THE DON JONES INDEX…

GAINS POSTED in GREEN

LOSSES POSTED in RED

     3/5/14…  15,121.73

   2/26/14…  15,160.85

   6/27/13…  15,000.00

 

(THE DOW JONES INDEX:   3/5… 16,359.57; 2/26… 16,203.87; 11/19/12… 12,592.22)

   

LESSON for MARCH 5, 2014

 

Hard to remember, nowadays, but back around 1940 or so, some bright-eyed squirrels in Congress got this idea that we could economize our way out of the Depression by ending the draft, laying off a few hundred thousand soldiers, sailors, pilots, defense workers and the such and… oh yeah… by postponing the modernization of our armed forces for another ten years.  Or twenty.

Intelligent and honorable people still dispute whether, on December 7th of ’41 (and after the Congress, by one vote) decided that we’d keep our military solvent, just in case) President Roosevelt and his team of Pentagon advisers chose to lose intelligence that Japanese warplanes were on their way to Pearl Harbor.  The reason… one applicable now, as then… is that Americans were so tired of European wars and the culture that kept producing little Napoleons and Attilas, Genghiz Khans and Hitlers, that it was high time to retreat back into isolation (if not normalcy), let the Continentals and Asians duke it out among themselves and the chips fall where they may.  Only a direct attack on American soil would shake Don Jones out of his lethargy… and that’s what Pearl Harbor did.

Well, just this week, the grandsons and daughters of those Don Joneses got a brief but pungent lesson in déjà vu all over again when Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel floated a trial bubble to slice America’s military down to pre-World War II levels so as to preserve and expand the benefits paid out to the needy (and the greedy) and allow some wriggle room to enact Republican tax cuts for the rich without sending our deficit (as expressed by Debtclock, below) into hyperdrive.

Lo and behold, up popped another of those vain, strutting little men who have plagued civilization for thousands of years with their psychopathic dreams of conquering the world.  To Vladimir Putin, the Crimea is Russia’s Sudentenland, Ukraine is its Austria and Poland, the Netherlands, Belgium and France are… well… Poland, the Netherlands, Belgium and France.  On Monday night, comedian Craig Ferguson attempted to let Vlad wriggle off history’s hook… Germany, not Russia, persecuted people for dressing differently (oh, wait!...) and invaded its neighbors to “protect” the ethnic Germans of Czechoslovakia, Poland and France or, for that matter, Uganda (uh… wait again!).

Meanwhile, back in Washington, President Obama and Defense Secretary Hagel were putting finishing touches on the 2015 budget… probably (and hopefully) an exercise in futility barring massive changes in the Congress come November.  It was another of those one-sided “deals” that please neither side… token tax increases on the rich, less than token cuts in government expenditures save one: reducing the size of the Army from its current level of 530,000 by 20% to 440,000 over the next several years. 

Citing Hagel’s contention that the military must adapt to a world “more volatile, more unpredictable,” the New York Times concluded that he meant that our armed forces become “leaner and meaner”.

Well, “meaner” as in shooting, stoning and droning civilians seems about to get us kicked out of Afghanistan… maybe a good thing, maybe not.  And if, by “leaner” the Times applauded changes that (for a week or less) reflected “a necessary and more prudent realism as America ends 13 years at war”… an opinion seconded by the also-liberal CNN, calling the HO (Hegel/Obama) budget a call to “get real” and to “reset and reshape”… the Time-Warner blog Swampland replied that it, “won’t mean the U.S. can’t wage war, it’ll just mean that it will take longer to do so, and with more casualties.”

The national (and Wall Street) euphoria over the Potemkin budget… to employ a Crimean metaphor… deflated after a few days when olVlad sent his troops into Sevastopol.  The peninsula has been a shuttlecock between Ukraine and Russia since the days of Catherine the Great; an innocuous bureaucratic transfer ordered by Nikita Khruschev in 1954 placed the region in Ukrainian hands despite the majority of its inhabitants being ethnic and linguistic Russians, and among the prizes that fell to Kiev after the collapse of the Soviet Union 20 years ago was the huge naval base at Sebastopol.

The pro-Russia prime minister of Crimea, Sergei Aksyonov, promised that a public referendum on independence (not absorption) would be held on March 30 and alleging that there were real threats to the life and health of  the Russian majority/minority (notably the escaped strongman Viktor Yanukovych, whom Ukrainians plan to try as a war criminal).  The Russian news agency Tass reported that 675,000 Ukrainians had fled to Russia in January and February and that there were signs of a “humanitarian catastrophe.”

