THE DON JONES INDEX…

GAINS POSTED in GREEN

LOSSES POSTED in RED

  3/12/14…  15,076.06

     3/5/14…  15,121.73

   6/27/13…  15,000.00

 

(THE DOW JONES INDEX:   3/12… 16,316.64; 3/5… 16,359.57; 11/19/12… 12,592.22)

   

LESSON for MARCH 12, 2014

 

Well, the defeatist lobby’s on its high horse now, twittering that… now that Russia has taken the Crimea… we can all go out to lunch and eat some organic tofu salad because the crisis is over and Mr. Putin would never… never!... think of doing anything that would violate the mental sanctuary of the humane community.

On February 24th, Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel formally unveiled the department’s $496 billion budget for the 2015 fiscal year.  In shrinking the United States Army to its smallest size since 1940, the New York Times reported that Pentagon officials were willing to assume more risk the next time troops are called to war.

But assuming more risk, they acknowledged, meant that more of those troops would probably die.

“You have fewer troops, fewer ships, fewer planes,” Hagel admitted.  “Readiness is not the same standard. Of course there’s going to be risk.”

Two days later, the Times editors seconded Hagel’s decision.  “The truth is that the United States cannot afford the larger force indefinitely, and it doesn’t need it. The country is tired of large-scale foreign occupations and, in any case, Pentagon planners do not expect they will be necessary in the foreseeable future. Even with a smaller Army, America’s defenses will remain the world’s most formidable, especially given Mr. Hagel’s proposed increase in investment in special operations, cyberwarfare and rebalancing the American presence in Asia.”

Three days later, after a popular revolt ousted Ukraine’s unpopular President Yanukovych, Russian troops swarmed into the Crimea… Ukraine’s southernmost province and home to an ethnic Russian majority.

Europeans, including most NATO members, have been quick to distance themselves from the conflict, even as Russian President Vladimir Putin sent strong signals that Crimea was only the opening shot of Moscow’s aim to reassemble the Soviet Union, then absorb former satellite states into a greater Soviet Empire, finally to conquer the world itself.

Ukaraine’s acting Prime Minister, Arseniy P. Yatsenyuk, nervously said he was “convinced” Russia would not intervene militarily in eastern Ukraine, “since this would be the beginning of war and the end of all relations” with Russia.

"My feeling is that if this remains just Crimea, the Ukrainians will let it go for now," agreed Dmitry Gorenburg, Russia analyst at the US government-funded Center for Naval Analyses, part of the larger not-for-profit CNA Corporation.

"But if Russia looks like it's going to take the rest of eastern Ukraine, they will fight even if it means they know they will lose."

Diplomats have been doing what they do best… decrying and demurring. Foreign Secretary William Hague called Russian action a 'potentially grave threat' to Ukraine's sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity.  “I’m concerned about developments in Crimea,” twittered Anders Fogh Rasmussen, secretary general of NATO. “I urge Russia not to take any action that can escalate tension or create misunderstanding.”

And… predictably… U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon urged Russian President Vladimir Putin to 'urgently engage in direct dialogue with the authorities' in Kiev.

So what of the Euros?

With Germany too worried over its gas to move beyond paying fifteen billion dollars in Russogelt to Kiev as conscience money (and tugging the beard of Uncle Cheapskate, who’s tossed only a bil into the pot to stave off Ukrainian bankruptcy), the EU has been floundering.  'Everything must be done to avoid outside intervention and the risk of a highly dangerous escalation,' Monsieur Hollande's office said in a statement to neighboring foreign ministers.  How French!

The Swiss, playing to their strength, have announced they’ve launched a criminal investigation against Yanukovych and his son Aleksander over 'aggravated money laundering.'  Given the deposed dictator’s predilection for $30 million chandeliers, there’s probably a lot of swag in those hidden bank accounts for some astute banker to wrap his claws around.

