THE DON JONES INDEX…	GAINS POSTED in GREEN LOSSES POSTED in RED
	1/22/16… 15,534.66 1/25/16… 15,514.36
	6/27/13… 15,000.00

(THE DOW JONES INDEX: 1/22… 15,882.68; 1/15… 15,988.08; 6/27/13… 15,000.00)

LESSON for JANUARY 22, 2016 – Which Goes First? The Honey or the Egg?

Back to the grind… “The Coming Kill-Off” updated. In taking inventory of the necessities for human sustention, we have named the first (or, rather, the first two)… breathable air and a temperate climate. The former means an oxygen content of no less than fifteen percent… and without numerous noxious complementary gases like methane, overtly acidic or alkaline substances or (as the unhappy inhabitants of the biosphere learned) nitrous oxide… and the latter, with credit due the Libyans and Eskimos, from about -40º F to +130º, the present global extremes. And then comes water… potable water that does not contain too many toxic chemicals or bacteria. (We may assume some of the citizens of Bangladesh or Central Africa or Flint, Michigan are living on the edge of that. And then… a food supply.

Some years ago, scientists like Paul Ehrlich, Jeremy Rifkin and others of the doomsaying sectors opined that population growth was proceeding so quickly that all available food would be gone by the close of the last century. A science-fiction writer (in “Stand on Zanzibar”) even extrapolated a planet where no human being has more than a square yard of space before bumping into a neighbor. This would obviously cause other difficulties… war, cannibalism and the like. The Y2K came and went and, if population was not exactly decreasing, it was (like the national debt) increasing at a slower rate than previously. Then, former Vice President Al Gore and others posited a new menace, climate change… popularly described as global warming, although it may be more accurately described as global polarization; that is to say, colder winters and much hotter summers.

A lack of breathable air, tolerable climate and potable water would kill off Americans (and the rest of the species) within a few days, hours or seconds. A longer-term concern is what sublethal measures of these or other conditions might affect our food supply.

Really? you may ask… and some captains of industry and the politicians in their pocket might snarl stronger denials (humbug! or poppycock!) being the most family friendly of these. And while we may take confidence that a blow to the national and world food supply would occur only over time… perhaps so long that obesity and its consequent diseases would continue to be an affliction… two imminent threats and one realized, now easing, have or will put the squeeze on delicacies most of us would prefer not to do with out.

Most recently,

Demand for chocolate is stronger than ever, reported the Wall Street Journal (1/13/16), especially now that more consumers in China and India “are buying bars and bonbons long considered an unaffordable luxury. But cocoa production is down, including a steep slide last year in Ghana, the second-largest cocoa-growing country. Cocoa prices have jumped nearly 40% since the start of 2012.

“Global demand for chocolate rose 0.6% to a record 7.1 million tons in 2015, led by a 5.9% jump in Asia, according to research firm Euromonitor International. Cocoa production fell 3.9% to 4.2 million tons, estimates the International Cocoa Organization. The two totals are different because the ingredients in chocolate include sugar and often milk. In the growing season that ended Sept. 30, Ghana’s cocoa production slid 18% from a year earlier because of disease, dry weather and shifts in government policy. Ivory Coast’s cocoa harvest increased 2.8%. Many analysts expect production in those two countries, which grow about 60% of all cocoa, to drop in the current season, hurt by problems such as the old age of many trees, more bad weather and disease.”

Worse, one Professor David Guest, from the University of Sydney's Department of Plant and Food Sciences, says a worldwide shortage of cocoa has been predicted by 2020. Prof Guest gave ABC News (4/1/15) are a number of reasons for the expected dearth…

"Firstly, about 70 per cent of our beans come from West Africa and West Africa's been experiencing a whole range of political and social upheaval over the past couple of decades. In other countries like Indonesia there's a range of factors like the build up of pests and diseases and a whole range of crops farmers are growing that are more profitable than cocoa."

He also cited the intense labour required to grow cocoa as an issue inasmuch as war, terrorism and low wages are prompting workers to move to cities in search of a better life. And a Tulane University study commissioned by the Labor Department calculated an 18% rise from 2008 to 2014 in the number of children who work on Ivorian and Ghanaian cocoa farms under hazardous conditions such as clearing land, carrying heavy loads, or for long hours, at night or with exposure to agrochemicals.

Nestlé set up a child-labor monitoring system in Ivory Coast in 2013 that has identified some 4,000 children working on family farms in hazardous tasks the company classified as child labor.

Ivory Coast and Ghana have largely banned the use of child labor, but it is hard for authorities to check all the farms in rural areas. “Child labor is a complex problem, and there are no quick or easy solutions,” says Darrell High, cocoa manager at Nestlé.

