the DON JONES INDEX… 

 

GAINS POSTED in GREEN

LOSSES POSTED in RED

 

      12/11/25…   15,583.08

    12/4/25…   15,581.15

    6/27/13...    15,000.00

 

(THE DOW JONES INDEX: 12/11/25... 48,057.75; 12/4/25... 47,882.90; 6/27/13… 15,000.00)

 

LESSON for DECEMBER 11th, 2025 – “WINTER IS ICUMEN IN!”

 

There are now twenty days remaining to Year 2025; days which include the holiday devotions and distractions – so the year might still be redeemed, for some, but, for most Americans, it’s been a long and brutal slog under the fiat of old and brutal slobs as leave the question to be asked, (and, by some, answered) of whether it is worse to be under thumb of a decrepit old King who is either confused and weak (2021 to 2024) or feckless and reckless (2017-20 and 2025, so far).

We have had the partisanship, the turnabouts, the economy (as which was over the top, for the few, under the table, for the rest).  Internationally, the world is wracked by inconsidtent trade wars and forever shootin’ wars... the American adventures in the Mideast may have shuddered to a humiliating close from Baghdad to Kabul, but the suffering and pointlessness drags on in Gaza and Ukraine, whole swaths of Africa and the Caribbean isolated and ignored and the prospect of another forever war looms as we edge closer and closer to military intervention in the Western Hemisphere Venezuela... and Colombia... and, go figure?... Canada?  Neo-Nazis are on the march throughout South America and Europe, engendering Socialist and Communist regimes, if not yet revolutions, in places like New York City and London.  Healthcare will shortly become unaffordable for millions.  Robots are stealing workers’ jobs; artificial intelligence is on the upswing, human intelligence not so much.  Polls show that Generation Z wants crypto for Christmas, despite the infestation of scammers, and while Administrators tout the falling prices of eggs, it’s still worth your life to obtain a cup of morning coffee (which the left-wing virtuecrats hails as fulfillment of their Old Testament embrace of suffering and hatred of pleasure, as noted again and again in the Gospels

And now, not to be overshadowed by the mortal fallacies of puny mortals, Mother Nature has been socking it to America, as to the rest of the world.  Here, we have blizzards and record freezing temperatures in the East, flooding and landslides in the West.  This has inspired the title of this Lesson, which was the response by another generation’s favorite cranky old cultural paleo-Nazi, Ezra Pound, to respond to the venerable 12th century “cuckoo song”, (adopted since by the likes of the “Wicker Man”) with his cranky old take on the verse... declaiming: “Winter is icummen in; Lhude (loudly) sing Goddamm!”  (See both versions as ATTACHMENT ONE)

The Fox weatherpeople (ATTACHMENT TWO) lodged their dissent against conventional seasonal knowledge by claiming that winter began on December 1st and will end on February 28th (or, presumably, February 29th in leap years).  “The reason behind the discrepancy is that weather experts follow what’s called meteorological seasons, while others use the astronomical calendar to signify the change,” wrote Fox forecaster Andrew Wulfeck, who interviewed three climatologists... Adam Klotz, Ari Sarsalari and Jane Minar... who contend that, while calendars across the Northern Hemisphere say winter will begin on Dec. 21, meteorologists declare that the start of the season happens three weeks earlier on Dec. 1.

“The reason behind the discrepancy is that weather experts follow what’s called meteorological seasons, while others use the astronomical calendar to signify the change.  Meteorologists and climatologists break down the seasons based on when temperatures typically change, not the status of Earth’s rotation.”

NOAA says meteorological seasons were developed because of the ever-changing dates produced by the astronomical calendar.  “Meteorological winter starts on Dec. 1 and runs through Feb. 28, which tends to be a better fit for the coldest time of the year than astronomical winter.”

Current forecasts (below) mostly agree that the coming winter will be colder than normal, but not nearly as frigid as when USA Today (December 1, ATTACHMENT THREE) took note of that record-cold January nearly half a century ago when the cold wave of January 1977 produced the only known trace of snow in the greater Miami area of Florida ever reported.

"The 1970s were indeed a cold decade by historical standards, especially the late 1970s," said meteorologist Robert Henson of Yale Climate Connections. "Over the last century (from 1925 through 2024), two of the three coldest U.S. years were 1978 and 1979. The coldest U.S. winter on record (going back to 1895) was 1978-79."

The winter of 1978-79 stands out as the coldest US winter since accurate records began in the late 1800s.

Human-created factors may well have played a part in climate then and now, according to Hanson, who reasoned that the slight global cooling from the 1940s to 1970s was largely induced by the boom in industry after World War II, especially in the United States and Europe. "Before we had environmental controls, the postwar factories and power plants spewed so much sun-blocking pollution into the air that it appears to have cooled the regional and global atmosphere."

Starting in the 1970s, pollution controls have given us cleaner air, but we're also blocking less sunlight. That reduced sun blockage has teamed up with human-produced greenhouse gases to warm the global climate, especially in places like the United States and Europe, where the mid-century air pollution was especially bad.

FEARS OF AN ONCOMING ICE AGE

Articles in the ‘70s, mostly in popular magazines, spoke of an impending ice age, according to Rutgers University’s “distinguished professor and snow expert” David Robinson. "Paleoclimate studies at that time were showing that interglacials over the past million years were generally about 10,000 years in length and the one we are in has gone on for about 10,000 years. Thus, it seemed possible that over coming millennia (note, tens of thousands of years), that the earth might transition into another glacial maximum in 100,000 years (or) so."

However, he said, "this certainly wasn’t a sign of an immediately impending ice age!”  In fact, it was also beginning to be better recognized that humans were having an impact on climate that should begin to show a global warming in decades ahead.

"So, you had a lot of info out there that could be interpreted (or misinterpreted! Robinson said) in several ways, (t)hough it is safe to say that no serious climatologist at that time was afraid of an ice age emerging for upcoming generations and well beyond."

Still and all, the “Severe Weather Europe” analysis of the 2025/2026 winter snow weason (published back in March, 2025 and noted as ATTACHMENT FOUR) forecast a strong cold and snow pattern across the United States and Canada.

Through a series of charts, graphs and maps on the SWE website here (the computers that DJI use do not allow reproduction of graphics) it “just happens” (according to SWE) that a colder weather pattern is developing right at the start of the meteorological winter.

“A large area of strong low-pressure anomaly is forecast over Canada and the east-central United States,” one SWE map displays. “This is the core of the Polar Vortex, and also causes higher pressure to build over Europe.”

The low-pressure Polar Vortex core brings a sustained cold air flow into the central and eastern United States and southern Canada. At the same time, a westerly to southwesterly flow is established over Europe, bringing mild conditions and unsettled conditions over the northwestern parts.  The included charts, graphs and maps indicate less snowfall and warmer temperatures across the Old World.

“Over North America, the southern United States shows below-average snow depth over the entire Winter average.”  But the latest (2025) forecast below is starting to show more snowfall over the whole northern United States and the entire southern half of Canada. “This can provide a substantial source of colder air over Canada and also a fixed corridor into the United States.”

Month by month, the December snowfall forecast shows less snow cover over the southern parts of the United States but also shows a substantial increase in snow cover, “with above-normal snowfall amounts forecast across the northern half of the United States” (as is now transpiring across the upper Midwest), but limited over the Northeast.  (Data is being used from the European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasts... ECMWF... an “independent intergovernmental agencies” that predicts weather trends through its supercomputers in Germany, Italy and the U.K.)

“The January snow forecast indicates greater snowfall over the northern United States, the Mid-Atlantic states, and Canada. Less snowfall is forecast over the south-central United States and over deep southeastern Canada. But we do see that the snowfall deficit over the eastern United States is much smaller than over California and the southwest overall.”

The February snowfall forecast shows the main snowfall area to pull more to the north, looking to shift more into a La Niρa-style winter. “We see more snowfall over the northern United States and the upper Midwest, over the far northeast, and into southeastern Canada. This month is still far in the forecast range, so it can still start to increase the snowfall amounts with each run.

“The March snowfall forecast shows the main snow area pulling back north slightly in early Spring, with a now stronger deficit seen over the Plains, the Midwest, and the northeastern United States. More snowfall is still forecast over southern Canada and into the northern United States.”

Doubling down on forecasting, SWE also cited data from UKMO (the United Kingdom Met... formerly meteorological... Office) which is defined as a “grid” as opposed to “spectral” model.  The BBC reports that they believe it to be less accurate than ECMWF, but SWE includes its maps, graphs and maps to corroborate the continental agency’s findings.

In our experience, writes SWE’s Andrej Flis, “UKMO tends to be less optimistic about snowfall than ECMWF.”  And, as expected, UKMO projections show a higher probability and accumulation of the white stuff in the USA than does ECMWF.  For December, the variance is sharper in the Pacific Northwest (which, indeed, has seen record precipitation but, at least in the more highly populated and impacted coastal cities. taking the form of rain... and flooding.

The January and February UKMO projections continue to show an abundance of snow, even in the American southeast with the associated map showing light snow as far south as Louisiana.  (The only below-average snowfall is in the southwest and northeast.)

Google’s AI Overview (ATTACHMENT FIVE) predicts a warmer-than-average 2025-2026 winter for the South, Southwest, and parts of the Northeast, while the Northwest, Northern Rockies, and Great Lakes region are expected to be colder than average. Precipitation is likely to be above average in the northern tier, including the Pacific Northwest, Great Lakes, and Ohio River Valley, with a risk of drier-than-average conditions in the far Southeast. 

Reality is producing colder temperatures all over the East while concurring with the precipitation dearth and surplus (although some much needed rain arrived in Alabama, Georgia and Florida this week).

The Googlers also predicted that a weak La Niρa would be expected to continue through spring “but might be less impactful than usual.” 

 

Powder Magazine, whose readers tend to be skiers, snowboards and a few schoolchildren on the prowl for projections of snow days, used the (YouTube) Direct Weather and Open Snow forecasts to venture that America will have a divided forecast... warm and wet West, but cold and snowy in the East.  (November 17, 2025, ATTACHMENT SIX)

According to Direct Weather’s forecast, “California and parts of southern Oregon are in for a pretty warm winter. The further south you look, the more confidence there is that these places, as well as parts of southern Utah and New Mexico will also see above average temperatures.

“In contrast, it’s looking like a large portion of the US starting as far west as the upper corner of Washington state and as far south as parts of Texas will have below average temperatures. These below normal temps increase in confidence east of the Rockies and even more so north of the gulf coast line.

“The highest confidence in below-average temps lingers over the midwest and interior northeastern states, which are historically, pretty darn cold.”

The snowfall forecast predicted by Direct Weather is fairly in-line with their general precipitation forecast. California and the southwestern US are seeing chances of below average snowfall, due to a weak La Niρa pattern.  Possibilities of above average snowfall “start as far south as the Oregon/California border, with increasing confidence into Northern Washington. That confidence increases significantly the further east and north we look...” a forecast that has worn well over the first week in December – although warmer temperatures have deluged the Northwest in rain, flooding and landslides, although massive snow in the mountains are likely to cause some drastic events during and after the spring snowmelt.

The Northwest flooding was borne out Monday as ABC reported the inexorable “atmospheric river” (ATTACHMENT SEVEN) set to bring days of heavy rain to Washington, Oregon and Idaho, with a flood watch in effect for more than 9 million people, and landslides and debris flows also possible.

More than 10 inches of rain have fallen so far this week across parts of western Washington and Oregon; river levels may reach major flood stage tomorrow, and the rain will continue through the week and into the weekend. 

The AI Overview in Attachment Five, above, as predicted high to record precipitation across the northern tier (rain in the Northwest, snow in the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes) has proven out... wetter conditions drenching the Pacific Northwest, Northern Plains, Great Lakes region, and Ohio River Valley.

The weak La Niρa, reportedly expected to continue but possibly transition to ENSO-neutral by March 2026, may still mean that “typical La Niρa effects might be less impactful than usual.” 

 

Arctic air masses have descended into the US, and a disrupted polar vortex will keep the nation in the freezer at times deeper into December, the CNN forecasters forecast (December 4th, ATTACHMENT EIGHT) with “more than 200 million people (waking) up to freezing temperatures this week as the coldest air of the season spills across the Plains, Midwest, Great Lakes and into the Northeast” in the wake of the first of many winter storms to sweep across the country.

Low temperature reached the double-digits below zero as far south as northern Iowa a week ago, with a few locations breaking or tying daily record lows:

·         Aberdeen, South Dakota: minus 18 degrees (tie)

·         Spencer, Iowa: minus 17 degrees

·         Waterloo, Iowa: minus 10 degrees

·         Sioux City, Iowa: minus 9 degrees (tie)

·         Cedar Rapids, Iowa: minus 8 degrees

“Afternoon temperatures across much of the Midwest (were) stuck in the teens — 20 to 30 degrees lower than normal for early December.” Highs rising only into the lower to middle teens were forecast to be among the coldest on record for December 4th in Milwaukee and Green Bay, Wisconsin, and Des Moines, Iowa.

 

BLAME IT ON THE POLAR VORTEX

“The cold and winter storms hitting the US this week – and forecast to occur over the next couple of weeks – can be tied to the disruption of the polar vortex that started in late November, researchers tell CNN.

“The polar vortex is a circular current of strong winds high in the atmosphere over the Arctic that keeps brutally cold air locked up in that region. Recently, though, it weakened and slid southward towards the midlatitudes, spilling cold, Arctic air into heavily populated areas.

“This can create stormier conditions, said Andrea Lopez Lang, a meteorologist at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, as that cold air from up north collides with relatively warmer air.

“And the weak polar vortex also means a wavier jet stream. These are the wind currents that flow west-to-east across the Northern Hemisphere. A wavy jet stream can give people weather whiplash, said Judah Cohen, a meteorologist at MIT.”

“We are still about three weeks away from the official start of winter,” wrote Briana Waxman, Chris Dolce and CNN's Andrew Freedman back on Thursday... now, with ten days remaining to the meteorological  redline, “Mother Nature is off to quite a head start.”

Also, a week ago, Washington D.C. “activated an Extreme Cold Alert on Thursday while Iowa and Minnesota reign(ed) as the first to set record-breaking low temperatures,” according to Foxies Olivia Stephens and Alexandra Myers (ATTACHMENT NINE).  “An Extreme Cold Alert occurs when the National Weather Service (NWS) predicts temperatures that will pose an immediate risk to residents.”

Like CNN, Fox Weather blamed the Polar Vortex sweeping across the U.S. and pushing colder air south towards Canada and the U.S. which, “on top of a La Niρa winter, has caused (many) to see typical temperatures for early February (appearing) in December.”  With the Midwest bearing the brunt of brutal cold last week, “portions of the region feeling -28 to -31 degrees due to wind chill included the cities of Des Moines, Cedar Rapids, Waterloo, Sioux City, Cedar Rapids” and Bob Zimmerman’s old hometown of Hibbing, Minnesota and there’s more, more, more to come...

There a hard, hard, hard snow... gonna come.

But that will make at leas a few people happy... the skiers, boarders and snow bunnies whose Gospels are the Snow Brains and Weather Brains forecasts.

Snow Brains (November 24th, ATTACHMENT TEN) speculated on what “winter 2025-26 may bring to skiers and riders” divided into temperatures and precipitation and sorted out by regions.

Their “Snowiest/Wettest Areas” included “(t)he Northern Rockies, Northern Great Plains, Upper Mississippi Valley, Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and parts of the Pacific Northwest and western mainland Alaska...” all of which were reported “favored to have above-normal precipitation, increasing snowfall potential in these ski regions.”

For the best snow this winter, the Sno-Brainers recommended “focus(ing) on the Northern Rockies (Montana and Idaho), the Northern High Plains, the Upper Mississippi Valley, the Great Lakes region, and the Ohio Valley,” while “(t)he Pacific Northwest and Sierra Nevada (also) have potential for solid snowfall, especially early to mid-winter.”

The Weather Brainers (November 20th, ATTACHMENT ELEVEN) opened their prognostically propagative precipitation toolboxes and removed a La Niρa and Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) winter forecast (also summarized by region) that summarized outlooks as follows...

TEMPERATURES...

“Above-normal temperatures across much of the East Coast, Southeast, Gulf Coast, Texas, the Southwest, and California. The winter temperature outlook leans towards below-normal temperatures from the Upper Mississippi Valley and Northern to Central Great Plains west to parts of the Pacific Northwest. An increased chance of below (above)-normal temperatures is forecast for southeastern (northwestern) Alaska.”

PRECIPITATION    

“Elevated below-normal precipitation probabilities for portions of the Mid-Atlantic, Southeast, Gulf Coast, Texas, the Southwest, and California. Above-normal precipitation is favored from the Upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes south to the Ohio Valley along with the Northern Great Plains, Northern Rockies, and parts of the Pacific Northwest. An increased chance of below (above)-normal precipitation is forecast for southeastern (northwestern) Alaska.”

WINTER ‘ROUND the WORLD...

Harsh weather is and will, by no means, be confined to North America.

Euronews (December 6th, ATTACHMENT TWELVE) surmised that “a weak polar vortex could make for a harsh winter in Germany. Experts are currently still divided, but warn it could be particularly frosty after Christmas.”

The last time such a PoVtx (also described as a “meridional weather pattern”) led to a winter of the century in Germany was in 1978/79.  “Back then, people experienced heavy snowfall, snowstorms and unusually low temperatures.”

“The current weather models paint a generally mild picture for the days around Christmas albeit with isolated cold outliers. This is also confirmed by the 42-day trend from wetter.de.

“The European Weather Centre's long-term model also indicates a cooling, but only after the holidays. Only the American National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is expecting significantly higher temperatures on average for the month. However, as this average is strongly influenced by the next two weeks, this does not contradict a possible subsequent cooling.”

In the MidEast, however, warmer temperatures combined with the allegedly “tropical” storm “Byron” caused emergency and rescue authorities are preparing for the rainfall wave now bringing flash floods and strong winds to many locations across the region, according to Assaf Golan of Israel Hayom, (December 8th, ATTACHMENT THIRTEEN).

Israel’s Nature and Parks Authority has issued a severe warning ahead of the expected rainfall wave, “emphasizing serious concern about flash floods in the Dead Sea streams, the Judea Desert, and the Jordan Valley. According to the announcement, there is an absolute prohibition on entering stream channels on foot or by vehicle until the water level drops completely due to danger to life. In addition, the authority emphasized that even approaching a stream bank during a flood is dangerous due to the risk of bank collapse.”

With Tel Aviv, Jerusalem, even Bethleham under Mother Nature’s gun, any reprise of the First Noel might be subject to what the Germans (above) called: “White Christmas or baby Jesus in the mud?”

At least, Israelis can console themselves, it will be an even more oppressive and dangerous winter for those Hamas, Hezbollah, Al Qaida and ISIS terrorists as now appear to be trapped in their tunnels, beneath the ground.

Their healthcare agency Magon David Adom (MDA) issued warnings to avoid using elevators during floods, not to enter underground parking lots during heavy rain, and evacuate underground residential areas if there is danger of water penetration.  MDA also recommended “strict adherence to safe driving on rainy days, maintaining body heat for at-risk populations, and maintaining heating stove functionality. In addition, they noted that clothes should not be dried on heating stoves and proper ventilation must be ensured when operating them.

“The organization warned against slipping in places where ice or snow accumulates, and emphasized the importance of periodic checking of electrical and heating devices. Additionally, the public was asked to maintain contact with elderly family members and ensure they are prepared for the harsh weather conditions.”

And, if possible, conditions are even worse in South Asia where floods from tropical storms and monsoon rains have triggered landslides and flash floods from the rainforests of Indonesia's western Sumatra island to highland plantations in Sri Lanka.  (CBS, December 8th, ATTACHMENT FOURTEEN)

"Everything is lacking, especially medical personnel. We are short on doctors," Muzakir Manaf, the governor of Indonesia's Aceh province, told reporters late Sunday.

Indonesia's national disaster mitigation agency (BNPB) said 961 people in Aceh, North Sumatra and West Sumatra had been killed, while 293 were missing. More than a million people were displaced, the agency said.

Sri Lanka's military meanwhile deployed thousands of extra troops to aid recovery efforts after a devastating cyclone caused a wave of destruction and killed 635 people.

Army chief Lasantha Rodrigo said 38,500 security personnel had been deployed to boost recovery and clean-up operations in flood-affected and landslide-hit areas, nearly doubling the initial deployment.

"Since the disaster, security forces have been able to rescue 31,116 people who were in distress," Rodrigo said in a statement.

Sri Lankan President Anura Kumara Dissanayake “unveiled a recovery package, offering 10 million rupees ($33,000) for victims to buy land in safer areas and rebuild,” and for “livelihood support and cash assistance to replace kitchen utensils and bedding and to buy food.”

Dissanayake has said the government “cannot fund reconstruction alone and has appealed for foreign assistance, including from the International Monetary Fund.” 

These afflicted countries, CBS reported, at least have one advantage that the Germans and Israelis lack... elephants.

In Pidie Jaya, a district in Indonesia's Aceh badly affected by the floods, four elephants from a nearby training centre picked up large pieces of rubble with their trunks and helped shift stuck vehicles.

"We brought four elephants to clear the debris from the houses of the communities that were swept away by the flood," Hadi Sofyan, the head of a local conservation agency, told reporters.

Lacking support from Indonesian or Indian elephants, as well as from the elephants in the United States... the gnomes of the IMF are dunning Ukraine to repay them a debt of more than $170 million on Tuesday, December 9, as reported by the RIA Novosti news agency, referring to the payment schedule of the international lender... Ukrainians can now add the weather to a trove of tribulations faced by the International Rescue Committee (IRC) in providing support to millions of people affected by the war – even as Mad Vlad Putin praises Trump’s latest pivot and continues targeting power grids and people to further prosecute his insane goal of world conquest (which, this week, has been raising apprehensions and resolve in Poland), while President Zelenskyy lobbies EU members to step into the mud where Washington fears (or declines) to tread. 

This winter, we are providing cash assistance to help people purchase blankets, coats, heaters and fuel for stoves,” the IRC appealed in not-so-subtle fundraising postings (dating from December, 2022 to the most recent, November 20, 2025: ATTACHMENT FIFTEEN) so Ukrainians can stay safe through the coldest months. “Our medical teams continue to respond where support is needed most—from frontline villages to remote communities—ensuring that women and children, the elderly and people living with chronic conditions get the essential care they deserve.”

 

HOW COLD IS WINTER IN UKRAINE?

“Winters in Ukraine are cold and snowy,” the IRC advises, “with temperatures often plunging well below freezing. From December to March, average temperatures range between 23 degrees Fahrenheit (-4.8 C) and 36 degrees Fahrenheit (2 C). In some regions where the IRC works, temperatures regularly drop as low as -5 degrees Fahrenheit (-21.6 C).

“Many of the nearly 3.7 million people displaced within Ukraine are living in collective shelters that lack adequate winter protection. On the frontlines, families live in damaged homes, often without reliable heating or electricity. 

“Damage to Ukraine’s power grid has resulted in daily blackouts that can last up to 20 hours, disrupting both electricity and water supplies. Thousands of attacks on hospitals, schools and other essential facilities have also been reported.

“Limited electricity and communication services have also made it more difficult for families to take care of their parents and grandparents. At times, they may not even know if their family member is still alive.”

 

Across America and around the world, the severe and early winter is straining pocketbooks, as well as physiques... even in far off, rich but troubled China where a La Niρa cooling of the Pacific Ocean’s surface, could provoke a colder winter across many regions of China, “rais(ing) the risk of gas shortages,” opined Morgan Stanley analyst Jack Lu.  (Bloomberg Business, ATTACHMENT SIXTEEN)

 

CHINA GAS THREAT

“As a result, gas consumption could spike along with gas price hikes for both wholesale and retail,” Lu wrote – a scenario that lines up with China’s official winter forecast, which is predicting below-normal temperatures across the country’s south and northeast.

