Donald Trump at an event in June. Donalds endorsed Trump early last year and has been a surrogate for him on the campaign trail. (Hannah Beier/For the Washington Post)

MANCHESTER, N.H. — Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Fla.), a Trump surrogate who endorsed the former president early last year, said he was pleased to see Gov. Ron DeSantis out of the Republican primary race and back in Florida.

“The governor ran hard, but it wasn’t in the cards for him. Now we have our governor back. He’s the best governor in the country,” Donalds told The Washington Post. “We got him back, and we’re united.”

 

55 min ago 5:25?

Haley isn’t dropping out after New Hampshire, strategist says

MANCHESTER, N.H. — Mark Harris, the lead strategist for the pro-Haley super PAC SFA Fund Inc., emphasized on Tuesday afternoon that Nikki Haley will not be dropping out after New Hampshire — even if she loses to Donald Trump here by double digits.

“I think turnout is trending in the direction we need it to be, so we’re optimistic about tonight. But regardless we’re on to South Carolina tomorrow morning,” he told reporters at the expo center.

 

Haley’s calls for ‘consensus’ on abortion draw mixed interpretations

EPPING, N.H. — After Nikki Haley fielded questions from reporters at a seafood restaurant here, she stopped to greet a diner who wanted to talk about the Republican candidate’s call for “consensus” on abortion at the federal level.

“There is no consensus on that; that’s the problem,” the woman told Haley.

Why Biden isn’t on the New Hampshire primary ballot

Earlier today

 

 

(Jabin Botsford/The Washington Post)

2 hours ago 4:20 pm?

Analysis: What happens to a campaign headquarters when the campaign ends?

By Philip Bump

National columnist focused largely on the numbers behind politics

 

Composite photo of a building in a Manchester, N.H., strip mall in 2016 and 2024. (Philip Bump/The Washington Post)

Presidential campaigns are, in essence, businesses with a limited shelf life. The candidate is the product. The campaign tries to sell the product with ads and outreach and by getting media attention. Donors are investors; power is the return. And at the scale of a major-party presidential nominee, the business is national, with thousands of employees and an enormous budget spanning an extended period of time.

This is an excerpt from a full story.

2 hours ago

By Azi Paybarah

National reporter covering campaigns and breaking politics news.

 

“I Voted” stickers at the Hinsdale, N.H. polling station on Tuesday. (Kristopher Radder Brattleboro Reformer/AP)

The real winners in New Hampshire are Grace, Jacob and Rilynn.

They are fourth-graders who won New Hampshire’s first “I Voted Sticker” contest back in October. Voters in the Granite State on Tuesday are showing off their fine work.

But the unofficial champion of the genre is probably 2022’s “I Voted” sticker from Ulster County, N.Y.

2 hours ago

Trump civil trial scheduled to resume Wednesday

By Shayna Jacobs

Courts, law enforcement and criminal justice

         

E. Jean Carroll and former president Donald Trump watch in this courtroom sketch as presiding Judge Lewis Kaplan postpones the trial because one juror and a parent of one of Trump's lawyers became ill. (Jane Rosenberg/Reuters)

NEW YORK — Donald Trump’s civil defamation trial, which ended early and without testimony Monday because of coronavirus-related concerns, will resume Wednesday, according to court officials.

Trump had indicated that he was planning to testify Monday against E. Jean Carroll in her 2019 defamation lawsuit.

By Patrick Marley National reporter focusing on voting issues in the Upper Midwest

 

Former president Donald Trump greets supporters outside a polling location in Londonderry, N.H., on Tuesday. (Jabin Botsford/The Washington Post)

A Massachusetts commission Monday dismissed a challenge to Donald Trump’s eligibility to run in the state’s primary after finding it didn’t have jurisdiction to consider the issue.

The decision comes as the Supreme Court prepares to take up an appeal over a ruling to remove Trump from the primary ballot in Colorado based on his actions before and during the attack on the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021.

 

2:02 p.m. EST

Inside the unusual Biden write-in campaign in New Hampshire

By Meryl Kornfield

 

CONCORD, N.H. — On a bustling intersection near where every presidential candidate has signed up to run in New Hampshire, a small posse of local Democrats held up signs for someone who has not recently visited the state and will not be on the ballot in Tuesday’s Democratic primary: President Biden.

This is an excerpt from a full story.

Continue readingContinue reading

1:48 p.m. EST

By Azi Paybarah

New Hampshire Secretary of State David Scanlan said he is prepared in case anyone questions the legitimacy of the election results in his state.

“When those claims arise we always ask, ‘Where’s the proof? Where’s the evidence?,’ ” he told CNN.

Referring to past claims, Scanlan added, “None has been provided.”

 

1:36 p.m. EST

By Mariana Alfaro

Former president Donald Trump, in a gaggle with reporters at a polling place in Londonderry, N.H., said he doesn’t care if Nikki Haley stays in the race after the New Hampshire primary.