The Hershey Company was kind enough to supply foodtimeline.org with price/weight data for their famous Hershey Bar from 1908-1986 and researchers uncovered the subsequent data from store advertisements. (Our Managing editor notes * that six large generic chocolate bars could be purchased for 19 Cents shortly following the Summer of Love!)

[1908] 9/16 oz.....2 cents [1918] 16/16 oz.....3 cents [1920] 9/16 oz.....3 cents [1921] 1 oz.....5 cents [1924] 1 3/8 oz.....5 cents [1930] 2 oz.....5 cents [1933] 1 7/8 oz.....5 cents [1936] 1 1/2 oz.....5 cents [1937] 1 5/8 oz.....5 cents [1938] 1 3/8 oz.....5 cents [1939] 1 5/8 oz.....5 cents [1941] 1 1/4 oz.....5 cents [1944] 1 5/8 oz.....5 cents [1946] 1 1/2 oz.....5 cents [1947] 1 oz.....5 cents [1954] 7/8 oz.....5 cents [1955] 1 oz.....5 cents [1958] 7/8 oz.....5 cents

[1960] 1 oz.....5 cents [1963] 7/8 oz......5 cents [1965] 1 oz.....5 cents [1966] 7/8 oz.....5 cents [1968] 3/4 oz.....5 cents* [1969] 1 1/2 oz.....10 cents [1970] 1 3/8 oz.....10 cents [1973] 1.26 oz......10 cents [1974] 1.4 oz.....15 cents [1975*] 1.05 oz.....15 cents [1976] 1.2 oz.....15 cents [1977] 1.2 oz......20 cents [1978] 1.2 oz.....25 cents [1980] 1.05 oz.....25 cents [1982] 1.45 oz.....30 cents [1983] 1.45 oz.....35 cents [1986] 1.45 oz.....40 cents [1986] 1.65 oz.....40 cents

[1991] .45
"Last year, candy makers raised the price of candy bars 5 cents, to an average of 45 cents. The previous hike was in 1986."
---M&Ms Plans to Nickel and Dime the Competition, New York Newsday, April 8, 1992 (p. 41) [NOTE: product weight not referenced in this article]
[1995] .50
1.55 oz., Value of a Dollar: Prices and Incomes in the United States 1860-2009, Scott Derks [Grey House Publishing:Millerton NY] 2009 (p. 641)
[2003] .80
1.55 oz Hershey Bar purchased at Quik (privately owned convenience store), Randolph NJ...80 cents
[2007] .79
1.45 oz.,Value of a Dollar
[2008] .59
1.55 oz., Super FoodTown (regional grocery chain), Cedar Knolls NJ
[2009] $1.10
1.55 oz., 7-Eleven convenience store, Randolph NJ
[2010] .95
1.55 oz., Acme supermarket, Randolph NJ
[2011] .99
1.55 oz, Super FoodTown, Cedar Knolls NJ
[2013] .99
1.55 oz, Super FoodTown, Cedar Knolls NJ

If the so-called “chocopocalypse” will inconvenience gluttons and lovers, the vanishing honeybee population has ramifications beyond the potential disappearance or price spikes in the sticky stuff.

Over the last year the number of bees in the world decreased by about one-third, according to the industry journal keepingbee.org., raising concerns that, over the next 20 years, honey bees may disappear entirely. This forecast was made by experts of Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO).

“The disappearance of the honey plants started in the U.S., and then continued in Europe, Latin America and Asia. Fallen into a panic, people remembered Einstein. He made a prophecy that mass death of bees and bumble bees all over the planet will lead to the disappearance of mankind in 4 years (which has been disputed by some scholars). And they began to disappear in 2006.”

The journal stated that the concern of scientists is clear: if the bees disappear, pollination will stop.  Plants disappear – and mankind can be threatened.

Dr. Dennis vanEngelsdorp—a University of Maryland entomologist who helps collect and publish the winter death data each spring— told Time Magazine (4/15/15) there are three “primary drivers” of honeybee loss: The varroa mite, pesticides and poor nutrition. He doesn’t hesitate when asked to name the largest threat to bees: “I’d get rid of the varroa first.”

“Varroa mites, properly (and frighteningly) named Varroa destructor, likely migrated to the U.S. sometime in the 1980s. They attach to a honeybee’s body and suck its blood, which kills many bees and spreads disease to others. The varroa can jump from one colony to another, wiping out whole populations of honeybees, vanEngelsdorp explains. There are treatments that combat the varroa. But many small-scale beekeepers don’t use them. “That’s bad, because they can spread mites to neighboring colonies,” he added.