Bloomberg... also noting that odds of extreme cold this winter in the US, Asia and parts of Europe are climbing, threatening to boost energy bills for consumers already grappling with high costs and economic uncertainty, citing “emerging signs” that the polar vortex, “the girdle of winds around the Arctic, could weaken and allow frigid air to spill southward. 

 

EUROPE COLD RISK

While forecasters and major weather models are projecting a mild winter on average in Europe, there is growing evidence that the relatively temperate conditions could be punctured by frequent cold spells this winter, especially in northern and central Europe.

A growing number of simulations from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, which is widely considered to have the most consistently reliable global weather models, show that outcome.  European gas prices have swung in recent weeks as traders assess the potential intensity of the chill. While strong seaborne imports have helped to top up storage, a cold snap earlier in the heating season has already caused some countries to tap into inventories.

 

US CHILL

For the US, winter will likely come in a bit cooler than normal and definitely colder (and more expensively) than last year, says Matt Rogers, president of commercial forecaster Commodity Weather Group. 

“The northern tier of the country from the Pacific Northwest to central New England will likely be cooler than average, with the highest chance of below-normal temperatures in the northern Great Plains and Great Lakes, CWG predicts. The South will probably get near-normal or slightly warmer-than-average temperatures, including Texas, which saw its power grid collapse in 2021 when a breakdown in the polar vortex unleashed a winter storm that killed more than 200 people.”

Homes in the Midwest will likely spend 2% more on gas heating this winter, the US Energy Information Administration predicts. “The cost of electric heat – used mainly in the US South – could rise about 4%, the most in three years, the EIA said,” although the jump is almost entirely the result of higher retail power prices as AI drives a demand surge.

“Intense cold would also put some US winter wheat crops at risk. Plants can be damaged by frigid temperatures if they aren’t insulated under a layer of snow. This could cut yields early next year” and, again, raise prices.

ACCUWeather’s forecast at the beginning of the month (ATTACHMENT SEVENTEEN: December 2nd, updated December 5th) that the vortex would bring a “triple whammy” of Arctic cold to the US.

Taking up a position near Hudson Bay, Canada, the first whammy “will direct rounds of Arctic air southward from the North Pole to parts of the central and eastern United States through the middle of the month.”  Another cold blast is likely next week and a third the week after that," explained AccuWeather’s Lead Long-Range Meteorologist Paul Pastelok.

Travelers on highways and by air should be prepared for potential delays, ACCU Weather warned. Some school delays, early dismissals or cancellations are also possible.

 

POLAR VORTEX or ARCTIC BLAST?

Google’s AI Overview upon these topics (ATTACHMENT EIGHTEEN) defines the polar vortex as “a massive, high-altitude swirl of frigid air over the poles, a normal winter phenomenon that usually keeps cold air contained.  An Arctic blast “is the resulting event on the ground—a surge of that bitter cold air spilling south into mid-latitudes when the vortex weakens and becomes wobbly.

“Think of the vortex as the giant freezer door and the Arctic blast as the icy wind that escapes when the door briefly opens or cracks.”

In further differentiation, the Googlebot expands its explanations of the both.

Polar Vortex

·         What it is: A large, counter-clockwise circulation of cold air high in the atmosphere (stratosphere/upper troposphere) around the Arctic and Antarctic.

·         Normal behavior: Strong and stable, keeping the coldest air locked over the poles.

·         Disruption: Weakens, stretches, or wobbles, often due to warming in the stratosphere or strong storms below, allowing lobes of frigid air to dip south. 

Arctic Blast

·         What it is: The impact felt on the ground—a rapid, intense influx of extremely cold, dry Arctic air.

·         Cause: A disrupted, weakened polar vortex sends the polar jet stream south, carrying the vortex's frigid air mass with it.

·         Characteristics: Can bring snow, ice, and dangerously low temperatures, lasting from days to weeks. 

Key Difference

·         Polar Vortex: The source or system (the upper-air weather pattern).

·         Arctic Blast: The result or event (the cold outbreak on the surface). 

 

How should people prepare for the one, above, or the other?

The kind and useful doctors at the Great Falls (Montana) Clinic Hospital know a thing or two about cold weather, and they have offered up the following advice (see details as ATTACHMENT NINETEEN)

Recognize How Your Body Fights the Cold

Protect Yourself from Life-Threatening Cold Weather Conditions, AND...

Boost Your Immune Defenses During Winter

Keep Your Airways Clear in Frigid Temperatures

Guard Your Heart Against Cold Weather Stress

Stop Hypothermia Before It Starts, and

Prevent Frostbite Damage to Your Extremities

“Understanding these cold-weather health risks empowers individuals to take preventive measures, recognize early warning signs, and respond appropriately to protect themselves and others during the winter months.”  If you experience symptoms of cold-related illness or injury, prompt medical attention is essential – if, while in Montana, at the Clinic/Hospital or, if not, at your favorite local sawbones.

 

USA Today (ATTACHMENT TWENTY) solicited cardiologists to advise and consent (or not) upon the do’s and donuts of shoveling winter’s snow when the flakes began to fall, last week.

"Shoveling a little snow off your sidewalk may not seem like hard work. However, the strain of heavy snow shoveling may be as or even more demanding on the heart than taking a treadmill stress test," Dr. Barry Franklin, a former American Heart Association volunteer, said in a news release.

Between 1990 and 2006, nearly 200,000 adults were treated in emergency rooms for snow-shovel-related accidents, with more than 1,600 deaths reported in that time frame, according to the American Journal of Emergency Medicine.  Dr. Franklin asked (and, in the Attachment, answered these questions about winter labors)...

HOW OLD IS TOO OLD TO SHOVEL SNOW?

HOW DOES SNOW SHOVELING STRAIN THE HEART?

HOW DOES SNOW SHOVELING STRAIN THE HEART?... and

HOW TO REDUCE INJURY WHILE SNOW BLOWING

Of course, there are some people who don’t have to worry about the above... the homeless.  These, instead of worrying about heart attacks, have to worry about freezing to death – according to the Google AI Overview.  (ATTACHMENT TWENTY ONE)

“Homeless hypothermia deaths are a significant, preventable tragedy where people without shelter freeze to death due to lack of adequate housing and resources,” contend the Googlies... “with hundreds dying annually in the U.S., especially older adults, exacerbated by substance use, mental health issues, and barriers to shelter access, leading to rising death tolls even in milder winter conditions.”

And, as with the snow shoveling, they have questions and... believe them or don’t... answers.  These address...

CAUSES & CONTRIBUTING FACTORS:  Answer, of course is “lack of shelter”,,, whether through the housing market or charity, as well as a variety of personal sins which, some say, justify their sufferings or death.

STATISTICS & TRENDS:

Deaths in California doubled 2016-2023 and this was mostly coastly, as opposed to Montana.  Weaklings!

IMPACT:

Hypothermia occurs when the body's core temperature drops below 95°F (35°C).

SOLUTIONS & CHALLENGES:

Duh... homes?

The National Coalition for the Homeless (ATTACHMENT TWENTY TWO) focused on deaths in Sacramento, CA... not exactly a hotbed of cold air... after making a “tragic decision to not open a warming center” during a January thunderstorm “hit the region with 70 mph winds and flooding that resulted in the death of at least five people living outside.”

They, too, asked a variation of the Q&A’s which might be called “problems and solutions” and the solution to the Sacramento deaths, NCH deduced, was to open more warming centers.

Presumably elevated, so as to minimize the risk of drowning.

City Manager, Howard Chan justified his action to the Sacramento Bee (by) saying that his fear was (that) “the warming center would become a Covid hotspot and spread the disease throughout the community.”

Donald Whitehead Executive Director of the NCH said that, for example, “if a couple, lets call them Mary and Joseph, shows up at City Hall and asks for a place to stay out of the elements, cities have a moral obligation to open up their doors and not force Mary to sleep in a barn exposed to the elements especially during inclement weather.”

As temperatures plunged in Washington D.C., NCH recommended five tips for Winter Services Planning – these being:

1.    Increased Outreach...

2.    Stock up on Blankets and Warm Clothing... 

3.    Emergency Transportation...

4.    Day Centers...

5.    Low Barrier Nighttime Shelter – meaning that “people who are violent or under the influence can be separated, so long as they can remain warm.”

The NCH also posted suggestions on ways for the homeless, and others, to avoid hyperthermia (overheating) when next summer icumens in.

See details at the Attachment.

Another AI Overview (ATTACHMENT TWENTY THREE) detailed deaths, so far, for what is shaping up as an unusually frigid December.  Homeless people froze to death in Albany, New York; in Toledo, Ohio; in the Chicago burbs; Baltimore, Ohio and Western Massachusetts.

Advocates (like NCH) continue to stress that “while warming centers are essential, more permanent housing solutions and resources are needed to prevent these deaths annually.”

 

Estimating and predicting deadly winter weather has become harder, CNN reported Wednesday (ATTACHMENT TWENTY FOUR) because of a shortage of “meteorologists, hydrologists and other specialized staff” following MAGA layoffs that cut 550 staffers by DOGE.  NWS has reportedly received permission to hire back or add a total of 450 people but, to date, only 80 final job offers have been accepted.

“The administration is trying to put out a fire that they started,” said Rick Spinrad, who led NOAA during the Biden administration. “The 450 hires for the NWS won’t even cover the full shortfall.”

“Also, let’s not lose sight of the fact that even if NWS could hire 450 people tomorrow,” he said, “there is little chance that they would have the centuries of experience held by their predecessors.”

“I worry that timing, accuracy, and delivery of forecasts, watches, and warnings will degrade to the point of risking lives and property,” Spinrad said.

“Additional NWS offices don’t have enough staff to launch weather balloons at the standard rate of twice a day, instead going down to one daily balloon launch or missing them altogether. Right now, there are nine NWS offices that are launching balloons at a cadence of once per day, a NOAA official (who requested anonymity) said.

As another cruel, cold week began, CBS reported that the winter weather alerts in the East would be imposed on “18 million people across (the) West and Midwest”  (December 6th, ATTACHMENT TWENTY FIVE) as latenite TV weatherpeople said that the cold and wet weather would continue.

The National Weather Service predicted moderate to heavy snow over parts of the Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley last Saturday night with the Pacific Northwest pummeled by a series of Pacific systems arriving late Sunday into Monday, “bringing widespread heavy rain to western Washington and Oregon,” said CBS Meteorologist Andrew Kozak.

NBC on Tuesday morning (ATTACHMENT TWENTY SIX) reported that an embedded blast of Arctic air “will bring temperatures 10 to 20 degrees Fahrenheit below average to all regions east of the Mississippi River” for this entire week... and beyond (with another surge of cold air moves in Friday).

“As much as 4 to 6 inches of snowfall is expected in Duluth, Green Bay and western Michigan. Up to 2 inches will hit Minneapolis, Madison, Milwaukee and Detroit.”

Minneapolis is forecast to be right on the line separating light snow from heavier snow (and freezing President Trump’s despicable Somali* aliens), so any shift in the forecast could bring higher totals into that metro area Tuesday.

The atmospheric river will continue to fuel torrential rain throughout the Northwest, with up to 12 inches possible in local parts of the southern Cascades.  Portland can expect 3 to 5 inches of the wet stuff, and Seattle could see 1 to 2 inches.

Yesterday morning’s Newsweek (ATTACHMENT TWENTY SEVEN) timed and regionalized the rain, snow and freezing temperatures; prompting the National Weather Service (NWS) to warn residents of diverse states in the Northwest, Great Lakes and environs from Washington State to Washington D.C. to “plan on slippery road conditions,” especially during morning and evening commutes.

Moving northwest to east across the country as of yesterday, a closer watch included “up to seven inches of snow in Hyder, Alaska and a chill-induced blizzard in Washington State; 2 feet of snow and 70 mph winds” in the Absaroka and Beartooth Mountains that border Wyoming and Montana; eight inches of lake effect snow in Michigan, five more in Chicago; more white stuff in Kentucky and Tennessee moving east to the Carolinas and Virginia coast where the NWS warned: “Persons should delay all travel if possible. If travel is absolutely necessary, drive with extreme caution and be prepared for sudden changes in visibility.

“Leave plenty of room between you and the motorist ahead of you, and allow extra time to reach your destination. Avoid sudden braking or acceleration, and be especially cautious on hills or when making turns. Make sure your car is winterized and in good working order.”

A weathermercial from the Service Master home and business repair and rehab people included another of those winter weather Q&As – this with an emphasis on prevent damage from the cold, flooding and snowfall.

“The Polar Vortex is a regular occurrence in the United States; (t)he term ‘vortex’ refers to the counterclockwise flow of air that helps keep the colder air near the Poles.

“Many times, during winter in the northern hemisphere, the polar vortex will expand, sending cold air southward.”  In extreme cases, such as the February 2021 polar vortex event caused by Winter Storm Uri, effects “lasted ten days for most, but the impact was felt for several weeks in areas, such as Oklahoma and Texas.”

Property damage resulting from the PV may include...

ROOF DAMAGE leading to “snow or ice dams” and toxic mold;

FROZEN PIPES leading to burstings such as in the thousands of Uri cataclysm.

Do-it-yourselvers can cut down on damage leading to expensive repairs (which Service Master will be happy to undertake) by the following...

INSULATING PIPES, opening cabinet doors to allow warm air to circulate pipes and letting water drip from faucets served by exposed pipes;

KNOW WHERE and HOW TO USE YOUR MAIN WATER SHUT-OFF VALVE;

BUY A BACK-UP GENERATOR because, while “losing power is never convenient”, it “could be catastrophic during frigid temperatures”;

HEAT YOUR BUILDING even if unoccupied, to at least 55°F.  “Losing power is never convenient, but it could be catastrophic during frigid temperatures”;

MANAGE SNOW & ICE which means shoveling (see Attachment Twenty, above) and, for businesses, keep your parking lot salted to prevent accidents that result in legal damages.

 

“Extreme winter weather can wreak havoc on your property and your employees,” so SM recommends a Pre-Loss Agreement before the fact (probably too late, already) as well as repairs after.  Unlike many Joneses, they’re looking forward to more of the same until April Fool’s Day brings out the cuckoos.

 

And for some same Joneses... especially those living below the Mason-Dixon line... winter snow, if only light and brief, brings joy to worlds, too.  There will be skiing, for mountain people, sledding for the rest; snowball fights, holiday light and yard displays and... at the summit of beauty and love... a White Christmas!

Fun forecast facts from USA Today (prepared on Tuesday, ATTACHMENT TWENTY NINE) include NOAA’s average of “38% of the contiguous 48 states (having) an inch of snow on the ground on Christmas Day, according to 21 years of data.”

Since 2003, those percentages have varied widely from year to year, “from only 17.6% in 2023 to a whopping 63% of the contiguous U.S. in 2009, according to Weather.com.”

USA Today predicts the highest likelihood of a White Christmas being in Alaska, of course, also “Minnesota, Maine. upstate New York, the Allegheny Mountains of Pennsylvania and West Virginia and practically anywhere in Idaho.”  And of course, the Rockies or the Sierra Nevada Mountains.

Some of the cities already having snow on the ground include Minneapolis, Green Bay, Buffalo, and Burlington, Vermont, according to AccuWeather.

BLAME BING?

USA Today’s Doyle Rice reports the USA's fascination with a white Christmas “dates to 1942, when Bing Crosby first crooned the wistful song in the film "Holiday Inn." Written by Irving Berlin, the song's lyrics bring out a romanticized image of Christmases past, "just like the ones I used to know." A second movie – White Christmas, also with Crosby – came out in 1954.”

 

USA Today also published another go-round of White Christmas lore and expectations – this by Jeanine Santucci following Thanksgiving weekend (ATTACHMENT THIRTY) – as asked:

WHY DO MAJOR U.S. CITIES HAVE LOW WHITE CHRISTMAS ODDS?

They chose not to answer, but this LESSON will guesstimate that 1) Even in the North, many major cities are coastal, meaning less likelihood of the white stuff (if, however, more rain), and 2) Urban areas tend to generate and retain warmth from home and business heating, vehicular traffic and just the prevelance of perspirating people roaming everywhere, not to mention the shoveling.

USA did ask (and answer) two more ice-cold inquiries – these being the following...

WHICH U.S. CITIES HAVE THE HIGHEST HISTORICAL WHITE CHRISTMAS CHANCES?

“None of the most-populated 25 cities in the United States have a very good chance (higher than one-in-three) of a white Christmas, according to AccuWeather's analysis of the historical data. Among the biggest cities, Denver is the most likely, with a 34% chance, followed by Chicago with about a 33.5% chance, AccuWeather reported,” followed by Indianapolis, Boston and Columbus, Ohio.

The most likely snowpacked urban area is Tahoe City, California, which has an 83.4% chance. (Small) Ski towns in Colorado have chances from 94 to 99%.

And, also...

WHICH REGIONS HAVE 0% WHITE CHRISTMAS PROBABILITY?

USA Today’s Santucci announced that the worst chances for snow “include much of the southeastern part of the country and the West Coast, according to the NOAA data.”

She also said that: “It might go without saying, but there is a 0% probability of a white Christmas in Miami, Houston and Los Angeles based on the data.”  This, unfortunately is incorrect... LA is also a county with numerous and snowy mountain areas while even Miami got a dusting half a century ago (see Attachment Three, above)

 

No, Doyle: BLAME SCROOGE!!

But Santucci got payback over Doyle in the inter-USA Today stakes by dragging back the origins of White Christmas to 1843 and Charles Dickens, the English novelist and author of the enormously popular "A Christmas Carol," which depicts “a a London Christmas blanketed in snow, cold and ice skating. And yet even by then London was less and less likely to get snow.

"What Dickens is doing in "A Christmas Carol" is what we all do – going back to our childhood when Christmas is the most magical," said Thomas Ruys Smith, a professor and literary historian of Christmas at the University of East Anglia in the United Kingdom.

Dickens grew up in the 1810s and 1820s in England, when the Little Ice Age still had a grip on Europe. The Little Ice Age, which lasted from about 1300 to 1850, was a global period of widespread cooler temperatures, possibly the result of solar changes and volcanic activity.

"Periods of extremely cold temperatures were much more common in the region during the middle of the 19th century, when the Little Ice Age was finally beginning to end," said Dagomar Degroot, a professor of environmental history at Georgetown University who has written about the Little Ice Age.

"There's no doubt that the United States was, on average, much colder in the Victorian era than it is today. Average winter temperatures in particular have climbed more quickly than temperatures in other seasons, especially in the Northeast, where the American Christmas ideal emerged and evolved in the 19th century," he said.

"If Earth's climate system ends up being highly sensitive to greenhouse gas emissions, which is plausible, then a rapid and destructive rise in global temperatures will indeed make it impossible for many Americans to experience a white Christmas," Degroot added. "Of course, that will be the least of our problems."

 

IN the NEWS: DECEMBER 4TH to DECEMBER 10TH , 2025

 

Thursday, December 4, 2025

Dow:  47,852.31

A Cold Supermoon frowns down as Congress and critics target DefSec (or, as he prefers, War/Sec) Hegseck and his shipwreck sacrifice Admiral Mitch Bradley (recipient of Pistol Pete’s pivot – to the effect that it wss he who ordered a second strike upon two presumed Venezuelan dope smugglers clinging to the wreckage of the American first strike... or in the MAGAseen view, hailing confederates to haul the floating dope from the sea and “stay in the game”) which excuse Sen. Jack Reed (D-RI) called “clearly illegal” . 

   Anonymous (for good cause) Pentagon leakers also say Hegseck’s neck deep in the briny bosom of blarney due to his Signalistic posting plans for our War on Yemen on social media – where it was transmitted to and circulated by a journalist!!!  General Kelly, P.I.G. (Pentagon Inspector General) oinked to other media that the post had put pilots at risk to such extent that Trump, since then, is “reportedly growing weary” of his DefSec’s def jams.

   Other risky recent aeronautical adventures include an exploding F-16... fortunately, that pilot ejected over Trona, CA without injury.  And the deep freeze and blizzards are not only grounding passenger jets but also snarling traffic in the Upper Midwest.  It’s -15 in Green Bay, -25 in Fargo with the deep freeze extending East to New  York (where black ice) coats the highways and south to Atlanta.

   “My Pillow” guy Mike Lindell announces that he plans to run for Governor of Minnesota amidst a busted up network of Somali fraudsters defended by Rep. Ilhan Omar.

 

Friday, December 5, 2025

Dow:  47,937.25

In the courts, Trump pardons rebel Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Tx) while Doctor Death Plasencia convicted in the first of many Matthew Perry ketamine trials; Brian Walsh goes on trial for killing his cheatin’ wife,  Sergio Mangione’s lawyers say he should be turned loose because the search of his backpack at an Altoona, Pa. McDonald’s was illegal.  In another old, cold case, Camp Mystic families and survivors sue, controversial new Rep. Grijalva pepper sprayed and ICE accused of chasing and beating American citizens who “look foreign,” a second Federal Judge rejects re-indictment of Letitia James and, in Rome, the Catholic church rejects women deacons.

   Convicted fraudster Billy McFarland  says he’ll bring back his fraudly Fyre fests to an island off Honduras with leading act French Montana.  (Who??)  Only 400 tickets will be sold at $2,450 and there are plenty left.

   State judges will rule and, here and there, voters declare whether or not to follow HealthSec Bobby Kennedy Junior on the legality of vaxxing newborns for hepatitis.   TVdoc Richard Besser says: “I can no longer advise people to ask the CDC for medical advice and help.”

   CDC also advICE-ing pepper sprayed people (like restored Arizona politician Grijalva) as it’s also doing its business in Chicago, DC, Memphis and, now, New Orleans.

 

Saturday, December 6, 2025

Dow:  Closed

In Miami, U.S. peacemakers try to convince Russia and Ukraine that Trump’s peace plan will work, but he keeps cnanging the details, to no avail.  Russia focuses its bombers and drones on energy infrastructure – hoping that a super-cold winter and no heating fuel will cause the Ukes to surrender.

   Five years of digging and one Brian Cole Jr. is arrested for pipe bombings at RNA and DNC hdqts on the day after the One Six.  DoJ calls him an equal opportunity terrorist, setting up his warez on both Democrats and Republicans.

   Fourteen new cases of Legionnaire’s disase reported while... TV docs warn... strange new strains of flu will be coming from Japan and the U.K.

   Amidst all the world and weather woes, Americans seek relief from distractions.  There are Christmas tree lightings coast to coast and amid the ruins of the White House, but none more notorious than NYC’s Rockefeller Center installation.  Weekend sports see #2 upset of #1 Ohio State while #3 Georgia beats rival Alabama.  In soccer, Lionel Messi leads Miami over Vancouver while the FIFA cup schedule will find the United States opposing Paraguay on June 12, 2026.  ”Avatar Three” opens in France while US premiere is set for next week. 

 

Sunday, December 7, 2025

Dow:  Closed

It’s Pearl Harbor Day.  Gen. John Hiltz of the museum thereupon says: “What happened here changed the course of history; it’s lessons cannot be forgotten.” 

   And it’s Talkshow Sunday.  On ABC, Rep. Adam Smith (D-Wa) asks “what are we fighting for” re: the boat sinkings off Venezuela... “,,,is this about drugs or regime change?”  He cites legality of War Powers Act and calls for release of the second strike video of survivors being blown up among others who cite Trump’s pardon of dope smuggling Honduran President and crypto narco geek and contend we’re being dragged back into the past when the Monroe Doctrine ruled the waves.

   In rebuttal, Sen Eric Schmidt (R-Mo) calls Smith’s outrage a “Democratic distraction” deep inside the rabbit hole of Trump Derangement Syndrome againstthe disaster that was Goneaway Joe’s regime and polls show 75% of Americans” want to kill dopers.  Signal, too, is a “nothingburger”.

