THE DON JONES INDEX…   

 

LESSON for JULY 16, 2013

 

DOW JONES INDEX                                        7/16/13… 15,459.32

  7/9/13… 14,725.79                    7/16/12  12,777.09

 

 

Hope everybody enjoyed their patriotic vacation.  Now – it’s back to work.

What is, we have asked, the true status of Don Jones, our average American?  Is it wholly his economic status… after all, the Dow Jones Index is one for the numbers crunchers… the aggregate closing value of a couple of hundred stocks multiplied and divided according to a formula no less secretive than that of Hostess Twinkies (which, by chance, returned to the shelves yesterday).

Or, since we are dealing with human beings as opposed to numbers on a sheet of paper… more likely a computer or cellphone screen, these days… must we take into consideration other factors beyond the mere possession and accumulation of wealth?

Our answer to that question must be “Yes”.  Having a lot of money… and, perhaps, the power over others that money confers… may be a desirable thing in America these days… we are, after all (and especially since @ct.), more of a plutocracy than a democracy.  Still, there do exist unhappy millionaires – as evidenced by their suicides, addictions and criminal failings.  And there are humble, hardworking Americans… even those in poverty… who are happy, optimistic, and satisfied with their situation.

Americans are still better off… economically… than most of the rest of the world.  But too many are not only failing to get ahead, they are falling behind… and if there is anything that history and psychology have to tell us, it is that people are less dissatisfied with the paucity of opportunities to move ahead (despite the noisy proclamations of the American Dream… often mouthed by those born not only with silver spoons in said mouths, but a bug of perhaps reasonable paranoia up their behinds) than by seeing what little they have being taken away.

The incomes of factory workers in some of the suburbs of Beijing (not to mention Bangladesh) are certainly rising, but if their workplaces are unsafe and the air unfit to breathe, are they better off than they were a decade ago?  Certain Colombian or Mexican druglords might enjoy high incomes, but at a cost of always having to look over their shoulders, wondering whether and which trusted bodyguard has ambitions of taking his (or her) own shortcut to the top.

The homicide rates for American Presidents still stands at an unnerving nine percent… higher than that of the most desperately poor inhabitants of Chicago or Detroit.

So, factors other than income or wealth have to be factored in if one wishes to create a profile of Don (and Dawn) Jones (a pernicious practice in and of itself, whether conducted by the spooks at NSA or vigilantes like George Zimmerman).  Is he in good health, and able to correct the situation if not?  Will Dawn and her newborn infants survive the birthing process… and will their children receive an education that will enable them to keep up with the rest of the world.  Is their air safe to breathe, their water safe to drink, and do they consider themselves safe from the predations of ordinary criminals… from home invaders to identity thieves… not to mention the heavily-armed lunatics and terrorists among them?  Or are they so frightened by everyday reality that they have and continue to surrender their liberties to overlords whose objectives are profit and power rather than protection?

An index which consists of anything other than crunched numbers becomes inherently subjective.  Can’t be otherwise!  We have to assign numerical values to intangibles as well as common bank accounts, and there will be plenty of cause for objection.  Some of the police and politicians would assign considerable weight to the probability of Mexicans hiding under Don and Dawn’s bed, certain gentlemen of the clergy might downgrade the satisfaction of Americans who see or hear about gays buying curtains or silverware in anticipation of their foul (but fabulous) nuptials.  One man’s God could be the cause of a neighbor breaking out the shooting irons, and Mayor Bloomberg and his ilk can blame the decline in America on the availability of triple-bacon cheeseburgers and big cups of Mountain Dew.

So what is a poor, confused Catfish to do but imitate other politicians… make compromises – as well as the occasional decision not to compromise (and leave critics fuming).

And these are the categories that made the final cut of the Index…

Money (personal) – the earnings, accumulated wealth and expenses of Don Jones and the Jones household.  Here is to be found the traditional Misery Index (unemployment plus inflation), as well as accountings of wages, profits, rents, private and public transfer payments etcetera.  Questions of equality are also included.  (45%)

Money (societal) – reflecting the health of the private and… for the most part… the public sector.  The national debt of the United States and its trade balance (or imbalance).  Don Jones’ confidence in government and the economy, as measured by the necessary evil of polls.  (15%)

Education – upon which the upwards or downwards mobility of Don Jr. and generations to come may be fairly assumed to rest.  Domestic and international standings in standardized tests, as well as problem-solving in key disciplines like science and engineering.  The dropout and college tuition rates.  (10%)

Health – primarily measured by life expectancy, infant mortality and the prevalence of certain diseases such as strokes, heart attacks, cancer and the such.  The costs of medical treatment, and subsequent impact on the overall status and equality of healthcare.  Here, too, are included environmental factors of a local, national and international scope… global warming, desertification, pollution. (10%)

Security – reflecting Don Jones’ safety and that of his family from attack by other human beings.  Here are to be found the indices on domestic crime and foreign-sponsored terror, as well as collateral issues such as incarceration rates.  (5%)

Freedom – as measures the inroads of the National Surveillance State worldwide and as a consequence of governmental decisions.  Also included here are indices of the integrity (or corruptability) of authorities in the private or public sector.  (5%)