What else leads us to an environmental disaster?  There was an article of British and French scientists in the Science magazine, which tells that bumble bees are exterminated by a new type of insecticide. These chemicals are made for more efficient destruction of various  pests. But bees suffer also. And the beekeepers posited another hypothesis about the causes of extinction of bees. “According to the hypothesis, the increased radio background in the world entails the disappearance of bees. Also we have a large number of cellular base stations and mobile phones. When scientists began to study  this problem in Israel and the U.S., it turned out, that radiofrequency electromagnetic fields affect the bees.”

So – another reason to stop that damn texting!

Now even a near-worst case scenario (one which the World Conservation Union’s “Red List” of plants and animals might describe as “vulnerable” or “endangered” as opposed to “critically endangered” or, even, “extinct”) is not likely to result in the disappearance of Mars Bars or Nut n’ Honey cereal from the shelves of the world supermarket. It will just raise their prices. The rich will go on about as ever, choosing these items at will (or having their butlers do so); scarcity might even accomplish the effect of making a Snickers more a statement of conspicuous consumption. As for the poor, they might still call their significant others “honey” but, instead of a Whitman’s Sampler, they’ll have to romance their partners with broccoli or French fries. (I could say “bacon” instead, but have you noticed that its cost has been soaring too, despite the relative stability of other pig-related goodies?

What would be the ultimate outcome of a less-than-extinctive event? Consider the humble egg, over the past two years.

In May, 2013, an outbreak of avian flu struck Mexico with the result being that producers vastly increased their exports – which policy led to higher prices. “The producer price index for fresh eggs soared almost 42%, the biggest gain on record,” the Labor Department told the Wall Street Journal on June 13^th. But one Dave Harvey, an economist at the USDA, said the price surge probably wouldn’t last and the USDA expected Mexico’s egg production to stabilize as the country repopulated its flocks.

“Prices have already started to come down from May,” noted the Journal. “In the Northeast, wholesale prices for large eggs were about 87 cents to 91 cents a dozen earlier this month, compared with a high range of $1.25 to $1.29 earlier in May.”

Expenditure category	Relative Importance Nov. 2015			Unadjusted percent change			Unadjusted Indexes (1982-84=100)			Seasonally adjusted percent change
		Mar. 2011- Mar. 2012	Dec. 2012- Dec. 2013	Dec. 2013- Dec. 2014	Dec. 2014- Dec. 2015	Nov. 2015- Dec. 2015	Dec. 2014	Nov. 2015	Dec. 2015	Sep. 2015- Oct. 2015	Oct. 2015- Nov. 2015	Nov. 2015- Dec. 2015	1865
All items	100.000	2.7	1.5	0.8	0.7	-0.3	234.812	237.336	236.525	0.2	0.0	-0.1
Food	14.239	3.3	1.1	3.4	0.8	-0.2	245.976	248.306	247.903	0.1	-0.1	-0.2
Food at home	8.329	3.6	0.4	3.7	-0.4	-0.4	242.457	242.240	241.375	0.1	-0.3	-0.5
Meats, poultry, fish, and eggs	1.978	5.3	2.9	9.2	-2.2	-1.5	261.055	259.141	255.298	-0.5	-0.6	-1.4
Poultry	0.354	6.5	3.0	9.1	-2.2	-1.4				0.5	0.5	-1.3
Eggs	0.152	5.1	5.8	10.7	14.8	-0.1				-4.8	-3.8	-3.4

Notes: Consumer Price Index

Beginning in March, 2012, the BLS expanded its data to include “Detailed Expenditure Categories” that included a separate index for EGGS as apart from and in addition to the “Meats, poultry, fish and eggs” category formerly used since 1994. On September 28, 2000, the BLS released revised Consumer Price Indexes for January through August 2000. The All Items Index for the U.S. City Average was affected, as well as selected lower-level indexes. Note that the news releases below for January through August 2000 contain unrevised data. For further information on this topic see Revisions in January to August 2000 CPI Data.

A consumer site, thepeoplehistory.com, has been tracking the price of commodities since 2008 using the basepoint “A Shopping Basket plus a Gallon of Gas”. See below. Their research on egg prices produced the following…

Shopping Basket ** Foods Notes and Comments on Brands and Weights at end of table ( Prices Taken in Indianapolis 2013, 2014 and 2015)
Year	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
Loaf Bread	Jan. $1.68	Aug. $1.77	Feb. $2.49	Aug. $1.98	Sep. $1.88	Dec. $1.98	Dec. $1.98	Nov. $1.98
Lb Potatoes	Nov. 32 ¢	Aug. 55 ¢	Feb. 52 ¢	Aug. 60 ¢	Sep. 42 ¢	Dec. 88 ¢	Dec. 49 ¢	Nov. 78 ¢
Gal Milk	$2.65	$2.69	$2.79	Aug. $3.39	Sep. $2.79	Dec. $4.28	Dec. $3.15	Nov. $3.98
Lb Bacon	Dec. $2.96	Aug. $3.19	Jan. $3.22	Aug. $3.98	Sep. $4.48	Dec. $4.98	Dec. $5.48	Nov. $5.24
Doz Eggs	Apr. $1.29	Aug. $1.34	Jan. $1.37	Aug. $1.25	Sep. $1.54	Dec. $1.88	Dec. $1.98	Nov. $2.77

Researchers at the University of California tracked prices on a monthly basis from 1982 to the end of 2005. Most variations were small and localized.