   After POTUS calls affordability a hoax, the ABC roundtabler and former RNC chair Priebus cites polls saying 80% of Americans hate Obamacare and calls the issue more distraction from Trump’s lucrative tariffs and price drops on gas and eggs that former DNC chair Brazile attributes to the end of the Bird Flu.  RINO Chris Christie says voters hate both parties while the President is cranky over the Epstein files and opposition to redactions he believes essential to national security (which liberals believe protect billionaire buddies in their partying on Jeffrey’s private island.*

   AI critic Nathan Soares says that the robots also hate both parties and, in fact, all humans and will kill them in a decade or less, probably with a “Terminator” engineered virus while crypto czar David Sacks, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang and Open AI’s Sam Altman respond that living under the robots will be Paradise. 

   On “Sixty Minutes”, renegade RINO MTG says her Trump dump happened because: “I stand for women who were raped when they were 14 and My President called ME a traitor.”  She also says she’s resigning from Congress due to the death threats to her son.

 

Monday, December 8, 2025 Dow:  47,739.32

Russia “applauds” Trump’s strategy on ending the war in Ukraine (which President Zelenskyy and the EU call “surrender”.  POTUS will go to England to attempt to convert King and counselors to his peace plan, while the bombing goes on and he also promises $12B to farmers hurt by his tariffs and pivots on releasing boat strike photos from Venezuela (which intelligent Ingelligencers say was going to Suriname, not Miami and Democrats call a “war crime” – but Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ar) shrugs off, saying the two survivors “were not dog-paddling” but working to overturn the boat and rescue the coke.

   After “Five Nights at Freddie’s” wins the B.O. race with a weak $63M in anticipation of “Avatar” opening tomorrow, five or even six Feddies  (including Chief Powell) indicate they will raise interest rates.

    Happy holiday parades all weekend but, in Gatlinburg, TN, a black bear joins the procession while Volunteers say “we’re not afraid of bears.”  In Florida, hunting season on the critters resumes after a two year treaty – relief for HomeSecSec Kristi, currently under fire for... uh... domestic affairs.

   And in what is probably the most dangerously underreported EO off the tip of Trump’s Sharpie, the National Park Service will cancel holiday admission discounts on Martin Luther King Day and Juneteenth and replace them with... Donnie’s own birthday.  Is POTUS desperate enough to need to distract voters from his economy by starting a race war?

 

Tuesday, December 9, 2025

Dow:  47,560.29

Arctic air believed to hang around through and past Christmas and weatherpeople warn of “potentially dangerous” cold for weeks.  At one degree Fahrenheit, frostbite set in in ten minutes; ABC weatherwoman Ginger Zee calls the situation “crusty” for at least another week (except in Vegas, where record highs baked the Strip).

   Paramount, Netflix and Warner Brothers tunnel dance over buyout... POTUS says he doesn’t like any of them (but Paramonnt has been swallowed whole by crony and Most Evil American Larry Ellison and his Oracle/Taleo web.  “We’re going to be talking about this for a long time,” media trolls promise.

   While platinum plus author James Patterson touts the murder of Marilyn Monre, Trump baits Monroe, Pa. (not so far from Butler) rally rednecks by denying his plummeting polls as hoaxish; also calls affordability a Democratic scam and then visits Gettysburg. 

   Mark Hamill hits the talkshows touting his Spongebob voiceover sequel while Andrew Ross Sorkin, author of “The Great Depression” – blaming same on the invention of EZ credit – and calling it a preequel to “The Big Fail” (regarding 2008’s real estate bubblepop) and adding that he hopes he won’t be doing a sequel.

 

Wednesday, December 10, 2025

Dow:  48,057.75

 

Feddie Powell duzzit on a 6-3 vote... lowers interest rates a quarter point (hiking the Dow to over 48,000), but hints he won’t be doing this so often in 2026 when his term ends.  Gamblers are also laying odds on the next Chair... current leader is NEC’s Kevin Hasset.  Trump scowls, then aims to bost his polling numbers by promising tariff revenues will be used for farmers and for military pay increases – then seeks the Viking vote by asking why more Scandanavians don’t want to migrate to the USA.  (See here for the reason.)

   At least America has Scandanavian weather... cold and wet with fifteen inches of rain in the Pacific Northwest while Eastern temperatures 20° below normal (minus 24 in Saranac Lake, NY) generate strong winds that are causing windblown wildfires across the country.

   Consumer Reports reports that grocers and other retailers are using AI to tailor “algorithmic” prices to individuals (and usually in gouging-mode of up to 23%) causing influencer Derek (not Lenny) Kravitz to opine that “we can’t trust the prices we see” (on the shelf).

   Cyber retail crooks merch on, algorithming prices and increasing restocking prices while old-fashioned crime marches on.  Burglars are using obituaries to rob the homes of mourners while at funeral; opera star stabbed by son; animal control police and Federal Agents raid a home in Mobile to capture “multiple” agile and hostile monkeys; and Brazilian art appreciators ape Louvre jewel thieves by stealing Matisse paintings in Sao Paolo.

 

As predicted, Feddie Powell lowers the interest rate by a quarter of a percent elevating the Dow to over 48,000 and lifting the Don into positive territory after an otherwise sleepy week as Joneses, despite wages failing to keep up with inflation and tariffs transferring to the government (where many promises are made – to farmers, veterans, and just assorted people) do Christmas shopping on credit.  Maybe there will be light at the end of the trouble, or under the tree, but keep an eye out for fires (at home, in forests and even off the coast of Honduras where the Fenix Fest, aka Fyre 3, on the island of Utila goes off surprisingly well despite zero publicity.

 

 

 

 

THE DON JONES INDEX

 

CHART of CATEGORIES w/VALUE ADDED to EQUAL BASELINE of 15,000

(REFLECTING… approximately… DOW JONES INDEX of June 27, 2013)

 

Gains in indices as improved are noted in GREEN.  Negative/harmful indices in RED as are their designation.  (Note – some of the indices where the total went up created a realm where their value went down... and vice versa.) See a further explanation of categories HERE

 

ECONOMIC INDICES 

 

(60%)

 

CATEGORY

VALUE

BASE

RESULTS by PERCENTAGE

SCORE

OUR SOURCES and COMMENTS

 

INCOME

(24%)

6/17/13 revised 1/1/22

LAST

CHANGE

NEXT

LAST WEEK

THIS WEEK

THE WEEK’S CLOSING STATS...

 

Wages (hrly. Per cap)

9%

1350 points

 11/27/25

  +0.38%

   12/25

1,853.22

1,853.22

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/average-hourly-earnings 36.67*

* Average hourly earnings for all employees on US private nonfarm payrolls rose by 9 cents, or 0.2% over a month, to $36.67 in September 2025, slowing from an upwardly revised 0.4% gain in August and just below market forecasts of a 0.3% increase. In September, average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees rose by 8 cents, or 0.3%, to $31.53. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 3.8% in September, matching August's revised pace and slightly above analysts' estimates of 3.7%. source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

 

Median Inc. (yearly)

4%

600

 11/27/25

  +0.055%

 12/11/25

1,152.18

1,152.83

http://www.usdebtclock.org/   52,347* 363 392

 

Unempl. (BLS – in mi)

4%

600

 11/27/25

  +0.28%

   10/25*

530.25

530.25

http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000000/    4.3*  4.4% (SEPT.)

 

Official (DC – in mi)

2%

300

 11/27/25

  +0.17%

 12/11/25

202.89

202.55

http://www.usdebtclock.org/    7,722 730 743

 

Unofficl. (DC – in mi)

2%

300

  11/27/25

  +0.07%

 12/11/25

243.17

243.00

http://www.usdebtclock.org/    14,135 141 151

 

Workforce Participation

   Number

   Percent

2%

300

  11/27/25

 

  +0.02%

  +0.36%

 12/11/25

296.90

297.98

http://www.usdebtclock.org/    In 163,956 977 4,013  Out 104,418 447 3,497

Total: 268,374  424 7,510

61.138  61.089 .311

 

WP %  (ycharts)*

1%

150

  11/27/25

   -0.16%

   10/25*

150.71

150.71

https://ycharts.com/indicators/labor_force_participation_rate  62.30 *

 

OUTGO

(15%)

 *  U.S. flag

An official website of the United States government

census.gov Notification
Due to the lapse of federal funding, portions of this website are not being updated. Any inquiries submitted via www.census.gov will not be answered until appropriations are enacted.

 

Total Inflation

7%

1050

 11/27/25

 +0.4%

   10/25*

927.45

927.45

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm     +0.3 NC

 

Food

2%

300

 11/27/25

 +0.5%

   10/25*

262.59

262.59

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm     +0.2

 

Gasoline

2%

300

 11/27/25

 +1.9%

   10/25*

255.11

255.11

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm     +4.1

 

Medical Costs

2%

300

 11/27/25

  -0.1%

   10/25*

274.20

274.20

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm     +0.3

 

Shelter

2%

300

 11/27/25

 +0.4%

   10/25*

250.63

250.63

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm     +0.2

 

WEALTH

U.S. flag   An official website of the United States government

census.gov
Notification: Due to the lapse of federal funding, portions of this website are not being updated. Any inquiries submitted via www.census.gov will not be answered until appropriations are enacted.

 

Dow Jones Index

2%

300

  11/27/25

 +0.37%

 12/11/25

364.55

365.88

https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/   47,427.12 882.90 48,057.75

 

Home (Sales)

(Valuation)

1%

1%

150

150

  11/27/25

+1.015%

  -1.75%

    10/25*

125.77

272.70

125.77

272.70

https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics

Sales (M):  4.10 Valuations (K):  415.2* NC

 

Millionaires  (New Category)

1%

150

  11/27/25

 +0.054%

 12/11/25

134.43

134.50

http://www.usdebtclock.org/    23,873 879 892

 

Paupers (New Category)

1%

150

  11/27/25

 +0.021%

 12/11/25

133.47

133.50

http://www.usdebtclock.org/    37,234 230 222

 

*Due to the lapse of federal funding, portions of this website are not being updated. Any inquiries submitted via www.census.gov will not be answered until appropriations are enacted.

 

GOVERNMENT

(10%)

 

Revenue (trilns.)

2%

300

  11/27/25

  +0.08%

 12/11/25

459.23

459.58

http://www.usdebtclock.org/    5,265 267 271

 

Expenditures (tr.)

2%

300

  11/27/25

  +0.03%

 12/11/25

295.17

295.09

http://www.usdebtclock.org/    7,033 035 037

 

National Debt tr.)

3%

450

  11/27/25

  +0.08%

 12/11/25

352.27

352.00

http://www.usdebtclock.org/    38,347 434 463

 

Aggregate Debt (tr.)

3%

450

  11/27/25

  +0.12%

 12/11/25

376.84

376.39

http://www.usdebtclock.org/    105,567 624 751

 

 

TRADE

(5%)

 

Foreign Debt (tr.)

2%

300

  11/27/25

   +0.10%

 12/11/25

257.72

257.47

http://www.usdebtclock.org/    9,411 417 426

 

Exports (in billions)

1%

150

 11/27/25

   +1.15%

   10/25*

174.76

174.76

*https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/current/index.html  280.8

 

Imports (in billions))

1%

150

 11/27/25

    -5.94%

   10/25*

151.56

151.56

*https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/current/index.html  340.4

 

Trade Surplus/Deficit (blns.)

1%

150

 11/27/25

  -23.12%

   10/25*

253.88

253.88

*https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/current/index.html    59.6

 

FOR 2026 ADD TOP 1% AND BOTTOM 50% WEALTH

U.S. flag  *An official website of the United States government

census.gov 

  Notification:  Due to the lapse of federal funding, portions of this website are not being updated. Any inquiries submitted via www.census.gov will not be answered until appropriations are enacted.

 

 

SOCIAL INDICES 

 

(40%)

 

 

ACTS of MAN

(12%)

 

 

195

 

World Affairs

3%

450

 11/27/25

          nc

 12/11/25

469.61

469.61

Louvre can’t catch a break – jewels still missing despite 8 thieves caught and now flooding damages 1,400 rare books and arfifacts.  (At least the French have Notre Dame... the cathedral, not the football team... back in business.)  China trade surplus tops $1 trillion...

 

War and terrorism

2%

300

 11/27/25

       -0.2%

 12/11/25

287.18

286.61

...so they excalate attacks on Japan (which also has an... uhm... little EQ problem).  Does this augur a ground war?  Plenty of conflicts already: Ukraine, Gaza and some newbies... foiled coup in Benin, Thai/Cambodia conflict and commotion over Venezuela (as intelligent intelligencers say the two strike boat was not going to America) escalates as Amurka seizes a Ven oil tanker (and its oil)

 

Politics

3%

450

 11/27/25

       -0.1%

 12/11/25

459.76

459.30

National Parks Service dumps on MLK and Juneteenth, Bureau Land Management kills programs training prisoners to train horses.  Miami elects first Donkey Mayor in 30 years; SCOTUS greenlights Texas gerrymander, lesser courts redlight repetitive prosecutions of Letitia James and James Comey.  President Trump fires his Golden Ballroom architect.  ComSec Duffy beats RFK Junior in pull up contest.

 

Economics

3%

450

 11/27/25

       +0.3%

 12/11/25

430.93

432.22

Warner Bros. and Netflix $83B merger talks interrupted by Paramount  Consumer Reports names Subaru world’s best car.  Trickle in trickle down US jobs report down 32K but POTUS promises free money for farmers and raises for military.  Wicked Feddie Powell cuts interest rates a quarter of a percent (see above). 

 

Crime

1%

150

 11/27/25

       +0.2%

 12/11/25

208.51

208.93

Surprise!  87 Minnesota Somalis charged with COVID fraud... Trump was RIGHT!  Bicoastal perfume thieves arrested.  (They’ll smell nice in prison!) And prison officials intercept drones dropping crab legs to gourmet cons. Mass shootings in South Africa and India; 2 shot, one dies at HBCU Kentucky State U.

 

ACTS of GOD

(6%)

 

 

 

 

Environment/Weather

3%

450

 11/27/25

      -0.2%

 12/11/25

283.52

282.95

Mother Nature proves a wicked (w)itch as subzero temps and blizzards slowly roll east while the West drowns in floodwaters.  (See above)

 

Disasters

3%

450

 11/27/25

      +0.2%

 12/11/25

460.23

461.15

Two separate fatal house fires in the U.S. in December 2025 each result in the deaths of five people; one in Hillsboro, Alabama, and another in Porterville, California.  Miracle survivors included stranded mountain climbers, drivers pulled from burning cars and skydivers with defective parachutes.

 

LIFESTYLE/JUSTICE INDEX

(15%)

 

 

 

 

Science, Tech, Education

4%

600

 11/27/25

       -0.1%

 12/11/25

615.43

614.91

Public Interest Research Group (PIRG) tests AI “therapists” (a good ref is Michael Connelly’s lawyer novel “The Proving Ground”) and finds them... well, you get what you pay for.  18,000 dinosaur footprints found in Bolivia.  America greenlights chip sales to China and the Red Army factioneers while Australia bans all social media to under-16s.

 

Equality (econ/social)

     4%

600

 11/27/25

       -0.2%

 12/11/25

675.09

673.74

70th anniversary of Montgomery bus boycott.  Contested Rep. Grijalva (D-Az) and Minnesota Somalis pepper sprayed by ICE.  Vatican rejects women deacons. 

 

Health

4%

600

 11/27/25

       -0.2%

 12/11/25

417.56

416.72

Add to COVID and nu flu new strains... Legionnaire’s disease, coming back to Florida; RFK Junior redlights (but doesn’t criminalize) hepatitis vaxxes for newborns.  Waymo recalls self driving cars that keep passing school buses.  Miss Jamaica suffers brain bleed after paraent fall.  Mixed Nuts fromWegman’s recalled for salmonella (but no known peanut butter lox recalled for allergies).

 

Freedom and Justice

3%

450

 11/27/25

          nc

 12/11/25

481.61

481.61

Courts packed with cases TBD: golden criminal oldies Mangione, Comey and bipartisan bomber Cole; civil litigants Camp Mystic; nautical newbies in Venezuela boat strikes and family of cruise ship deadman suing sailors for serving him 33 drinks, and sparkly new Trump v. Slaughter (fired FTC commissioner Rebecca, not rassler Sergeant), Michael Jordan v. NASCAR, NY archdiocese beset by pervy priests.  Solved: GA beauty queen gets life for killing infant.

 

CULTURAL and MISCELLANEOUS INCIDENTS

(6%)

 

 

 

 

 

Cultural incidents

3%

450

 11/27/25

      +0.1%

 12/11/25

572.84

573.41

“Five Nights at Freddie’s” wins in weak week in the cinemas; however movie buffs await tonight’s midnight premieres of “Avatar Three”.  See Golden Globes nominees here.  FIFA drawing will pit American soccer team against Paraguay on June 12th. Indiana takes first Big Ten title since 1945 while Georgia gets its revenge on Alabama for the SEC title; gang of 12 still admits the Tide and Miami, dismisses Notre Dame.  Google’s most googled Man of the Year is NYC Mayor Zorro, movie is “K-Pop”, song is Taylor’s “Wood” but Bad Bunny wins Spotify artist of the year, dethroning Swift.

   RIP: iconic songwriter and session guitarist Steve Cropper; strange architect Frank Gehry, D-Day hero medic Charles Shay at 101; NBA’s Elden Campbell; country star Criscilla Anderson, NASCAR’s Michael Aynett.  After RIP, Martha Stewarts wants her corpse to be composted.

 

Miscellaneous incidents

4%

450

 11/27/25

       +0.2%

 12/11/25

543.40

544.49

Dog breaks record for its longest KISS tongue. Francine, the Lowe’s cat, rescued and returned home to Virginia after stowing away on a North Carolina truck.  Three year old grandmaster dominates Indian chess tournament.  Ice Cream man Stew Leonard merches butter ice cream.  Convicted fraudster Billy McFarland promoting yet another Fyre Festival.

 

 

 

 

The Don Jones Index for the week of December 4th through December 10th, 2025 was UP 1.93 points

The Don Jones Index is sponsored by the Coalition for a New Consensus: retired Congressman and Independent Presidential candidate Jack “Catfish” Parnell, Chairman; Brian Doohan, Administrator.  The CNC denies, emphatically, allegations that the organization, as well as any of its officers (including former Congressman Parnell, environmentalist/America-Firster Austin Tillerman and cosmetics CEO Rayna Finch) and references to Parnell’s works, “Entropy and Renaissance” and “The Coming Kill-Off” are fictitious or, at best, mere pawns in the web-serial “Black Helicopters” – and promise swift, effective legal action against parties promulgating this and/or other such slanders.

Comments, complaints, donations (especially SUPERPAC donations) always welcome at feedme@generisis.com or: speak@donjonesindex.com.

 

ATTACHMENT ONE – FROM WIKIPEDIA

ICUMEN   OVERVIEW   

Apr 19, 2025

"Sumer is icumen in" is the incipit of a medieval English round or rota of the mid-13th century; it is also known variously as the Summer Canon and the Cuckoo Song. The line translates approximately to "Summer has come" or "Summer has arrived". The song is written in the Wessex dialect of Middle English. 

1200s Summer is Icumen in is one of the oldest secular (non-religious) songs in English and the first ever to be known with six lines of melody. It is thought to have been written at the Abbey in 1200s.  


See art by Dionisio Minaggio, 1618  HERE


CUCKOO SONG
[Brit. Lib. MS Harley 978, f. 11v]





5





10

Sumer is icumen in,
Loude sing cuckou!
Groweth seed and bloweth meed,
And springth the wode now.
Sing cuckou!

Ewe bleteth after lamb,
Loweth after calve cow,
Bulloc sterteth, bucke verteth,
Merye sing cuckou!
Cuckou, cuckou,
Wel singest thou cuckou:
Ne swik thou never now!

 



meadow blossoms
wood




leaps/farts



cease

 

WINTER IS ICUMEN IN by EZRA POUND

Ancient Music

Winter is icummen in,
Lhude sing Goddamm,
Raineth drop and staineth slop,
And how the wind doth ramm!
                          Sing: Goddamm.
Skiddeth bus and sloppeth us,
An ague hath my ham.
Freezeth river, turneth liver,
                        Damn you, sing: Goddamm.
Goddamm, Goddamm, 'tis why I am, Goddamm,
                          So 'gainst the winter's balm.
Sing goddamm, damm, sing Goddamm.
Sing goddamm, sing goddamm, DAMM.

Note by Pound: This is not folk music, but Dr. Ker writes that the tune is to be found under the Latin words of a very ancient canon.

"Ancient Music" is Pound's goodhearted parody of the Medieval round, "The Cuckoo Song":

CUCKOO SONG
by Anonymous
 
Sumer is icumen in,
Lhude sing cuccu;
Groweth sed and bloweth med
And Springth the wude nu.
    Sing cuccu!
Awe bleteth after lomb,
Lhouth after calve cu;
Bulluc sterteth, bucke verteth;
Murie sing cuccu.
Cuccu, cuccu,
Wel singes thu, cuccu,
Ne swik thu naver nu.
    Sing cuccu nu! Sing cuccu!
    Sing cuccu! Sing cuccu nu!

GLOSSARY:
lhude = loud.
awe = ewe.
lhouth = loweth.
sterteth = leaps.
swike = cease. © by owner. provided at no charge for educational purposes   

Analysis (ai): This poem, likely from the early 1900s, stands out in its brevity and use of vulgar language. Compared to other works of the author, it is significantly shorter and more direct. The poem's crude language and focus on the harshness of winter set it apart from the more lyrical and philosophical themes found in other works of the period. Instead, the poem's repetitive use of "Goddamm" and explicit descriptions of cold and discomfort convey a sense of raw emotion and frustration. Despite its brevity, the poem effectively captures the bleakness and discomfort associated with winter.

 

ATTACHMENT TWO – FROM FOX WEATHER

WHEN DOES WINTER REALLY START? IT DEPENDS ON WHO YOU ASK

Meteorologists and climatologists consider December, January and February the winter months, but the meteorological season's start date is different than the winter solstice.

By Andrew Wulfeck 

 

Meteorological winter begins December 1

FOX Weather meteorologists Adam Klotz, Ari Sarsalari and Jane Minar discuss the temperature and precipitation outlook for meteorological winter, which begins Dec. 1 and runs through Feb. 28.

Calendars across the Northern Hemisphere say winter will begin on Dec. 21, but for meteorologists, the start of the season happens three weeks earlier on Dec. 1.

The reason behind the discrepancy is that weather experts follow what’s called meteorological seasons, while others use the astronomical calendar to signify the change.

Meteorologists and climatologists break down the seasons based on when temperatures typically change, not the status of Earth’s rotation.

See charts, graphs and maps at links below...

 

HOW TO WATCH FOX WEATHER

The start of winter depends on whether you're referring to the astronomical or the meteorological start.

Under the meteorological season scheme, the four seasons are each allotted three months, making it easier to calculate statistics and compare weather conditions to previous years.

The rotation of Earth around the Sun and the planet’s tilt make the basis for the astronomical calendar.

WEAK LA NIΡA EXPECTED TO EMERGE SOON AND LAST INTO SPRING

The Earth's orbit around the sun gives our planet its four seasons.

The astronomical changing of the seasons is marked by either a solstice or an equinox.

The summer and winter solstices occur when the Northern Hemisphere is at its maximum tilt toward or away from the Sun, respectively.

When Earth’s axis isn’t tilted in favor of either direction, it’s referred to as an equinox, or the start of spring or fall.

WINTER OUTLOOK: LA NIΡA SET TO EMERGE, UNLEASHING LARGE SWING POTENTIAL FOR MORE SNOW, FRIGID TEMPERATURES

The days that the solstices and equinoxes fall on vary year-by-year because Earth takes slightly more than 365 days to revolve around the Sun, hence why you’ll see slight adjustments in the changing of the astronomical seasons.