Miscellaneous – as encompasses everything else under the sun (and even a few things not so, such as meteor strikes or dispatches from distant satellites).  This is clearly the most volatile sub-index, changing week to week, as it does, and the vast morass of social issues are found here – although many will not be tabulated due to the divisions already existing in the world that Don Jones inhabits.  (Examples include the likes of the Zimmerman trial and Texas abortion restrictions which benefit… if only vicariously… certain segments of the population while inflaming others.)  Instead, we focus on local and world developments upon which most people of sound mind agree… the highly-publicized abduction of small children from their homes will depress Don’s status (if only briefly) while their safe return and the capture of their pedophile captors will make America’s day.  Here is to be found similar “small stuff” as, unfortunately, tends to dominate far too much of our declining media… transitory events that are here today, gone next week, but do have effects on Don’s momentary content or discontent.  (10%)

Money (or its lack) doesn’t comprise one hundred percent of Don’s well-being… although if he has none, it might deserve a more exalted state.  After some reflection, we didn’t decide that personal monetary standards deserved even half of the weight of the Index… given that wealth inhabits, to one degree or another, all of the other standards – from the national debt to criminal activity and official corruption, both of which usually have the Almighty Dollar as root causes.

And, in order to trace the progress (or lack of it) through the past and future, the initial value of the Index has been set at 15,000, which is the approximate value of the Dow Jones Index as of July 16, 2013.  Thus, monetary factors affecting the lives of the Joneses are assigned a value of 6,750 points, broken down into lesser values representing the performance of sub-indices such as inflation, unemployment and incomes.  American issues, worth 15%, have been assigned a value of 2,250… equally divided between issues of the national debt as it impacts global and locally fiscal health and the private sector’s balance of trade.

Health and education have each been assigned 10%, or 5000 points – again, with smaller amounts attributable to sub-indices.  Security and liberty are worth 5%, or 2500 points and the miscellaneous issues that arise from day to day or week to week also have a value of 5000 points.  While some volatility can be expected here… which will enable the Don to vary with the Dow (if not exactly in sync!), adjustments will be conservatively managed and fleeting – except in rare instances of portentous developments such as an all-out war between Israel and its enemies as might plunge the Miscellaneous Index down to 4000, 3000 or even (if it goes nuclear) to zero… besides having an impact on most other categories.  Alternately, announcement of a cure for cancer might raise the Index by a thousand or more points, in addition to its impact on fiscal or health-related indices.

Many of the national and international databases are updated monthly, quarterly or even yearly.  So, the founding of a company based on new technology that provides a lot of jobs and improves the per-capita incomes and gross national product may not be fully tabulated until weeks or months later, long after the initial event.  A measure of the improvement (or decline) might be proffered in Miscellaneous, but the hard data will, as tends to happen, significantly lag behind the developments.

Today is, statistically, the hottest day of the year.  So keep cool – by next week, the Don Jones Index (which reflects the status of those who own no stock, as well as those who do) will begin ticking, and a broad new world will unfold before your eyes… one you might bless or curse, but cannot ignore.

 

 

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HERE’S THE FORMULA.  NEXT WEEK, WE ISSUE OUR FIRST RESULTS…

 

 

DON JONES INDEX – CHART of CATEGORIES w/ VALUE ADDED to EQUAL BASELINE of 15,000

(REFLECTS… approximately… DOW JONES INDEX of July, 2011)

 


 

DON JONES ECONOMIC. INDEX  (45% of total Index points)

             INCOME            (24%)

     Wages (p/c)             10%, or…        1500 points

     Equality                    5                     750

     Unemploy.                9                     1350

            WEALTH              (6%)         

     The Dow                   2                     300

     Home Valuations     2                     300

     Debt (Personal)        2                     300

         OUTGO           (15%)

     Inflation                    9                     1350

     Food                         2                     300

     Gas                           2                     300

     Taxes                        2                     300

 

UNITED STATES ECONOMIC INDEX  (15%)

   NATIONAL (5%)

         Income                   1                     150

      Expenditures          1                     150

      Debt (Cumulative)  3                    450

   GOVERNMENT    (5%)                

      Income                     1                    150

      Expends.                  1                    150

      Debt (Annual.)          3                    450

   BUSINESS                (5%)

     Exports                     1                     150

     Imports                     1                     150

     Trade bal.                 3                     450

 

EDUCATION INDEX        (10%)

   By World Standard    5                     750

   By Test Scores           2                     300

   Dropout Rate             2                     300

   Tuition                       1                     300

 

HEALTH INDEX                (10%)

   Life Expectancy         4                     600

   Costs                          2                     300

   Environmental          3                     450

   Natural Disasters      1                     150

 

SECURITY INDEX              (5%)

     Crime Rates             3                     450

     Prison Populations   1                     150

     Terrorism                 1                     150

 

FREEDOM INDEX            (5%)

     Freedom                   3                     450

     Corruption                1                     150

     World Peace            1                     150

 

TRANSIENT ISSUES        (10%)