From animalscience at UC Davis…

Table 2: Retail Egg Prices - 1982 to 2005 Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics

Eggs: Grade A, Large, per dozen

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Av

1982 0.925 1.007 0.952 0.896 0.842 0.783 0.851 0.778 0.852 0.854 0.849 0.813 0.867

1983 0.831 0.794 0.836 0.825 0.865 0.825 0.847 0.884 0.938 0.962 0.996 1.131 0.895

1984 1.301 1.324 1.153 1.199 1.054 0.903 0.876 0.860 0.854 0.842 0.823 0.867 1.005

1985 0.746 0.784 0.790 0.783 0.745 0.724 0.787 0.789 0.857 0.860 0.872 0.906 0.804

1986 0.901 0.866 0.887 0.890 0.820 0.795 0.833 0.913 0.868 0.855 0.897 0.910 0.870

1987 0.862 0.823 0.800 0.786 0.763 0.711 0.763 0.730 0.837 0.778 0.805 0.733 0.783

1988 0.760 0.718 0.740 0.719 0.678 0.705 0.803 0.909 0.874 0.896 0.839 0.833 0.790

1989 0.941 0.890 1.031 0.997 0.956 0.937 0.961 0.983 1.038 1.023 1.080 1.137 0.998

1990 1.223 1.041 1.111 1.092 0.940 0.930 0.899 0.954 0.946 1.012 1.018 1.001 1.014

1991 1.106 0.987 1.069 1.002 0.908 0.884 0.966 1.024 0.987 0.976 0.950 1.012 0.989

1992 0.933 0.881 0.850 0.829 0.836 0.801 0.827 0.809 0.873 0.858 0.897 0.928 0.860

1993 0.898 0.895 0.927 0.997 0.895 0.921 0.900 0.929 0.890 0.897 0.917 0.871 0.911

1994 0.917 0.903 0.926 0.861 0.801 0.841 0.815 0.895 0.855 0.810 0.857 0.870 0.863

1995 0.882 0.863 0.875 0.833 0.819 0.825 0.879 0.984 0.956 0.981 1.037 1.160 0.925

1996 1.155 1.091 1.138 1.086 1.021 0.945 1.042 1.072 1.150 1.129 1.139 1.308 1.106

1997 1.148 1.132 1.056 1.081 1.002 0.952 0.979 1.061 1.009 1.018 1.090 1.172 1.058

1998 1.120 1.073 1.043 1.061 0.960 0.932 0.971 1.053 1.022 1.048 1.077 1.089 1.037

1999 1.053 1.078 1.005 0.942 0.900 0.949 0.880 1.020 0.956 0.888 0.920 0.920 0.959

2000 0.975 0.962 0.931 0.939 0.852 0.838 0.868 0.893 0.920 0.923 0.902 0.959 0.914

2001 1.011 0.943 0.886 1.028 0.881 0.920 0.862 0.929 0.916 0.916 0.935 0.925 0.929

2002 0.973 0.996 1.003 1.047 0.997 0.975 0.990 1.053 1.055 1.039 1.080 1.176 1.032

2003 1.175 1.189 1.209 1.131 1.009 1.199 1.150 1.277 1.257 1.330 1.448 1.559 1.244

2004 1.573 1.583 1.625 1.562 1.372 1.311 1.253 1.277 1.145 1.089 1.085 1.199 1.340

2005 1.211 1.284 1.132 1.164 1.185 1.139 1.165 1.166 1.279 1.264 1.279 1.350 1.218

Av 1.026 1.004 0.999 0.990 0.921 0.906 0.924 0.968 0.972 0.969 0.991 1.035 0.967

Prepared by Don Bell, Poultry Specialist (emeritus), Univerisity of California

And the Aldrich report of the Dept. of Agriculture went all the way back to 1856 in tabulating egg prices in Boston (1856-89) and New York (1890-1941). Not surprisingly, it was discovered that prices went up during and immediately after wartime… 17 1/2¢ in 1860, 29 3/8¢ by 1865 before gradually falling back… 30¢ in 1916 rising to 57¢ by 1920… nor that they fell during the Depression back to a low of 13.5¢ in the years 1932-3. Had the study been continued, it is likely that another spike in prices would have occurred in 1942.

Fast forward to May of last year, when another outbreak of avian flu struck North American poultry flocks, and the spread of this new infection began picking up speed.