“Let her do whatever she wants,” he said.

The former president also noted that he “would never ask anyone to pull out” of the primary.

 

1:14 p.m. EST

By Mariana Alfaro

Ryan Binkley, the Texas pastor and businessman who is vying for the Republican presidential nomination, is holding a handful of events in New Hampshire on primary day.

Binkley will meet with supporters at a “Way to Freedom” event in the evening before holding a watch party later on Tuesday night.

 

1:00 p.m. EST

Analysis: What can we learn from the votes of six people in Dixville Notch?

By Philip Bump

While you were either asleep (East Coasters, Europeans) or still experiencing Monday (West Coasters, night owls), six people showed up at a hotel in a tiny town in northern New Hampshire and voted to make former ambassador Nikki Haley the Republican presidential nominee in 2024.

This is an excerpt from a full story.

Continue readingContinue reading

12:45 p.m. EST

Nikki Haley spars with ‘Fox and Friends’ hosts

By Azi Paybarah

As New Hampshire voters headed to the polls for the first-in-the-nation primary, former U.N. ambassador Nikki Haley appeared on Fox News’s popular morning news program and criticized how it is covering her race against former president Donald Trump.

 

REPORTING FROM LONDONDERRY, N.H.

12:36 p.m. EST

By Meryl Kornfield

Reporter

Outside of a large polling location at a high school, Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) rallied supporters of former president Donald Trump and thanked them for their support.

Greene, a campaign surrogate for Trump, told the dozens of fans gathered that she expects a large turnout for Trump.

“The biggest message for Nikki Haley is: Drop out,” she said to cheers.

 

12:20 p.m. EST

By Marianne LeVine

 

Former president Donald Trump’s lead in the latest Suffolk University-Boston Globe-NBC10 tracking poll can be explained by his substantial margin over former U.N. ambassador Nikki Haley among registered Republicans.

In the poll, Trump has support from 77 percent of registered Republicans, compared to 22 percent for Haley. Haley is really counting on independents, who can vote in the GOP primary, to help narrow the gap. The poll found 55 percent of independents support Haley while 40 percent support Trump.

Trump’s lead among all likely GOP primary voters is 60 percent to 38 percent.

 

12:08 p.m. EST

By Melina Mara

Former U.N. ambassador Nikki Haley appeared on Fox News’s “Fox & Friends” from Bedford, N.H., on Tuesday before heading out to the polls to connect with voters at polling sites, including in Hampton, N.H.

 

11:56 a.m. EST

Some N.H. Democrats discover they can’t vote for Haley

By Maeve Reston, Meryl Kornfield and Sabrina Rodriguez

Some Democrats showing up to Nikki Haley’s events and their polling places Tuesday have been surprised to discover that they can’t cast a ballot for Haley because Democrats are not allowed to participate in New Hampshire’s GOP primary.

 

11:48 a.m. EST

Top N.H. election official prepares for the primary. And its aftermath.

By Rhonda Colvin

Senior Reporter and Producer covering Congress

MANCHESTER, N.H. — New Hampshire Secretary of State David Scanlan is confronting a campaign in 2024 like no other. He’s already handled some thorny issues his predecessors never had to.

This is an excerpt from a full story.

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11:33 a.m. EST

Biden’s age may be hurting him with independents in New Hampshire

By Colby Itkowitz and Dylan Wells

MANCHESTER, N.H. — When Claire Preece went to see Nikki Haley speak this week, the registered independent was still conflicted over whether she would vote in Tuesday’s Republican or Democratic primary. But she knew one thing for sure: Joe Biden is too old to earn her vote again.

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11:13 a.m. EST

Haley’s campaign says there will be ‘no coronation’ for Trump after N.H.

By Maeve Reston

Former U.N. ambassador Nikki Haley prepares to speak to voters during a rally in Derry, N.H., on Sunday. (Melina Mara/The Washington Post)

Though Donald Trump’s lead has been widening in New Hampshire, Haley’s campaign manager Betsy Ankney wrote in a memo Tuesday that Haley will continue fighting on as they look ahead to Super Tuesday: “We aren’t going anywhere.”

 

11:01 a.m. EST

Analysis: Fake Biden robocall fuels calls for AI regulation

By Cristiano Lima-Strong

A wave of misleading robocalls in the New Hampshire primary mimicking the voice of President Biden is rekindling calls for artificial intelligence regulations ahead of the 2024 general election.

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10:44 a.m. EST

When we expect to get New Hampshire primary results

By Mariana Alfaro

Supporters react as former president Donald Trump stops at the Trump campaign office in Manchester, N.H., on Sunday. (Jabin Botsford/The Washington Post)

New Hampshire is hosting the first-in-the-nation primary election Tuesday night, and while this year’s contest comes with a few caveats for Democrats, on the Republican side, the election is expected to run the same way it has for decades.