NOAA says meteorological seasons were developed because of the ever-changing dates produced by the astronomical calendar.

So when the calendar switches over to December, don’t be shocked if your favorite FOX Weather meteorologist is welcoming everyone to winter.

FARMERS ALMANACS ISSUE DUELING WINTER OUTLOOKS: ‘GENTLER’ OR ‘WHIRLWIND’?

Meteorological winter starts on Dec. 1 and runs through Feb. 28, which tends to be a better fit for the coldest time of the year than astronomical winter.

 

 

ATTACHMENT THREE – FROM USA TODAY

SNOW IN MIAMI? NEARLY 5 DECADES SINCE A SHOCKING WEATHER ANOMALY

It was so shockingly cold that there were short-lived fears of a new ice age. Scientists think human activity contributed to the historic weather

By Doyle Rice  Updated Dec. 1, 2025, 11:59 a.m. ET

 

Fifty years ago a fascinating weather anomaly blanketed the United States in arctic, snowy weather and temporarily spawned fears of a new ice age. Call it the "snowy '70s."

It was so wintry that the cold wave of January 1977 produced the only known trace of snow in the greater Miami area of Florida ever reported.

"The 1970s were indeed a cold decade by historical standards, especially the late 1970s," meteorologist Robert Henson of Yale Climate Connections said in an email. "Over the last century (from 1925 through 2024), two of the three coldest U.S. years were 1978 and 1979. The coldest U.S. winter on record (going back to 1895) was 1978-79."

Some of the worst blizzards in modern U.S. history occurred in the 1970s, Henson said. And three of the nine most severe U.S. winters for snow and cold between 1950 and 2013 occurred in the late 1970s.

 

Here's what happened:

THE 1970S WERE HISTORICALLY COLD

The 1970s were a chilly period indeed, not just in the United States but across the Northern Hemisphere, Henson said.

During the ’70s in the United States, there were actually about 25% more record daily lows than record daily highs set in the United States. But since then, the last 50 years have seen an increasing proportion of daily record highs to record lows, as reflected in data from about 1,800 weather stations, according to the American Meteorological Society.

The winter of 1978-79 stands out as the coldest US winter since accurate records began in the late 1800s.

 

WHY WAS IT SO COLD? WAS THERE 'GLOBAL COOLING'?

On the global level, there's quite a bit of evidence that the slight global cooling from the 1940s to 1970s was largely induced by the boom in industry after World War II, especially in the United States and Europe, according to Henson. "Before we had environmental controls, the postwar factories and power plants spewed so much sun-blocking pollution into the air that it appears to have cooled the regional and global atmosphere."

Starting in the 1970s, pollution controls have given us cleaner air, but we're also blocking less sunlight. That reduced sun blockage has teamed up with human-produced greenhouse gases to warm the global climate, especially in places like the United States and Europe, where the mid-century air pollution was especially bad.

 

WHAT ROLE DID JET STREAM PLAY IN 970S COLD?

Weatherwise, Rutgers University distinguished professor and snow expert David Robinson said via email, the cold winters in the ’70s "were associated with a jet stream that was often found further south than normal. This permitted Arctic/Polar air to flow into the lower 48. Extensive North American snow cover in the ’78 and ’79 winters (but not in ’77) likely played a role in keeping temperatures cold.

"Of course, it goes both ways, with snow falling because it is cold, but also snow cover keeping the region cold (high albedo, energy required to melt snow thus not available to warm the air, association with more southerly storm tracks, thus opening the door for more polar air)."

 

FEARS OF AN ONCOMING ICE AGE

There were articles in the ‘70s, mostly in popular magazines, that spoke of an impending ice age, according to Robinson. "Paleoclimate studies at that time were showing that interglacials over the past million years were generally about 10,000 years in length and the one we are in has gone on for about 10,000 years. Thus, it seemed possible that over coming millennia (note, tens of thousands of years), that the earth might transition into another glacial maximum in 100,000 years (or) so."

However, he said "this certainly wasn’t a sign of an immediately impending ice age! At this time, it was also beginning to be better recognized that humans were having an impact on climate that should begin to show a global warming in decades ahead.

"So, you had a lot of info out there that could be interpreted (or misinterpreted!) in several ways. Though it is safe to say that no serious climatologist at that time was afraid of an ice age emerging for upcoming generations and well beyond."

That would seem to wipe out the prospect of caves and cavemen, woolly mammoths, sabre tigers and direwolves (barring genetic developments) – even consequential to unusually strong polar vortex systems – three of which, USA Today also reported, are expected this month as frigid temperatures are expected to impact much of the central and eastern U.S. in the coming weeks.

 

 

I JUST GOT A CHILL... 

The surges of Arctic air will generate rounds of flurries and squalls in certain locations and may assist igniting storms with more widespread snow.

 

•

We're headed for an extremely cold December. On Thursday, wind chills between negative 10 to negative 25 degrees are expected in the upper Midwest and Northern Plains.

•

How does a polar vortex form? It's a normal pattern that tends to contain the coldest weather close to the North Pole. A portion of the polar vortex may break off or drift south.

•

Say slush: Meanwhile, several states in the Northeast are being hit by a "wintry mix" with snowfall up to an inch an hour and travel delays. Maybe book a ski trip or make a snow sculpture?

 

ATTACHMENT FOUR – FROM SEVERE WEATHER EUROPE

SEASONAL PREDICTIONS SHOW A STRONG START OF THE 2025/2026 SNOW SEASON ACROSS NORTH AMERICA

By Andrej Flis  Published: 03/12/2025

See charts, graphs and maps here

 

The snowfall predictions for Winter 2025/2026 show a strong cold and snow pattern across the United States and Canada. This is already evident in the current daily weather, with a growing cold air anomaly. Across the Atlantic, Europe shows a slow start to the snow season.

The main global weather driver in the upcoming winter season is expected to be La Niρa. In recent days and weeks, we have been tracking a developing Stratospheric Warming event, which has impacted the winter polar vortex and daily weather.

Looking at global long-range weather forecasting systems and historical data, you will see snowfall predictions for the upcoming Winter and how they are influenced by these large-scale factors.

 

WINTER STARTS WITH SNOWFALL

 
Since we will be talking about the snowfall forecast in this article, we have to look at the current weather pattern across the Northern Hemisphere. Because it just happens that a colder weather pattern is developing right at the start of the meteorological winter.

Meteorological winter began on December 1st in the Northern Hemisphere and will last three months, ending on the last day of February.

The low-pressure Polar Vortex core brings a sustained cold air flow into the central and eastern United States and southern Canada. At the same time, a westerly to southwesterly flow is established over Europe, bringing mild conditions and unsettled conditions over the northwestern parts.

This is reflected in the temperature forecast over North America for the same period. It shows a strong corridor of colder air, spanning from the Arctic Circle into southern and eastern Canada and the eastern half of the United States.

This is the effect of a low-pressure system positioned over Hudson Bay, as it spins counterclockwise, creating a strong northerly flow from Canada into the United States.

Looking at the total snowfall forecast for the first half of the month, you can see quite a large area with expected snowfall. For example, the western United States across the Rockies and some lower elevations, parts of the Midwest, the northern and central Plains, and a larger batch over the Midwest and the northeast.

Over Europe, mostly normal to above normal temperatures are forecast for the first half of the month, driven by the westerly to southwesterly flow. This brings a mild pattern into the continent, with the cold air supply cut off, or pushed far north.

Looking at the snowfall forecast for the same period, you can see mostly higher-elevation snowfall. This is expected, as there is a lack of cold air to drop the snowfall level down to the lowlands.

These current events are just one example of how quickly the weather pattern can turn wintery across the United States or Europe, despite what a long-term average forecast might suggest. In this case, the winter luck is on the side of North America. But what do the snowfall predictions say for the rest of Winter 2025/2026?
 

WINTER 2025/2026 SNOWFALL PREDICTIONS

 
Below is the average snowfall forecast for the meteorological Winter season, covering the December-January-February period. We will do a monthly breakdown, as there are a lot of details in the monthly forecast that the whole seasonal average cannot show.

First, looking at the seasonal average, we see below-normal snowfall across much of the continent, with the main snowfall areas pushed towards the north. But you can see some central and western areas that show a lower snow deficit.

But compared to the forecast data from the previous month, there is some improvement. There is more snowfall now forecast in the latest data over central and west-central parts, and over parts of the UK and Ireland. We don’t see a wild snowfall increase as a result of the stratospheric warming, but the forecast is heading in the right direction with each new run.

The December snowfall forecast shows mostly negative anomalies, apart from the far north. But we can see that apart from some stronger negative areas, there are zones with lesser deficits. It’s surprising to see less snowfall over higher elevations, indicating more of a low-precipitation problem, rather than warm temperatures.

In the January forecast, we don’t see any improvement. Most of Europe is forecast to have less snowfall in mid-winter, but we do see some areas towards the southeast getting more snow in this period, along with far north.

The February forecast shows a bit less deficit compared to the January data. While both months look very poor with snow, the red color does not mean no snow at all. It just shows that less snow than normal is expected.

 

NORTH AMERICA SNOWFALL PREDICTIONS

 
Over North America, the southern United States shows below-average snow depth over the entire Winter average. But the latest forecast below is starting to show more snowfall over the whole northern United States and the entire southern half of Canada. This can provide a substantial source of colder air over Canada and also a fixed corridor into the United States.

The deficit (or lack of) snowfall is less over the eastern and northeastern United States and over parts of the lower Midwest.

We can see this more clearly in the run-to-run comparison below. The latest forecast indicates significant improvement, with increased snowfall now projected across the northern United States and the Northeast, and across the eastern United States and into parts of the South. This is something that we can expect to see after a stratospheric warming event, in the mix with ENSO and other tropical factors.

We can also see more snowfall in this forecast over the Pacific Northwest. But there are some areas with less snowfall in this run, like the southwestern United States, the central Plains, and, of course, eastern Canada.

The December snowfall forecast shows less snow cover over the southern parts of the United States. This month shows a substantial increase in snow cover, with above-normal snowfall amounts forecast across the northern half of the United States, but limited over the Northeast.

The January snow forecast indicates greater snowfall over the northern United States, the Mid-Atlantic states, and Canada. Less snowfall is forecast over the south-central United States and over deep southeastern Canada. But we do see that the snowfall deficit over the eastern United States is much smaller than over California and the southwest overall.

The February snowfall forecast shows the main snowfall area to pull more to the north, looking to shift more into a La Niρa-style winter. We see more snowfall over the northern United States and the upper Midwest, over the far northeast, and into southeastern Canada. This month is still far in the forecast range, so it can still start to increase the snowfall amounts with each run.

The March snowfall forecast shows the main snow area pulling back north slightly in early Spring, with a now stronger deficit seen over the Plains, the Midwest, and the northeastern United States. More snowfall is still forecast over southern Canada and into the northern United States.

On a side note (just as a fun observation), if you look closely at the image, you should be able to see a pattern of a cat crossing North America.

We were now looking at anomalies, which can only tell us so much. Below is the latest seasonal total snowfall forecast from ECMWF for the next month. It shows the total seasonal snowfall amount and shows legitimate snowfall even over areas that show a snowfall deficit for December.

But we do see a good amount of total snow forecast over the Midwest, the northeastern United States, and the West. It is also interesting to see snowfall reach far to the south, which could be a single cold event, but still leaves a mark.

This is a clear sign that while some areas show below-normal snowfall, that does not mean no snowfall at all. It just means those areas are expected to see less snowfall than usual, while still having some snow on the ground during the whole season.
 

UKMO WINTER SNOWFALL FORECAST

 
Because you can never trust a single forecast model, we tend to use the UKMO long-range forecasting system as our second forecasting go-to choice.

First, looking at the seasonal average for Europe, we can see a rather weak snowfall forecast, similar to the ECMWF. Most of the continent is forecast to have a below-average snowfall season, except for the far northern parts. In our experience, UKMO tends to be less optimistic about snowfall than ECMWF, so this is to be expected.

The latest run shows much better snowfall amounts compared to the forecast data from the previous month. It is likely that some improvement comes from the current Stratospheric Warming event. Much of the mainland shows more snowfall in the latest forecast, and we can also see improved snowfall over the southern UK.

The December snowfall forecast shows stronger negative anomalies, just like the ECMWF. This agreement in both models does give some weight to this scenario, with a slower start to the snowfall season. There are still some south-central and northern areas with normal to above-normal or normal snowfall.

The January snowfall forecast shows some improvement in parts of central Europe, with even some above-normal areas, and lesser deficits over western parts. This suggests that the main problem this month is likely a lack of precipitation, along with milder temperatures.

The February snowfall forecast again reduces snow potential across most of Europe, except for the far north. We still see a lesser lack of snowfall compared to January, so it’s likely there would be more of a single-event snow drop, that’s still strong enough.

 

UKMO NORTH AMERICA SNOWFALL FORECAST

 
The average seasonal forecast for the United States and Canada shows a rather typical La Niρa snowfall pattern. We see more snowfall forecast over the northwestern United States, the northern Plains, and the upper Midwest, and over much of Canada. Less snowfall is forecast over the central and southwestern United States, with the belt of less snowfall continuing to stretch towards the northeast.

The UKMO shows a good improvement in snowfall amounts compared to the previous run. You can see more snowfall in the latest data over southeastern Canada, the central and western northern U.S., the southern states, the upper Midwest, and the northwest.

This model run also shows less snowfall over parts of the eastern United States, the northeast, and the far north.

The December snowfall forecast does not seem too optimistic at first glance. But despite less snowfall across the central and eastern United States, there is a larger pool of snow sitting in Canada. That means it is keeping the temperatures lower, so any cold air outbreak that comes from the north is generally colder than usual.

But for snowfall, we also need some precipitation. Overall, we do believe that this UKMO snowfall is not the most optimal, as we already have extended range forecasts that show a different story, combined with the stratospheric warming effect.

January snowfall forecast shows a better pattern across North America, with more snowfall over much of southern Canada and the northern United States. There is still less snowfall shown over the eastern United States, but we can see that the “lack” of snowfall isn ot as great as in December.

There is an interesting swath of snowfall going across the central to the southern Plains. Considering the amounts, this was likely done in a single event, leaving a mark on the monthly average.

The February snowfall forecast shows another improvement, with above-normal snowfall over much of Canada and the northern parts of the United States, the upper Midwest, and even over the southeast. The only real regions with below normal snowfall are the southwestern United States and the northeast in this forecast.

Otherwise, the rest of the country shows La Niρa snowfall patterns, but the UKMO doesn’t seem to properly handle early-season stratospheric warming effects.

Looking at the latest March snowfall forecast, it shows continued snowfall potential over the northern United States and southern Canada in early Spring. The rest of the United States shows reduced snowfall amounts, and in a very (almost unrealistic) sharp pattern.

This shows a clear extended snowfall season over the northern United States. With a large mass of snow also in southern Canada, this will prolong the risk of cold air outbreaks into the United States well into Spring.
 

ENSO WINTER INFLUENCE

 
The La Niρa we mentioned is an ocean anomaly in the Pacific ENSO regions. This is a region of the equatorial Pacific Ocean that changes between warm and cold phases. ENSO phases have a significant influence on tropical rainfall, pressure patterns, and the complex exchange between the ocean and the atmosphere.

Below is the latest surface analysis of the tropical Pacific Ocean, with the marked ENSO area. Cold ocean anomalies extend across the region, creating a cold wave structure due to the easterly trade winds. This is the currently active La Niρa, which has reached its peak and is expected to stay within the weak/moderate range.

La Niρa usually forms during strong trade winds, which can tell us a lot about the state of global circulation. This way, we can use these anomalies as an “indicator” to better understand the current state of the global climate system and what to expect in the seasons ahead.

To better understand these ocean temperature changes, we produced a video showing how La Niρa anomalies form and evolve.

The video above shows developing cold ocean anomalies in the equatorial Pacific over the past 90 days. During this time, the trade winds were strengthening, increasing upwelling of deeper, colder waters and creating the now-visible surface cold anomalies.

So what exactly does this mean for the winter weather patterns and snowfall potential? We will take a closer look at the weather influence that La Niρa usually brings over North America, where it has a more direct impact.
 

NORTH AMERICA WINTER WEATHER SYSTEMS

 
Historically, a strong high-pressure system in the North Pacific has been the most typical feature of a cold ENSO phase. That tends to redirect the polar jet stream down over the northern United States, bringing along a colder airmass.

The image below shows the jet stream redirection during La Niρa winters and the resulting weather patterns over the United States and Canada. You can see the high pressure in the North Pacific, pushing the jet stream upwards, with a bend down into the United States, creating a “slide” effect for the cold air.

The displaced jet stream brings colder temperatures and winter storms from the polar regions down into the northern and northwestern United States. Warmer and drier winter weather prevails over the southern states.

Looking at the temperature analysis for the weak La Niρa winters, you can see the cold anomaly area under the jet stream in western Canada and the northwestern United States. A cooler area extends over the Midwest and down into the south-central plains and partially to the east. We can also see a cooler pattern over Europe.

Warmer-than-normal weather and mild winter conditions typically develop over the southwestern United States, parts of the eastern United States, and eastern Canada. This image also shows data from older winters, so it tends to look colder than more recent winters. But it does highlight the impacts and trends.

Because colder air is more readily available over the northern United States, this increases snowfall potential when moisture is available. In the graphic below, you can see the average snowfall pattern for La Niρa years, as expected for this Winter season.

Besides western Canada, the northwestern United States, and the Midwest, you can also see more snowfall potential over parts of the northeastern United States and southeastern Canada.

 

 

ATTACHMENT FIVE – FROM AI OVERVIEW

 

The United States winter forecast for 2025-2026 generally predicts a warmer-than-average winter for the South, Southwest, and parts of the Northeast, while the Northwest, Northern Rockies, and Great Lakes region are expected to be colder than average. Precipitation is likely to be above average in the northern tier, including the Pacific Northwest, Great Lakes, and Ohio River Valley, with a risk of drier-than-average conditions in the far Southeast. 

Temperature outlook

·         Warmer than average: The South, including the Gulf Coast and Texas, and the Northeast are favored to experience warmer-than-average temperatures. The Southwest is also expected to be warmer, according to some forecasts.

·         Colder than average: The Northwest, Northern Rockies, and Northern Plains are most likely to see below-average temperatures.

·         Neutral: Other areas have equal chances for above-, near-, or below-average temperatures. 

Precipitation outlook

·         Wetter than average: Wetter conditions are most likely in the Pacific Northwest, Northern Plains, Great Lakes region, and Ohio River Valley.

·         Drier than average: The far Southeast is most likely to be drier than average, with drier-than-normal conditions favored across the southern tier of states. 

Notable storm patterns

·         Stormy start and end: Winter storms are expected to bookend the season, with activity likely in early December and late February/early March.

·         Storm track: Early in the season, storms may track from Canada into the Midwest and towards the Mid-Atlantic and New England. Later in the season, the storm track may shift to the Plains and Mississippi Valley.

·         Snow potential: Areas around the Great Lakes could see heavy lake-effect snow in December. The Northeast is expected to see some snow, with amounts potentially higher than last winter but still possibly below average overall. 

Other factors

·         La Niρa: A weak La Niρa is expected to continue but may transition to ENSO-neutral by March 2026, meaning typical La Niρa effects might be less impactful than usual. 

 

ATTACHMENT SIX – FROM POWDER MAGAZINE

“HISTORICALLY COLD” WINTER FORECASTED FOR MOST OF COUNTRY

Direct Weather has released their final long-range winter forecast of the year. Now, only time will tell what Mother Nature has up her sleeve.

By Izzy Lidsky  Nov 17, 2025 2:36 PM EST

 

The winter Solstice is just over a month away and meteorologists are taking their last stabs at long range winter forecasts. Our friends at OpenSnow reminded us earlier this fall that most long range forecasts are not very accurate, because, well, they can’t be.

However, it’s still fun (depending on what the forecast says…) and vaguely informative to take a gander and see if you should be investing in new powder skis or carving skis for the upcoming season.

YouTube weather channel Direct Weather recently published their final long range winter forecast for the upcoming season. The forecast covers temperature anomalies, precipitation anomalies, snowfall chances, and an overall forecast. It’s all a pretty broad overview and again, not necessarily the most accurate given how far out the forecast is looking, but here’s what Direct Weather’s Winter 2025/26 outlook is calling for. You can watch the forecast video below and keep reading for more.

According to Direct Weather’s forecast, California and parts of southern Oregon are in for a pretty warm winter. The further south you look, the more confidence there is that these places, as well as parts of southern Utah and New Mexico will also see above average temperatures.

In contrast, it’s looking like a large portion of the US starting as far west as the upper corner of Washington state and as far south as parts of Texas will have below average temperatures. These below normal temps increase in confidence east of the Rockies and even more so north of the gulf coast line.

The highest confidence in below-average temps lingers over the midwest and interior northeastern states, which are historically, pretty darn cold.

The Imperfect Storm—Why Western Ski Resorts Are Dry as a Bone

The winter season has started noticeably slow out West—here's why.

When it comes to precipitation, Direct Weather’s forecast references the weak La Niρa that’s been called for by most other long range forecasts as well. Generally, La Niρa storms tend to impact the northwest before flowing towards the Rockies and leave California and parts of the southwest a little drier.

However, with the La Niρa being a fairly weak signal, there’s still possibility that southwestern states could receive big storms. Also in line with the La Niρa forecast, the northern half of the US could see more precipitation, especially in the northeast as those storms linger. Storms coming from Alberta could also benefit parts of the midwest significantly.

The snowfall forecast predicted by Direct Weather is fairly in-line with their general precipitation forecast. California and the southwestern US are seeing chances of below average snowfall, due to that weak La Niρa pattern.

Possibilities of above average snowfall start as far south as the Oregon/California border, with increasing confidence into Northern Washington. That confidence increases significantly the further east and north we look.

As always, take these long-term forecasts with a grain of salt.

Currently, much of the western US is hurting for snow, with parts of Washington, Oregon, and California all showing a concerning lack of snow this close to scheduled ski resort openings. In contrast, the northeast has been getting plenty of early season snow and resorts there have been opening left and right. While current conditions reflect some of this long term forecast, the west coast is really pulling for those ‘above average’ precipitation anomalies and snowfall chances!

 

 

ATTACHMENT SEVEN – FROM ABC

WINTER WEATHER HITS MIDWEST, EAST AS PACIFIC NORTHWEST BRACES FOR ATMOSPHERIC RIVER

Snow is falling Monday from Kentucky to North Carolina.

By Kenton Gewecke and Emily Shapiro   December 8, 2025, 10:10 AM

 

MILLIONS IN THE GRIP OF DEEP FREEZE

Wintry weather and bone-chilling cold continue to plague the Midwest and East Coast with Chicago digging out from another round of snow and lake effect snow hitting upstate New York.

After a weekend of snow in the Midwest, the winter weather is focused farther south on Monday, with snow hitting Virginia, West Virginia and North Carolina. Meanwhile, the Pacific Northwest is bracing for an atmospheric river set to bring dangerous flooding.

 

Here’s the latest forecast:

Chicago saw 4.6 inches of snow on Sunday, with areas north of the city getting 6 inches.

Parts of Iowa and South Dakota saw more than 9 inches of snow over the weekend.

On Monday morning, the snow is focused farther east, falling from Kentucky to North Carolina.

A winter storm warning is in place for parts of Virginia, with 2 to 5 inches of snow possible from Roanoke to Richmond.

Norfolk, Virginia, could see up to 2 inches; up to 1 inch is possible for eastern Kentucky and the Raleigh-Durham area of North Carolina; and 1 to 3 inches of snow could hit western Virginia and southern West Virginia.

The snow will end Monday evening, but residents across the region should brace for a potentially dangerous evening commute.

Meanwhile, in the Pacific Northwest, an atmospheric river is set to bring days of heavy rain to Washington, Oregon and Idaho.