Establishment forces… Democrats, of course, most moderate Republicans and Wall Street… have hailed the deposition of Yanko as a new version of the Arab Spring, a sort of Ukrainian Spring with a united populace rising up against the wiles of an evil dictator.

But might not the truth be more elusive?  We’ll let the President’s budget fester for a week… given that the present circumstances might land Don Jones in the midst of a nuclear war, should both our Administration and Putin’s miscalculate.

Miscalculate?  Impossible!  We all know President Obama is a genius and, with the full support of Congress, our steadfast allies in NATO and the United Stations, nigh onto invincible.  And Vlad… well, he likes to take off his shirt as much as Matthew McConnaghy – and McConnaghy won an Oscar.

Those guys… miscalculate?  Naah

But… anyway…

 History tends to refute the existence of angels on either side of battle lines, wherever they may be.  In the past week, mobile, Internet and landline communications from Crimea to Kiev have been cut and 150,000 Russian troops began playing “war games” on the Ukrainian border while pro-Russian “self-defense” forces with banners condemning the “fascist regime” in Kiev blocked Ukrainian military bases and brawled with supporters of the new regime in the streets.

Are Putin’s puppets simply mouthing slogans… or is there danger behind the barricades in Kiev, as in Kharkiv?  The kind of unintended consequences America only woke up to after Mohammed Morsi’s Muslim Brotherhood took power in Egypt, and Al Qaeda began slithering into the democratic opposition to Syria’s tyrant, Assad?

Consider the history of the region… from the Crimean War through the Ukrainian-Soviet conflict after World War I, to World War II…

Where France, Britain, Sardinia, Poland and Greece and Austria came to the defense of Ottoman Turkey over its persecution of Christians… essentially, the French were more concerned with the fate of Catholics than with Orthodox Russians... and Napoleon III saw an opportunity to prevent Moscow from establishing Black Sea ports.  A successful Allied campaign eliminated most of the ships of the Russian Navy in the Black Sea, the Royal Navy blockaded Russia in the Baltic while the Allied army besieged and finally occupied Sevastopol after several bloody battles (one of which became the source of Tennyson’s “Charge of the Light Brigade”).  The Treaty of Paris (1856) returned Wallachia (Romania) Moldova and Crete to the Ottomans and Crimea to the Russians… on the provision that the Tsar would never construct military facilities thereupon. 

Almost all of the provisions were overturned during and after the Franco-Prussian War, fifteen years later.

The Soviet-Ukrainian war (transpiring 1917-21 after Russia’s withdrawal from World War I) initially saw a defeat of the Bolsheviks in Kiev by pro-Tsarist street mobs… the Soviet forces fled to Kharkiv where, joined by Cossacks and Bolsheviks from other parts of Russia, they advanced west and conquered Kiev in February, 1918.  But, despite Russian withdrawal from the Allies and signing a peace treaty to that effect, German, Austrian and Polish troops reinforced the exiles and Ukraine was liberated, again, in June.

The Bolsheviks, however, fought on under a new leader Josef Stalin.  Having lost their war, Germany and Austria abandoned their Ukrainian allies, and the Red Army advanced westwards through 1919… now swelled by troops from Ukrainian anarchist Nestor Makhno’s Black Army… recapturing Kiev in February, losing it in May and gaining it again a few weeks later.  Inevitably, the Communists and Anarchists fell out; Makhno’s ranks were decimated by typhus affording Trotsky the opportunity to turn on the Black Army until an advance by Gen. Wrangel’s White Army (composed of Tsarist loyalists and conservatives from the Baltics to Siberia and, until they signed a separate peace on October 18, 1920, Polish troops) convinced Moscow to bring the anarchists back into the fold.  But less than two weeks after assisting the Red Army to force Wrangel’s evacuation from Crimea, Makhno's headquarters staff and many of his subordinate commanders were arrested at a Red Army planning conference to which they had been invited by Moscow, and executed. Makhno escaped to Paris, Wrangel to Brussels.

Goosestep forward two decades.  Again, the German army… already having absorbed Austria, though not with much campaigning from most Austrians and, this time, allied with Italy, Japan, Romania, Hungary and Russia instead of Turkey… sweeps west, this time capturing France and forcing the British to evacuate from Dunkirk.  In Paris, they’ve evidently looted Napoleon’s playbook, because the Nazis decide to break off the alliance with Moscow and invade Russia.  In the winter.