Polls in the state start to close at 7 p.m. Eastern, with the last closing at 8 p.m. Results should start trickling in soon after polls close.

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10:27 a.m. EST

Why Biden isn’t on the New Hampshire primary ballot

By Amber Phillips

New Hampshire is holding the first-in-the-nation primary elections Tuesday, for both Democrats and Republicans. But the Democratic primary won’t have President Biden on the ballot. Voters will see the names of his 21 primary challengers instead — and space to write in a name.

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10:16 a.m. EST

Analysis: Two weeks ago, New Hampshire seemed close. Not any more.

By Philip Bump

The 2024 Republican presidential nominating contest has echoed the 2016 one in two important ways. First, Donald Trump has led in polling consistently for months. And, second, outside observers have continually speculated about how he might lose that lead, only to see him not do so.

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REPORTING FROM HAMPTON, N.H.

10:01 a.m. EST

By Dylan Wells

Nikki Haley responded Tuesday to a suggestion in a Trump campaign memo that the New Hampshire results could prompt her to exit the race for the GOP nomination.

“I don’t do what he tells me to do,” Haley said of Trump as she visited a polling site. “I’ve never done what he tells me to do.”

Haley served as U.N. ambassador during Trump’s term in the White House.

 

REPORTING FROM HAMPTON, N.H.

9:50 a.m. EST

By Dylan Wells

Campaign reporter

Former U.N. ambassador Nikki Haley said Tuesday that she has fit in well in New Hampshire because voters have attitudes similar to those in her home state of South Carolina.

“I love the fact that Granite Staters wear their feelings on their sleeves,” Haley said at a polling location. “You know exactly what they expect. You know exactly where they stand. … I like the blunt approach of that. New Hampshire and South Carolina, very similar.”

 

REPORTING FROM HAMPTON, N.H.

9:45 a.m. EST

By Dylan Wells

As she visited a polling location on Tuesday, former U.N. ambassador Nikki Haley said, “It’s amazing to get the first six votes” in Dixville Notch, alluding to her sweep in the traditional midnight voting in the tiny township. “It gave us some good energy and momentum.”

New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu (R), who accompanied Haley, acknowledged that the statewide total might not be so lopsided. “We’re not promising that it’s going to be 350,000 to zero, but we’re definitely on track for that,” he joked.

 

9:38 a.m. EST

Photos: Polls open for the New Hampshire primary

By Matt McClain

A poll worker sets up for people to vote in the New Hampshire primary at the Barn at Bull Meadow in Concord, N.H., on Tuesday.

 

9:29 a.m. EST

By Marianne LeVine and Dylan Wells

Both former president Donald Trump and former U.N. ambassador Nikki Haley have watch parties scheduled Tuesday night — Trump in Nashua, N.H., and Haley in Concord, N.H. The candidates have advertised few other events but are making late-hour pitches to voters. Haley is expected to stop by some polling places, while Trump has been doing local media interviews.

 

9:15 a.m. EST

Video: What the polls say about Trump, Haley in New Hampshire

By Michael Cadenhead

What the polls say about Trump, Haley in New Hampshire

2:29

Former president Donald Trump holds a clear lead among voters over former ambassador Nikki Haley going into the Jan. 23 New Hampshire primary. (Video: Michael Cadenhead/The Washington Post)  (See website)

 

9:02 a.m. EST

By Mariana Alfaro

Dixville Notch has the honor of being the first township in New Hampshire to declare the results of its presidential primary race — a tradition that dates back to 1960 — but its votes are not always a reliable predictor of how a candidate will do in the statewide race.

In the 2016 Republican primary, for example, Ohio Gov. John Kasich won all Republican votes in the township. He ended up with less than half the votes that Donald Trump received statewide.

 

8:44 a.m. EST

By Mariana Alfaro

While Donald Trump and Nikki Haley face each other in the New Hampshire primary, President Biden, Vice President Harris and their spouses plan to appear Tuesday at a rally in Manassas, Va., where they will mark the 51st anniversary of Roe v. Wade and talk about efforts by Democrats to reinstate abortion rights nationwide.

 

8:32 a.m. EST

Haley makes final pitch in N.H. as last candidate standing against Trump

By Marianne LeVine, Sabrina Rodriguez and Dylan Wells

On Jan. 22, former U.N. ambassador Nikki Haley addressed a crowd of supporters in Salem, N.H., on the eve of the Republican presidential primaries. (Video: Zoeann Murphy, Jorge Ribas, Reshma Kirpalani/The Washington Post, Photo: Melina Mara/The Washington Post)

MANCHESTER, N.H. — Nikki Haley blitzed through New Hampshire on Monday as the last candidate standing against Donald Trump, urging voters not to take for granted that he will be the Republican presidential nominee as she tried to blunt his momentum on the eve of a critical primary.