Others whose escape from the Soviet Union is more recent, hence more memorable, are taking a dimmer view of the occupation.  While Hungarians, who… wrote Paul Craig Roberts in The Economist… expected “streets of gold” upon joining the West found themselves indebted to the IMF, instead, and are worried about a tidal wave of refugees should Russian troops occupy Kharkiv, then cross the Don, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said the Ukrainian conflict could accelerate Warsaw's efforts to modernize the army and gain energy independence. 

Zygimantas Pavilionis, Lithuania's ambassador to the United States, told NPR that “what is happening with this invasion, some people say the end of the history.  If you have a powerful state who is rejecting the post-World War II order and is marching in Europe with its armies, defending the ethnic rights, well, I heard it from Hitler in '39. You know, my country was sacrificed between Stalin and Hitler then. So I'm looking to American friends. I really admire the leadership of America in this situation but this is about also American responsibility.”

The Turks, meanwhile, are waiting and watching… particularly for any signs of persecution of Turkish-speaking Tatars who, at about 13%, comprise the peninsula’s third-largest ethnic population.

“Turkey's dependence on Russia for around half of its natural gas imports and historic Turkish fears of the Russians will temper Ankara's reaction to Moscow's takeover of Crimea,” wrote Soner Cagaptay and James Jeffery of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. “In case of NATO action in the Black Sea, for instance, Turkey would balance its NATO affiliation with its treaty obligations [with Russia],” referring to a1936 treaty known as the Montreux Convention, which limits the size and number of warships not based in Black Sea ports that can enter the body of water, and determines how long they can remain there.

Do American responsibilities and treaty obligations give President Obama has no choice but to drag the United States into World War III?

Technically, some observers admit, yes.

Back in 1994, wrote the Daily Mail, UK, Bill Clinton, John Major, Boris Yeltsin and Leonid Kuchma (then-rulers of the USA, UK, Russia and Ukraine), agreed to the The Budapest Memorandum as part of the denuclearization of former Soviet republics after the dissolution of the Soviet Union.

One assumes that even Mr. Putin would have entertained second thoughts about invading a nuclear-armed neighbor.

Sir Tony Brenton, who served as British Ambassador from 2004 to 2008, said that war could be an option “if we do conclude the [Budapest] Memorandum (which promised to protect Ukraine's borders, in return for Ukraine giving up its nuclear weapons) is legally binding.”

In a BBC radio interview, Mr. Brenton said: “If indeed this is a Russian invasion of Crimea and if we do conclude the [Budapest] Memorandum is legally binding then it's very difficult to avoid the conclusion that we're going to go to war with Russia.”

Anti-war factions allege the Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances, signed on February 5, 1994, is not a formal treaty, but rather, a diplomatic document.  “It is binding in international law, but that doesn't mean it has any means of enforcement,” Barry Kellman (a professor of law and director of the International Weapons Control Center at DePaul University's College of Law) told Radio Free Europe.

Most pundits doubt that NATO and Russia would go to thermonuclear war based on legalities… some scoffing that treaties weren’t worth the paper that they were written on.  “Ask the Native Americans and the Poles,” was a typical response. 

The Russians, meanwhile, are letting their fingers on the triggers do the talking.

Underscoring the extent to which the crisis has become part of Russia’s broader grievances against the West, Reuters further reported that Russian warhawks are focused on Mr. Obama and the United States as much as on the fate of Russians in Ukraine, hoping to goad him into more unsupported rhetoric and, again, playing the Nazi card (as detailed in last week’s Index) with the West comparing  events in Crimea with Nazi Germany's 1938 annexation of Czechoslovakia's German-speaking Sudetenland, followed months later by the rest of the country and the next year by Poland, sparking the Second World War.  Moscow’s hardliners assert that Western Ukrainians were Fascists during their Great Patriotic War and remain Fascists today.

“All this is being done under the guise of democracy, as the West says,” Nikolai I. Ryzhkov, one member of Parliament, said during the debate. “They tore apart Yugoslavia, routed Egypt, Libya, Iraq and so on, and all this under the false guise of peaceful demonstrations.” He added, “So we must be ready in case they will unleash the dogs on us.”