A flood watch is in effect for more than 9 million people, and landslides and debris flows are also possible.

3 life-saving tactics to use if in a car during a flash flood

More than 10 inches of rain is possible just from Monday through Wednesday across parts of western Washington and Oregon.

River levels may reach major flood stage by Wednesday, and the rain will continue through the week and into the weekend. 

 

 

ATTACHMENT EIGHT – FROM CNN

MILLIONS WAKE UP TO EXTREME COLD THAT’S BREAKING RECORDS AS IT SPREADS EAST

By Briana Waxman, Chris Dolce and CNN's Andrew Freedman   Updated Dec 4, 2025

 

An arctic air mass has descended into the US, and a disrupted polar vortex will keep the nation in the freezer at times deeper into December.

More than 200 million people will wake up to freezing temperatures this week as the coldest air of the season spills across the Plains, Midwest, Great Lakes and into the Northeast in the wake of the latest winter storm to sweep across the country.

This widespread temperature plunge tied to the polar vortex puts dozens of daily cold records in play.

Arctic air has already dropped into the Plains, Midwest and Great Lakes and plunged temperatures well below zero. Dangerous snow squalls could accompany the blast of cold air as it slices across the Northeast Thursday, especially in upstate New York and central and northern New England.

Snow squalls are brief bursts of heavy snow that can create icy roads and a whiteout in an instant. They are an extreme danger to travelers and have historically caused vehicle crashes, including multi-car pileups.

Timing the record cold

Low temperature reached the double-digits below zero as far south as northern Iowa Thursday morning. A few locations have broken or tied daily record lows:

·         Aberdeen, South Dakota: minus 18 degrees (tie)

·         Spencer, Iowa: minus 17 degrees

·         Waterloo, Iowa: minus 10 degrees

·         Sioux City, Iowa: minus 9 degrees (tie)

·         Cedar Rapids, Iowa: minus 8 degrees

Afternoon temperatures across much of the Midwest will be stuck in the teens — 20 to 30 degrees lower than normal for early December. Highs rising only into the lower to middle teens might be the coldest on record for December 4 in Milwaukee and Green Bay, Wisconsin, and Des Moines, Iowa.

Records could fall from Illinois to the East Coast on Friday morning as well. Chicago could drop below its daily low temperature record of 4 degrees while South Bend, Indiana, approaches its record of 4 degrees – last set in 1899. Low temperatures will be in the teens across Pennsylvania, which would break daily records in multiple cities.

Friday morning will be the coldest day since early March in New York City with a low temperature of around 20 degrees. Records could fall for the city’s John F Kennedy and LaGuardia airports. Wind chills will sting.

BLAME THE POLAR VORTEX

The cold and winter storms hitting the US this week – and forecast to occur over the next couple of weeks – can be tied to the disruption of the polar vortex that started in late November, researchers tell CNN.

The polar vortex is a circular current of strong winds high in the atmosphere over the Arctic that keeps brutally cold air locked up in that region. Recently, though, it weakened and slid southward towards the midlatitudes, spilling cold, Arctic air into heavily populated areas.

This can create stormier conditions, said Andrea Lopez Lang, a meteorologist at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, as that cold air from up north collides with relatively warmer air.

And the weak polar vortex also means a wavier jet stream. These are the wind currents that flow west-to-east across the Northern Hemisphere. A wavy jet stream can give people weather whiplash, said Judah Cohen, a meteorologist at MIT.

Over the rest of December, we can expect frequent oscillations between milder-than-average conditions and frigid temperatures as storms move through.

However, Lopez Lang cautioned this polar vortex event isn’t the only factor behind those upcoming temperature fluctuations. “It’s definitely contributing, but it’s not the whole story,” she said.

Even with some fluctuations of milder air, the cold could be with us well into December.

Another shockwave of cold could arrive in North America by mid-December, as the polar vortex becomes “more stretched out” over the continent, said NOAA research meteorologist Amy Butler. Other experts agreed, saying they expect temperature outlooks for the end of the month to trend colder, particularly in the eastern US.

We are still about three weeks away from the official start of winter, but Mother Nature is off to quite a head start.

 

 

ATTACHMENT NINE – FROM FOX WEATHER

D.C. ACTIVATES AN 'EXTREME COLD ALERT' AS A NATIONWIDE ARCTIC BLAST PUTS MILLIONS AT RISK

Washington D.C. activated an Extreme Cold Alert on Thursday while Iowa and Minnesota reign as the first to set record-breaking low temperatures.

By Olivia Stephens , Alexandra Myers 

 

DANGEROUS BITTER COLD INVADES THE U.S.

An arctic blast is causing record-breaking low temperatures across the U.S. Most of the country is experiencing subzero temperatures. Cold weather advisories have been issued for northern New England and parts of the East Coast. 

Washington D.C. activated an Extreme Cold Alert on Thursday as overnight temperatures will be as low as 20 degrees with a wind chill. 

An Extreme Cold Alert occurs when the National Weather Service (NWS) predicts temperatures that will pose an immediate risk to residents. 

 

POLAR VORTEX: WHAT IS IT?

D.C. isn't the only area experiencing frigid weather this week. Around 180 million Americans are in the middle of an arctic blast which is causing extreme freezing temperatures. 

As of Thursday, most of the country had record lows and is expected to set more tomorrow. 

Millions of Americans have already felt portions of this bitter arctic air from the Polar Vortex sweeping across the U.S.

When there is a disruption in the Vortex, it becomes weak and pushes colder air south towards Canada and the U.S.

On top of a La Niρa winter, this has caused us to see typical temperatures for early February to appear in December.

 

ARCTIC BLAST USHERS IN FREEZING, POTENTIALLY RECORD COLD FOR 235 MILLION AMERICANS TO KICK OFF LA NIΡA WINTER

This new wave of Arctic air has already brought colder temperatures than what most of the country saw on Monday, where a Cold Weather Advisory was in effect for northern Montana and wind chills caused it to feel 20 to 30 degrees below zero. 

Many areas will stay at or below freezing, as the coldest air will linger over the High Plains and Upper Midwest, leaving cities like Chicago and Minneapolis to likely not climb above freezing for the duration of the week. 

 

CHICAGO BRACES FOR THE ARCTIC BLAST AND A SECOND SNOWSTORM

According to the FOX Weather Center, today into Friday, things take a bigger shift Thursday, as the weather pattern evolves, ushering in a stronger blast of colder Arctic air. The push is even more frigid due to the colder temperatures leading up to the big blast.

The Midwest is the focal point for the coldest temperatures today, with the widespread outlook readings between 10 and below zero, as portions of the region are already feeling -28 to -31 degrees due to wind chill this morning.

Iowa and Minnesota reign as the first record-breakers today, bringing in four record lows for the cities of Waterloo, Sioux City, Cedar Rapids and Hibbing. 

More potential records could also be broken for Des Moines, Cedar Rapids today.

Arctic blast of air dropping temps along Great Lakes, increasing ice coverage

As we near peak season for lake-effect snow, there's hardly an ice coverage on the Great Lakes, but that's about to change as single-digit temperatures settle in with an arctic blast. FOX Weather Meteorologist Jane Minar explains how ice coverage impacts lake-effect snow. 

By Friday, the heart of the cold will expand to the I-95 corridor, where more record lows may fall across cities like Pittsburgh, New York, Indianapolis and Baltimore. 

Morning temperatures across the Midwest and Great Lakes will be in the single digits, while the I-95 corridor will reach the upper 20s, making it 15 to 25 degrees below average for this time of year. 

In total, over 40 record low temperatures are possible across the Northern Tier for both today and Friday and below-average temperatures are expected to remain in some regions through mid-December.  

 

 

ATTACHMENT TEN – FROM SNOW BRAINS

[NOVEMBER UPDATE] NOAA WINTER 2025-26 FORECAST: NEW FORECAST PINPOINTS SNOWIEST (AND DRIEST) REGIONS

WeatherBrains | November 24, 2025 | 

 

The November update of the NOAA long-lead outlook delivers fresh insight into the 2025–26 winter forecast across America’s mountain regions.

·         Related: SnowBrains Winter 2025-26 Forecast: Month-by-Month and Region-by-Region — Where it’s Going to Snow This Winter

·         Related: Farmers’ Almanac Winter 2025-26 Forecast: Cold and Snowy Winter Ahead. But Where?

·         Related: Winter 2024-25 Scorecard: How the Big Names in Long Range Weather Forecasting Fared

Below is a breakdown of the key changes, detailed regional outlooks, and what winter 2025-26 may bring to skiers and riders, followed by the full discussion at the bottom.

Temperature Outlook

·         General Pattern: La Niρa conditions are expected to persist through winter, favoring a split temperature pattern across the US.

·         Colder Areas: Below-normal temperatures are favored from the Upper Mississippi Valley, Northern and Central Great Plains west to the Northern Rockies and parts of the Pacific Northwest. Early December is likely to be colder-than-normal in the Midwest and northern states due to atmospheric patterns including a negative Arctic Oscillation and a modulating Madden-Julian Oscillation.

·         Warmer Areas: Above-normal temperatures are favored across much of the East Coast, Southeast, Gulf Coast, Texas, Southwest, and California. Florida Peninsula and parts of the Southwest have the highest confidence for above-normal temperatures.

·         Alaska: Southeastern Alaska is likely to be colder than normal, while northwestern Alaska is expected to be warmer than normal.

Precipitation Outlook

·         Snowiest/Wettest Areas: The Northern Rockies, Northern Great Plains, Upper Mississippi Valley, Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and parts of the Pacific Northwest and western mainland Alaska are favored to have above-normal precipitation, increasing snowfall potential in these ski regions.

·         Driest Areas: Drier-than-normal conditions are expected across much of the southern tier of the US—especially the Southeast, Gulf Coast, Texas, Southwest, and southern California. Below-normal precipitation is also favored for southeastern Alaska, though this has trended wetter recently.

·         Mountain Ranges & Ski Resorts:

o    Northern Rockies and Northern High Plains: Most likely to see above-average snowfall, making resorts here strong candidates for good ski conditions.

o    Pacific Northwest: Mixed signals; some wetness expected, but overall more variable precipitation chances.

o    Sierra Nevada: December may bring increased precipitation, possibly extending into January, benefiting ski resorts.

o    Southwest Ski Areas (southern Utah, southern Colorado, New Mexico, Arizona): Below-normal snowfall is anticipated, indicating a drier winter.

o    Central and Northern Rockies: Snowfall near or above normal is likely, supporting skiing.

Changes Since October Update

·         The outlook now indicates a slightly warmer southern tier (including the Southwest and Florida) than what was anticipated earlier in the fall.

·         The precipitation outlook has been adjusted to show less pronounced dryness in the southern Southwest, reflecting recent wetter-than-normal conditions in October and November that could continue.

·         Confidence remains high for a typical La Niρa pattern with colder and snowier conditions in the northern half of the US and drier, warmer conditions in the south.

Summary for Skiers

·         For the best snow this winter, focus on the Northern Rockies (Montana and Idaho), the Northern High Plains, the Upper Mississippi Valley, the Great Lakes region, and the Ohio Valley.

·         The Pacific Northwest and Sierra Nevada have potential for solid snowfall, especially early to mid-winter.

·         Ski resorts in the southern Rockies and Southwest should prepare for below-average snowfall and drier conditions.

·         East Coast ski areas might experience warmer conditions overall, but northern states near the Great Lakes and the Ohio Valley could see colder and snowier weather.

This forecast suggests a classic La Niρa winter pattern with a strong north-south temperature and precipitation contrast, providing a good outlook for snowy conditions in the northern U.S. mountain ranges and much drier, warmer conditions in the southern ski areas.

 

 

ATTACHMENT ELEVEN – FROM WEATHER BRAINS

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD SEASONAL OUTLOOKS

NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD

830 AM EST Thu Nov 20 2025

 

SUMMARY OF THE OUTLOOK FOR NON-TECHNICAL USERS

La Niρa conditions continue with sea surface temperatures (SSTs) below average

across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. La Niρa is slightly

favored to persist through December-January-February but is likely to remain

weak. A transition to ENSO-neutral conditions is expected by early spring 2026.

 

The December-January-February (DJF) 2025-26 Temperature Outlook favors

above-normal temperatures across much of the East Coast, Southeast, Gulf Coast,

Texas, the Southwest, and California. The DJF Temperature Outlook leans towards

below-normal temperatures from the Upper Mississippi Valley and Northern to

Central Great Plains west to parts of the Pacific Northwest. An increased

chance of below (above)-normal temperatures is forecast for southeastern

(northwestern) Alaska.

 

The DJF Precipitation Outlook depicts elevated below-normal precipitation

probabilities for portions of the Mid-Atlantic, Southeast, Gulf Coast, Texas,

the Southwest, and California. Above-normal precipitation is favored from the

Upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes south to the Ohio Valley along with

the Northern Great Plains, Northern Rockies, and parts of the Pacific

Northwest. An increased chance of below (above)-normal precipitation is

forecast for southeastern (northwestern) Alaska.

 

Areas depicted in white and labeled "Equal-Chances" or "EC" are regions where

climate signals  are weak, and so there are equal chances for either above-,

near- or below-normal seasonal mean temperatures or total precipitation amounts.

 

BASIS AND SUMMARY OF THE CURRENT LONG-LEAD OUTLOOKS

Note: For Graphical Displays of the Forecast Tools Discussed Below See:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/tools/briefing

 

CURRENT ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS

 

Weekly observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Niρo 3.4 region are

below average throughout the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. The latest

weekly SST departure, centered on November 12, is -0.7 degrees C. The negative

SST anomalies recently expanded eastward across the equatorial Pacific to the

South American coast. Since the beginning of September, subsurface temperature

anomalies (averaged from 180-100W and 0-300 meters depth) have remained

negative with little change in magnitude.

 

From October 17 to November 11, negative outgoing longwave radiation (OLR)

anomalies (enhanced convection and precipitation) continued over Indonesia,

Southeast Asia, the Philippines, and parts of northern Australia. Conversely,

positive OLR anomalies (suppressed convection and precipitation) were observed

at and near the Date Line. Low-level (850-hPa) wind anomalies were easterly

from the western to the east-central equatorial Pacific Ocean, while

upper-level (200-hPa) wind anomalies were westerly over most of the equatorial

Pacific. These atmospheric and oceanic conditions reflect La Niρa conditions.

 

The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) slowed and weakened during mid-November as

it destructively interfered with the La Niρa background state. Dynamical model

Realtime Multivariate MJO (RMM) forecasts depict a strengthening MJO with

eastward propagation over the West Pacific from late November to the beginning

of December. The extratropical response, associated with a West Pacific MJO,

favors an amplifying 500-hPa ridge (trough) over Alaska (west-central CONUS) by

the end of November which would promote anomalous cold to shift southeast into

the lower 48 states.

 

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION OF SST FORECASTS

 

The CPC SST consolidation forecast for Niρo 3.4 depicts La Niρa conditions

persisting through at least DJF as the SST anomaly remains near -0.5 degrees C.

The dynamical models  and the Constructed Analog are in good agreement that SSTs

become closer to average by later in the winter or early next spring. The

International Multimodel Ensemble (C3S) members depict a similar timing of when

the transition to ENSO-neutral conditions happens. The CPC ENSO outlook

indicates that La Niρa is favored to persist through DJF before a transition to

ENSO-neutral conditions during January-February-March. ENSO-neutral is strongly

favored (near or more than a 70 percent chance) through the 2026 spring.

 

PROGNOSTIC TOOLS USED FOR U.S. TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS

 

The Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks for DJF 2025-26 were based on La

Niρa composites, expectations for periods of a negative Arctic Oscillation, the

North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME), and the Copernicus (C3S)

multi-model ensemble system. A Calibration, Bridging, and Merging (CBaM)

version of the NMME was also considered. An objective, historical

skill-weighted consolidation that includes the NMME along with statistical

tools such as the SST-based Constructed Analog and the ENSO-OCN was used

through April-May-June 2026. Beyond that time, the consolidation only includes

statistical tools. Long-term climate trends  were considered for all leads, but

were relied upon most during the summer and fall 2026.

 

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION OF OUTLOOKS - DJF 2025 TO DJF 2026

 

TEMPERATURE

 

The DJF Temperature Outlook was based largely on La Niρa composites, the

calibrated NMME where it is more skillful over previous winter seasons, and the

consolidation tool. High-latitude blocking has been quite prevalent since

mid-October with the Arctic Oscillation (AO) in a negative phase for much of

the past month. The GEFS and ECENS favor a persistence of a negative AO into

the beginning of December. The Madden-Julian Oscillation is forecast to

strengthen and propagate east over the West Pacific (phase 7). This MJO

evolution can lead to an amplifying mid-level ridge over Alaska and an outbreak

of anomalously cold temperatures shifting southeast from the north-central to

eastern CONUS. Due to a persistent negative AO and an expected MJO influence,

early December is likely to be colder-than-normal across the Midwest and the

December outlook depicts elevated below-normal temperature probabilities for

this region. This favored colder-than-normal forecast for December was a factor

in expanding the slight lean towards below southeastward compared to the DJF

outlook released in October. In addition to the negative AO and MJO influences,

the stratospheric polar vortex is forecast to become stretched and displaced

off the North Pole. Although a major sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) is not

forecast by the GEFS, the ECMWF ensemble mean from November 18 depicts a slight

reversal of 10-hPa zonal winds at 60N consistent with a SSW, which could

prolong the negative AO. A SSW would be very rare for this time of year. Even

if a SSW does not occur during late November, this may set the stage for

additional polar vortex disruptions and a major SSW with impacts to the

troposphere later this winter. Temperatures are expected to be highly variable

along and north of the 40th parallel this winter which is typical during La

Niρa. The DJF outlook leans towards below-normal temperatures from the Upper

Mississippi Valley and Northern to Central Great Plains west to the Northern

Rockies and parts of the Pacific Northwest where below-normal temperatures

occur most frequently during La Niρa winters and there is additional support

from the consolidation tool. The calibrated NMME supports an increased chance

of above-normal temperatures for much of California, the Southwest, Rio Grande

Valley, Gulf Coast, Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, and southern New England. Due to

good agreement and consistency among the tools, the highest forecast confidence

in the DJF Temperature Outlook is for above-normal temperatures (50-60 percent

chance) across the Florida Peninsula and parts of the Southwest. In between the

favored above across the southern tier and below farther to the north, equal

chances of below, near, or above-normal temperatures are forecast as these

areas are expected to have the most temperature variability this winter. The

Alaska Temperature Outlook is quite consistent with La Niρa composites and

dynamical models which call for an increased chance of below (above)-normal

temperatures for southeastern (northwestern) Alaska.

 

The January-February-March (JFM) and February-March-April Temperature Outlooks

hedged slightly colder than the dynamical model guidance across the Great

Plains due to the potential for additional periods of a negative AO phase and

at least one Arctic air outbreak in January and/or February. It should be noted

that probabilities for below or above-normal temperatures are less than 50

percent throughout the forecast domain during JFM as forecast confidence is

tempered due to the expectation of a highly variable pattern within this

three-month period. By April-May-June, above-normal temperatures become the

most likely category for a majority of the lower 48 states and Alaska, and then

the entire forecast domain is favored to have above-normal temperatures during

September-October-November consistent with long-term trends .

 

PRECIPITATION

 

The DJF precipitation outlook is consistent with La Niρa composites as the

southern tier of the CONUS is typically drier-than-normal with above-normal

precipitation more likely for the Northern Rockies, Northern Great Plains,

Upper Mississippi Valley, and from the Great Lakes south to the Ohio and

Tennessee Valleys. Despite a wet signal in La Niρa composites for western parts

of Oregon and Washington, equal chances (EC) for below, near, or above-normal

precipitation are forecast based on the NMME and consolidation tool. Compared

to the previous month's release, below-normal precipitation probabilities were

decreased to below 40 percent for southern California and the Southwest as the

SST-Constructed Analog has a wetter signal for these areas. Also, the unusually

wet October and November decrease forecast confidence that below-normal

precipitation will verify during DJF. The highest confidence in below-normal

precipitation across the southern tier of the CONUS exists for portions of the

Southeast where drier-than-normal winters are very reliable during La Niρa.

Below-normal precipitation probabilities decrease to the south across the

Florida Peninsula due in part to the drier winter climatology. Elevated

below-normal precipitation probabilities extend northward to the Mid-Atlantic

as the primary storm track is expected to be farther to the west across the

Ohio Valley. This favored winter storm track results in enhanced above-normal

precipitation probabilities for the Ohio Valley. It is typical to have a tight

gradient between above and below normal precipitation from the Tennessee Valley

south to the Gulf Coast during La Niρa winters. Based on La Niρa composites and

good model agreement, the largest above-normal precipitation probabilities

(more than 50 percent) are forecast across the Northern Rockies and Northern

High Plains. Good model consistency supports an increased chance of

above-normal precipitation for western Mainland Alaska. Overall the

precipitation tools have trended wetter for southeastern Alaska where now the

DJF outlook only slightly leans towards the drier side.

 

Although a transition to ENSO-neutral conditions is likely to occur during

January-February-March 2026, a La Niρa influence on the mid-latitude

circulation pattern and anomalous precipitation is expected to linger through

the late winter or even early spring. Therefore, the JFM and

February-March-April Precipitation Outlooks are similar to La Niρa composites

with minor adjustments based on the NMME, C3S, and consolidation. Later in the

spring and into the summer 2026, the coverage of EC increases due to weak

and/or conflicting signals  among forecast guidance. At the longer lead times,

long-term trends were used to identify any areas with either favored below or

above-normal precipitation.

 

 

ATTACHMENT TWELVE – FROM EURONEWS

IS THE WINTER OF THE CENTURY COMING? EXPERTS SEE CHANCE OF ARCTIC COLD SPELLS

Published on 12/06/2025 - 21:50 GMT+2 •Updated 07/12/2025 - 8:25 GMT+1

 

A weak polar vortex could make for a harsh winter in Germany. Experts are currently still divided, but warn it could be particularly frosty after Christmas.

According to meteorologists, the so-called polar vortex will be weaker than usual this winter. For Germany, this will most likely mean a cold winter with Arctic cold spells, according to experts.

The last time a meridional weather pattern led to a winter of the century in Germany was in 1978/79. Back then, people experienced heavy snowfall, snowstorms and unusually low temperatures.

White Christmas or baby Jesus in the mud?

The current weather models paint a generally mild picture for the days around Christmas albeit with isolated cold outliers. This is also confirmed by the 42-day trend from wetter.de.

The European Weather Centre's long-term model also indicates a cooling, but only after the holidays. Only the American National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is expecting significantly higher temperatures on average for the month. However, as this average is strongly influenced by the next two weeks, this does not contradict a possible subsequent cooling.

In short: the situation remains open.

January: freezing cold or early spring?

In January, experts mainly point to changeable, rather mild tendencies, little winter, and lots of grey.

This puts the NOAA model on the same track, although its calculations have recently fluctuated considerably. The European European Forest Fire Information System (EFFIS) models are interesting: they show a January that could be slightly cooler and drier than the long-term averages.

Such weather conditions would indicate a stable high pressure over Central Europe. And high pressure in January can be deceptive: during the day, everything looks friendly, but fog and cooling quickly lead to permafrost and frost.

Then there is the polar vortex factor. Especially in the height of winter, it tends to cause disturbances that can direct cold Arctic air towards Europe. Although no current model shows an imminent collapse of the polar vortex, the high pressure tendencies are basically in line with such a development.

La Niρa and El Niρo

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Centre has also confirmed that La Niρa conditions are present this year and are expected to persist until December 2025 - February 2026. In general, La Niρa leads to colder than normal temperatures in Western Europe.

La Niρa is part of a natural climate cycle but, like El Niρo, can cause extreme weather worldwide. It occurs when sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean fall below average. It is the exact opposite of the warm El Niρo phase.