It was the opportunity Ukrainians have been waiting for.  A small faction of hooligans, thugs and terrorists; the Organization of Ukrainian Nationalists (OUN)… formed in 1929 to, “protect ethnic Ukrainians” in Poland and the Soviet Union…joined with Germany.  In June 1934, the OUN had assassinated Bronislaw Pieracki, the Polish minister of internal affairs, and one of the conspirators, Stepan Bandera (1909-1959) went to prison until 1939, when the Nazis took Poland.

Now a hero, Bandera took command of the most radical faction of the OUN.  He gladdened Mr. Hitler’s cold, cold heart by slaughtering Russians… especially Jews… but his stated aim of an independent Ukraine disturbed der Fuhrer (whose world vision was One Germany, uber alles).  So Bandera was thrown back into prison, this time in Berlin and, later, Sachsenhausen until 1944, when the Wehrmacht, now under fire east and west, re-recognized the Ukrainian partisans, now calling themselves the Ukrainian Insurgent Army (or UPA) which had gone back to its old tricks, murdering thousands of Poles, Russians, Jews and noncompliant Ukrainians.

With Germany’s surrender, the Red Army could focus on wiping out the UPA and did so, although guerrilla fighting continued until the Cold War began heating up, around 1950.  American and British intelligence services recruited some of the surviving fighters, giving rise to the Soviet belief in an ongoing terrorist underground of “German-Ukrainian fascists” – somewhat justified, somewhat not.  (Bandera escaped to Germany, become what Timothy Snyder (nybooks.com) called “a leading figure in the fractious milieu of Ukrainian nationalists in Munich” remaining  …faithful to the idea of a fascist Ukraine until assassinated by the KGB in 1959.”)

Despite the best efforts of Soviets during the long Cold War, Bandera remained an underground hero to militant Ukrainians… Fascist or not… and, after independence, became an overground hero.  As Ukraine teetered between its pro-Soviet East and pro-West West, Viktor Yushchenko’s NATO-friendly “Orange Revolution” gained primacy after the candidate survived a failed assassination attempt and then, perhaps in the spirit of “an enemy of my enemy is my friend”, awarded Bandera a commemorative postage stamp and the highest state honor of “Hero of Ukraine”, provoking protests from the chief rabbi of Ukraine, the president of Poland, assorted European parliamentary debaters and many of his own citizens.

Pro-Russia demonstrators waving flags reading: “Sevastopol without Fascism,” have urged Ukrainian officers to come over to their side rather than serve the “illegal fascist regime” in Kiev. The demonstrators shoved packs of cigarettes, candy and bottles of water through gate for the Ukrainian guards.

“They have to make a choice -- they either obey the fascists in Kiev or the people,” said Sergei Seryogin, a pro-Russia activist outside. Kiev, he said, “is illegal power” and should be ignored by all military and civil officials.

Call it propaganda, pique or protest, Putin’s waving the swastika flag over the liberationists resonates with Ukrainians, who have long memories and much to remember.  Of course, they have also accused Russia of supporting fascism… which, in fact, it did when it joined Hitler and the OUN against Poland.  So, with both sides trumpeting that the other is aligned with a movement that killed and wounded twenty million Russians back in the day, any hopes that Ukraine’s Russian-speaking East will join in resisting the annexation of Crimea would be vain and foolish hopes indeed, giving rise to Mr. Putin’s ambitions to annex Crimea, then Eastern Ukraine, then take Kiev, and then…

As Obama dithered and right-wing peaceniks sniped, CBS News asked “How far will Putin go to extend his sphere of influence?”

Perhaps… Oklahoma City?

Today, Bandera’s banner has been picked up by Svoboda ("Freedom"), a movement founded in 1991 as the Social National Party of Ukraine.  Under Yushchenko, recalls the American conservative Justin Raimondo, eight Svobodies were appointed to Cabinet posts (including, Oleh Tyahnybok, an unrepentant anti-Semite who rails against “Kikes” and, making a speech at the gravesite of a Banderist commander, declared: "You are the ones that the Moscow-Jewish mafia ruling Ukraine fears most." and Dmytro Yarosh – deputy head of the National Security Council, i.e. the police, and the founder-leader of "Right Sector," a militant neo-Nazi paramilitary group).