Yuri L. Vorobyov, the body’s deputy chairman, said Mr. Obama’s speeches have been a cause for Russia to act. “I believe that these words of the U.S. president are a direct threat,” he said. “He has crossed the red line and insulted the Russian people.”

Inevitably, the Fascist question has drawn anti-Semites… left and right… into the fray.  Are the troubles in Crimea simply another manifestation of the immortal worldwide Zionist plot?  Of course!... say the usual suspects from the Peanut Gallrey.

The sufferings of gentiles,” boasts a blogger, Avi, “will not cause the members of the fraternity who controls the US today to lose any sleep. Actually, the one desired potential development as far as Israel and its supporters is concerned is the possibility that several hundred of thousands Russian and Ukrainian Jews will flee to Israel because of the turmoil.”

“WWIII will be fought because of Israeli and Zionist manipulations,” predicts “Dunthorpe” on thehill.com, “and while the Zionists may very likely sacrifice the Jews once again trust that nothing that happens will come as surprise to the Zionists. Right now the EU wants to get their hands o the Ukraine so that he bankers can steal their assets, undermine their Sovereignty while the IMF and world bank bury them in debt. Putin knows exactly what’s going on and has acted accordingly and I believe that he will do whatever it takes to keep the parasites out of the Ukraine.”

To which “bonaventure

 candes” replies that, on the other hand, the Crimean crisis might be an anti-Zionist plot, or a smokescreen behind which powers other than Washington, Moscow or the EU are making a bid for world conquest and glory, predicting:  “(1) The destruction of Israel (if there is a war, Iran will use the opportunity to attack Israel); (2) The rise of Islam (if there is a war, the Islamists are going to fill-in the void left by fallen decrepit regimes); or, alternately, (3) The fall of America (if there is a war, China will suddenly demand America to repay its debt, and we have an overnight economic collapse).

Others have noted the Chinese and Iranian warships creeping ever closer to America’s coastline.

LTJG Brett Davis, a U.S. Navy Surface Warfare Officer, predicts that “…the Chinese People’s Liberation Army-Navy (PLAN) will deploy ballistic missile submarines on deterrence patrols in the Pacific Ocean later this year, placing them within striking distance of Alaska, Hawaii, and the western United States,” while Hillster Phil Blank even concluded that the whole scenario is a scenario cooked up by the geniuses in Pyongyang… "Ukraine and Russia is a cover and a distraction while N. Korea recently test launched 3 missiles!"

 “If Ukraine develops an administration that is in fact anti-Russian then this can very easily go from a cold war to something a little bit more hot – but it’s a war between nuclear powers,” Bill Jones, with Executive Intelligence Review newsmagazine from Washington, said in an interview with Press TV on Sunday.

The analyst argued that Russian citizens and the Russian-speaking citizens in Ukraine’s semi-autonomous Crimea region feel threatened by the new administration in Kiev, giving Russia “a responsibility to come to their rescue.”

“Given the fact that much of… [Ukraine’s] opposition consists of openly fascist parties… it does seem that the Russians have justification in measures that are being taken,” the analyst Bill Jones, with Executive Intelligence Review added.

There, too, is the belief among many observers that Americans… Barack Obama in particular… are not manly men comparable to the Russian troops, or to their leader.  Xavier Lerma of the now-anti-Communist Pravda calls Barry a drug addict, a weak- kneed, lying, war mongering punk and (worst of all!) a “community organizer”.  (Nor does his Republican opposition, nor the American media escape Pravda’s provocations.)

“The western media prefers to shriek like spoiled brats against Putin.  "Evil dictator!" they shout, while they themselves have rejected the Holy Spirit and proudly wear the seal of the Antichrist. They laugh, but God is not mocked. Christ is Victorious in Russia where homosexuality is still a sin; blasphemy a crime; where crosses and holy images are in public view.

Stateside, another of Time’s more cynical respondents to Hagel’s proposal posts “It matters little what cuts happen...we could see an Army made up of 10 guys, with maybe a Girl or Gay Guy, with  BB Guns as our entire Military and none of the savings will ever be seen in your Tax Bill...all savings will be spent somewhere else by whoever you Elect.”