Both La Niρa and El Niρo can have far-reaching effects on global weather patterns, including in Europe, but the further away a location is from the Pacific Ocean, the stronger these effects can be.

As a rule, La Niρa also brings wetter and colder conditions to the Alps, which can lead to more frequent and heavier snowfall. So for skiers, the prospect of a winter of the century could be welcome news.

 

 

ATTACHMENT THIRTEEN – FROM ISRAEL HAYOM   

STORM BYRON IS COMING: SEVERE COLD, FLOODING, POWER OUTAGES

Emergency and rescue authorities are preparing for the rainfall wave "Byron," expected to begin on Wednesday and bring flash floods and strong winds to many locations across the country.

By Assaf Golan    Published on  12-08-2025 11:00   Last modified: 12-08-2025 18:35

 

Emergency and rescue authorities are preparing for the rainfall wave "Byron," expected to begin on Wednesday and bring flash floods and strong winds to many locations across the country. Authorities have warned the public against going out to vulnerable areas and approaching streams during the storm, calling for early preparation and strict adherence to safety rules.

The Nature and Parks Authority has issued a severe warning ahead of the expected rainfall wave, emphasizing serious concern about flash floods in the Dead Sea streams, the Judea Desert, and the Jordan Valley. According to the announcement, there is an absolute prohibition on entering stream channels on foot or by vehicle until the water level drops completely due to danger to life. In addition, the authority emphasized that even approaching a stream bank during a flood is dangerous due to the risk of bank collapse.

The Sharon Drainage and Streams Authority published a similar request to the public, noting that during the storm period, it is important to avoid arriving at flow points and streams, even if they appear calm. The authority emphasized that, in the event of floods, blockages, or exceptional flows, reports should be made to emergency centers at local authorities and action taken in accordance with the rescue forces' instructions.

MDA guidelines and public preparation

MDA has published special guidelines ahead of Storm Byron's arrival, noting that the organization is fully prepared to treat any injuries resulting from the weather. MDA CEO Eli Bin instructed forces to raise preparedness to the highest levels, using dedicated rescue vehicles adapted to field conditions.

MDA announced that preparation for the storm should be done responsibly and that essential safety rules should be followed. People should avoid using elevators during floods, not enter underground parking lots during heavy rain, and evacuate underground residential areas if there is danger of water penetration.

MDA recommended strict adherence to safe driving on rainy days, maintaining body heat for at-risk populations, and maintaining heating stove functionality. In addition, they noted that clothes should not be dried on heating stoves and proper ventilation must be ensured when operating them.

The organization warned against slipping in places where ice or snow accumulates, and emphasized the importance of periodic checking of electrical and heating devices. Additionally, the public was asked to maintain contact with elderly family members and ensure they are prepared for the harsh weather conditions.

MDA also noted that backup batteries for respiratory devices should be verified to function properly and that essential equipment should be available in case of a power outage.


ATTACHMENT FOURTEEN – FROM CBS 

INDONESIA SUFFERS FOOD, MEDICAL SHORTAGES AS ASIA FLOOD TOLLS RISE

Dec 8, 2025 

 

 

Regions hit by floods that killed hundreds in Indonesia were suffering from food and medical shortages, authorities said, as elephants pitched in on Monday to help clear up debris.

Tropical storms and monsoon rains have pummelled Southeast and South Asia this month, triggering landslides and flash floods from the rainforests of Indonesia's western Sumatra island to highland plantations in Sri Lanka.

"Everything is lacking, especially medical personnel. We are short on doctors," Muzakir Manaf, the governor of Indonesia's Aceh province, told reporters late Sunday.

Indonesia's national disaster mitigation agency (BNPB) said 961 people in Aceh, North Sumatra and West Sumatra had been killed, while 293 were missing. More than a million people were displaced, the agency said.

Sri Lanka's military meanwhile deployed thousands of extra troops to aid recovery efforts after a devastating cyclone caused a wave of destruction and killed 635 people.

In Pidie Jaya, a district in Indonesia's Aceh badly affected by the floods, four elephants from a nearby training centre picked up large pieces of rubble with their trunks and helped shift stuck vehicles.

"We brought four elephants to clear the debris from the houses of the communities that were swept away by the flood," Hadi Sofyan, the head of a local conservation agency, told AFP.

"Our target is to clean the debris near the residents' houses so they can access their homes," he said, adding the elephants would be used for the rest of the week.

The downpours and subsequent landslides throughout western Indonesia have injured at least 5,000 people and devastated infrastructure, including schools and hospitals.

In the city of Banda Aceh, long queues formed for drinking water and fuel, and prices of basic commodities such as eggs were skyrocketing, an AFP correspondent said.

Costs to rebuild after the disaster could run up to 51.82 trillion rupiah ($3.1 billion), the BNPB said late Sunday.

- Extra troops -

In Sri Lanka, more than two million people -- nearly 10 percent of the population -- have been affected by Cyclone Ditwah, the worst on the island this century.

Sri Lanka is expecting further heavy monsoon rains this week, topping five centimetres in many places, the Disaster Management Centre (DMC) said. It issued warnings of further landslides.

Army chief Lasantha Rodrigo said 38,500 security personnel had been deployed to boost recovery and clean-up operations in flood-affected and landslide-hit areas, nearly doubling the initial deployment.

"Since the disaster, security forces have been able to rescue 31,116 people who were in distress," Rodrigo said in a statement.

President Anura Kumara Dissanayake unveiled a recovery package, offering 10 million rupees ($33,000) for victims to buy land in safer areas and rebuild.

The government will also offer livelihood support and cash assistance to replace kitchen utensils and bedding and to buy food.

It is not clear how much the relief package will cost the government, which is still emerging from an economic meltdown in 2022 when it ran out of foreign exchange reserves to finance even essential imports.

Dissanayake has said the government cannot fund reconstruction alone and has appealed for foreign assistance, including from the International Monetary Fund. 

Seasonal monsoon rains are a feature of life in South Asia and Southeast Asia, flooding rice fields and nourishing the growth of other key crops. 

However, climate change is making the phenomenon more erratic, unpredictable, and deadly throughout the regions.

 

 

ATTACHMENT FIFTEEN – FROM IRC

WINTER IN UKRAINE

What Ukrainians need to survive their toughest winter yet

December 1, 2022  Last updated: November 20, 2025

 

·    Ukraine faces its harshest winter yet as intensified attacks destroy homes and infrastructure.

·    Millions lack heat, electricity and resources, with over 12.7 million needing urgent assistance.

·    Elderly people and communities near the frontlines are among the most at risk.

·    The IRC is providing cash support, medical care and protection services to help families survive winter.

 

As Ukraine endures another harsh winter, millions are struggling to stay warm with depleted resources and little to no savings to carry them through the cold months. Drone and missile strikes are taking an even heavier toll this year. Civilian casualties have surged dramatically in 2025, while widespread destruction of homes and critical infrastructure has left communities exposed to freezing temperatures. This could be Ukraine’s toughest winter since the full-scale invasion began in February 2022. 

More than 12.7 million people urgently need humanitarian assistance, and as temperatures drop and airstrikes intensify, conditions will worsen. 

Since February 2022, the International Rescue Committee (IRC) has been on the ground in Ukraine, providing support to millions of people affected by the war. 

This winter, we are providing cash assistance to help people purchase blankets, coats, heaters and fuel for stoves, so they can stay safe through the coldest months. Our medical teams continue to respond where support is needed most—from frontline villages to remote communities—ensuring that women and children, the elderly and people living with chronic conditions get the essential care they deserve.

What are conditions like in Ukraine?

Conflict has shaken eastern Ukraine since 2014, but the situation has drastically worsened since the full-scale war began in February 2022. Civilians have not been spared—more than 53,000 civilian casualties have been recorded since 2022, and the number continues to rise. Civilian casualties from January to October 2025 were 27% higher than the same period in the previous year.

Intensified attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure and residential areas have made life especially challenging, particularly in areas facing the heaviest fighting. Nearly 3.7 million remain displaced within Ukraine, and nationwide estimates suggest that nearly 2 million homes have been destroyed. 

Damage to Ukraine’s power grid has resulted in daily blackouts that can last up to 20 hours, disrupting both electricity and water supplies. Thousands of attacks on hospitals, schools and other essential facilities have also been reported.

How cold is winter in Ukraine?

Winters in Ukraine are cold and snowy, with temperatures often plunging well below freezing. From December to March, average temperatures range between 23 degrees Fahrenheit (-4.8 C) and 36 degrees Fahrenheit (2 C). In some regions where the IRC works, temperatures regularly drop as low as -5 degrees Fahrenheit (-21.6 C).

Many of the nearly 3.7 million people displaced within Ukraine are living in collective shelters that lack adequate winter protection. On the frontlines, families live in damaged homes, often without reliable heating or electricity. 

Who is most vulnerable during the winter in Ukraine?

Humanitarian action is critical as the harsh winter season adds new risks for people already facing displacement, loss of income and damaged infrastructure. While the entire country is affected, the situation is especially concerning in front-line and border communities in eastern Ukraine, such as Kherson, Sumy and Kharkiv. Rural communities face increasing difficulty accessing healthcare, with IRC data identifying a range of challenges that are contributing to medical staff shortages in these areas.

Elderly people are especially vulnerable to the dangers of winter in Ukraine. Many are less mobile and may be physically unable to leave their homes to seek safety. As conflict and cold weather disrupt their communities, the elderly often lose access to everyday services they rely on for food and care.

Limited electricity and communication services have also made it more difficult for families to take care of their parents and grandparents. At times, they may not even know if their family member is still alive.

 

 

ATTACHMENT SIXTEEN – FROM BLOOMBERG

RISING POLAR VORTEX THREAT FOR US, ASIA AND EUROPE SIGNALS HIGHER WINTER ENERGY BILLS

 

The odds of extreme cold this winter in the US, Asia and parts of Europe are climbing, threatening to boost energy bills for consumers already grappling with high costs and economic uncertainty.

With the season’s start just weeks away, meteorologists see many of the same conditions that led to one of the warmest winters on record last year for the Northern Hemisphere. But there’s one key difference: Signs are emerging that the polar vortex, the girdle of winds around the Arctic, could weaken and allow frigid air to spill southward. 

A deep freeze would likely mean higher prices for power and natural gas, adding to the cost burden for ratepayers as inflation remains stubbornly high and major economies show signs of persistent weakness. In the US, a jump in power demand from data centers and artificial intelligence has sent wholesale electricity costs soaring — an increase that’s being passed on to consumers.

Winter is the most turbulent time of year for weather, said Jennifer Francis, a senior scientist at the Woodwell Climate Research Center. The fluctuating conditions have major consequences for a wide variety of markets and industries, from energy and transportation to retail. The Northern Hemisphere’s worst weather also arrives with a series of immovable deadlines, including Christmas and Lunar New Year, when planes, people and cargo need to arrive on time.

“Further into December, keep an eye on the polar vortex,” said Dan Hart, a meteorologist at London-based OpenWeather Ltd. 

Of course, there’s no guarantee that temperatures will plunge early enough in the winter to have a significant impact on energy demand. Last year, the polar vortex didn’t break apart until March.

But now, a set of winds called the quasi-biennial oscillation is blowing to the east. That movement may spark a phenomenon known as sudden stratospheric warming — a rapid, dramatic rise in temperature in a layer of the atmosphere — that ultimately leads to a weakening of the polar vortex, according to Judah Cohen, director of seasonal forecasting at Verisk Atmospheric and Environmental Research. 

If sudden stratospheric warming occurs earlier than it did last year, “that would have important implications for the overall winter weather,” Cohen said.

US CHILL

For the US, winter will likely come in a bit cooler than normal and definitely colder than last year, said Matt Rogers, president of commercial forecaster Commodity Weather Group. 

The northern tier of the country from the Pacific Northwest to central New England will likely be cooler than average, with the highest chance of below-normal temperatures in the northern Great Plains and Great Lakes, CWG predicts. The South will probably get near-normal or slightly warmer-than-average temperatures, including Texas, which saw its power grid collapse in 2021 when a breakdown in the polar vortex unleashed a winter storm that killed more than 200 people.

There is a chance for more snow in the Midwest and Northeast this year, with the exception of large cities along the coast from Washington to New York, according to AccuWeather Inc.

Homes in the Midwest will likely spend 2% more on gas heating this winter, the US Energy Information Administration predicts. The cost of electric heat – used mainly in the US South – could rise about 4%, the most in three years, the EIA said. But the jump is almost entirely the result of higher retail power prices as AI drives a demand surge.

Intense cold would also put some US winter wheat crops at risk. Plants can be damaged by frigid temperatures if they aren’t insulated under a layer of snow. This could cut yields early next year.

CHINA GAS THREAT

La Niρa, a cooling of the Pacific Ocean’s surface, could bring on a colder winter across many regions of China, which raises the risk of gas shortages, Morgan Stanley analyst Jack Lu wrote in a note to clients.

“As a result, gas consumption could spike along with gas price hikes for both wholesale and retail,” Lu wrote.

That lines up with China’s official winter forecast, which is predicting below-normal temperatures across the country’s south and northeast.

 

The similarities to last year’s weather map also raise the chances for a chill in southern Japan, while the north is milder and the west remains near average, according to Emma Blades of New Zealand’s MetService, which provides data and analysis for power traders in Japan.

Those looking to hit Japan’s ski slopes this season can be cautiously optimistic. There’s potential for heavy snowfall and good snowpack development this winter on the Sea of Japan side of the country, which will also help fill hydroelectricity catchments, said Blades.

EUROPE COLD RISK

While forecasters and major weather models are projecting a mild winter on average in Europe, there is growing evidence that the relatively temperate conditions could be punctured by frequent cold spells this winter, especially in northern and central Europe.

A growing number of simulations from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, which is widely considered to have the most consistently reliable global weather models, show that outcome. They’re projecting unusually weak high-altitude polar winds in November and December.

European gas prices have swung in recent weeks as traders assess the potential intensity of the chill. While strong seaborne imports have helped to top up storage, a cold snap earlier in the heating season has already caused some countries to tap into inventories.

Depending on the severity of the cold, it could pose a risk to winter-wheat crops in the European Union, one of the world’s biggest exporters of the grain. The crop lies dormant over the winter, but can lose some of its hardiness when temperatures frequently fluctuate and suffer damage during a deep chill. 

“The odds are heightened” of that kind of polar vortex weakening happening this winter, said Rob Hutchinson, a meteorologist at Swiss-based weather analytics firm Meteomatics AG. But he said the effect will depend on the timing and location of any frigid air that breaks free from Arctic latitudes — and if it can overcome other warm trends.

“We’ve always got the competing factor of global warming, and it’s just ever harder to get deep cold into Europe,” he said.

 

 

ATTACHMENT SEVENTEEN – FROM ACCU WEATHER

POLAR VORTEX TO BRING TRIPLE WHAMMY OF ARCTIC COLD TO US THROUGH MID-DECEMBER

A shifting polar vortex will send multiple rounds of Arctic air into the central and eastern United States through the first half of December. The cold waves will be accompanied by opportunities for accumulating snow.

By Alex Sosnowski, AccuWeather senior meteorologist   Published Dec 2, 2025 1:34 PM EST | Updated Dec 5, 2025 5:02 AM EST

See charts, graphs and maps here

 

From snow in central Virginia on Dec. 5 to more chances for wintry weather in the Northeast in the coming days and an atmospheric river approaching the Northwest, busy weather patterns are ahead.

The polar vortex is taking up a position near Hudson Bay, Canada, and will direct rounds of Arctic air southward from the North Pole to parts of the central and eastern United States through the middle of the month. The waves of Arctic air will trigger rounds of flurries and squalls in some areas and may help fuel storms with patches of accumulating snow.

The Arctic air is expected to deliver subzero temperatures from the Dakotas and Minnesota to Iowa and Nebraska and by far the lowest temperatures of the season to date for much of the rest of the Central states and Northeast.

"These Arctic air outbreaks can be attributed to a displacement of the polar vortex," AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Meteorologist Paul Pastelok said.

"The outbreak this week will be the first of probably three such rounds with it. Another cold blast is likely next week and a third the week after that," Pastelok explained. "The waves of Arctic air will lead to significant surges in energy demands."

The setup into the weekend may require full midwinter clothing and outerwear. In areas where ski resorts have not received significant natural snow, snowmaking operations are expected to be in full swing to gear up for the ski season. 

A breeze and patchy cloud cover may keep temperatures above the season's lowest to date for parts of the Southeast, especially the Florida Peninsula, until next week. Still, rounds of cold weather will bring the risk of hard freezes to the interior of the Southeastern states.

Those who have not completed winterizing their homes and water lines or had their furnaces checked and heating oil or propane ordered may want to do so as soon as possible.

The first Arctic front swept off the Northeast coast Thursday night. Flurries, snow showers and heavier snow squalls accompanied the front across New York state and New England.

A frigid Friday morning is underway from the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes to the Northeast. A gusty wind will add to the harshness in the Northeast early Friday morning. Some of the traditional cold spots over the interior Northeast have dropped well below zero and temperatures dipped to near 20 below zero in the Adirondacks of northeastern New York.

Temperatures have dropped down into the teens in Boston Friday morning, with widespread lows in the 20s from New York City to Washington, D.C.

Exactly how the cold push interacts with a storm over the southern U.S. will determine the extent of accumulating snow and a slippery mixture of snow, ice and rain versus just rain through Friday in the eastern part of the nation.

During this weekend, the advance of a new batch of Arctic air will contribute to a new swath of snow from the northern half of the Plains to the Midwest. Snow will accumulate in areas that were blanketed by moderate to heavy snow just a week earlier.

Travelers on highways and by air should be prepared for potential delays. Some school delays, early dismissals or cancellations are also possible.

Continue Reading:

Storm focusing snow, slippery travel on Virginia, Maryland and Delaware

Minneapolis was briefly colder than Mars as wintry weather expands

Northwest bracing for flooding rain, feet of snow as storms line up

 

 

ATTACHMENT EIGHTEEN – FROM AI OVERVIEW

AI OVERVIEW  POLAR VORTEX SCIENCE

 

The polar vortex is a massive, high-altitude swirl of frigid air over the poles, a normal winter phenomenon that usually keeps cold air contained; an Arctic blast is the resulting event on the ground—a surge of that bitter cold air spilling south into mid-latitudes when the vortex weakens and becomes wobbly. Think of the vortex as the giant freezer door and the Arctic blast as the icy wind that escapes when the door briefly opens or cracks. 

Polar Vortex

·         What it is: A large, counter-clockwise circulation of cold air high in the atmosphere (stratosphere/upper troposphere) around the Arctic and Antarctic.

·         Normal behavior: Strong and stable, keeping the coldest air locked over the poles.

·         Disruption: Weakens, stretches, or wobbles, often due to warming in the stratosphere or strong storms below, allowing lobes of frigid air to dip south. 

Arctic Blast

·         What it is: The impact felt on the ground—a rapid, intense influx of extremely cold, dry Arctic air.

·         Cause: A disrupted, weakened polar vortex sends the polar jet stream south, carrying the vortex's frigid air mass with it.

·         Characteristics: Can bring snow, ice, and dangerously low temperatures, lasting from days to weeks. 

Key Difference

·         Polar Vortex: The source or system (the upper-air weather pattern).

·         Arctic Blast: The result or event (the cold outbreak on the surface). 

 

 

ATTACHMENT NINETEEN – FROM GREAT FALLS CLINIC HOSPITAL

COLD WEATHER HEALTH RISKS: WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW TO STAY SAFE THIS WINTER

December 8, 2025

 

As temperatures drop, cold weather can have a significant impact on health, affecting everyone from outdoor enthusiasts to commuters. Understanding how frigid conditions affect your body is essential for preventing serious health complications during the winter months in Great Falls, MT. While many people associate cold weather with minor discomforts like chapped lips or dry skin, the reality is that exposure to low temperatures can lead to life-threatening conditions that require immediate medical attention.

Recognize How Your Body Fights the Cold

When exposed to the cold, your body initiates a sophisticated defense mechanism to maintain its core temperature at approximately 98.6°F. Blood vessels in the extremities constrict, redirecting warm blood to vital organs like the heart, lungs, and brain. While this vasoconstriction protects essential functions, it leaves your fingers, toes, ears, and nose vulnerable to cold-related injuries.

Your body also generates heat through shivering, which increases metabolic activity. However, this defense system has limits. Prolonged exposure, inadequate clothing, or wet conditions can overwhelm these protective mechanisms, leading to serious health consequences ranging from mild discomfort to fatal outcomes.1

Protect Yourself from Life-Threatening Cold Weather Conditions

Boost Your Immune Defenses During Winter

Increased illness susceptibility occurs because cold weather forces people indoors, where viruses spread more easily, while cold air weakens immune defenses in the respiratory tract. The combination of dry indoor heating and cold outdoor air creates optimal conditions for respiratory infections. Prevention includes frequent handwashing, maintaining indoor humidity levels, getting vaccinated against flu and pneumonia, and supporting immune function through adequate sleep and nutrition.2

Keep Your Airways Clear in Frigid Temperatures

Respiratory problems worsen in cold weather as frigid air irritates airways, triggering bronchospasm and increased mucus production. Cold temperatures constrict airways, making breathing difficult for those with asthma, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), or bronchitis.

·         Symptoms: wheezing, coughing, chest tightness, and shortness of breath.

·         Risk factors: pre-existing respiratory conditions, smoking, and exposure to air pollution.

Treatment includes using prescribed inhalers before outdoor exposure, wearing scarves over the mouth to warm inhaled air, and consulting healthcare providers about adjusting medications during the winter months.3

Guard Your Heart Against Cold Weather Stress

Cardiovascular strain increases significantly in cold weather as blood vessels constrict and blood pressure rises. The heart must work harder to pump blood through narrowed vessels, increasing the risk of heart attacks and strokes. Cold air also triggers arterial spasms and increases blood clotting.

·         Symptoms: chest pain, shortness of breath, irregular heartbeat, and fatigue.

·         Risk factors: existing heart conditions, high blood pressure, high cholesterol, and sedentary lifestyles.

Treatment involves limiting outdoor exposure during extreme cold, warming up gradually before strenuous activity, and seeking immediate medical care for chest pain or cardiac symptoms.4

Stop Hypothermia Before It Starts

Hypothermia occurs when core body temperature drops below 95°F.

·         Symptoms: intense shivering, numbness, confusion, slurred speech, and loss of coordination. As it progresses, shivering stops and consciousness fades.

·         At risk: elderly individuals, infants, those with chronic illnesses, and anyone in wet clothing.

Treatment involves gradually rewarming, removing wet clothing, providing warm beverages if the person is conscious, and seeking immediate emergency care for severe cases.5

Prevent Frostbite Damage to Your Extremities

Frostbite freezes skin and underlying tissues, typically affecting fingers, toes, nose, and ears.

·         Symptoms: numbness, tingling, pale or waxy-looking skin, and, in severe cases, hard, blistered areas that turn black.

·         Risk factors: inadequate clothing, tight footwear, smoking, and conditions like diabetes.

Treatment requires moving to a warm place, avoiding rubbing frozen tissue, gradually rewarming in warm water, and seeking medical attention for severe cases.6

Understanding these cold-weather health risks empowers individuals to take preventive measures, recognize early warning signs, and respond appropriately to protect themselves and others during the winter months. If you experience symptoms of cold-related illness or injury, prompt medical attention is essential.

Sources:

1.    (2024). Body Temperature Regulation Neuroscience. Michigan State University. https://www.justintimemedicine.com/curriculum/6935

2.    (2023). Boost Your Immunity for Winter: Lifestyle Tips and Essential Nutrients. Bastyr University. https://bastyr.edu/about/news/boost-your-immunity-winter-lifestyle-tips-and-essential-nutrients#:~:text=Regular%20exercise%20helps%20enhance%20immune,walking%2C%20jogging%2C%20or%20dancing.&text=Support%20your%20mucosal%20barriers%20by,potatoes%2C%20carrots%2C%20and%20spinach.&text=Boost%20your%20immune%20cells%20with,to%20a%20resilient%20immune%20system.&text=Ensure%20adequate%20levels%20of%20vitamin,there%20are%20limited%20food%20sources.