Perhaps an anti-Fascist backlash contributed to the demise of Yushchenko and rise of Yanukovich, who proved a typical Soviet-era apparatchik… enriching himself by being a good neighbor to Putin’s Russia (and its plentiful natural gas, many pipelines therewith running through Ukraine to America’s NATO allies).  Almost certainly, Yanko’s decision to increase trade agreements with Moscow and decrease those with the West led to at least a passive approval of revolution on the part of the West (that’s you, Germany! – with your dependence on Russia for 38% of your gas) until Russia’s seizure of the Crimea threatened the Euros where it hurt… their heating and cooking apparatus.  Not too much fun… eating cold crepes, pasta and schnitzel… if some of Moscow’s threats short of war transpire!

Still, our allies have unleashed mighty speeches.

French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius said in a statement: 'France is extremely concerned by the reports from Crimea, which describe significant troop movements.

British Foreign Secretary William Hague added “…we have now summoned the Russian Ambassador to the Foreign Office to register our deep concerns.  I also spoke to German Foreign Minister Steinmeier, where we agreed on the need for international diplomatic action to address the crisis.”

Well, if diplomacy fails and the world falls into a protracted economic (short of a shooting) war, NATO can at least be relieved that it is March, and not November.

The DJI will follow up on developments next week, and also outline the scope of Sec. Hagel’s military cuts… and how they might be viewed by the Russians.

As for Don Jones, how could it have been anything other than a bad week.  Not only the threat of war (or an American capitulation that will invite bigger wars, down the road) but we imported more, exported less; produced less, consumed more… a certain recipe for misery.  And, despite the rosy scenarios proffered by experts, a decline in the rate that our trade and budgetary deficits are growing, it still means an increase in the deficits.

________

THE DON JONES INDEX

 

 

CHART of CATEGORIES w/ VALUE ADDED to EQUAL BASELINE of 15,000.00

(REFLECTING… approximately… DOW JONES INDEX of June 27, 2013)

 


See a further explanation of categories here…

Simply recording gains or losses is deceptive, because some of the indices here represent GOOD things (like incomes and life expectancy) while others represent BAD things (unemployment, terror).  So, increases in good things and decreases in bad things are considered GOOD (and are depicted in GREEN) – decreases in good things and increases in the bad are considered BAD (and are depicted in RED).

The sum of good things, less the sum of bad things, equals the gain (or loss) to Don Jones.

 

DON JONES’ PERSONAL ECONOMIC INDEX  (45% of total Index points)

INCOME

(24%)

BASE 6/27/13

RECKONINGS

   LAST      CHANGE    NEXT

DON         2/26

DON         3/5

OUR SOURCE(S)

Wages (per cap.)

10%

1500 points

1/1/14

+0.1%

3/5/14

1513.96

1513.96

 http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-states/wages   10.31 nd

Equality

5

750

9/10/13

n/d

?

711.55

711.55

http://stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx?DataSetCode=IDD  .038 nd

Unemployment

9

450

2/12/14

-1.5%

Mar. 2014

531.39

531.39

http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000000   6.6 nd

Official

450

2/26/14

-0.4%

3/12/14

529.94

532.03

http://www.usdebtclock.org/         9907 9868

Unofficial

450

2/26/14

-0.26%

3/12/14

540.44

541.87

http://www.usdebtclock.org/          19320 19269

WEALTH

6%

 

 

 

 

 

 Dow Jones 

2

300

2/26/14

+0.96%

3/12/14

302.72

305.3

Dow Jones index  16,359.57

9Home Valuations          

2

300

2/26/14

sales -5.1 price -4.6

3/14

169.77  181.12

169.77  181.12

http://www.realtor.org/topics/existing-home-sales    -5.1% nd http://www.realtor.org/research-and-statistics 188.9 nd

Debt (Personal)     

2

300

2/19/14

+.03%

3/12/14

287.63

287.53

http://www.newyorkfed.org/research/data indicators/household index.html  and http://www.usdebtclock.org/          51597

OUTGO

15%

(See a  below)

 

 

 

 

Inflation                   

9

1350

2/26/14

+0.1%

Feb. 2014

1335.61

1335.61

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm   0.1 nd

Food

2%

300

2/26/14

+0.1%

Feb. 2014

296.85

296.85

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm   0.1 nd

Gas

2%

300

2/26/14

-0.1%

Feb. 2014

265.74

265.74

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm   -0.1* nd

 

Taxes

2%

300

variable

n/d

?

300

300

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

UNITED STATES ECONOMIC INDEX  (15%)

ANNUAL

5%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 Income (per cap.)

1%

150

4/23/12

n/d

Yearly

151.08

151.08

http://bber.unm.edu/econ/us-pci.htm

Expends. (cnsmr.)      