Seems things always devolve downwards into God (and those pesky Jews), gays and guns.

The crisis has also brought to the fore that oddball character as first surfaced immediately after the Big O replaced the Not-So-Big W… the right-wing peacenik, a paleo-Isolationist creature not only disgusted with America’s first Black President, but with most of his opposition, too. 

Some conservatives, alleges Justin Raimondo of Freedom Outpost, “…seem to have crossed the line and followed behind Obama rather than lead from in front of him, men like the Speaker of the House John Boehner, who at times cries like a baby. What have we as a people done to allow a man who cries like a baby be a leader? However, we cannot just stop here; let us call into play the Vietnam Veteran Senator John McCain, who seems willing to jump the fence like a lost sheep. With leaders like these, we have become our own enemy!”

Reaching back into history, a spokesman for the once-notorious Lyndon LaRouche campaigns asks: “Will the American people and the U.S. Congress act now to remove Obama from office before "the costs" he warned of tonight blow up into the thermonuclear confrontation that Lyndon LaRouche has warned about?”

“I could see this one from Alaska,” seconds Alaska’s princess of hindsight, Sarah Palin.

Russia is just being opportunistic,” suggests Black Sid of Birmingham, UK.  “They're using the crisis to swoop in and annex Crimea before Ukraine joins the EU. Do you really think they're gonna give up Crimea to the EU when they have their Black Fleet docked there? Big gamble though, Ukraine is effectively a protectorate of the US/UK (a previous agreement for disposing of its nuclear missiles). Could be a win for Russia or World War 3 - step right up, step right up, place your bets!!!”

“Let's say goodbye to Ukraine as an independent country,” concludes a typical netbeef.  “We won't go to war with Russia; we would be insane to.”

But peace, like a budget deal, requires two sides to concur, whereas wars can (and usually are) started by only one.  In the event that something “insane” breaks out, how do the major players currently stack up… and how might things differ if Sec. Hagel gets his military cutbacks?

We’ll take a closer look at that in next week’s Lesson.

Meanwhile, Don Jones had one of his worst weeks in a long time – even worse than last week!  Just about every indicator was down, except for government revenues (taxes) and the weather (bad, but not terrible!).  Funny thing, though, we all seemed happier this week – maybe because we were all still alive, despite the politicians.  As for the increase in unemployment, the experts said it was a good thing because it meant more people had resumed looking for work (the percentage of “official” unemployed much greater than that of everybody, counted or not).  So it wasn’t that bad of a week… again, if you believe the experts…

________

THE DON JONES INDEX

 

 

CHART of CATEGORIES w/ VALUE ADDED to EQUAL BASELINE of 15,000.00

(REFLECTING… approximately… DOW JONES INDEX of June 27, 2013)

 


See a further explanation of categories here…

Simply recording gains or losses is deceptive, because some of the indices here represent GOOD things (like incomes and life expectancy) while others represent BAD things (unemployment, terror).  So, increases in good things and decreases in bad things are considered GOOD (and are depicted in GREEN) – decreases in good things and increases in the bad are considered BAD (and are depicted in RED).

The sum of good things, less the sum of bad things, equals the gain (or loss) to Don Jones.

 

DON JONES’ PERSONAL ECONOMIC INDEX  (45% of total Index points)

INCOME

(24%)

BASE 6/27/13

RECKONINGS

   LAST      CHANGE    NEXT

DON         3/5

DON         3/12

OUR SOURCE(S)

Wages (per cap.)

10%

1500 points

1/1/14

+0.1%

3/5/14

1513.96

1513.96

 http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-states/wages   10.31 nd

Equality

5

750

9/10/13

n/d

?