3.    (2023). Is the extreme cold bad for your lungs? Mayo Clinic Health System. https://www.mayoclinichealthsystem.org/hometown-health/speaking-of-health/is-the-extreme-cold-bad-for-your-lungs

4.    (2024). Cold Weather Exposure Linked to Increased Risk of Heart Attacks. American College of Cardiology. https://www.acc.org/About-ACC/Press-Releases/2024/09/02/10/31/Cold-Weather-Exposure

5.    (2025). Cold Weather-Related Health and Safety Tips (Hypothermia). Wisconsin Department of Health Services. https://www.dhs.wisconsin.gov/climate/cold.htm

6.    Basit, H. (2023). Frostbite. Stat Pearls. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK536914/

 

 

ATTACHMENT TWENTY – FROM USA TODAY

HOW OLD IS TOO OLD TO SHOVEL SNOW? HERE'S WHAT HEART EXPERTS SAY.

A 2001 study found that 85% of adults over the age of 50 already experience symptoms that can lead to coronary artery disease.

 By Greta Cross   Dec. 2, 2025   Updated Dec. 3, 2025, 8:57 a.m. ET

 

What age cutoff does Dr. Barry Franklin recommend for snow shoveling?

How many snow-shovel-related deaths occurred between 1990 and 2006?

Why is using a snow blower safer than shoveling?

 

Kickstarting December, several inches of snow have covered the United States this week; however, while some may be enjoying time off from school or work, others are busy cleaning driveways, sidewalks and porches.

As frigid winter nears, more people will gather up their snow shovels (or blowers) to take on the vigorous task. While shoveling snow may sound like a common household chore to some, it can be dangerous, and in some cases, fatal for those who do not exercise regularly and/or have pre-existing heart conditions.

"Shoveling a little snow off your sidewalk may not seem like hard work. However, the strain of heavy snow shoveling may be as or even more demanding on the heart than taking a treadmill stress test," Dr. Barry Franklin, a former American Heart Association volunteer, said in a news release.

Between 1990 and 2006, nearly 200,000 adults were treated in emergency rooms for snow-shovel-related accidents, with more than 1,600 deaths reported in that time frame, according to the American Journal of Emergency Medicine.

With winter on the horizon, here's what to know about keeping your body in shape while getting yard work done.

More winter weather: Snow storm flirts with bomb cyclone status

 

How old is too old to shovel snow?

Experts have not pinned down an exact age for when it's best to retire from snow shoveling, and recommendations they do have can vary widely.

Dr. John Osborne, AHA volunteer, said adults 65 and older should be "more wary" of snow shoveling and individuals with risk factors for heart disease, such as tobacco use, diabetes, obesity, hypertension or high cholesterol should be extra mindful.

Osborne pointed to a recently published study in Annals of Internal Medicine, which found that cold-related deaths are roughly double the rate of heat-related cardiovascular events (65% to 35%), especially in male patients above 65.

On the other hand, Franklin previously advised a younger age cut-off. He has said that anyone over age 45 should avoid the task. This recommendation is backed by a 2001 study, which found that about 85% of adults over the age of 50 already experience atherosclerosis, which can lead to coronary artery disease.

 

How much snow has fallen? Track winter storms barreling across the US

 

HOW DOES SNOW SHOVELING STRAIN THE HEART?

There are five main stressors on the heart when shoveling snow, Franklin said in an AHA news release:

·         Snow shoveling involves mostly isometric or static exertion that causes the contraction of muscles without any movement in the surrounding joints.

·         Shoveling snow requires arm work, which is more taxing on the heart than leg work.

·         Strained body while lifting heavy loads, during which most people unknowingly hold their breath, increases heart rate and blood pressure.

·         Legs not being in motion or frequent motion can lead to pooling of blood in the lower part of the body, which means it is not getting back to the heart for oxygenation.

·         Cold air can constrict blood vessels, disproportionately raising blood pressure and constricting coronary arteries.

 

WHAT ARE COMMON SYMPTOMS OF A CARDIAC EVENT?

Common symptoms of a cardiac event, like a heart attack, include chest pain or pressure, lightheadedness, heart palpitations and irregular heart rhythms, according to the AHA.

If you experience any of these symptoms while doing yard work this winter, stop. If the symptoms don't stop immediately, call 911.

 

HOW TO REDUCE INJURY WHILE SNOW SHOVELING

Perhaps the most obvious way to avoid injury during the winter is to have someone else do the yardwork for you. However, if that's not possible, Franklin advised the following, per an AHA news release:

·         Start gradually and pace yourself.

·         Cover your mouth and nose and wear layered clothing, including a hat and gloves.

·         Push or sweep the snow rather than lifting and throwing it.

·         Be careful when the wind is blowing. The wind makes the temperature feel colder than it is and increases the effects of the cold on your body.

Franklin also recommended using a snow blower instead of a shovel. Using a snow blower raises the heart rate to roughly 120 beats per minute, compared to a heart rate of about 170 while shoveling, he said.

 

HOW TO REDUCE INJURY WHILE SNOW BLOWING

Have access to a snow blower? The U.S. Consumer Product Safety Commission recommends the following safety tips for avoiding injury:

·         If debris or wet snow gets stuck in the machine, stop the machine completely before removing.

·         Keep hands and feet away from moving parts.

·         Don't leave the machine running in an enclosed area.

·         Add fuel to the tank outdoors before starting the machine. Don't add gasoline to a running or hot machine.

·         If using an electric snow blower, be mindful of the power cord's location.

Editor's note: This story was updated to correct a title.

Greta Cross is a national trending reporter at USA TODAY. Story idea? Email her at gcross@usatoday.com.

 

ATTACHMENT TWENTY ONE – FROM AI OVERVIEW on HOMELESS HYPOTHERMIA

 

Homeless hypothermia deaths are a significant, preventable tragedy where people without shelter freeze to death due to lack of adequate housing and resources, with hundreds dying annually in the U.S., especially older adults, exacerbated by substance use, mental health issues, and barriers to shelter access, leading to rising death tolls even in milder winter conditions. 

Causes & Contributing Factors

·         Lack of Shelter: Insufficient shelter beds, strict shelter rules (e.g., pets, belongings), and shelter closures leave many unsheltered.

·         Health Issues: Pre-existing conditions (cardiovascular, diabetes), malnutrition, mental illness, and substance misuse increase vulnerability to cold.

·         Substance Use: Alcohol and drug use impair judgment and the body's ability to regulate temperature, significantly increasing risk.

·         Systemic Barriers: Homelessness ordinances, encampment sweeps that confiscate bedding, and lack of outreach limit access to help.

·         Vulnerable Populations: Older adults (55+) are disproportionately affected, making up a large percentage of victims. 

Statistics & Trends

·         National Scale: Hundreds of people experiencing homelessness die from hypothermia each year in the U.S..

·         Increasing Rates: California saw a sharp rise, with 166 deaths in 2023, more than double 2015's numbers, notes KFF Health News.

·         Local Hotspots: Counties like Santa Clara, San Francisco, and Sacramento have seen significant increases in hypothermia deaths. 

Impact

·         Hypothermia occurs when the body's core temperature drops below 95°F (35°C).

·         Without treatment, it leads to organ failure, coma, and death, often silently as shivering stops. 

Solutions & Challenges

·         Need for More Shelters: Advocates call for more low-barrier, year-round shelters and warming centers.

·         Targeted Outreach: Teams try to connect unsheltered individuals with supplies, but barriers remain.

·         Policy Changes: Addressing systemic issues like sweeps and ensuring access to basic needs are crucial. 

For immediate help or to learn more, you can contact local homeless services or consult resources from organizations like the National Health Care for the Homeless Council or the National Coalition for the Homeless. 

 

 

ATTACHMENT TWENTY TWO – FROM NATIONAL COALITION FOR THE HOMELESS to Meet Demand!

 

In response to the deaths in Sacramento we are also urging that the decisions to open warming centers be made by elected officials and not unelected bureaucrats.

The state capital for the most populous state in the union, Sacramento, is struggling to serve low income people during the pandemic. Last week, they made the tragic decision to not open a warming center as a storm approached. On the evening of January 26 a thunderstorm hit the region with 70 mph winds and flooding that resulted in the death of at least five people living outside. 

The National Coalition for the Homeless is renewing our call to open warming centers based on need and not some arbitrary number like the expected temperature outside.  In response to the specific tragedy in Sacramento, we are urging that elected officials from around the country be forced to make the decision on when to open a warming center so that they have to face voters when their lack of action has deadly consequences. In Sacramento, NCH is asking that for the rest of the winter that the warming centers or a motel room be opened to anyone who requests a place inside in memory of those who lost their lives during this past storm. Karen Hunter was sleeping alone in a tent as the horrible wind struck Sacramento and lost her life because her government could not provide a safe place for her to ride out the storm.

As the storm approached on Tuesday January 26, three City Council members as well as the Mayor urged the County to open a warming center to get people inside, but City Manager, Howard Chan decided that the temperature was not going to below the 32 degree threshold mandated by the County according to an investigation by the Sacramento Bee’s Teresa Clift. The City of Sacramento has some byzantine rules about only opening the warming centers if the temperature gets to 32 degrees despite the heavy rain expected, and the fact that many people die of hypothermia because they are wet and cold.  Chan justified his action to the Sacramento Bee saying that his fear was the warming center would become a Covid hotspot and spread the disease throughout the community.  Other cities such as Cleveland have opened hotel rooms instead of gymnasiums to those who sleep outside to keep them safe from the elements as well as the coronavirus.

The public radio station quoted Mayor Darell Steinber as demanding the County open a safe place ahead of the storm.  Here is how Kris Hooks of CapRadio described the lack of urgency from the County when describing the Mayor,

“Darrell Steinberg expressed outrage over the slow-moving bureaucracy to move people out of the elements. ‘We can’t get a Goddamn warming center open for more than one night because the county has rules? I’m sick of it,’ Steinberg said.”

The Sacramento Bee also included the same quote in their investigation, “Night of Terror: Sacramento homeless lined up for shelter during the storm. The doors never opened.”

“It is real simple,” said Donald Whitehead Executive Director of National Coalition for the Homeless, “City governments must respond when a taxpayer asks for a warm place inside or if they cannot keep their citizens safe they have no reason to exist. The threat of hypothermia is typically a result of an individual not being able to keep themselves dry and their temperature drops.  We urge cities to respond when any individual asks for help by providing a safe, warm place for the everyone to sleep if they do not have night time shelter.  So for example, if a couple, lets call them Mary and Joseph, shows up at City Hall and asks for a place to stay out of the elements, cities have a moral obligation to open up their doors and not force Mary to sleep in a barn exposed to the elements especially during inclement weather.”

The Sacramento Bee article quoted Mark Jordan who was living next to the tent Karen Hunter died in saying, “I just thought my heart was going to stop. I was so cold.” Since unelected bureaucrats do not seem to have moral compass to understand the needs of the population they serve, NCH is asking that the life and death decisions of when to open “warming centers” be made by someone in the community who will have to face the public in an election if they make the wrong decision. We believe that Karen Hunter paid with her life because an unelected bureaucrat made a decision that the thousands of people in Sacramento living outside could survive a thunderstorm with only a thin layer of nylon for protection. 

The Sacramento Services Not Sweeps Coalition is hosting a vigil for those who lost their lives in the city last week on Friday, February 5 at 5 p.m., at Sacramento City Hall, and march to the County building to demand a more humane response to the housing crisis in the region. We urge activists in the region to show up (fully masked) and maintain 6 feet of social distancing to support the Services Not Sweeps Coalition demands for action. For more information on local efforts to protect the most vulnerable in Sacramento, visit the Sacramento Regional Coalition to End Homelessness website.

Here are some additional articles about the situation in Sacramento:

·         City Council Article: https://www.sacbee.com/article248802475.html

·         CBS Local TV story: https://sacramento.cbslocal.com/2021/01/27/two-homeless-death-steinberg/

·         Photos of damage: https://sacramento.cbslocal.com/2021/01/27/two-homeless-death-steinberg/

·         Not Opening the Warming Centers: https://sacbee.com/news/local/article248818310.html

·         Public Radio Story on the Deaths: https://www.capradio.org/articles/2021/01/27/unhoused-residents-died-as-a-storm-ravaged-sacramento-and-officials-debated-homelessness-solutions/

·         National Story on the Storm Damage: https://www.huffpost.com/entry/sacramento-homeless-rain-storm-shelter_n_601340efc5b6bde2f5bde2cd?ncid=NEWSSTAND0005

by Megan Hustings

In DC, we’re trying to squeeze the last days of warmth and sunshine out of the summer, and the last thing we want to think about is the temperature dropping more.  But winter is on its way.  Did you know that hypothermia, a life-threatening condition due to body temperature falling below 95 degrees, can occur when the outside temperature is as high as 50 degrees?  Wet clothes or socks can exacerbate already difficult weather conditions to make the risk of hypothermia greater.

The U.S. Conference of Mayors has reported for years that the number of requests for shelter beds far outweighs the actual number of emergency shelter beds available, and this is especially the case during periods of cold weather when it is just not healthy to remain outdoors.

Cities around the country are finalizing plans to provide warming centers and additional beds in emergency shelters when temperatures drop this winter.

It is never too late, or too early, to plan how your community can help those who do not have a warm place to call home this winter.  From out report on Winter Services , here are 5 things to be sure to include while you are planning for this winter.

5 Tips for Winter Services Planning:

6.    Increased Outreach – Talk to people who stay on the street to help you locate camps and common sleeping areas.

7.    Stock up on Blankets and Warm Clothing – Wet clothing will not keep anyone warm and can lead to greater risk of illness.

8.    Emergency Transportation – Does your city have vans or shuttles available to transport people to shelters that may be across town?

9.    Day Centers – Make sure there is somewhere people can go, at least when the temperature falls below 40 degrees F.

10.     Low Barrier Nighttime Shelter – Any past bans or other restrictions should be waived on nights when the temperature is lower than 40 degrees F.  If needed, people who are violent or under the influence can be separated, so long as they can remain warm.

In January, NCH released a report on Winter Services that detailed extended shelter hours and other services that work to decrease the risk of hypothermia deaths among people who are homeless. Hypothermia refers to the life-threatening conditions that can occur when a person’s core temperature drops below 95 degrees Fahrenheit.

HypERthermia is just the opposite referring to a myriad of conditions that can occur as a result of a person absorbing or producing more heat that the body can dissipate. Just as with hypothermia, people most at risk of hyperthermia are the young and elderly, those who have persistent medical conditions, and those exposed to extreme environmental conditions.

NCH’s Winter Services report found that 700 people experiencing or at-risk of homelessness are killed from hypothermia annually in the United States. A similar report from the Center for Disease Control (CDC) that looked at data from 1999 to 2003 found that on average 688 deaths each year were due to hyperthermia. While the CDC report does not mention the housing status of those who passed away due to heat-related illnesses, we can relate the risks to people who are homeless (my comments in italics) to the CDC’s recommendations for preventing hyperthermia:

Suggestion #1: Drink more fluids, regardless of your activity level.

Many people who are homeless do not have ready access to water. Restaurants will charge, soup kitchens may only be open at certain times during the day, there are fewer and fewer publicly accessible water fountains, can you imagine not having a refrigerator full of cold water or even a sink for tap water?

Suggestion #2: Don’t drink liquids that contain alcohol or large amounts of sugar.

Sodas can be cheaper than bottled water! People who are suffering from alcohol dependence are at particular risk for temperature-related illness.

Suggestion #3: Stay indoors and, if at all possible, stay in an air-conditioned place. If your home does not have air conditioning, go to the shopping mall or public library.

There are few day centers available for people experiencing homelessness, and often, people who “look” homeless (have lots of bags or who have not been able to shower or do laundry) are turned away from establishments like libraries and restaurants.

Suggestion #4: Electric fans may provide comfort, but when the temperature is in the high 90s, taking a cool shower or bath, or moving to an air-conditioned place is a much better way to cool off.

Electric fans (anything other than a small battery-operating or hand fan), taking a shower or air-conditioning are simply not options when you have no home.

Suggestion #5: Wear lightweight, light-colored, loose-fitting clothing.

Type of clothing is often not an option when you cannot pay for appropriate pieces or do not have somewhere secure to store clothing.

Some communities have stepped up efforts to prevent the risk of hyperthermia among people experiencing homelessness: the Arizona Department of Health Services published a guide on where to find cooling centers; a Columbia, South Carolina shelter has extended weekend hours to provide a cool refuge during the hot summer months; and DC opens cooling centers and emergency shower locations (though I’ve only heard from a couple of people who know about these).

But it seems that the level of response to heat emergencies is not matched even to the number of cold-weather emergency services available to people who are experiencing homelessness. Are we wrong about this? Does your community (homeless services or health departments) have cooling centers or make other extra efforts to ensure the homeless population has refuge from the summer heat? Let us know!

Other resources:
Change.org Post May 30, 2010 – How to Help the Homeless Beat the Heat
Health Care for the Homeless Council Hyperthermia factsheet

 

ATTACHMENT TWENTY THREE – FROM AI OVERVIEW

IN DECEMBER 2025, THERE HAVE BEEN SEVERAL REPORTED HYPOTHERMIA AND COLD-RELATED DEATHS AMONG PEOPLE EXPERIENCING HOMELESSNESS ACROSS THE UNITED STATES AS WINTER WEATHER SETS IN

 

Reported deaths and incidents for December 2025 include:

·         Albany, New York: A 21-year-old homeless man, Dajohn Woodberry Jr., was found deceased outside the Albany International Airport's north parking garage; an autopsy determined he died of hypothermia. This incident has prompted local advocates to plan a "winter offensive" to demand more action from officials.

·         Toledo, Ohio: At least one unhoused person has died due to winter weather, and advocates warn that more deaths are probable without immediate action. The individual was a 61-year-old man found covered in snow.

·         Worth, Illinois (Cook County): A 68-year-old woman found near a public library was identified as Cook County's first cold weather-related death of the season.

·         Baltimore, Maryland: Local shelters have opened as warming centers, with the city's plan highlighting the risks of cold-related injury.

·         Ohio Valley & Western Massachusetts: Freezing temperatures across these regions have prompted health officials and local groups to issue warnings and open warming centers to protect vulnerable populations. 

Advocates continue to stress that while warming centers are essential, more permanent housing solutions and resources are needed to prevent these deaths annually. The National Coalition for the Homeless emphasizes that a combination of bad weather and inadequate public policy creates a dangerous situation for the unhoused population. 

 

ATTACHMENT TWENTY FOUR – FROM CNN

TRUMP ADMIN IS ‘TRYING TO PUT OUT A FIRE THEY STARTED’ AT WEATHER SERVICE AS A COLD, SNOWY WINTER LOOMS

By Andrew Freedman 12/9

 

The National Weather Service is working to hire back hundreds of positions laid off or otherwise cut by the Trump administration, but it’s progressing at a snail’s pace, with about 80 final job offers accepted for meteorologists, hydrologists and other specialized staff.

The agency received permission in late July to add a total of 450 people after about 550 were cut by DOGE earlier this year. The decision to authorize new hires came after lawmakers and citizens expressed concerns about how the NWS cuts would impact public safety.

The slow hiring means the Weather Service is going into yet another critical storm season with more than a dozen forecast offices forced to get by with serious staff vacancies, potentially undermining the accuracy of forecasts and warnings during powerful winter storms.

 

Similar concerns were raised ahead of hurricane season. Hurricanes, including three Category 5 storms, luckily stayed away from making landfall in the U.S.

“The administration is trying to put out a fire that they started,” said Rick Spinrad, who led NOAA during the Biden administration. “The 450 hires for the NWS won’t even cover the full shortfall.”

“Also, let’s not lose sight of the fact that even if NWS could hire 450 people tomorrow,” he said, “there is little chance that they would have the centuries of experience held by their predecessors.”

It takes 13 meteorologists to fully staff a weather forecast office on a 24/7 basis, though many NWS facilities are doing so with just 10 or 11 at the present time, said Tom Fahy, the legislative director for the NWS Employees Organization, the union that represents agency staff. For example, the weather forecast office in Goodland, Kansas is short eight meteorologists, according to statistics Fahy compiled.

He said that the NWS offices in Rapid City, N.D. and Cheyenne, WY are also short 7 or 8 meteorologists, and that, where new people have been hired, those individuals are not all in place. It takes time to move personnel and match peoples’ skillsets with specific gaps in expertise around the country.

Winter storms can be deadly, and short staffing at the NWS has the potential to erode forecast accuracy and delay warnings, experts said.

“I worry that timing, accuracy, and delivery of forecasts, watches, and warnings will degrade to the point of risking lives and property,” Spinrad said. “I envision one or more severe winter storms for which emergency managers, departments of transportation, and hospitals will be less prepared and forewarned than they have been historically,” he said.

“This is not a ‘ding’ on the quality and professionalism of the workforce at NWS, but we just don’t have enough of those heroic public employees to get the job done.”

There is still one forecast office, located in Hanford, Calif., that is too short on staffing to operate 24/7, according to a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) official who requested anonymity for fear of retribution. The NWS is part of NOAA within the Commerce Department.

Additional NWS offices don’t have enough staff to launch weather balloons at the standard rate of twice a day, instead going down to one daily balloon launch or missing them altogether. Right now, there are nine NWS offices that are launching balloons at a cadence of once per day, the NOAA official said.

This can have a significant impact on forecasting, since readings on air temperature, humidity, air pressure and winds from these balloons are fed directly into the computer models that forecasters use as guidance for issuing their predictions. Missing weather data on upper air conditions, from the surface to about 40,000 feet, can make those models less reliable.

According to the NOAA official, the Weather Service has been pushing to speed up hiring and has seen a surge of applications for each advertised position. The NWS continued to process candidates during the 43-day government shutdown, they said, given the high priority placed on boosting staffing in order to ensure the agency fulfills its mission of protecting lives and property.

The NOAA official said the agency has announced more than 180 positions so far and will keep hiring next year until the 450 positions are filled. At that point, however, the NWS will still be smaller than it was at the start of the second Trump administration.

NOAA spokesperson Kim Doster told CNN that the NWS is “Properly staffed to meet our mission of predicting weather hazards and providing essential services at all levels to keep communities informed, and we remain fully ready for the winter season ahead.”

“Following the voluntary reassignments of 45 employees to vacant NWS field jobs last summer, the NWS continues to broaden the pool of talent on the front lines of the agency by hiring mission-critical positions where increases in staffing levels have been deemed beneficial,” Doster said.

She said the agency is on track to hire the remaining staff by the end of the 2026 fiscal year.

 

 

 

ATTACHMENT TWENTY FIVE – FROM CBS

WINTER WEATHER ALERTS TO IMPACT 18 MILLION PEOPLE ACROSS WEST AND MIDWEST

December 6, 2025 / 4:45 PM EST / CBS News

 

More than 18 million people are under winter weather alerts across the West and Midwest as storms are forecast to bring heavy snows and bitter winds. 

A strong system is producing heavy snow across the Northern Rockies, where higher peaks may pick up a foot or more through Saturday, according to CBS Meteorologist Andrew Kozak. As the low moves east, snowfall expands into the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest from South Dakota to northwest Illinois, with 4 to 6 inches likely and locally higher totals. 

A winter weather advisory is in place for Chicago with up to 2 to 5 inches of snow expected, CBS Chicago reported, leading to slick roadways and sidewalks by the morning hours. 

Bitter cold will follow, with subzero lows possible in the Dakotas and Minnesota by Sunday night into Monday. Another snow system is expected to move through the metro and southern part of the state starting Saturday afternoon, CBS Minnesota reported, with bitter temperatures expected. 