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8:19 a.m. EST

By Mariana Alfaro

Former U.N. ambassador Nikki Haley told Fox News’s “Fox & Friends” on Tuesday that she will not drop out of the race if she doesn’t win in New Hampshire. Asked if she thinks it’s a good idea to run against Donald Trump in South Carolina’s upcoming primary, Haley argued it’s not reasonable to decide the GOP nomination after only two states have participated.

“We’ve had 56,000 people vote for Donald Trump and you’re going to say that’s what the country wants?” Haley said, referring to the Iowa caucuses. “That’s not what the country wants.”

 

8:02 a.m. EST

Analysis: What we’re watching tonight in New Hampshire

By Theodoric Meyer and Leigh Ann Caldwell

Donald Trump faces something today he’s never confronted before: a one-on-one primary against a formidable challenger.

Republicans opposed to Trump in 2016 yearned for him to face a single challenger who could defeat him, but it never happened. His last two rivals, Ted Cruz and John Kasich, lasted until May. This time around, now that Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is out, all of Trump’s challengers are gone except for Nikki Haley.

Later Tuesday, we’ll find out whether it makes any difference.

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7:47 a.m. EST

Phillips says he isn’t interested in a No Labels ticket but doesn’t shut the door

By Michael Scherer

MANCHESTER, N.H. — Two days after opening the door to a possible run as the No Labels candidate for president, Rep. Dean Phillips (D-Minn.) tried to close it again Monday, without ruling out the option completely.

 

7:29 a.m. EST

By Mariana Alfaro

Former president Donald Trump’s lead in New Hampshire over former U.N. ambassador Nikki Haley has widened in recent days, according to a Boston Globe-Suffolk University-NBC10 tracking poll released Tuesday morning.

Trump is polling at 60 percent among likely Republican primary voters, while Haley receives 38 percent support.

 

7:25 a.m. EST

 

By Mariana Alfaro

Former U.N. ambassador Nikki Haley swept all votes in the tiny New Hampshire township of Dixville Notch, which opened its polls at midnight on primary day. Emphasis on “tiny” — a total of six votes were cast.

“A great start to a great day in New Hampshire,” Haley said in a statement.

While Dixville Notch gets its voting done early and quickly — a tradition of the Granite State primaries — the results are hardly a reliable predictor of who will finish first in statewide contests.

 

7:15 a.m. EST

By Isaac Arnsdorf

As former president Donald Trump concluded an event Monday night in Laconia, N.H., cued by theme music associated with the QAnon extremist movement, someone in the crowd shouted, “Free the J6ers!” referring to people charged in the Jan. 6, 2021, riot at the U.S. Capitol. Trump pointed and said, “We will.”

 

7:00 a.m. EST

By Isaac Arnsdorf

Former president Donald Trump brought his former rivals turned allies onstage with him on Monday night, calling up Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.), North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum (R) and entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy to help him pump up a crowded hotel function room in Laconia, N.H. The speech was repeatedly interrupted by fossil fuel protesters, leading to escalating taunts from Trump and the crowd, and at least one injury of unclear severity to a bystander caught in the shuffle.

 

6:45 a.m. EST

Analysis: The gamble Republicans are about to take on Trump

By Aaron Blake

Former president Donald Trump steps out to deliver remarks at a campaign rally in Manchester, N.H., on Saturday. (Jabin Botsford/The Washington Post)

Later Tuesday, New Hampshire Republican primary voters could effectively bring the 2024 nominating contest to a close.

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6:30 a.m. EST

Trump aims for decisive blow in N.H. as GOP opposition pins hopes on Haley

By Isaac Stanley-Becker and Sabrina Rodriguez

Former president Donald Trump speaks to supporters in Manchester, N.H., on Sunday. (Jabin Botsford/The Washington Post)

LACONIA, N.H. — Former president Donald Trump entered Tuesday’s first-in-the-nation primary here on the cusp of bringing the race for the Republican nomination to a startlingly early conclusion and steamrolling the dwindling resistance within the party to a rematch against President Biden.

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6:15 a.m. EST

The Campaign Moment: DeSantis’s demise, and the GOP’s distinct time for choosing

By Aaron Blake

 

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, seen here campaigning in Goffstown, N.H., on Friday, suspended his campaign for president on Sunday. (Matt McClain/The Washington Post)

The end of Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis’s campaign has invited plenty of looking back. Few campaigns have featured such promise and so steadily petered out. DeSantis had virtually limitless resources, yet he proved to be an awkward candidate selling a vision that voters had little use for.

In some ways, it calls to mind another Florida governor who led in early primary polls and floundered in the face of Trump: Jeb Bush in 2016.

This is an excerpt from a full story.