711.55

711.55

http://stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx?DataSetCode=IDD  .038 nd

Unemployment

9

450

2//14

+1.5%

Mar. 2014

531.39

523.46

http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000000   6.6 6.7

Official

450

2/26/14

+5.2%

3/19/14

532.03

504.62

http://www.usdebtclock.org/         10404

Unofficial

450

2/26/14

+1.5%

3/19/14

541.87

534.60

http://www.usdebtclock.org/          19531

WEALTH

6%

 

 

 

 

 

 Dow Jones 

2

300

2/26/14

+0.26%

3/19/14

305.3

304.5

Dow Jones index  16316.64

9Home Valuations          

2

300

2/26/14

sales -5.1 price -4.6

3/20/14

169.77  181.12

169.77  181.12

http://www.realtor.org/topics/existing-home-sales    -5.1% nd http://www.realtor.org/research-and-statistics 188.9 nd

Debt (Personal)     

2

300

2/19/14

+.07%

3/19/14

287.53

287.33

http://www.newyorkfed.org/research/data indicators/household index.html  and http://www.usdebtclock.org/         51633

OUTGO

15%

(See a  below)

 

 

 

 

Inflation                   

9

1350

2/26/14

+0.1%

Feb. 2014

1335.61

1335.61

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm   0.1 nd

Food

2%

300

2/26/14

+0.1%

Feb. 2014

296.85

296.85

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm   0.1 nd

Gas

2%

300

2/26/14

-0.1%

Feb. 2014

265.74

265.74

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm   -1.0 nd

 

Taxes

2%

300

variable

n/d

?

300

300

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

UNITED STATES ECONOMIC INDEX  (15%)

ANNUAL

5%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 Income (per cap.)

1%

150

4/23/12

n/d

Yearly

151.08

151.08

http://bber.unm.edu/econ/us-pci.htm

Expends. (cnsmr.)      

1%

150

12/24/13

n/d

Feb. 2014

149.70

149.70

http://www.bls.gov/cpi 

 U.S. Debt

3%

450

3/5/14

+0.43%

3/19/14

431.22

429.35

http://www.usdebtclock.org/   17409 17485

CUMULATIVE

5%

 

 

 

 

 

Revenues

1%

150

3/5/14

+0.17%

3/19/14

161.18

161.46

http://www.usdebtclock.org/       2866 2871

Expenditures

1%

150

3/5/14

+0.06%

3/19/14

150.86

150.77

http://www.usdebtclock.org/       3506 3508

Total Debt 

3%

450

3/5/14

+0.64%

3/19/14

435.44

432.66

http://www.usdebtclock.org/         60936 61328

WORLD TRADE

5%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Exports

1%

150

3/5/14

+0.63%

Apr. 2014

154.56

155.53

http://www.census.gov/foreign-     trade/statistics/highlights/congressional.html    1913 192.5 J

Imports 

1%

150

3/5/14

+0.69%

Apr. 2014

147.41

146.39

http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/statistics/highlights/congressional.html      2300 2316 J

Trade Deficit

1%

150

3/5/14

+0.26%

Apr. 2014

153.52

153.13

http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/statistics/highlights/congressional.html     387* 390 391*

Foreign Debt 

2%

300

3/5/14

-0.01%

3/19/14

310.30

310.28

http://www.usdebtclock.org/     5957.5 5957.1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EDUCATION INDEX        (10%)

World Standard

4%

600

2010

n/d

Yearly

599

599

Test Scores

2%

300

2010

n/d

Yearly +

300

300

 

Dropout Rate

2%

300

2010

n/d

Yearly +

300

300

 

Costs

2%

300

8/15/12

n/d

?