1%

150

12/24/13

n/d

Feb. 2014

149.70

149.70

http://www.bls.gov/cpi 

 U.S. Debt

3%

450

3/5/14

+0.21%

3/12/14

432.14

431.22

http://www.usdebtclock.org/   17409

CUMULATIVE

5%

 

 

 

 

 

Revenues

1%

150

3/5/14

+0.17%

3/12/14

160.62

161.18

http://www.usdebtclock.org/       2866

Expenditures

1%

150

3/5/14

+0.09%

3/12/14

150.99

150.86

http://www.usdebtclock.org/       3506

Total Debt 

3%

450

3/5/14

+0.04%

3/12/14

435.61

435.44

http://www.usdebtclock.org/         60936

WORLD TRADE

5%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Exports

1%

150

3/5/14

+1.85%

Apr. 2014

157.48

154.56

http://www.census.gov/foreign-     trade/statistics/highlights/congressional.html    1913

Imports 

1%

150

3/5/14

+0.41%

Apr. 2014

147.99

147.41

http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/statistics/highlights/congressional.html      2300

Trade Deficit

1%

150

3/5/14

+10.7%

Apr. 2014

171.87

153.52

http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/statistics/highlights/congressional.html     387*

Foreign Debt 

2%

300

3/5/14

+2.9%

3/12/14

314.11

310.30

http://www.usdebtclock.org/     5957.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EDUCATION INDEX        (10%)

World Standard

4%

600

2010

n/d

Yearly

599

599

Test Scores

2%

300

2010

n/d

Yearly +

300

300

 

Dropout Rate

2%

300

2010

n/d

Yearly +

300

300

 

Costs

2%

300

8/15/12

n/d

?

 286.36

286.36

http://nces.ed.gov/fastfacts/display.asp?id=76

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

HEALTH INDEX        (10%)

Life Expectancy

4%

600

2012

n/d

unknown

600

600

n/d

Medical Costs

2%

300

2/26/14

n/d

3/14

297.30

297.30

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm   -.8 nd +0.2

Environment

3%

450

3/5/14

 n/d

3/12/14

442.24

442.24

    A quiet week for America.  China, not so.  Pollution there is getting so bad, the government may actually do something!

Natural Disasters

1%

150

3/5/14

+0.1%

3/12/14

136.20

136.06

   Wet, wintry weather continues in the East.  Next – the big digout and, then, the big floods.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

SECURITY INDEX           (5%)1204

Crime Rates

3%

450

2013

n/d

unknown

447.80

447.80

  n/d

Prison Population

1%

150

2013

n/d

unknown

155.15

155.15

   n/d

Terrorism

1%

150

3/5/14

+0.2%

3/12/14

146.97

146.68

Does State terrorism count as terrorism.  To Don Joneses – here and in Ukraine – it does.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

LIBERTY INDEX   (5%)

Freedom

3%

450

3/5/14

-2.5%

As occurs

460.82

449.30

Large nations invading smaller nations never works out well… for anybody, history says

Corruption

1%

150

11/26/13

n/d

As occurs

170.28

170.28

   n/c

World Peace

1%

150

3/5/14

-1.0%

3/12/14

143.37

141.94

Now that he knows that the West will not respond to his land grab, how far will Putin go? 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TRANSIENT INDEX    (10%)

All

10%

1000

3/5/14

-1.0%

3/12/14

987.88

978.00

War is not healthy for most Don Joneses, except those who promote and profit by it.  Perhaps the only thing worse is a dishonorable peace.

 

SUMMARY:

The Don Jones Index for the week of February 26th through March 4th was DOWN 39.58 points.

 

The Don Jones Index is sponsored by the Coalition for a New Consensus: retired Congressman and Independent Presidential candidate Jack “Catfish” Parnell, Chairman; Brian Doohan, Administrator/Editor.  The CNC denies, emphatically, allegations that the organization, as well as its officers (including former Congressman Parnell, environmentalist/America Firster Austin Tillerman and cosmetics CEO Rayna Finch) and references to Parnell’s works, “Entropy and Renaissance” and “The Coming Kill-off” are fictitious or mere pawns in the e-serial “Black Helicopters” - and promise swift, effective legal action against all parties promulgating this and other such slanders.

 

Comments, complaints, donations (especially SUPERPAC donations):  feedme@generisis.com

 

*According to the US census…

December 2013
Trade Numbers

Deficit: $38.7 Billion
Exports: $191.3 Billion
Imports: $230.0 Billion

Includes statistical corrections from previous months.