The National Weather Service predicted moderate to heavy snow over parts of the Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley on Saturday night.

Eighteen million people are under winter weather alerts Saturday.

Winter storm warnings and winter storm advisories are in effect for Colorado, Colorado CBS reported, with the mountains set to be hammered by snow. 

The Pacific Northwest is set to be pummeled by a series of Pacific systems arriving late Sunday into Monday, bringing widespread heavy rain to western Washington and Oregon, Kozak said. 

Flash flooding is likely as saturated ground quickly converts new rainfall to runoff and flood watches are already in place. The heavy rain threat continues over the next 5-10 days.

 

ATTACHMENT TWENTY SIX – FROM NBC

WINTER WEATHER PUMMELS THE NATION, BRINGING ARCTIC TEMPERATURES, SNOW AND RAIN

Wintry conditions sweep across the U.S., producing below-average temperatures, winter weather watches and flood watches.

By Kate Reilly and Kathryn Prociv  Dec. 8, 2025, 10:26 AM EST

 

BRUTAL COLD AND SNOW CONTINUE FOR MILLIONS ACROSS THE U.S.

Cold temperatures and winter storm systems continue to sweep across the United States.

A blast of Arctic air will bring temperatures 10 to 20 degrees Fahrenheit below average to all regions east of the Mississippi River. On Monday, the coldest areas will be the northern Plains, the Upper Midwest and the Great Lakes.

By Tuesday morning, isolated record lows are possible in the Northeast, but this air mass is not as cold as the one that produced several record lows last week.

Cold temperatures will persist through Tuesday and are expected to warm up midweek, before another surge of cold air moves in by Friday.

In addition to the bitterly cold conditions hitting the eastern stretch of the country, several fast-moving winter storms will impact the Midwest, the Great Lakes, the mid-Atlantic and New England throughout the week.

A quick-moving storm will move through this region Monday, producing 2 to 4 inches of snowfall from Beckley, West Virginia, to Richmond, Virginia. Local amounts of 4 to 5 inches are possible across central Virginia, including the Roanoke area.

Washington, D.C., is expected to see light flurries from this storm system, which will clear by Monday evening.

Another storm is forecast to hit North Dakota on Tuesday morning.

It will move across the Upper Midwest and the Great Lakes before bringing snow to the interior Northeast and New England on Wednesday.

As much as 4 to 6 inches of snowfall is expected in Duluth, Green Bay and western Michigan. Up to 2 inches will hit Minneapolis, Madison, Milwaukee and Detroit.

Minneapolis is forecast to be right on the line separating light snow from heavier snow, so any shift in the forecast could bring higher totals into that metro area Tuesday.

 

ATMOSPHERIC RIVER STORM IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST

At least 9 million people are under flood watches across parts of western Washington and northwestern Oregon. Heavy rain will hit this region Monday morning.

The atmospheric river will continue to fuel torrential rain through Wednesday.

About 6 to 10 inches of rainfall is expected in the Olympics and Cascades, with up to 12 inches possible in local parts of the southern Cascades.

Portland can expect 3 to 5 inches of rain, and Seattle could see 1 to 2 inches.

 

 

ATTACHMENT TWENTY SEVEN – FROM NEWSWEEK 

WINTER STORM WARNING AS 14 INCHES OF SNOW TO STRIKE: ‘HAZARDOUS’

By Amanda Greenwood  Dec 08, 2025 at 04:42 AM EST

 

Winter storm warnings have been issued to thousands of residents across multiple states in the U.S. as up to 14 inches of snow are expected to hit from Monday, December 8, until Wednesday, December 10, making conditions "hazardous," according to the National Weather Service (NWS).

 

WHAT TO KNOW

Wyoming/Montana, Virginia, Alaska, Michigan, Tennessee, Kentucky, Washington, North Carolina, and Illinois are all expected to be the worst-affected areas, prompting the NWS to warn residents to “plan on slippery road conditions,” especially during morning and evening commutes: 

Wyoming/Montana

Those in Teton, Snake River, and the Gros Ventre Mountains should prepare for between 6 and 14 inches of snow to fall until Monday morning, making travel especially difficult over the Teton Pass.

The Absaroka and Beartooth Mountains that border Wyoming and Montana could get up to 2 feet of snow and 70 mph winds until Wednesday afternoon. 

Virginia 

Parts of central, east central, southeastern (including New Kent, Surrey, York, James City, and Isle of Wight counties and the city of Newport News), south central (including Sussex county), and southern (including Southampton, Greensville counties) Virginia could get between 2 and 5 inches of snow, with more expected on higher ground, throughout Monday.

Alaska

The City of Hyder is expected to get up to 7 inches of snow, with visibility reduced to a mile or less, making travel “very difficult,” overnight Sunday—where up to 1 inch of snow could fall per hour—until Monday evening. Hoonah and Tenakee Springs could get up to 5 inches by midnight on Sunday, with the heaviest snow rates expected to be around Tenakee Springs.

Petersburg and Wrangell Boroughs could see up to 6 inches of snow by Monday night, and the NWS has said that “snow amounts during this period have a 30 percent chance to meet or exceed warning criteria.”

Western Kupreanof Island and Kuiu Island might get between 3 and 5 inches of snow, Prince of Wales Island up to 5 inches, Pelican and Elfin Cove up to 4 inches, and Kodiak Island (northeast) up to 5 inches, along with 45 mph winds, by Monday.

Michigan

Up to 8 inches of lake effect snow—which is localized snowfall—is expected to fall from Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning, particularly affecting the Mackinac and Chippewa county borders.

Tennessee 

The Blount, Cocke, and Sevier Smoky Mountains, and southeast Greene, Johnson, southeast Carter, and Unicoi counties could get up to 3 inches of snow, especially in the mountains, until Monday night.

Kentucky

Martin, Floyd, Letcher, and Pike counties could get up to 3 inches of snow in areas above 2,000 feet, 1 to 2 inches along the ridges, and up to 1 inch in the valleys, by late Monday afternoon. Parts of east central, northeast, and southeast Kentucky could also get up to 1 inch throughout Monday. 

Washington 

Coastal Washington and central Washington counties could get between 3 and 5 inches of snow by Monday morning.

North Carolina 

Avery, Mitchell, and Yancey counties could see up to 3 inches of snow, with 4 inches expected across the highest peaks, from Monday through to Tuesday morning. 

Illinois

Lake and northern Cook counties could get between 3 and 4 inches of snow, and southern Cook county could get up to 5 inches from Monday until Tuesday morning, with the heaviest amounts set to fall overnight Monday.

What People Are Saying 

The NWS for Virginia issued the following warning to travelers: “Persons should delay all travel if possible. If travel is absolutely necessary, drive with extreme caution and be prepared for sudden changes in visibility. Leave plenty of room between you and the motorist ahead of you, and allow extra time to reach your destination. Avoid sudden braking or acceleration, and be especially cautious on hills or when making turns. Make sure your car is winterized and in good working order.”

The NWS for North Carolina said: “The heavy snow will create snow covered roads and produce isolated power outages. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday morning and evening commutes.”

 

 

ATTACHMENT TWENTY EIGHT – FROM SERVICE MASTER

HOME PROTECTION & REPAIR DURING ARCTIC BLAST, POLAR VORTEX & OTHER COLD-WEATHER EVENTS

Author: Bridgette Smith

 

Table of Contents

·         What Is the Polar Vortex?

·         What Causes the Polar Vortex?

·         How Long Does A Polar Vortex Last?

·         How Can The Polar Vortex Damage My Business?

·         How to Prepare Your Business for Artic Blasts and Winter Weather

If you live in the U.S., you have likely been affected by a deep freeze, a snowstorm, or other winter weather-related events.

Understanding the differences between these events, how they can impact your business, and how you can best prepare depending on your region is essential.

Let’s start with some basic questions/definitions.

What Is the Polar Vortex?

The Polar Vortex is a large area of low-pressure and cold air surrounding Earth’s poles.

It strengthens in the winter, causing the area to expand as far as the Midwest and Plains states. This sends blasts of frigid air into the Midwest and the Plains states, causing frozen pipes and severe winter weather conditions. The Polar Vortex is a regular occurrence in the United States.

The term ‘vortex’ refers to the counterclockwise flow of air that helps keep the colder air near the Poles. It’s worth noting that polar vortexes happen around every other year and are not new.

Many times, during winter in the northern hemisphere, the polar vortex will expand, sending cold air southward. This occurs fairly regularly during wintertime and is often associated with large outbreaks of Arctic air in the United States.

The only danger to humans is the magnitude of the cold temperatures that will occur when the polar vortex expands, sending Arctic air southward into areas that are not typically that cold.

What Causes the Polar Vortex?

A polar vortex expansion happens when a weather event disrupts the low-pressure system.

The jet stream of wind that typically keeps cold air north does not have enough force to maintain the same pants current path, so high-pressure systems hold air south.

The lobes that are formed because of this movement then stretch and move south, causing Arctic air to spill and cause lower temperatures in the areas affected.

How Long Does A Polar Vortex Last?

This varies depending on a range of factors, with abnormally cold temperatures potentially lasting anywhere from a week to more than a month.

For example, in February 2021 the polar vortex event by Winter Storm Uri lasted ten days for most, but the impact was felt for several weeks in areas, such as Oklahoma and Texas. These lasting impacts on the winter weather patterns can continue to affect weather for several weeks.

How Can The Polar Vortex Damage My Business?

These damaging winds caused by the Arctic weather are strong enough to cause severe damage to your business.

Below are just a couple of the ways the polar vortex can damage your business:

Roof Damage

Your roof may suffer winter weather damage due to the strong, cold winds. Roof damage provides an easy entrance for snow or water to enter and cause water damage to your business.

While the immediate damages of cold weather are worth noting, long-term damages could also occur. Snow or ice forming on your roof could lead to ice dams, which can damage your roof and cause water leaks in your facility.

Water damage that goes unaddressed on your roofs or walls could lead to mold, which may require mold removal to be addressed.

Frozen Pipes

Your water pipes may also freeze, leading to bursts and extensive water damage that may affect your property. Burst pipes were among the leading causes of damage caused by Winter Storm Uri in February 2021, with thousands of Texas homes and businesses having extensive water damage.

Frozen pipes are a concern for commercial buildings when temperatures are low enough. They are one of the leading causes of winter property damage. Taking preventative measures can save time and money.

Extreme cold weather has plagued the country the past few years, including devastating cold temperatures from the Polar Vortex, and meteorologists predict it will continue. In short, there is no cause to be alarmed when you hear about the polar vortex, but you should be prepared to protect your business during colder temperatures.

How to Prepare Your Business for Artic Blasts and Winter Weather

Follow these tips to ensure your business is prepared for any hazardous winter weather:

Insulate Your Pipes

Insulate pipes that are located in exterior walls or unheated areas, such as a basement. Open cabinet doors to allow warm air to circulate pipes and let water drip from faucets served by exposed pipes.

Know Where Your Main Water Shut-off Valve is Located

If the unfortunate thing happens and you have a pipe burst, you’ll want to shut the water source off immediately.

Have a Backup Generator

Losing power is never convenient, but it could be catastrophic during frigid temperatures. Ensure you have a reliable backup generator to provide continuous power to your building if there’s an outage.

Heat Your Building

The Insurance Institute for Business & Home Safety recommends heating buildings to at least 55°F - even unoccupied.

The cost of a burst pipe or other cold-related damage far outweighs the expense of keeping the temperature above freezing. Consider it an investment in preventing a much more significant loss.

Manage Snow & Ice

Also, manage snow and ice on your business property. Keep your parking lots plowed and sidewalks shoveled and salted. Put mats inside and outside your doors to minimize the amount of snow that’s tracked in.

Implement Business Continuity Plans

Extreme winter weather can wreak havoc on your property and your employees. Creating a business continuity plan can help you combat the impacts and get your business back up and running fast. Learn more here about why you need a Pre-Loss Agreement.

24/7 Winter Emergency Response: We're Here When You Need Us

Winter storms can wreak havoc on your business. Frozen pipes can burst, flooding your office and causing thousands in damage. A collapsed roof can shut down your operations for weeks. Don't wait until disaster strikes.

Recommended Further Reading

·         Winter Tips for Businesses

·         Business Continuity Plans

·          

ATTACHMENT TWENTY NINE – FROM USA TODAY

SNOW ON CHRISTMAS? WHAT TO KNOW ABOUT THE WHITE CHRISTMAS FORECAST.

With predictions of a cold December likely the odds may be better than the historical average in many areas.

By Doyle Rice   Updated Dec. 9, 2025, 10:06 a.m. ET

 

Christmas is still over two weeks away, so meteorologists can't yet predict for certain where folks will see snow on the big day. However, with predictions of a cold month of December likely, including a potential Arctic blast coming up, the odds may be better than the historical average in many areas.

For now, the best we can go on is where snow has been reported on past Christmas Days.

If you're yearning for a snowy holiday, there are many regions of the United States where weather history suggests you'll want to be if you're looking for the best chance of seeing a white Christmas.

Here's what you need to know

It need not snow Dec. 25 to fit the weather service's definition of a white Christmas: There just needs to be at least 1 inch of snow on the ground. A trace amount of snow does not count. However, any snow that falls during the day certainly adds to the Yuletide mood.

On average, about 38% of the contiguous 48 states has an inch of snow on the ground on Christmas Day, according to 21 years of data compiled by NOAA.

Since 2003, those percentages have varied widely from year to year, from only 17.6% in 2023 to a whopping 63% of the contiguous U.S. in 2009, according to Weather.com.

Blame Bing?

The USA's fascination with a white Christmas dates to 1942, when Bing Crosby first crooned the wistful song in the film "Holiday Inn." Written by Irving Berlin, the song's lyrics bring out a romanticized image of Christmases past, "just like the ones I used to know." A second movie – White Christmas, also with Crosby – came out in 1954.

Where is a white Christmas most likely?

Alaska. Minnesota. Maine. Upstate New York. The Allegheny Mountains of Pennsylvania and West Virginia. Practically anywhere in Idaho. And of course, the Rockies or the Sierra Nevada Mountains. These are the parts of the United States where weather history suggests you want to be if you're looking for the best chance of a white Christmas, NOAA says.

Looking for a near-surefire city to visit to see a white Christmas? Head to Fairbanks, Alaska, which has seen snow on the ground practically every Christmas since weather record keeping began, according to data from NOAA.

As of early December, Fairbanks was already reporting a snow depth of 11 inches.

Some of the other big cities with the best probability for a white Christmas, based on historical averages, include Minneapolis, Green Bay, Buffalo, and Burlington, Vermont, according to AccuWeather.

All of those cities were reporting snow-covered ground as of Dec. 8, so that's a good sign as we approach the holiday.

Historically, much of northern Minnesota and Wisconsin, most of Michigan's Upper Peninsula and a large portion of the Western mountain areas have a 90% or better chance of a white Christmas.

 

 

 

ATTACHMENT THIRTY – FROM USA TODAY

WILL IT BE A WHITE CHRISTMAS? ADJUST YOUR EXPECTATIONS.

The 2025 forecast won't arrive until mid-December, but history holds a clue about what parts of the U.S. are most likely to see snow on Christmas.

 Jeanine Santucci   Dec. 3, 2025, 12:45 p.m. ET

 

Why do major U.S. cities have low white Christmas odds?

Which U.S. cities have the highest historical white Christmas chances?

Why do major U.S. cities have low white Christmas odds?

Which regions have 0% white Christmas probability?

 

Christmas is fast approaching, and many parts of the United States have seen a glimpse (or a lot more) of snow already this winter season. But what are the chances of having a white Christmas in 2025?

It's too early for meteorologists to say with much certainty where there will be enough snow to count as a white Christmas. (A white Christmas is at least 1 inch of snow is on the ground, whether or not it actually snows on Christmas Day, according to forecasters.)

On Dec. 3, about 40% of the country was covered by snow, after recent snowstorms in parts of the Midwest, New England and Mid-Atlantic. More rounds of snow and arctic air are expected in the coming days and weeks, forecasters said.

Though the available data gives us a good idea of the chances of a white Christmas, NOAA says "the actual conditions in any year may vary widely from these because the weather patterns present will determine the snow on the ground or snowfall on Christmas day." Check back with USA TODAY's coverage and your local weather service office closer to Dec. 25 for a surer forecast.

Still, historical weather data can give us an idea of the odds for different parts of the country.

States with the best historical chance of a white Christmas

In any given year, your best bet for a white Christmas is in Minnesota, Maine, upstate New York, Idaho or some of the snowiest mountain ranges in the country, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which produced a map of the probabilities for a white Christmas based on climate data from 1991 to 2020.

Cities with the best historical chance of a white Christmas

None of the most-populated 25 cities in the United States have a very good chance (higher than one-in-three) of a white Christmas, according to AccuWeather's analysis of the historical data. Among the biggest cities, Denver is the most likely, with a 34% chance, followed by Chicago with about a 33.5% chance, AccuWeather reported.

Indianapolis, Boston and Columbus rounded out the top five major U.S. cities for best chances of a snowy Christmas setting.

Aside from major cities, mountain towns in the Rockies and New England have the best chances at a white Christmas, AccuWeather reported. Tahoe City, California, has an 83.4% chance. Ski towns in Colorado have chances from 94 to 99%.

States with the worst chances for a white Christmas

The least likely spots for a snowy Christmas scene? The West Coast, Deep South and Gulf Coast.

The worst chances for snow include much of the southeastern part of the country and the West Coast, according to the NOAA data. It might go without saying, but there is a 0% probability of a white Christmas in Miami, Houston and Los Angeles based on the data.

Why the obsession with white Christmas? Blame Dickens and the Little Ice Age

 

ATTACHMENT THIRTY ONE – FROM USA TODAY

WHY ARE AMERICANS OBSESSED WITH A WHITE CHRISTMAS? BLAME DICKENS AND THE LITTLE ICE AGE.

By Elizabeth Weise  Dec. 15, 2024 Updated Dec. 16, 2024, 12:40 p.m. ET

 

Americans are obsessed with a white Christmas and all the trimmings – snow, icicles, sleigh rides, frost on windowpanes, cuddling up by the fire, mittens, the North Pole. Christmas is a cacophony of cold imagery and warm hearts.

And yet the majority of Americans live where it never snows at Christmas.

Only about 40% of the 48 contiguous states are typically snow-covered by Christmas, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

So even though a white Christmas will never be most people's reality, why does it remain the ideal?

Well, experts say, in the United States it's about a swirling blizzard of nostalgia, music, popular literature, the rise of Victorian mass culture ‒ and, surprisingly, the Little Ice Age.

It all starts with Dickens. As in Charles Dickens, the English novelist and author of the enormously popular "A Christmas Carol," first published in 1843.

"It cemented his role as one of the most significant literary creators of Christmas," said Thomas Ruys Smith, a professor and literary historian of Christmas at the University of East Anglia in the United Kingdom.

The novel was also a hit in the United States and quickly adapted for the stage, where it immediately gained a following. It was further embedded in the American Christmas consciousness in 1867 when Dickens gave a reading tour of the U.S. around Christmas time. "America falls heavily back in love with "A Christmas Carol," Smith said.

The novel depicts a London Christmas blanketed in snow, cold and ice skating. And yet even by then London was less and less likely to get snow.

"What Dickens is doing in "A Christmas Carol" is what we all do – going back to our childhood when Christmas is the most magical," Smith said.

 

Dickens grew up in the 1810s and 1820s in England, when the Little Ice Age still had a grip on Europe. The Little Ice Age, which lasted from about 1300 to 1850, was a global period of widespread cooler temperatures, possibly the result of solar changes and volcanic activity.

"Periods of extremely cold temperatures were much more common in the region during the middle of the 19th century, when the Little Ice Age was finally beginning to end," said Dagomar Degroot, a professor of environmental history at Georgetown University who has written about the Little Ice Age.

The link between snow and Christmas remains so strong in England that during December, Covent Garden in London offers an hourly flurry of artificially produced "real" snow.

Another literary link to Christmas that continues to reverberate down the ages is "Little Women," first published in 1868 and which famously begins on a snowy day just before Christmas.

"Again and again we're given literary and visual cues of what Christmas should look like. The texts we still hold on to from the 19th century all have snow and ice skating," Smith said.

That connection between Christmas and snow and cold was accentuated by the rise of mass commercial culture across the United States after the Civil War. It was the beginning of major popular illustrated magazines – most of them produced in the Northeast – which at Christmas published stories that were the Victorian equivalent of Hallmark movies.

"Mary Wilkins Freeman was the most important American writer of Christmas stories," Smith said. "They're almost entirely snowy in their esthetic."

The period also had a mania for inexpensive prints, many of which features snow-drenched, old-timey (for the time) Christmas scenes, Smith said.

Think Currier and Ives prints, which actually feature in the 1948 Christmas song "Sleigh Ride" with the line "It will nearly be like a picture-print by Currier and Ives."

All of this was happening in a period of colder temperatures, Degroot said.

"There's no doubt that the United States was, on average, much colder in the Victorian era than it is today. Average winter temperatures in particular have climbed more quickly than temperatures in other seasons, especially in the Northeast, where the American Christmas ideal emerged and evolved in the 19th century," he said.

 

WHY MUST CHRISTMASES BE WHITE?

Christmas is strongly linked to childhood memories, which brings us to one of the most famous Christmas songs ever – one that actually started out with palm trees.

Irving Berlin's iconic "White Christmas" was first released in 1942, but he wrote it in 1938 when he was in Beverly Hills, said Nate Sloan, a professor of musicology at the University of Southern California.

"He writes about this yearning for home, for a white Christmas, which was really dreaming about his family's roots in New York in the 1890s," he said.

The song's original first verse, later cut, was specific. "The sun is shining, the grass is green. The orange and palm trees sway. There's never been such a day. In Beverly Hills, L.A. But it's December the 24th. And I'm longing to be up north."

"This idea of dreaming about a white Christmas is about longing and yearning. And that white snow represents his youth and childhood, a sort of rose-colored past," Sloan said.

NOW CHRISTMAS IS JUST ABOUT COLD WEATHER

Though Christmas carols go back as far as the 1300s, most of the religious carols we sing today date only as far back as the 1700s and after. The rise of the specifically Christmas but non-religious song took root in the 20th century and went into overdrive beginning in the 1990s with the commercialization of Christmas soundtracks, Sloan said.

And increasingly, the songs on those soundtracks aren't about Christmas at all – they're simply about cold. The Christmas canon is full of such songs with nary a mention of Yuletide.

·         "Let it Snow"

·         "Baby, It's Cold Outside"

·         "Frosty the Snowman"

·         "Jingle Bells"

·         "I've Got my Love to Keep Me Warm"

·         "Winter Wonderland"

·         "Sleigh Ride"

"It's almost like if you just talk about snow in your song, people will associate it with Christmas," Sloan said.

Even as Christmas songs get snowier, frozen precipitation is likely to be less and less common over time, Degroot said.

Earth’s global temperature experiences natural variation over time. This is clear over the past 2,000 years, which includes the Medieval Warm Period, when grapes grew in Britain, and the Little Ice Age, when the Thames river froze so hard that "frost fairs" were held on it.

But the warming over the past 50 years stands in stark contrast to the natural variation that has occurred naturally over the past 2,000 years, temperature data reveals.

"Trends in greenhouse gas emissions trends are likely to lead to average global warming of around 3 degrees Celsius (5.4 degrees Fahrenheit) by the end of this century," he said.

In such a world, snowfall will be meaningfully less abundant than it is now.

"If Earth's climate system ends up being highly sensitive to greenhouse gas emissions, which is plausible, then a rapid and destructive rise in global temperatures will indeed make it impossible for many Americans to experience a white Christmas," Degroot said. "Of course, that will be the least of our problems."

Elizabeth Weise covers climate change, the energy transition and the environment for USA TODAY. Reach her at eweise@usatoday.com