 286.36

286.36

http://nces.ed.gov/fastfacts/display.asp?id=76

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

HEALTH INDEX        (10%)

Life Expectancy

4%

600

2012

n/d

unknown

600

600

n/d

Medical Costs

2%

300

2/26/14

n/d

3/14

297.30

297.30

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm   -.8 nd +0.2

Environment

3%

450

3/5/14

 +0.1%

3/19/14

442.24

442.68

    Well hey!  Last week, pollution in China was reportedly so bad that they were considering doing something.  Now, it seems they will… at least in talking about it…

Natural Disasters

1%

150

3/5/14

+0.2%

3/19/14

136.06

136.33

   6.8 quake in California?  No big deal!  Drought ending rain and only a little Eastern snow?  Big deal!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

SECURITY INDEX           (5%)1204

Crime Rates

3%

450

2013

n/d

unknown

447.80

447.80

  n/d

Prison Population

1%

150

2013

n/d

unknown

155.15

155.15

   n/d

Terrorism

1%

150

3/5/14

-0.2%

3/19/14

146.68

146.97

Funny how jingoists here decry Al Qaeda, then seem glum that Ukrainians haven’t blown up gas lines.  Now, if someone would figure out what happened to the Malaysian plane

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

LIBERTY INDEX   (5%)

Freedom

3%

450

3/5/14

n/c

As occurs

449.30

449.30

No further Soviet Russian incursions into Ukraine, no signs of massacres or mass jailings in occupied Crimea.

Corruption

1%

150

11/26/13

n/d

As occurs

170.28

170.28

   n/c

World Peace

1%

150

3/5/14

n/c

3/19/14

141.94

141.94

Plenty of jaw jaw, not much in the way of war war.  And that’s   

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TRANSIENT INDEX    (10%)

All

10%

1000

3/5/14

+0.2%

3/19/14

978.00

979.96

Instead of the end of the world, Don Jones had the mystery in Malaysia to distract and entertain him.  But what if the plane was raptured?

 

SUMMARY:

The Don Jones Index for the week of March 5th through March 11th was DOWN 45.67 points.

 

The Don Jones Index is sponsored by the Coalition for a New Consensus: retired Congressman and Independent Presidential candidate Jack “Catfish” Parnell, Chairman; Brian Doohan, Administrator/Editor.  The CNC denies, emphatically, allegations that the organization, as well as its officers (including former Congressman Parnell, environmentalist/America Firster Austin Tillerman and cosmetics CEO Rayna Finch) and references to Parnell’s works, “Entropy and Renaissance” and “The Coming Kill-off” are fictitious or mere pawns in the e-serial “Black Helicopters” - and promise swift, effective legal action against all parties promulgating this and other such slanders.

 

Comments, complaints, donations (especially SUPERPAC donations):  feedme@generisis.com

 

*  Trade figures for December were adjusted.

 

GOODS BY CATEGORY (CENSUS BASIS)

The December to January increase in exports of goods reflected increases in industrial supplies and materials ($1.2 billion), capital goods ($0.4 billion), and consumer goods ($0.2 billion). Decreases occurred in foods, feeds, and beverages ($0.8 billion); other goods ($0.3 billion); and automotive vehicles, parts, and engines ($0.2 billion).

Top Increases for Exports of Industrial Supplies and Materials
(Billions of Dollars)
Top Increases for Industrial Supplies and Materials (Billions of Dollars)

The December to January increase in imports of goods reflected increases in industrial supplies and materials ($3.7 billion); capital goods ($0.3 billion); and foods, feeds, and beverages ($0.2 billion). Decreases occurred in automotive vehicles, parts, and engines ($1.4 billion); consumer goods ($1.0 billion); and other goods ($0.1 billion).

Top Increases for Imports of Industrial Supplies and Materials
(Billions of Dollars)
Top Increases for Industrial Supplies and Materials (Billions of Dollars)

SERVICES BY CATEGORY

Exports of services increased $0.2 billion from December to January. Increases in other private services ($0.3 billion), which includes items such as business, professional, and technical services, insurance services, and financial services, and in royalties and license fees ($0.1 billion) were partly offset by decreases in passenger fares ($0.1 billion), in travel ($0.1 billion), and in other transportation ($0.1 billion), which includes freight and port services. Changes in the other categories of services exports were relatively small.

Imports of services decreased $0.4 billion from December to January. The decrease was more than accounted for by decreases in travel ($0.2 billion) and in passenger fares ($0.2 billion). Partly offsetting these decreases was an increase in other private services ($0.1 billion). Changes in the other categories of services imports were relatively small.