So far, reported Reuters (5/14/15), “more 33 million birds have been or are expected to be killed. Three states – Wisconsin, Minnesota and Iowa – have declared a state of emergency.

Poultry exports, which totaled more than $6 billion last year, have been hit as buyers, including China and Mexico, impose bans on American supplies.

The New York Times published this timeline of the spread of the viruses, according to the Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, part of the United States Agriculture Department; the Food Inspection Agency of Canada; and responses from the industry and trade partners.

Dec. 2, 2014 Canadian authorities quarantine two turkey and chicken farms in British Columbia after an H5 type of avian influenza is detected there, later confirmed to be the H5N2 strain.

Dec. 3 South Korea, Hong Kong, Taiwan and Japan impose restrictions on poultry and poultry products from British Columbia.

Dec. 8 The United States suspends imports of birds and hatching eggs, poultry meat, eggs, egg products and animal byproducts from British Columbia.

Dec. 19 The outbreak’s first case in the United States is confirmed when an H5N8 avian influenza strain is found in a mixed poultry flock in Douglas County, Ore.

Dec. 20 South Korea, a top buyer of United States poultry, halts imports of American poultry and poultry products.

Jan. 3, 2015 The first case of the highly contagious H5N2 avian influenza strain is confirmed in a backyard flock of 140 mixed birds in Benton County, Wash.

Jan. 6 Mexico, the largest market for United States poultry at $1.2 billion in 2014, bans imports from states with confirmed cases.

Jan. 7 Canada, the No. 2 market for United States poultry, bans imports from affected areas.

Jan. 8 China bans imports of United States poultry, poultry products and eggs.

Jan. 23 H5N8 appears for the first time in a commercial turkey flock of 134,400 birds in California.

Feb. 2 Canadian authorities find the H5N1 virus in a backyard poultry flock in British Columbia.

Feb. 12 The first commercial chicken flock is hit with H5N8. The flock, in Kings County, Calif., had 112,900 birds.

March 4 The first instance of highly pathogenic avian influenza, or H.P.A.I., along the Mississippi migratory flyway is confirmed in a commercial flock of 26,310 turkeys in Minnesota, the top turkey-producing state. The flyway runs from the Gulf of Mexico to the northern Midwest along the Mississippi River valley. The virus is thought to be traveling with wild birds as they migrate north.

April 6 Canada confirms an H5 strain of H.P.A.I. on a turkey farm in Ontario. A day later, Japan and Taiwan impose restrictions on poultry and products from the region.

April 11 The H5N2 strain is confirmed for the first time in a commercial chicken operation, affecting 200,000 egg-laying hens in Jefferson County, Wis.

April 20 The biggest flock hit so far: H5N2 is confirmed in 3.8 million egg-laying hens in Osceola County, Iowa. Mexico expands its import ban to include live birds and eggs from Iowa, the top egg-producer in the United States.

April 20 Wisconsin declares a state of emergency.

April 23 Minnesota declares a state of emergency.

April 29 Saudi Arabia, the world’s second-largest importer of chicken broiler meat, bans imports of poultry meat and egg products from Ontario.

April 29 A chicken broiler breeding farm in Kossuth County, Iowa, initially tests positive for H5 bird flu, believed to be the first case at a broiler breeding farm.

May 1 The United States Agriculture Department confirms bird flu in nine more commercial flocks, including a flock of 5.7 million egg-laying hens in Buena Vista County, Iowa, the largest finding to date. Nationwide, more than 21.6 million birds in 114 mostly commercial operations are affected, the worst outbreak in United States history.

May 1 Iowa declares a state of emergency.

May 5 United States authorities approve $330 million in emergency funds to fight the spread of bird flu.

May 11 The Agriculture Department confirms H5N8 avian flu in a backyard poultry flock in Indiana.

The shortage has been exacerbated by new legislation in California requiring farmers to house hens in cages with enough space to move around and stretch their wings. The new standard backed by animal rights advocates has drawn ire nationwide because farmers in Iowa, Ohio and other states who sell eggs in California have to abide by the same requirements.

And, on Wednesday, Phys.Org reported that a bird flu virus has led to the deaths of more than 400,000 turkeys and chickens on 10 farms in a southwest Indiana county was the H7N8 strain. “This isn't the same strain as the H5N2 strain that devastated the poultry industry—mostly in the Upper Midwest—last summer. That strain led to the deaths of 48 million birds, mostly chickens and turkeys,” reported Phys.Org..

Read more at: http://phys.org/news/2016-01-qa-latest-bird-flu.html#jCp

Of late, egg prices have started to decline. December’s Consumer Price Index (below) reported that “Five of the six major grocery store food group indexes declined in December. The meats, poultry, fish, and eggs index declined the most, falling 1.4 percent, its largest decrease since August 1979. The index for beef fell 2.4 percent and the eggs index declined 3.4 percent.”

But all prices for all foodstuffs were up a modest 0.8 percent for 2015. The lesson to be learned is that even extreme fluctuations in food prices occur as a consequence of natural (plague, climate) changes or human intervention (wars, depressions). The bad news is that the latter tend to reinforce the former. But next week, we’ll look at some of the good news.

Don Jones experienced some good news last week, even though his Index increased only slightly. It seems that the Dow has dodged a bullet – allegedly fired by either lower oil prices or a more stagnant Chinese economy.

THE DON JONES INDEX

CHART of CATEGORIES w/ VALUE ADDED to EQUAL BASELINE of 15,000.00

(REFLECTING… approximately… DOW JONES INDEX of June 27, 2013)

See a further explanation of categories here…

Simply recording gains or losses is deceptive, because some of the indices here represent GOOD things (like incomes and life expectancy) while others represent BAD things (unemployment, terror). So, increases in good things and decreases in bad things are considered GOOD (and are depicted in GREEN) – decreases in good things and increases in the bad are considered BAD (and are depicted in RED).

The sum of good things, less the sum of bad things, equals the week’s gain (or loss) to Don Jones.

ECONOMIC FACTORS (60%)

DON JONES’ PERSONAL ECONOMIC INDEX (45% of TOTAL INDEX POINTS)

	INCOME				(24%)	BASE 6/27/13				RECKONINGS LAST CHANGE NEXT					DON 1/15/16	DON 1/22/16	OUR SOURCE(S) and COMMENTS
	Wages (hourly, p/c.)*				10%	1500 points				12/18/15		+0.05%		Jan.	1559.97	1559.97	http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-states/wages 21.22 nd
	Median Income (dc)				4%	600				1/22/16		+0.03%		1/29/16	617.75	617.96	http://www.usdebtclock.org/ 29,116
	Unemployment				4%	600				12/11/15		+2.00%		Jan.	934.96	934.96	http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000000 5.0 nc
	Official #mil.				2%	300				1/22/16		-0.18%		1/29/16	436.69	437.47	http://www.usdebtclock.org/ 7.856
	Unofficial #mil.				2%	300				1/22/16		-0.19%		1/29/16	441.81	442.66	http://www.usdebtclock.org/ 15.515
	Workforce Participation Number Percentage				2%	300				1/22/16		+0.03% +0.06%		1/29/16	298.33	298.44	Americans in/not in workforce (mil.) In: 150.077 Out: 94.176 Total: 244.262 http://www.usdebtclock.org/ 61.44%
																	http://ycharts.com/indicators/labor_force_participation_rate 62.60%
	OUTGO				15%
	Total Inflation				9%	1350				1/22/16		-0.1		1/29/16	1319.36	1320.68	http://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm -0.1
	Food				2%	300				1/22/16		-0.2		1/29/16	285.48	286.05	http://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm -0.2
	Gas				2%	300				1/22/16		-3.9		1/29/16	384.78	399.79	http://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm -3.9
	Medical Costs				2%	300				1/22/16		+0.1		1/29/16	283.06	282.78	http://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm +0.1
	WEALTH				6%
	Dow Jones				2%	300				1/22/16		-0.66%		1/29/16	292.02	290.10	Dow Jones Index 15,882.68
	Home Sales Home Valuations				1% 1%	150 150				1/15/16 1/15/16		sales - 3.42% price – 1.04%		1/29/16 1/29/16	170.10 204.81	170.10 204.81	http://www.realtor.org/research-and-statistics Sales (M): 4.76 Valuations (K): 220.3 nd
	Debt (Personal)				2%	300				1/22/16		+0.05%		1/29/16	277.84	277.70	http://www.usdebtclock.org/ 53,858
	UNITED STATES ECONOMIC INDEX (15% of TOTAL INDEX POINTS)
	NATIONAL				10%
	Revenues (trillions.)				2%	300				1/22/16			+0.09%	1/29/16	368.75	369.08	http://www.usdebtclock.org/ 3.310
	Expenditures (tl.)				2%	300				1/22/16			+0.11%	1/29/16	280.04	279.74	http://www.usdebtclock.org/ 3.755
	U.S. Natl. Debt (tl.)				3%	450				1/22/16			+0.12%	1/29/16	394.48	394.00	http://www.usdebtclock.org/ 18.906
	Total Debt* (tl.)				3%	450				1/22/16			+0.08%	1/29/16	398.80	398.03	http://www.usdebtclock.org/ 64.667
	* U.S. Total Debt includes household, business, state and local government, financial institutions and the Federal Government (source – Federal Reserve)
	GLOBAL				5%
	Foreign Debt (tril.)				2%	300				1/22/16			+0.08%	1/29/16	320.63	320.36	http://www.usdebtclock.org/ 6.0417
	Exports (bl.)				1%	150				12/11/15			+1.03%	1/29/16	144.66	144.66	http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/statistics/highlights/congressional.html 182.2 nd
	Imports (bl.)				1%	150				12/11/15			-1.51%	1/29/16	146.51	146.51	http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/statistics/highlights/congressional.html 224.6
	Trade Deficit (bl.)				1%	150				12/11/15			-3.54%	1/29/16	121.82	121.82	http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/statistics/highlights/congressional.html 42.4
SOCIAL FACTORS (40%)
LIBERTY and SECURITY INDEX (15%)
ACTS of MAN				9%
World Peace				3%			450				1/22/16		+0.1%	1/29/16	421.87	421.45	10,000 year old Kenyan boneyard gives first indication of hominid warfare. What were they fighting about?
Terrorism				2%			300				1/22/16		+0.1%	1/29/16	241.02	243.43	Jihadi John is reported to have been killed. Not much sympathy here!
Freedom				2%			300				1/22/16		+0.2%	1/29/16	298.12	298.72	Iran prison swap – good for the prisoners, better for Republican candidates.
Corruption				1%			150				1/22/16		-0.2%	1/29/16	161.16	160.84	Turns out some money given to political pACS is kept by the pacmen and not given to the candidates. Too Bad. But is tennis going the way of soccer?
Crime				1%			150				1/22/16		-0.1%	1/29/16	131.63	131.50	Sara Palin joins Trump, blames Obama for her PTSD son’s domestic violence arrest. That crazy Barry!
ACTS of GOD			6%					(with, in some cases, a little… or lots of… help from men, and a few women)
Environment/Weather			3%					450			1/22/16	-0.2%		1/29/16	419.75	418.91	Water in Flint still unsafe to drink.
Disasters			3%					450			1/22/16	+0.3%		1/29/16	393.73	392.55	Giant blizzard heads up the eastern seaboard and paralyzes Washington. Don Jones cheers.
LIFESTYLE and JUSTICE INDEX (13%)
Education		4%					600				1/22/16		-0.2%	As manifests	585.29	584.12	Chicago and Detroit schools near bankruptcy.
Equality		4%					600				1/22/16		+0.3%	As manifests	730.21	732.41	Oscars start bowing to pressure while the Buffalo Bills hire a women coach and all Walmart workers are promised a raise.
Health (Life Exp.)		2%					300				1/22/16		+0.1%	As manifests	287.43	287.72	There are more centenarians than ever and, now that hoverboards are being banned, there will be even more.
Health (Other)		2%					300				1/22/16		-0.1%	As manifests	285.21	284.92	TB and Zika mosquito outbreaks are another reason to stay indoors and away from crowds.
Justice		1%					150				1/22/16		+0.2%	As manifests	161.18	161.50	One set of charges against Bill Cosby are dropped, leaving only fifty some to go. Meanwhile, a rapist policeman gets 263 years.
MISCELLANEOUS and TRANSIENT INDEX (13%)
All transient incidents			10%						1000		1/22/16		+0.1%	1/29/16	1017.05	1018.06	New planet discovered. Fun for astronomers, but are their aliens coming to eat us?
Misc. cultural foibles			3%						300		1/22/16		-0.1%	1/29/16	310.40	309.47	Glen Frey death another downer. Celebrities are flocking to politicians… Demi Lovato to Hillary, Simon and Garfunkle to Bernie, Palin to Trump and, for Ted Cruz, fellow Canuck Justin Bieber?

SUMMARY:

The Don Jones Index for the week of January 15^th through 21^st , 2016 was UP 20.30 points

The Don Jones Index is sponsored by the Coalition for a New Consensus: retired Congressman and Independent Presidential candidate Jack “Catfish” Parnell, Chairman; Brian Doohan, Administrator/Editor. The CNC denies, emphatically, allegations that the organization, as well as any of its officers (including former Congressman Parnell, environmentalist/America-Firster Austin Tillerman and cosmetics CEO Rayna Finch) and references to Parnell’s works, “Entropy and Renaissance” and “The Coming Kill-Off” are fictitious or mere pawns in the web-serial “Black Helicopters” – and promise swift, effective legal action against parties promulgating this and/or other such slanders.

Comments, complaints, donations (especially SUPERPAC donations) always welcome at: feedme@generisis.com or: speak@donjonesindex.com

Year	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
Realty
House Rent	$800.00	$780.00	Aug. $945.00	Aug. $955.00	Aug. $1045.00	Dec. $1195.00	Dec.$1314	Nov. N/A
New House Buy	$238,880	$232,880	Nov. $268,700	Mar. $202,100	Aug. $263,200	Dec. $289,500	Dec. $373,500	Sep. $364,100
Commodities
Gallon Gas	Sep. $3.39	Feb. $2.51	Aug. $2.73	Aug. $3.89	Sep. $3.91	Dec. $3.80	Dec. $2.75	Nov. $2.21
KW Hour Elec	Nov. 11.03 ¢	Oct. 11.76 ¢	Sep. 11.97 ¢	Aug. 12.35 ¢	Aug. 13.30 ¢	Dec. 13.30 ¢	Dec. 12.72 ¢	Nov. 12.00 ¢
Shopping Basket ** Foods Notes and Comments on Brands and Weights at end of table ( Prices Taken in Indianapolis 2013, 2014 and 2015)
Loaf Bread	Jan. $1.68	Aug. $1.77	Feb. $2.49	Aug. $1.98	Sep. $1.88	Dec. $1.98	Dec. $1.98	Nov. $1.98
Lb Potatoes	Nov. 32 ¢	Aug. 55 ¢	Feb. 52 ¢	Aug. 60 ¢	Sep. 42 ¢	Dec. 88 ¢	Dec. 49 ¢	Nov. 78 ¢
Gal Milk	$2.65	$2.69	$2.79	Aug. $3.39	Sep. $2.79	Dec. $4.28	Dec. $3.15	Nov. $3.98
Lb Bacon	Dec. $2.96	Aug. $3.19	Jan. $3.22	Aug. $3.98	Sep. $4.48	Dec. $4.98	Dec. $5.48	Nov. $5.24
Doz Eggs	Apr. $1.29	Aug. $1.34	Jan. $1.37	Aug. $1.25	Sep. $1.54	Dec. $1.88	Dec. $1.98	Nov. $2.77
24 Pack Coke	$5.48	$5.98	$6.98	Aug. $6.98	Sep. $6.98	Dec. $7.18	Dec. $7.18	Nov. $5.98
12 Pack Water	$1.90	$1.94	Feb. $2.08	Aug. $2.63	Sep. $2.68	Dec. $2.63	Dec. $2.50	Nov. $2.63
Lb Tomatoes	68 ¢	75 ¢	Feb. 97 ¢	Aug. $1.59	Sep. $1.79	Dec. $1.12	Dec. $1.18	Nov. $1.24
Lb TasteLikeButter	$1.90	$1.94	Dec. $2.28	Aug. $2.68	Sep. $2.68	Dec. $2.49	Dec. $2.88	Nov. $2.88
Lg Cornflakes	$2.34	$2.68	Dec. $2.98	Aug. $3.50	Sep. $1.98	Dec. $2.92	Dec. $2.98	Nov. $2.93
Frozen Pizza	$2.49	$2.49	Dec. $2.90	Aug. $3.00	Sep. $3.33	Dec. $2.52	Dec. $2.98	Nov. $2.50
5 Lb Bag Sugar	$2.68	$2.78	Dec. $3.12	Aug. $2.92	Sep. $2.42	Dec. $2.68	Dec. $1.98	Nov. $2.47
5 Lb Bag Flour	$1.97	$2.06	Dec. $2.18	Aug. $3.12	Sep. $2.98	Dec. $2.46	Dec. $1.98	Nov. $1.46
Lb Ground Beef	$3.68	$3.99	Dec. $3.78	Aug. $3.78	Sep. $4.78	Dec. $4.68	Dec. $5.98	Nov. $5.26
Tide Soap Powder	$5.98	$6.98	Dec. $7.97	Aug. $10.55	Sep. $17.97	Dec. $11.98	Dec. $17.97	Nov. $11.76
Folgers Coffee	$5.49	$7.98	Dec. $8.78	Aug. $12.98	Sep. $8.98	Dec. $7.98	Dec. $8.98	Nov. $10.63
Lb Green Grapes	$1.85	$2.15	Dec. $2.97	Aug. $1.96	Sep. $1.98	Dec. $2.48	Dec. $1.98	Nov. $1.48
Toilet Paper	$3.49	$3.49	Dec. $3.98	Aug. $3.98	Sep. $3.96	Dec. $3.98	Dec. $3.98	Nov. $3.98
Chicken Soup	$1.89	$1.95	Dec. $2.08	Aug. $2.10	Sep. $1.75	Dec. $1.58	Dec. $1.35	Nov. $1.34
Employment
Wages	$40,523	$39,423	Nov. $39,856	Aug. $40,925	Dec. $44,321	Dec. $44,888	Dec. $46.481	Nov. N/A
Unemployment	Jan. 5.4%	May. 8.6%	Nov. 9.8%	Aug. 9.2%	Aug. 8.1%	Dec. 6.7%	Nov. 5.8%	Nov. 5.0%